THE ODDS: TAKING THE EXIT POLL "CLUSTER" FACTOR INTO EFFECT [View All]

I have added the 30% Exit Poll "cluster" factor to
the calculated MOE, as some have suggested, to determine the
number of states for which the vote tallies exceeded the exit
poll in favor of Bush. In my original anaysis, I determined
that 16 states exceeded the MOE for Bush, based on the
calculated MOE.

Assuming a 30% Cluster Factor, number of states: 10
The Probability of this occurrence: .0000477%.
The Odds: 

********** 1 out of 2.1 MILLION ************

But .... exit polls have been historically accurate to within
1%, so we are being VERY conservative here. Therefore, I still
maintain that the odds are of the magnitude originally
calculated:  

********* One out of 13.5 TRILLION ***********

But 1 out of 2 million or 1 out of 13.5 trillion.
What's the difference? 

Here is the probability/odds that N states would exceed the
MOE:

N	Prob	 Odds:1 out of
		
1	72.5061600%	1
2	36.5526770%	3
4	3.8533663%	26
6	0.1676323%	597
9	0.0004484%	223,016
		
10	0.0000477%	2,098,096
		
12	0.0000004%	262,019,924
14	0.0000000%	49,652,431,051
16	0.0000000%	13,544,660,533,445


Here is the Deviation Table

St	Size	Exit	Vote	Diff	StD	MoE	Prob   >MoE?	Favor
DE	770	58.50%	53.54%	-4.96%	2.39%	4.68%	1.89	yes	Bush
NH	1849	55.40%	50.51%	-4.89%	1.54%	3.02%	0.08	yes	Bush
VT	685	65.00%	60.20%	-4.80%	2.53%	4.97%	2.92		Bush
SC	1735	46.00%	41.41%	-4.59%	1.59%	3.12%	0.20	yes	Bush
NE	785	36.76%	32.32%	-4.44%	2.37%	4.64%	3.04		Bush

AK	910	40.50%	36.08%	-4.42%	2.20%	4.31%	2.23	yes	Bush
AL	730	41.00%	37.00%	-4.00%	2.45%	4.81%	5.16		Bush
NC	2167	48.00%	44.00%	-4.00%	1.42%	2.79%	0.25	yes	Bush
NY	1452	63.00%	59.18%	-3.82%	1.74%	3.41%	1.42	yes	Bush
CT	872	58.50%	55.10%	-3.40%	2.25%	4.40%	6.52		Bush

RI	809	64.00%	60.61%	-3.39%	2.33%	4.57%	7.28		Bush
MA	889	66.00%	62.63%	-3.37%	2.22%	4.36%	6.47		Bush
PA	1930	54.35%	51.00%	-3.35%	1.51%	2.96%	1.33	yes	Bush
MS	798	43.26%	40.00%	-3.26%	2.35%	4.60%	8.27		Bush
OH	1963	52.10%	49.00%	-3.10%	1.50%	2.93%	1.92	yes	Bush

FL	2846	50.51%	47.47%	-3.03%	1.24%	2.44%	0.74	yes	Bush
MN	2178	54.50%	51.52%	-2.98%	1.42%	2.79%	1.79	yes	Bush
UT	798	30.50%	27.55%	-2.95%	2.35%	4.60%	10.46		Bush
ID	559	33.50%	30.61%	-2.89%	2.81%	5.50%	15.16		Bush
AZ	1859	47.00%	44.44%	-2.56%	1.54%	3.02%	4.83		Bush

VA	1000	47.96%	45.45%	-2.50%	2.10%	4.11%	11.62		Bush
LA	1669	44.50%	42.42%	-2.08%	1.62%	3.18%	10.05		Bush
IL	1392	57.00%	55.00%	-2.00%	1.78%	3.48%	13.03		Bush
WI	2223	52.50%	50.51%	-1.99%	1.41%	2.76%	7.81		Bush
WV	1722	45.25%	43.43%	-1.82%	1.60%	3.13%	12.74		Bush

NM	1951	51.30%	49.49%	-1.81%	1.50%	2.94%	11.47		Bush
CO	2515	49.10%	47.47%	-1.63%	1.32%	2.59%	10.96		Bush
IN	926	41.00%	39.39%	-1.61%	2.18%	4.27%	23.06		Bush
GA	1536	43.00%	41.41%	-1.59%	1.69%	3.32%	17.44		Bush
MO	2158	47.50%	46.00%	-1.50%	1.43%	2.80%	14.67		Bush

NJ	1520	55.00%	53.54%	-1.46%	1.70%	3.33%	19.46		Bush
WA	2123	54.95%	53.54%	-1.41%	1.44%	2.82%	16.37		Bush
IA	2502	50.65%	49.49%	-1.15%	1.33%	2.60%	19.20		Bush
AR	1402	46.60%	45.45%	-1.15%	1.77%	3.47%	25.89		Bush
KY	1034	41.00%	40.00%	-1.00%	2.06%	4.04%	31.39		Bush

OK	1539	35.00%	34.00%	-1.00%	1.69%	3.31%	27.71		Bush
MI	2452	52.50%	51.52%	-0.98%	1.34%	2.63%	23.11		Bush
NV	2116	49.35%	48.48%	-0.87%	1.44%	2.83%	27.41		Bush
ME	1968	54.75%	54.08%	-0.66%	1.50%	2.93%	32.86		Bush
MD	1000	57.00%	56.57%	-0.43%	2.10%	4.11%	41.80		Bush

DC	795	91.00%	90.91%	-0.09%	2.35%	4.61%	48.46		Bush
MT	640	39.76%	39.80%	0.04%	2.62%	5.14%	50.54		Kerry
OR	1064	51.20%	52.00%	0.80%	2.03%	3.99%	65.30		Kerry
HI	499	53.30%	54.55%	1.25%	2.97%	5.82%	66.26		Kerry
TX	1671	37.00%	38.38%	1.38%	1.62%	3.18%	80.31		Kerry

TN	1774	41.50%	43.00%	1.50%	1.57%	3.09%	82.96		Kerry
CA	1919	54.00%	55.56%	1.56%	1.51%	2.97%	84.79		Kerry
SD	1495	37.76%	39.39%	1.63%	1.72%	3.36%	82.92		Kerry
ND	649	34.00%	36.36%	2.36%	2.60%	5.10%	81.80		Kerry
KS	654	35.00%	37.37%	2.37%	2.59%	5.08%	82.00		Kerry
									
Average	1450	49.18%	47.38%	-1.80%	1.89%	3.70%	24.11		Bush
Median	1507.5	49.23%	47.47%	-1.81%	1.71%	3.35%	12.88		Bush