Reply #103: That incident did not "do him in" [View All]

The fact is he was expected to win Iowa - he was the front runner. He ended up with TWENTY percent less than John Kerry. (38 vs 18)
The story of that night, without the scream, would have been Kerry's under the radar win and Dean's and Gephardt's disastrous results. Dean had already been losing numbers to Clark, Kerry and unknown in NH before Iowa. Kerry, well liked in NH before but considered to not have a chance, got momentum from his win - just as ANY winner does. (Obama pre-Iowa was polling 20 points behind Clinton). Everyone looks better coming off a win, smiling and enthusiastic. Kerry then won NH.

At that point, Dean had major problems. Trippi had spent most of the $40 million raised over the internet in NH and Iowa and after the loss in Iowa, Dean's fund raising was not as strong as it had been. Dean announced that he was not going to campaign in the next multi state event - because he had limited (if any) organization there and no money. They were also not good states for a New Englander. He said he would concentrate on the elections after that. This could have worked had the non New Englanders split the states (MO, OK, SC, NM, AZ, ND and DE). But Kerry won five of them. That really made Kerry, not just a front runner, but likely an unstoppable front runner.

So, the reasons that carry more weight than "the scream" were:

1) Kerry, on the ground, in Iowa and NH was a better campaigner.
2) Trippi's waste of Dean's money drove the gamble that they could ignore the 7 states on the first multi-state day.