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They lose the arithematic argument. The math argument doesn't exist. The exit poll numbers are based on assumptions that have to reflect reality for them to be realistic.
I can't defend Mitofsky's assumptions. (I'll try to summarize and post some of his methodology from past polls if I can.) I don't even know his assumptions. I haven't seen them stated anywhere. Some we can make reasonable guesses at.
BTW, my favorite example of exit polls: the 1990 gubernatorial elections. Feinstein had a "healthy lead". The California Poll had predicted a Wilson win. VRS subscribers took the exit polls seriously; it wasn't until 10-11 pm that the exit polls were "weighted", and predicted a narrow Wilson victory. One problem: "exit polls tend to under-represent older voters, who are more likely to refuse to participate, and who tend to be more conservative and more likely to vote for the Republican candidate." The media people fought among themselves--many wanted to call a Feinstein win. They didn't know "VRS does not weight its preliminary results. The consortium will let the subscribers, like KRON-TV, see what these results are, but they are the raw data. And they are not to be taken seriously. Only later will they be weighted, and only then are they useful for predicting the results."
The saner folk prevailed; nobody called the election until later that night.
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