Dean and Gephardt fight for 1st place with Kerry fading in 3rd place and Edwards surging for 4th [View All]

This was the Iowa polling from 4 years ago. Many believed it was already a done deal - Gephardt and Dean were locked in a close fight and the winner would cruise to the nomination as Kerry faded and Edwards remained too unknown.

See http://www.thenation.com/blogs/thebeat?pid=1173 ("Dean leading Gephardt 25-23 percent, with Kerry in third place at 14 percent. But the real news was that Edwards had moved up to 13 percent, just one point behind Kerry.")

Just a reminder of the limited value of polling this early. Don't expect any second tier candidates to jump into contention, but don't doubt that Obama, Hillary, and Edwards will be trading off for the lead in the early caucus and primary states between now and February (when the nomination will be over before I - and most of us - get to vote).