If Brown wins, the Senate Bill probably is dead. But, real HCR lives, if Obama leads it. [View All]

The Senate Bill (which is not HCR) would die if Brown wins. I think it's unlikely the House will vote for the Senate Bill, despite intense pressure from some of the more conservative House leaders, and the DLC BlueDogs who run the Senate and the Political Department at the White House. But, if we lose the 60 vote majority, that ironically opens the door to real Health Insurance Reform ("HIR"), and would allow the Democratic Party to redeem itself.

The loss of the Senate majority would signal the death of the present Committee leadership in the Senate, and force the Democrats to craft passable legislation rather than the sort of Frankenstein Monster created under Reid and Baucus.

If the current Senate HCR Bill dies, that makes room for a series of smaller amendments -- such as lifting the anti-trust exemption for the health insurance industry and drug re-importation -- the good stuff that got chucked from the Senate Bill. We might even get Sen. Dorgan to reconsider leaving. Piece-by-piece passage of real insurance regulation may actually do more to keep costs down for the American people. Bills that do not involve appropriations could be passed in the Senate with 51 votes, and these more progressive measures will surely pass the present House.

But, defeat of meaningful HCR comes with a possible downside. If the House and more progressive people in the Obama circle don't get their act together, and lead a push for real reform of the health insurance industry, the whole Democratic slate is going to suffer a terrible reversal in November and in '12.

Without a public option, and real reforms, "HCR" is just another bail-out of big business. I think the American people understand that on a gut level. They also understand leadership, and will reward it, if the leadership will only allow that to happen.