It's hard to say how voters would have treated the Republican party in the USA following a defeat under Lincoln's leadership. It may well have killed that party in its infancy. However; the Democratic Party would very likely have prospered in the South. Practically all the secessionists were Democrats and support for slavery was a major part of the party's platform at the time. In the North the Copperheads may well have had a political ascendancy which would have ensured Democratic dominance for a long time.
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