CALCULATING KERRY'S POPULAR VOTE BASED ON THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL [View All]

2000.......BUSH KERRY NADER 
....  2004 2000 2004 2004 
NoVote(17%) 39% n/a 59% 1% 
Gore  (38%) 8% n/a 91% 1% 
Bush  (41%) 90% n/a 9% 0% 
Other (4%) 13% n/a 65% 16% 


Assume 100 million voted in 2000 (actually there were a few
million more, but let's keep it simple):
1)Gore got 48.5 million, Bush 48 million, the rest to Nader et
al.

2 Let's assume 20 million new voters, for a total of 120
million
Kerry gets 59%, Bush 39% (Kerry gets 3 out of 5) or Kerry gets
12 out of the 20 million. Bush gets 8 million.
   That's a net Kerry gain of 4 million votes

3) Kerry got 65% (2 million) of the 3 million who voted for
Nader et all. Bush got 13% or 0.5 million.
   That's a net Kerry gain of 1.5 million votes

4) Assume the rest of the voters voted as they did in 2000.

Total net Kerry gain: 4+ 1.5 = 5.5 million votes.
Add 5.5 million to the .50 million Gore margin.

************ Kerry wins by 6 million votes *****************

Therefore, assuming 120 million voted, this is the split:

Kerry: 63 million (52.5%, Bush: 57 million (47.5%)
Deduct 1.0% for the third party vote (split between Bush &
Kerry).

Final Vote:
Kerry 52% 
Bush 47% 
Other 1%