Reply #12: Some unbiased critiques of the plots. althecat, important please read. [View All]

Actually, I am biased because I am one of those people who are hoping that massive fraud is proven. But if we're gonna do this, let's do it right, lest the freepers prove us wrong, laugh at us, and shove our analyses to our faces.

I think that the value which is plotted in the original graph, i.e. the "redshift" is a bit misleading. A little algebra will explain what I am trying to say. The redshift, as I understand it, is defined as the difference between the Bush lead given by the actual votes and the Bush lead given by the exit polls. So, for example, in the case of Delaware, using the data listed in scoop, the redshift is:

redshift DE = (46 - 53) - (41.5 - 58.5) = -7 + 17 = 10

However, what I think should be plotted is the difference between the Bush actual votes and the Bush exit poll value, which I will call the Bush gain. The reason why I think the redshift is misleading is because the redshift doubles the Bush gain and, furthermore, contains the third party share of the votes. Here is the proof: Let

VotesBush = Bush actual votes (%)
VotesKerry = Kerry actual votes (%)
VotesThird = Third party candidates actual votes (%)
ExitBush = Bush exit poll data (%)
ExitKerry = Kerry exit poll data (%)

Then,

(1) redshift = (VotesBush - VotesKerry) - (ExitBush - ExitKerry)

Rearranging terms, we get

(2) redshift = (VotesBush - ExitBush) + (ExitKerry - VotesKerry)

Now, looking at the scoop data, the sum of the Bush and Kerry votes does not always equal 100%, presumably because the difference went to third party candidates. However, the Bush and Kerry exit poll data always seem to add up to 100%, presumably because the exit poll survey did not include third party candidates. In equation form, this means

(3) VotesBush + VotesKerry + VotesThird = ExitBush + ExitKerry = 100%

So, from equation (3), we get:

(4) VotesBush - ExitBush + VotesThird = ExitKerry - VotesKerry

Substituting the left hand side of equation (4) into equation (2),
we get

(5) redshift = (VotesBush - ExitBush) + (VotesBush - ExitBush + VotesThird)

In other words,

(6) redshift = 2*(VotesBush - ExitBush) + VotesThird

So equation (6) shows that the redshift is twice the Bush gain PLUS the third party share of votes. In my opinion, this is misleading. Because what we really want to study is the Bush gain in the actual votes compared to the exit polls, and not twice this value. And we also do not want to include the third party share of votes in the redshift. In other words, the redshift plot approximately DOUBLES the actual Bush gain.

My second critique is that the graphs should also plot the margin of error of the exit polls. I think that this is but the responsible thing to do. And I think it is also the responsible thing to do to redo the plots to reflect the correct numbers.

Thanks for your attention.