11. Actually, the payback time for a home solar electric installation...
...is only 4-5 years right now. Much less for a solar water preheater. And there are products in the pipeline that will move the payback point down considerably. I know of a very successful installation here in cloudy Chicago.
However, you are correct about the waste costs of other forms of power, but since those mostly don't have to be paid for by the utility they don't exist for the utility. If we could find a way to charge them back, things would change. But the decommissioning costs are still a real issue. A thermal plant can simply be scrapped.
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