Asteroid 2004 MN Impact probability now 60 to 1

"..the odds against impact are still high, about 60 to 1, meaning that there is a better than 98 percent chance that new data in the coming days, weeks, and months will rule out any possibility of impact in 2029."

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_risk_041224.html

,...for a "miracle" story involving that multi-billion dollar military-corporate-complex "star wars" failure.

:tinfoilhat:

If there's a "big boom" thingy in the sky this year,...

:tinfoilhat:

A really big asteroid would be hard to destroy with a nuclear weapon, but one of this size could be shot out of the sky.

I thought they'd already dismissed the idea of blowing up big asteroids with nukes, as the resulting shower of smaller but still large stones would be pretty much curtains for human civilization.

We'd sure as shit better come up with a better answer than "NUKE IT!"

lots of boulders to rain down and cause havoc, but I believe that most of the radioactivity from detonation would remain in space near point of explosion. some would coat outer surface of rubble but be 'blown off' by heat of reentry and so not make it to earth.

that said, we'd still kiss our asses goodbye with the enviromental effects. Check out Discover magazine for more info on the blasts and damage caused by 65 and 125 million years ago 'encounters' with Big asteroids!

I still marvel at the wasted landscape - all the trees laid out like matchsticks - in the Tunguska blast in Russia near the beginning of the 1900s. That was a SMALL one that exploded in mid air - it did NOT plow into the earth to throw up all sorts of shit and leave a crater.

We can't even get a system like Patriot to work, what makes you think we can hit a small object with a relative velocity over 10,000 km/hr?

we can't even get our PRINTERS to work much less blow out an asteroid with some nukes:)

We should just send Bruce Willis up there. He'll be pushing 90yrs old by that time

For one thing, an asteroid would be nuked while it was still in space with a low relative velocity, not while it was entering the Earth's atmosphere at high velocity. Two, it would not result in a 'shower of radioactive boulders' as some people claim. Most of the rock would be vaporized by the heat of the blast, and the rest would be small enough to burn up in the atmosphere. Some people here would do well to remember a little basic science when it comes to these things.

I am not even sure how much is vaporized on the earth, as opposed to being pulverized and converted to small pieces of solid fallout. Presumably in space, the blast's effects would be mostly radiation related, unless the bomb was actually landed on the comet, as there would be no atmosphere to provide the medium for the concussion effect. A good part of the bomb's energy would be lost in directions opposite to the comet as well. There is still rather scanty knowledge of the physical composition of comets also. Some theories say they are not so much a solid object as a collection of space junk traveling in the same region of space.

Designing a vehicle that could catch up to an earth grazing comet or asteroid and land on it would be a difficult engineering task. I know that there has been at least one probe sent to an asteroid, but the orbital mechanics of that could have been done at the leisure of the planners. An earth grazer heading for us would be different - its relative velocity would be immense for any probe coming from earth, unless the probe passed it and swung back around. That would be difficult (impossible?), as a comet or asteroid wouldn't have much of a gravitational field to provide the necessary slingshot effect. That would mean the explosion would have to be during a flyby or collision course, and the timing would be tricky. And always, time would be of the essence.

It is hard to say how this idea would play out in practice. In principle, it would make sense to test it on a comet in a harmless orbit sometime soon. I doubt if that would happen though, as it would be considered an extravagance compared to "normal" military needs for money. Although, if a catastrophic event was imminent, the rich and powerful of the earth would have some motivation to put every wheel into motion.

Relatively little of the force of a nuclear detonation is actually concussive force. It's not like a conventional bomb. In an atmosphere, most of the blast wave is produced by the massive superheating of the surrounding atmosphere to 300,000 degrees. With no atmosphere to absorb it, you could argue that more of the heat actually goes to use on the asteroid.

In a flyby, much of the energy would be directed away from the comet or asteroid. How much, would depend on the relative distance between the bodies when the bomb went off.

I think if people really are worried about these events (I tend to think that they are over hyped), a test of these principles should be attempted. Right now we (I mean humanity) don't even have a launch vehicle for the job, as far as I know. Most of the recent interplanetary launches have taken advantage of rather intricate slingshot effects rather than using direct paths to the planet of interest. In an emergency, that probably wouldn't be possible.

I say we go blow up some harmless asteroid and see what happens. The money could come from the military budgets of the most powerful nations, which would bring down the chance of another war at the same time.:evilgrin:

when the target has a homing device ferkrissakes. There is no way they could target a missile against an asteroid traveling many times faster and not much larger than the missiles we keep missing.

This is fantasy. We are not capable of doing this.

you're right...launching ICBMs at the things wouldn't work at all

but that doesn't mean it isn't feasible.

is easy. The problem is doing it at many miles per second, and getting a missile with long enough range.

:)

The wisecracks are taken under advisement, but you are all looking at this from the standpoint of the year 2004 and operating on the assumption that this Administration will still be in power. Technology will surely improve in the next 24 years.

A small to medium sized asteroid can be blown to bits and pieces so small that they will burn up on re-entry. A very large rock, yes, that would be a problem, but that's not what were dealing with here. This asteroid is not large enough to cause global catastrophic damage.

"24 years" ago, Carter left the White House. He was the only US President in the 20th century to show real concern for the need to develop renewable energy sources. He had solar panels installed on the White House and wore sweaters inside the House as he set the temperature at 68 degrees...

He attempted to draw attention to the need to look for alternative fuels and to conserve energy. When he left the White House "24 years" ago, Reagan removed the solar panels and the GOP mocked Carter for his "doomsday" attitude. Well, here we are "24 years" later. No real advanced in renewable energy development and no independence from fossil fuels. We're right back where we were in 1976.

So while much can still happen in the next "24 years," I am less optimistic about how the Americans will approach a problem like this and solve it. Not while retropolitics remain the nation's zeitgeist.

The oxygen tank that exploded on Apollo 13, had it done so in the atmosphere, would have been like a Toyoda in Baghdad. But it did no structural damage to the capsule.
Without an atmosphere to push against, the concussive force of the explosion is reduced dramatically. Plus, you would have to have a direct hit. A near miss would do no good.
The best you could hope for is to knock it off course.

A nuke impacting on the surface would take off a few meters of it, but even if we could turn it into gravel, are we sure that a flying gavel pit would damage us less than a solid rock? I know that people better acquainted with the dynamics of this than I am are not certain that a flying gravel pit wouldn't actually be WORSE. And, as the debris will disperse somewhat, the cross section of impact would be larger, and the chance of at least some of the material will hit earth expands tremendously!

We need to do a few things. In order;

1. Put a beacon on it so we can track it to a millimeter.

2. Use that information to learn for certain if it will hit.

3. If it will not hit, fine.

4. If it will hit, we need to build a nuclear powered ion rocket motor, land it on the rock, and gently push it into an orbit that will miss us. If we get the motor on the rock early, the amount of change we need to make in its velocity to cause a miss is MUCH smaller than if we start pushing much later.

We have 25 years.

Is it a single iron asteroid or is it a bunch of smaller rocks held together by their own gravity. This will determine how it should be handled. A nuke would do little to a single asteroid unless it was buried inside the rock, and even then would leave us with a bunch of smaller projectiles to hit more places. If it's a bunch of rocks held together by their gravity, a nuke would do nothing but spread them apart for a while, but they would likely just reassemble before impact.

Or is it not a rock at all, but a dirty comet escaped from the Oort cloud? That would probably be the easiest to handle. One proposal suggests that a solar mirror made of thin mylar could be used to focus sunlight on it to heat a small area, resulting in creating a jet of water vapor to give it a change in angular velocity and push it's orbit away from earth.

The one thing we need is more information about it.

A so-called gravel yard would burn up during entry. A house sized rock, on the other hand, is believed to have been responsible for flattening 2100 square kilometers of forest over Tunguska in 1908.

That's generally the best solution, unless there's such short notice that there's no other choice.

I read the article and only saw that the rock, which is bigger than the meteorite which hit Arizona, would not do global damage, just local damage. Do you think if this becomes a probability rather than a possibility that scientists will be able to predict the general area it will land so that evacuation measures can be made in a timely fashion?

they move so fast

including our friend 2004 MN4:

http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/lists/Dangerous.html

and the list of those that approach Earth the closest. Guess who is on top of the list, and look at the one that approaches a year earlier:

PHA Close Approaches To The Earth

The following table lists the predicted encounters by Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) to within 0.05 AU of the earth from the start of this year through 2178. Objects with very uncertain orbits are excluded from this listing, as are recently discovered objects whose orbits have been computed without consideration of planetary perturbations. The distances quoted are from the nominal orbit solutions in the cited references and can be quite uncertain, particularly for one-opposition objects. Perturbed orbital solutions consider perturbations by eight major planets (Mercury to Neptune), three minor planets (Ceres, Pallas and Vesta) and treat the earth and the moon as separate perturbing bodies. For comparison, the mean distance of the moon is 0.0026 AU = 384400 km = 238900 miles. (1 AU is approximately the mean distance of the earth from the sun = 149597870 km = 92955810 miles.)

http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/lists/PHACloseApp.html

Risk Factor 4: Events meriting concern -- A close encounter, with 1% or greater chance of a collision capable of causing regional devastation.

At least it doesn't sound like a "planet buster", but it will likely cause major damage, no matter where it lands. Bad news if it hits land, especially in a densely populated area (think NYC). But an ocean impact could be even worse because of the tsunamis it would generate, which could wipe out entire coastlines.

I guess we could always panic and start talking about "Doomsday 2029", but hopefully, this might be one of those events that will finally pull mankind together for a common cause.

The list in the link provided shows a handful of rocks that will pass closer to Earth than the Moon. 2004 MN4 is the closest found so far, and the only rated above 1 on the Torino scale!

http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/lists/PHACloseApp.html

I'm sure that all those good Christian Prayer Warriors will pray so hard that Jesus will intervene.

Of course they'll be sad if it misses a blue state...

All things are wrought by God. If God intends for an asteroid to hit the earth that is what will happen. Any humans left ( And especially the insurance companies) will declare it "An act of God." And no insurance settlements will be made.

180

Does that include my only child who the Invisible Cloud Being sent to Iraq to be killed?

The only child that was buried in a VA cemetary several weeks ago?

Tell you what, you take your Invisible Cloud Being and the millions of fools who fall for that con game and stick it!

I should have added in 'Sarcasm'.

But since God is said to be in control of all things it is not possible for mere mortals to interfere. So why even try?

More Sarcasm.

180

Besides, this is 2029. It won't matter as * will make this planet an environmental slime or a radioactive rock.

...to save 2004 MN! Privatize astronomy now!

...chugged into the approach of Uranus half a second earlier than predicted, and three miles off course. That was its third "stop", having enountered Jupiter and Saturn.

Yeah, I know Uranus is a bigger target than 2004-MN. (Thank you for not resurrecting the worn-out old "Uranus" puns.) It's also a hell of a lot farther away. The people who do this kind of stuff (anybody been following Cassini and Huygens in the news?) aren't morans. I'm not a scientist, and would welcome corrections from anyone who is, but I believe that the calculations and technologies used in these things are very different from Patriot, or really from any surface-to-surface, or Earthbound, delivery system.

The good news, besides these scientists not being morans, is that this could be an international project against a threat that isn't caused by somebody's ideology or religion, but just is.

a percentage of a degree. I am sure they can figure something out if the need is there.

2004 MN4 has several opportunities. 2029 is the highest probability. I think it might get tricky to project after that since a close encounter is likely to alter a close Earth fly-by.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

~7.9e+10 kg at 12.59 km/s. Estimated impact energy: 1490 Megatons. That's nasty.

I doubt it is practical to blow up a 400-meter asteroid. Best bet, if an impact is highly probable, is to nudge it a bit when it is at perihelion. There would be a number of opportunities to do this in the years prior to 2029. I remember seeing some "Back or the envelope" calculations back in the 80's that suggested this could even be done without nuclear weapons even for larger rocks than this. The trick is to make absolutely sure that we are reducing, rather than increasing the likelyhood of collision.

It appears from the orbit that the asteroid will be "catching up" from us from below the ecliptic where the orbits intersect. I'm not sure if this means a southern hemisphere impact slightly is more likely.

Hopefully it is on a direct collision course with Crawford, Texas!

under 10 million bucks.

Telescreen report March 2028....Chairman Cheney has reaasured the nation that the damage from 2004MN would be "negligible" and a cost benefit report is due out before the collsion so the last drop of oil could be extracted before impact. "The great North American Chinese "New Colonies" have nothing to fear as gas will be plentifull and ready for people to tank up and flee."

I think there's one coming with my name on it. 60-1 odds?

Twenty four years from now, I won't really give a shit. I hope my brilliant 4 year old grandson will grow up and find a way to kick asteroid.

What's the hurry to reform it?

Is the Sky Falling?
A scientific consensus agrees that cosmic impacts have played a major role in Earth history and that they continue to pose a significant threat today. But there is a tremendous difference in the estimated dangers, stretching up to, or even over, the line that separates legitimate science from pseudoscience. Ten recent trade books are reviewed that span a broad range in interpretations.
http://www.csicop.org/si/9705/asteroid.html

How Dangerous are Earth-Crossing Objects?
http://www.pibburns.com/catastro/impacts.htm


From: B.J.PEISER@liverpool-john-moores.ac.uk
To: cambridge-conference@liverpool-john-moores.ac.uk
Date: 17. julij 1997 13:27
Subject: Re: IS THE SKY FALLING?
http://www.zetatalk.com/theword/tword04q.htm


Asteroid and Comet Impact Hazard
Bibliography (1992-2000)
http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/related/biblio/

Near-Earth Asteroid 2004 MN4 Reaches Highest Score To Date On Hazard Scale
Don Yeomans, Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas
NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office
December 23, 2004

A recently rediscovered 400-meter Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) is predicted to pass near the Earth on 13 April 2029. The flyby distance is uncertain and an Earth impact cannot yet be ruled out. The odds of impact, presently around 1 in 300, are unusual enough to merit special monitoring by astronomers, but should not be of public concern. These odds are likely to change on a day-to-day basis as new data are received. In all likelihood, the possibility of impact will eventually be eliminated as the asteroid continues to be tracked by astronomers around the world.

The brightness of 2004 MN4 suggests that its diameter is roughly 400 meters (1300 feet) and our current, but very uncertain, best estimate of the flyby distance in 2029 is about twice the distance of the moon, or about 780,000 km (480,000 miles). On average, an asteroid of this size would be expected to pass within 2 lunar distances of Earth every 5 years or so.

Most of this object's orbit lies within the Earth's orbit, and it approaches the sun almost as close as the orbit of Venus. 2004 MN4's orbital period about the sun is 323 days, placing it within the Aten class of NEAs, which have an orbital period less than one year. It has a low inclination with respect to the Earth's orbit and the asteroid crosses near the Earth's orbit twice on each of its passages about the sun.

December 24 Update: 2004 MN4 is now being tracked very carefully by many astronmers around the world, and we continue to update our risk analysis for this object. Today's impact monitoring results indicate that the impact probability for April 13, 2029 has risen to about 1.6%, which for an object of this size corresponds to a rating of 4 on the ten-point Torino Scale. Nevertheless, the odds against impact are still high, about 60 to 1, meaning that there is a better than 98% chance that new data in the coming days, weeks, and months will rule out any possibility of impact in 2029.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news146.html

Heck, we've put small satellites into orbit around an asteroid and had robotic fly-bys.

Blowing one up would be difficult, dangerous, and unlikely.

One idea I've heard bandied about is something along the lines of putting an ion propulsion engine on an asteroid and changing its orbit a little at a time over the course of many years.

"Oh Jay-Zuss, After I raise a few million more dollars, tell me where that asteroid deflector is hidden on the Indian reservation just like that old Star Trek episode..."

Sock it to me! I'm ready! Yee-hah!

Nostradamus predicted the end of the world in 3797 AD...

That is when we ascend from our current plane of existence into a harmonious relationship with the universe. There will be no need to end the world because the 'evil doers' will all get the message and chill. We will all live happily ever after if we live that long.

No wonder they came up with this shit...

They were just casual users. They were believers in 'harm reduction' rather than lifetime sobriety. Nice pic!!! Makes sense to me. Hmmm...

My cave should be ready soon....

the lizard people have no more power because everybody ignores them. It is those folks who will need a cave. You'll be fine!

where the knowledge of impending global doom, obsolesces all of man's petty bullshit. Hostility, avarice, envy... neutralized by the understanding that none will be spared, dissolve into a sense of universal kinship. The last days, hours, and moments of life on earth are spent loving, laughing, strolling, and reminiscing. For the first time, people are truly free and happy.

and just never got around to it.Maybe they were just procrastinating.

Update, Dec. 25, 9:47 p.m. ET: The risk of an impact by asteroid 2004 MN4 went up slightly on Saturday, Dec. 25. It is now pegged at having a 1-in -45 chance of striking the planet on April 13, 2029. That's up from 1-in-63 late on Dec. 24, and 1-in-300 early on Dec. 24.

Astronomers still stress that it is very likely the risk will be reduced to zero with further observations. And even as it stands with present knowledge, the chances are 97.8 percent the rock will miss Earth.

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_risk_041224.html

On edit:
NASA also seems to have revised the mass estimates upward to 8.3e+10 kg and the impact energy to 1600 Megatons of TNT

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

"Asteroid 2004 MN4 is thought to be about 1,300 feet (400 meters) long. That's not large enough to create a mass-extinction event, like the one that scientists say contributed to the demise of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. But if the asteroid hit the wrong place at the wrong time, it could cause a giant tsunami wave or deliver a nuclear-scale blast."

Fortunately, that's a big "if." There have been only a limited number of sightings of 2004 MN4, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena. As a result, astronomers have to provide for a wide margin of error in plotting the asteroid's future orbit, and that's the main reason why they see a slight chance of a collision on Friday, April 13, 2029.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6751433/

Then again, the possible impact dats is a FRIDAY THE 13TH and everyone knows that's very bad luck!

CSICOP will probably host a very special Superstition Bash that day:


The Center for Inquiry-joint new headquarters of CSICOP and CODESH-is open, and superstition is never going to be the same. Join us on Friday the 13th (of October, that is) for a light-hearted evening that will send a very serious message about superstition (two thumbs down) and critical thinking (two thumbs up).

From the moment you walk into the Center lobby-under a huge ladder-you'll know this is no ordinary skeptics meeting. We've invited local and regional media to watch us break a mirror, spill salt, open umbrellas indoors, and generally defy every kind of "bad luck" superstition associated with Friday the 13th.

* Full-size mirror shattered by A.M. Buffalo's Brian Kahle
* Black cat-path crossing
* Mass umbrella-opening
* Remarks by:
o CSICOP Chair Paul Kurtz,
o CSICOP Senior Research Fellow Joe Nickell,
o Journalist-magician Henry Gordon
o Folklorist Phillips Stevens (University of Buffalo)
* Snacks and soft drinks will be served.
* Tours of the new Center for Inquiry, including its libraries and seminar rooms

Be a part of WNY's biggest skeptical media event. Help us show the world how to laugh in the face of superstition and magical thinking!

Men, please wear hats (especially inside)
Everyone, please bring an umbrella (to open indoors)

http://www.csicop.org/events/friday13.html



The Superstition Bash is an event which explores the fascinating world of belief through history. Learning activities, informational displays, fun experiments, entertaining games, educational exhibits, and much more, are all part of the festivities.

The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal (CSICOP) and Skeptical Inquirer Magazine held their first Superstition Bash in the early 1990s. A diverse audience attended the event and the bash has been gathering steam ever since. Events can now be found around the world, organized at multiple venues and attracting people of all ages and interests.

Explore the possibilities of hosting a Superstition Bash in your community!

http://www.csicop.org/superstition/

then it would seem pretty fucking catastrophic.

For land impacts, you can use this tool to estimate crater size and TNT equivalent:

http://www.classzone.com/books/earth_science/terc/content/investigations/es2506/es2506page08.cfm

For 2004 MN4, I used 12 km/s, 400-meter diameter and assumed rock composition. The crater size aslo depends on impact angle, which at this point is impossible to determine. I came up with 8.92 km for a 90 degree angle down to 4.48 km for a 10 degrees.

An ocean impact is far more likely, but I have not found an impact-tsunami calculator.

(somewhat off-topic, for a smile in these dark times)

What would happen if a neutron star the size of the moon smacked into the earth at the speed of light?

Inputs:
Projectile Diameter: 10000 km
Projectile Density: 80000 kg/m3 (iron x 10, probably an underestimate)
Impact Velocity: 300000.00 km/s
Impact Angle: 45 degrees

Output:
Energy: 1.88 x 1042 Joules = 4.50 x 1026 MegaTons TNT
Transient Crater Diameter: 2.9 million km
Final Crater Diameter: 20 million km

We might not make it.

http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/

piece of human garbage running the planet into the ground.

If not, I'll settle for it crashing into De Lay's district!

A 60 megaton nuclear weapon = vaporization of an 80 mile radius. What does 1490 megatons mean, especially when it will make a bigger crater than that in Arizona.

They deserve it for sending my only child to die in Iraq.

We must send soldiers to, knowing some will die. Soldiers know that is possible and are brave enough to still be soldiers.

In the best of causes it is still heartbreaking.

When there is no true higher cause they are being sent to fight for...the loss must be filled with all the more pain and anger and confusion.

I am so sorry for your loss...I cry when I see those fresh young faces, and my heart aches for those who loved them.

I am not a church goer but I do know life goes on death, your child is more then fine and you will see them again. But even utter certainty of that does not erase the pain of not having them in this world with you now, to touch and see and hear.

I am so sorry.

Send some suicide bombers up there to take care of it. Do something useful for a change.

it could work, theoretically. hope it's accuracy is better than dubya's "star wars" interceptors.

NASA Set to Launch First Comet Impact Probe

LAUNCH STATUS:
Launch Date: January 12, 2005
Launch Window: 1:08:20 p.m or 1:48:04 p.m. EST
Location: Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla.

MISSION OVERVIEW:
Deep Impact is an ambitious mission aiming to accomplish the incredible: Blast a hole in comet Tempel 1 in an effort to see what it's made of. Comets like Tempel 1 are thought to have existed since the early days of our Solar System. Scientists suspect that frozen within these celestial nomads are the same chemical building blocks that lead to the formation of water -- and life -- here on Earth. Do comets and our own planet have something in common? This clever mission could answer the question once and for all.

Comet Impact:
July 4, 2005

Impact Velocity:
23,000 mph

Spacecraft Size:
Flyby spacecraft - nearly as large as a Volkswagen Beetle automobile.

Impactor spacecraft - about the same dimensions as a typical living room coffee table.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/deepimpact/main/index.html

Oh shit, thats not brighter, that's a flaming rock from the cosmos!

Oh well, with my arthritis, I don't want to live forever anyway.

social security.

2.7%
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?2.7e-02

Other details here:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

New mass estimate:
7.9e+10 kg

Impact energy: 1500 Megatons of TNT

That's an awful close pass!



Remember that everytime is passes the Earth, its orbit is affected.

I heard the approximate radius (maybe diameter?) of the object was about 400 meters, compared to the earth's radius of about 12,000,000 meters. So that is about 1:30,000 in linear measure, or about 1:27000X10e9 in mass, or in other words a mass differential of about 27 trillion times. Even a fairly close approach would have a negligible effect given that mass differential.

Note: these were just off the cuff calculations, and are approximations.

On edit - it is a close graze though, from the diagram.