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Economic growth at 3.9% in 3rd quarter (didn't see it posted)

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Bono71 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 09:26 AM
Original message
Economic growth at 3.9% in 3rd quarter (didn't see it posted)
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Tandalayo_Scheisskopf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 09:34 AM
Response to Original message
1. Strip out Defense Spending from that number.
Then see how much the economy really grew.

From what I understand, defense spending injects 3.5% on average.
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Bono71 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 10:21 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Wow...if that is correct, good grief...
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TahitiNut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 11:16 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. From the BEA release ...
Edited on Tue Nov-30-04 11:18 AM by TahitiNut
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 4.7 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent in the second. National defense increased 9.8 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent. Non-defense decreased 5.2 percent, in contrast to an increase of 4.4 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.9 percent.

According to the data, this increase in defense spending contributed 0.44 %points to the GDP increase 0f 3.9%. In terms of overall federal spending, it was offset by a reduction in federal non-defense spending equal to -0.12 %points. It is, as usual, far less than the increase in medical care spending of 0.59 %points, the largest jump in that category in two years.

It's noteworthy to me that both defense spending and medical care spending were a more significant contributor to GDP growth than the items chose by the BEA (and media) to highlight: final sales of computers and motor vehicles, 0.18 %points and 0.33 %points respectively.

There may be a harbinger of the long-awaited burst of the "housing bubble" since the increase in residential fixed investment went up by 0.10 %points, the lowest increase in three years.

http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/gdpnewsrelease.htm
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spinbaby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 10:25 AM
Response to Original message
3. Two yahoo headlines this morning
Earlier there was a headline about the U.S. economy seeing record growth. Now, not an hour later, there's a headline that says, "U.S. consumer confidence drops again."
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xchrom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 11:02 AM
Response to Original message
4. they'll revise it downward
in februrary.
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TahitiNut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 11:21 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. Next release -- December 22, 2004
Next release -- December 22, 2004, at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2004 (Final)
Corporate Profits: Third Quarter 2004 (Revised)
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