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Prof has theory about real reason for crime's plunge in '90s (Roe v Wade))

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NNN0LHI

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:25 PM
Original message

Prof has theory about real reason for crime's plunge in '90s (Roe v Wade))

http://www.suntimes.com/output/news/cst-nws-req21.html

The most controversial chapter in the 256-page book explains Levitt's theory as to why crime in the United States dropped during the 1990s. The conventional wisdom is all wrong. It wasn't community policing, more prisons, the aging population, gun control, the strong economy, etc.

Rather it was Roe vs. Wade, the 1973 Supreme Court decision that legalized abortion. Pregnant women who were unmarried, poor or teenagers suddenly were able to abort unwanted children.

"Legalized abortion led to less unwantedness; unwantedness leads to high crime; abortion, therefore, led to less crime," he writes.

The opposite happened in Romania. After that country outlawed abortion, the crime rate shot up, Levitt writes.

"One need not oppose abortion on moral or religious grounds to feel shaken by the notion of a private sadness being converted into a public good."

more

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suziedemocrat

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:27 PM
Response to Original message

1. Interesting! Kick n/t

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The Magistrate

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:28 PM
Response to Original message

2. The Gentleman Is Certainly Correct, My Friend

Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 03:28 PM by The Magistrate

This has been out in the literature for some while, and hangs together perfectly. It stands so well to reason it is hard to see any honest argument to be raised against it.

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renaissanceguy

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #2

3. If abortions were legal back in the day,

Barbara Bush should've had one. The world would've been better off (literally).

http://www.cafepress.com/liberalissues.14744291

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daleo

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #2

4. Well there could be some basis to the hypothesis.

But it is a political minefield from all sorts of perspectives.

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Demit

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #4

11. Only if a politician tries to use it to impose abortion on women

I can't see any politician proposing that. Maybe somewhere off in a totalitarian future, but not now.

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rayofreason

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Mon Mar-21-05 05:02 PM
Response to Reply #11

37. imposing abortion

Ever heard of the one-child policy in China? Not only are there forced abortion, but lots of female infanticide. According to the 2000 census, there were about 117 males to 100 females. For second births, the national ratio was about 152 to 100. The "totalitarian future" is there now.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/edit/archives/2004/03/23/2003107449

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Demit

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Mon Mar-21-05 05:38 PM
Response to Reply #37

40. Why yes, I have. But we are talking about the U.S., are we not?

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AngryAmish

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #2

5. I have not seen the numbers, so bear with me

It was my impression that abortion was legal in some/many places pre-Roe v. Wade. Were there that many more abortions post-Roe?

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Dr.Phool

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #5

8. If I remember correctly

It was only legalized in New York, shortly before Roe v Wade.

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AngryAmish

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #8

13. Really?

Shows you what I don't know.

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joeybee12

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:38 PM
Response to Reply #8

30. You are correct--tennis great Billie Jean King went to New York to have

one prior to 1973.

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mopinko

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Mon Mar-21-05 05:49 PM
Response to Reply #8

42. no

don't know all the states, but around here, you went to wisconsin.

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Tims

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Mon Mar-21-05 05:33 PM
Response to Reply #5

38. California, Hawaii, New York

Maybe one or two others legalized before Roe vs Wade

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sandnsea

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Mon Mar-21-05 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #5

44. Many more

It went from 500,000 in 1973, the first year of Roe, to 1.6 million in 1990.

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PaganPreacher

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #2

12. Corollary argument: Gore and Kerry lost because of Roe v. Wade.

In each election, the numbers were close, but the Republican candidate won.

More abortions by Democratic women between 1973 and 1986= fewer Democratic voters in 2000 and 2004.

Does that place the pro-choice platform of the Democratic Party in a counter-productive position to the Party goal of winning elections?

What does that portend for future elections?

Hmmmmm... food for thought.

The Pagan Preacher
I don't turn the other cheek.

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sonicx

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:42 PM
Response to Reply #12

14. you were probably joking, but the population growth of red states...

Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 03:42 PM by sonicx

is indeed higher than blue states. Abortion is a factor, but so is access to contraceptives and attitudes about family (red states have more kids and get married more often)

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UCLA Dem

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:57 PM
Response to Reply #14

18. also people who are of a higher socio-economic status tend...

to have less children. I don't know those numbers, but it could also be a factor.

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PaganPreacher

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:06 PM
Response to Reply #14

22. Not joking, but throwing it out for discussion.

I don't think the answer is truly as simple as "more abortions=Democratic Pary failure," but I think that it may be one of the factors.

It's certainly worth discussing.

The Pagan Preacher
I don't turn the other cheek.

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Ellen Forradalom

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Mon Mar-21-05 08:17 PM
Response to Reply #14

50. There's been a huge migration from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt

Birth rates are not the only factor. Far from it.

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Damien

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:00 PM
Response to Reply #12

20. actually...true

some democratic friends of mine just had a kid -- they said it was doing their part to create another liberal in the world (a joke -- but with a kernel of truth).

Consider this:

1)Conservatives normally have larger families

2)Also, the more educated have less families.

3)And finally, the more educated you are the more likely you will be liberal.

In a few hundred years, there will be one intelligent liberal in america -- and she will probably move to canada.

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PaganPreacher

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:17 PM
Response to Reply #20

25. Fourth factor:

While I don't have any evidence to support this, I suppose that children will share most of the values of their parents.

Using that supposition, "more children of red-state Republicans in 1984, compounded by higher abortion rates and lower birth rates among Democratic families, would lead to more young Republican voters in 2004."

I think your projection may be the case, Damien. I hear Canada is nice, though (good hunting and fishing up there, and lots of clean water!)

The Pagan Preacher
I don't turn the other cheek.

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sonicx

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:20 PM
Response to Reply #25

27. i dunno about that. The only demographic than Kerry won was young people..

18-29. The rest went to Bush (even seniors, which kinda surprised me).

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PaganPreacher

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:38 PM
Response to Reply #27

31. I oversimplified. mea culpa.

It looked like I assumed steady numbers at higher age levels, with net (R) increases and (D) decreases in the 18-25 range. I didn't mean to say that.

It may be that greater increases in 18-29 voters were needed to overcome red shifts among older groups. It may also be that vote patterns trended to the right as voters aged past 35 and before 55.

Since I am not one of DU's statistical savants, I won't step off the dock into that deep water.

From a political science viewpoint, though, I think I see a connection between the factors. Time for my thinking hat!

The Pagan Preacher
I don't turn the other cheek.

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cmd

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:50 PM
Response to Reply #20

35. Love that last line n/t

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Damien

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Mon Mar-21-05 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #35

51. thanks

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SheWhoMustBeObeyed

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Mon Mar-21-05 05:47 PM
Response to Reply #12

41. How do you know they were Democrats? n/t

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TahitiNut

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:51 PM
Response to Reply #2

16. Yep. The causality is long known.

Indeed, fiscal planners have long known that the most reliable indicator of projected growth in the prison population is performance and behavioral problems in the third grade - it's a 10-year predictor..

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bemildred

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:03 PM
Response to Reply #2

21. Perhaps an explanation for the shortage of cannon fodder, too ... nt

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Dr.Phool

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:34 PM
Response to Original message

6. I read a long article on this

A couple of years ago in Scientific American. Made a lot of sense.

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qazplm

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:34 PM
Response to Original message

7. I dont know...

the crime rate is too varied and complicated a thing to be affected by any one thing.

You may argue that part of the reason why the population between 16-24 dropped was because of abortion I suppose, but I think that was along with increases during the Clinton years in the standard of living for the poor along with community policiing and yes tougher laws all combined to make the crime rate go down.

I think we have had too much of a variation in crime rates SINCE Roe to attribute a plunge to Roe.

I mean I suppose if crime started dropping right when the "Roe babies" would have been 16-17 then you have something but eventually you still have to explain the other variations after that, like the increase in crime since Bush has been in office.

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sonicx

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:36 PM
Response to Original message

9. I don't know if this is true. Ireland has extreme abortion restrictions...

but has a lower crime rate than the US.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/cri_tot_cri_cap

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AP

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:26 PM
Response to Reply #9

28. That's not the information you need. You need to know if the crime

rate in Ireland would drop in 20 years if they made abortion legal.

Just because they have a low rate relative to the US now doesn't mean that less unwantedness in Ireland wouldn't reduce a low crime rate even lower.

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Beetwasher

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:37 PM
Response to Original message

10. Yes, This Was PART Of It But Not All of it

The good economy was also a big part of it. Crime drops when people are well off, there have been lot's of studies to support this hypothesis as well. I don't think you can put all your eggs into one basket on this issue. The crime rate is now increasing and the abortion laws have not changed, but the economy has.

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UCLA Dem

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:54 PM
Response to Reply #10

17. True, one can hardly say that something as complex as crime...

can be explained by a single variable. Likewise, it would be also virtually impossible to hold all those other variables constant in order to isolate the "abortion" variable. While I think it is interesting and definitely has a positive correlation, one variable cannot adequate explain all the variation within the system.

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iamjoy

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Mon Mar-21-05 11:08 PM
Response to Reply #10

54. Well Off People = Less Abortions

Some women do abort because they feel they can't afford to raise a child.

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UCLA Dem

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Mon Mar-21-05 03:51 PM
Response to Original message

15. I guess wanted, happy don't commit crimes.

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MountainLaurel

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:09 PM
Response to Reply #15

23. yes, and

Wanted children are less likely to be neglected and abused, and less likely to develop depression later. All of which are linked to criminal behavior.

Additionally, I remember reading an article once about a study in Scandinavia showing that unwanted infants were more likely to have a low-birth weight, be fussy, etc. This bowled me over, since it seems that the mother's feelings about the fetus can have repercussions even in the womb.

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AP

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:28 PM
Response to Reply #15

29. I guess what it means that people with no support and no opportunity

are the first to turn to crime in tough times.

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seasat

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:00 PM
Response to Original message

19. I'd think that the economy is more of a factor.

A big difference between the Raygun economy and the Clinton economy was the growth of real income for the bottom 60% of the population. The greater growth during the Clinton years meant that poverty was lower and there were jobs available for the poor. There was a lower incentive to commit a crime for money.

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AP

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:41 PM
Response to Reply #19

33. When the economy is bad, who are the first people to turn to crime?

Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 04:42 PM by AP

People who grew up without love and support from stable parents and ended up desperate and poor as a result.

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Megahurtz

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:11 PM
Response to Original message

24. Hmmmmm....

.....it makes sense!

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sportndandy

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:19 PM
Response to Original message

26. Worth Recommending

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RedCloud

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:40 PM
Response to Original message

32. Bush's economy causes abortions!

And his fundies are frightened to pay for the costs of those parent-less kids they want to see "live">

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yo-yo-ma

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:44 PM
Response to Original message

34. association is not causation

Even if you can demonstrate a statistically significant association between the legality of abortion and crime rate, it doesn't neccessarily prove that the legality of abortion causes a change in crime rate.

Especially in light of other sociological variables - such as joblessness rate - which have been tied to crime rate (and can explain this historical change).

The argument from abortion to crime is full of many assumptions (few of which, I imagine, have been studied) - that parents who were ambivalent about the pregnancy to the point of considering abortion had it been legal translates somehow into childrearing behaviors, economic realities, educational contexts etc. which lead to criminal behavior -

Finally - there are many good reasons for abortion without having to claim it reduces crime. Which is an argument that all the right wing will jump on to show how cruel and callous liberals are.

This hypothesis, even if intriguing, is not constructive to the abortion debate today.

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mopinko

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Mon Mar-21-05 05:57 PM
Response to Reply #34

43. you are reading a short bite of the book

there was a detailed and exhaustive analysis that lead to this conclusion. it is not based on assumptions, but on data.

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damntexdem

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Mon Mar-21-05 04:59 PM
Response to Original message

36. It's not a new theory --

it's a hypothesis that has been around for several years. And it's irrelevant to the real issue: that of choice.

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Hamlette

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Mon Mar-21-05 05:34 PM
Response to Original message

39. I read an advance copy of the book, its a great read n/t

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Jimbo S

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Mon Mar-21-05 06:12 PM
Response to Original message

45. Also led to the labor shortage of the late 90's

Fewer potential people born after 1973 leads to a shrinking labor pool of people for entry-level jobs. Result was a rise in wages for these jobs to attract workers.

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bloom

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Mon Mar-21-05 06:25 PM
Response to Original message

46. I think it is in Italy

where the gov't is paying women to have children - thousands of dollars - because so few were.

If some people in this country want others to have children - maybe they should advocate that.

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customerserviceguy

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Mon Mar-21-05 06:50 PM
Response to Reply #46

48. We have that

It's called "child tax credits".

Me, I don't see the link between abortion and lower crime rates, here in Utah, we have very low abortion rates, and fairly low crime rates. I figure that the aging of the baby boom has more to do with it than most anything.

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Patiod

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Mon Mar-21-05 06:39 PM
Response to Original message

47. there was a study done in sweden (?) on adoptees vs not

Longetudinal study which looked at women who inquired about adoption, and then tracked
1) the children they gave up
2) the children they did NOT give up (after they changed their mind)
3) a control group (similar demographics) of children whose mothers neither inquired about adoption or put them up

Findings were: adoptees were similar to the control group except for a blip of problems with the adoptees around the time of adolescence.

Actual crime, though, was much higher in the "inquired about, but changed their minds" groups.

Sorry I don't have a link - this is something I remember seeing several years ago in a journal for social workers.

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GettysbergII

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Mon Mar-21-05 07:41 PM
Response to Original message

49. Excellent article!!

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Logansquare

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Mon Mar-21-05 10:17 PM
Response to Original message

52. Legalized abortion is also co-related with easier access to birth control

in general. Women who can go to Planned Parenthood or similar organizations and receive abortion counseling often receive information and counseling on birth control and other social services, such as drug counseling and prevention of domestic violence. Much good for society stems from allowing women to choose when to be mothers and when not to be. NGOs have already documented the enormous benefits brought to families in developing countries when women were able to control their own birthrates.

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applegrove

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Mon Mar-21-05 10:56 PM
Response to Original message

53. Also the opening Middle Class and Affirmative Action. They all helped.

but don't tell them that. They think it had to do with washing graphitti off walls.

Wait - we in Canada did not wash graphitti off walls - and our crime rate fell. We also don't have guns in Canada. Perhaps the fact that the baby boomer hump had passed and the young were no longer the majority may also have something to do with it - and was that affected by liberal pro-choice issues and sex-education?

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