A hurricane Danny on track to hit from NJ to Boston in 48 hours.. [View All]

Take it from someone who has been through Opel, Charley, France and Jeanne - hurricanes are no joke take them seriously.

A cat 2 hurricane hitting Manhattan would have the same flooding effect as a cat 4 hitting Miami and the bridges, tunnels, subways and power will all go down if there is a direct hit. Lower Manhattan would flood to the second story.

Worse yet, hurricanes accelerate rapidly as they move northward. Whereas we Floridians usually get several DAYS warning, a hurricane striking NYC will move from about Cape Hatteras NC to Manhattan in 6 to 12 HOURS!

The Great Hurricane of 1938 that hit Long Island and Connecticutt killed 600-800 people and nearly drowned movie actress Katherine Hepburn. That storm covered about 400 miles from North Carolina to landfall in about 6 hours. There hasn't been a major storm strike the area directly since and according to the archaelogical records, the northeast is overdue - they have struck on average every 75 years in the last 1000 years.

Likewise Boston, Long Island and Connecticut are all at great risk to such storms particularly since they so rarely have them.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0509W5_NL+gif/143059W5_NL_sm.gif

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/hurricane_future.html

What's In Store For New York's Future?

According to the United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project:


16% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in 2009. Normal value is 15%.

10% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a hurricane in 2009. Normal value is 9%.

5% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more) in 2009. Normal value is 4%.

>99.9% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in the next 50 years.

99.4% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a hurricane in the next 50 years.
90% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more) in the next 50 years.

A major obstacle to overcome is public complacency. Approximately 78.5% of current New York State coastal residents have never experienced a major hurricane (Hughes). One must remember that in 1938, Long Island was mostly undeveloped. The next time a major hurricane hits, it will be impacting a highly-urbanized region. The last two hurricanes were mild in comparison to the Great Hurricane of 1938. August 19, 1991, Hurricane Bob (category 2) brushed the eastern tip of Long Island and moved into southeastern New England. Because most of Long Island was on the western side of the storm, winds were category 1 strength and the storm surge was minimal.
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http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/hurricane_future.html