STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 15 April

Stock Market Suggests that Homebuilders on Extremely Thin Ice

The position of the homebuilding stocks is reminiscent of the jolly red bear in the kids’ game, “Don’t Break the Ice”. The homebuilder stocks sit complacent, atop a foundation of supporting sectors (or “ice cubes”) that are being knocked out from under on a daily basis. As each “cube” cracks, the position of these stocks becomes more and more tenuous. When the jolly homebuilder bear finally loses his support, his fall is likely to be fast and far. Tonight, I will examine several of the falling sectors as well as some that are being displaced. How long can the jolly homebuilder bear hang on? Some key charts say not much longer.

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Time to Call an Audible

While I had intended to illustrate more sectors and charts tonight, unfortunately, my high speed internet connection has been on the fritz and I cannot bring up the excellent charting service, www.stockcharts.com. Instead, with several sectors of the stock market appearing to be ripe for short sales, it may be appropriate to review an important concept in technical analysis – the head and shoulders (HAS) reversal pattern. This is a pattern that has appeared throughout the recent bull market, but has rarely run to completion all the way to the final trend reversal from UP to DOWN. Since October 2002, the typical behavior has been HAS formation followed by what appeared to be a neckline break. But in practically all cases, this apparent neckline break turned out to be a whipsaw into a sharp and tradable bullish rally. In essence, these pattern failures were telling us something about the general conditions of the stock market – that the environment was still bullish or at least neutral, but not bearish. However, in recent weeks, the appearance of neckline breaks of support (and no bullish whipsaw) in certain sectors such as auto parts and mortgage companies may be signaling a bearish change in general conditions of the stock market. The 6-week-old annotated chart of Redwood Trust (RWT) below, provides a good example of this. Although a head and shoulders pattern formed and appeared to break to the downside in late February, anyone going short at the neckline breakout got punished due to still bullish general market conditions. Yet as of today, the RWT neckline has been broken and RWT is now in an established downtrend (not shown).

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Today’s Market

It was an ugly day and an ugly couple of weeks in the stock market regardless of where you were invested from the long side. The Dow Industrials were down 1.2%, the S&P 500 down 1%, the Nasdaq down 1.4%, the transportation index down 3%(!), the S&P Mid Caps down 1.84%, the Russell 2000 down 1.76%, and the NYSE composite down 1%. Gold was down $5.80 ($423.50/oz), while silver was down $0.16 (%7.06/oz), and the XAU and HUI were down 3.3% and 4.2%, respectively. Oil caught a slight bid finishing up 0.65 at $52.78, right about at its 50-day moving average. The rally in bonds continued as it broke what appeared to be resistance as shown in the chart below.



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Summarizing the action in the financial markets since about 1 month ago, I come up with the following:

* Bonds Up
* Dollar Up
* Japanese Stocks Down
* US Stocks Down
* Industrial Stocks Down
* Financial Stocks Down
* Transportation Stocks Down (!)
* Commodities Down (Oil Down)
* Gold Down

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

This technical signal indicated that the bear market was going to return with a vengeance and that it would be with us for a long time. Today it seems the levee has begun to break. Lets hope the coming flood does not sweep us all away.

the dam is breaking.

Such a big sustained downtrend has to be achieved by more than individual buyers and sellers. I'm thinking institutional selling..

.. why ..

I think I know.

Sue

April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Shares fell in Europe and Asia, led by Ericsson AB and Samsung Electronics Co., and U.S. stock-index futures declined on concern economic and profit growth is faltering. International Business Machines Corp. dropped.

Shares of basic resource companies including BHP Billiton and China's Jiangxi Copper Co. slipped. Invensys Plc and Orient Overseas International Ltd. paced a drop by industrial stocks. U.S. futures pared some of their declines after General Electric Co. reported first-quarter profit that surpassed estimates.

``We were coming to the peak of the bull market in equities, and maybe we're topping out earlier than expected,'' said Calvin Vaudin, a fund manager at Ashburton Ltd. in Jersey, Channel Islands, which oversees $1.4 billion. The firm cut holdings in the U.S. and Europe and expects to make further reductions, Vaudin said.

Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc.'s World Index, a global equity benchmark, declined 0.5 percent, falling for the fourth successive day. The measure has dropped 5.1 percent since reaching a more than four-year high on March 8. A Morgan Stanley benchmark for emerging markets also slid.

The MSCI World is dropping as evidence builds economic growth is stalling. Retail sales in the U.S., the world's biggest economy, rose less than expected last month, the Commerce Department said this week. The International Monetary Fund the same day cut expansion forecasts for Europe and Japan.

(more)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aDXyBtrjrbAo&refer=home

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 84.92 Change -0.08 (-0.09%)

Dollar Continues to Dominate Price Action

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=734&Itemid=39

EUR/USD - Euro bulls were in full retreat as dollar longs continued their unrelenting assault in a bid to take out a intermediate support at 1.2730, a 2005 low and a gateway to the 1.2481, key 61.8 Fib of the 1.1760-1.3667 euro rally. A break below the Fib level might see the pair retest the bids at 1.2000, 2004 summer range low, with a further breakdown seeing the pair revisiting 1.1760, a start of the May-Dec euro advance.

As euro longs await the dollar next assault, they will rely on 1.2766, a minor support established by an Apr 14 daily spike low. In case of another retreat, euro longs had established the last line of defense at 1.2675, a Nov 3 spike low. As the dollar bulls continue to rampage through euro held territory, their defense line shifter once more to keep up with their advance. If euro longs manages to stage a counter offensive, they will encounter a minor resistance at 1.2890, a key 78.6 Fib of the Feb-Mar euro rally, which is further reinforced by the 5-day SMA. In the event euro longs manage a further advance, an intermediate resistance at 1.2937, established by the 20-day SMA, will stand in the way of the advance. A major resistance is seen at 1.3015, a 61.8 Fib of the 1.2730-1.3479, euro rally. Oscillators are mixed; with Stochastic oversold on daily chart at 27.11 and is at 20.52 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI remains neutral on both the daily at 34.25 and is approaching oversold level on the 4-hour charts at 31.07. MACD is about to make a bearish crossover below the zero line on the daily chart and crossed below the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart.

<snip>

USD/JPY - Yen defenses crumbled as the latest dollar assault pushed deeper into the yen held territory above the 108.00 figure. As dollar longs continue their advance they will encounter a minor resistance at 108.48, established by Apr 11-12 consolidation range high. A move further will see the dollar test yen's defenses at 108.87, an intermediate resistance created by the Apr5-8 consolidation high, which currently defends the major resistance at 109.69, a 61.8 Fib of the 112.92-101.76 yen rally. A collapse of the major resistance will most likely see the pair test the offers at 111.46, an Oct 6-7 range high. As the dollar bulls continue to plow through yen's defenses, they have moved up their defenses with a minor support at 107.86, a 10-day SMA, creating the first line of defenses. An intermediate support at 107.29, a 20-day SMA, currently defends the major support at 106.73, an Apr 1 daily spike low, which defends the dollar dominated territory below the 106.50. Indicators are mixed, with Stochastic remaining overbought on daily chart at 77.60 and continues to tread above the overbought line at 79.19 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is curving upward on the daily at 63.78 and is neutral at 57.87 on the 4-hour chart. MACD made a bearish crossover above the zero line on the daily and is crossing the zero line on the dealer (4HR) charts.

...more...

U.S. wants progress on China currency

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D89FM7AO0.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down

APR. 15 2:48 A.M. ET The Bush administration, trying to restrain America's soaring trade deficit with China, has rounded up some powerful allies to help convince the Chinese that they must overhaul their currency regime and do it quickly.

The problem is there is no indication the Chinese feel the same sense of urgency.

The administration is going ahead with plans to make China's currency practices a top agenda topic when Treasury Secretary John Snow and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan serve as hosts for a weekend meeting of their counterparts from the world's seven richest industrial nations.

<snip>

At the G-7 meetings in Washington in October and London in February, China's top economic officials attended as invited guests to take part in the currency discussions.

However, this time around, Chinese officials decided to take a pass, perhaps believing that they had heard enough lobbying on the currency issue for the moment. They continue to maintain that China cannot drop its link to the U.S. dollar because too much currency volatility could disrupt the nation's fragile banking system.

The G-7 discussions, which will begin with a dinner Friday night and wrap up Saturday morning, are a prelude to the spring meetings of the 184-nation International Monetary Fund and its sister lending institution, the World Bank, which occur Saturday and Sunday.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=aoHBaUXOur9g&refer=germany

April 15 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped from a two-month high against the euro on speculation a government report today will show foreign investors' demand for U.S. assets is waning.

The Treasury Department will probably say foreigners slowed their purchases of U.S. stocks, bonds and other financial assets in February, a Bloomberg survey of economists shows. Concern foreign demand for U.S. assets would drop as the trade gap widened to a record helped send the dollar down 34 percent in the three years through 2004.

``Last month's figure gave people a false sense of security over flows, but in my view capital flows are now deteriorating,'' said Adam Myers, a currency strategist at Societe Generale SA in London. ``The flows data will be negative for the dollar.''

snip>

Today's report will show foreigners bought a net $65 billion of U.S. financial assets in February, down from $91.5 billion in January, according to the median of 14 forecasts. The Commerce Department said on April 12 the trade gap widened to a record $61 billion in February. A wider deficit means more dollars need to be converted to other currencies to pay for imports.

snip>

``A lot of the dollar's move has been technical,'' Waddington said. Breaching the 200-day average ``has given people a trigger to buy dollars.''....

more...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38457.3750963079-834186129&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Foreign capital flows were down slightly in February as overseas investors bought fewer equities, the Treasury Department said Friday. Foreigners bought, on a net basis, $84.5 billion in American stocks and bonds in February, down from a revised $92.5 billion in January. Analysts at Lehman Brothers had expected inflows to fall to $65 billion given the fact that February is a short month. The January figure is slightly higher than the initial estimate of $91.5 billion.

9:00am 04/15/05 U.S. FEB CAPITAL FLOWS $84.5 BLN VS REV $92.5 BLN JAN

Last trade 84.65 Change -0.35 (-0.41%)

Settle 85.00 Settle Time 23:36

Open 85.14 Previous Close 85.00

High 85.27 Low 84.58

Last tick: 2005-04-15 09:39:16 ET
30-min delayed quote.

8:30am 04/15/05 U.S. APRIL EMPIRE STATE JOB INDEX 8.6 VS 11.3 MARCH

8:30am 04/15/05 U.S. APRIL EMPIRE STATE NEW ORDERS - 0.2 VS 8.6 MARCH

8:30am 04/15/05 U.S. MARCH EXPORT AGRICULTURAL GOODS PRICES UP 3.7%

8:30am 04/15/05 U.S. MARCH IMPORTED CAPITAL GOODS PRICES DOWN 0.1%

8:30am 04/15/05 U.S. MARCH EXPORT PRICES EX-AGRICULTURE UP 0.4%

8:30am 04/15/05 U.S. MARCH EXPORT PRICES UP 0.7%

8:30am 04/15/05 U.S. APRIL EMPIRE STATE INDEX WELL BELOW CONSENSUS 17.3

8:30am 04/15/05 U.S. MARCH IMPORT PRICES EX-OIL UP 0.3%

8:30am 04/15/05 U.S. MARCH IMPORTED OIL PRICES UP 10.6%

8:30am 04/15/05 U.S. IMPORT PRICE INDEX UP 7.1% Y-O-Y

8:30am 04/15/05 U.S. MARCH IMPORT PRICES INCREASE BIGGEST IN 2 YEARS

8:30am 04/15/05 U.S. MARCH IMPORT PRICE INDEX UP 1.8% VS. 1.3% EXPECTED

8:30am 04/15/05 U.S. APRIL EMPIRE STATE INDEX LOWEST IN TWO YEARS

8:30am 04/15/05 U.S. APRIL EMPIRE STATE INDEX 3.1 VS REV 20.2 IN MARCH

scheduled to jaw-bone?

That will fix everything. Well, that and impeaching all the activist judges..


Hey! Look over there! A gay marriage!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={3E0C7202-D0E7-4BC4-A431-DAB58C49BF97}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York area slowed to a crawl in April, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Friday.

The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index fell to 3.1 in April from a revised 20.2 in March. This is the lowest reading since April 2003.

Economists were expecting the index to sink only to about 17.3 in April from the initial estimate for March of 19.6, according to a survey of economists prepared by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar

Readings over zero indicate expansion.

The Empire State index is of interest to traders primarily because it's seen as an early forecast of the national Institute for Supply management factory survey due out in two weeks. In March, the ISM manufacturing inched lower to 55.2% from 55.3% in the previous month.

The new orders index fell to -0.2 in April from 8.6 in March. This is the first negative reading since April 2003.

...more...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38457.3858040972-834186735&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. industrial production rose 0.3% in March, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday. The increase was in line with economists forecasts. Production in January rose a revised 0.2% down slightly from the previous estimate of a 0.3% rise. Capacity utilization rose to 79.4% from 79.3% in the previous month. Economists were expecting capacity utilization to increase to 79.5%.

9:15am 04/15/05 U.S. Q1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP 3.6% VS 4.5% IN Q4

9:15am 04/15/05 U.S. MARCH CAPACITY UTILIZATION 79.4% VS 79.3% IN FEB.

9:15am 04/15/05 U.S. FEB. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT UP REV 0.2% VS UP 0.3% PREV

9:15am 04/15/05 U.S. MARCH INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP 0.3% AS EXPECTED

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38457.5625831944-834196685&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve Board's data about industrial production and capacity utilization for March 2005 was mistakenly posted 15 minutes early on the Fed's web site Friday morning, the Fed said. The report is scheduled to be released at 9:15 but it came out at 9 a.m. as a result of "human error," the Fed said. A Fed spokesman said staff will analyze records to determine how many people viewed the data early.

It's interesting that the only report that was not "disappointing" was released early :eyes:

9:48am 04/15/05 U.S. APRIL UMICH 88.7 VS. 91.3 EXECTED: REPORTS

U.S. April consumer sentiment fades to 87.7

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38457.4127114468-834188153&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer sentiment faded in April on higher gasoline prices, a weak labor market and sagging stock prices. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 87.7 in mid-April from 92.6 in March, according to media reports on the proprietary research. Economists were expecting a decline to about 91.3. The current conditions index slipped to 103.9 from 108, while the expectations index fell to 79 from 82.8.

(edited to add link)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBA046AD6%2D0158%2D430F%2DB6F0%2DF9D8826C94B4%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

The expectations index fell to 79.0 from 82.8. It's the lowest reading for expectations since March 2003, when the invasion of Iraq weighed on consumers.

Retail sales weakened in March as gasoline prices soared, according to the latest data from the Commerce Department. Job growth was tepid during the month as well.

Economists say the consumer attitude surveys don't predict consumer spending very well.

In other reports, the economic data showed a stagflationary trend, with higher prices and weaker output.

The New York Federal Reserve Bank said its April Empire state index of manufacturing sentiment dropped to 3.1, a two-year low. See full story.

...more...

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/2005-04-14-estate-tax_x.htm

excerpt:

Here's how it would work. Starting in 2010 estates would no longer be taxed. But people who inherit wealth would have to pay capital gains taxes, currently set at 15%, on the difference between what was originally paid for an estate's assets and what they are worth at the time. That means people would have to figure out what their benefactors paid for something years, or decades, before.

What's more, certain estates worth between $1.3 million and $3.5 million would generate more in taxes after the repeal takes effect. That's because by 2009 the amount exempted from the estate tax is set to rise to $3.5 million. But the amount that can be shielded from the gains tax is set at $1.3 million per heir.

A logical solution would be to keep the estate tax where it is in 2009. A healthy exemption of $3.5 million would ensure that it wouldn't affect most farms and small businesses. But very large estates would still pay.

...more...

So all those farmers and small-business owners rallied behind the likes of the Heritage Foundation to have this "death tax" repealed. Yet where will most of them fall? I'd be willing to bet between $1.3 and $3.5 million.

So now they've not only cost themselves, but more than likely the rest of us that may inherit much smaller accounts. Not to mention the windfall of money flowing to accountants and lawyers to come up the original cost basis.

Meanwhile the "ubber-rich" will still have all their off-shore tax havens, their tax exempt foundations, and all the other tax shelters their lawyers can come up with to still not pay what should be their share.

Wake up America, you've been had again.

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/3135349

snip>

President Bush touts his tax cuts and vows to make them permanent, but that will lower our nation's revenue by about $1.8 trillion over the next decade.

Guess where the government will make up the difference?

For many Americans, the tax cuts are a political shell game. Congress doesn't want them to lapse because that will feel like a tax increase to most of us. So, lawmakers opt for stealth.

Their weapon of choice is the alternative minimum tax. Enacted in 1969, the AMT was an expression of legislative outrage after 155 wealthy taxpayers avoided paying income tax three years earlier. The AMT was designed to prevent the rich from dodging taxes through the use of shelters.

Congress never indexed the law to inflation. Fast-forward to the present, where what was wealth in 1969 is now a middle-class standard of living. The Treasury Department estimates as many as 16 million people may now face the AMT, paying some $6,000 more a year than they ought to.

Those numbers are only going to rise. By 2010, as many as 30 million people may fall under the provisions of the AMT, according to the Tax Policy Center.

more...

owners, farmers, middle class individuals, etc.
Anything more is a windfall for the very rich.

(aren't these DeLay's friends?)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38457.3124952083-834183623&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Westar Energy Inc. (WR) agreed to a $32.5 million settlement of shareholder suits related to matters that occurred under former management. Of the total, the company said it would pay $1.25 million and insurance carriers would pay $31.25 million. The electric utility said the settlement did not include an admission of liability or the pending suit related to the company's 401(k) savings plan. The stock closed Thursday down 30 cents at $22.33.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BAB90C7EB%2DB694%2D476B%2DBCA5%2D7A00D3B08567%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Sun Microsystems' shares tumbled early Friday as the computer server maker's operating results for the third quarter fell short of Wall Street's consensus view.

Year-over-year, including the favorable impact of a settlement with Microsoft and other items, the company was able to narrow its loss for the March period to $9 million, or break even on a per-share basis, on revenue of $2.625 billion.

In last year's equivalent quarter, Sun lost $706 million or 23 cents a share on revenue of $2.65 billion.

Excluding items, however, Sun lost $61 million, or 2 cents a share, missing the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call, who expected breakeven results on $2.74 billion in revenue.

...more...

Lots of "missed" earnings going on :eyes:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD5CFD2F9%2D1250%2D4607%2DA6CE%2D4EE64ABC8260%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Mattel Inc. shares fell sharply before the opening bell Friday after the company said first-quarter profit dropped 28% on slumping sales of Barbie and Hot Wheels toys and flat revenue from its Fisher-Price business.

Mattel (MAT: news, chart, profile) , based in El Segundo, Calif., saw its stock retreat 4.6%, or 96 cents, to $19.73 in recent pre-market trading. Shares finished Thursday's regular session down 46 cents, or 2.2%, at $20.23.

For the period ended March 31, the toy maker recorded net income of $6.5 million, or 2 cents a share, versus earnings of $9 million, or 2 cents a share in the first quarter of last year. Earnings per share remained flat despite the profit decline due to fewer shares outstanding in the most recent period.

Analysts polled by Thomson First Call were looking for earnings, on average, of 3 cents a share.

...more...

Gee, their CEO just got paid, too :eyes:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/archivedStory.asp?archive=true&dist=ArchiveSplash&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B6C27B093%2D53A5%2D4DEE%2D898A%2DB1FC9EBD1245%7D&returnURL=%2Fnews%2Fstory%2Easp%3Fguid%3D%7B6C27B093%2D53A5%2D4DEE%2D898A%2DB1FC9EBD1245%7D%26siteid%3Dmktw%26dist%3D%26archive%3Dtrue%26param%3Darchive%26garden%3D%26minisite%3D

Mattel CEO 2004 total pay $3.6M less options

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Mattel Inc. (MAT) said Wednesday that Chairman and Chief Executive Robert A. Eckert received total 2004 compensation of $3.6 million excluding stock options, compared with about $12.85 million in 2003.

The 2004 figure includes a salary of $1.25 million, a bonus of $984,344 and "all other compensation" of about $1.37 million. The 2003 figure includes a salary of $1.25 million, a bonus of $633,998 and "all other compensation" of $10.96 million. ...

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=42272

snip>

It would be impossible to over state the significance of what is at stake. The home is the only major asset most Americans posses, and the largest portfolio element for millions more. The home is fortress, symbol of American prosperity and the cornerstone of middle class society. For millions home ownership is a badge of pride, proof of middle class-dom and lender of first and last resort. The loose money policy and over extension of credit that has allowed us to ride out the explosion of past bubbles now imperils. If a worst case scenario unfolds a significant portion of the American middle class will fall.

According to the RBC Financial Group’s Outlook for North American Household Finances Report of March 2005, residential mortgages issuances grew 11.3%, 13.2% and 11.6% year-over-year from 2002-2004. Needless to say, this was a much brisker pace than US GDP and real disposable personal income growth. Over the same years home equity lending grew 7.6%. 13.0% and a whopping 27.6%, year-over-year. BEA chained 2000 dollar GDP growth rates for these years were 1.9%, 3.0% and 4.4% respectively. BEA data on percentage changes in disposable personal income were 3.1%, 2.3% and 3.5% year-over-year. Buyers appear unperturbed by such mundane fundamentals as economic growth and the ability to repay loans. OFHEO housing price indexes suggest that in the five years ending January 01, 2005 the average US hou se price increased by 50%. Meanwhile, the period 1990-2002 witnessed steady price growth and a 25% increase in the supply of single family homes. Housing prices have risen unusually rapidly, out done only by the growth in the debt associated with their purchase and extraction of equity from them.

The parallel between this situation and the dramatically declining US net international investment position, NIIP should be evident. The endless sale of housing equity represents the desperate attempt to trade purchasing power now for a pledge of future income. This nicely approximates the continuing sale of future tax revenues, earnings and profits to foreign nationals by the US economy. For consumers, this takes the form of mortgage borrowing, refinancing and home equity credit line withdrawals. For the US economy this is done by selling Treasuries, GSE bonds and corporate bonds to whomever will buy them, mainly foreign central banks and investors. It is no accident, and entirely correlated, that the domestic housing and global imbalance bubbles have been inflating together, particularly since 2000.

snip>

2004 marked the first year in some time when American families’ real income failed to keep pace with inflation. The average family saw its real income decline alongside a dramatic increase in their debt load. Over the year, housing debt increased $885 billion, or more than 13%. The Fed estimates that approximately 16% of American’s falling real disposable income went to debt service in 2004. Nearly $2 of every $3 in this burden was mortgage related. This occurred despite an average mortgage rate of 5.84% which is only 61% of the 35 year average rate of 9.5%. By my calculations, households paid just under 10% of their disposal income in mortgage payments despite anomalously low mortgage rates. The popularity of adjustable rate mortgages and no money down home loans has dramatically increased. As if that was not enough, interest rates and energy costs have begun to rise. Last, but certainly not least, there appears to be a de clining future ability of the GSE to accumulate or fully offer implied support to mortgage backed securities (MBS). This is of huge and rising importance as these agencies play a central role in securitizing hundreds of billions in mortgages. Over the past 15 years the portion of mortgages securitized has risen dramatically from 40%-60%.

snip>

An eerie foreboding should have spread when foreclosure.com released their monthly update last week. Their numbers called attention to a 50% increase in home mortgage foreclosures, February to March, with increases in 47 of our 50 states. This should serve as a warning on two fronts. First, that the debt driven housing run must be nearing its end. Second, there will be real fallout as the excesses are revealed by slowing home price appreciation and higher interest rates. Market fragility is compounded by the popularity of adjustable rate mortgages (ARM). The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) recently reported that ARMs account for more than one-third of new mortgages. How long will folks hold deflating housing with interest rates rising?

more...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38457.3711893171-834185959&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Online financial services firm Charles Schwab Corp (SCH) said Friday its first quarter net income fell 10% as reduced commission charges cut into revenue. Schwab earned $145 million, or 11 cents a share in the quarter compared to $161 million, or 12 cents per share a year ago. Revenue fell 4% in the quarter to $1.06 billion from $1.11 billion a year ago. According to analysts polled by Thomson First Call, the average estimate for the company's earnings was 12 cents a share. Schwab shares fell 20 cents on Thursday and closed at $10.22.

http://www.opensecrets.org/indivs/search.asp?NumOfThou=0&txtName=schwab&txtState=%28all+states%29&txtZip=&txtEmploy=&txtCand=&txt2004=Y&txt2002=Y&Order=N

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119


5/8/2002

$100,000

NRSC/Non-Federal

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119


10/21/2002

$100,000

NRSC/Non-Federal

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119


3/29/2004

$25,000

National Republican Senatorial Cmte

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94104

CHARLES SCHWAB CORPORATION/CHAIRMAN

4/27/2004

$5,000

Charles Schwab & Co

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB & CO./CHAIRMAN

7/1/2003

$5,000

Americans for a Republican Majority

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB CORPORATION/CHAIRMAN

12/20/2003

$5,000

Charles Schwab & Co

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB & CO./CHAIRMAN

12/31/2004

$5,000

Back America's Conservatives PAC

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB & CO INC./CHAIRMAN &

11/4/2002

$5,000

Sandhills PAC

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB & CO.; INC./CHAIRMAN

11/7/2002

$5,000

Charles Schwab & Co

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB & CO./CHAIRMAN

6/16/2004

$4,000

Americans for a Republican Majority

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB/CEO

9/10/2003

$2,500

Keep Our Majority PAC

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94104

CHARLES SCHWAB & CO/CHAIRMAN

3/7/2003

$2,000

Dreier, David

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119


9/4/2004

$2,000

DeLay, Tom

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHAIRMAN

11/1/2004

$2,000

Burr, Richard

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB

5/19/2004

$2,000

Coors, Peter

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB

11/1/2004

$2,000

DeMint, James W

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB CORPORATION/CHAIRMAN

6/30/2003

$2,000

Leadership PAC 2004

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB AND COMPANY

9/30/2004

$1,500

Bennett, Robert F

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB/CEO

10/28/2004

$1,500

Freedom Project

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

SELF EMPLOYED/INVESTMENTS

9/9/2004

$1,500

Baker, Richard

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119


5/15/2001

$1,250

National Republican Senatorial Cmte

SCHWAB, CHARLES
ATHERTON,CA 94027

CHARLES SCHWAB & CO INC

10/10/2003

$1,000

Casey, Toni C

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 04119

CHARLES SCHWAB CORP

5/22/2003

$1,000

Shelby, Richard C

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHAIRMAN

8/20/2004

$1,000

Burr, Richard

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHAIRMAN

8/20/2004

$1,000

Thune, John

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHAIRMAN

9/17/2004

$1,000

Nethercutt, George R Jr

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHAIRMAN

9/30/2004

$1,000

Vitter, David

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB

3/3/2003

$1,000

Specter, Arlen

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB & COMPANY INC

12/17/2003

$1,000

Santorum, Rick

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB CO/BANKING

12/1/2003

$1,000

Ney, Bob

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

SELF - EMPLOYED/STOCKBOCKER

12/16/2003

$1,000

McCrery, Jim

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

SELF/CEO

8/19/2004

$1,000

Towns, Edolphus

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB

3/28/2002

$1,000

Baucus, Max

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB

3/28/2002

$1,000

Baucus, Max

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB

12/4/2002

$1,000

Dodd, Chris

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB

12/4/2002

$1,000

Dodd, Chris

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB & CO. INC./CHAIRMAN

10/31/2002

$1,000

Kolbe, Jim

Schwab, Charles
San Francisco,CA 94119

Charles Schwab

9/30/2004

$312

Wilson, Heather

Schwab, Charles
San Francisco,CA 94119

Self

9/29/2004

$312

Sessions, Pete

Schwab, Charles
San Francisco,CA 94119

Self Employed

8/20/2004

$312

Northup, Anne M

Schwab, Charles
San Francisco,CA 94119

Self Employed

9/30/2004

$312

Beauprez, Bob

Schwab, Charles
San Francisco,CA 94119

Self Employed

9/30/2004

$312

Neugebauer, Randy

Schwab, Charles
San Francisco,CA 94119

Self Employed/Investor

9/29/2004

$312

Simmons, Rob

Schwab, Charles
San Francisco,CA 94119

Self-Employed

8/20/2004

$312

Boustany, Charles W Jr

Schwab, Charles
San Francisco,CA 94119

Self-Employed

9/20/2004

$312

Porter, Jon

Schwab, Charles
San Francisco,CA 94119

Self-Employed

9/30/2004

$312

Reichert, Dave

SCHWAB, CHARLES
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

SELF-EMPLOYED

9/30/2004

$312

Walcher, Gregory Edward

SCHWAB, CHARLES
ROCHESTER HILLS,MI 48306

TXT FASTENING SYSTEMS GROUP/VICE PR

12/31/2002

$300

Textron Inc

SCHWAB, CHARLES MR
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

SELF/CEO

5/1/2004

$1,500

Cmte for the Preservation of Capitalism

SCHWAB, CHARLES MR
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119


5/15/2001

$1,250

National Republican Congressional Cmte

SCHWAB, CHARLES MR
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94110

CHARLES SCHWAB/FINANCIAL CONSULTANT

11/17/2003

$1,000

Making Business Excel PAC

SCHWAB, CHARLES MR
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

SELF-EMPLOYED/FINANCE

1/19/2004

$1,000

Hensarling, Jeb

Schwab, Charles Mr
San Francisco,CA 94119

Self-Employed

8/20/2004

$312

Burns, Max

Schwab, Charles Mr
San Francisco,CA 94119

Self-Employed

8/20/2004

$312

Davis, Geoff

Schwab, Charles Mr
San Francisco,CA 94119

Self-Employed

8/20/2004

$312

Renzi, Rick

Schwab, Charles Mr
San Francisco,CA 94119

Self-Employed

8/20/2004

$312

Tauzin, Billy III

SCHWAB, CHARLES R
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB & CO INC

6/7/2001

$100,000

NRCC/Non-Federal 2

SCHWAB, CHARLES R
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB & CO. INC./OWNER

12/20/2002

$1,000

Rely on Your Beliefs

SCHWAB, CHARLES R MR
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

CHARLES SCHWAB & CO. INC.

10/29/2002

$100,000

NRCC/Non-Federal 2

SCHWAB, CHARLES R MR
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94104

CHARLES SCHWAB & CO. INC./CHAIRMAN

2/4/2002

$3,000

Investment Co Institute

SCHWAB, CHARLES R MR
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

SELF-EMPLOYED/CHAIRMAN

6/26/2003

$2,000

Bush, George W

SCHWAB, CHARLES R MR
SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94119

SELF-EMPLOYED/CHAIRMAN

5/6/2004

$2,000

Bush, George W

...more...

Bush summit: All show, no go

http://www.pww.org/article/view/1762/1/103/

It was “all show and no go” at George W. Bush’s economic summit in Waco, Texas, Aug. 13, a stage-managed production with a handpicked cast of Republican loyalists dutifully applauding Bush’s trite line that all is well because “this is America.” The Dow Jones reacted by plummeting 206 points, while US Airways announced it was bankrupt, with United Airlines expected to follow suit, meaning the loss of thousands of jobs. American Airlines announced it will eliminate 7,500 jobs. This despite Bush’s ramming through a $14 billion bailout of the airlines right after Sept. 11.

At the summit, Bush sat beside Charles W. Schwab of Charles Schwab brokerage corporation, which poured $406,000 in soft money into Republican campaign coffers in the 2000 elections. “The bear market that we’re suffering through right now is probably the worst I have ever gone through and that’s not a very comfortable place to be,” Schwab said glumly. As he spoke, his $700 billion corporation was announcing 400 layoffs.

...more...

April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the world's biggest financial-services company, said first-quarter earnings rose 3.2 percent on lower credit losses at its consumer-banking unit and gains in private-equity investments. The company said it may buy back as much as $15 billion more in stock.

Net income climbed to a record $5.44 billion, or $1.04 a share. Citigroup, led by Chief Executive Officer Charles Prince, 55, was expected to have profit of $5.38 billion, or $1.02 a share, the average estimate of 18 analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. Revenue was $21.5 billion.

Citigroup's biggest gains came at its Alternative Investments unit, where profit soared to $362 million from $26 million as the bank revalued its stakes in closely held companies. Profit at the Citigroup unit that provides loans, credit cards and branch-banking services rose 9 percent, or $231 million, buoyed by a decline in bad debts.

``It was a little bit of a surprise on the downside,'' said Phillip Kain, an analyst at Berean Capital Inc. in Chicago. ``The company is going to come back with the stock buyback, which is a vote of confidence.''

(more)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a0Kam8BKTKbk&refer=home#

briefing.com

9:17AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.0. Stage remains set for a lower open as the futures market continues to trade well below fair value... Mar industrial production has just checked in up 0.3%, in line with forecasts, while Capacity Utilization of 79.4% came in slightly lower than forecasts of 79.6% and below the 80% inflection point typically associated with inflationary pressures

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.0. Futures trade improves to its best levels of the morning, but still point to a lower open for the cash market... More positive news out of GE (i.e. reaffirmed Q2 guidance, dividend increases and accelerated buybacks), coupled with some clarity on Citigroup's better than expected earnings and $15 bln buyback, has helped improve underlying sentiment; but IBM's disappointment and a discouraging read on regional manufacturing continues to take its toll in pre-market trading...

Meanwhile, Mar. Industrial Production (consensus +0.3%) and Capacity Utilization (consensus 79.6%) will be out 9:15 ET

8:34AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -5.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.5. Futures trade pulls back a bit following weaker than expected economic data, still suggesting a lower open for the indices... April NY Empire State Index has just checked in at a disappointing 3.1, well below expectations and a revised read of 20.2

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -6.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.5. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a lower open for the cash market as investors weigh a surprising Q1 disappointment from IBM and a mixed quarterly report from Citigroup (C) against better than expected Q1 earnings from GE...

ino.com

The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline, which led to a breakout below March's low crossing at 1463.50. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Thursday's breakout below March's low at 1463.50 has renewed this year's decline and has led to a test of weekly support crossing at 1433.06 overnight. If June extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 1387.77 is the next downside target later this spring. The June NASDAQ 100 was down 8.00 pts. at 1433 as of 5:41 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was slightly lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline, which led to a breakout below March's low crossing at 1166.80. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Thursday's breakout below March's low at 1166.80 has renewed this year's decline while opening the door for a test of weekly support crossing at 1150 possibly later today. The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.60 pts. at 1159 as of 5:46 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning.

Dow 10,249.04 -29.71 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,933.60 -13.11 (-0.67%)
S&P 500 1,159.22 -2.83 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.290 -0.68 (-1.56%)

NYSE Volume 43,074,000
Nasdaq Volume 71,806,000

Wheee....

http://www.programtrading.com/curbs.htm

Program Trading "Circuit Breakers"
If the Dow Jones Industrial Average falls 10%, trading is halted on the New York Stock Exchange for 60 minutes. If the Dow Jones rallies 10%, there is no restriction. Why? Because program buying and the accompany rally is always perceived as "good".

If the Dow Jones Industrial Average falls 20%, trading is halted on the New York Stock Exchange for two hours. There is no trading halt if it rallies 20%, as that would be perceived as "very very good".

If the Dow Jones Industrial Average falls 30%, trading is halted on the New York Stock Exchange for the day. There is no trading halt if it rallies 30%, as that would be perceived as "the best thing that ever happened in the history of the world".

According to the NYSE the current 10, 20 and 30 percent decline levels, respectively, in the DJIA will be as follows: A 1,050 point drop in the DJIA will halt trading for one hour if the decline occurs before 2 p.m.; for 30 minutes if before 2:30 p.m.; and have no effect between 2:30 p.m. and 4 p.m. A 2,150 point drop will halt trading for two hours if the decline occurs before 1 p.m.; for one hour if before 2 p.m.; and for the remainder of the day if between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. A 3,200 point drop will halt trading for the remainder of the day regardless of when the decline occurs. Point levels are set quarterly by using the DJIA average closing values of the previous month, rounded to the nearest 50 points. The percentage levels are adjusted quarterly on Jan. 1, April 1, July 1 and October 1.

From the same link above:

Program Trading "Collars"
A collar on program trading firms instituted by the NYSE is most commonly referred to on CNBC as "curbs in". The NYSE applies program trading curbs whenever the Dow Jones Industrial Average moves 210 points higher, or 210 points lower than the previous day's closing price.

This NYSE restriction on program trades stays in place until the Dow Jones returns to within 100 points of the previous day's closing price; or, until the end of the trading day at 3:00 CT. The restrictions will be re-imposed each time the Dow Jones advances or declines 200 points. NYSE Trading Curbs apply only to our firm's (and other program trading firm's) computer assisted program trades. Contrary to what the public thinks, these collars do not completely stop all program trading, nor do they cancel out today's premium (prem) execution levels.

The NYSE defines a Program Trade as:
1. A basket of 15 or more stocks from the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.
2. A basket of stocks from the Standard & Poor's 500 Index valued at $1 million or more.

Once the NYSE program trading collar is in place, Program Selling can be executed only on an up-tick. That means that the last trade was executed at a higher price than the trade before it. Program Buying can be executed only on a down-tick. That means that the last trade was executed at a lower price than the trade before it.

I was having a flashback to the hay days of in the office train wreck watching and remembered the flashing signs.

extenuating circumstances as well? But, then again - we'll never know for sure, will we.

right at key technical levels the other day as well. :tinfoilhat: Let's face it, a government can't control itself from intervening once it gains the capability. What may have been implemented with the best intentions of protecting from a crash has probably been abused and misused more than a few times to keep a party going long after closing time. Worry about payin' the fiddler later....The tab is coming due.

:tinfoilhat: here, too, 54anickel

I thought that perhaps the Yahoo site was down, so I went to the NYSE and found that nothing was moving there either.

here's an article (I was just reading it) that talks about "self-regulated" agencies.

This "lack of regulation" is rather disturbing - but is one of the main things the right has been pushing forever (it seems).

The fox guarding the henhouse.

I worked in law enforcement a long time ago and wondered - who polices the police - I finally decided that we, as citizens, police the police - and we (like we are doing here on the SMW) must police these lying, cheating, scamming, whoring agencies that are supposed to be the watchdogs of the investments of the people.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B725B452D%2DFC01%2D41E8%2DB498%2D74A0F5373AC6%7D&siteid=mktw

Can Wall Street police itself?
NYSE's trading turmoil heightens regulatory scrutiny

excerpt:

Faced with scandal after scandal, the Securities and Exchange Commission is looking at whether the NYSE and other major institutions in securities industry are capable of policing themselves.

<snip>

The failure of the NYSE to police itself has drawn attention to what critics say is the sorry state of self-regulatory organizations, including the Big Board and the National Association of Securities Dealers.

<snip>

"Self regulatory organizations must fulfill their obligations to enforce the rules, and if they do not, the commission will not hesitate to bring action against them," Karpati said in an interview.

<snip>

"Not only don't the self-regulatory organizations see what's under their noses, but their public relations staffs seem satisfied to churn out inappropriate excuses," said Bill Singer, a securities lawyer.

...more...

(I hate one sentence paragraphs! :rant: )

Government is supposed to regulate the industries that function within its borders - that is the function of the government - not to be freakin' nosy about your personal religious beliefs, but to make certain that you honor your contractual and business agreements. This stupid (and that is the only word that I can think of to describe it) idea that businesses should be "free" to run roughshod over the environment, communities, individuals, employees is insane.

Sorry to have gone off here, but it really is starting to get to me.

:rant:

For the rant:

A Dirty Little Footnote to the Energy Bill
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/15/business/15pollute.html

snip>

If oil and chemical companies have their way, a majority of lawsuits like United Water's will be thrown out by Congress as part of the energy bill backed by the Bush administration. The bill, which won easy approval from the House Energy and Commerce Committee late Wednesday, includes a waiver that would protect the chemical makers, which are some of the biggest oil giants in the United States, from all MTBE liability lawsuits filed since September 2003.

The House majority leader, Tom DeLay, and Representative Joe L. Barton, who heads the Energy and Commerce Committee, are staunch supporters of the waiver. Both are Republicans from Texas, where more than a dozen MTBE manufacturers are based.

snip>

Mr. Barton said an energy bill, even one containing the controversial waiver, has a better chance of passing this time because of Congress's frustration with gasoline prices. But the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee seems no more inclined to support MTBE protection now. "For a lot of senators this is a deal-breaker issue that would prompt them to vote down again an energy bill that they would otherwise support," said Marnie Funk, the committee spokeswoman.

The oil industry is not backing down, either. "The MTBE waiver issue is Priority 1, 2 and 3 for the refining industry," said Lawrence J. Goldstein, president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation in New York. "Without it they aren't going to get behind the energy bill."

Mr. Henning sees a painful paradox in the situation. Nearly two decades ago, the oil companies were asked to find a gasoline additive that would help cut air pollution. "They were attempting to do the right thing," he said. "But they left an oil spill, an invisible oil spill under the ground. Now they are trying to hide behind Congress rather than deal with the issue."

more...


And this one's a bit worrisome and may help to explain some of the bizarre movement in the dollar lately: :shrug:

http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp

snip>

• Foreign non-official (hedge funds) purchases of US treasuries rose 39% to $31.5 billion, accounting for 76% of the increase in total net foreign purchases of US Treasuries, after making up 94% of the total increase in January. We deem this as a negative because purchases from hedge funds a have proven to be largely volatile and unreliable. The question is especially raised for the March data when US treasury yields hit 4.50% on Fed inflationary concerns.

While Japanese holdings of US treasuries barely averted another monthly decline (see chart below), the pace of the past 6 months clearly suggests receding interest in US treasuries by the largest foreign owner of Treasury debt. Meanwhile, Treasury holdings by Caribbean centers—usually offshore centers for hedge funds—rose 11% to a record $104, after a 33% rise in January. This increase is consistent with the aforementioned rise in private purchases of US treasuries.

Despite the unexpectedly strong TICS figure, the dollar fell across the board. We see the increased evidence of a cooling in the US economy dissuading the Fed from tightening in H2. A record high trade deficit expected to remove 1.0-1.3% off GDP, the first drop in retails and ex-autos and gasoline and today’s industrial output showing Q1 output at 3.6% from Q4’s 4.6% are amid the latest data.Today’s NY Fed manufacturing survey hitting a 2-year low does not bode well for the month’s ISM.

The not so hawkish minutes earlier in the week, coupled with the falling 10-2 year yield spread to fresh 4-year lows at 0.68%, should begin limiting the carry trade in the currency market and limit the dollar at its current 200 day moving average.


I don't like seeing that word - {b]should. Makes me wonder if that's what Greenspin and his bag of tricks is trying to do once again.

So you suppose what we are seeing are the results of a last desperate attempt by the Fed to force the carry trade to unwind? Greenspin made no secret a few months back that he wanted them to unwind, yet it looks like they've been hedging all the more. It's looking like some sort of stand-off. :shrug:

Dow 10,211.73 -67.02 (-0.65%)
Nasdaq 1,929.07 -17.64 (-0.91%)
S&P 500 1,155.76 -6.29 (-0.54%)
10-Yr Bond 4.286 -0.72 (-1.65%)

NYSE Volume 190,828,000
Nasdaq Volume 210,906,000

9:40AM: Stocks open lower following mixed earnings from a number of blue chips... Most notably has been a stunning Q1 disappointment from tech bellwether IBM (IBM 78.88 -5.69), which has opened at a new 52-week low after missing analysts' forecasts by $0.05 on lower than expected revenues amid economic weakness abroad and difficulty closing deals late in the quarter... As if surprising investors two days ahead of schedule with lower than expected results was not enough, the notion that global IT demand could be slowing has sparked widespread concerns that business spending may be waning...

Separately, a preliminary read on April Consumer Sentiment (consensus 91.7) should hit the wires momentarily...

(edited for html)

Dow 10,260.05 -18.70 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 1,938.78 -7.93 (-0.41%)
S&P 500 1,159.66 -2.39 (-0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.286 -0.72 (-1.65%)

NYSE Volume 273,593,000
Nasdaq Volume 295,525,000

faeries or vultures?

Dow 10,254.59 -24.16 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq 1,935.88 -10.83 (-0.56%)
S&P 500 1,159.74 -2.31 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.277 -0.81 (-1.86%)

NYSE Volume 400,898,000
Nasdaq Volume 416,328,000

10:00AM: University of Michigan sentiment disappoints at 88.7, versus expectations of 91.5 and down from a prior read of 92.6... A whipsaw reaction following this otherwise disappointing consumer sentiment figure, as the indices have pared their losses considerably... Arguably, the rebound effort has been helped along by a sense that the opening sell-off created an oversold market, which could help explain the counter intuitive move following the sentiment report... As an aside, bear in mind that today is an options expiration day that can invite increased volatility...NYSE Adv/Dec 730 mln/1825, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 826/1607

here we come.

Saw him on “nose kandy” Kudlow yesterday and they were all panicky sounding.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38457.4481103588-834189782&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- High energy prices could serve to slow world economic growth and may be pinching U.S. retail activity, Treasury Secretary John Snow said in an interview with Bloomberg Television Friday. Current price levels "if sustained, will create headwinds for the global economy," he said. Higher prices are "certainly not helpful" to the U.S. economy and may be part of the reason "people are not going out to the malls," he said. Earlier, Snow told CNBC that congressional passage of an energy bill would send a signal to world oil markets that the United States was ready to "put its house in order on energy policy."

10:32am 04/15/05 SNOW: TIME FOR CHINA TO MOVE ON CURRENCY FLEXIBILITY

10:30am 04/15/05 SNOW SAYS OIL PRICES ARE SLOWING U.S. RETAIL SALES

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=8198169

snip>

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, on Bloomberg television, acknowledged that costlier oil hurt. But he also indicated the G7 was preparing for an era in which energy prices are likely to stay at levels not foreseen as recently as a year ago.

"These prices are out of line and I'm confident there will be adaptations to these prices, both in terms of the supply side and the demand side," Snow said.

Ahead of sessions that begin with a working dinner on Friday night and end late Saturday morning, European sources also indicated part of the purpose was to talk about how to prepare the world to live with permanently costlier energy.

SKIRMISHING ON TAXES

Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said on Friday economies need to acclimate themselves to costlier oil.

snip>

There already was an apparent rift over a call by France for countries with low tax rates to boost them on energy products to encourage conservation -- a measure seen aimed at the Bush administration, for whom taxes are anathema.

more...

:nuke:

might be more fitting by day's end.....

Julie

There seems to be some bargin hunters out today, still bleeding badly though.

From (http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1113573600.php)

Concerns IBM's drop:

...At the very least, tech stocks are going to get savaged for IBM’s shortcomings. But does bad news from a single corporate bellwether mean that all of the other tech stocks are likely to disappoint? The answer hardly matters, since, as we all know, survival in this game often comes down to racing a bunch of idiots to the fire escape.

I'm 'modrepubinPA'....Always try to check this thread whenever I log into DU. Very informative. Ya, the Rapturist Right takeover of the Republican Party has proven to be socially regressive/fiscally irresponsible...The polar opposite of what I thought the Republican party stood for.

Anyway, nice to see a fellow sane Republican on DU.:toast:

for everyone lurking here today :D

:beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer:

:toast: to all the modrepubs (even those in PA and elsewhere) that understand that the only thing honest in today's conservative is the "con" :hi:

er, do I still get a beer if I'm not a Republican lurker? Just a moderately sane Democratic (mostly) lurker who appreciates moderately sane Republicans?

:beer::beer:

there's more to share, I'll just put it on Ozy's tab :evilgrin:

:hi:

But I suppose I should kick in a round now and again too (besides, it looks like we're gonna need it today) so...

:beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer:

and

:hi: back atcha!

It's my birthday - and watching the markets go into a meltdown is rather bizarre :D

:beer::beer:

:hi:

Kind of a weird birthday party you're having here though...

Oh well, I'll join in

:party: :woohoo: :party: :woohoo: :party: :woohoo: :party: :woohoo: :party:

It really is a weird birthday party :D

I think I'm partying like there's no tomorrow (have dessert first, you know).

:party: :woohoo: :bounce:

:beer::smoke::beer::smoke:

TGIF!

:hi:

figure you might need a sugar fix about now!

:blush:

I won't sleep all night now - love those sugar highs! :D

You rock! You bring us so much info and great insights, you're way up on my list of DU Greats!!

:toast:

Julie

:hug:

:grouphug:

To you and all the Marketeers (and lurkers)

:toast::toast:

:yourock:

:toast: :toast: :toast: :toast: :toast: :toast:

Just because the market seems to be toast no reason for you to have a bad birthday, I'll pick up a round.
:beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer:

:donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut:

:toast:

I will report that I had a great birthday - my family and friends and the Marketeers and lurkers (some finally coming out :D ) made for a day that gave me all the things that are truly important in life - the knowledge that I am loved and respected and can remain 28 forever :hi:

You got the 'con' part right in the neocons of today...hope those idiots are all pleased with how the 'economy is strong'.

(Ozy left his card lying around :evilgrin: )

:beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer:

UpInArms, OZY, 54, Julie, Maeve...Keep up the great job, I follow this thread EVERY day...and it has been LIVELY these last few days!!

All lined up! :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer:

-mojavekid

but there's more to be had here too

:beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer:

one more before I go!:beer: ok, one more:beer:

and for the house!

:beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer:

Dow 10,213.65 -65.10 (-0.63%)
Nasdaq 1,926.06 -20.65 (-1.06%)
S&P 500 1,156.67 -5.38 (-0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.320 -0.38 (-0.87%)

NYSE Volume 1,032,144,000
Nasdaq Volume 987,279,000

11:30AM: More of the same as the major indices continue to chalk up losses... While IBM's (IBM 77.99 -5.65) sluggish quarter has cast a shadow over stocks - accounting for roughly 80% of the weakness on the Dow - better than expected Q1 earnings from two other blue chips have at least helped minimize losses on the index...

General Electric (GE 36.36 +0.86), which is more reflective of broad global economic conditions, has beaten analysts' forecasts by a penny and reaffirmed FY05 guidance while Citigroup (C 46.24 +0.84), in addition to reporting Q1 profits two cents ahead of estimates, has approved a $15.0 bln share repurchase program... NYSE Adv/Dec 1146/1839, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1094/1671

11:00AM: Sellers remain in control of the action as weaker than expected economic data continues to weigh on sentiment... The April NY Empire State manufacturing survey plunged 17 points to a paltry 3.1 - the lowest level since April 2003... While any read above zero still suggests growth and the survey is only represenative of one region (Northeast), the number still checked in well below expectations of 18.0 and a revised read of 20.2, raising concerns about upcoming reads on regional manufacturing activity...

Also worth noting, Mar industrial production of +0.3%, merely matched expectations, while Capacity Utilization of 79.4% - the largest rate since Dec. 2000 - came in slightly below forecasts of 79.6%; but, more positively, checked in below the key 80% barrier over which inflationary pressures are generated...NYSE Adv/Dec 1210/1703, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1159/1548

Why are you people so negative all of the time?

As usual, as he has his whole life.

And now the effects of his idiotic screw-ups are beginning to appear in the economy. You can only borrow and spend and hand out bonuses to the rich for so long before your house of cards comes down.

bloody fun!

Oops in advance if you were being sarcastic. While some posters fit the type, most of the time I don't think it's just a case of bashing for the fun of bashing.
Going on five years now, we've been fed an almost constant stream of stories and statments telling us just how well that the Bush influenced economy is doing and how well his tax cuts worked, etc.
Now the stock market isn't the only indicator, but it's an easily scaled one and it's been used as a rough measure of the nation's economic health for decades. The current market is a few hundred points below where it was when Bush took over and the dollars that it's tracked in are only worth about 70-80 percent or so what they were when he took over, therefore, it's valid to say that the market is down about 20 percent since he took over.
Responding to the real health of the market does not make us negative, it makes us accurate.
Finally, being overly positive about the market will hurt you a lot more than being overly negative.

glad to have you here :hi:

because we are not idiots

is the PPT the only thing holding the market up from where it MIGHT go without any interference? :shrug:

Seems like only bad news is coming out these last couple of days. Maybe the kool-aid drinkers have had their fill for now.

Thanks, Marketeers, for keeping us informed!

:yourock:

Dow 10,202.43 -76.32 (-0.74%)
Nasdaq 1,924.06 -22.65 (-1.16%)
S&P 500 1,155.30 -6.75 (-0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 4.319 -0.39 (-0.89%)

NYSE Volume 1,272,200,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,180,112,00

12:00PM: Selling remains the name of the game midday as underlying sentiment languishes in the wake of mixed earnings reports among blue chips and disappointing economic data... Not only did IBM (IBM 77.43 -6.21) surprise investors two days before it was scheduled to report earnings, but the tech bellwether has also posted lower than expected Q1 results, missing analysts' expectations by $0.05 and spurring widespread worries that business spending may be deteriorating...

While stronger than expected results from General Electric (GE 36.45 +0.95), which has also reaffirmed FY05 guidance, and Citigroup (C 46.25 +0.85), which has also approved a $15.0 bln share buyback, have minimized weakness among blue chips, gains have not been enough to lift investors' spirits heading into the weekend... A fourth consecutive decline in consumer confidence, to 88.7 (consensus 91.5), and a regional manufacturing survey (NY Empire State) plunging to its lowest level since April 2003 - to 3.1 versus forecasts of 18.0 - has also prevented buyers from potentially finding bargains after broad-based declines yesterday pushed the major indices to new lows for the year...

Meanwhile, volatile trading in Treasurys has kept the 10-year note (-2/32) relatively range bound, yielding 4.31%... Pacing the way the downside continues to be Technology (-2.5%), largely influenced led by a 4.0% sell-off in the Hardware group following IBM's disappointment... The Materials sector (-0.4%) has also extended losses despite profit taking in the greenback ahead of the G7 meeting while Energy (-0.3%), amid falling oil prices ($50.35/bbl -$0.78), has also traded lower... Also under pressure has been Consumer Discretionary (-1.2%), Telecom Services (-0.8%) and Utility (-0.8%)...

the buck

Last trade 84.45 Change -0.55 (-0.65%)

Settle 85.00 Settle Time 23:36

Open 85.14 Previous Close 85.00

High 85.27 Low 84.35

Last tick: 2005-04-15 12:01:19 ET
30-min delayed quote.

maybe the faeries are in "suspended animation" :evilgrin:

not seeing many vultures circling either ;)

:hi:

that's when they usually show up anyway....

Dow 10,193.99 -84.76 (-0.82%)
Nasdaq 1,921.72 -24.99 (-1.28%)
S&P 500 1,154.56 -7.49 (-0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 4.308 -0.50 (-1.15%)

NYSE Volume 1,601,183,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,436,897,000

1:30PM: Market bounces off session lows but not nearly enough to make a significant change in the standings, as selling remains widespread across most areas... Bucking the bearish bias, however, has been Biotech (2.0%)... Leading the charge has been Genentech (DNA 68.38 +9.75), which has hit an all-time high after positive Phase III trial results of Avastin in metastatic breast cancer patients prompted upgrades from Prudential and JP Morgan... Other notable AMEX Biotech Index components surging on the news include PDLI (+8.4%), MLNM (+5.1%) and HGSI (+1.0%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 795/2368, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 738/2210

1:00PM: Renewed wave of selling interest extends the indices reach into negative territory... The Dow has recently failed to find support near the 10170 mark while intensified selling has prevented both the S&P and Nasdaq from holding secondary support near levels of 1153 and 1920, respectively... While fundamentals have not worsened significantly, and economic growth and earnings growth remain above long-term trends, investors still remain very cautious as sector leadership continues to weaken, arguably increasing the risk of owning equities heading into the weekend...NYSE Adv/Dec 912/2217, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 893/2032

12:30PM: Little changed since the last update as a bearish bias remains intact... Decliners on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq hold a more than 2 to 1 advantage over advancers while the ratio of down to up volume reflects an even more negative tone at both the Big Board and the Composite, as nearly three stocks have fallen for every one that has advanced... Meanwhile, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq during the month of April - earmarked as the best month to own blue chips - have already lost roughly 2.9%, 2.2% and 3.8%, respectively...

What happened :shrug:

Oh well, guess I will go read the thread later, thanks

Folks' 401k's are getting squeezed. AGAIN! Ouch.

:kick:

can't you all see we're "turning the corner"?

Major sarcasm here. These Republican assholes are ruining my retirement savings!

2:02 EST numbers

Dow 10,180.03 -98.72 (-0.96%)
Nasdaq 1,922.68 -24.03 (-1.23%)
S&P 500 1,153.11 -8.94 (-0.77%)
10-Yr Bond 4.310 -0.48 (-1.10%)

NYSE Volume 1,727,751,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,546,954,000

just locking in the numbers before the faeries wake up :evilgrin:

Dow 10,177.29 -101.46 (-0.99%)
Nasdaq 1,922.03 -24.68 (-1.27%)
S&P 500 1,152.71 -9.34 (-0.80%)
10-Yr Bond 4.309 -0.49 (-1.12%)

NYSE Volume 1,766,467,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,574,195,000


2:00PM: Indices continue to languish near their lows as investors find few catalysts to lift stocks in afternoon trading... Aside from IBM's leadership to the downside on the Dow, there have been a few other notable names offsetting gains from the likes of GE, C, AIG, JPM, PFE, JNJ and MRK... Shares of General Motors (GM 25.91 -0.75), in spite of a Prudential upgrade to Overweight based on unfounded bankruptcy fears and confidence that the $2 dividend will remain intact, have hit a 12-year low following reports that the UAW won't reopen its contract to reduce the GM's health-care burden...

ExxonMobil (XOM 56.99 -1.76) and Alcoa (AA 29.45 -0.45) have also plummeted, amid sector rotation out of commodities stocks... NYSE Adv/Dec 906/2272, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 856/2116

Dow 10,160.30 -118.45 (-1.15%)
Nasdaq 1,920.85 -25.86 (-1.33%)
S&P 500 1,150.99 -11.06 (-0.95%)
10-Yr Bond 4.302 -0.56 (-1.28%)

NYSE Volume 1,905,516,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,691,686,000

Did anyone else notice that since those 20 traders got suspended on Wednesday morning, that the faeries seem to have gone into hiding?

2:00 had a small spike, but there is not as much wind beneath their wings. Maybe they need a workout.



(did a search on fairie lifting weights and got Arnold in the buff, ewww):evilgrin:

:spray:

the Ahnold fairy visual was too much! :rofl:

I did not put up the "totally" naked pic, but here is the closest thing:
enjoy!

:spray:

the visual reality was much like my imagination - he just needed fairy wings :D

:toast::toast:

hehehehehe

:spray:

Nice job Dimson.

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=8196097

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Mattel Inc. (MAT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , the No. 1 toymaker, on Friday said first-quarter net earnings fell 28 percent, missing Wall Street estimates, as sales of Barbie plunged and gross margins fell.

Chief Executive Robert Eckert said early 2005 results were disappointing and the company had "a lot of work to do," and its shares fell nearly 7 percent.

Mattel, whose brands also include American Girl dolls and Rescue Heroes figures, said net income fell to $6.5 million, or 2 cents per share, a penny below the average forecast among analysts polled by Reuters Estimates.

Operating income was down 57 percent at $5.5 million, primarily due to lower gross margin.

...more...

and wasn't it just this week:

Mattel CEO 2004 total pay $3.6M less options

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/archivedStory.asp?archive=true&dist=ArchiveSplash&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B6C27B093%2D53A5%2D4DEE%2D898A%2DB1FC9EBD1245%7D&returnURL=%2Fnews%2Fstory%2Easp%3Fguid%3D%7B6C27B093%2D53A5%2D4DEE%2D898A%2DB1FC9EBD1245%7D%26siteid%3Dmktw%26dist%3D%26archive%3Dtrue%26param%3Darchive%26garden%3D%26minisite%3D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Mattel Inc. (MAT) said Wednesday that Chairman and Chief Executive Robert A. Eckert received total 2004 compensation of $3.6 million excluding stock options, compared with about $12.85 million in 2003.

The 2004 figure includes a salary of $1.25 million, a bonus of $984,344 and "all other compensation" of about $1.37 million. The 2003 figure includes a salary of $1.25 million, a bonus of $633,998 and "all other compensation" of $10.96 million. .

...

Not to the true actors on history's stage. Here you are bemoaning this so-called reality, and its effect on so-called people. This won't affect the 1,000 people in Bush's social circle of government capitalists, they would do fine even if it fell to 1,000. His grandfather would be proud, by impoverishing the "losers" and denying them healthcare, Bush is furthering grampa's eugenics program. So you see, W really is a tremendous success. Its just a matter of perspective.

"my grandchildren will not be affected"?

Down, doobie do down down
doobie doobie do doobie do down down
falling down is hard to do

Don't take your dust away from me
Don't you leave my stocks in misery
If you fall then I'll be blue
'Cause falling down is hard to do

Remember when the boom would never end
And my portfolio you'd always mend
Think of all that we've been through
Falling Down Is Hard To Do

They say that Falling Down is hard to do
Now I know, I know that it's true
Don't say that this is the end
Instead of Falling Down I wish that we were going up again

I beg of you, don't say goodbye
Can't we give your dust another try
Come on faeries, let's start anew
'Cause Falling Down is hard to do

**edited because it'st faeries, not pixies!**

Dow 10,148.77 -129.98 (-1.26%)
Nasdaq 1,919.24 -27.47 (-1.41%)
S&P 500 1,149.41 -12.64 (-1.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.298 -0.60 (-1.38%)

NYSE Volume 2,010,048,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,777,110,000

thanks for the song, bain_sidhe - I read the "sexy" thread earlier and now I can at least kick Rod Stewart and "if you think" out with my now new Sedaka tune :D

but I'm not sure Sedaka is all that much better. At least Stewart had SOME good stuff. Sedaka was just bubblegum pap all the way. But still...

Down doobie do down down...

is certainly more appropriate for today!

Have the Powers That Be just decided to let 'er rip, and keep their hands off? Or are they still trying to keep it up, but can't compete with the downward pressure?

:tinfoilhat: I have a feeling that there's some BIG NEWS coming that we don't know about yet. In fact, I woke up this morning, and it was the "feeling" that first hit me....way before I came to Market Watch.

Are China and Japan about to pull the plug? Are countries outside the U.S. about to switch oil to Euros? (OPEC?)

Sometimes things get nasty on the market when the insiders know something we don't...yet.

But, then again....I'm so paranoid about this government that my imagination runs loose with all kinds of scenarios.

:kick:

back to Wednesday's wrapup

snip>

I called and emailed a few of my market analyst cohorts, and they all completely agreed that what we saw was a pure ramp job on the U.S. dollar along with the late explosion of stock prices. Yesterday when the Dow Industrials were down about 50 points they came out with the indictments of fraud for the NYSE specialists. I figured that confidence breaker should have been good for another 50 points down, but the market rallied to close higher…because the Fed released the minutes of their meeting, of course. The projected softness for interest rate hikes and big declines in energy prices didn’t do squat for the stock market today. The Dow was hammered for 104 points to 10,403 and the NASDAQ was clocked for 31 points to 1,974. Right now, stocks are the least important for our market managers. The dollar is critical, as there appears to be MUCH going on behind the scenes in the FOREX markets, and the bond market is critical because interest rates affect everything, especially housing prices right now.

One of the top analysts I sent an email had this as part of his reply, “To be honest Mike, I am sick to death with what I see these jokers do day in and day out. It does appear we have entered some brave new world in which our financial masters know what is best for us pitiful peasants. I suppose the stakes are so high they feel justified in playing their games, but they do so from the shadows like thieves lurking in the night.” He went on with a great deal more and I read testimony after testimony of many investors that thought there was some heavy intervention with the dollar. Bill Murphy titled his piece last night, “Manipulation OF US Financial Markets Intensifying.” I think my buddy said it all when he wrote, “I suppose the stakes are so high they feel justified in playing their games.” Folks, the stakes are incredibly HIGH!!! The euro is competing for dual status as a global reserve currency with the dollar, Iran might be opening a commodities exchange denominated in euro, China is being pressured to remove its peg to the U.S. dollar, and on and on. The stakes are very high indeed! Fiat paper money across the globe is being called into question, especially the fiat U.S. dollar.

All this stuff is highly complex. I keep thinking and wondering if they will be able to keep the dollar propped-up. They have to keep flooding the markets with liquidity to keep paper asset prices high (stocks and bonds), but have to keep a lid on inflation. We know from experience the Fed has VERY LITTLE discipline in controlling monetary aggregates, so they have chosen the easier course by doing all they can to suppress commodity prices, especially gold, silver and oil. All this bearish news with crude oil inventories, reduced global demand from the IEA, Greenspan saying oil will go down, and the Saudis pumping more crude are all intended to push energy prices lower. In a month or so we will probably see that this is just an ordinary correction in an ongoing bull market for energy. The overall bull market for commodities is way far from over, they just need to pump the money and contain inflation by trying to keep commodity prices in check.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/wednesday.htm

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38457.6141596412-834198661&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

VP Dick Cheney, wife Lynne, 2004 fed tax bill $393,518 (HAL) By Carolyn Pritchard
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Vice President Dick Cheney and wife, Lynne, had taxable income of $1.3 million in 2004, the White House said Friday, with a federal tax bill of $393,518. During the course of year, the Cheneys paid $290,855 in taxes through withholding and estimated tax payments. They paid $102,663 upon filing their tax return. The tax return reports $194,852 of deferred compensation from Halliburton Co. (HAL)

I thought the dickless one said he had no current interests in Halliburton - those were all gone - :banghead:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38457.6144131829-834198668&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

White House: President Bush, wife paid $207K in taxes By Carla Mozee
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The White House on Friday said President Bush and his wife, Laura, reported taxable income of $672,788 for 2004 and paid $207,307 in federal income taxes. The president's income includes his salary and investment income from trusts in which the couple's assets are held.

if all dimson's $$$ are in interest bearing accounts at 1.5% interest, that's a bunch of freakin' cash. :banghead:

2:38pm 04/15/05 VP CHENEY, WIFE 2004 FED TAX BILL $393,518

2:37pm 04/15/05 VP CHENEY, WIFE HAD 2004 TAXABLE INCOME OF $1.3M

2:32pm 04/15/05 PRESIDENT BUSH, WIFE HAD '04 TAXABLE INCOME $673K - AP

2:32pm 04/15/05 PRESIDENT BUSH, WIFE PAID $207,307IN '04 FED TAXES-AP

MSM finally noticed?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC8C446DD%2D6A68%2D49D4%2D8F91%2DD7C24C10F31C%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Concerns that the U.S. economy has stumbled into a soft patch have hit financial markets in the past few days.

In the past weeks, we've seen profit warnings from Blue Chip companies, weak retail sales, falling manufacturing output and record trade deficits.

On Friday, evidence surfaced that the slowdown has persisted into April, with key consumer and manufacturing indexes falling to two-year lows. See full story and this story.

"The manufacturing sector seems to be losing more than just a little momentum-the key culprit being the automobile industry," said Sherry Cooper, chief economist for BMO Nesbitt Burns.

Suddenly, everyone wants to know if this is the end of the expansion.

Financial markets have taken the slowdown seriously.

...more...

Did someone put down their glass of Kool-Aid?

ly underwhelming.

Sorry to be so prolific with frivolous posts, but I'm fighting a nicotine fit and need something to do with my hands. :D

must

not

smoke

must

not

AAARRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

No! I said NO!

but...

I said NO!

but...

NO BUTTS!

frivolous posts - only avenues of expression :D

have a virtual :smoke: with me -

ah, don't mind if I do

...

:smoke:

don't you know that? But, hey, whattheheck...

:smoke:

Ah. That's good. I think I'll have another.

:smoke:

See? No problem as long as I don't go overboard.

:smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke:
:smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke:

ooops.

But I can quit anytime I want.

:smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke:
:smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke:

I just don't want, yet.

:smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke:
:smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke::smoke:

Dow 10,122.31 -156.44 (-1.52%)
Nasdaq 1,914.66 -32.05 (-1.65%)
S&P 500 1,147.04 -15.01 (-1.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.271 -0.87 (-2.00%)

NYSE Volume 2,195,073,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,926,368,000

Oopsie! Look Out Below!

Oh, I see. Dow down 147 points. That explains it.

I should remember to chew some gum to allow my eardrums to adjust to the lower altitude...

3:40 EST

Dow 10,121.05 -157.70 (-1.53%)
Nasdaq 1,915.90 -30.81 (-1.58%)
S&P 500 1,146.76 -15.29 (-1.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.271 -0.87 (-2.00%)

NYSE Volume 2,339,652,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,050,498,000

Dow 10,128.52 -150.23 (-1.46%)
Nasdaq 1,915.91 -30.80 (-1.58%)
S&P 500 1,147.89 -14.16 (-1.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.271 -0.87 (-2.00%)

NYSE Volume 2,245,248,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,969,281,000

Where are the FAERIES!!!

Did they die?

Are they asleep?

Someone better WAKE THEM UP!

(looking under desk for faeries - similar to the way *Co did during his skit on WMDs)

3:30PM: Stocks continue to slide going into the close, spearheaded by widespread weakness in technology... While Computer Hardware (-4.5%) has been the largest laggard, extending yesterday's 2.5% sell-off due to IBM's Q1 earnings miss as well as a disappointing Q3 report from Sun Microsystems (SUNW 3.67 -0.29), Semiconductor (-2.0%) has also plummeted... The SOX index, which has tested 6-month lows spurred in part by multiple downgrades on chip equipment stocks, should again be in focus on Monday, ahead of Texas Instruments' (TXN 22.91 -0.48) Q1 earnings report after the close...NYSE Adv/Dec 849/2367, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 852/2209

the cheerleaders sound sad today :(

Dow 10,098.59 -180.16 (-1.75%)
Nasdaq 1,911.61 -35.10 (-1.80%)
S&P 500 1,144.78 -17.27 (-1.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.271 -0.87 (-2.00%)

NYSE Volume 2,391,721,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,097,512,000

"I'm going down, down, down, down."

I'm humming Tom Petty's Free Fallin' right about now:

Dow 10,086.25 -192.50 (-1.87%)
Nasdaq 1,909.35 -37.36 (-1.92%)
S&P 500 1,143.41 -18.64 (-1.60%)
10-Yr Bond 4.271% -0.09

Look at that 10yr go though! The little engine that could...

Julie

Dow 10,080.34 -198.41 (-1.93%)
Nasdaq 1,909.20 -37.51 (-1.93%)
S&P 500 1,143.61 -18.44 (-1.59%)
10-Yr Bond 4.271 -0.87 (-2.00%)

NYSE Volume 2,559,532,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,249,799,000

anti-climatic!

We talk about the "pointy things" putting an eye out, but it's the round numbers that are the killers, psychologically

Happy April 15th! Maybe the market realized there's no $$ coming in due to offshoring jobs, and tax revenues are way down.

:shrug: Who knows?

No it's the 1st quarter earnings, plus gas prices, plus what everybody knows: we are in deep trouble in this country with all our debt.

But if they were that rich they probably don't pay much taxes anyway.

I am betting that dump is a no confidence vote

the selling I did last year at good profit. I also sold
a whole bunch as soon as the year changed to 2005, so
that I have until April 2006 to pay taxes on that.

If that's the case and like we have been seeing this spread between 10,000 to 10,500 this is kind of run of mill operating range. I am still expecting it to fall below 10,000 in the next few months. Not this fast though, this is too artificial, these lows don't make sense.

Some kind of shake out I bet. A few of the big players probably just planned a lot of this to see how much they could scrape off the top. It will be back up next week. Even a casual observer like me can check the averages and see there is no real reason for this

note that prices are based on supply and demand. If there
is even a 10% imbalance, prices could change quickly.

My guess is several factors caused this fast meltdown:

> Tax day after 52% gain in previous 2 years
> Fear of Oil prices causing inflation which if true
will cause interest rates to go higher, a sure negative
for the market.

The way I am looking at it is, oil is likely to drop near $40
per barrel. Add to that the company profits for SP500 are still
increasing. Interest rates are STILL at historical lows.

The fear factor is causing weak hearted investors to bail
out. Once that selling is over and if inflation stays tame
along with good corporate profit levels, then market will
recover nicely.

gotta mask the real problems with the economy with terrorism. That will take it down to 6000

and thats the first thing that came into my mind.

our works network has been having some issues, its been up and down.

Thanks for asking
:hi:

:hi:

: )

Let's take Social Security and invest it in the stock market!

might make the market go down, you know...

:sarcasm:

Thanks for that - I needed the laugh :rofl:

b*sh isn't saying how cheep all the stocks are right now. If only we could dump SS :sarcasm: into it we would all be stinking filth rich :woohoo:

But this market day sure puts another nail in THAT coffin! :rofl:

Silly republicans. Steal the voting machines so they could work their magik on the economy.

has to deal with this crapy economy and millions of pissed off Americans.

This has been coming. Who would want to get hit in the head by a brick?

they want, no strike that, NEED that "Dumb Public Money" crossing the desks on wall street or else the reality of what our economy really is will no longer be able to be hidden.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={D68F870E-4DA3-4239-8DDE-5A8D47C65E99}&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks ended at their lows for the year Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling more 400 points in three days, in a week dominated by concern over a slowdown in the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) fell 198 points, or 1.9% to an unofficial close of 10,080, the first time the benchmark index has posted triple-digit declines three days in a row for more than two years. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) slumped 38 points, or 2% to 1,908.67 while the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) dropped 20 points, or 1.7% to 1,142.39.

We can watch the "Friday news dump" carefully tonite & over the weekend, because I still think there might be some bad news coming out. And from the looks of the market this week, I think a lot of the "big boys" know what it is.

But, I'm paranoid. :tinfoilhat:

I know it went up on Tuesday, but fell a lot on Monday (I think 4/5 days this week, there were triple digit losses.

I just hope this picks up before my kid starts college.

: )

Looks like she'll need bigger loans!

... I don't think this was just the coupon-clipping class cashing in a few of their assets to pay their ever-diminishing taxes....

Either way it goes, Monday is going to be really interesting.

so we can all confidently begin buying lots of stock again on Monday.

Julie

Hindsight is easy, but this alert was reaffirmed on April 11, before most of this week's plunge. The author has had a "sense of foreboding" for several weeks. www.financialsense.com/editorials/gillespie/2005/0411.html

Does anyone have those links handy?


That was a good link, btw, Paranoid_Portlander!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=1385468



AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 8, 2005

Dow... 10,461.34 -84.98 (-0.81%)
Nasdaq... 1,999.35 -19.44 (-0.96%)
S&P 500... 1,181.20 -9.94 (-0.83%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.49% +0.02 (+0.42%)
Gold future... 428.80 +0.40 (+0.09%)



Monday's closing post:

Dow 10448.56 -12.78 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq 1992.12 -7.23 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1181.21 +0.01 (+0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 4.445% -0.46

NYSE Volume 1,509,054,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,339,673,000

How long has it been since THAT happened?

You know what would be really bad? If you had your social security money in the stock market and you had to receive benefits based on any of the last three days' performance!

Are we headed back down below 10,000?

dp

The stock market looks like a cross-cut saw, tilted upwards over the long term.

Short term, this sort of thing HAPPENS.

Sheesh.

...the housing market.

Notice I said "when", not "if".

But don't confuse the housing market with the stock market. They are being driven by entirely different things. Stock market is behaving more or less normally - up and down by a few % in each direction, generally trending higher. (Many) Regional real estate markets are behaving very irrationally.

I'm expecting a lot of these real estate markets to get badly hammered within the next 18 months or so - but the only thing that means is that bank stocks will be beat up in the process.

My family also may well buy a large amount of real estate when it crashes because it will always crash harder than it should.