Reply #82: To be fair, a lot [View All]

Most speculation after '96 focused on him. In his '98 reelection, he openly acknowledged thinking about running for President.

It was NOT a surprise.

But, the GOP is far more establishment - you can usually pick out a candidate that they will nominate. The Democrats almost never nominate the person they people speculate they'll nominate. The exception was (sort of) Kerry this year, but even there, most speculation had focused on Al Gore, and then after Kerry's brief frontrunnership it became Dean.

Basically, Dem primaries are completely unpredictable, Republican ones are very top-down, very easy to predict.

'08's harder, but I stick with my Frist prediction.