Consumers Give Signs of a Free-Spending Holiday Season (WTF)

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/25/business/25spend.html?adxnnl=1&oref=login&adxnnlx=1101394992-+0Jf6qX9um8o7/97LZ4zfw

Jim Bernau is expecting to enjoy this Christmas a lot more than last year's. Mr. Bernau, the founder and president of Willamette Valley Vineyards of Salem, Ore., is used to seeing holiday-season sales begin in earnest right after Thanksgiving. But last weekend, people were already three deep at the counter of his winery's tasting room.

"This holiday season is going to ring some pretty loud bells," Mr. Bernau predicted. "Consumers are definitely shaking off whatever was bothering them."

Wine is the kind of discretionary purchase that provides a good indication of how flush people are feeling. So as retailers nervously enter the all-important holiday season, the strong sales of a winery's pinot noirs, along with other indicators, suggest that consumers are poised to keep spending through the end of the year. Indeed, the pinot noirs on Mr. Bernau's Web site, www.willamettevalleyvineyards.com, sell for $17 to $50 a bottle.

Business in other areas is showing promise. Retail chain store sales rebounded from a dismal spring and summer to rise 1.3 percent in September and 0.8 percent in October. Last month, employers added 337,000 jobs, the most since March, and the help-wanted index compiled by the Conference Board, a barometer of future job demand, rose for the first time in three months.

The University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence, after falling for three months in a row, finally ticked up this month.

more...

Give it a couple of weeks. 3, maybe. Then the truths will reveal themselves.

people believe there is no end to good times on credit. I think we are in for a rude awakening throughout the country.

Of course the trained shimp will be the last to get the wake-up call.

Julie

to trained seals?

Really, where did "trained shrimp" come from>

and it was a typo. "Chimp" was the intended word and I cannot go back and edit.

My bad.

Julie

from rich person to another rich person.

the spend . . . they go out and buy, hoping that their actions will somehow relieve their problems . . . it works for, oh, maybe five minutes or so . . . then they're right back where they were, but with smaller bank accounts . . .

(((sigh))) . . .

Post election stress trauma.

PEST

coincedence?:shrug:

Madison Ave, with the aid of mass media, has trained americans over the years to believe that there is something wrong with them that only the purchase of whatever crap is advertised will fix. It is the basis of our entire economy.

But soon people find out that the great satisfation they expected is bogus and they feel no better than before, just broker than before.

Hopefully, one day they will realize that no material object will give personal satisfaction. That ONLY comes from interaction with people. The company of loved ones.

Once enough come to that realization the nation will change for the better. But I'm not holding my breath.

Using myself as a test case, that's no surprise

That's exactly what I said the minute I started reading this.

What else is new?

It's the holiday season and people feel pressured to give their kids and spouses gifts they won't even remember two weeks (or maybe two days) later. Then the bills will come due in January and spending will be in the shitter for the first 3-4 months of the year.

Me, personally, I'm cutting back. Better to spend money on vacations that allow for shared time and shared experience than more meaningless stuff.

It's really going to suck for most people (myself included sadly) when the credit card companies get all the legislation they want passed. They want to make declaring bankruptcy more difficult, only for private citizens not big companies, natch. Additionally, they want to be able to ratchet up your interest rates if you are late on any type of payment. Meaning that if you pay your water, gas, or phone bill a few days late, your credit card interest is raised even if you've always been timely with that payment. F**king bastards!!!

The Fed will have to make big increases in U.S. interest rates just to keep foreign investors buying U.S. debt instruments.

Boy, will these people ever be sorry they pulled out their credit cards.

Of you haven't seen it watch the Fronjtline Secret history of the credit card, the tricks these people use are sickening.

And they will keep running it for another 4.

it wasn't true last year and it isn't true now.

it's the corporate media propaganda they put out HOPING people will spend.

On the one hand you have realistic pragmatics like us on DU, who keep up with all the stressful news; on the other hand you have the deep-in-denial Bush supporters with the repressed anxiety. For them it's getting harder every day to ignore reality.

People who still have credit available are going to spend and spend, because they know that the bubble's gonna burst soon, so why not live it up now..

Probably lots of them "know" that they will never be paying these off anyway..

Mark my words..

As soon as you start to see some "action" on that bankruptcy bill, the shit is gonna hit the fan..

There are MILLIONS of people who are using credit, and hoarding cash, because they see the government spending llike there's no tomorrow, and see guys like Kenny-Boy and "the Donald" using bankruptcy, so it's on their minds too.. I look at this as the "before".. These people are just getting all the goodies while they still can..


Interest is still cheap, and prices are unnaturally low, so the ones who CAN grab the gusto...ARE...

In 2 years, we shall see another story entirely:(

Already, we have had two additional fiancial changes:
1)Credit card terms. Notices have recently been sent to people changing the terms of their credit. Even if they have been paying on time every month, their interest rate has risen because they were paying the minimum amt each month.
2)No more floating checks.

investor-owned, if I'm remembering right, and run by some very hard-working dedicated folks. They deserve to have a good holiday season, as do all the small local businesses, many struggling to survive. I wish them well--this may be the last such season, given what economists are saying about the coming collapse in the next year or so. And remember--Oregon is a blue state. We're worthy people here! And our wines are among the best, too. (Sorry, CA)

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Class of 56

and spend now, because tomorrow the bottom drops out.

Everybodies spending money they don't have and you should too.

day by day.

Don't stay home, everyone is out there shopping. Join them!

my son's explanation correctly. Have a "news" article about how good it is...more jobs (seasonal for Xmas?)...bright cheery small entrepreneur (money, money, money)...a statistic (lies, damn lies, statistics), and people will believe what they desperately want to believe...ALL IS WELL.

They did it here with a "small businesses vote Bush...6 out of 7." Every small biz I know voted Kerry because we know that Bush is after an ownership class (Corporations will own millions of Americans.) The "newspaper" had to finally resort to two "home" based business to find the 6.

Parrots.

Bu I operate an online business and to my utter surprise sales started to increase the morning after the election. They are double what they were in October and I have been doing this for 4 years. I had assumed that possibly the market was saturated as there has been a steady decline since January of this year and I was going to have to deal with less profit but this month has been very good...

Of course I sell books, mostly eduactional and academic. Maybe more people are getting informed..

who knows, all I can say is that business IS booming..

people are getting poorer, and need to find cheaper diversions (reading).:)

of course prosperity is a good thing, but there have been countless similar reports of pending good times. And every single time, people came up with first-hand anecdotal confirmations like yours that yes indeed the media is right this time, and every single time it failed to pan out.

Because I voted for Kerry and had some slim hope that bush would screw everything up to the point that people would stop spending money and the economy would come closer to collapse therby giving the dems arsenal to use against the Rwiners..

Of course there is still 4 years for him to screw everything up in a big way.

do you also think democrats love Saddam Hussein?

I never said that.. try not to infer too much it might be painful.

I am a liberal so attacking my views isn't going to get you anywhere. But it wouldn't be a bad thing for the repugs to have to stew in their own juices for a short while so they can learn a much needed lesson. Hence the phrase: "well it might be a good thing Bush won so we don't have to clean up his mess"

Sarcasm doesn't seem to work in some circles sorry I even attempted it..

Many here are desperately hoping the economy does NOT collapse. The only people who would be hurt by that are the middle and lower classes. BushCo and his have mores will still be enjoying the high life.

I hope your wish for our economy does not come true.

the only way to stop the little facist. Sometimes it takes great pain to bring about change. Many people suffered through the depression, but much good came out of it. Now the robber barons and war mongers have returned with even greater power and influence than the last time around.

While I do not wish harm to the middle and lower classes, it may take something like this to again wake them from their slumber. I guess I'd rather see the US (and to some extent the rest of the world) go through economic pain than another world war, I mean if one had to choose. Then again, would it stop Booosh, or just make him even more desperate and reckless? :shrug:

I guess I'd rather see the US (and to some extent the rest of the world) go through economic pain than another world war, I mean if one had to choose.

If you think economic suffering is an *alternative* to a world war, history is not on your side.

Yes, reform tends to happen in America when there are no options left--when capitalism has broken down so severely that socialism's balm can no longer be avoided.

But be careful of what you wish for! If the collapse you imagine comes, there will be more war. Count on it.

especially when it comes to major changes such as the reserve currency.

Boosh already has us so over extended, militarily and economically. If a collapse and change is going to come, it may be best while he has us so weak. No doubt, we will most likely not come out on top this time, but at least the world has a slight chance of coming out of it before the entire planet ends up being nuked to the point of no return.

Hit us while we are down, weakened and over-extended. Of course, with Shrubby at the helm, the probability of him dragging us into a war are extremely high. I think the rest of the world sees that threat, hence the cutting of the purse strings now. They'll risk some economic pain to stop the little facist while they can.

Bush has already screwed up. It's just a matter of seeing how much more he screws up, Win! And we can only pray it's not in a big way, I don't think we'll all survive that, do you? But I understand what you are saying...and it's really scary waiting for his next moves.

what you said. I do agree that this is now his mess totally since he now has four more years. At least they sure can't blame those years on the Democrats. Probably a good thing Kerry didn't have to try to clean up this mess, since it might prove impossible. All we can do is stick together and hope for the best. And thank goodness for a site like this to share our views. Thanks to all of you!

but I think sales might have increased right after the election just because the election was over and there were no major riots or anything like that. I think people had a lot of tension leading up to the election, and there was probably some relief for people once it was over. Of course, this period of calm will probably be short-lived - eventually people will have to face the fact that the country isn't doing well. I plan on getting the "Honk if you love trillion dollar deficits" bumper sticker. Maybe it will get people to think. Of course if I had a "Honk if you love *" bumper sticker here in Louisiana, I would get honkig all the time. Maybe people will realize that loving trillion dollar deficits (which they wouldn't do) is the same as loving * (which they do do unquestioningly).

I simply can't believe this is more than attempts to impact the future with propaganda.

The article is, to put it mildly -- crap. The retailers in the small mall my business is in have been very nervously commenting on the LACK of shoppers. Without giving away the names of the businesses or their locations, we sell items that are VERY attractive to women, especially those women interested in crafting. In other words, if you'd like to make something for your loved ones for the holidays, you see us.

First it was, "People will shop after Halloween. It's the election." Then it was, "People are nervous about the election." Then it was, "Wait till after Thanksgiving."

Julie

the richest 1% have more to spend now than ever before. I walked through a retail area in the wealthiest section of town a few days ago, and the place was swarming with shoppers. It's those retail establishments that cater to the middle and lower classes that I wonder about.

This year because I am finally out of money.

I know others like myself in similar straights but different circumstances.

All of us are refugees from high-tech. None of us will be adding significantly to the GDP this year or next.

People normally shop more around X-mas time. Strangely, as a result of this increased purchasing activity, retail outlets hire more personnel to accomodate the additional demand. Rumor has it that the majority of these new hires might be furloughed after the holiday season, but this reporter doesn't feel the need to dwell on negative possibilities.

All is well and these increases are not considered a natural part of the holiday retail cycle when it is not being marred by our great leader's war du jour, so stop saying that.

Consume, obey, and know that our Great Leader loves all of you.

<Sarcasm off>

P.S. For the record, I had a bad feeling about election day so I bought a copy of GTA: San Andreas to take my mind off of the election results, so apparently I might have contributed to the "recovery" in November. I feel dirty.

Boycott the holiday shopping season! Buy nothing beyond what you would at any other time of year. If you must buy, buy from local small businesses!

ribbons all over it and little American flags on it. That about sums up my mood this season.

63% of the county went for Boosh. In my town the Mayor, council, judge, cops all repugnantkins. Somebody (and no it wasn't me) wrote police state on the signs there. It's really odd because no matter who moves in and out of this place, the politicians always win by the same percentage and I lived here for seventeen years. The Mayor when he ran the first time ran as a democrat and lost. When he became a repugnantkin he won in a landslide, what a suprise. I tried putting signs on my lawn and I got egged. I seen who did it too, it was the cops so the tree thing isn't a good idea. I'll keep it in my house.

Yee gads, what a horrible way to have to live. One of the few saving graces of my life is that my local area is so very liberal. We're almost a separate country; we even have our own currency. (Ithaca Hours--so named because the primary way of earning them is community service, but people take them like money: my credit union, my grocery coop, they all take Ithaca Hours.) The Free Republic declared us one of the three towns on the domestic Axis of Evil. We were so proud that we talked about making our own "Living on the Axis of Evil" T-shirts.

I greatly admire all those who can live on the front lines of the struggle. Even with my wonderful town I'm looking at emigration because the federal government horrifies me so. The strength of folks like you amazes me.

on the grown kids and grandkids. I told them that at least for me, do not spend one dime. I want them to save it. Heaven only knows what is going to happen in this country in the near future and I don't want them buying anything they don't have to. Same for me. It's going to be TIGHT from now on. And not just for the holidays. I won't buy anything I don't absolutely need. And I'll be buying from local businesses, BLUE businesses. :)

It's just easier to convince people to do something like this for a period of time rather than for the foreseeable future. December is the crucial time, from retailers' (e.g., Wal-Mart's) point of view: most retail establishments lose money all year and only break even and then make a profit in December. So if we can get people to stop buying even for just the holiday shopping season, we'll have made a big dent.

buying anything. My husband received a letter last week telling him that the company he works for will be closing down for 12-16 months on December 23...

spending. Me myself I hope the economy picks up. I have kids getting out of school that will need to find work.

We all hope the economy picks up, but when the media puts out obvious propaganda articles which are not based on reality, it gets one's dander up.

The article has no basis for its statement. I wish it did.

It is the LIES that many are fed up with.

That there are plenty of jobs when there aren't...
That the economy is getting better when it isn't...
That the tax cuts benefit the middle class when they don't...
That we're safer when in reality we more of a target now...
That the illegal war in Iraq is going swimmingly when we know better

Speaking for myself, I am not going to spend money because I don't have any to spend. If I DID, and when I DO, it spend it with companies who don't support this Misdministration.

are not a lot of great jobs out there. but they are spending.

the economy.

We need middle and working class people to be wealthier and not more indebted if this economy is going to pull itself out of this funk.

The people running this country count dollars, not votes. We need to send an unmistakeable message of no confidence. We need to deprive them of what they want until they give us what we want.

Spending is the only power we have over them. We need to use it.

1.) Short-term interest rates are still at historically low levels, and they've been that way for the past four years. The significance is that anyone can qualify for a credit card or some other debt instrument.

2.) This was an election year, so federal, state, and local governments have been hiring and doling out the cash in order to get re-elected this year.

End result is that the economy is flushed with cash, borrowed cash, but cash nonetheless. This will be the last good Christmas for a long, long time to come.

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I've been enjoying a Covey Run red, from Washington, a BLUE STATE.

I saw this TV news report talking about all the zillions of jobs for college grads this year. Is this real? I can't believe anything anymore. 'cept wine labels, I mean.

to either celebrate or drown their sorrows. This is the media trying to create the news or more of their self fulfilling prophecies

I am trying to buy only from small businesses and avoiding the ones that contributed to repugs. Is anyone in on the no spend day tomorrow?
http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/contrib.asp?Ind=N03

i want a black and blue christmas, with gothic carols and spider web floss as decoration. basically a halloween christmas, saves on money, and hell, the two have been merging anyways, might as well finish the job.

I have my plastic tree, my arrangements from 5 years ago, my kids they don't need more toys, I don't need stuff and I don't have nothing to give away except my hearth.

There has been a nationwide call for a boycott on Christmas shopping, although I supposed that's not practical for people with small children.

That will only hurt companies that outsource!