The Gulf Disaster = Who Knew What When? Firedoglake [View All]

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Here’s a back-of-the-envelope outline of the story as it has unfolded to the public and what it tells us:

1. A huge explosion occurred eleven days ago, creating a fireball on the platform that burned for days. The size of the fireball and the fact it wasn’t burning out suggested large quantities of fuel.

2. From the beginning, there were two possible sources for the fuel. a) On deck storage of diesel fuel used by the platform and b) oil/gas coming from the well through the connecting riser pipe.

3. From the beginning, BP and the Coast Guard told us there were no "spills."

4. After days with the platform engulfed by a huge fireball, the answer seemed to shift to the well as a continuing source of fuel for the fire. That suggested further that whatever mechanisms the platform had for sealing off the well, and the source of the fuel, were not functioning, and

5. Since the safety valves were not functioning, that meant the operators knew they were facing the risk of an extended period in which oil/gas would continue to gush up the well, through the pipe and out the platform. At that point, the risk of a massive, uncontrolled gush of oil into the Gulf should have been apparent.

6. Given this likely knowledge, the moment the platform collapsed and sank, they would have known that there existed a huge risk that the pipe would rupture from the platform, and that the oil would begin to gush, out of control, from breaks in the riser pipe.

All of this would have been known by BP and should have been guessed by the Coast Guard/and regulators, and yet the story at the time was that there were no spills; when the "leaks" were reported, they were cast as a surprise when the oil was first reported on the ocean surface.

7. Now we’re told that in the normal, no-accident, situation some oil and/or gas always escapes from the moment the drilling pierces into the oil/gas pool, and that there is always a gap between the pipe inserted into the drilled hole and the pipe. We learn the oil/gas will escape through that gap, into the ocean, until the gap is sealed by a process of pumping cement down the pipe, out the bottom to plug the gap. In other words normal off-shore drilling operations always involve unreported leaks of oil/gas into the water.

8. Enter Halliburton. It’s job, worldwide, is to plug the gap between drill hole and pipe to stop the leakage, and to partially close the hole to allow more control over the pressure from oil/gas trying to escape up the pipe. If it doesn’t do this well, the pressure can cause a dangerous surge, and because the gas is highly flammable, there is a danger of a blowout and explosion when the escaping gas/oil reaches the platform.

9. This happened recently in Australia, where a rig also being sealed by Halliburton blew up and was destroyed, while millions of gallons of oil gushed into the ocean. This may not be a rare occurrence; blowouts do occur; we just don’t hear about them except when the explosions are large and easily detected.

A 2007 study by three U.S. Minerals Management Service officials found that cementing was a factor in 18 of 39 well blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico over a 14-year period. That was the single largest factor, ahead of equipment failure and pipe failure.

10. We don’t know what caused this blowout and explosion. But it’s now clear that those who are responsible did not reveal what they knew and are probably still withholding critical information from the public. Information about the potential risks is vital to government responders and affected communities, but as is often the case, it only trickles out when it’s obvious, after we’ve lost critical time in getting ready. Whether the industry is still withholding vital information from the authorities trying to plan for what’s becoming one of the worst environmental disasters in US history, we do not know.