STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 24 March

Beginning of Bear Market or Healthy Correction?

In Tonight’s Wrap Up, I’ll explore whether the latest stock market correction is one more head fake toward even higher prices, or perhaps something more ominous. The rally from the August ’04 lows moved like a bee-line straight through the presidential election and didn’t even correct until after the New Year. Following the rally into the New Year, the market corrected but the Nasdaq bounced from the “psychologically important” 2,000 level, while the Dow Industrials, S&P 500, Dow Transports, and S&P mid-caps bounced to new multi-year highs. Yet while the former bull trend must be respected, there are some technical factors, presented in this article, that may lead to the conclusion that this correction is not just one more head fake, but an ominous signal of a primary bear market trend.

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Fissures Not Repaired Readily – A Bearish Sign

The character of the market seems to be changing in that individual stocks are no longer able to recover from an apparent knockout punch. While I haven’t done a statistical study across the US market, I can tell you that this is a characteristic of several stocks that I have followed. For example, in ’03 and ‘04, knockout blows were absorbed by companies such as Eastman Kodak, Autozone, and Pep Boys on a routine basis. Yet after they gapped down in favorable general market conditions, each of these companies made miraculous recoveries. Similar behavior could be found throughout the stock market post October ’02 through ’04.

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Today’s Market

The latest market swoon was attributed to the rising price of oil, yet yesterday and today’s action saw oil take a tumble, with no corresponding rally. The major averages traded flat today, with some important sector leaders lagging such as mid-caps and transports. While the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq finished little changed on heavy trading, the Dow transports finished down ½ of a percent, and the S&P mid-caps and small-caps each finished down about 1% each. Trading on the NYSE was extremely heavy, at almost 2.3 billion shares. Extreme volume with no progress to the upside is a bearish sign. The Nasdaq closed below the support line referenced above, yet the break of support is a subjective judgment call and I’m still skeptical as to whether the descending triangle has been broken (yet).

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:
The IT folks are working on my computer today. This may mean prolonged absences from the thread, if I am able to get to another computer at all.

See you when I can. Have fun!

Ozy :hi:

Could it be that the reason the news & TV in general is not talking more about the economy? Is this simply because the last leg holding up the economy is consumer spending. Since the fed is starting to raise interest rates, this might slow down consumer spending and really send the economy on a downward spiral.

Can't really have one without the other. Anything that shakes consumer confidence is ignored or spun into "good news".

Julie

They would talk about it if they thought it was important and every now and then you do get a good story on the economy. But for the most part if the administration does not video and package the news for journalists they don't cover it. By the way just an interesting note for you.

I bought a new car and the dealer was saying how good my credit was. (now mind you I bought a economy car Nissa Sentra. Nothing fancy, I don't like high payments and the used car prices for a certified used Nissan Sentra were about the same for new.) He said he hadn't seen anyone in the last several months with as good a credit rating. He said in fact most people buying new cars had bad or poor ratings. I said well then I guess you sell a lot of economy cars and he said no. These people with poor and bad credit were for the most part leasing or buying large expensive cars. He said most people around here are in hook up to their ears. He said borrowing was the name of the game.

I live in a very red state, in the heart of red country. Here is what I see is going to happen, the borrowing bubble will explode. Interest rates will go sky high and the consumer will stop buying. Isn't that how the Great Depression began to collapse? People borrowed to buy stocks in the hopes of selling the stock later, paying off the debt and making some money. But what people do now is borrow large amounts over extended period of times in the hopes of making more money later to pay the debt. Borrowing seems to be the common thread. Anyway, just food for thought. I doubt the media will cover the problem before it becomes a crisis.

Mar 24 8:30 AM
Durable Orders Feb
report -
briefing.com 2.0%
market 0.8%
last report -1.3%
revised -

Mar 24 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 03/19
report -
briefing.com 310K
market 315K
last report 318K
revised -

Mar 24 10:00 AM
New Home Sales Feb
report -
briefing.com 1185K
market 1150K
last report 1106K
revised -

and here they come:

8:29am 03/24/05 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 31,000 TO 2.67 MLN

8:29am 03/24/05 U.S. 4-WK. AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 3,500 TO 321,750

8:29am 03/24/05 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 3,000 TO 324,000

8:30am 03/24/05 U.S. FEB. CIVILIAN AIRCRAFT ORDERS UP 32.1%

8:30am 03/24/05 U.S. FEB. DURABLE GOODS INVENTORIES UP 0.6%

8:30am 03/24/05 U.S. JAN. DURABLE ORDERS REVISED TO -1.1% FROM -1.3%

8:30am 03/24/05 U.S. FEB. DURABLE GOODS SHIPMENTS FALL 1.6%

8:30am 03/24/05 U.S. FEB. DURABLE ORDERS EX-TRANSPORTATION OFF 0.2%

Inventory of new homes rises to record 444,000 in Feb.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDF5F1A6C%2D5BA3%2D442F%2DA515%2DBF15FBFB66BE%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Sales of new homes jumped about 9.4 percent in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.226 million, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday.

The sales rate is the second highest rate ever, matching December's pace and just below October's record 1.304 million.

Economists were expecting a small increase to about 1.14 million, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

The supply of new homes on the market rose to a record 444,000, representing a 4.4-month supply at the February sales pace. In January, the inventory had spiked to a 4.6-month supply.

Home sales and new construction have remained very robust despite increases in mortgage rates. Sales of existing homes dipped slightly in February to a still-strong 6.79 million annual pace, a realtors group reported on Wednesday.

But mortgage rates have risen sharply since February to around 6 percent. Economists for housing and real estate groups say they believe rising incomes and continued appreciation in home values will keep demand strong even as interest rates rise.

...more...

9:59am 03/24/05 U.S. FEB. NEW HOME SALES SET RECORD IN SOUTH

9:59am 03/24/05 U.S. FEB. NEW HOME SALES BEATS EXPECTATIONS OF 1.14 MLN

9:59am 03/24/05 U.S. FEB. NEW HOME INVENTORY RECORD 444,000

9:59am 03/24/05 U.S. FEB. NEW HOME SALES AT 2ND HIGHEST EVER

9:59am 03/24/05 U.S. FEB. NEW HOME SALES UP 9.4% TO 1.226 MLN

I'll bet ARMs ain't the hot seller anymore. ;-)

Julie

The U.S. 30-year mortgage averaged more than 6 percent this week, the first time the benchmark has crossed above that level in eight months, Freddie Mac said Thursday. The mortgage agency (FRE) said the 30-year loan averaged 6.01 percent in the week ending Thursday, up from 5.95 percent a week earlier. The 30-year stood at 6.08 percent on July 24, 2004, the last time it was above 6 percent.

I think this is supposed to be a magic number. Look for house buying to start to decrease soon

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 84.05 Change +0.05 (+0.06%)

Link between Treasury yields and dollar questioned

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/9ce7c002-9bbf-11d9-815d-00000e2511c8.html

Two leading investment banks on Wednesday questioned whether rising US Treasury yields would increase the attractiveness of the dollar, even as the US currency rose on the back of rising US inflation concerns.

“We question how much support the dollar will get from rising US interest rates at this point,” said Marvin Barth, currency economist at Citigroup.

“Higher short-term interest rates could merely cut into expected returns on US assets, denting their attractiveness to investors”.

...a tiny bit more before they want a paid subscription...

A poorer OPEC no longer spreads its wealth

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0324/p16s01-cogn.html

In the bad old days of an oil embargo and gasoline lines, Americans at least got billions of petrodollars back from the oil-rich Middle East.

That money got recycled into the United States, mostly in safe bank deposits. The banks then invested it at great risk in Latin America and elsewhere.

So this time as gasoline prices soar again - an average $2.11 cents a gallon this week in the US - some Americans may be expecting another influx of Mideast cash. They shouldn't. The petrodollar is losing its international clout.

<snip>

So instead of investing their petrodollars abroad this time, most OPEC nations have ways to spend or use them at home.

<snip>

Of the petrodollars that do leave home, fewer find their way to the US. In a post-9/11 scene, citizens of the Middle East are uneasy about traveling to America to splurge. They expect to be fingerprinted and possibly face other indignities at the airports.

Oil money going abroad is now spent mostly in Europe and Asia. And that's in spite of the fact that the decline of the dollar - by 40 percent against the euro - makes US goods cheaper.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

Facing their worst financial outlook in years, executives at General Motors said yesterday that they wanted union workers to accept the same health benefit cuts already taken by white-collar workers.

"We need a competitive plan for all of our employees," said Gary Cowger, G.M.'s head of North American operations, in a speech at the New York International Auto Show. "An across-the-board competitive health care plan for salaried and hourly employees could save us billions of dollars a year."

snip..

Executives said yesterday that G.M. was taking a number of steps to right itself. They said that the company was reallocating engineering resources to rush the next generation of large sport utility vehicles, like the Chevrolet Suburban and the Cadillac Escalade, into production by the end of the year. G.M. is also planning to hasten introduction of its new large pickup truck models and midsize sport utility vehicles like the Chevrolet Trailblazer, and abandoning some planned small and midsize sporty cars.

"When you hit a rough spot, you have to decide where the real priorities are," said Robert A. Lutz, G.M.'s vice chairman, adding that the S.U.V.'s were "where the company makes, frankly, high margins."

Mr. Lutz dismissed concerns that volatile gas prices would mean that large S.U.V.'s may not be the savior they have been in the past.

"Everybody thinks high gas prices hurt sport utility sales. In fact they don't," he said, adding that buyers of big S.U.V.'s like the Suburban, GMC Denali and Cadillac Escalade were well-off enough to be insulated from rising gas prices.

"Rich people don't care," he said.

snip..

G.M. is also deeply burdened by health care costs. The company covers 1.1 million Americans, or about 0.4 percent of the population, and is the nation's largest private health care provider, with annual costs of over $5 billion.

Big Three autoworkers have health care benefits that are the envy of many Americans, with no deductibles or monthly premiums. Salaried workers at the companies, however, pay both deductibles and monthly premiums, with the amounts varying depending on the plan. Altogether, G.M.'s salaried workers pay about 27 percent of their health care bill, while hourly workers pay about 7 percent, according to company data


more..



http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/24/business/24auto.html?


The first thing I have to say what morons for the first comment about bigger cars and rich people. :wtf:

The second thing I have to point out 1.1 million americans health care are tied into this company. :scared: :cry:

About big cars and rich people, that is. Last summer, we went to Ocean City, MD. Plenty of Bushies down there riding in really big trucks sporting Bush/Cheney '04 stickers and pulling even bigger boats and such. These are the people Lutz is talking about. Gas could go to $4/gal., and they'd still be cruising around in their conspicuous-consumption vehicles driving sensible people crazy - and loving every minute of it.

Thing is, you have plenty of the not-quite-so-rich who were too young to remember the 1970's gas crises and thought they needed and could afford a gigantic truck thing to haul around their litter of young-uns, which usually numbered fewer than three. Gas was 90 cents or less a gallon back then, depending on what state you lived in. Clinton energy critics should remember that last part; it's nearly impossible to talk to people about conservation when they're practically giving away gasoline.

The company covers 1.1 million Americans, or about 0.4 percent of the population, and is the nation's largest private health care provider, with annual costs of over $5 billion.


I wonder what the pension numbers are like.

Bushies riding in really big trucks sporting Bush/Cheney '04 stickers and pulling even bigger boats are in debt up to their butts. When things start getting worse their debt is going to catch up with them.

Chief financial officers, the people whose knack for numbers lifted them into the executive suite, are becoming a statistic themselves.

More CFOs are resigning, retiring or getting fired. A buildup in the demands, pressures and risks has turned the position into what some describe as a thankless chore. And corporate cost cutting has shrunk finance staffs, leaving CFOs with less help to shoulder heavier workloads.

snip..

Suzanne MacCormack used to be one of those stressed-out executives. As a CFO for software maker Moldflow, her brain was stuffed full of financial ratios.

But the calculation that prompted MacCormack to quit Feb. 3 had nothing to do with revenue or earnings. It was what she calls the imbalanced "risk-reward and fun ratio" of the CFO job.

"So many of my peers have said the same thing — so I'm watching and waiting for them to leave the ranks as I have," says MacCormack, who's now working at a venture capital firm. It is a private company and doesn't have to comply with Sarbanes-Oxley rules. Plus, she's now working 55 to 65 hours a week, which is more manageable than the 60 to 70 she spent as CFO.

Gone are the days, MacCormack says, when CFOs could do what attracted them to the profession in the first place: pore over numbers and help division managers prudently grow their businesses.

Instead, new regulations and other pressures are turning the CFO into the corporate narc, more of a police officer than an accountant.

.more..


http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/2005-03-23-cfo-usat_x.htm

My sis-in-law is an A2 the CFO at her company. He works in the 50 hour range, gets all the trips and memberships, etc.. She is the one who works the 80 hour weeks. We try to get her to move on but the bennies are too good she says. It can't last forever.

in the short term potential profits... opening numbers indicate an upward surge in the market.

briefing.com

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Positive bias persists in pre-market trading, as expectations for a higher start for cash market remain intact... While both of today's economic releases were a bit weaker than expected, inflation concerns have been somewhat tempered, providing investors with a little breathing room to get the market back on track and possibly recoup some of this week's widespread losses

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Futures trade holds relatively steady following economic data, still indicating a higher open for the indices... Feb durable orders grew 0.3%, following a 1.3% decline in January, while ex-transportation fell 0.2%... Initial claims rose 3K to 324K, slightly more than economists expected... Treasurys, which were off slightly ahead of the data, have rebounded somewhat as the 10-year note (+2/32) now yields 4.57%

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a higher open for the cash market as investors weigh M&A activity and upbeat GE guidance against rising fuel prices ahead of economic data... Reports suggest that General Electric (GE), which has raised its Q1 EPS outlook by nearly 3%, is considering a potentially $3 bln offer for Dutch Bank NIB... However, a record surge in gasoline futures and higher oil prices following an explosion at a BP refinery near Houston could weigh on sentiment...

At 8:30 ET, Feb durable orders (consensus +0.8%) and initial claims (consensus 315K) will be released

ino.com

The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of its recent losses but remains below January's low crossing at 1496.50. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low is in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1496.95 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. If June extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 1433.06 is the next downside target. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 6.50 pt. at 1485.50 as of 5:49 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral signaling that a short-term low is in or is near. If June extends this month's decline, January's low crossing at 1170 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving crossing at 1191 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. The June S&P 500 Index was up 3.20 pts. at 1177.80 as of 5:53 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning.

Dow 10,485.05 +29.03 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq 1,996.40 +6.18 (+0.31%)
S&P 500 1,176.43 +3.90 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.585 -0.22 (-0.48%)

NYSE Volume 91,944,000
Nasdaq Volume 121,829,000

Dow 10,494.17 +38.15 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq 1,997.46 +7.24 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,177.28 +4.75 (+0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 4.583 -0.24 (-0.52%)

NYSE Volume 165,939,000
Nasdaq Volume 194,385,000

Motorola Inc. is joining the growing ranks of companies moving away from traditional retiree benefits.

Employees hired after Jan. 1 won't be eligible for retiree health benefits, nor can they participate in the firm's regular pension plan, Motorola disclosed in a recent report to federal securities regulators.

However, new workers will be eligible for a 401(k) retirement plan that includes company contributions. Workers employed prior to Jan. 1 are not affected by the changes, the company said.

Motorola made the changes after reviewing the benefit plans of its competitors, said spokeswoman Jennifer Weyrauch. The changes were made for "overall cost savings," she said.

Workers hired prior to Jan. 1 are eligible for a traditional pension and a company match on a 401(k) account. New employees will get a "more attractive" 401(k) match, Weyrauch said.

snip..

Defined-benefit plans expose employers to more risk than defined contribution plans. That's because employers must invest pension money. When stocks go south, and interest rates fall, employers watch pension assets shrink, and liabilities grow.

That's what happened beginning in late 2001, accelerating the migration from traditional pension plans toward 401(k)-style plans, said Olivia Mitchell, a pension expert at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business.

By doing so, companies are shifting more retirement-planning risk to their employees, Mitchell said. On the other hand, some employees prefer defined-contribution plans because they are more portable and can allow for greater asset diversification, proponents say. :wtf:



http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0503240267mar24,1,3540933.story?coll=chi-business-hed&ctrack=2&cset=true

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Medicare may raise seniors' health insurance premiums by 12 percent next year because of higher payments to doctors, a government report showed.

The increase would push premiums for doctor visits deducted from Social Security checks up 49 percent over three years to $87.70 a month, the health-insurance program's trustees said in an annual report yesterday. Medicare, which covers more than 41 million elderly and disabled people, annually adjusts patient premiums and deductibles for hospital care.

``This is actually worse than I thought,'' said Joe Antos, a health-care policy analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington policy research group, in an interview yesterday.

The program's out-of-pocket costs have been rising faster than pension benefits under the government's Social Security program. While Medicare premiums rose 13.5 percent last year and 17.4 percent in 2005, Social Security checks increased by 2.7 percent in 2004 and 2 percent this year. The retirement program's trustees projected a 2.2 percent raise for next year.

snip..

Forecast Accuracy

Final premiums and deductibles for 2006 won't be set by the government for at least five months. Last year, the trustees' premium prediction was low by 10 cents, and their estimated deductible was high by $4.

Patients' out-of-pocket spending on hospitalization would rise 4.8 percent to $956 a year, according to the trustees' estimates. Deductibles for those who stay overnight in hospitals rose 4.1 percent this year and 4.3 percent last year.

``It will be interesting if this actually occurs,'' Kirsten Sloan, director of Medicare issues for the 36-million member AARP, said in an interview yesterday. ``We are always concerned about out-of-pocket spending for Medicare beneficiaries.''

Medicare will expand coverage of prescription medicines next year. The premium for the optional coverage will be $37.37 a month on top of the doctor-visit premiums, the trustees estimated.

``The average increase that seniors will perceive will be 60 percent, and that's a phenomenal number,'' said the American Enterprise Institute's Antos. ``What this almost certainly means is that in the fall, when this is revealed for the second time, there will be a political uproar.''


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aFDyUoqmfIv0&refer=us

Dow 10,501.47 +45.45 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,003.11 +12.89 (+0.65%)
S&P 500 1,178.02 +5.49 (+0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 4.580 -0.27 (-0.59%)

NYSE Volume 386,628,000
Nasdaq Volume 399,074,000

10:00AM: Equities still on the offensive early on as the bulk of sector leadership remains positive... Interest-rate sensitive issues like Homebuilding (+1.2%), Utility (+1.0%) and REITs (+1.4%) have surged while Energy (+1.1%) has been strong as oil prices edge higher... A rebound in Steel (+1.8%) has helped the Materials sector shrug off a modestly strong dollar while technology has been strong across the board, with Internet (+3.5%) getting a boost from Yahoo's (YHOO 31.93 +1.06) planned $3 bln buyback...

Airline (-0.6%), however, has paced a limited list of laggards after reports suggest rising fuel costs have renewed bankruptcy protection concerns at Delta Air Lines (DAL 4.12 -0.08); but Transportation has traded higher... Retail has also been weak amid shareholder approval for Kmart's acquisition of Sears (S 50.32 -6.48)...DJTA +0.8, SOX +1.0, NYSE Adv/Dec 1789/829, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1548/807

Magic numbers all around :eyes:

Stocks and bonds. When most people think of investments, that's where they start. Lately, however, some investment professionals are suggesting that people take a look at commodities and commodity funds.

The reason is obvious to anyone who has filled up a gas tank: Prices have been surging - and not just for oil.

Increased demand combined with reduced supplies for commodities such as copper, nickel, iron, and natural gas have helped fuel big gains in commodity prices over the past four years. One index of 17 commodities reached a 24-year high last week and is closing in on the peak set in 1980.

Fortunately, there are ways for the individual investor to profit. Just as the price of commodities has soared, so have commodity funds and more broadly invested natural-resources funds. For the 12 months ended March 11, natural-resources funds posted an average return of 40.7 percent, beating all other domestic-fund categories for the period, according to Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. Meanwhile, the PIMCO Commodity Real Return Strategy Fund, for example, gained nearly 95 percent from its inception in June 2002, through Jan. 31 of this year.

Commodity and natural-resources funds' gains can be explained by simple economics: higher demand and lower supply. While many people were chasing returns by investing in the Internet, telecommunications, and technology in the 1990s, commodity producers steadily cut budgets and reduced capital spending over an eight-year period from 1997 to 2004, according to Morgan Stanley Capital International. As a result, when demand for commodities started to pick up in 2000 and 2001, inadequate supply led to higher prices and higher returns for commodity and natural-resources funds.

"We have a bull market in commodities because supply and demand has gotten out of whack," says Jim Rogers, investor and author of "Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market." "There's been only one lead mine opened in the world in the last 25 years. There have been no great oil discoveries in over 35 years. Fields deplete. Mines deplete. After 25 years of no investment in production capacity, supplies are running low, demand is continuing to grow."

more..

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0314/p14s02-wmgn.htm

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=54

This is the second of a three-part interview with Paul van Eeden (www.paulvaneeden.com) conducted on March 8, 2005 during the PDAC Conference. Paul, formerly Managing Editor for Doug Casey’s International Speculator and now the publisher of his own weekly stock alert service for high net worth investors, is one of the most original thinkers and analysts working in the resource business today. In the final installment, he discusses finding a good uranium investment and more... look for it.

Given the prospect, as you’ve mentioned, of a global economic slowdown resulting from economic problems in the U.S., is gold going to be the best buy in the coming years? Obviously such a situation isn’t good for, say, base metals.

PVE: That’s why I am bearish on base metals. A lot of people are bullish on base metals because they look at current inventories and current supplies. But you know what? Prices peak when inventories are low and things look very bullish. But then something changes. What I think is going to change is demand. And when demand changes, inventories start rising and prices start falling. So, I actually think that the commodities bull market is behind us. I think we’ve been through a cyclical bull market in commodities, which is over, and now we’re in a secular bear market in the dollar, which implies that gold is still going to rise in dollar terms. But listen, that doesn’t mean the gold price is going up in any other currency. Take a look at the gold price in Canadian dollars – that hasn’t gone up in the last 12 months. Look at the gold price in yen, in euros, in South African rand. The rise in the gold price from, say, $400 to $800 is a U.S. dollar phenomenon. It has nothing to do with the gold market.

How do you see factors like the rising rand affecting gold production?

PVE: It hurts the South African gold producers. And it will continue to hurt them. Now, at some point I believe they’ll get some margin expansion. I believe the rand eventually will soften up, but I can’t predict when that’s going to be. But because such a large portion of South Africa’s exports are metals and other commodities, the rand is being buoyed by the dollar weakness in commodity prices. So, the rand is gaining on the dollar’s weakness.


more...

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0314/p14s01-wmgn.htm

Baby boomers have triggered social change at each stage in their lives - from expanding school rolls to inventing the yuppie. Now, they're reaching a milestone that has some experts worried.

The first boomers turn 59-1/2 this year. That's old enough to pull money out of Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) without tax penalty. And while no one expects a huge drawdown immediately, some financial analysts are concerned about what boomer retirement will do to the stock market.

Call it the cash-in crisis of the early 21st century. If the nation's 80 million boomers fund their golden years by pulling their trillions of dollars out of stocks and bonds, markets could tumble, some experts say. Others counter that the threat is overblown because markets are far too complex to judge using generational shifts alone.

This debate is heating up as boomer retirements loom. In just three more years, the first boomers will be eligible for early Social Security payments. Three years after that, they'll reach the classic retirement age of 65.

"There's a lot of evidence that people do take Social Security benefits at age 62 when they're first eligible" and leave the workforce, says John Gist, associate director of the Public Policy Institute at AARP, a seniors' lobby. There's also a strong tendency for people to take lump-sum distributions from IRAs and pension plans, he says, "and there's a danger that they'll spend a lot of it and won't have enough left for their retirement needs." :eyes:

:wtf: Do they think everyone is an idiot? Are we to believe that gubbermint knows what's best for us and our wealth?

more...

Are we to believe that gubbermint knows what is best?"
uhh....well, duh! Of course they think we are idiots and that is why they are just rolling over us like we aren't even here. We on the other hand are startled to know that we don't count and that millions of people equal a "focus group", so the criminals in power have the upper hand in the moment. Hopefully, we will find our footing and be able to effectively fight back. Our saving grace is that truth is on our side.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty032305.html

- Total Fed Credit expanded by $7.8 billion last week, and after it gets through being multiplied by the fractional reserve banking system, another few jillions of dollars of potential money was created. Now all you gotta do is walk up and borrow some of it to make it into money!

Enrico Orlandini of the Lasco Report also has been thinking about this stuff, too, and has a new essay entitled "Panacea." He writes "Mr. Greenspan has printed more dollars than all the other Federal Reserve Chairmen put together. It also doesn't quite capture the fact that the monetary growth seems to be gathering speed. For the week ending March 7, 2005, the M-3 increased another $31.5 billion and that's more than $160 billion since the last week in January. If this pace continues, we are on the road to a staggering trillion dollars plus growth in the money supply for 2005. Impressive to say the least!"

But as impressive as that it, life is not all cookies and chocolate milk. He also notes that history shows that "The implementation of paper money almost always begins with fiscal responsibility and good intentions, and it almost always ends in war and the collapse of social order." A relevant homily is that the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

"In conclusion," he says, "watch the money supply and look for larger and larger increases. And remember, you can print it but someone still has to want it. Every day there are less and less people willing to hold dollars. I'm seeing a trend in Latin America that was unthinkable just a couple of years ago. Stores are refusing to take dollars and companies are now writing long term contracts in local currencies. That's never happened before. How far have the Americans fallen? Not nearly as far as they're going to!"

As mad as that makes me, and as much as that scares me, and as much as that makes me write long, rambling hate-filled letters to the Federal Reserve about how they are suicidal idiots who are killing us all by destroying our money, I was not prepared for the how much Total Public Debt ballooned here lately. If you are a spineless coward like I am, then skip the rest of the MoGu and go have a chili dog, which would probably hit the spot right about now. But for the rest of you brave souls who laugh-- hahaha! --at danger, the numbers show that the Treasury and the spendthrift Bush White House and the moronic Congress have borrowed, in sixteen lousy days, $72 billion! Dollars! $72 billion dollars in sixteen days!

more...

perhaps not as entertaining. :evilgrin:

Seeing the numbers in a chart is quite shocking!

Dow 10,476.42 +20.40 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,998.72 +8.50 (+0.43%)
S&P 500 1,174.90 +2.37 (+0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.585 -0.22 (-0.48%)

NYSE Volume 577,413,000
Nasdaq Volume 584,648,000

11:00AM: Major indices hold steady at higher levels as oil hits new session lows... Crude oil futures ($53.65/bbl -$0.16) have ticked below $54/bbl within the last 30 minutes and continue to slide following a less than expected decline in natural gas inventories... But with gasoline futures still hovering near record levels, following an explosion at one of BP's largest refineries that heightened fears about available supplies heading into the peak summer driving season, stocks have failed to move aggressively higher...NYSE Adv/Dec 2191/819, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1823/872

10:30AM: Little changed since the last update as the major averages hold their own following strong housing data... Feb new home sales surged 9.4% to a 1.226 mln annual rate - the second highest level ever - well above economists' forecasts of 1.150 mln and much stronger than last month's decline to 1.106 mln... While the report rarely prompts a market reaction, and typically finds yesterday's better than expected existing home sales report more favorable, the data have provided a level of support for equities as the housing market continues to show resilience in the face of rising mortgage rates...NYSE Adv/Dec 2126/765, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1835/772

magic numbers receding :eyes:

Dow 10,503.60 +47.58 (+0.46%)
Nasdaq 2,005.01 +14.79 (+0.74%)
S&P 500 1,178.22 +5.69 (+0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.591 -0.16 (-0.35%)

NYSE Volume 1,061,485,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,037,803,000

1:00PM: Onward and upward remains a driving mantra today as widespread buying lifts virtually every sector... Interest-rate sensitive areas like Homebuilding (+1.6%), Utility (+1.4%) and REITs (+1.0%) continue to lead the charge, as Treasurys close early for the day basically unchanged... In Technology, Hardware (+1.4%), Semiconductor (+1.1%), Software (+0.9%) and Networking (+0.8%) have also surged... In Materials, Steel (+1.4%), Paper & Packaging (+1.1%) and Gold (+0.9%) have paced the gains... NYSE Adv/Dec 2272/914, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1939/980

What a glorious day in Bush's America!

Dow 10,502.06 +46.04 (+0.44%)
Nasdaq 2,003.37 +13.15 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,177.88 +5.35 (+0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.591% -0.02

See? Everything's great! ;-)

Julie

Dow 10,479.88 +23.86 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,000.36 +10.14 (+0.51%)
S&P 500 1,175.67 +3.14 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.591 -0.16 (-0.35%)

NYSE Volume 1,395,982,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,357,914,000

3:00 Indices hold onto the bulk of today's gains with spirited leadership from a number of blue chip industry groups... Bargain hunting in General Motors (GM 28.76, -0.78) has helped the automaker recoup a portion of the 17% it lost last week after slashing Q1 guidance and pace the way to the upside on the Dow... Of the other 26 components catching a bid, General Electric (GE 35.99 +0.49) has had the largest impact on overall market sentiment, however, after raising Q1 EPS guidance to $0.37-0.38... The bellwether, which today reclaimed the ranking as the world's largest company (by market cap), amid a sell of in ExxonMobil (XOM 59.57 -0.52), has attributed upside guidance to the offering of 80.5 mln Genworth shares and solid growth in its end markets... Other notable gainers have been Pfizer (PFE 26.46 +0.42), Citigroup (C 44.93 +0.48) and Home Depot (HD 38.15 +0.45) while American International Group (AIG 55.96 -0.74) has paced the way lower after it was removed from Banc of America's Focus List... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2242/1042. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1848/1149.

2:30PM: Major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges as investors find few catalysts to push the indices in either direction... While earnings guidance (i.e. GE and NOC) has provided a floor of support for equities, today's only notable earnings report has been trumped by an upcoming restatement...

ConAgra (CAG 26.18 -0.77), despite beating analysts' Q3 (Feb) expectations and saying Q4 (May) EPS will "modestly exceed third-quarter EPS" of $0.34 (consensus $0.37), has also announced that it will restate results for 2004 and the first half of FY05 due to income tax errors that could cost up to $200 mln... While strong economic growth has been good for corporate earnings, as Q1 EPS growth for S&P 500 companies stands at a respectable 7.5%, it has raised concerns of increasing inflation and higher interest rates...NYSE Adv/Dec 2224/1049, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1905/1091

markets are doing a great Alfred E. Newman imitation today:

What? Me? Worry?

Dow 10458.17 +2.15 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 1997.27 +7.05 (+0.35%)
S&P 500 1173.22 +0.69 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.591% -0.16

NYSE Volume 1,548,218,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,513,138,000



3:30PM: Indices slide to early morning levels amid modest profit taking, but equities still appear poised to close on an upbeat note... Lower than usual volume heading into the end of a holiday shortened trading week has also contributed to some late-day volatility... With regards to next week, investors will not get a chance to sift through any economic data until Mar Consumer Confidence (consensus 103.3) hits the wires at 10:00 ET on Tuesday while Walgreen Co. (WAG 46.39 -0.08) will be the only notable earnings report on Monday...NYSE Adv/Dec 2125/1150, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1780/1223

3:00PM: Indices hold onto the bulk of today's gains with spirited leadership from a number of blue chip industry groups... Bargain hunting in General Motors (GM 28.76, -0.78) has helped the automaker recoup a portion of the 17% it lost last week after slashing Q1 guidance and pace the way to the upside on the Dow... Of the other 26 components catching a bid, General Electric (GE 35.99 +0.49) has had the largest impact on overall market sentiment, however, after raising Q1 EPS guidance to $0.37-0.38...


Looks Like today might be a wash

3:08pm 03/24/05 APRIL NATURAL GAS CLOSES AT $7.062, DOWN 1.1%

3:09pm 03/24/05 APRIL NATURAL GAS DOWN 3% FOR THE WEEK

3:08pm 03/24/05 HEATING OIL FUTURES CLOSE DOWN 1.5% FOR THE WEEK

3:06pm 03/24/05 APRIL GASOLINE CLOSES UP 1.5% AT $1.5992 A GALLON

3:07pm 03/24/05 APRIL HEATING OIL CLOSES AT $1.5484, UP 1%

3:06pm 03/24/05 APRIL GASOLINE UP 1.5% FOR THE WEEK

3:02pm 03/24/05 MAY CRUDE CLOSES AT $54.84, UP 1.9%

This is just a filthy company with a lot of problems right now. I would not be surprised to drop into the high 30s per share.