Oil Demand Is Rising Faster Than Expected, IEA Says (Bloomberg)

Oil Demand Is Rising Faster Than Expected, IEA Says

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Oil demand this year will rise faster than expected because of cold weather and growing economies in the U.S. and China, straining the ability of producers to keep pace, the International Energy Agency said.

The IEA, an adviser to 26 industrialized nations on energy policy, raised its forecasts for demand for a third straight month. Oil consumption will be 84.3 million barrels a day this year, 330,000 a day more than last expected. Use will rise 1.81 million barrels a day, or 2.2 percent, the Paris-based agency said in a monthly report today.

snip

Crude prices have jumped 22 percent this year in New York and challenged their October record of $55.67 a barrel, the highest in more than two decades of futures trading. The gain came as concern increases that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has little capacity left to compensate for disruptions to supply.

``The reality is that oil consumption has caught up with installed crude and refining capacity,'' the IEA said today. ``Oil is dominated by a U.S.-centric focus, which does not appear to explain the recent price rise,'' because of rising stockpiles there. ``Look at the global picture and the recent rally makes more sense.''

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a_9kDbdHC99E&refer=news_index

Houston....we have a problem ..."peak oil".

It's like everyone going to the bank to withdraw their savings at the same time. Someone has to do a better job of restoring confidence and tempering the demand.

But I can hardly believe we're at a stage of crisis because surely someone in power would start to ask us to conserve energy. :eyes:

DEMAND for greater fuel efficiency cars or hybrid use

Where is a demand for less driving if possible and lowering your thermostat?

Where is a demand for a renewable energy resorce plan ...NOW.

that there is not really an oil crisis because the US has become so much more efficient in using that resource. Hence, the price of oil should be heading back down once the oil producers, etc. undertstand that. However, he did not mention the bigger picture. That even with the energy efficiencies that have been adopted, the US is still using more oil than ever before. He also excluded the developing world precipitous rise in energy consumption as well.

He is either a clueless or disingenuous Republican hack. I think it is the latter. It makes me puke to see that CNBC has turned into FauxNews redux.

and proper planning.

They have to keep people spending....like a house of cards.

the U.S. uses relatively less energy as a percentage of our GDP than we did 25 years ago is because we have shipped our manufacturing base to other countries.

Service industries aren't that energy-intensive. Most of them around here also don't pay as well as the manufacturing jobs of 25 years ago.

I can hardly think of any right-wing pundit I dislike more. Well, except for Flush Phlegmball, or Savage, or Hannity, or O'Really, or Mannthrax, or Jonah Goldberg . . .

Never mind!

Every citizen needs a mini-tank just incase the terrorists destroy out government, it'll be everyone for him/herself. :eyes:

...185 days. So at that pace, two cubic miles of oil reserves are used up each year. Now, how many cubic miles of oil reserves are there in the world today?

(one barrel of 45 gallons is 9 cubic feet and a cubic mile is equal to 5280' x 5280' x 5280')

http://news.globalfreepress.com/movs/Al_Bartlett-PeakOil.mp4

see also...
Hubbert Peak of Oil Production
http://www.hubbertpeak.com

psst... pass the word

peace

End of Suburbia (24 min. edited versions for streaming. Less than half the full DVD, VHS version)

Apple Quick Time
http://911busters.com/video/IQ1_20_END_OF_SUBURBIA_VIDEO_24.2_.mov

Windows Media Player
http://911busters.com/video/IQ1_20_END_OF_SUBURBIA_VIDEO_24.2_.wmv

Edited to add: Full version available for rent at Netflix:
http://www.netflix.com/MovieDisplay?trkid=73&movieid=70022083

...military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan? Is more oil being siphoned off into the National Reserve to allow Georgie to invade Iran and Syria?

Oil Demand Rises More Than Expected, Straining Supply, IEA Says

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Oil demand this year will rise faster than expected because of cold weather and growing economies in the U.S. and China, straining the ability of producers to keep pace, the International Energy Agency said.

The IEA, an adviser to 26 industrialized nations on energy policy, raised its forecasts for demand and the amount of oil needed from OPEC for a third straight month. Oil consumption will be 84.3 million barrels a day this year, 330,000 a day more than last expected. Use will rise 1.81 million barrels a day, or 2.2 percent, the Paris-based agency said in a monthly report.

Crude prices have jumped 21 percent this year in New York and challenged their October record of $55.67 a barrel, the highest in more than two decades of futures trading. The gain came amid increasing concern that higher demand may strain the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

``The reality is that oil consumption has caught up with installed crude and refining capacity,'' the IEA said today. ``Oil is dominated by a U.S.-centric focus, which does not appear to explain the recent price rise,'' because of rising stockpiles there. ``Look at the global picture and the recent rally makes more sense.''

http://www.energybulletin.net/4677.html

http://news.globalfreepress.com/movs/Al_Bartlett-PeakOil.mp4

see also...
Hubbert Peak of Oil Production
http://www.hubbertpeak.com

peace

at around $300 a barrel. There is no crisis.

Because at $300/barrel we'd pay what, $40/gallon for gasoline?

You tinfoil lunatics are all the same :-)

Yes there's lots of oil in shale. (Lots in tar sands.)

The problem is that is takes energy to extract that oil. You're spending energy to get energy. At some point, net energy GAIN is zero.

Sweet crude is great because it costs very little energy to get energy out of it. Not so with shale or tar sands.

I love my Hummer-2.

Well a few hundred miles south, but I have known plenty of people who worked at the plants or building the plants. They are massive, on a huge scale. Tar saturated sand has to be dug up (sometimes lots of overburden removed first), then hauled many miles to a plant where the oil is extracted by heating and skimming. Then, the synthetic crude has to be refined, and the petroleum products moved to market. So, there are plenty of energy intensive steps

- building the plants (millions of tons of steel and cement).
- housing the workers and satellite communities.
- digging up the ore (e.g. fuel for huge pieces of machinery, for example dump trucks that could comfortably fit a house).
- extracting the oil from the sands.
- refining the oil.
- transporting it to market.

As the easy to access reserves get used up, the energy costs of the process will increase accordingly. At some point the amount of energy going into the process will exceed the amount coming out. The trick is, knowing when that point is. I wouldn't trust the oil companies to tell us, though.

On edit - I figured you were being sarcastic too, but lots of people don't know this stuff.

"... come with me, if you please, to a world of puure imagination!..."

they're still throwing flowers and candy to our troops in the middle east i hear, the Kool-Aid Man told me so.

(I realize you were being sarcastic, but to further the point...)

You can squeeze a barrel out for $10,000 per, it won't matter a wit if it costs more than the equivalent of a barrel of oil in energy to get it out. At that point oil ceases to be a source of energy.

The days of high EROEI seem to be gone. Back in the 50's EROEI yielded ratios of 40:1. Current production is down to about 8:1. New discoveries have been requiring 4:1 (see Richard Heinberg, The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies or link to this, A petroleum geologist explains US war policy, a fine thread at U75 that has been running since 2002).

So what happens when EROEI approaches 1:1 or worse? What happens to the Green Revolution, petroleum fueled agriculture? What happens to our oil-driven distribution systems? Will it be the bloom-in-the-Petri-dish phemomena? A static food supply allows bacteria to rapidly grow until, consuming the supply at an exponential rate, the food is exhausted and the bacteria turn upon eachother as they race to a cataclysmic die-off.

The global population at the dawn of the Industrial Interval was about 1.8 billion people. It's nearly 7 billion now. What happens to the huge delta in biomass when the cheap energy that made this bloom possible disappears?

Hmmm. The Bush Doctrine, quietly ushered in via the awful National Security Strategy of the United States on September 20, 2002 -- perhaps a circling of the wagons by (global) elites acutely aware of the coming strife?

The illusion of freedom in America will continue as long as it's profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way, and you will see the brick wall at the back of the theatre.
--Frank Zappa, 1977

Now, pulling on the tin foil, I believe the leaders of our plutocracy are well aware of the coming difficulties. Thus we had a dismantling of the Fairness Act and the Rule of Sevens followed by massive near-monopolization of the major media; the Cheney draft Defense Policy Guidance in 1992 (rejected by GHWB but embraced and included by reference in PNAC's Rebuilding America's Defenses); the Clinton Interruption and the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy ending in the charade of impeachment; Carnahan in November 2000; December 12, 2000; two trillion dollar tax cuts steeling the financial fortresses of the few against the troubles ahead; Unocol pipelines and threats of "carpets of gold or carpet bombing"; September 11 and the race into Afghanistan; Wellstone's convenient death in November 2002; the first Republican governer in Georgia in 135 years, despite trailing in the polls by more than 9 points on election eve; the Orwellian march into Iraq allowing establishment of four impregnable war garrisons right smack in the middle of the world's largest known pools of oil; the Patriot smack I and stealth passed components of Patriot II; black-box-voting, Ohio, and Florida in November 2004; the Orwellian attack on social security, yielding yet more future financial flows into the pockets of the fortunate few; the appointment of John Negroponte, that overlord of the American Holocaust during the Reagan administration, as chief of Homeland Security. What, pretell, is GWB preparing for? death-squads in the homeland when our quality of life collapses in the Petri dish of our nation?

"May you live in interesting times," goes the Confuscian curse. Unfortunately we do; all too unfortunately, the times are interesting indeed. As the dearly departed HST said somewhere, Big Dark Coming Soon.

and the immediate demise of the lawsuits against the energy companies. In fact, you have to add in the California energy crisis and Enron et al to this excellent list.

for only $70-$75/bbl -- But take a look at the I-79 and I-70 Corridors (I grew up there) and Clairton and Donora PA.

The Oil Wars were too little, too late.

Pity about that pipeline.

in the land of convenience and conspicuous consumption.

Raising inventories a few days will cause a surplus?

The short term dynamics of pricing are over, I think, unless one can choke off China and other developing states, ending their growth surge. Perhaps this is possible. A war with Iran might do it, this would be a history making event, for reality based people to study while neo-cons change the world as we know it.

Independent
By Saeed Shah
12 March 2005


Cold weather across the northern hemisphere and robust economic growth in the US and China has led to a "surge" in demand for oil, the International Energy Agency said yesterday.

The intergovernmental body dismissed the idea that speculators were behind the record highs continuing in the price of crude oil, pointing to tight supply and booming demand as the reason. It said a broad range of commodities was at record or near-record highs, indicating "global economic growth as the primary driver behind high oil prices".

The IEA warned that the situation may require co-ordinated action by governments. In its monthly Oil Market Report, the organisation said: "If supply continues to struggle to keep up, more policy attention may come to be directed at oil demand intensity in our economies and alternatives."

The IEA raised its global demand forecast for 2005 by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 84.3 million. Annual growth now averages 1.8 million bpd, up 290,000 bpd. Not only has there been cold weather this winter in Europe and North America but north-east Asia has also been cold, particularly Japan.

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=619221