SC Index Poll done May 18 showed Demint 50% Rawls 43% MoE plus/minus 4.6% [View All]

Monday, May 24, 2010
New Poll Results for SC


The results of this month’s SCIndex survey show how the slippery dynamics of this year’s election cycle is likely to make the 2010 general election very competitive. Our survey of 438* active voters likely to vote in the November general election shows that both the gubernatorial and US Senate races may offer some interesting twists this year.

Throughout the country voters have been turning away from incumbents in order to register their dissatisfaction with a perceived “politics as usual” approach to government. If dissatisfaction with those in power becomes a major theme in South Carolina then Republican incumbents may find voters very unfriendly in November. Republican dominance at the statehouse places the GOP in firm control during a period of time that has seen double digit unemployment and countless scandals. And the state’s junior US Senator, Republican Jim DeMint, may have to defend his job performance in light of the state and nation’s significant economic problems.

According to our May 18th telephone survey DeMint’s job approval and re-elect numbers are well below the marks of a strong incumbent. Only 53% of all voters currently approve of his job performance while only 48% of all voters are likely to support his re-election. In a head to head question with Democratic challenger Vic Rawl, DeMint gets 50% of the vote to Rawl’s 43%. It is important to note that Rawl has never run for statewide office and has not aired any TV ads during this primary season.

DeMint’s tepid showing in the early horse race numbers may also indicate that other statewide races will be equally competitive. When asked in the May survey if they would most likely vote for a Democrat or a Republican candidate for governor this November, voters split 46% for the Republican and 44% for the Democrat.

Although the fall elections are a long way off South Carolina may not be an easy slam dunk for the GOP at any ballot position in 2010. Like most election years the battle ground between Republican and Democrats in SC is a small number of independent voters scattered across the state’s major media markets. In the past Democrats have not done a good job fielding campaigns that spoke to the concerns of these voters. In an election year where there is a detectable mood for “throwing the rascals out” Republican candidates may end up playing more defense than offense in 2010. If the Democrats can find the resources and the primaries produce quality candidates the approaching general elections might offer some surprises.


* margin of error plus or minus 4.6%


http://scindex.blogspot.com/2010/05/new-poll-results-for-sc.html


wonder why the MSM hasn't dug this up yet?