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Assume we flip a coin 50 times
What is the probability it will turn up heads at least 41 times?
n= number of coin flips:50
Probability of the coin turning up Heads:50%
Let's calculate the probability that the number of heads in the 50 flips is at least 41.
Solution:
Using the Excel function, we calculate the probability:
Probability = 1-BINOMDIST(41,50,50%,TRUE)
Prob (number of heads is at least 41) = 0.000058%
or 1 out of 1,718,869
Fact:
The actual vote percentage for Bush exceeded his exit poll percentage in 41 out of 50 states.
Question:
What is the probability that this would occur due to chance alone?
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