STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 26 November

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 82.03 Change -0.15 (-0.18%)

Settle 82.18 Settle Time 23:36

Open 81.78 Previous Close 82.18

High 82.42 Low 81.53

Euro's rise may force ECB move to rescue recovery

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/b9056e1c-3f51-11d9-8198-00000e2511c8.html

The euro rose to record highs against the dollar yesterday in spite of a sharp fall in German business confidence, prompting speculation that the European Central Bank might have to cut interest rates to save the eurozone's export-led recovery.

Against the dollar, the euro surged above $1.32 in European trading yesterday, although the markets were quiet because of the US Thanksgiving holiday.

The Munich-based Ifo economic institute said its closely watched German business climate index had dropped to 94.1 in November from 95.3 in October, the lowest level for more than a year. Ifo blamed higher oil prices and fears about the impact on exporters of the euro's appreciation.

Hans-Werner Sinn, Ifo's head, told German television he thought intervention in the currency markets was "appropriate".

...more...

China cutting dollar assets in forex stash -paper

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6924270

BEIJING, Nov 26 (Reuters) - China has been cutting dollar assets in its foreign exchange reserves to avoid losses stemming from the weakening of the U.S. currency, the China Business News said on Friday.

"China has already begun reducing U.S. dollar assets in forex reserves," the newspaper quoted Yu Yongding, a researcher who is also a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, as saying.

Growth in China's holdings of U.S. treasuries had slowed this year, and it now held about $180 billion worth, Yu was quoted as telling a forum in Shanghai on Thursday.

Dollar-denominated assets made up some 80 percent of China's foreign exchange reserves, the newspaper quoted an unidentified source as saying.

...more...

U.S. Treasuries Drop After Newspaper Says China Cut Holdings

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=agjIezXOcZJU&refer=us

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year Treasury notes had their biggest drop in a week in London, heading for a fifth week of declines, after a newspaper reported that China, the second- largest overseas holder of the securities, reduced its holdings.

China trimmed the U.S. debt in its foreign-exchange reserves to $180 billion to avoid losses from a falling dollar, China Business News cited Yu Yongding, a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, as saying. Treasuries pared their declines after Yu later denied any knowledge of changes to his country's foreign-exchange reserves.

``These rumors are leading to tremendous movements in the yields,'' said Kornelius Purps, a fixed-income strategist in Munich at HVB Group, Germany's second-largest bank by assets. ``Speculation that the dollar is going to weaken further means Treasuries are going to weaken further. This takes out all the other fundamental issues of rate hikes, steady growth.''

<snip>

The Treasuries sales are ``just another sign of potential preparation in China for a currency regime change,'' said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a senior investment strategist in Hong Kong at CFC Securities Ltd. ``It makes sense for them to peg the yuan against the basket of currencies that reflects foreign trade.''

...more...

Korean won zooms past 1,050 to dollar

http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/SITE/data/html_dir/2004/11/27/200411270004.asp

The won was poised for its ninth weekly advance, blasting through 1,050 to the dollar to a fresh seven-year high as exporters continued to purchase the local currency with their overseas profits.

At 2:30 pm, the local currency traded at 1045.7 per dollar, stronger by more than 1 percent against Thursday's close of 1057.2. The currency has climbed 13 percent against the dollar this year, raising concerns that Korea's exports, the country's main engine for economic growth, may lose momentum.

"Exporters expect the dollar to extend its decline and are accelerating the conversion of their earnings made abroad into the won. Exporters are still selling their dollars for the won, and more exporters will do so as the won strengthens past 1,050. They don't want to hold dollars because of the global dollar weakness." Jeff Kim. a currency trader at Korea Exchange Bank, told Bloomberg News.

<snipping to last paragraph>

Major companies, however, have dampened the dollar effects with hedge contracts that bet on movement of the greenback.

...more at link...

China trims US Treasury holdings to avoid weak dollar, boosts euros - source

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=1101454966-9e32d306-08548

BEIJING (AFX) - China has reduced its holdings in US dollar assets and added to its positions in euros and other currencies as well as gold, in order to avoid the impact of the weakening dollar, a Chinese financial specialist told XFN-Asia. The specialist, who is close to central bank policy makers but declined to be identified by name, said that Beijing's holdings of Treasurys and other dollar assets had been trimmed

"This is indeed the case," the financial specialist. "This is related to the weakness in the dollar." The financial specialist said that the euro was the main beneficiary of the initial switch but a broader diversification had later been implemented to include the Swiss franc and gold

He declined to say when the trend began or whether it would continue

He did not estimate the current level of China's official US Treasury holdings and declined to comment on a report in the China Business News that holdings in US Treasurys had been cut to 180 bln usd

A central bank official could not confirm or deny the report

...more...

No economic reports today other than: Money Supply Nov 26

Looks like the BoJ is trying to support the dollar - wonder how far they will go?

That low of 81.53 is pretty eye-opening. Wonder if anyone in the muddia will notice.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

This is an impressive avalanche of stories UIA.

And good morning! :donut: :donut: :donut:

:donut: :donut:

Already had a pot of coffee here - guess I'm wired for sound these days :D

The rapidly declining dollar is becoming rather troublesome to the rest of the world.

That chess game is getting a bit hairy as more and more pieces get moved into defensive and offensive positions. I assume that we will see some of those removed from the playing field very soon.

Have a great day after Tanksgiving :)

We are avoiding the shopping arenas today. The end result will be a wonderful day at the natural history museum. I hope your holiday was spent with people you love!

I wonder if the world is looking for the least hurtful movement away from the dollar's status as reserve currency? The world looks to be undergoing a sea-change in this direction.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6D1746CC%2D973E%2D4555%2D8C75%2DC89AB568BD6B%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

The U.S. currency fell to a more-than-four-year low of 102.18 yen early on, but had recovered to 102.76 yen, up 0.1 percent, as of 10:50 a.m. Eastern.

Doubt about an earlier report indicating China had cut its U.S. Treasury holdings in foreign exchange reserves helped the dollar's recovery from its Asian descent.

Yu Yongding, a member of the monetary policy committee under the Chinese central bank, said his remarks at a Shanghai seminar had been misinterpreted in a local newspaper report, a Xinhua Financial Network report said.

The Shanghai-based China Business News had quoted Yu as saying China has cut the size of its U.S. Treasury bond holdings in its foreign exchange reserves to $180 billion to avoid losses from a weakening U.S. dollar. (a sizable reduction from $514.8 billion)

The report did not say how much of a reduction in Treasury debt that amount represented.

...more...

Now we only have to wait for the market to close. Stocks are climbing and the dollar is dropping.

I do have a serious question, is it to late to start off or would this be a good time to buy silver and gold? How does one get started on that adventure of metal buying?

Julie likes to buy gold - good person to ask. You might also check out the gold-promoting folks at Puplava Securities (see forthcoming WrapUp).

I will do that.

Hi James,

Whether or not buying gold right now is a good idea depends a lot on what you want it for. If you are looking to make money off it I wouldn't be to quick to plunk down a lot of $ on gold. If you are looking to keep money safe, especially in light of the current currency situation, then gold might be for you.

I like to have the real thing, to have and to hold, to sew into my clothes for when I flee the country.....er, sorry. I do like to have actual gold though, not stocks. You can buy it in several forms, often at coin shops.

Hope that helps--

Julie

thanks Julie

Must be the old crow in me I guess. :evilgrin:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBFCC42B4%2D4153%2D484D%2D988B%2D2CDBE10A9415%7D&siteid=mktw

China cuts Treasury holdings -report

excerpt:

The report quoted an unidentified source as saying that U.S. dollar-denominated assets have in the past accounted for about 80 percent of China's foreign exchange reserves. Most of the U.S. dollar assets were Treasury bonds or bills.

China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $514.5 billion at the end of September.

...more at link...

http://www.asiamedia.ucla.edu/article.asp?parentid=17108

excerpt:

China's influence in the entire region has expanded owing to a dizzying array of new investments in not only mines and oilfields, but infrastructure and transport. Cumulative capital outlay has exceeded $4 billion. Last year alone, Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) pumped $1.04 billion into the region, accounting for 36.5% of Latin America's foreign direct investment (FDI). Yet this figure has been dwarfed by what Hu and his delegation of state entrepreneurs pledged last week. The Chinese vowed to plough in $100 billion in the coming ten years. For instance, in Argentina alone, the SOEs are due to invest $19.7 billion in the coming decade in mines, railroads, and other infrastructure projects.

In his tightly packed tour, Hu also flashed the "solidarity with the developing world" card. In addresses to the parliaments of Brazil and Argentina, the Chinese President stressed that his country would "forever stay on the side of developing countries." Hu noted that China would spare no effort to help build a multi-polar world order - "a democratic international order as well as a multiple to development models." This seemed a not-so-subtle dig at the unilateralism, if not "neo-imperialism," supposedly pursued by the Bush administration.

More significantly, China's global clout is such that the Hu leadership is in a position to back up its rhetoric about helping Latin America with concrete economic and diplomatic gestures. Apart from FDI, Beijing has pledged to do what it can to promote the international status of large countries such as Brazil. Thus, China has lent support to Brazil's bid for a place in an expanded UN Security Council. Brazil's competitors include Japan - whose candidacy is supported by the U.S. - and India. Again, the subtext of the special relationship that Beijing has been trying to forge with Brasilia is that if Brazil feels that its economic and political aspirations have been adversely affected by the giant shadow cast by the U.S., China is ready to extend a helping hand.

In return for its largesse, Beijing will have assured supplies of oil and gas, minerals ranging from gold to nickel, as well as agricultural produce. This is despite the much longer distance involved in shipping over the goods to China. Moreover, Latin American countries including Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Peru last week agreed to recognize China's "full market economy status" (FMES). So far, some two dozen countries have accepted the Middle Kingdom's FMES, and Beijing is poised to put more pressure on the European Union to do the same. Recognition of this status would enable China to better defend itself against charges of dumping that may be raised by its trading partners.

...more...

Call me naive - but we cannot afford to do what China is proposing under our current leadership either by will or by asset measure. China will be the driving power this century. If this means that the United States will need to take care of itself rather than the rest of the world - so be it.

world these days.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were headed for a flat open on Friday, with the dollar in focus as Wall Street was expected to be quiet in a shortened trading day after being closed the previous session for the Thanksgiving holiday.

-cut-

S&P 500 futures were up 0.8 of a point, about even with fair value accounting for dividends, interest rates and time to expiration on the contract.

Dow Jones industrial index futures rose 3 points, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 4 points.

"The futures aren't doing much, with most of America seeming to still be on holiday. I'm expecting a very quiet open," said Oliver Stevens, senior quoting dealer at IG Index. "Most of the excitement is going on in currencies."

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=1&u=/nm/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc&sid=95609877

Also to mention - the movers and shakers are on holiday today.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20041126&ID=4114325

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar hit a record low against the euro for a fourth day running on Friday on jitters about a drop in China's dollar reserves but rebounded sharply as traders grew nervous about central bank intervention.

The U.S. unit tumbled to beyond $1.33 per euro and 4-1/2 year lows near 102 yen in Asia but jumped in European trade as doubts about an earlier report on China's currency reserves helped trigger a pullback.

Traders were also nervous about intervention by either the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan to weaken their currencies against the dollar, since worries about the U.S. current account deficit have knocked nearly nine percent off the greenback against the euro and the yen since early October.

``It's been incredible price action,'' said Paul Mackel, currency strategist at ABN Amro.

``The private sector has already thrown in the towel on the dollar, and now you are getting more and more signs that central banks are doing so. Then we had a push higher in dollar/yen which people were wondering might be the BoJ, but it didn't look like it.''

...more...

They say it wasn't the BoJ and they say it isn't the "private sector" - so what made the yen fall against the dollar? Two guesses and the last one doesn't count. Sheesh.

LOTS OF ECONOMIC DATA, BUT QUIET MARKETS

There was a great deal of economic data out today, but volatility in the markets was notably muted in front of the Thanksgiving Day celebrations tomorrow. To put it another way, I keep looking for some noteworthy percentage movements anywhere in the markets, but the broad stock indices are modestly positive, the bond market appears to be in a coma, and the dollar continues to crumble with a record new high for the euro. I’ll run through the highlights of the economic news that hit the wires today, but overall they had little impact on the markets. It looks like traders are ready to call it quits for the long holiday weekend.

Early this morning before stocks opened for trading the Commerce Department reported October orders for durable goods unexpectedly fell 0.4%. Economists were expecting durable goods orders for September to be revised from a growth rate of 0.2% to 0.6%, but instead they were revised even higher to a gain of 0.9%. Though the number for October was weaker than expected, mainstream market analysts gave the report a positive spin placing the emphasis on the upward revisions for September. In a separate release the Labor Department said first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell 12,000 to 333,000, with the four-week average falling to 332,000. This is the lowest level of initial claims since November 2000…the best in four years, but it sure doesn’t feel like the employment and wage growth we are experiencing is enough based our continuing increases in debt levels.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index unexpectedly weakened from 95.5 to 92.8 after economists were expecting a gain to 96.0. This is telling me the consumer could be feeling tapped-out for more spending. There are no tax rebate checks to spend this holiday shopping season, greatly diminished stimulus from cash-out mortgage refinancing, and higher energy bills to consume discretionary spending. I have had a gut feeling this would be a horrible shopping season as consumers pull back the reins on spending. I’ve been thinking for a while that the quarterly earnings reports that come out in January will put the retailers right in the tank. When I look at the chart of the S&P 500 Retail Index, it sure looks to me like these retailers are priced for absolute perfection. I have to call this chart the “Shop ‘till ya’ Drop Chart” because it looks to be in the nosebleed section, ready for a correction. In the past U.S. consumers have not allowed the lack of cash to limit Christmas purchases…just put it on the credit card! We’ll just have to watch the retail sales figures over the next month to get a feel for where this index is headed moving into 2005. Within this index I have to believe there are some good opportunities for a short sale. I’ll drag my feet another week or two to get some updated retail sales figures for the retailers.

-cut-

As Ike said in yesterday’s WrapUp, “I don’t put that much significance on the price action during a short week because of a major holiday.” I tend to agree with Ike as a great number of market analysts, traders, and investors are already on airplanes and in their cars headed out to see family and friends. I especially enjoy the Thanksgiving Holiday because people tend to be focused on positive things…those people and things that we are feeling grateful about. I count my blessings on a regular basis, but will take extra time this weekend to celebrate with an attitude of gratitude. May God bless you and your families with His peace and happiness!

Happy Thanksgiving!

Mike Hartman

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

8:52am 11/26/04 <$TNX> 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE -13/32 AT 100 1/32; YIELD 4.25%

8:52am 11/26/04 <$TNX> TREASURYS OFF AMID THOUGHTS FOREIGN BANKS MAY CUT BACK

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38317.3751909259-827922534&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

Treasurys down amid thoughts of foreign bank reductions

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Treasurys were off Friday in early New York trading, with the market en route to a fifth week of losses amid speculation that the dollar's plummet may prompt foreign central banks to cut their investment in U.S. securities. Nearing 9 a.m. Eastern, the 10-year note fell 12/32 to 100 2/32. Its yield ($TNX) , which moves in reverse of price, climbed to 4.25 percent.

(edited to add news link)

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bonds26nov26,1,3019198.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Though long-term rates have been flat or falling, Greenspan's warning of a rise isn't farfetched.

By Tom Petruno, Times Staff Writer


Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan caused a commotion a week ago when he warned in unusually clear language that interest rates would keep going up.

But to Wall Street, Greenspan's warning looks like a half-truth: Though short-term rates are indeed on the rise, long-term rates have been flat or falling.

That split performance has given a financial boost to consumers. It means they're earning more interest on money market accounts and other short-term savings. At the same time, mortgage rates mostly have been holding steady for the last three months, keeping the housing market strong.

Many companies also have benefited. They've been able to issue long-term bonds this fall at yields that in some cases have been the lowest in more than a decade.

The question that looms large over the economy and financial markets is whether long-term interest rates can remain subdued if short-term rates continue to climb at the hands of the Fed.

Some Wall Street pros say investors who are buying long-term bonds at current rates may not realize how much they could lose, at least on paper, if long-term rates should rise.

more...

When my company went public 3 years ago, they issued stock options to all the employees. Effective today, we are all vested in our options. The scuttlebut going around is that if everyone decides to excercise their options at the same time and sell them for cash proceeds that the stock price will tumult. Is there any historical validity to this?

Due to financial reasons beyond my control, I'm going to excercise my mine ASAP for the cash proceeds so any answers will not effect what I'm going to do. I was just curious if this was true or not. I'm a stock market innocent but I do read the thread everyday to watch for trends in the economy. Thanks.

number of shares issued to employees versus the number of shares overall. If the ratio of employee shares is significant to the number of shares the company issued then there is validity to the notion that the share price could tumble if everyone dumped at the same time.

An example of this is Enron. The top executives dumped their shares as their corporate shell game was on the brink of exposure. The number of shares unloaded at that time caused the price to expedite its descent.

I was curious how that would work. Thanks again.

briefing.com

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Still little enthusiasm seen in the futures market as current indications suggest the cash market will start the day on a relatively flat note... Volumes are expected to be light today... As a reminder, both the stock and bond markets are scheduled to close early at 1:00 ET.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0.

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Futures market versus fair value still suggesting a relatively flat open for the cash market... Analyst comments are few and far between while the lackluster showing in overseas markets and attention to the weakening US dollar have kept a lid on buying interest.

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Not much in the way of market-moving news so there isn't much conviction in the futures market, which is suggesting a flat to slightly positive start for the cash market... No earnings or economic data out today.

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's gains. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) has turned sideways hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1573.80 then Monday's low crossing at 1547 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this fall's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1717 is the next upside target. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 4.50 pts. at 1587.50 as of 5:50 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above initial support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 1181.31. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) has turned sideways signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If this fall's rally continues, a test of monthly resistance crossing at 1265.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1169.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The December S&P 500 Index was down 2.90 pts. at 1183.10 as of 5:53 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning.

Dow 10,521.86 +1.55 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,106.08 +3.54 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,183.47 +1.71 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.244% +0.049

NYSE Volume 36,973,000
Nasdaq Volume 72,582,000

Last trade 82.07 Change -0.11 (-0.13%)

Settle 82.18 Settle Time 23:36

Open 81.78 Previous Close 82.18

High 82.42 Low 81.53

But who is going to pay the penalties? The US corporations receiving the benefits of the Byrd amendment, or the US government (ie., us taxpayers)?

Gotta feeling it's going to be us, not the corporations.

:beer:

zowie! How low can it go? I think we're about to find out.

Good to see you all Marketters! I'll check back in a bit! :hi:

Julie

Last trade 81.96 Change -0.22 (-0.27%)

Settle 82.18 Settle Time 23:36

Open 81.78 Previous Close 82.18

High 82.42 Low 81.53

Last tick: 2004-11-26 10:00:11 ET
30-min delayed quote.



(edited to put the graphs side-by-side)

Mired in defecits, lacking in cogent leadership. Like the mises.org charts I mentioned.

Just one teeny little slice for desert.

Dow 10,524.97 +4.66 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,106.38 +3.84 (+0.18%)
S&P 500 1,184.34 +2.58 (+0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.24% +0.045
NYSE Volume 127,072,000
Nasdaq Volume 212,737,000

My son and I are going to be gone for the rest of the trading day. Enjoy your weekend! :hi: Ozy

Have a wonderful day :hi:

Dow 10,527.85 +7.54 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,106.97 +4.43 (+0.21%)
S&P 500 1,184.92 +3.16 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.238% +0.043

NYSE Volume 315,825,000
Nasdaq Volume 457,997,000

11:30AM: The broader averages touch their highs of the morning after getting a boost from basic materials stocks... Steel (+5.7%) has shown strength throughout the morning as investors have taken note of Nissan's (NSANY 21.11 +0.01) comment that is temporarily shutting down the bulk of its production capacity in Japan because it can't get enough steel to keep pace with demand for its models... Gold (+2.3%), coming off 16-year highs of $455/ounce earlier this morning, and aluminum (+2.8%) stocks, are also exhibiting relative strength in today's proceedings...NYSE Adv/Dec 2022/903, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1745/1021

11:00AM: Stable action in early trading with the indices sporting modest gains... Meanwhile, as shoppers continue to take advantage of Black Friday bargains, investors have maintained buying interest in many retailers, especially department stores... Saks (SKS 14.56 +0.77) has been the biggest winner of the group so far, surging more than 5.0% after being mentioned as a potential "real estate play" in a Business Week article... Separately, shares of Sears (S 54.00 +0.55), JC Penney (JCP 40.64 +0.50) and Kmart (KMRT 107.07 +1.80) are all up more than 1.0%...

The S&P Retail Index has surged more than 7% so far this month...NYSE Adv/Dec 1884/957, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1637/1044

10:30AM: Equities continue to run in place just above the flat line with few catalysts to send them noticeably higher... By the same token, there hasn't been much to drive them materially lower either...

Last trade 81.82 Change -0.36 (-0.44%)

Settle 82.18 Settle Time 23:36

Open 81.78 Previous Close 82.18

High 82.42 Low 81.53

Last tick: 2004-11-26 11:20:26 ET
30-min delayed quote.

Dow 10,522.23 +1.92 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,101.97 -0.57 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,182.65 +0.89 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.240% +0.045

NYSE Volume 504,421,000
Nasdaq Volume 668,239,000

Close: Stocks finished mixed for the day, but up for the week, despite spending most of Friday's session trapped in a range around the unchanged mark... A lack of corporate news, analyst actions and economic data left most investors with little conviction to buy or sell, but an overall bullish bias remained intact... Basic materials held center stage to the upside, with steel (+6.2%), aluminum (+2.6%) and gold (+2.3%) leading a list of winners that also included energy, healthcare, computer hardware, and telecom services...

Although a focal point for Black Friday, retail enjoyed gains just big enough to keep the S&P 500 Retail Index up 7% for the month... Semiconductor showed the most weakness on the heels of the Semiconductor Industry Association's forecast for flat sequential Q4 growth for consumer electronics... Airline, networking, software and biotech also closed lower... Meanwhile, the dollar continued its slide to new lows against the euro and yen early on, following speculation that the Chinese central bank had cut its holdings of U.S. Treasuries... The greenback rebounded slightly, however, after a Chinese central banker called the report "distorted"...

Nonetheless, the speculation applied pressure to the Treasury market during the session, as the 10-yr note dropped 11 ticks, bringing its yield up to 4.23%...

Last trade 81.77 Change -0.41 (-0.50%)

Settle 82.18 Settle Time 23:36

Open 81.78 Previous Close 82.18

High 82.42 Low 81.53

Last tick: 2004-11-26 12:56:15 ET
30-min delayed quote.

(edited for html)

Thanksgiving are ALWAYS good days for the markets? Such fools!

http://www.nytimes.com/financialtimes/business/FT20041125_6538_109443.html?oref=login

Foreign direct investment inflows to India leapt by almost 70 per cent in the first six months of the year but are still running at only a tenth the volume of China.

Kamal Nath, India's minister for commerce and trade, said on Thursday that India's FDI inflows for the year to next March were on target to exceed $5bn for the first time. Inflows were $2.38bn between April and October - up 68 per cent compared with the first six months of last year.

But Mr Nath said inflows to India could not directly be compared to those of China, which exceeded $50bn last year, since new projects in India were not generally in the "export-oriented" sector. There were also discrepancies in the ways India and China measure FDI, which exaggerated the difference.

"These inflows are by investors looking purely at India's domestic market, not principally at export goods," said Mr Nath in an interview with the Financial Times. "But as we increase liberalisation of our economy then the volume of FDI will pick up further."

more...

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=aLFJwX7zmvF8

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- In real estate, it's location, location, location. With markets, it's timing, timing, timing.

Asian central banks should consider this most basic of credos and sell some of their massive holdings in U.S. Treasuries. The reason: this may be as good a time as any for this region's monetary authorities to avoid losses ahead of a possible surge in U.S. debt yields.

The world's biggest economy is experiencing a mix of employment growth, solid retail sales, a sliding currency and record oil prices at a time when inflation already is accelerating. It's the kind of combination that spooks bond investors, and it seems only a matter of time before U.S. yields skyrocket.

Asia's central banks would suffer big losses if that happened. The combined U.S. Treasury holdings of China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand come to $1.1 trillion. Every increase in U.S. yields, no matter how mild, is costing Asia's central banks money. Why not reduce that risk now?

Leaders here have a perfect opportunity to plot an escape from U.S. bonds during the next few days as they gather in Vientiane, Laos. Leaders of China, Japan and Korea, all major U.S. Treasuries buyers, also will attend this year's summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean.

Asia's Fixation

more...

with a variable interest rate. I guess I'm screwed?

Now's the time if you have that option.

I'm not sure, but I will try like hell. If not I'm completely broke and may have to file bankruptcy.

filing. They may restructure, allow additional deferments or forebearance, but they are extremely difficult to get discharged in a bankruptcy.

http://www.nolo.com/lawcenter/ency/article.cfm/ObjectID/63C80677-0D3E-4505-AC3B7782841603F6/catID/2E00F7A7-E208-4858-BD0B8308A4D30D8A

Here's the nolo page that deals with credit in general:

http://www.nolo.com/lawcenter/ency/index.cfm/catID/734BECB6-ADDE-4041-AEC595AF30EA15CE

You market people get up early in the morning! So I have a total lay person's question: why is the stock market so high when the dollar and the deficit are so bad? When is it gonna crash? I know this can't be answered in 50 words or less (or can it), but if anyone can help me out, that would be nice.