By GEORGE JAHN
Wednesday, February 23, 2005 Updated at 7:55 AM EST
Associated Press
VIENNA — Oil prices fell Wednesday but held above $51 (U.S.) a barrel, retaining some of the previous day's surge as traders fretted about the impact of a weaker U.S. dollar on energy markets.
Analysts said continuing cold weather in the Western Hemisphere as well as supply concerns also set a high floor for crude.
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But market participants are looking past the OPEC meeting and are starting to worry about longer-term supply, said Michael Guido, director of commodity strategy in New York for French bank Societe Generale.
“Spare production capacity has always been an issue, but if these global oil demand forecasts are on the money, can supply keep up?” he asked. “OPEC seems to be at (maximum) capacity right now.”
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Oil is now 50 per cent more expensive than a year ago due to robust global demand, limited spare production capacity and concerns about disruptions to output, especially in insurgency-ridden Iraq and strike-hit Nigeria.
Traders have also cited concerns over winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere and the amount of U.S. energy stockpiles, especially of heating oil.
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