Who expert: Avian flu pandemic imminent

HO CHI MINH CITY, Vietnam (AP) - The world is on the verge of a deadly pandemic stemming from avian flu and governments need to start drafting emergency plans for the disease, a top international health official warned Wednesday.

Dr. Shigeru Omi, the World Health Organization's Western Pacific regional director, told the opening of a three-day conference on avian flu health agencies around the world need to better co-ordinate their fight against the virus. "We at WHO believe that the world is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic," Omi said.

<snip>

Animal health officials said there is still time to stop the disease from developing into a pandemic, by controlling transmission at the source.

"This means addressing the transmission of the virus where the disease occurs, in poultry, specifically free-range chickens and wetland dwelling ducks and thus curbing the disease occurrence in the region before it spreads to other parts of the world," said Dr. Samuel Jutzi, of the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization.

More: http://chealth.canoe.ca/health_news_detail.asp?news_id=13654

When a case is discovered, do they kill all the chickens, ducks and biproducts in the area? Does that stop it?

Just stockpile antivirals. Lots of news on stockpiles, but they are a myth

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&q=antiviral+stockpile&btnG=Search+News

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4305813.stm

So they may not exist now, but this must mean the production capacity is being hugely increased.

A new plant is being built in US, but meeting announced sales will be very difficult. Capacity may be in 100 million capsules per year, but that is only 3 million 30 days courses.

Maybe the presidents in Sri Lanka will provide wake up call. Infections out of control. 170 cases including health care workers. called myocarditis of unknown etiology

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=nn&ie=UTF-8&scoring=d&q=flu+myocarditis&btnG=Search+News

...preferably without protective gear.

WHO is sending virologists to Sri Lanka

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&q=myocarditis+flu

Bird flu fatalities causing problems in Florida

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&scoring=d&q=dog+influenza+florida+&btnG=Search+News

It is looking more and more like human to human transmission in Vietnam to start the family cluster. Too many cases in Thia Binh with no known source

http://news.google.com/news?q=h5n1%20cluster&hl=en&lr=&sa=N&tab=wn

as your screen name? You're new to DU, obviously. That's a very curious ID. Why is the 1918 flu epidemic so on your mind that that's how you choose to identify yourself?

I have followed the 1918 pandemic and see a re-run right around the corner. It is much sooner than most realize. Looks like human to human transmission in Thai Binh

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&q=Thai+Binh+bird+flu

so what's this about bio-terrorism in korea and how is it linked with the bird flu virus?

Quite a bit on WSN/33 has already been written, including Nature last week. Look for more this week

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&q=wsn%2F33

The sequences came a human lab virus. How it got into Korean swine remains an unanswered question.

More news on Korean swine and recombination

http://news.google.com/news?q=recombination+avian+flu&hl=en&lr=&tab=nn&ie=UTF-8&scoring=d

Science magazine covers human WSN/33 in Korean swine

http://news.google.com/news?q=wsn%2F33&hl=en&lr=&sa=N&tab=wn

Second death in Thai Binh (but no reported H5n1 in province since Feb 5)

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&q=thai+binh+bird+flu

Casual contact transmission of H5N1 in Hanoi is under investigation

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=nn&ie=UTF-8&q=bird+flu+hanoi+transmission

Today's WSJ cites CDC study showing flu deaths in US rose 150% in 2003.

http://news.google.com/news?q=h3n2+california&hl=en&lr=&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&scoring=d

Flu Vaccine plan a disaster (on who's watch)?

and that's usually the last stop before it mutates to allow human to human transmission.

I read last month that a company in France had developed a prototype vaccine, but it will likely be rendered ineffective by continued viral mutation.

I don't think they're going to stop this one, not even if they wipe out every chicken and duck on the planet.

Dr. Shigeru Omi, the World Health Organization's Western Pacific regional director............

for the news. Then sort by date and you'll be able to keep up on what the story is.

I should like to know

Did H1 come before H2?

the designtions H1, H2, H3 stand for types of hemagglutinin moleules.

What's important to know is that these first 3 are found in human strains, and therefore many populations have built up some resistence to influenza with those surface characteristics over time.

H5 is something humans hadn't been known to have been exposed to before 1997.

The body doesn't recognize the little bastards, and so the immune response is limited. That's one reason why H5N1 has such a high case fatality rate (about 72%). Some people hope that with the inevitable reassortment and mutation, this strain of avian influenza will start to "look" more human- thereby becoming more contagious, but less virulent.

72%is astounding. And some have placed it even higher. Have we ever seen one this deadly?

interesting

There are 15 H's. They are defined by antisera. When it changes enough so the earlier anti-sera doesn't work a new number is assigned. There are 9 N's. Each virus has 8 genes as a separate piece of RNA (like 8 chromosomes)

New sequences at Genbank today define H16

dead in the last couple of years. The odds are way out of whack.

It is coming.

They and many of those wanted to kill the animals to stop the disease are the problem. They don't look for cures, they look for ways to kill the carriers. When there is a disease in an animal, as many of those animals as possible are whiped out to prevent a single human being getting it. When a single human being gets it, we bend over heaven and earth to find the cure.

It was the majority of mankind's arrogant attitude that they can kill things to survive...and nature is striking back. Hopefully there is still time for people to do what was needed all along and search for a vaccination for this terrible disease. Otherwise, I think the notion killing animals to save ourselves is what has sold us out in the end.

in the various avian influenza outbreaks have been done for commercial reasons- to protect industry.

They aren't necessarily aimed at destroying the resevior of disease.

aught to be scaring the hell out of the powers that be. This could be something that makes the influenza epidemic in the early part of the last century seem like a cold.

I hope (although it is pretty hollow at this point) that something will be done.

be released to the general public after 99% of the world's population is dead.

...conditions and you have two of the major breeding grounds for infectious diseases of all sorts.

combination of unsanitary human living conditions too close to many wild and domesticated animals. As I understand it, many of our flu bugs start in waterfowl, pass to pigs and then to humans. Even the great Black Plague originated in China/central Asia.

Was an article in the Atlanta Journal about this today along with a piece on NPR this morning.

and as usual, the deceptive little rag edited out relevant portions relating to vaccine shortages and production. The paper is shameless in doing that whenever something might reflect poorly on Republicans.

Here's perhaps the biggest science story of the decade, and their chopping up a wire service piece so as not to offend their right wing publisher's sensibilities. Small wonder they're not well respected in the community.

Yesterday at a symposium I heard Pat Preston, an infectious disease consultant, say that the vaccination can be effective for healthy or low-risk people if it's given at a lower concentration than high-risk people receive, and that if it is given in that form there really is no shortage.

He also recommended going to the cdc.gov site to find out the real info on the various types of flu we're at risk for.

Tomorrow Nature covers the false negatives in Vietnam and the swine in Korea that may be acts of bioterrorism

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&q=wsn%2F33&btnG=Search+News

of things to be scared about.

A list that has grown REALLY LONG since the idiot grabbed power in 2000.

*sigh*

n/t

n/t Just keep up. Fear amd worry are for naught.

SCARED! Just Prepare and be not surprised.

Like we are being stalked by Nature
and she is preparing to thump us hard.

I mean, if there's isn't a working vaccine, what can you do? From what I understand, the flu vaccines that you normally can get (when there isn't a shortage) are only good for certain strains of a flu, anyway. It seems like this could get way out of control well before a massive supply of vaccine could be developed and distributed.

So, is it "head for the hills" time? Time to stock up on drinking water and generators? What?

* Eat as healthfully as I can.

* Take daily echinacea (purple coneflower) -- shown to aid and enhance immune system function (tho contraindicated for anyone who has an autoimmune disease) -- taking a day a week off so my body doesn't get too used to it.

* Make sure to get a proper supply of other appropriate vitamins and minerals, including things like CoQ10, Vit. C with biolflavanoids, etc.

* Get daily exercise to further enhance immunity. Get enough rest and avoid stress, including physical stress like too much cold or wind exposure, over-indulging, etc.

* Research homeopathic solutions for flu and viral infections. (I personally don't know as much about homeopathy as I do herbs and other alternative healing modalities.)

* Make sure my liver is well-supported and as detoxified as possible using herbs like Milk Thistle, Dandelion Root and maybe a few others.

* Have Olive Leaf, Grapefruit Seed Extract, Oregano Oil capsules (all shown to have antibiotic properties) and Colloidal Silver (ditto) on hand and use immediately and as aggressively as possible at any sign of infection.

* Stay away from as many heavily populated places as possible; keep my hands washed (but NOT with anti-bacterial soaps), keeping some moistened towelettes with me at all times; avoid being around people who are obviously ill.

* Diffuse certain essential oils in the house periodically to help kill germs.

unfortunately, I'm seriously immune compromised. when/if "it comes down" I probably won't have much of a chance.

Good thing I have a good attitude about death! Seriously, it's my belief that you gotta go sometime, so does it really matter how or when? Sure if you can avoid it, do so, but if you can't, well... I just hope it's not too painful or protracted.

This makes it sound like I'm very morbid, but it's actually sort of the opposite. It's mostly out of my hands, so I don't worry about it too much.

Then again, if there were some ways for a person like me to prepare for a pandemic, I wouldn't mind knowing about it!

No one has heard of it but I swear by it.

Watch out for more mysterious deaths of leading experts.

And yes, when you see it heading in your direction, limit outside contact, have clean drinking water and food in your home or have an alternative, head for the hills, cave, someplace not to far from where you are. Be prepared.

On edit:

I just read El's post. All of her suggestions are to be taken seriously as well.

Subject: What is the name of the movie, ummm "the band played on"?
Message:
It was about the CDC and the outbreak of AIDS. Basically it was allowed to spread when there were Dr's and Scientists that knew how to stop it and were ignored, given no money in support.

So we should trust in the CDC now? NOT ME!

With today's rapid movement of large numbers of people from one part of the world to another, we would probably see bird flu in the US within one week of a major outbreak in Asia. If I hear of outbreaks in the US, I will call in sick to work, pack up the car with the essentials, and take my girlfriend with me to my dad's farm in the middle of nowhere, MN. Plenty of food, our own well, and the closest neighbor is a quarter-mile away.

With a kill rate of what this thing could potentially have, I will take NO chances. Sorry to sound paranoid, as I am usually a very calm, logical person, but this just scares the hell out of me.

the flu might get you anyway. In the 1918 flu epidemic, even isolated groups of people got it--such as in Eskimo villages.

I live in rural upstate New York. I go to Mass with Guatemalan illegals, my husband is working in Europe this week and my son is working the next six months in China and India. The wide spot in the road in Ireland that my grandparents came from now boasts a mosque for the Muslim immigrants. It is a global community now, there's no place to hide.

Officials: Greene County could spot avian flu outbreak

Health department surveillance system would catch outbreak of deadly virus.

<snip>


Gipson said county health workers call hospital emergency rooms daily looking for unusual patterns of illness.

They watch death notices for unusual blips that might show the start of a disease outbreak.

Even school absentee rates are monitored, he said.

That surveillance network caught the sudden upsurge in influenza A cases that hit the Ozarks in recent weeks.

And it's in place if avian flu ever mutates enough to make the jump from chickens and ducks to humans in a big way.

On Monday, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned that just such a mutation is likely to occur.

Humans have no immunity to avian flu, which, in Asia, has killed 72 percent of the patients that contracted it from their flocks of ducks and chickens.

A handful of people contracted the disease from other humans — a major concern of the CDC. "Our assessment is that this is a very high threat," Dr. Julie Gerberding said at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

There is no human vaccine currently available to block avian flu.

It was about the CDC and the outbreak of AIDS. Basically it was allowed to spread when there were Dr's and Scientists that knew how to stop it and were ignored, given no money in support.

So we should trust in the CDC know. NOT ME!

This is scary stuff. I read a book on the 1918 epidemic last year and it was frightening. Not every threat is sensationalized - some are the real deal.

Nature has a news story on WSN/33. Looks like someone was telling reports a lot of nonsense

http://news.google.com/news?q=wsn%2F33&hl=en&lr=&sa=N&tab=wn

When the wolf finally arrived. Everybody had stopped listening.

Being misunderstood, walked away nonchalantly. No one thought to cry coyote, which was the real killer anyway ;)

I really wish they'd change that parable around. Maybe they could have it set up in england, and have the blair who cried bush.

Tell the fundies they should boycott these companies and not get vaccinated.

An ounce of prevention...

There is an article in this week's issue of the New Yorker about Avian Flu and how viruses cross species barriers- pretty scary stuff.

The article is not available on line, but a Q & A is avaiable here:


http://www.newyorker.com/online/content/?050228on_onlineonly01

Here are two good resources to follow what's going on with this emerging issue:

The World Health Organization's (WHO) Avian Influenza section of their website.

Here's a link to the Centers for Disease Control's (CDC) Avian Influenza section.

:scared:

Flu Epidemic racing across Russia. Some areas have had schools closed for a month

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&scoring=d&q=h3n2+school

Regions are near prior H5 infections.

sounds like there is a lot more to this story.
I don't ever recall schools being closed for two weeks
(and counting).

will they be like our "canary in the mines"?

I was wondering more about our flock of chickens than my family.I guess it's just human reaction to avoid thinking of the worst. My other concern is not about the avian flu per se but that someone will panic and kill the flock out of fear.

It's the virus that's been identified as next year's threat, but no one knows where the vaccine is coming from. We got lucky this year, but the California A is supposed to be a more virulant strain. Heaven help us if there is a natural plague or terrorist attack; these guys can't get it together for something that happens every year like clockwork.

California A is evolving quickly. By next fall the vaccine against it won't help much

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&q=H3N2

I read the report from the link about the two students in Illinois who died. Doesn't look good, with the way it can mutate so quickly.

You can either take Standardized Elderberry Extract or "Sambucol" Black Elderberry Extract ( one table spoon on empty stomach once a day for maintain dosage, or if you have flu, take it 3 to 4 times a day for 7 days). I take the one capsule per day for maintain through the winter month (Quantum brand name). If I feel like, I might be coming down with the flu, I increase it 4 times per day. This stuff is amazing for flu!

You can google Elderberry Extract for information.

http://my.webmd.com/content/article/78/95926.htm?z=1728_00000_1000_le_01

Hope this help. I been taking this stuff for 15 years since when I first heard of it and it really works! When I do comedown with flu and cold, I take the liquid stuff by SAMBUCOL Black Elderberry 4x per day and it usually gets rid of the flu and cold in few days. It's a natural wonder drug... I call it. All my friends take this stuff and they swear by it. I have not gotten flu shots in 15 years because of this stuff.