STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 2 March

(in interview form)

MARK: Over the past couple of years there have been several instances that traditional technical tools appeared to have lost their "touch." You have just concluded a multi-month research project into the matter, and I would like you to elaborate on some of your findings.

IKE: Nothing is 100% accurate. Fortunately in this business you only need to be correct 60%-70% of the time in order to be successful. Over the years, people who practiced technical analysis had tried to identify--within their sub-field of T.A.--those patterns/readings etc., which 60%-70% resulted in a particular outcome. However, over the past few years, there have been several instances that the expected outcome has taken place less than 60%-70% of the time, and it has happened with different indicators, across almost every sub-field of technical analysis. We did an exhaustive research examining many indicators/systems/methodologies trying to find a common denominator. We found several, but there are five that seem to have had the biggest impact.

-cut-

Ten years ago, the number of hedge funds operating in the U.S. was approximately 1/10 of what it is now. Moreover, in most cases there was a direct contact between the operator and the investor, and the lock-up period was normally one year. Now, we have 10 times more funds operating, and the usual lock-up period is just 90 days. If you have just 90 days to outperform the market, otherwise the consultant who has invested in your fund on behalf of the client will pull the funds out, then you really don't have much choice; you go after price.

more...

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Stocks Set to Open Lower As Investors Await Greenspan's Testimony on the U.S. Economic Outlook

-cut-

NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. stock futures are trading down Wednesday following Tuesday's gains on Wall Street, with investor attention focused on Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony this morning on the U.S. economic outlook.

Dow Jones futures were trading down 27.00 points recently, while Nasdaq futures were down 8.00 points and S&P futures were down 3.20 points.

-cut-

In U.S. corporate news, Costco Wholesale Corp.'s fiscal second-quarter earnings rose 35 percent as the company booked a $52.1 million tax benefit and same-store sales gained 7 percent. The warehouse-club retailer said Wednesday that net income in the three months ended Feb. 13 rose to $305.5 million, or 62 cents a share, from $226.8 million, or 48 cents, in the year-ago quarter. Excluding items, second-quarter earnings were $263.3 million, or 54 cents a share, a penny shy of Wall Street expectations.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050302/wall_street_6.html

We'll hear from Greenscam at 10am.

Oil Prices Hold Ground Above $51 a Barrel After OPEC Official Comments on Production

SINGAPORE (AP) -- Crude oil prices remained above $51 a barrel Wednesday ahead of inventory data from the United States and after an OPEC official said the group might decide against a cut in production at its next meeting.

-cut-

Crude oil prices dropped in New York Tuesday after the OPEC acting secretary general, Adnan Shihab-Eldin, said the group may decide at a March 16 meeting in Isfahan, Iran to maintain production levels.

Shihab-Eldin's comments came a day after Kuwait's oil minister and current OPEC president Sheik Ahmed Fahd Al Ahmed Al Sabah said the group, which pumps more than a third of the world's oil, would maintain or increase its oil supply at the meeting. Al Sabah also said that Algeria, Nigeria and Libya favor leaving quotas unchanged.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050302/oil_prices_8.html

------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Market Summary
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dow 10,784.41 -45.59 (-0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,059.33 -11.92 (-0.58%)
S&P 500 1,204.37 -6.04 (-0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 4.399% +0.03
NYSE Volume 47,906,000
Nasdaq Volume 99,889,000
------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Market Summary
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dow 10,783.31 -46.69 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,060.06 -11.19 (-0.54%)
S&P 500 1,205.50 -4.91 (-0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 4.385% +0.01
NYSE Volume 215,768,000
Nasdaq Volume 327,337,000
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Market Update

10:00AM: Equities remain on the defensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative... Semiconductor (-1.5%) has relinquished some of Tuesday's gains, amid margin concerns at Novellus Systems (NVLS 28.94 -1.24) and lower than expected microprocessor sales at Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 17.63 -0.33), adding pressure to the rest of technology... Consumer cyclicals have also been weak following disappointing Q1 guidance from Lear (LEA 45.75 -7.01) while a stronger dollar has weighed on the materials sector...

Energy (+1.1%), however, has shrugged off some of yesterday's weakness, despite flat oil prices, ahead of the Energy Dept.'s weekly oil report at 10:30 ET... Expectations call for crude supplies to increase by 1 mln barrels, gasoline supplies to climb 1.1 mln barrels and distillate stockpiles to fall 1.2 mln barrels...DJTA -0.2, DJUA -0.3, DOT -0.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 678/1859, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 764/1751

9:40AM: Stocks open lower, in line with futures indications, ahead of Greenspan's testimony to Congress... At the top of the hour (10:00 ET), Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will begin testifying on the U.S. economy before the House Budget Committee as investors will look for any changes to the Fed's "measured pace" of monetary tightening... With worse than expected PPI data having been released since Greenspan's last appearance, coupled with a significant run up in bond yields over the past few weeks, widespread apprehension for equities has been evident in the early going...

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 10,790.03 -39.97 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,063.28 -7.97 (-0.38%)
S&P 500 1,206.93 -3.48 (-0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 43.72 0.00 (0.00%)
NYSE Volume 396,756,000
Nasdaq Volume 549,605,000

Greenspan Urges Quick Action to Deal With Financial Problems in Social Security, Medicare

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan urged Congress Wednesday to move quickly to fix the financing problems in Social Security and Medicare, arguing that delay will only make the country's budgetary problems more severe.

Greenspan again endorsed the key part of President Bush's Social Security overhaul to set up private accounts, but he stressed that much more needed to be done to put the giant retirement program and Medicare, which he said faced even more severe financial strains, on a more sound footing.

Last month, the Fed chairman had urged a go-slow approach on the narrower issue of allowing younger people to put a portion of their Social Security payroll taxes into personal retirement accounts.

Bolstering the administration's drive to get a Social Security reform bill enacted this year, Greenspan warned that every year of delay would make fixing the problem harder, especially after the baby boomers begin retiring.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050302/greenspan_7.html

Greenscam has been gulping the coolaid again.

but look at the absolutely tepid volume numbers!

Dow 10,813.75 -16.25 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,071.86 +0.61 (+0.03%)
S&P 500 1,209.40 -1.01 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 43.79 +0.07 (+0.16%)

NYSE Volume 441,160,000
Nasdaq Volume 615,466,000

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Layoffs at U.S. corporations jumped 17 percent in February to 108,387, boosted by increased merger and acquisition activity, international outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas reported Wednesday.

Nearly 50,000 of the announced layoffs, or more than 40 percent, were directly due to mergers, the firm said. Most of the merger-related cuts were in telecommunications. During the month, SBC Communications announced plans to acquire AT&T, while MCI agreed to a deal with Verizon.

February was the fourth month in the last five in which announced job cuts exceeded 100,000. Layoffs were up 40 percent from February 2004's 77,250.

yes, here it is
http://tinyurl.com/6suf4

If it were 250,000 layoffs the Dow would jump 200 points.

This latest "Variety" reporting of February's numbers makes me think something is up. The average person who still listens to CNBC and Kudlow's constant drumbeat about how great Bush's "Supply Side" eonomic policy has been for America...might just be rethinking what they've been told.

Folks who read this site everyday, have known we're being sold crap, but it's been kind of hard to reconcile what we read with the "drumbeat" from the Bushies and "Greenspeak."

MSNBC declined 15% overall and 14% in primetime, while financial news channel CNBC declined 23% overall and 42% in primetime.

http://www.variety.com/VR1117918742.html

MSNBC is still yelping from their silencing of Donahue. It seems that having a lefty on the air was the best thing going for them.

Its boring to hear the same Republican propoganda ...

its a bitch you can't control the consumer for very long time!!!

I guess Greenscam's comments were just the thing to insert some irrational exuberance in the markets. It does mean that bonds are taking a hit though.

Dow 10,857.34 +27.34 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,081.52 +10.27 (+0.50%)
S&P 500 1,214.43 +4.02 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 43.87 +0.15 (+0.34%)
NYSE Volume 579,767,000
Nasdaq Volume 807,354,000

It makes them happy. Home sick today, won't post much. Did you see Bill Gates was knighted? All it takes is money.

Gates: Microsoft Founder Receives Honorary Knighthood In The U.K.

http://www.forbes.com/2005/03/02/0302autofacescan04.html

I'm sorry you're ill today. Thank you for checking in.

Ozy :hi:

an "arithmatical error." He said millions were promised what we can't deliver based on that error. Arithmatical Error! :crazy:

He's definitely lost his mind, or the person who wrote his "talking points" for today is drugged out...trying to put that over on the American People. I had to turn it off...couldn't listen to him anymore.

Reports this morning were that Frist was backing off holding a vote for SS Privatization this year. I guess the Bushies started sweating bullets and got the info to Greenspeak to come down hard in favor of SS so the markets would rally into the stratosphere showing the "sleeping Americans" that this would be great for their portfolios. A CNN whore actually said breathlessly: "The DOW is flirting with 11,000 as Chairman Greenspan speaks, today!" As she wiggled in her chair.

I turned CNN off too.

I understand that Frist has a bitter taste in his mouth since his political portfolio has continued to lose money in the past year. It's not the kind of information one needs as evidence to the kind of success one could expect under the Bush/Greenscam plan.

Dow 10,845.23 +15.23 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,077.60 +6.35 (+0.31%)
S&P 500 1,213.57 +3.16 (+0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 43.73 +0.01 (+0.02%)

NYSE Volume 801,192,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,095,032,000

... makes me wonder if it weren't the plan all along to not pay back the SS trust fund for loans made to the general fund.

At first, in 1983, the legislation had the appearance of hiding the true size of the deficits created (something the Reaganites desperately wanted, to make it look as if voodoo economics worked), but after Bush's 2001 launch into tax cuts + wars, I have to wonder.

It's looking more and more as if it's been the intention not to pay back the fund as it needs the resources to meet requirements.

These guys have intentionally ballooned up interest payments (have a look at what percentage interest payments, defense, black world projects, intelligence and off-budget war payments combined make up of the discretionary budget) to squeeze the rest of government. In that regimen, every payback to the SS trust fund is a deficit-funded item which becomes recycled debt, which just adds to total interest, thus compounding the problem.

Yup, it's intentional, and Greenspin is aiding and abetting.

...to the point of adopting that mangled vocabulary - such an addled mind.

but as a foreigner (Briton) watching this debate I do wonder what the hell Social Security reform has got to do with Greenspan. He is supposed to be a central banker whose remit covers topics such as interest rates and the money supply. This subject is the responsibility of central government.

how about spending our SURPLUS that WE built

with his reply above. I've not heard "Greenscam" ever speak that directly. He's usually so "nuanced" in his replies. And he wasn't questioned on it after he said it. I turned it off just after that. Maybe someone else questioned him further on that odd statement later on.

He's let a "cat out of the bag," maybe.

Greenspan Urges Quick Action to Deal With Financial Problems in Social Security, Medicare

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan urged Congress Wednesday to move quickly to fix the financing problems in Social Security and Medicare, arguing that delay will only make the country's budgetary problems more severe.

Greenspan again endorsed the key part of President Bush's Social Security overhaul to set up private accounts. But he said Congress needed to do other things to put Social Security and Medicare on a more sound financial footing given the impending retirement of 78 million baby boomers.

While saying that Congress should move quickly to consider possible benefit cuts for Social Security and Medicare before the baby boomers begin retiring, Greenspan, as he did a month ago, urged a go-slow approach to setting up Bush's proposed private accounts.

The administration estimates those accounts will require about $745 billion in new borrowing over the next decade. Greenspan said it is difficult to judge what impact that increased borrowing will have on financial markets and for that reason, the government should move cautiously to keep from triggering higher interest rates.

"I think it is very important that you move gradually and see what the response is," Greenspan said.

more drivel...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050302/greenspan_14.html

That last line-- essentially do something and see what happens... -- exemplifies how he has managed his chairmanship: on a whim and a prayer.

Dow 10,807.91 -22.09 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,070.33 -0.92 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,209.56 -0.85 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 43.79 +0.07 (+0.16%)

NYSE Volume 1,292,857,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,682,362,000

 Market Summary
Dow 10,811.97 -18.03 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,067.50 -3.75 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 1,210.08 -0.33 (-0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 43.79 +0.07 (+0.16%)

NYSE Volume 1,567,315,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,999,480,000