STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 30 November

A TIME OF THANKSGIVING
A TIME OF REFLECTION

With the celebration of Thanksgiving last week, it is important to pause and observe how blessed we are, and how much we take for granted in our hectic lives. To be able to reflect on the love of family, the beauty of the fall colors against a crystal blue sky, and even our good health is rejuvenating. It has been said many times, but the average citizen lives a better, healthier and longer life than the world’s royalty did a few centuries back. It is unfortunate we need a holiday to remind us to count our blessings.

Thanksgiving is also a time to take stock, and look ahead. It is this element of the holiday that most of us ignore, preferring to focus on leftovers, football, and “Black Friday” shopping expeditions. However, the world keeps spinning, and for those willing to investigate, there are changes on the horizon, many of which may prove quite unpleasant.

It is apparent that our government is finally taking action against our financial house of cards. Not by cutting spending or asking for civic sacrifice mind you. No, the only way to pay for that lunch is to make the bill cheaper by inflating it. As the US dollar continues to sink, the Fed and the Bush Administration will stand aside, now that the election is over. Realistically, they can do little else. They must protect the banking system and the real estate market, so they will accept an orderly decline in the dollar and the inflation that comes with it. If the decline ceases to be orderly and turns into a rout, then the financial storm becomes a hurricane. No one knows if this will happen, but it’s best to have plywood and provisions nearby.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

WASHINGTON - The economy — helped out by more brisk consumer and business spending — grew at an annual rate of 3.9 percent in the third quarter, a performance that was stronger than previously thought.

The new reading on gross domestic product, which is based on additional data, was up from the 3.7 percent growth rate first estimated for the July-to-September quarter, the Commerce Department (news - web sites) reported Tuesday.

-cut-

The 3.9 percent growth rate registered in the third quarter represented a pickup from the second quarter's 3.3 percent pace and marked the best showing since the opening quarter of this year.

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=1&u=/ap/20041130/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy&sid=95609868

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B7291C23C%2D0AFC%2D4177%2D91A0%2D9C9181D32E28%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

Meanwhile, before-tax corporate profits from current production fell 2.4 percent to $1.15 trillion annualized in the third quarter, the fastest decline in three years, bringing the year-over-year growth down to 8.4 percent, the slowest growth in 10 quarters.

Profits at domestic financial corporations fell by $46.7 billion annualized, while profits at nonfinancial corporations rose by $10.2 billion. Profits from foreign operations increased $8.8 billion.

Profits were hurt by the series of hurricanes that devastated parts of Florida and other Southeastern states in the quarter. National income was reduced by an estimated $105 billion (annualized), including a reduction of $79.7 billion in corporate profits because of $10.4 billion in uninsured losses and $69.3 billion in insurance payments to noncorporate sectors, the government said.

...more...

PARIS (AFP) - US economic growth is set to slow to a growth rate of 3.3 percent next year as it absorbs the impact of soaring oil prices, the OECD said.

The OECD also warned that the dollar could fall because of the US current account deficit and said that the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) did not need to rush to raise interest rates because inflation was tame.

That rate would be sharply slower than the 4.4-percent growth the OECD predicted for this year in its twice yearly economic outlook.

-cut-

But the OECD warned that growth expectations faced some risks in the form of "further sustained increases in energy prices, weakness in the labour market, or a sharper than projected rise in long-term interest rates".

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=3&u=/afp/20041130/bs_afp/oecd_us_economy_growth_forecast&sid=96001027

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Texashedge/nov292004.html

The recent launch of the first U.S. gold ETF (ticker: GLD) has already shown incredible demand and we surmise it will only grow from here. In its first three days of trading, GLD traded roughly 30 million shares... and nearly all of that has been incremental demand (new buyers) according to the press. Carl Wittnebert, director of research at TrimTabs, was quoted saying "There's been nothing like it in the history of ETFs!"

So let's do some simple math. GLD (which represents 1/10 of an ounce of gold) is trading at approximately $45 per share. So 30 million shares times $45/share equals $1.3+ billion in new gold demand generated by GLD.

If silver, through its ETF, can add annually in demand what GLD did in 3 days, we are talking about an additional 180 million ounces being sucked up in one year. Add to this the preexisting silver deficit that runs around 75 million ounces per annum, and we are talking about a new annual deficit of approx 250 million ounces. 250 million ounces is roughly one-third of the world's supply of above ground silver.

If silver, through its ETF, can add quarterly in demand what GLD did in 3 days, we are talking about an additional 720 million ounces being sucked up in one year. Add to this the preexisting silver deficit that runs around 75 million ounces per annum, and we are talking about a new annual deficit of 800 million ounces. This would almost certainly wipe out the entire world's supply of above ground silver in less than one year.

more...


Meanwhile, how does something that simply bets on price movement create more demand? If the silver is set up the same as gold, and James Turk is correct - we have a problem here. :shrug:


Where Is the ETF's Gold?
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/nov222004.html

This past Thursday trading began on the NYSE for what is being called a 'gold ETF'. Here's how CBSMarketWatch described it just before the launch: "The first exchange-traded fund investing in gold bullion will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, said sources familiar with the situation. Called StreetTracks Gold Shares, the ETF will trade under the symbol 'GLD' with the World Gold Council as the sponsor." After the launch Reuters reported: "The ETF…offers investors the ability to access the gold bullion market, with each share representing one-tenth of an ounce of gold."

From these and other news reports it would appear that anyone buying this new ETF is buying gold bullion. But a different picture emerges from a careful reading of GLD's prospectus and accompanying advertising material.

By way of background, I have been following very closely the development of the gold ETF because I wanted to see if it would have a high level of governance over its bullion assets that was comparable to what my colleagues and I have achieved in GoldMoney. A product launched by the World Gold Council could have some competitive impact. Additionally, GoldMoney is exploring the possibility of creating its own ETF using goldgrams as the underlying asset.

Last year after analyzing the WGC's proposed ETF, I concluded that its custodial controls were inadequate. In December 2003 I wrote: "The risks of the WGC's funds appear too great. Until more questions are answered and/or the fund's structure is changed to eliminate its loose custodial controls, I do not recommend that these funds be purchased." To understand this conclusion, I recommend reading that article in full. See: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/turk/turk120903.html

Shortly after my article appeared, representatives of the WGC contacted me and threatened me with a lawsuit, unless I retracted the article. Needless to say, I was shocked, because I knew my work to be accurate, based as it was on publicly available information (i.e., the draft prospectus of the proposed US fund and the actual prospectus for similar funds in London and Australia). Also, it was clear from my article that I was focusing upon the importance of owning physical gold bullion, rather than just paper promises to deliver gold. Given that the stated mission of the WGC is to encourage ownership of physical gold bullion and to educate consumers about gold, why were they menacing me? But the threat of litigation does cause one to focus their mind, so I hired a top NYC attorney specializing in SEC law, just in case the WGC followed through on its threats.

Fortunately, they didn't. I assume that the WGC in the end recognized my work to be accurate, and that they didn't have a case. My attorney came to the same conclusion. What's more, he advised that the WGC was interfering with the work of an analyst, which is something the SEC seriously frowns upon. Remember the hot water Donald Trump got into when he intervened to have a brokerage firm analyst fired after writing a negative story on Trump's casinos?

more...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt took a nosedive on Monday as the breaking of key technical levels added momentum to an early burst of speculative selling.

Benchmark yields jumped to their highest level since August, clearing above the 4.28/4.30 percent chart barrier.

The downward dash began as investors sold government bonds to hedge their portfolios ahead of a week full of corporate debt issues, analysts said.

"There was some rate-locking in front of what's expected to be a pretty heavy week of corporate deals, and as that moved things lower, market-timers piled on," said Mark Mahoney, Treasury market strategist at UBS.

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=4&u=/nm/bs_nm/markets_bonds_dc&sid=95609877

Pardon my ignorance, please.

here is the answering post

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=1029054#1029484

:hi:

10:50am 11/30/04 TREASURY TO SELL $24 BLN 12-DAY CASH MGMT BILLS FRIDAY

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 81.89 Change -0.04 (-0.05%)

Settle 81.93 Settle Time 23:36

Open 82.01 Previous Close 81.93

High 82.22 Low 81.65

Guess that revised GDP couldn't have come at a better time :eyes:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={EE2D5EBC-35D3-4DE7-A3F2-03F24FE6CDA0}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

U.S. GDP revised up to 3.9%

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The U.S. economy grew at a 3.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter, slightly faster than the 3.7 percent estimated a month ago, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The revisions to real gross domestic product were largely due to higher exports, consumer spending and business investments, which were offset by lower inventory building. Economists were predicting a revision to about 3.8 percent. The core personal consumption expenditure price index rose an unrevised 0.7 percent.

http://www.forextelevision.com/FT/Text/ShowStory.jsp?id=1609

The Current Market Sentiment

EUR/USD

The pair is expected to face a strong resistance at 1.333 this week waiting for the US labor report by the end of this week. The pair can face a strong profit taken again as what has been done last month of the US labor report as the market has found it a good chance to resell the USD after an upbeat US non-farm pay-roll came at the double of the market expectations. It was rarely to face this market performance on such non-farm payroll data. But ahead of this week data the USD could find some footing but it is expected to be short lived and on a wave of profit taken before these data which is expected to be faced with USD selling after it especially if it came weaker than expected. We have many indicators to look at this week Q3 GDP preliminary reading, Nov US Consumer Confidence, Nov Manufacturing ISM, Oct Factory Orders, Nov Change Employment Payrolls and also the PMI manufacturing index from EU and UK

<snip>

USD/JPY

Iwata's recent talking about the flexibility that has been reached in the currency market and his agreement on the moderate impact of the interventions with Greenspan has dragged the pair from 130.3 to 102.7 recently. That is beside the G20 call for a flexible currency market which has given the feeling that the BOJ has further tolerance before intervening in the forex market! And Today's disappointing Oct industrial output which has come at -1.2% can give the pair some support in the next sessions as the market was expecting .2%. We have many indicators to look at this week Q3 GDP preliminary reading, Nov US Consumer Confidence, Nov Manufacturing ISM, Oct Factory Orders, Nov Change Employment Payrolls and also the PMI manufacturing index from EU and UK.

...more at link...

Today's Reports:

Nov 30 10:00 AM
Chicago PMI Nov
report -
briefing.com 59.0
market 62.0
last report 68.5
revised -

Nov 30 10:00 AM
Consumer Confidence Nov
report -
briefing.com 94.5
market 96.0
last report 92.8
revised -

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38321.4190067245-828290087&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The dollar hit a record low vs. the euro after data showed that consumer confidence dropped unexpectedly in November. The dollar was down 0.3 percent at $1.3309 but hit $1.3335 in intraday trading. The buck was off 0.3 percent against the yen at 102.58, lost 0.6 percent vs. the Swiss franc to 1.1351 and slid 0.9 percent against the British pound to $1.9106. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 90.5 in November from 92.9 in October, vs. expectations of a rise to 95.7.

I am sick and tired of these "surprised" economists - I certainly wish they would pull their freakin' heads out of that dark smelly place and get out on the main streets of anytown USoA - they would cease to be surprised in a heartbeat.

:grr:

11:36am 11/30/04 DOLLAR QUOTED AT 103.03 YEN, UP 0.2% VS. MONDAY

11:36am 11/30/04 DOLLAR TURNS MODESTLY POSITIVE AGAINST JAPANESE YEN

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_currier&sid=a0Uvs5MO0vTw

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- In this strange year of 2004, many of the big news stories have been about what didn't happen.

Contrary to widespread concerns, terrorists didn't strike before Nov. 2 to disrupt the U.S. elections. Neither did the lawyers afterward.

Deflation and inflation both failed to derail the world economy. In defiance of what all the smart money was sure would happen, rising interest rates didn't knock the bond market for a loop.

So it's only fitting that the stock market produce a ``didn't'' story of its own. Volatility -- the frenetic fluctuations that seemed to have become a standard feature of modern stock-market life -- did an abrupt vanishing act. After a nine-year run of two-digit swings up and down, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has shown only single-digit changes all through 2004.

snip>

Volatility's most notable new constituency is the rapidly growing hedge-fund industry, many of whose members invest in ``long-short'' style. The idea is to reap a reward, known in the trade as ``alpha,'' no matter which way markets are moving.

Alpha doesn't come easy. It doesn't accrue naturally to anybody, the way long-only investors benefit from bonds' interest payments and stocks' inherent tendency to rise as economies grow. Generally, alpha must be gained at the expense of someone else, in a zero-sum game.

more...

briefing.com

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. Still little enthusiasm seen in the futures market as current indications suggest the cash market will start the day on a relatively flat note... Meanwhile, crude oil has retreated from earlier highs of over $50/bbl but is still up $0.32 to $49.76/bbl

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Futures market fairly non-responsive to the Q3 GDP data out earlier, as lackluster sentiment continues to point to a flat open for the cash market... The November Consumer Confidence data that will come out at 10:00 ET will be the more compelling piece of economic news for traders

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. Futures trade improves somewhat on the slightly better than expected revision to Q3 GDP, as the figure was revised higher to 3.9% from 3.7%... The preliminary Chain Deflator came in unchanged at 1.3%... The indices, though, remain set for a relatively flat open as the dated nature of the Q3 data has failed to provide much of a buying catalyst

8:20AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.5. No real change in sentiment as investors wait to digest this morning's economic releases, with the preliminary Q3 GDP and Chain Deflator data out in a few minutes... Accordingly, the cash market is set to start the session on a flat to slightly lower note

8:01AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.0. Futures market suggesting a flat to slightly lower open for the cash market...

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1576.40. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) remains neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If December extends this fall's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1717 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1576.40 then last Monday's low crossing at 1547 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The December NASDAQ 100 was up 0.50 pts. at 1578 as of 5:53 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower overnight due to spillover selling following Monday's key reversal down. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1174.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) has turned down signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If this fall's rally continues, a test of monthly resistance crossing at 1265.80 is the next upside target. The December S&P 500 Index was steady at 1176 as of 5:55 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

Dow 10,479.45 +3.55 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,106.87 0.00 (0.00%)
S&P 500 1,177.91 -0.66 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.355% +0.025

NYSE Volume 88,121,000
Nasdaq Volume 173,101,000

9:40AM: Stocks open slightly lower as investors shrug off this morning's dated revisions to Q3 GDP growth and await the last two pieces of economic data... Both reports, the November Consumer Confidence (consensus 96.0) and the November Chicago PMI Index (consensus 62.0), will be released at 10:00 ET and are expected to prove more influential in moving the market...

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38321.4128725-828289305&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. consumers became more cautious in November, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The consumer confidence index fell to 90.5 in November from a revised 92.9 in October. This is the fourth straight monthly decline. The drop was unexpected. Economists forecast the confidence index to rise to 95.7 in November with the stock market rising in the wake of the presidential election. The Oct. confidence index was revised up slightly from the initial estimate of 92.8. The bulk of the decline came from the expectations index, which slipped to 87.4 from 92.2. This is the lowest level since July 2003. The present situation index rose to 95.2 from 94.0.


9:54am 11/30/04 U.S. NOV. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE LOWEST SINCE MARCH

9:54am 11/30/04 U.S. NOV. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE BELOW CONSENSUS 95.7

9:54am 11/30/04 U.S. NOV. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FALLS TO 90.5 VS 92.9 OCT

Dow 10,454.84 -21.06 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,101.67 -5.20 (-0.25%)
S&P 500 1,175.58 -2.99 (-0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.357% +0.027

NYSE Volume 136,278,000
Nasdaq Volume 257,466,000

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=aDaFXG_.Fn08

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The world of currency markets is one of winks, nods and secret handshakes. In it, key policy makers rarely, if ever, say exactly what's on their mind. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has done just that and traders should pay close attention.

Wen said, as he often does, that China won't relax the currency's fixed exchange rate to the dollar under pressure from other countries. Yet he went a step further this week, issuing a warning of sorts to currency speculators.

``To be frank, it's not possible to launch changes to the yuan when speculation is so rife,'' he said here in Vientiane, Laos on Sunday. ``Rampant speculative activities on the yuan,'' he added, will make the introduction of any measures ``impossible.''

In other words, traders who test China's resolve may only delay a change in its currency peg. It means that the more investment banks churn out reports predicting yuan revaluations -- and the more speculators react to them -- the longer the process may play out.

Reality, Not Playbook

Wen isn't reading from the playbook of Mahathir Mohammad, the former Malaysian prime minister who infamously did battle with speculators during the 1997-1998 Asian crisis. Wen's comments were less of a threat than an admission of reality.

more...


I gotta run for a couple of hours, should be back after the lunchbreak. :hi:

10:01am 11/30/04 U.S. NOV. CHICAGO PMI 65.2% VS. 62.8% FORECAST

but less than expected

Dow 10,449.37 -26.53 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,100.26 -6.61 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 1,175.09 -3.48 (-0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.365% +0.035

NYSE Volume 197,677,000
Nasdaq Volume 348,084,000

10:05AM: The market holds tight to its morning trading range as a negative bias prevails... Earlier, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported a Q3 GDP revision of 3.9% (consensus was 3.7%)... The improved performance was due to increased consumer spending and stronger investment in business equipment and software... But investors have viewed the data as a nonevent given its take on past (summer) conditions... Meanwhile, November Consumer Confidence and Chicago PMI were just released and came in at 90.5 (consensus 96.0) and 65.2 (consensus 62.0) respectively...

As a result, a knee-jerk reaction sent the indices to their worst levels but they have since rebounded somewhat to remain relatively unchanged... NYSE Adv/Dec 1078/1559, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1077/1413

How dare investors react to reality!

Here's the buck:

Last trade 81.68 Change -0.25 (-0.31%)

Settle 81.93 Settle Time 23:36

Open 82.03 Previous Close 81.93

High 82.22 Low 81.62

Dow 10,431.27 -44.63 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,101.40 -5.47 (-0.26%)
S&P 500 1,174.16 -4.41 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.339% +0.009

NYSE Volume 397,461,000
Nasdaq Volume 595,890,000

11:00 ET Major indices continue to trade near their lows of the day as market internals remain negative... Decliners on the NYSE have a 17 to 12 edge over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq have outpaced advancing issues 16 to 11... Financial, retail, utility, biotech and consumer staple remain influential leaders to the downside, and have overshadowed relative strength in computer hardware, inudstrials and energy... Homebuilding has also shown some strength in the early going following yesterday's weakness on the heels of a sell off in bonds... The 10-year note has rebounded a bit as well, down 6 ticks to yield 4.34%... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1236/1766. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1133/1672.

10:30 ET Not much conviction on the part of buyers this morning, as broad-based weakness continues to pressure the indices... Not helping sentiment has been mixed economic data releases at the top of the hour... The Conference Board reported the fourth straight monthly decline in Consumer Confidence, with November's reading of 90.5, versus the consensus of 96.0, standing in contrast to the improved labor market and stock market conditions... The Chicago PMI Index, however, came in ahead of expectations, at 65.2 versus the consensus of 62.0... Investors have taken comfort in this reading as the new orders figure of 70 suggests a continued strong pace of production - and a solid ISM Index number (a national manufacturing report) tomorrow... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1264/1616. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1159/1530.

Last trade 81.70 Change -0.23 (-0.28%)

Settle 81.93 Settle Time 23:36

Open 82.03 Previous Close 81.93

High 82.22 Low 81.60

I find it amazing how nonchalant people are about mortgaging their homes. I guess they're just following the example of our government; debt and deficits just don't matter, these can be sustained indefinitely.

http://www.rgj.com/news/stories/html/2004/02/23/64650.php

Greenspan: Household balance sheets generally in ‘good shape’

ASSOCIATED PRESS
2/23/2004 09:21 pm

WASHINGTON — The balance sheets of American households are generally in “good shape” as extra cash from a huge wave of home mortgage refinancing and decades-low interest rates helped consumers better manage their debt, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Monday

The financial health of consumers is important to the economy, which in the second half of last year finally cast off its lethargy and has been growing at a healthy pace. Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of all economic activity in the United States.

Greenspan, in a speech to a credit union conference meeting here, pointed out that U.S. households own more than $14 trillion in real estate assets — almost twice the amount they own in mutual funds and directly hold in stocks.

Home mortgage refinancings and a solid rise in home values helped to bolster consumer spending during economic hard times as well as during the recovery, Greenspan said.

“Over the past two years, significant increases in the value of real estate assets have, for some households, mitigated stock market losses and supported consumption,” Greenspan said in his prepared remarks.

...more...

Adjustable Rate Mortgage. Given Greenscam's measured words and tone - one may deduce this is the best he can do. Sheesh! This asshole would be the worst, least successful financial advisor if he were to work in the private sector. By the trappings of his logic - Greenscam's client base would consist of ruined portfolios and bankrupt individuals.

I am stepping out for a couple of hours. I will be back before trading concludes.

that is determined to destroy the average citizen

Here's that speech on ARMs
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
Understanding household debt obligations
At the Credit Union National Association 2004 Governmental Affairs Conference, Washington, D.C.
February 23, 2004

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040223/default.htm


excerpt:

One way homeowners attempt to manage their payment risk is to use fixed-rate mortgages, which typically allow homeowners to prepay their debt when interest rates fall but do not involve an increase in payments when interest rates rise. Homeowners pay a lot of money for the right to refinance and for the insurance against increasing mortgage payments. Calculations by market analysts of the "option adjusted spread" on mortgages suggest that the cost of these benefits conferred by fixed-rate mortgages can range from 0.5 percent to 1.2 percent, raising homeowners' annual after-tax mortgage payments by several thousand dollars. Indeed, recent research within the Federal Reserve suggests that many homeowners might have saved tens of thousands of dollars had they held adjustable-rate mortgages rather than fixed-rate mortgages during the past decade, though this would not have been the case, of course, had interest rates trended sharply upward.

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20041129-mon.html#anchor0

Global rebalancing has quickly turned into the global blame game. “It’s the other guy,” exclaim Asians, Europeans, and Americans, when the issue of responsibility comes up. America’s Bush Administration views the rest of the world as suffering from a growth deficiency, largely brought about by under-consumption and excess saving. Conversely, Asians and Europeans view the United States as suffering from a saving deficiency brought about by over-consumption and government budget deficits. Who’s got it right?

The truth is, they probably all do. There can be no mistaking the extraordinary disparities in the global consumption dynamic in recent years. Over the 1996 to 2004 period, annual growth in US personal consumption expenditures averaged 3.9% -- nearly double the 2.2% pace recorded elsewhere in the so-called advanced world. Americans, for their part, have spent well beyond their means -- as those means are delineated by the US economy’s internal income generating capacity. Over the 1996 to 2004 period, annual growth in real disposable personal income averaged 3.4% -- fully 0.5 percentage point slower than average growth in consumer demand. As a result, the personal saving rate plunged from an already-depressed 4.6% level in 1995 to just 0.2% in September 2004. At the same time, the consumption share of US GDP surged to a record 71% by mid-2002 -- an extraordinary breakout from the 67% share that prevailed, on average, over the 25 years from 1975 to 2000. Never before has an advanced economy taken consumerism to such excess.

There’s no deep secret as to how the American consumer pulled it off. It’s all about the emerging power of the asset economy -- namely, how US consumers have turned increasingly from income generation to wealth creation in order to sustain current consumption. At work since 1995 has been the strongest and most sustained surge of above-trend growth in real household sector net worth of the modern-day, post-World War II era. American consumers were quick to make use of this windfall as an increasingly important supplemental source of purchasing power.

Moreover, there has been an important shift in the asset economy that took the US consumption dynamic to excess in recent years. The first wave came from the stock market, as household equity holdings surged from about 13% of total assets in 1991 to 35% at the peak in 2000. During the final stages of the equity bubble, individual stock portfolios supplanted real estate as the US household sector’s most important asset. By early 2000, residential property had fallen to less than 25% of total household sector assets, more than ten percentage points below the equity portion. It was only after the equity bubble popped that the asset economy took its most extraordinary twist. The increasingly wealth-dependent American consumer never skipped a beat. In large part, that was because the equity bubble immediately morphed into an even more powerful strain of asset appreciation -- a sustained burst of US house price appreciation that has continued to this very day. As a result, the real-estate share of total household assets rose back to 30% -- recapturing its role as the consumer’s leading asset class. According to Alan Greenspan, American households currently own some $14 trillion in real estate -- almost double their total equity holdings (see his February 23, 2004 speech, “Understanding Household Debt Obligations,” at the Credit Union National Association 2004 Governmental Affairs Conference, Washington, D.C.).

more...

http://www.progress.org/2004/fold364.htm

The Real Estate Bubble

by Fred E. Foldvary, Senior Editor

A soap bubble is a ball made of a thin film of soap dissolved in water. Soap bubbles are ephemeral, lasting a short time before bursting. There are also bubbles in the economy, classes of assets whose prices inflate like air in an expanding balloon and then collapse.

The expansion of asset-price bubbles is unsustainable, as the prices rise above what is warranted by normal returns and demands. The asset prices crash. A recent bubble was the technology boom of the late 1990s, when Internet and other stocks rose to levels that could not be justified from the likely profits of the firms.

The most important bubble in the economy is that of real estate. There has been a real estate cycle with a duration of 18 years since the early 1800s. Real estate booms have often become a bubble. It happened during the 1920s in the US, especially in Florida. It happened in Japan during the 1980s. And it is happening again now in the US.

The last bottom of the real estate cycle in the US was in 1990, when there was a recession. Real estate prices have been rising since then, and were not at all deterred by the downturn of 2001. Real estate speculation has carried real estate prices in some parts of the US, such as California, to heights that cannot be sustained when interest rates rise as the Federal Reserve reverses its low-interest policy. Another crash is coming.


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Any comments? How accurate is this article or is it just hysteria? I want to buy a place, but this article says that it would not be wise until after 2008 according to the real estate cycle. I find it interesting that both of these articles were on Yahoos site today, too:

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http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=4&u=/nm/20041130/bs_nm/economy_homes_dc

Fannie, Freddie Loan Cap to Rise in 2005

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal regulators on Tuesday allowed U.S. mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy larger individual mortgages next year following a jump in home prices, a move that would lower borrowing costs for buyers of more expensive homes.

And

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=509&ncid=749&e=9&u=/ap/20041130/ap_on_bi_ge/fannie_mae_fraudulent_loans

Feds Order Fannie to Forfeit Gains

WASHINGTON - Fannie Mae, eager to unload a batch of fraudulent loans it bought from one of its authorized lenders, turned a blind eye as independent lender James McLean resold the bogus notes to Ginnie Mae in one of the nation's largest mortgage schemes, according to the Justice Department (news - web sites) and federal housing officials.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38321.4792373843-828296898&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- The National Association of Securities Dealers said Tuesday it has fined 29 securities firm more than $9.2 million for late disclosures of reportable information their brokers, including complaints from customers, regulatory actions, criminal charges and convictions. The NASD said the firms had a total of more than 8,000 instances of late disclosures. It also said NASD has prohibited Merrill Lynch (MER) and Wachovia (WB) from registering new brokers for five business days based on the number of their reporting violations and previous regulatory filing history. NASD said the firms that were fined agreed to conduct internal audits to evaluate their reporting compliance systems.

Won't it be fun when FICA funds can be diverted into this "free market"?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041129/fannie_mae_fraudulent_loans_1.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Fannie Mae, eager to unload a batch of fraudulent loans it bought from one of its authorized lenders, turned a blind eye as independent lender James McLean resold the bogus notes to Ginnie Mae in one of the nation's largest mortgage schemes, according to the Justice Department and federal housing officials.

"Fannie should have been a better citizen in advising the respective regulatory agencies of the potential fraud that existed here," said Kenneth Donohue, the top cop for the Department of Housing and Urban Development. "The coordination between these agencies is paramount to make sure these cases don't happen or don't get worse."

Last month, a U.S. District Court in Charlotte, N.C., in a sealed ruling, ordered Fannie to forfeit $6.5 million in "criminally derived" gains received from McLean's First Beneficial Mortgage Co.

A company official declined to say whether Fannie will fight the forfeiture order. However, he said the company recently sought and received a 60-day extension on its Nov. 22 deadline to respond.

Judge Lacy Thornburg also directed the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to temporarily freeze the assets in Fannie's account there.

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/041130/financial_japan_citigroup_2.html

TOKYO (Reuters) - Citigroup's top executive in Japan endured unprecedented questioning by lawmakers on Tuesday over a scandal at the firm's private bank in the country, the latest turn in a high-profile case that has embarrassed the world's biggest financial company.

Citibank Japan CEO Douglas Peterson told a parliamentary finance committee that lax corporate governance and an "aggressive sales culture" were behind abuses at the private banking unit, ordered to be closed by regulators in September.

"What's very important now is that we learn from those mistakes," Peterson said after repeating a public apology issued by Citigroup Chief Executive Charles Prince in Tokyo last month.

It was the first time the Upper House committee had called a non-Japanese witness, reflecting the intense public interest generated by the case.

The private bank was cited for widespread violations including manipulative sales practices and a failure to screen out money laundering, and its closure was one of the harshest punishments issued to a foreign financial firm in Japan.

more...

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6617856/

NEW YORK - Bank of New York Co. Inc. is talking to U.S. prosecutors about paying a $24 million penalty in order avoid a criminal indictment on charges of failing to report suspicious activity at a branch, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.

Suspicious activity could be an indication of money laundering, fraud and other financial crimes.

The No. 9 U.S. bank is in discussions with the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of New York to pay the penalty, cooperate with prosecutors and agree to independent monitoring of its compliance program, people familiar with the matter told the newspaper.

The case concerns RW Professional Leasing Services Corp., which arranges financing when health care providers want to lease medical equipment, and Myrna Katz, a Bank of New York branch manager who has been indicted for bank and wire fraud.

more...

11:39
Dow 10,453.42 -22.48 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,105.10 -1.77 (-0.08%)
S&P 500 1,176.57 -2.00 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.359% +0.029
NYSE Volume 511,711,000
Nasdaq Volume 744,910,000

U.S. stocks fall on oil, dollar jitters, mixed data

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks lost ground Tuesday as rising energy prices and renewed weakness in the dollar combined with a mixed batch of data to raise concern about the outlook for the economy.

Within the benchmark index, Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT - News) fell 1.3 percent and Home Depot (NYSE:HD - News) slipped 1 percent on report showing cautious spending by consumers.

-cut-

Oil, dollar, gold, bonds

Crude-oil futures topped $50 a barrel amid expectations for tightening U.S. petroleum supplies and indications the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may seek to rein in production.

OPEC has indicated that it will "either lower production quotas or vow to roll back production to current quotas," said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Alaron Trading. "It appears the falling dollar has OPEC wanting the price of oil to go higher as compensation," he said. OPEC is set to meet on Dec. 10 in Cairo.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041130/d684bf4012ed194335edb113fc4839ac_1.html

Dow 10,452.11 -23.79 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,103.63 -3.24 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 1,176.36 -2.21 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.373% +0.043

NYSE Volume 613,286,000
Nasdaq Volume 862,915,000

12:05PM: Stocks have shown little vigor this morning as few upside catalysts and mixed economic data have kept a lid on any sort of rally... Selling pressure has been most pronounced in retail, as stocks remain under fire following Wal-Mart's (WMT 52.35 -0.80) November sales warning yesterday and a handful of downgrades within the sector... Most of the blue chips, in fact, have trended lower as crude oil continues to bounce around the $50/bbl level again... Homebuilding, however, has caught a bid despite an ongoing sell off in bonds taking the 10-year yield to its highest levels (3.37%) since August...

Computer hardware has also extended yesterday's gains, helping to position the Nasdaq closer to the flat line... Meanwhile, this morning's economic data came in a bit mixed... The November Consumer Confidence index fell to 90.5 (consensus was 96.0) from a revised 92.9 in October, initially adding concerns regarding overall holiday spending... But a relatively strong Chicago PMI reading of 65.2 (consensus was 62.0) and an upwardly revised Q3 GDP reading (to 3.9%) contributed to a sense the overall economy remains strong...

The former suggested that manufacturing remains solid and signaled a upward surprise to the ISM Index tomorrow, whereas the latter helped reaffirm the recent advance seen in equities...

Last trade 81.99 Change +0.06 (+0.07%)

Settle 81.93 Settle Time 23:36

Open 82.03 Previous Close 81.93

High 82.22 Low 81.57

Last tick: 2004-11-30 11:43:28 ET
30-min delayed quote.

I've heard a lot of web rumors of boycotting Walmart since the election due to their huge contributions to Bush's reelection campaign. I'm not a financial expert, but could their less than expected November sales be in a small part due to a boycott?

go here - it will make you feel so much better :D

http://www.karmabanque.com

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

Like the little girl who plaintively questioned the existence of Santa Claus, many regard the notion of an emerging markets’ style financial crisis on American shores in similarly sceptical terms. It is often said that “since America is a net international borrower, in its own currency, there is little to fear from a lower dollar.” This line of reasoning tends to obscure the fact that balance of payments crises are often precipitated by flaws in the underlying credit structure which are only later accentuated by the misalignment between foreign and domestic denominated debt. It is probably more accurate to say that a balance of payments crisis is symptomatic of a credit system run amok. Although the US may not have foreign exchange risk per se, its fragile financial system is still rife with “Ponzi” style financing.

Analyses of current account deficits almost invariably move on to discussions about currencies, because devaluations are often seen as the adjustment mechanism to sort out the former. So one reads copious reports these days (the latest being a paper by Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff, “The Unsustainable US Current Account Deficit”) on the need for a substantial dollar devaluation required to reduce the US current account deficit. This is probably accurate as far as it goes, but it only deals with part of the picture. Seldom do analysts discuss the underlying credit structure which often precipitates a substantial current account deficit in the first place.

In this context, it is worthwhile examining America’s lingering debt disease to ponder whether an emerging markets style balance of payments crisis is indeed possible. It is said that the dollar’s unique status as the world’s major reserve currency has eliminated any potential vulnerabilities posed through the mismatch of domestic assets against foreign liabilities, which was clearly a problem for countries such as Thailand, Korea, or Mexico. But a fresh look suggests that the efforts of US policy makers to avoid a full unwinding of the 1990’s stock market bubble through the encouragement of a credit bubble and a housing bubble has, despite something of a recovery, made America’s underlying credit structure even more vulnerable to a precipitous withdrawal of foreign capital.

The incessant talk about the dollar’s weakness now dominating the airwaves and newspapers tends to ignore this fact. That the US capital markets have not yet collapsed is paraded as proof that the falling dollar that the US faces no risk as an international borrower obtaining international credit in its own currency. The Panglossian optimism underpinning such remarks obscures other more serious flaws: To offset the shortfall in domestic savings, the US private sector has been borrowing from abroad. Years of external borrowing have made the United States the world’s largest debtor nation. Its net external liabilities, at 26% of GDP, are still less than levels associated with the external debt crises of other nations. But the US annual external borrowing or current account deficit is now approaching 6% of domestic income---an alarmingly high level for a mature industrialized economy. This furious rate of external debt issue has now placed the US economy on an explosive debt path that could easily take it to LDC junk bond status in only a few years.

True, even the borrowing from abroad is comprised of dollar-denominated debt, which has led many to the conclusion that the issuer of the world’s reserve currency faces no foreign exchange risk. It is probably more accurate to state that the dollar’s unique status as the world’s dominant reserve currency has inured investors to risks that might be more readily apparent if American debt was non-dollar denominated. The US has been able to trade off the dollar’s status as the world’s major reserve currency for a long time, rightly suspecting that foreigners would tolerate the US getting more deeply into debt than they would another country. However, in the long run, not even the issuer of the world’s reserve currency can avoid the relentless pull of economic gravity and the compounding arithmetic of debt trap dynamics. In fact, it appears to us that a number of longstanding economic shibboleths are about to be blown apart if the dollar’s descent continues.

more...

Dow 10,446.27 -29.63 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,100.95 -5.92 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 1,175.93 -2.64 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.355% +0.025

NYSE Volume 939,559,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,233,744,000

2:00PM: Still not a great deal of conviction as a bearish bias remains intact... Decliners outpace advancers on the Big Board 19 to 13 while declining issues on the Nasdaq have maintained a 18 to 12 edge over advancing issues... Volumes at both the NYSE (896 mln) and the Nasdaq (1.18 bln) have also been running below the 20 day average...

General sentiment with the semiconductor group has deteriorated going into the last two hours of trading, as investors remain cautious ahead of a mid-quarter business updates from Novellus Systems (NVLS 26.97 -0.82), after tonight's close, and from Intel (INTC 22.56 -0.50), due on Thursday...SOX -1.07, NYSE Adv/Dec 1335/1924, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1249/1806

1:30PM: Little change in the past half hour, as the major indices continue to chalk up losses... Contributing to the overall negative tone has been weakness in financial, in particular, heavy losses in the online brokerage space... Potential consolidation within the group has prompted some analysts to take a closer look at a few of the leaders... Banc of America picked up coverage of E*Trade (ET 14.00 -0.21) with a Neutral rating, despite expected lower revenues from falling commission fees...

The firm also initiated coverage of Ameritrade (AMTD 13.93 -0.39) with a Sell rating and a $12 price target, citing potential margin erosion due to more intense price competition... NYSE Adv/Dec 1403/1814, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1318/1689

Last trade 81.89 Change -0.04 (-0.05%)

Settle 81.93 Settle Time 23:36

Open 82.03 Previous Close 81.93

High 82.22 Low 81.57

Last tick: 2004-11-30 13:42:15 ET
30-min delayed quote.

http://www.thestreet.com/comment/aaronpressman/10196468.html

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and his fellow central bankers may bear some responsibility for the dollar's decline -- but don't expect them to do much to end the trend. After all, the Fed didn't cut rates to such historic lows because the dollar was overvalued. And now that the dollar is on the wane, they've got bigger problems to deal with.

In theory, the historically low short-term interest rates the Fed kept in place over the past few years should have prompted global investors to move money to countries where they can earn a better return. So with the Fed now raising rates and the economy still doing well, shouldn't the dollar rally as those investors are lured back?

It's not working out that way this time because, to borrow from the classic Terry Gilliam movie Brazil, there's been a little complication with the dollar's complications.

For a while at least, the "complication" of Asian central banks buying Treasuries limited the dollar's decline. Instead of converting trade surpluses back into local currencies by selling dollars, they kept their export bounty and amassed huge dollar reserves. Now that complication has developed a complication of its own as investors realized that central bank demand was hardly unlimited. Russia and China recently have given indications that they might be tiring of owning so many dollars.

"Interest rates aren't the only thing that matters," explained T. Rowe Price chief economist Alan Levenson. "It's the current account deficit and the fiscal deficit that have been exerting downward pressure."

more...

I come in and read the thread and I'm a bit overwhelmed. So much to take in and none of it good. It's a good thing there is terrorism and war to distract the people with, if they got a good look at all of this it would be pandemonium in the streets.

2:29 and here is a miniscule snapshot:

Dow 10,438.36 -37.54 (-0.36%)
Nasdaq 2,098.41 -8.46 (-0.40%)
S&P 500 1,174.99 -3.58 (-0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.344% +0.014
NYSE Volume 985,658,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,281,809,000

Who's going to make the first big move on the currency stage from this point? I have a real take-cover feeling about this.

Julie

Dow 10,436.29 -39.61 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,098.51 -8.36 (-0.40%)
S&P 500 1,174.70 -3.87 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.336% +0.006
NYSE Volume 1,078,109,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,387,928,000

Only an hour left, will we stray far from this holding pattern?

Julie

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-11/30/content_395899.htm

An executive of Shanghai Gold Exchange yesterday said that China's sole national gold bourse has made submissions to the central bank to attract foreign gold traders.

"We are striving to invite qualified international banks and gold firms to directly conduct transactions in our exchange," said Wang Zhe, general manager of the gold exchange.

"The move will build more channels for us to integrate with the international gold market," Wang said yesterday at an international forum on global gold outlook, infrastructure support and market development in Beijing.

At present, there are 128 domestic membership traders in the gold exchange, including commercial banks and gold producers and processors, which conduct spot transactions using renminbi.

The exchange was launched in late 2002, marking a substantial step towards liberalization of China's gold market. Previously, domestic gold producers had to sell all of their gold to the central bank.

more...

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-11/27/content_395351.htm

With more cash in their wallets, many Chinese are looking for ways to diversify their investments to guarantee the security of assets and to even seek a profit.

For many, gold seems to be the favored choice. The second batch of 2005 New Years Celebration Gold Bars have just gone on sale in Beijing and being warmly received by potential consumers.

Ranging from 50 to 1,000 grams, the gold bars are selling at 128 Yuan per gram, an increase of 3 Yuan compared with the first batch of bars that sold out quickly just a week ago.

Wang Chunli, general manager of Beijing Caibai Department Store, said, "The main reason for the increase in price is because the international gold price rose. Our price will move closely with the Chinese benchmark."

The international gold price has been on a up-trend recently. On November 25, the international gold price hit almost a 16-year high of 452.75 US dollars per ounce. But this small increase has not frightened consumers away.

Wang said, "The first 300 kilograms of gold bars sold out very quickly. The second batch is only 200 kilograms, but we've received orders of more than 1,000 kilograms. If it is possible, we will try every means to provide a big enough third batch to meet the demand, maybe another 300 kilograms."

more...

I'm trying to discern whether residential rent prices will go up or down in the coming real estate collapse. If millions of people lose their homes, and those homes are purchased by speculators, will renters pay more or less for housing?

I know this is a small issue, and hope you all don't mind my bringing it up here.

(I'm a landlord). If it bears less, then rents will go down. If less can afford to buy or carry a mortgage, then rents will trend upward.

Is there going to be a real estate crash and in what localities - and what will the effects be in terms of whether to purcase property now or later, and in which sort of location?

On one hand more renters (less owners/more foreclosed owners) could increase number of renters and therefore increase rents as rental property becomes more scarce. In a jobs loss economy some potential renters may instead move in with extended family or downgrade rental from individual apartment to share situations.

BUT...

First, possible reasons for regional real estate crashes or slowdowns: substantially (2%) higher mortgage interest rates, increased foreclosures pulling down market prices, tightening of lending rules reduces number of buyers after increased loan failure, a glut of new available housing for sale (overbuilding), a decrease of quantity of potential home purchasers after percentage of possible owners hits peak, regional job loss, lack of increase in household income (outsourcing or wage stagnation)...

Why US housing might not crash in some regions: In the most international cities or regions foreign currency might step in while dollar is weakened and buy US real estate, also, possibly interest rates don't increase much and wages stop stagnation (seems unlikely - but possible), population increases could cause housing shortage (also seems unlikely - would require increased emmigration). Population shifts could happen regionally as areas fall in or out of favor.

Rentals: Hypothetically, lets say a regional sales market crashes. This could increase the number of rental properties, as those owners who are forced to move (work, increased family size, relocation, divorce, etc...) put homes on the rental market rather than sales markets, under duress.

It seems to me the intrinsic value of housing stock, whether for sale or as rental property, will be a reflection of whether there is a shortage of housing available or a glut of housing available - and also a result of pricing power - who has it? Buyers or owners? Renters or landlords?

Don't know if any of this makes sense, just some ideas to think about.

What I wonder: assuming there is either a housing slow down or crash on the coasts, how far could prices tumble, or would prices simply stop inflating?

....still looking for info.

I wonder if there is an example from our recent history. What happened to rents in the last period of stagflation? I guess that would be the 1970s.

But I don't know what will happen. I'd love to get people's opinions on this subject as well!

http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s)


2004-11-01 Monday, November 1 0.817728 USD
2004-11-02 Tuesday, November 2 0.815461 USD
2004-11-03 Wednesday, November 3 0.825014 USD
2004-11-04 Thursday, November 4 0.829669 USD
2004-11-05 Friday, November 5 0.834655 USD
2004-11-08 Monday, November 8 0.838574 USD
2004-11-09 Tuesday, November 9 0.83682 USD
2004-11-10 Wednesday, November 10 0.834934 USD
2004-11-12 Friday, November 12 0.838997 USD
2004-11-15 Monday, November 15 0.831117 USD
2004-11-16 Tuesday, November 16 0.838082 USD
2004-11-17 Wednesday, November 17 0.838574 USD
2004-11-18 Thursday, November 18 0.8285 USD
2004-11-19 Friday, November 19 0.838364 USD
2004-11-23 Tuesday, November 23 0.842815 USD
2004-11-24 Wednesday, November 24 0.846525 USD
2004-11-26 Friday, November 26 0.849257 USD
2004-11-29 Monday, November 29 0.844167 USD
2004-11-30 Tuesday, November 30 0.840195 USD




Looks like the loonie's peaked at least for the moment. It's having a nowhere day today. The only news of note is that Dubya's in town (along with a lot of protestors).

Here's the blather.

The December Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight due to spillover selling following Monday's decline as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at .8421. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If December continues this fall's rally, monthly resistance crossing at .8595 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .8380 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6957563

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has set final anti-dumping duties of up to 112.81 percent on shrimp from China and up to 25.76 percent on those from Vietnam to offset unfair pricing, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday.

It slashed the top rate for Vietnam from a preliminary level of 93.13 percent set in July, but left the top rate for China unchanged.

The anti-dumping case pits U.S. shrimpers who harvest their product from the sea against farmers in six Asian and Latin American countries who raise shrimp in ponds.

The Commerce Department will announce final duties on the four other countries -- Thailand, Brazil, Ecuador and India -- on Dec. 20. Together, the six countries exported about $2.67 billion worth of shrimp to the United States in 2003.

The Southern Shrimp Alliance, which represents shrimp harvesters in eight southern U.S. states, alleges the countries are "dumping" excess production in the United States at unfairly low prices to grab market share.

more...

Dow 10,428.02 -47.88 (-0.46%)
Nasdaq 2,096.81 -10.06 (-0.48%)
S&P 500 1,173.82 -4.75 (-0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.358% +0.028

NYSE Volume 1,554,360,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,879,391,000

There were a number of headlines surrounding individual companies on Tuesday, but none of those headlines carried any real market moving potential. Accordingly, the main point of interest for participants proved to be a batch of economic data that included the Q3 GDP revision, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, and the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index. Two of those reports - GDP and the Chicago PMI - were stronger than expected while the Consumer Confidence report was deemed disappointing... As the most influential report of the bunch, the Consumer Confidence report, which checked in at 90.5 versus the consensus estimate of 96.0 and the prior month's reading of 92.9, stood in the way of the indices establishing any upside momentum. By the same token, losses were held in check as the data altogether made it apparent that the underlying pace of economic activity remains quite solid... Q3 GDP was revised up to 3.9% from 3.7% and the Chicago PMI showed a reading of 65.2 for November (consensus 62.0), which was down from 68.5 the prior month but still indicative of expansion in the Chicago region...The Chicago PMI, incidentally, has a strong correlation with the national ISM Index that will be released Wednesday morning... Economists are expecting a reading of 57.0 for the ISM Index... Meanwhile, the major indices traded in a relatively narrow range most of the day, but end-of-the month profit taking kept the market confined to negative territory... November showed the best performace of any month so far in 2004, with the Dow and Nasdaq surging nearly 450 points and 130 points, respectively... As a result, investors booked profits across the board and in such sectors as financial, utility, materials, consumer staples, and retail...The latter was hardest hit, recording its weakest showing since August, as spillover from Wal-Mart's (WMT 52.19 -0.96) November sales miss and some downbeat analyst comments helped strip 1.9% of value from the S&P 500 Retail Index... Chip makers also exhibited weakness, with the Philadephia Semiconductor Index falling 1.3%, ahead of mid-quarter updates from Novellus Systems (NVLS 27.09 -0.70) and Intel (INTC 22.44 -0.62)... Sectors showing strength on the day were few and far between, with healthcare, computer hardware, disk drive, homebuilding and transportation inching higher... The latter gained ground as crude oil fell below $50 to close at $49.13, down $0.63... The 10-year note showed some strength late in the day, surging 8/32 to yield 4.28%, but closed down 9/32 to yield 4.35%... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1373/1952. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1416/1721.