leveymg,
I agree with you about the game of chicken, but I remember reading in Haaretz and other articles from respected news sources that Putin assured Israel that Russia would not eventually sell anti-aircraft missiles to Syria. As we now know, Putin did not blink.
However, I agree, the situation has escalated with the US authorizing the sale of bunker busters to Israel.
It all might become tragically interesting. I really believe that the US played a role to finalize the pull out of Syria from Lebanon. It wanted to isolate Syria as a bad guy in the region, but surprisingly Syria did not take the bait, and it complied with hardly a complaint. Soon after, Iran/Syria make a joint statement about each one coming to the defense of the other if attacked.
Next, Russia authorizes nuclear material to be shipped within 60 days to Iran. You also have the Ukrainian scandal unfolding:
WASHINGTON - Recent stories about the alleged sale of 12 former Soviet nuclear-capable unarmed air-launched cruise missiles (ALCM) to Iran and China - six to each nation - by Ukraine advance a long unfolding slow-motion scandal, but still leave many questions unanswered.
... Reportedly, Sarfraz Haider, an Australian businessman of Afghan-Iranian origin, said to be part of the arms trafficking gang, was killed, according to his family and a Ukrainian police report. He lived in Canberra and Sydney before moving to London and then Cyprus in 2000.
His family originally believed his death in Cyprus last year was the result of a motorbike accident. But after an autopsy on Haider's body, the family now believes he was murdered. His neck had been broken and his aorta split, and there were signs of a struggle. The family claims Iranian agents paid Cypriot police to eliminate Haider because he knew too much.
It still is not clear exactly what kind of missiles were sold to Iran and China. Press reports say it was the Kh-55 Granat. But according to GlobalSecurity.org there are actually three versions; the Kh-55, Kh-55-OK and the Kh-55SM.
Production of the stretched-range version, the Kh-55SM, began in 1986. This was fielded in the 1990s. The modification provided for increased range, giving it an estimated reach of 3,000 kilometers.
Ukraine's proliferation skeletonsI mention the above, because I question what the US intelligence may know about Iranian and Syrian military capabilities.
The geostrategic map now looks like this. The US is entrenched in Iraq with Iran and Syria, now allies with each other, to the east and west of Iraq's borders. The US counters with US bases to the north of Iran in Azerbaijan, and in another 30 to 60 days the delivery of Russian nuclear material to Iran. What role will Saudi Arabia play, as it has its own small insurgency occasionally causing havoc inside Saudi Arabia. Does Saudi Arabia sit on the sidelines, if and when Iran is strategically bombed?
As for the Bush Administration, they can't convince anyone to do anything, including Bush's dog Barney to heel. Sheesh, even if Bush came out strong against Sharon, Sharon wouldn't listen. Sharon hasn't yet, as he constantly leaves Bush with egg on his face over the alleged Road Map.
Suggestion? We all pray and watch Dr. Strangelove.