STOCK MARKET WATCH, TUESDAY SEPT 16....(#1)

I think chimpy's wealthy friends will artificially drive up the indexes before the election, so buy in Feb, sell in Oct! Cynical? No, realistic.

Real Earnings dropped 0.3% in August, following a 0.1% drop in July.
The american people are getting hammered here.

A couple of things coming up on the economic calendar...at 8:30 we can expect the CPI (Cnsumer Price Index) and a look at inflation pressures. Also, the Fed is meeting and should give us an idea of their thinking around 2:15, just in time for an afternoon "miracle" or "disaster". Tomorrow will bring housing into focus with the building permits and housing starts in the morning, while Thursday is our regular Initial Claims (unemployment) and a look at "leading indicators".

I've got some things to do and won't be around as much, but there is enough news to keep things off-balance (west coast and the recall, east coast and the hurricane, what will Greenspin say, etc)

We're gonna need that caffeine

:donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut:

Will we have an exciting day or another yawner? No telling.

I leave in a bit to go help my local Dems fix up our office. Gearing up for a big year and so we need to prepare. Can't overthrow the government if you are unorganized.

Like Maeve said, lots of news to keep things rolling. Of course the real reaction and then the artificial pumping often cancel each other out resulting in a seemingly dull day......

BTW, loved the Toon Ozy!

I hope all have a great day. I'll check in before I leave and then upon return. :hi:

Julie

With the laundry list of figures and reports due - I'd say there's no telling where this day will lead us. I had to tear myself away from the news of the advance copy of the David Kay report: NO weapons of mass destruction found in Iraq. I am scratching my head in wonder how our great leaders could havemissed this one. Such news also makes me wonder how our invasion of a sovereign state, resulting in the deaths of thousands of innocent people, our flagrant violation of many international laws, conventions and our own Constitution will all play in the grand scheme of market fundamentals.

To find out, do we really need to wait until the waiter brings us the check?

To find out, do we really need to wait until the waiter brings us the check?

We are Americans! We won't pay any attention to the cost until the bill, the only unpleasantries our media lets us ponder are those that inspire fear. Terra! Terra! Terra!!!

Money and (apparently) cerdibility mean nothing when your very life is on the line, dontcha know? ;-)

Julie

Christina Ampoure (sp) said yesterday that the networks muzzled themselves and fell in line, they drank the kool-aid. Today she is being disciplined by the CNN administration.

In the Auto news, Ford will close 4 plants and Chrysler will close their plant in Indianapolis, two separate storie but I only have the link to one of them:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=716&e=15&u=/nm/20030916/bs_nm/autos_uaw_dc

http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/16/news/economy/cpi/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. consumer prices rose faster than analysts' expectations in August, the government said Tuesday.

The Labor Department reported that the consumer price index (CPI), a broad measure of prices paid by consumers, rose 0.3 percent after rising 0.2 percent in July. Economists, on average, expected CPI to rise 0.2 percent, according to a Reuters poll.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, however, the so-called "core-CPI" rose 0.1 percent, after rising 0.2 percent in July. Economists, on average, expected core CPI to rise 0.2 percent, Reuters said

The Battle for Money

Today there is a battle going on in the futures pit. This isn’t a battle over the major indexes or the price of stocks. It is battle that will determine the future price of silver and the price of gold. Like so many commodities the price of silver has languished over the last two decades mired in a bear market. While financial assets such as stocks and bonds have risen over a multi-decade period the price of most commodities from oil to gold have fallen. That is until recently. Since 2001 commodity prices have begun to climb and very few investors are paying attention. Financial assets are up this year for the first time in three years so investors once again are chasing paper assets bidding their prices back up into bubble territory. While investors focus on the run up this year in paper assets they are ignoring the more important trend in the rise of hard assets. The global financial markets are transitioning from a period of dominance of paper assets to one dominated by hard assets.

<..cut..>

As I have written in recent Storm Updates it appears that all is going well for the economy and the financial markets. Yet, underneath this apparent new-found prosperity there is a lingering doubt that something is wrong. If this is a recovery, there is no sign of it in the job market. If the economy is recovering, CEO’s are reluctant to invest in it. If indeed we are in prosperous times it isn’t reflected in business and consumer confidence. Investors are the only ones showing confidence by their willingness to plunge head first into high priced stocks. This morning’s Wall Street Journal featured a story about some of this year’s high tech flyers, which appear to be floating on “thin air.” While it appears that once reluctant and hesitant investors have become born again, raging bull contrarians should view that as a caution flag. Insiders or anyone else at the top of the company ladder who know more about their companies’ future prospects are bailing out and dumping their shares. There is a definite contrast between giddy investors whom have developed an insatiable appetite for buying stocks and company insiders who have developed an equal propensity for selling those very same shares. Technicians refer to this as “distribution,” a transfer of the ownership of shares from strong hands to weak hands.

<..cut..>

The rise in prices over the last three years is sufficient in size and duration to signal that the long-bear market in gold that lasted for two decades is now over. A few have noticed its gains, but few have understood what it signifies. To most the rise in gold was simply a defensive reaction to the fall in equities over the previous three years. Very few believe that gold’s rise has any long-term significance. Misunderstood are gold’s importance as a barometer of monetary conditions, and its historical role as a monetary asset. When gold rises relentlessly as is has in the last three years it is signaling approaching monetary storms. In this regard gold’s rise stands in sharp contrast to the general bullishness over economic prospects and a further continuance of rising equity prices. Only one of these trends can be true; either the bull market in paper is real or the rise in gold is temporary. Or maybe it is the other way around; rise in gold is real and the rise in equity prices is temporary.

Today’s Markets

Back at the casino, markets had difficulty today despite better than expected economic news. The East Coast is bracing for the possible arrival of Hurricane Isabel. The hurricane is the strongest storm to surface in years. The storm is aiming directly for the East Coast packing winds of up to 160 miles an hour. Such a storm of this magnitude could wreck havoc and damage to property that would be costly for property insurers. The shares of leading property underwriters fell as investors dumped shares ahead of the storm’s arrival.

more to read about all kinds of storms...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks are set for a mixed open on Tuesday as investors waited for the Federal Reserve's latest statement on the economy and digested data that showed inflation was moving slower than most had expected.

Investors are focusing on the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee, which is scheduled to release its closely studied remarks on the economy at 2:15 p.m. It is not expected to change the federal funds target rate from 1 percent.

more

Starting off cheerfully in the black

Dow 9,464.53 +15.72 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,850.50 +4.80 (+0.26%)
S&P 500 1,016.37 +1.57 (+0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.258% +0.013

Dow 9,471.76 +22.95 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 1,855.35 +9.65 (+0.52%)
S&P 500 1,018.22 +3.42 (+0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.265% +0.020

I see the wrap-up has a hint of run-for-your-lives in it. haha

I'm off to refurbish Dem HQ--will check back this afternoon!

Julie

Dow 9,490.77 +41.96 (+0.44%)
Nasdaq 1,863.20 +17.50 (+0.95%)
S&P 500 1,020.88 +6.07 (+0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 4.286% +0.041

Light volume, however (for what it's worth)

Dow 9,496.25 +47.44 (+0.50%)
Nasdaq 1,864.41 +18.71 (+1.01%)
S&P 500 1,021.22 +6.41 (+0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.302% +0.057

My son has an ear infection. So we're off to the doctor. You all be well.

For the whole family. Hope he's fixed up soonest!

Will the Fed cause a rally, a drop or no reaction when They Speak in a few minutes? :shrug:

Dow 9,496.53 +47.72 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq 1,867.56 +21.86 (+1.18%)
S&P 500 1,021.79 +6.98 (+0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 4.285% +0.040

Fed holds steady
Central bank cites signs of economic rebound but says higher inflation still a distant threat
http://money.cnn.com/

More as this is digested....

at http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/16/news/economy/fed/

In the statement accompanying its decision, closely watched by financial market participants for clues about the future of Fed policy, the Fed said that, even though business spending had improved, the labor market had weakened, and it was still worried about a dangerous "unwelcome fall" in already-low inflation.

"The Committee judges that, on balance, the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low remains the predominant concern for the foreseeable future," the statement said. "In these circumstances, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period."

But just because they won't say it doesn't mean they're not scared of it...

No real market reaction at this point.
Dow 9,501.93 +53.12 (+0.56%)
Nasdaq 1,867.42 +21.72 (+1.18%)
S&P 500 1,021.99 +7.18 (+0.71%)
10-Yr Bond 4.294% +0.049

Dow 9,529.30 +80.49 (+0.85%)
Nasdaq 1,875.81 +30.11 (+1.63%)
S&P 500 1,025.25 +10.44 (+1.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.259% +0.014

Looks like I've been missing quite a day! All's sunshine and flowers on Wall St. and Clark has entered the race. Wow!

At least we won't have to hear about Ahnold and group sex for a while, the sharks have another Dem to circle. Fresh meat as it were.

Hope some of you all made some $$ today. :-)

Julie

:crazy: The Fed said nothing that wasn't expected and the market soars. yeah, that makes sense...:dunce:
Dow 9,567.69 +118.88 (+1.26%)
Nasdaq 1,887.23 +41.53 (+2.25%)
S&P 500 1,029.42 +14.62 (+1.44%)
10-Yr Bond 4.291% +0.046

With this note from the 3:00 briefing:
3:00PM: The indices sprinted to new session highs in wake of the FOMC decision, with their run expedited by program trading and, in all likelihood, some short-covering activity... http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,567.34 +118.53 (+1.25%)
Nasdaq 1,887.26 +41.56 (+2.25%)
S&P 500 1,029.32 +14.51 (+1.43%)
10-Yr Bond 4.291% +0.046