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4dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 09:06 AM
Original message
The end of oil is closer than you think
http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/feature/story/0,13026,1464050,00.html

All this news about peak oil just keeps getting better and better doesn't it!!


The one thing that international bankers don't want to hear is that the second Great Depression may be round the corner. But last week, a group of ultra-conservative Swiss financiers asked a retired English petroleum geologist living in Ireland to tell them about the beginning of the end of the oil age.

They called Colin Campbell, who helped to found the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre because he is an industry man through and through, has no financial agenda and has spent most of a lifetime on the front line of oil exploration on three continents. He was chief geologist for Amoco, a vice-president of Fina, and has worked for BP, Texaco, Shell, ChevronTexaco and Exxon in a dozen different countries.

"Don't worry about oil running out; it won't for very many years," the Oxford PhD told the bankers in a message that he will repeat to businessmen, academics and investment analysts at a conference in Edinburgh next week. "The issue is the long downward slope that opens on the other side of peak production. Oil and gas dominate our lives, and their decline will change the world in radical and unpredictable ways," he says.
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mhr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 09:08 AM
Response to Original message
1. Related - Clarion Call On Peak Oil By Matthew Simmons
Matthew Simmons is an energy banker and served on the Cheney energy panel in 2001. He is as well connected as they come.

The following link is to his latest presentation on Peak Oil.

The bottom line: the world has no more room for guesswork and needs to act now!

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Boston%20Committee%20on%20Foreign%20Relations.pdf

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4dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 09:55 AM
Response to Reply #1
12. Great presentation...
I wonder if this will be on the agenda at the Oil Depletion Conference : Peak Oil UK - Entering the Age of Oil Depletion on April 25 2005??

http://www.depletion-scotland.org.uk/#conference

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leftchick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 09:12 AM
Response to Original message
2. "Just kiss your lifestyle goodbye."!!! Yikes!
unless of course you are a neo-con in control of the reserves... :grr:

~snip~

Campbell reckons global peak production of conventional oil - the kind associated with gushing oil wells - is approaching fast, perhaps even next year. His calculations are based on historical and present production data, published reserves and discoveries of companies and governments, estimates of reserves lodged with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, speeches by oil chiefs and a deep knowledge of how the industry works.

"About 944bn barrels of oil has so far been extracted, some 764bn remains extractable in known fields, or reserves, and a further 142bn of reserves are classed as 'yet-to-find', meaning what oil is expected to be discovered. If this is so, then the overall oil peak arrives next year," he says.

If he is correct, then global oil production can be expected to decline steadily at about 2-3% a year, the cost of everything from travel, heating, agriculture, trade, and anything made of plastic rises. And the scramble to control oil resources intensifies. As one US analyst said this week: "Just kiss your lifestyle goodbye."

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4dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 09:25 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. I love this quote...
So did the Swiss bankers comprehend the seriousness of the situation when he talked to them? "There is no company on the stock exchange that doesn't make a tacit assumption about the availability of energy," says Campbell. "It is almost impossible for bankers to accept it. It is so out of their mindset."


I wonder when the mindset of the mainstream will pick this up??
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leftchick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 09:49 AM
Response to Reply #6
11. like with so many things
not until they are directly affected I am afraid. When they realize they can no longer afford groceries let alone to gas up the SUV?
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Wapsie B Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 09:15 AM
Response to Original message
3. It's all Clinton's fault!
Had to get it in there before anyone else did.
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SuffragetteSal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 09:20 AM
Response to Original message
4. Two words - Al Gore
Edited on Thu Apr-21-05 09:21 AM by SuffragetteSal
Earth in the Balance - Ecology and the Human Spirit - 1992. But oh no...the "people have spoken" and instead we have a backward thinking fool in office. Reminds me of another brilliant academic William O. Douglas (the longest serving Justice in the history of the Supreme Court). Read his book called Nature's Justice...
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cruadin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 09:24 AM
Response to Original message
5. Unfortunately, nobody--and I mean NOBODY--in a position...
of power will do anything about it until the inevitable disaster occurs. Only after there is a major collapse of the house of cards that is our modern, industrialized economy will the reality sink in for enough people to demand changes.
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4dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 09:27 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. Will that time be too late for change
If the inevitable disaster occurs and there is a major collapse of the modern industrial economies, wouldn't have be too late to demand change??

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cruadin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 09:32 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. It will certainly be too late to maintain the comfortable...
lifestyle of the industrialized world. I'm afraid that eventually there will be a backward slide into a much harsher and less forgiving economic situation (think Third World), and only that reality will stir enough people into action. Until then most will continue blithely along with their blinders firmly in place.
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havocmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 09:44 AM
Response to Reply #5
10. They're doing something about it. They are keeping the story quiet until
they have all they provisions lined up. You don't think they are hoarding $$ cuz it's pretty do you? The powerful are fcking over the workers and the environment in a last ditch effort to get all the coins they can so they can afford to maintain their comfort in the coming turmoil.
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Theres-a Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 10:33 AM
Response to Reply #10
15. Amen to that!
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BeHereNow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-23-05 02:40 AM
Response to Reply #10
62. EXACTLY right Havocmom.
They know exactly what time it is
and are going to do just fine through
what is coming down the road.
BHN
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KansDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 09:32 AM
Response to Original message
8. C'mon, folks! This is "junk science..."
Bush said so! Just let him decide what is "junk science" and what is the real thing! It'll be a lot easier on your brains and emotions if you just "go with the flow..."

Remember, "Let Bush think for you!"

Try it! Really!

Repeat...
"Bush knows best...Bush knows best..."

Bush knows best. Bush knows best. Bush knows best. Bush knows best. Bush knows best. Bush knows best.
Bush knows best. Bush knows best. Bush knows best. Bush knows best. Bush knows best. Bush knows best.

Bush...knows...best......Bush...knows...best...

Bush...knows...best......Bush...knows...best...Bush...knows...best.....Bush...knows...best...Bush...knows...best......Bush...knows...best...
Bush...knows...best......Bush...knows...best...Bush...knows...best.....Bush...knows...best...Bush...knows...best......Bush...knows...best...

(is it working yet?)
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Kool Kitty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 10:29 AM
Response to Reply #8
14. And always remember,
Edited on Thu Apr-21-05 10:31 AM by Kool Kitty
Bush knows best because God tells him what to do. :sarcasm: Never forget that the Almighty talks to Bush all the time!
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Theres-a Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 10:42 AM
Response to Reply #8
16. bush knows best...
bush..knows...best....
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tavalon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 07:27 PM
Response to Reply #8
39. (is it working yet?)
Nope, not yet.................
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leftchick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 10:03 AM
Response to Original message
13. I want to scream...
:banghead:

~snip~

According to Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review, a monthly magazine published by the Energy Institute in London, conventional oil reserves are now declining about 4-6% a year worldwide. He says 18 large oil-producing countries, including Britain, and 32 smaller ones, have declining production; and he expects Denmark, Malaysia, Brunei, China, Mexico and India all to reach their peak in the next few years.

"We should be worried. Time is short and we are not even at the point where we admit we have a problem," Skrebowski says. "Governments are always excessively optimistic. The problem is that the peak, which I think is 2008, is tomorrow in planning terms."

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JohnyCanuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 11:11 AM
Response to Original message
17. The Most Important Thing You Don't Know About "Peak Oil"
The Most Important Thing You Don't Know About "Peak Oil"

<snip>

For instance, a few days ago I referenced the article GlobalCorp because I felt Michael C. Ruppert did a fantastic job 'connecting the dots' of world/politcal events occurring over just the past few months. What he showed is that, regardless of whether Peak Oil has any reality to it or not, what is important now is that the powers of the world are absolutely steering the course of the planet by this star. As such, the events now destined to unfold over just the next year or so are acquiring a momentum of their own, setting us on an intractable course of global conflict and warfare. This is the reality, as I see it, of what is happening right now, regardless of when any theoretical "Peak Year" may have been reached.

Should the oil markets themselves begin to 'connect these dots', then all our lives are going to be impacted violently and immediately. The commodity traders for various interested firms live solely by anticipating conditions and events, not by debating them and verifying them. The old mantra is, you "buy the rumor, sell the news". This is the reason you'll never see "Peak Oil" covered by a respected media outlet. Because as soon as it is recognized that for all practical purposes the situation is already upon us, then a fast and viscious "resource grab" will be initiated. The price of oil in the markets will begin to rise dramatically. This will initiate a circular hedging / hording mentality in large end-users, governments, and multi-nationals. This will then have a myriad of devastating effects, but all average Joe Consumer is going to notice is that the price at the pump will experience a brief and dramatic blip upward, gas lines will form for a short time at the corner-stations, and then suddenly the corner gas-stations will go dry altogether...perhaps getting a few sporadic deliveries, but more likely simply for good. Gasoline will not be available to individual drivers, as precedence is given to heating oil, critical government and commercial uses, public transportation, transport of food and goods, etc. How the situation unfolds after that you can imagine just as well as I....

If this scenario sounds over-dramatic, keep in mind that what I'm talking about is a dawning recognition of something that many analysts have already come to realize: that the "oil grab" is in fact already on, that it's not a temporary 'bottleneck' or passing 'shock', and that the losers in this game will not survive. A global game of 'blind man's bluff' is underway, with all the players pleading ignorance of the issue for as long as possible so they can get their pieces in place...all the while anxiously watching for the first itchy-trigger finger that's going to set the whole thing off.

More...
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4dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #17
19. "The problem is that the world has no Plan B." Simmons is right.
worth repeating.. Another article to add to my collection..


"The problem is that the world has no Plan B." Simmons is right.

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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 12:40 PM
Response to Reply #17
24. Nice post, Canu. and I agree with you.
We have to realize that the US is steering the Energy policy, 100%. Everything they do is connected to this reality.

For the longest time, I couldn't figure out what on earth they were doing. .....remember Clinton, and how they pursued him, tried to get him impeached. Then, they barged their way in, on a fraudulent election. Next, they dismantled the many safeguards that had been set up to protect nations, including the US (like the Geneva convention, and so on).

On and on. I was very confused by it all, couldn't see the true motivations. Thought they were just criminals and thugs.

But when I started reading up on Peak Oil, suddenly everything made sense. Even if you don't believe me, just imagine for a moment that Peak Oil will happen.

Doesn't it fit perfectly with that they've done all along?

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Paintedlady Donating Member (115 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 08:52 PM
Response to Reply #24
50. That is exactly what happened to me!
Several months before the election I became obsessed (that is my daughters opinion). I had to know what all the lies and the war etc. was about. I spent 8 hours a day reading about everything, following links and wrecking my brain, then one day I came across the concept of Peak Oil and suddenly all the pieces of the puzzle fell in place.
It explains everything that is happening in the world, and ever since that light bulb day, I have been working hard to change my life to deal with it. Give me five to six more weeks and I'm ready.


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AmBlue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 09:57 PM
Response to Reply #50
53. What are you doing to get "ready"???
I've been thinking about this a lot.... Buy gold? Euros?? wheat?? seeds?
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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-23-05 01:40 AM
Response to Reply #50
59. Amazing. Painted, that's me you're describing.
I did the exact same thing. Although I didn't jump onto my obsession until after the stolen election. It was around 2002, when Bush started the run-up to the war in Iraq.

That's when my antennas started to come out of my head. I remember watching Bush on TV, as he was flailing around, with spit flying out of his mouth, swiping his fist in the air, acting like a complete lunatic.

I remember standing there, frozen in amazement. I thought to myself, "Oh my God!!! What's going on here?" I knew something was dreadfully wrong, but I didn't know what.

Nobody else seemed to feel there was anything wrong. I looked around the room. Everyone else had glazed eyes, just waved him away, were generally disgusted, "just get rid of the moron", they said.

Not me. After 3 years of relentless searching, I finally have some answers. They are: Oil. Peak Oil. Declining supplies. Wars. Worldwide instability. Brutal oil grabs. Possible worldwide depression, failing economies, starvation.

My last 3 years can be summed up in 1 word: oil.

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12345 Donating Member (267 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 11:29 AM
Response to Original message
18. For skeptics, I find this reference to Dick Cheney's 1999
speech to the London Institute of Petroleum to be the most convincing evidence of Peak Oil. http://www.peakoil.net//Publications/Cheney_PeakOil_FCD.pdf
That is, for those who won't believe the science behind the issue. It seems to point clearly to knowledge in the administration of the impending oil shortages. The next most convincing thing is this interview with Chris Skrebowski http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/379. Many articles about Peak Oil are so sensational as to be off-putting. In this interview, Skebrowski makes a convincing case for Peak Oil without talking about the end of the world. It does raise alarm bells, however, when one considers the apparent lack of preparation that governments are making given the forcasts.

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yurbud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 07:04 PM
Response to Reply #18
37. that Cheney speech nails it--great find.
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AlienGirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 11:46 AM
Response to Original message
20. Then the only cheap energy source left will be...
Us.

It was something terrifying I realized last night: the end of slavery in much of the industrialized world really only happened once machines were built that did the jobs for less money than the cost of slave upkeep.

With so many people on the planet, and so little oil left to run the machines, how much longer until slavery becomes profitable again? :scared: The bankruptcy bill seems likely to pave the way to some kind of indentured servitude...

Tucker
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Chemical Bill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 02:07 PM
Response to Reply #20
28. Slavery is right
Notice how the movement is afoot to make people in prison "pay their own way". The roadside cleanup crews of the past will be replacing good paying jobs soon. And how will Walmart survive without cheap oil?

Bill
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icymist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 11:52 PM
Response to Reply #20
55. Kind of like The Matrix only the machines don't rule....
Only those who can afford to run the remaining few machines would rule.
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masmdu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 12:10 PM
Response to Original message
21. With this new Technology "Fuel cost would become inconsequential"
Power will be cheap and clean ...Autos will be able to travel thousands of miles on a tank of water.

http://www.blacklightpower.com/pdf/BD_Motive.pdf

and

http://www.blacklightpower.com/
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SKKY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 01:01 PM
Response to Reply #21
26. As much as I want to believe you, and keep it in my pocket...
Edited on Thu Apr-21-05 01:24 PM by ALiberalSailor
I have to throw the "BS Flag" on this one. Unless something extraordinary has happened, and this company has slipped under the radar of everyone, everywhere, shouldn't "Black Light Power" turn up at least a few times on a Google News search? Nada, not 1 article, blip, company press release, etc. Nothing. A regular Google Search turns up plenty, but that's not my point. I find it hard to believe that, this has gone completely without notice. But don't get me wrong, I want to believe this. I soooooooooo want to believe this.
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punpirate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 08:32 PM
Response to Reply #26
48. I'm inclined to believe you...
... but perhaps for slightly different reasons. I've just read the patent and it's very curious. The process depends upon electrocatalytics acting on hydrogen to shrink its electron states to less than the ground state. It depends, therefore, upon a principle that is odd in the context of quantum physics--fractional orbital states. There have been observations of dark matter that would seem to justify the existence of such hydrogen atoms.

But, what's got me concerned is the more realistic side of this. The patent was issued in 1997--that means it's eight years old, so time's running out on exclusive rights. The justifying document is largely a text written by the guy starting the company, which was not published by a reputable university press.

Even if the chemistry is possible, from the description (I can't view the patent drawings on this computer for some reason), it's not going to be something that is likely to work reliably in a car anytime soon. It's likely to be, at best, useful for stationary generators, and then, not anytime soon. This looks and sounds like an enormously twitchy process that can fail at any number of points.

My best guess is that there are two current problems--it's not sufficiently exothermic to produce useful power and to power all the auxiliary energy inputs required of the process, and second, if it runs, it doesn't for very long and the process stops.

Cheers.
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left15 Donating Member (119 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 12:24 PM
Response to Original message
22. you folks seem to be over reacting.
Were not going to end up in the stone age, like some bad sci-fi movie.

There is technology available right now to cut our energy consumption in half. These include, higher effiency motors, turbins, chillers, better insulation, etc.

There are also alternative carbon based fuel sources, ethanol, Bio diesel, and Hydrogen.

The problem right now is that all of this technology is more expensive than drilling a hole in the ground and pumping out oil.

Yes energy prices will go up as we switch to other fuels, but it won't be a sudden, and it won't be earth shattering.

We have been through this before with other natural resources, like steel and copper. Over the last decade, the prices of both have risen 10 fold.

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wallwriter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 12:30 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. It's a specialty of the far left
At least we're not invoking Jesus.

Perhaps the crisis won't be as grave as the worst predictions. It would be nice, though, if some major governments, institutions and industries would acknowledge the problem. It would be nice if there were greater efforts toward alternative fuels and modes of transportation. Etc
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4dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 01:50 PM
Response to Reply #22
27. Really??
The problem right now is that all of this technology is more expensive than drilling a hole in the ground and pumping out oil.

At what price does this become feasable?? These are assumptions at best..

Yes energy prices will go up as we switch to other fuels, but it won't be a sudden, and it won't be earth shattering.

Other fuels?? Other fuels will replace the 80 MILLION barrels of oil we use on a daily basis, forcast to go to 120 MILLION barrels by 2030?? This is a dead wrong assumption, one that leads people to do nothing until its too late.. Show us and tell us WHAT OTHER FUEL will replace oil!!

We have been through this before with other natural resources, like steel and copper. Over the last decade, the prices of both have risen 10 fold

nothing here comes close to the magnatude that oil stortages will have on the economy..

I believe you need to do a little more research IMHO!!


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Chemical Bill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 02:17 PM
Response to Reply #22
30. I use biodiesel now...
Biodiesel gives 3.2 times the energy needed to produce it. We can produce much more per energy input, depending on the crops used. Ethanol is barely a break-even proposition using corn, we need to use crops better suited to ethanol production. Hydrogen production uses much more energy to produce than it returns. We are better off with electric cars than hydrogen cars. That must be why * loves hydrogen cars, they'll never replace oil.

Bill
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Gregorian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 02:28 PM
Response to Reply #30
31. Biodiesel is still combustion. It's not a solution, just a bridge.
For those who don't still think the earth is flat, and the holocaust never happened, there is global warming. There is an increase in the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere.
Hydrogen can be a good energy storeage medium. But we need to stop melting the icecaps. Actually, see my sig line. That's the real issue.
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Chemical Bill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 02:38 PM
Response to Reply #31
34. * loves hydrogen cars
Hydrogen production takes more energy than hydrogen stores. As I said, we'd be better off with electric cars than hydrogen cars. That must be why they are unavailable. I can use biodiesel right now, unlike hydrogen. And the greenhouse carbon dioxide in biodiesel was taken out of the atmosphere when we grew the crops, so it's essentially GHG neutral. BTW we don't have to invade Iowa either, which is a biodiesel advantage in my book.

Bill
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bullwinkle428 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 03:30 PM
Response to Reply #34
35. Which brings about the question...
"BTW we don't have to invade Iowa either"

So I don't necessarily have to become an insurgent?
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lyonn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-23-05 02:28 AM
Response to Reply #35
61. Very funny Bullwinkle
First we will surround you, take over Neb. and Kan. for instance, then we will have control over you. Kinda like Iran.
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lostinacause Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 09:38 PM
Response to Reply #31
52. Bio diesel creates an equilibrium.
Plants have to consume CO2 to grow and make Biodiesel. In the long term it creates equilibrium.
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4dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-22-05 06:00 AM
Response to Reply #30
58. What about alternatives to oil?
I don't think biodiesel will come close to replacing the 20 millions gallons a gay this country uses.. Not to mention, the conversion of 210 vehicles to run on biodiesel is not even feasalbe..

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/SecondPage.html

relying on corn for our future energy needs would devastate the
nation's food production. It takes 11 acres to grow enough corn to fuel
one automobile with ethanol for 10,000 miles, or about a year's driving,
Pimentel says. That's the amount of land needed to feed seven persons
for the same period of time.

And if we decided to power all of our automobiles with ethanol, we would
need to cover 97 percent of our land with corn, he adds.

Biodiesel is considerably better than ethanol, but with an EROEI of three, it still doesn't compare to oil, which has had an EROEI of about 30
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NickB79 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 07:43 PM
Response to Reply #22
42. It will take at least a decade to fully implement those technologies
Even if we fast-track building more wind turbines on the Plains, build next-generation nuclear power plants, grow more biodiesel, and produce more fuel-efficient vehicles, it will take a decade or two for them to be completed and the effects to completely filter into everyday life. In the meantime, we have maybe 5 yrs before we hit Peak Oil. Once we go over the peak, energy needed to manufacture all these things goes up dramatically. The higher the energy costs, the harder and slower it becomes to install all those new technologies. The slower we are to replace declining eneryg supplies, the more our economy fails, and so on. It produces a downward spiral.

Wind turbines are built using aluminum and steel that's mined from the ground with diesel-burning equipment, and refined and assembled using fossil fuels along the way. The same goes for nuclear reactors, and next-generation hybrid cars. All of these options would have worked, had we started building them a decade or two ago. Unfortunately, Reagan scraped Carter's vision of an energy-independent America, and here we sit.

I liken it to trying to board up your house for a hurricane, AFTER the hurricane has already started to hit your area. You could probably do it, but it will be much harder than if you had done it earlier.
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4dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 09:11 PM
Response to Reply #42
51. Good analogy
and lets not forget the most important thing here to discuss and that is the need for STRONG LEADERSHIP to get this nation and the rest of the world thinking along the same path..

Nothing will happen in this country until its too late and peak oil is not going to get us a second chance!! Its now or forget it!!
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suziedemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 07:54 PM
Response to Reply #22
44. I do think SOME people will be financially ruined.
IF the price of gas/electricity/heating oil/etc. goes through the roof - and the economy tanks - and people can't afford the gas for their SUVs - and they can't afford to replace them with hybrids - and they can't afford to heat or air condition their homes - and the price of real estate tanks so if they sell their McMansion they will take a big loss - and perhaps they lose their job because of the bad economy - and they can't declare bankruptcy - could be a problem.

These tidbits are from http://www.motherjones.com/news/exhibit/2005/03/exhibit.html

* Since 1950, the average new house has increased by 1,247 sq. ft. Meanwhile, the average household has shrunk by 1 person.
* The National Association of Home Builders’ “showcase home” for 2005 is 5,950 sq. ft. That’s 15% bigger than last year’s model.
* The Unabomber’s legal defense team cited the size of his shack—10’ x 12’—to buttress his insanity plea.
* 1 in 4 Americans want at least a 3-car garage.
* 88% of American commuters drive to work.
* 76% of those drivers commute alone.
* The number of Americans with commutes of longer than 90 minutes each way has increased 95% since 1990.
* Since 1982, 35 million acres—an area the equivalent of New York state—have been developed.
* More than 50% of exurban lots are 10 acres or larger. Exurban homes account for 80% of residential development since 1994.
* In 1950, 1 in 100 homes had 2.5 baths or more. Today, 1 in 2 do.
* 14 million households own 4 or more TVs.
* Americans spend more to power home audio and video equipment that is “off” but still plugged in than they do to power such devices while actually in use.
* Such “energy vampires” consume 5% of the nation’s electricity.
* Extreme Makeover: Home Edition recently gave a 6-bedroom, 7-bath, 7-television house to a family of 4.
* Americans with cable TV have 30 hours of home-improvement programming available to them each day.
* Sales of Sub-Zero and other “premium” and “superpremium” refrigerators have been rising by 15% a year.
* 1 in 5 new homes is larger than 3,000 sq. ft.—the size at which it becomes unmanageable to clean without hired help.
* The average cost of a luxury kitchen remodel is $57,000. That’s $10,000 more than it costs to build a typical Habitat for Humanity home.
* Suburban and urban kids use illegal drugs, have sex, fight, and steal at the same rates, but suburban kids are more likely to drink and smoke.
* 0.03% of U.S. homes are fueled by solar energy. 0.4% lack complete plumbing facilities.
* People who live in cities use half as much energy as suburbanites.
* If Americans bought only appliances with an“Energy Star” rating over the next 15 years, the reduction in greenhouse gases would equate to taking 17 million cars off the road.
* 1/3 of a home’s heating oil is used for hot water. Multiple-head shower systems can drain a 40-gallon tank in less than 4 minutes.
* The average new home requires 13,837 board feet of lumber and 19 tons of cement.
* Since 1976, federal housing assistance has been slashed by 48%.
* Last spring, the Bush administration proposed an additional $1 billion cut to the Section 8 housing subsidy.
* 87% of homeowners are white.
* Overall, blacks receive subprime loans 2.83 times more often than whites. The disparity increases when affluent blacks are compared to affluent whites.
* If it were a state, New York City would rank 51st in energy use per capita.
* Suburban white men weigh 10 pounds more than men in cities.
* Only 2.7% of San Francisco’s teachers, 5.7% of its cops, and 4.2% of its nurses can afford to buy a home there.
* 1 in 4 Californians are considering moving out of state to reduce their housing costs.
* Rush Limbaugh’s Palm Beach estate is worth 15 times the value of Bill and Hillary Clinton’s Chappaqua, N.Y., home.
* 7% of all homes are in gated communities.
* 7% of all homes are mobile homes.
* Since 2001, the number of Americans who have bought second homes has increased by 24%.






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slor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 12:49 PM
Response to Original message
25. Will read when I return home. n/t
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Truth__Seeker Donating Member (37 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 02:12 PM
Response to Original message
29. Jimmy Carter was on the right track...if we only stayed on that track...
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Chemical Bill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 02:29 PM
Response to Reply #29
32. I remember gasahol...(sigh) n/t
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DoYouEverWonder Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 02:35 PM
Response to Original message
33. The sky is falling, the sky is falling
All Bushco can do is ignore the problem because they want worldwide war. In the meantime, they are allowing people to convince themselves that it is the end of the world as we know it.

Instead of giving in to their self fulfilling prophecies, we should focus on solutions. There are a number of thing we can do to wean ourselves from fossil fuels. Don't let the oil men fool you. Soon solar, wind, hemp, biomass and just plan old conservation will be a lot cheaper and less lethal than using up the rest of the planet's oil reserves. There will be plenty of oil if we do the other things. It does not have to be an all or nothing situation. Don't give into the beast, because this is what the beast wants.

http://www.apolloalliance.org/

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suziedemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 07:58 PM
Response to Reply #33
45. I agree - there ARE steps WE can take to prepare for this.
The doom and gloom should motivate us to make our lives as energy efficient as possible.

There are three sites I like to go to regularly:

http://www.greencarcongress.com/

http://www.worldchanging.com/

http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/home
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byronius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 03:39 PM
Response to Original message
36. My father-in-law was high up at Chevron. We've had long
Edited on Thu Apr-21-05 03:40 PM by byronius
conversations about this, in which he says the most bizarre industry worldview things. Like: We'll always find new sources of oil, even if we have to take them by military force, and therefore we should not even try to find alternative energy sources. Oh, and oil sometimes comes out of the ground on its own -- so that means oil spills from tankers are just fine. I'm greatly paraphrasing, but I understand the way the other side views this. This is an intelligent, loving father, well-read and well-educated. I get along with him mostly -- until he wants to talk about cutting off all aid to blacks because they haven't 'done as well' as the immigrant asians, implying that they're lazy. When I remind him that most immigrant asians didn't start out here as property, and don't necessarily have an entire American subculture still devoted to making sure they can't vote or get an education, he just shrugs a little, as if it makes no difference. Love him, but he needs the old Watermelon Seed experience, I think.

However -- since the last Treasonous Fake Election, we don't discuss these things anymore at all, never, not gonna happen, go to hell. His side has declared Civil War. So be it. Voter Fraud Civil War. No more talking. Just action.
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suziedemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 08:07 PM
Response to Reply #36
46. That's funny - I had to come back to Indiana because of an ill parent.
And I can't talk to ANYONE here. Too bad. All my friends from high school, all my cousins, almost all of my co-workers - all Republican, Bush supporters. I used to be able to have civil disagreements with them. But after the last election - I simply can't talk to them at all anymore. I avoid all family functions - have stopped returning my old friends calls. I simply can't sit quietly with a serene smile while they bash Democrats and talk about how much they love Bush. It is sad - but I think something similar may have happened in 1930's Germany.
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ngGale Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-23-05 02:43 AM
Response to Reply #46
63. "Ditto" Suziedemocrat - if I didn't have the DU I'd...
lose my mind. I made it through them bashing Bill Clinton, but now it's really bad - too bad! And they still blame Bill for anything they can't explain.
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PATRICK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 07:20 PM
Response to Original message
38. One guy? Carefully chosen?
Picked for his ignorance of the world of finance for a very good reason no doubt. He knew everything else but that and being retired is not part of the rah-rah coverup councils recently held arguing on dates and amounts rather than the inevitable problems.

This also signals doubts about the information received from the hyping oil industry, fears, and need for predictors without concretely alarming everyone.

It also shows we cannot look to this group for any real help or understanding. It sounds like REGULATING a decline to prevent an economic crash- and their own collapse in the tsunami. I think this is the major reason for the seizure of civil governments and institutions around the globe. Or being sideswiped by other great crises.

If it isn't, it sure will be.
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icymist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 07:29 PM
Response to Original message
40. What about those cars that got huge millage by burning cleaner?
I understand that there is technology that exists where carburetors contain little gas processing plants (for lack of a better word) and the gas companies understand this and buy up all the patents.

Check out this like:
http://www.get113to138mpg.com/

Is this kind of stuff for real? Also, I'm listening to 710KIRO right now where someone is being interviewed by Dave Ross who claims to have driven a truck from Seattle to Portland with less than three gallons of gas.
http://www.kiro710.com/news.jsp
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lovuian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 07:38 PM
Response to Original message
41. When Oil fields get old the impurities get higher More Refining
I think the real key is the limited refinerys

as these oil wells get old they get impurities

The World hasn't built any new refineries except China

Peak Oil is being made worse by limited Refineries and when a refinery blows up like the BP plant in Houston that just makes things more difficult and it makes China look brilliant becasue they are getting ready for it and we are not!!!
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ananda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 07:47 PM
Response to Reply #41
43. yeah..
I think the world will be out of oil within three years. Then.. yikes.

Sue
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Horse with no Name Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 08:30 PM
Response to Original message
47. One industry that will be hit hard is medicine
Do you realize the amount of plastics that they use in a day?
Almost everything is plastic and almost everything is disposable.
I wonder if we will go back to using glass IV bottles, needles we use more than once, multi dose bottles of medication, etc.
Very scary for patient care in our age of MRSA, VRE, and other superbugs.
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NuttyFluffers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 11:57 PM
Response to Reply #47
56. i'm thinking long distance transport. aviation and land and sea shipping
when fuel costs gut the profits in those areas beyond any capacity to continue we are going to be in serious dire straights. it means lack of escape at the absolute worst, and agonizing economic implosion at best. *sigh* gonna be a funny day when our nuke subs and carriers become critical resource ferries for our nation.
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Horse with no Name Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-22-05 02:16 AM
Response to Reply #56
57. absolutely correct
I am planning on a major cross country move next year. I am starting to think it would perhaps be in my best interests to do it this summer while I can still afford gas in a U-Haul.
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Pooka Fey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 08:47 PM
Response to Original message
49. Kicked and Nominated.
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rucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-05 11:07 PM
Response to Original message
54. Better take what you can...
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enid602 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-23-05 02:17 AM
Response to Original message
60. energy
I took the bus to work this week, just to see if it's doable. 1 and 1/4 hrs each way vs the 15 minutes I normally commute on the freeway. Not bad for Phoenix. At least I can rest assured knowing I have a backup plan.
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