STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 3 May

CONCERNING RELATIONSHIPS

With European markets being closed today in observance of May Day celebrations, markets are expected to be thin and trading volumes light. As this piece is being written on Sunday evening for publication for Monday’s wrap up, I can report that the dollar is firming modestly against the currencies with the precious metals complex showing softness, with gold futures off 1.70 and silver up .01 at the time of writing. Much has been written, over the course of time, concerning long running relationships between commodities in general and specific commodities or financial products in particular. These long held relationships warrant frequent repeating and close monitoring in uncertain times, with breaks from traditional ranges often serving as harbingers of larger impending moves in the products or commodities in question.

Dollar Vs. Gold

One of the most often reported of these relationships is the observable inverse relationship between the value of the dollar and gold. This relationship is often cited in the stalwart technical work of Mr. Jim Sinclair and most recently a comprehensive treatise was composed by Mr. Nick Barisheff right here at Financial Sense. It is useful to take note that the dollar and precious metals are generally viewed as the mirror image of each other – meaning the greenback usually advances when gold and silver sell off and visa versa. This relationship between the precious metals and the dollar has a long history dating back to the early 1970s when President Nixon closed the gold window taking us off the gold standard.

-cut-

Government Vs Corporate Bonds

Just like all funds that trade on recognized exchanges are not created alike, all rated bonds are generally known by how credit rating agencies like Standard & Poor's or Moody’s Investor’s Service view their creditworthiness. These agencies classify debt issues, usually by letters A, B or C according to their own ongoing due diligence regarding the financial position of the issuer.

-cut-

Of late, companies such as Fannie Mae and General Motors have been in the news with much attention focused on their bond ratings and lots of discussion as to whether or not GM's credit rating may be downgraded to ‘junk’ status. This becomes relevant due to the fact that GM is an extremely large issuer of debt through its GMAC finance arm to the tune of 200 – 300 billion in aggregate. A downgrade to junk status could trigger large amounts of selling of GM bonds. This could have seriously negative systemic repercussions in the financial markets should a too rapid divestiture occur.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 84.53 Change +0.04 (+0.05%)

Dollar hits 2-week high against euro

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=8368569

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar hit a two-week high against the euro on Tuesday, advancing as traders bet the United States will keep steadily raising interest rates to fight inflation despite signs of slower U.S. economic growth.

Analysts reckon the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates for an eighth consecutive time by 25 basis points to 3.0 percent but the market focus will be on the accompanying statement for clues on the future path of interest rates.

"I think the Fed will be pretty cagey. In the past six weeks we've had evidence that inflation is picking up a little and evidence that economic activity has decelerated a little so it's even more reason for them to be cautious," said Ian Gunner, head of foreign exchange research at Mellon Bank.

Weak U.S. economic data, starting with slower-than-expected first-quarter gross domestic product growth last week, had raised some concerns the U.S. central bank may slow down the pace of rate rises.

The Fed is likely to announce a rate decision at about 1815 GMT. Higher U.S. rates would make short-dated U.S. assets more attractive to foreign investors.

...more...

FOMC Outlook– Judgment Day For the Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=934&Itemid=39

US Dollar

The US dollar is extending last week's rally as we close in on tomorrow's FOMC rate decision. We have been combing the various bank research reports that we have access to and we see one very interesting and clear trend, which is that bank analysts across the board have been pretty hush about their views in their weekly reports for this upcoming meeting. Most economists instead have chosen to focus on Chinese revaluation, which is important in its own right, but not urgent enough that it warrants so much coverage that projections for the Fed meeting should completely be ignored. Usually by now, we are accustomed to a barrage of FOMC outlook reports with strong views about what the Fed may do. This time around though, the murkiness and simply lack of commentary only indicates one thing - that is there isn't a consensus view on the Fed's actions. There is no doubt that the Federal Reserve will be granting the markets another quarter point rate hike, but the Fed's words and not their amount of tightening will be the main focus. Given that recent economic data has been mixed, the market's expectations are definitely tilted to the downside. According to David Altig, one of our favorite economists, expectations for tightening have changed since Friday's economic releases. Prior to Friday's data, options for Fed Fund futures had predicted 100bp of tightening over the next 4 FOMC meetings. Following Friday's data releases, expectations have shifted to a possible pause in either August or September. Fed watcher John Berry of Bloomberg is also calling for a retention of the phrase "measured." The Fed knows that the removal of the phrase would be perceived as the Fed taking a more aggressive stance on policy, which current circumstances do not necessary warrant. If the Fed leaves their statement unchanged, the dollar should have a slightly bearish to neutral reaction while the removal of the phrase would be a bullish signal for the dollar. Meanwhile it should not surprise us that today's US economic data was also mixed, with manufacturing sector ISM falling short of expectations and construction spending rising by more than expected.

...more...

Yen Speculative Shorts fell by 40 percent as traders began shifting

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=924&Itemid=39

US Dollar Index: Implied dollar positioning for the week ending April 26, while remaining dollar positive, fell by 60 percent following the failure by the dollar index to break above 85.00. During the previous week, traders increased their bets on the Australian dollar by 49 percent, reduced their short Yen exposure by 40 percent and upped their bets against the Canadian dollar by 50 percent.

<snipping charts>

EUR: For the week ending April 26, the net positioning in the euro remained positive with only 802 contracts being liquidated. However open interest rose by a staggering 14,449 contracts, as traders began shifting their positioning following the failure by the euro to hold the 1.3100 figure.

<snip>

JPY: Yen bearishness began to subside as traders started to reposition themselves with net shorts decreasing by massive 22,195 contracts following a sharp move by the yen against the dollar. The Japanese yen continues to maintain the highest open interest amongst the majors at 138,788 contracts outstanding, with total open interest declining by 4,390 contracts as traders locked in some of their gains.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1D1CD788%2D25F4%2D491A%2D9E4D%2D1DC05CAA2C91%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar softened against the euro Tuesday morning as players in the currency market positioned themselves for an afternoon Federal Open Market Committee decision on interest rates.

The euro rose 0.2% to $1.2882. However, the dollar was up 0.2% at 105.16 yen, and sterling down 0.2% at $1.8899.

The Fed is widely expected to adopt another quarter-percentage-point increase in the federal funds rate, which would put the benchmark rate at 3%.

The currency market appeared to be bidding the euro higher in advance of the rate announcement "to set themselves up for a little kneejerk reaction in the other direction after the news," said Bill Hoerter, a senior foreign exchange dealer with Alaron Fx.

...more...

and a peek

Last trade 84.43 Change -0.06 (-0.07%)

Settle 84.49 Settle Time 23:35

Open 84.65 Previous Close 84.49

High 84.69 Low 84.33

Last tick: 2005-05-03 10:46:20 ET
30-min delayed quote.

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/business/11547487.htm

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

ABILENE, Kan. - Duckwall-ALCO Stores Inc. has cut 46 corporate jobs as part of a restructuring, the company announced Monday.

"Our organization simply had too many layers of management," president and chief executive officer Bruce Dale said. "We need a much leaner, more flexible organization if we're going to compete aggressively in our market category."

The cuts are expected to save $2.2 million, the company said.

The company announced in March that it would close 20 underperforming stores to liquidate about $6.5 million in inventory.

...more...

11:36am 05/03/05 CHRYSLER GROUP U.S. APRIL SALES UP 9% TO 206,546

11:36am 05/03/05 MERCEDES-BENZ U.S. APRIL SALES UP 2% TO 18,805

11:34am 05/03/05 DAIMLERCHRYSLER U.S. APRIL SALES UP 9%

11:34am 05/03/05 DAIMLERCHRYSLER U.S. APRIL SALES OF 225,351

DaimlerChrysler April U.S. sales up 9%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38475.4850237963-834983360&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- DaimlerChrysler (DCX) on Tuesday reported a 9% rise in April U.S. sales to 225,351 vehicles. Chrysler, which consists of Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge brands, sold 206,546 vehicles, a 9% increase. The luxury Mercedes-Benz division turned in its best April ever with a 2% gain to 18,805 vehicles.

Well, lookie there! Luxury cars gained! Who would have guessed! :sarcasm:

(added link on edit)

Ford Motor April U.S. sales off 2%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38475.5073673264-834984535&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor (F) on Tuesday posted a 2% decline in April U.S. sales to 281,292 vehicles despite an 11% surge in car sales. Truck sales slipped 2% as traditional sports utility vehicles continued to fall out of favor. Car sales were boosted by higher sales of Ford's Chicago product lineup, which includes the Ford Five Hundred and Mercury Montego, as well as the popular Ford Mustang. The F-Series bucked the downtrend on the truck side, adding 2% to 71,367 vehicles to maintain its position as the best selling vehicle in the U.S.

12:09pm 05/03/05 FORD U.S. APRIL JAGUAR SALES DOWN 30.1%

12:08pm 05/03/05 FORD U.S. LAND ROVER APRIL SALES RISE 24.3%

12:09pm 05/03/05 FORD U.S. APRIL MERCURY SALES UP 11.3%

12:07pm 05/03/05 FORD APRIL U.S. CAR SALES UNCHANGED OVER LAST YEAR

12:08pm 05/03/05 FORD APRIL U.S. TRUCK SALES DOWN 2.4%

12:06pm 05/03/05 CORRECT: FORD MOTOR U.S. APRIL SALES FALL 1.5%

12:07pm 05/03/05 FORD BRAND U.S. APRIL SALES DOWN 2.5%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38475.5129557176-834984878&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Porsche Cars North America (DE:693773) on Tuesday posted an 8% decline in April U.S. sales to 3,065 vehicles with Cayenne, the German carmaker's sports utility lineup, turning in a 38% retreat to 1,071 units sold. On a positive note, Boxster sales almost doubled to 946 cars.

12:16pm 05/03/05 PORSCHE CARS N AMERICA U.S APRIL SALES FALL 8% TO 3,065

12:31pm 05/03/05 MAZDA APRIL U.S. SALES UP 2.6%

12:32pm 05/03/05 MAZDA APRIL U.S. SALES 86,268 UNITS

12:48pm 05/03/05 SUBARU OF AMERICA APRIL U.S. SALES RISE 36%

What's up with that?

2:00pm 05/03/05 CORRECT: SUBARU OF AMERICA APRIL U.S. SALES RISE 23%

If I see any newsblurbs regarding their sales, I'll post it :)

12:56pm 05/03/05 VOLVO APRIL U.S. SALES DOWN 0.6% TO 10,743

1:07pm 05/03/05 TOYOTA U.S. APRIL LEXUS SALES RISE 6.6% TO 26,064 UNITS

1:07pm 05/03/05 TOYOTA BRAND APRIL U.S. SALES RISE 23.7% TO 184,402

1:06pm 05/03/05 TOYOTA MOTOR APRIL U.S. SALES UP 21.3% TO 210,466

(added more info on edit)

1:09pm 05/03/05 AUDI U.S. APRIL SALES EDGE HIGHER TO 7,202 FROM 7,137

1:17pm 05/03/05 NISSAN BRAND U.S. APRIL SALES UP 29.5% TO 79,982 UNITS

1:17pm 05/03/05 NISSAN MOTORS U.S. APRIL SALES UP 27% TO 91,621

1:44pm 05/03/05 HYUNDAI MOTOR AMERICA U.S. APRIL SALES UP 16.9%

1:44pm 05/03/05 HYUNDAI MOTOR AMERICA U.S. APRIL SALES 40,958 UNITS

General Motors April U.S. sales fall 7.4%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38475.5862873264-834988209&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Motors (GM) on Tuesday posted a 7.4% decline, adjusted for an extra selling day this year, in April U.S. sales to 385,939 vehicles. GM truck sales, with waning demand for models like the Tahoe and Trailblazer, fell 17% to 215,321, while car sales managed to gain 7.5% on demand for the Chevy Cobalt, Pontiac G6 and Buick LaCrosse. The Cadillac division turned in a 19% surge, driven by demand for its luxury cars like the STS.

1:52pm 05/03/05 GM U.S. APRIL TRUCK SALES DOWN 17%

1:48pm 05/03/05 GENERAL MOTORS U.S. APRIL SALES 385,939 UNITS

1:48pm 05/03/05 GENERAL MOTORS U.S. APRIL SALES DOWN 7%

(added link on edit)

2:09pm 05/03/05 HONDA U.S. APRIL SALES UP 13.6% TO 135,597 UNITS

3:21pm 05/03/05 SUZUKI APRIL SALES RISE 11% TO 8,084 UNITS

3:26pm 05/03/05 KIA APRIL U.S. SALES UP 15.9% TO 27,158 UNITS

3:32pm 05/03/05 BMW BRAND U.S. APRIL SALES FALL 10% TO 21,072

3:32pm 05/03/05 BMW GROUP U.S. APRIL SALES FALL 5% TO 25,382

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newyork/ny-bc-ny--tycotrial0503may03,0,6684948.story?coll=ny-region-apnewyork

excerpt:

The prosecutor repeatedly brought up references to Kozlowski's wife, saying her clothing was at the Manhattan apartment, where an $18 million renovation repaired light fixtures and damaged walls and floors before the decorating began.

Kozlowski said his wife spent only two nights in the apartment and he used it only as a hotel room.

"Her clothing might have been there, but she wasn't," he said.

<snip>

Kozlowski and Swartz are accused of stealing $170 million by hiding unauthorized bonuses and secretly forgiving loans to themselves and pocketing $430 million more by pumping up Tyco stock with lies about the state of the company's finances.

...more...

a bit of trouble with the jury.

"It's just like buying a car _ a very, very expensive car," he said, prompting one juror to snicker.

If they are laughing at him on the stand, it doesn't sound as if he has a leg to stand on! Oh yeah, I would love to see him go to jail and eat bad food for a very long time!
:bounce:

can find him something nice in stripes?

but I really hope he gets those ugly heavy orange jumpsuits and sleeps on sheets with 10 thread count sheets with itchy wool blankets! Oh, and lots of grits and slop food!

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newyork/ny-bc-ny--gm-investigation0502may02,0,3225240.story?coll=ny-region-apnewyork

WASHINGTON -- The government has opened an investigation of more than 1.2 million General Motors Corp. pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles in 21 states amid questions about the vehicles' antilock brakes.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said Monday that stopping distances may increase when the brakes are applied at speeds of under 10 mph because of the build up of corrosion.

<snip>

The investigation involves 1.27 million GM trucks and SUVs from the 1999-2002 model years in the following states: Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Wisconsin, West Virginia. It also covers the District of Columbia.

The vehicles include the GMC Sierra, GMC Tahoe, GMC Yukon Denali, GMC Yukon XL, GMC Yukon XL Denali; Chevrolet Avalanche, Chevrolet Silverado, Chevrolet Suburban; Cadillac Escalade, and Cadillac EXT.

GM, the world's largest automaker, recalled about 150,000 pickups in eastern Canada in November 2004 from the same model years because of the condition in the antilock brakes.

...more...

Wow! Last week's recall was because of faulty seatbelts - I would think that the brake problem would have been put ahead of that. I hope that when those seatbelt recalls are checked out, they check the brakes too.

... but the timing of these things mostly follows a pattern: a complaint is filed with NHTSA by a customer or an acknowledgement of defect by the maker, NHTSA sends a notice to the maker asking for a detailed response, then there's some negotiation about whether the maker acknowledges a defect and NHTSA prepares an engineering analysis based on its regulations and if the maker and NHTSA agree on the terms of how the defect is to be repaired, then NHTSA issues a formal notice and the maker follows up with recall instructions to its customers. The issuance of that notice is only made once all those details are clarified. Who knows? The brake issue may have surfaced much earlier, but took longer to resolve.

I've had to do several of these in my last job.

http://www.newsday.com/business/nationworld/wire/sns-ap-disney-india,0,4191346.story?coll=sns-ap-business-headlines

excerpt:

Disney Chief Executive Michael Eisner and Chief Operating Officer Robert Iger, who has been picked to replace Eisner, visited India last week and met with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the company said. The executives were in India "to explore and discuss future opportunities for Disney in the burgeoning market of India," the company said.

Disney will open its latest park in Hong Kong on Sept. 12 and is believed to be considering a park in Shanghai. Robert Iger, the company's CEO-elect, has said international expansion is one of his key priorities in coming years.

...more at link...

:donut: Having traveled through India, the thought of an Indian Disneyland will have me laughing all day long, talk about comic potential.....just negotiating a bathroom is thrilling and an auto rickshaw ride is a white knuckle experience... Happy hunting, and watch out for the bears.

http://www.newsday.com/business/nationworld/wire/sns-ap-gasoline-prices,0,818026.story?coll=sns-ap-business-headlines

WASHINGTON -- The retail price of gasoline fell by one-tenth of a cent last week to average $2.24 a gallon nationwide, the Energy Department reported Monday.

The weekly government survey said the average price nationwide of regular-grade gasoline was $2.235, or 39.1 cents a gallon higher than the same time a year ago.

Pump prices were highest on the West Coast, averaging $2.513 a gallon, and cheapest on the Gulf Coast, where motorists paid on average $2.133 a gallon. In the Midwest, gas averages $2.156 per gallon.

One of the key factors underpinning today's price of gasoline is the high cost of oil -- the result of strong demand, tight global supplies and geopolitical uncertainties.

...more...

Gosh, I hope those refiners don't go broke on that price drop. :sarcasm:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8A75381C%2D40CD%2D428B%2D9FDA%2D9340574DFC1D%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc. said Tuesday its first quarter net income fell 70% from year ago levels after the company accounted for restructuring costs and set aside money to deal with liabilities from several regulatory issues.

The insurance brokerage firm (MMC: news, chart, profile) reported first-quarter net income of $134 million, or 25 cents a share, down 70% from $446 million, or 83 cents a share, in the year-ago period.

Excluding about $225 million in total special items, earnings were 52 cents a share.

Revenue was $3.18 billion, down slightly from $3.2 billion last year.

...more...

Isn't Marsh and McLennan run by Greenberg's sons?

10/15/2004

Marsh & McLennan accused of price fixing, collusion

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/insurance/2004-10-15-spitzer-insurance_x.htm

NEW YORK — The nation's biggest insurers are mired in a brewing scandal that many executives fear could shake the industry to its core.

After months of complaints from industry watchdogs, New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer launched the first salvo against alleged conflicts of interest Thursday, charging the insurance brokerage arm of Marsh & McLennan (MMC) with price fixing and collusion.

A damning civil suit accuses Marsh of steering clients to favored insurers and working with major insurers to rig the bidding process for property-casualty insurance coverage. The lawsuit says the victims ranged from large companies to school districts to individuals.

<snip>

Some industry analysts were quick to point out a family connection to Spitzer's probe. Business legend Maurice "Hank" Greenberg runs AIG, while his sons Jeff and Evan are CEOs at Marsh & McLennan and ACE, respectively. Spitzer said he has no evidence of any family ties to the scandal.

...more...

Seems like some family values are at work in the insurance industry.

Mike Cherkasky is running it now and is in the process of turning it around.

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/business/article/0,1299,DRMN_4_3746807,00.html

snip>

"The twentysomething generation, more than any other generation, is going to be left to fend for itself," says Bill Slater, the St. Louis-based vice president of retirement and savings plans for the MetLife insurance company.

A recent survey of MetLife clients and employers found that 40 percent of workers ages 21 to 30 had not begun to save for retirement - and many young adults have little clue how to even begin doing so.

snip>

Growing up in the comfort of more prosperous times has made the adjustment that much more difficult for this generation of twentysomethings, one expert says.

"Through high school, the stock market was doing great; unemployment was low," says Catherine Williams, the Chicago-based vice president of financial literacy for Money Management International, a consumer credit counseling service. That caused many young people to have high expectations about their own financial futures.

One example of the financial pinch: Student loan balances for the average college graduate were $18,900 in 2002, more than double the amount a decade earlier, even when adjusted for inflation, according to researchers at Demos, a nonpartisan public policy group. Their analysis of the most recent Federal Reserve data available also found that average credit card debt for adults age 24 to 34 was $4,088 in 2001, an increase of 55 percent since 1992.

more...

up 8-12% every year(public state school's) that *'sh has slept in the white house.
not to mention that pell grants have been slashed for students.

As the article points out, they grew up in some pretty prosperous times, many with no first hand knowledge or experience of harder economic times. I have many 20-something acquaintances that were raised to have that "instant gratification" mentality, fostered by their parents or peers in one way or another.

(Putting on my old curmudgeon hat)...back when I was growing up, teens and young adults having credit cards (much less their parents) was nearly unheard of. If you wanted something (other than a home, and in later years a car) you saved up for it. You made a few short-term "sacrifices" to be able to pay cash for what you wanted.

Of course, back then you could save - you didn't have to be as concerned about saving for retirement - there were good "cradle to grave" jobs, with good pension promises and benefits. Your long-term future was secure. My parent's generation made sacrifices and saved to try and give their kids a better life than they had. My generation either did the same, or went into debt to do the same - but having been in more prosperous economic times, we had a much better chance to either save or pay-off that debt

The pensions have since been "robbed" (thanks Ray-gun), Social Security has been looted, and we are pretty much all screwed for the future. The 20-somethings more so than any other current generation. The Ray-gun years set the stage for screwing the working class to keep the shareholders happy. Now that many in the working class have joined the ranks of shareholders, it's time to get screwed again to keep the CEOs and elite happy.

Sucks not being the big fish in the pond.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/03/business/03econ.html?

snip>

"There's been a slowdown in demand that's caused inventories to build up more than companies wanted," said Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez in New York, "so companies cut back on orders." Unless spending by business picks up, he said, "it's hard to make a case for a real strong second half."

The supply institute, based in Tempe, Ariz., surveys more than 400 companies in 20 industries, including clothing, printing, transportation, furniture and plastics.

The group's new orders gauge, which makes up about a third of the total, fell to 53.7 from 57.1 in March. The inventories index declined to 47.9 from 54.1, as companies started paring stockpiles built up last quarter.

snip>

Inventories, which rose the most in almost five years last quarter, may restrain factory demand in coming months, economists said. Companies increased inventories at an $80.2 billion annual pace compared with a $47.2 billion pace in the fourth quarter of 2004, a report last week showed.

"The trend is definitely toward a slower pace of growth," said Norbert Ore, chairman of the supply institute's manufacturing committee.

more...

stating anything over 50 means expansion. Seeing what that means in actual dollar amounts is rather chilling.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7713133/

SEATTLE - Microsoft Corp. Chairman Bill Gates said Monday that he regretted ever offering stock options to employees as part of the software giant’s compensation package.

“We probably never should have used stock options,” Gates told a conference of business journalists meeting in Seattle. (MSNBC is a joint venture of Microsoft and NBC.)

“I actually regret we ever used them,” he said. “The approach we have now is just a better approach.”

snip>

Gates, speaking to the Society of American Business Editors and Writers, did not specify exactly why he thought stock options had been a mistake, but he pointed to their abandonment as an example of how the company has become more sophisticated as it has grown larger.

Billionaire buddies
Gates recently joined the board of directors of Berkshire Hathaway, whose chairman, Gates’ good friend Warren Buffett, long complained about accounting rules that allowed companies to grant stock options but not count them as an expense.

more...

Considering changes like the Paris Hilton tax (inheritance), the increasing gap between management and worker pay, IRS tax code changes favoring the wealthy, the increasing stratification of wealth in this country.....the middle class is rapidly disappearing in this country. We will be a nation of WalMart's or Neiman's,

be those "lucky stiffs" making a whole (up to) 25K a year that will be able to afford the "luxury" of shopping at Wal-Mart! At least they'll be protected from the ravages of BeelzeBush's SS plan.

Me, I'm brushin' up on my dumpster diving skills.

They are the ones who will benefit directly from it all. I am a vendor with Neiman Marcus, and when visiting the stores in Texas, San Diego or Bal Harbour, I would sell to the "Cream" of the S. American aristocracy, in town for their bi-weekly shopping excursions, and think about the rest of the population back in Caracas, or Mexico City, living in poverty, without hope really. That I feel is the vision Bush has for America. America will be the elites playground and the rest of us will be there waiting for the crumbs they (hopefully) drop.

nice technique there on the dumpster dive!

perfecting that technique for a while now. Gotta balance on just the right part of my mid-section to avoid the head-first landing.
This allows me to dive independently. I used to require a partner. :hi:

and it is coming true in my lifetime. One of the things that make the US so vibrant and stable IS the middle class. This is the spawning ground for ideas that generate business and wealth. Middle class values education, health care, social/cultural stability and invest time and money to the raising of their children. They know enough to sacrifice for the betterment of their children. They are the ones that make sure that their children have the tools to do better...the children of the wealthy are trust fund babies for the most part and do not have to earn their keep and the children of the poor have less opportunity.
The poor have little time or money for enrichment due to economic pressures and the wealthy palm their children off on nannies. As a school nurse in a diverse population, my experiences are that the children of the poor and of the wealthy share many of the same emotional problems.
Once the middle class goes in this country, you can kiss this experiment in democracy good bye. Wages will plummet, the tax base errodes, the infrastructure crumbles, but the good news????? We can finally compete for those jobs that are now going to 3rd world countries 'cause WE'LL BE A THIRD WORLD COUNTRY.:party: :eyes:

sure they said the rest of the world would be brought up to our standard, :) LOL more like we will be brought down to their standard.

Work has picked up the pace a few notches as there is a small, but significant, show opening on Tuesday. I have been absent from DU while making display pieces for some new marble statues.

Ozy :hi:

every day.

That would be the perfect logo for the new club. I'd have to change that "recycling happens" line though.

Something more like, a sig line graphic I've seen at DU (sorry, I can't remember the poster's name)

BU SH
LL IT
HAPPENS

Thanks for the greet and the hilarious pics! I needed that!
I am lurking here every morning and a HEUGE :thumbsup: To you all for making the Stock Market Watch a must read!

sign me up for one of them tees when they're ready! can I get mine with some mustard on it, with the fish smell?

I resided for a while in Cloudcroft New Mexico. I addition to scenic beauty of the surrounding national forest---there was some interesting wildlife. All the dumpsters are hinged to be bear proof-because to a bear, a dumpster is a boxed lunch. Well, some kids were dumpster diving for aluminum cans. With a leg up from some friends, the kid dove in. I cannot imagine who was more suprised, the adolescent, or the adolescent black bear cub, but they both exited the dump at the same time from different directions. (Thus my admonition to always watch for the bears).
I love the DD logo. I want a shirt or patch...Does it qualify me for the President's fitness award?????

for the latest President's fitness award if you can make it to the rim on the first hop, without doing a head-first.

It takes speed, balance and agility - but with pratice it can be mastered and earn you'll a Pretzelent's fit-to-be-tied award.

Heck, if you're that fast, co-ordinated and agile, they'd have to tie you up and lock you up. You'd pose a threat to the Pretzelent and National Security.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B3D2ACEF9-9721-4A43-88B4-E7FBCDE61EDF%7D&siteid=google

excerpt:

Call it the "perfect storm." Anything that could go wrong did so. That's why the economy did not live up to most forecasters' expectations for the first quarter.

There was a change in the tax law that affected business outlays for capital goods. In addition, interest rates and the cost of energy went up, while the stock market and consumer confidence fell.

GDP growth last quarter was the slowest in two years. What's more, actual sales to final consumers grew by the smallest pace in nine quarters. This left most companies with large stockpiles of unsold goods.

To compound matters, the business sector, itself, contributed to the slowdown. Business spending on new plants and equipment rose at a 5% clip, compared with the 14.5% pace of the previous quarter.

<snip>

But output will also slow for another reason: excess inventories.

...more...

BeelzeBush's one-time tax incentive to get the election year numbers "lookin' good".

The reason for this sharp slowdown in capital goods expenditures is not hard to find. Last year, many firms were able to get a tax break on equipment -- provided that it was purchased before the end of 2004.

This break, in the form of accelerated depreciation of new equipment, made it worth ordering ahead of schedule. As a result, spending that was scheduled for 2005 was brought forward into 2004.

And what price will we pay next year for this year's earning pumping "Job Destruction Act" and its one-time tax incentive for repatriated funds?

and now companies that laid out that $$, helping bush's numbers look better, are stuck with having "geared up" for an expansion that ain't gonna happen.

:rofl: Do they think the republicans care???? Nope!

:kick:

last year. We figured it would have a similar effect as the Y2K scare did in the IT industry. Everyone moved up their upgrade purchases "just in case" they would have hardware/software problems when 2000 rolled in. In 2000, there was no "market" - everyone already made their purchases. Ahhhh, but the money we rolled in those few years prior to 2000 - those were the days!!! Let the good times roll! :party:

briefing.com

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.5. While futures indications still point to a lower open for the cash market, it is likely the indices will remain in a narrow trading range ahead of the Fed meeting at 2:15 ET... However, the market could arguably gyrate wildly shortly after the release before settling on an interpretation of the accompanying policy statement

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Cash market still poised to start the day on a lower note as the futures market retains a negative bias... Meanwhile, oil prices have relinquished some of yesterday's 2.4% rally, but a pull back to $50.49/bbl (-$0.43) has hardly been enough to incite much early buying interest amid a mixed batch of quarterly reports and ahead of the Fed's latest decision

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.5. Still shaping up to be a lower open for the indices as investors sift through another round of earnings reports... Last night, EDS posted its second straight quarterly profit, beating analysts' Q1 forecasts by $0.04, while the majority of S&P companies reporting this morning have also posted better than expected earnings... However, downside FY05 guidance from the likes of Tyco (TYC) and Masco (MAS) have so far added to the nervousness ahead of the FOMC policy announcement

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a lower open for the cash market as investors await the Fed's latest decision on monetary tightening, which is widely expected to be a 1/4% interest rate hike to 3.0% (2:15 ET)...

ino.com

The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1428.50. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near- term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1446.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes last month's decline, weekly support crossing at 1387.77 is the next downside target. The June NASDAQ 100 was down 1.00 pts. at 1426.50 as of 5:45 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's, which tested the 20-day moving average crossing at 1164.24. Stochastics and the RSI diverging and have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20- day moving average crossing at 1164.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews last month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing at 1130.03 is the next downside target. The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.80 pts. at 1161.80 as of 5:47 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hanlon/hanlon050305.html

snip>

Let's say you were the Fed Chairman and were confronted with a bursting technology bubble and a potential economic meltdown in the aftermath of 9/11; isn't it possible you'd say to yourself, "I know it may create other imbalances, but I'm going to make credit as easy as it has ever been in order to fend off a disaster, then deal with the consequences later." Look, I'm not penning my own version of "Maestro" here, but playing devil's advocate. Although such an approach is indeed fraught with peril, isn't it possible these were the thoughts going through Greenspan's mind?

snip>

Unfortunately for the Fed, while it has been nudging short-term rates upward, the long end has not been cooperating. Now, some would wonder why I'd use the word "cooperating," suggesting the Federal Reserve would actually want higher long-term interest rates, but I do think that's precisely what it wants, at least modestly higher long rates.

snip>

The bond market isn't stupid; in fact this is the deepest, most sophisticated pool of capital in the world and it's one that's also quite fearful of inflation. Here, then, the bond market has for some time been signaling exactly what the stock market finally started to suggest in recent weeks and what commentators are now acknowledging: the risk now is one of economic slowdown, perhaps a nasty one.

One could speculate as to why the Fed is raising rates at this time, but certainly one of the many reasons has to be concern for the dollar. While interest rates alone don't determine a currency's value, higher short-term rates here will certainly help prop up the Greenback. Perhaps the greatest risk to the continued wisdom of my own 2005 dollar-strength scenario is an economy that can't withstand much more in the way interest rate increases, one that ends up facing recession as a result of these rate increases sooner than expected. Such an outcome would spook the market into thinking that a new round of rates cuts might soon be coming, once again putting the Dollar at risk.

If long-term rates keep coming in, the Fed may face precisely this scenario, maybe before the year is out. Sticking with the theme of central bankers speaking clearly, I believe this helps explain the "why now?" of Greenspan's recent focus on the risks associated with Fannie Mae and comments dealing with excess speculation in the housing market. The bond market isn't concerned that runaway economic strength will cause an overheating, which could help move long-term rates up, so Greenspan actually might not mind if other concerns, perhaps even those about systemic risk actually did a little of that work for him.

more...



Here's the related What Conundrum? article

http://www.safehaven.com/article-2851.htm

Alan Greenspan publicly declared that the failure of long-term interest rates to rise meaningfully in the face of Fed tightening is a conundrum. The conventional wisdom is that the flattening of the yield curve takes place by both short and long-term interest rates moving higher, with short-term rates moving more rapidly. Does history prove this to be the case? Prior to early 1982 this was definitely so, but since 1982 the opposite has tended to occur.

snip past the charts>

It is clear from the table above that the opposite dynamics have been in force during the disinflation era as compared to the inflationary era. Long rates have dropped seven out of eight times not including the most recent cycle since this one has not yet come to an end. In addition, the average percentage change in 10-year yields has been a negative 11% while the 3-month T-Bill has increased by 30% on average, far less than the 92% experienced during the inflationary era.

snip>

So where do I stand? While I know there are a number of people who dogmatically believe that inflation is understated, I'm taking my cue from the bond market. Long-term interest rates have remained ranged-bound even in the face of rising inflationary expectations. The increase in inflationary expectations appear to be most anchored over the short-term (five years) as the break-even inflation rate for five-year TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) has gone from 1.99% to 2.85% since January 8, 2004 (the date when the yield curve reached its steepest) while the 5-year Treasury yield has increased from 3.24% to 4.13%. 10-year break-even inflation has only increased from 2.28% to 2.68% while 10-year Treasury yields have only gone up 20 basis points from 4.27% to 4.47%.

I still believe that almost all of the flattening will continue to occur on the short-end of the curve. Until the recent Treasury rally, the pessimism among bond market investors and speculators was insanely negative providing for a great contrarian trading opportunity. I would still be long Treasuries. I believe our economy is far too finance-driven (read carry trade) and that this recent easing cycle has led to unprecedented debt accumulation by the household sector. Rapid interest rate increases will create significant headwinds for the economy and I believe Treasury investors know this. I also don't buy into the Asian central banks controlling our yields. Japan has reduced its Treasury holdings and it is no longer intervening to weaken its currency. Yes, China and other countries have picked up their buying, but I believe this is one market that is pretty efficient and that no single group of buyers can overly influence yields as the Treasury market traded over $600 billion per day in February according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Perhaps my relative calm regarding inflation and long-term yields is misplaced since the person who should be most familiar with interest rate history is Alan Greenspan himself. After all, he is largely responsible for the yield curve behavior during the disinflation era. The current cycle is playing out just like the script he wrote in the past. If he is questioning why the behavior of interest rates should be different when it so mirrors the recent past he helped create, then perhaps he believes that inflationary expectations are too modest and investors need to ratchet up their return requirements to compensate themselves for this risk. Maybe the real conundrum has nothing to do with Alan Greenspan, but myself. Perhaps the true conundrum may be that I am questioning why he thinks it's a conundrum. Now that's a real conundrum!

more...

Dow 10,233.45 -18.25 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 1,925.37 -3.28 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 1,159.28 -2.88 (-0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.192 -0.02 (-0.05%)

NYSE Volume 52,982,000
Nasdaq Volume 58,904,000

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc050502.htm

Among the more difficult lessons of investing is that securities should generally be bought on weakness, unless it's the sort of weakness that should be sold.

To ask whether a falling price is bullish or bearish is like asking the ancient Zen koan “What is the sound of one hand clapping?” The question seems absurd if you take it at face value, but can lead to enlightenment if you stare at it long enough to see the interconnectedness of things.

The fact is that strength or weakness can be favorable or unfavorable, depending on the source of the strength or weakness. On one hand, weakness can mean that a stock is a better value. On the other, weakness can mean that investors are becoming risk averse, or that the market expects negative developments such as earnings shortfalls or a recession ahead. The only way to understand – to discern which of those possibilities represents the truth – is to evaluate the movements of the market in the context of everything else.

It's not enough to ask whether prices are falling. One needs to ask which prices are falling, which are not, and how does each movement differ from what one would expect given everything else that's going on? As I frequently say, the information is always in the divergences - you can only understand one thing in the context of other things.

Dualistic (bull/bear, good/bad, us/them) thinking keeps us from looking deeply, understanding the situation, and discovering truth – which might be simple, but might also be complicated, uncomfortable, uncertain, and messy. Unfortunately, investors try to create the illusion of black-and-white certainty by taking sides, and interpreting things only from the standpoint of their current position. They decide that it's a bull market and look for cheerful evidence to confirm that belief. Or they decide that it's a bear market and wake up every day, hoping for news of disaster. When our interpretation of events depends on the position we have, we're taking sides rather than seeing truth.

Taking this back to finance, look at the 10-year Treasury, for example, and you'll see a moderate dip in yield, but nothing that presents much information. Combine it with observations on T-bill yields and corporate yields, and you immediately see a flattening yield curve and widening credit spreads – both important indicators of potential economic weakness.

more...

Dow 10,259.24 +7.54 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 1,931.88 +3.23 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,161.64 -0.52 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.190 -0.04 (-0.10%)

NYSE Volume 213,676,000
Nasdaq Volume 195,172,000

9:40AM: Stocks open slightly lower ahead of an expected Federal Reserve decision to raise interest rates for the eighth straight time since last June... While there is little debate as to the size of the expected increase in the fed funds rate (i.e. 25 bps to 3.0%), market participants will be keyed to the wording of the policy statement...

Some expectations are that the statement will reflect a more aggressive approach to fighting inflation, potentially removing the promise for continuing "measured" increases, yet at the same time, with economic growth having slowed to close to long-term trends, such a slowdown could suggest that the long-awaited "neutral" stance is within sight...

Last trade 84.38 Change -0.11 (-0.13%)

Settle 84.49 Settle Time 23:35

Open 84.65 Previous Close 84.49

High 84.69 Low 84.38

Last tick: 2005-05-03 09:24:36 ET
30-min delayed quote.

they do this nearly EVERYDAY.

looking at 362 metro areas. I live in a tiny little rural/suburpia area, not a big metro area in the entire county (or any adjacent counties for that matter). Prices in this county alone are up by that 30 percent or more in three years.

We were all floored when we contacted realtors on "dad's" place. Nearly ANYTHING under 200K in this county is considered a real bargain, with buyers lining up at at the door. It's absolutely :crazy:

We have been bustin' butt to get it ready to go on the market before it's too late. That causes mixed emotions for me. I feel rather sorry for anyone buying, yet I certainly don't want us to get "stuck" with it and the property taxes either, should the bubble pop. :-(

if you take the old rough calculation of 2.5 x your AGI then you have to make 100k a year to just get the median house. that is crazy :eyes:

Median income = 68,217
Median home value = 174,296

Funny how those stats come out so nicely. From what I've seen, 175K don't getcha much in these parts and I don't know a whole lot of folks making that kinda money. I know quite a few people that make way above that, and lots that are way below. Perhaps more evidence of the vanishing middle class? :shrug:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38475.4696225116-834982710&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission said Tuesday that it has filed civil charges against two telemarketers and others for broadcasting fraudulent "wrong number" stock tip voicemail messages. The SEC alleges that the messages were part of a larger scheme by stock promoters to sell $4.5 million of the stocks mentioned in the message.

'Wrong Number' Stock Tip Scam Hits Washington State

September 21, 2004

http://www.komotv.com/stories/33180.htm

SEATTLE - It's an investor's wildest dream. Getting in at the bottom on a stock that's on the way up.

But a new stock scam could send your money down the drain.

It's a "wrong number" fraud that recently started hitting our area. It's a simple deception that targets your voicemail.

They got Karen Wertz's number in Edmonds and left a message seemingly intended for someone named Paul.

The message said "..hey Paul, it's Rebecca. Listen honey, Frank wanted me to give you a call...."

The caller's passing on a stock recommendation on the advice of a mutual friend, less than $1 a share and projected to climb $3 or $4 in the next three months.

...more...

Dow 10,252.96 +1.26 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,933.05 +4.40 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,161.47 -0.69 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.192 -0.02 (-0.05%)

NYSE Volume 877,307,000
Nasdaq Volume 733,795,000

12:00PM: Market still struggles to gain much traction midday as a mixed batch of earnings reports merely adds to an already cautious underlying sentiment ahead of today's FOMC meeting (2:15 ET)... While the Federal Reserve is widely expected raise the fed funds rate by a 1/4% (to 3.0%) - the eighth consecutive such increase - investors remain focused on the wording of the policy statement and whether the Fed is more worried about inflationary pressures or the threat of slowing growth...

Meanwhile, 9 of 13 S&P companies (i.e. EMR, MMC, STA, RIG) reporting results this morning have beaten analysts' expectations, but upside earnings surprises have been offset by downside FY05 guidance from the likes of TYC, MAS and SWY... Six out of ten economic sectors, however, trade in positive territory... The Materials sector continues to pace the way higher, benefiting from a cyclical upturn in the Chemical industry, while Financial, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary have posted modest gains... Technology has also shown relative strength, as gains in Software and Semiconductor have countered losses in Disk Drive...

Energy, however, has been the worst performing sector, as crude oil prices ($50.35/bbl -$0.57) continue to slide ahead of tomorrow's inventories data... Industrials have also been weak following Tyco's (TYC 27.76 -2.96) disappointing Q3 and FY05 guidance while Utility has been under pressure following a Merrill Lynch downgrade on TXU Corp (TXU 79.76 -6.59)... Meanwhile, Treasurys have been relatively unchanged all morning heading into the FOMC meeting, as the benchmark 10-year note is off just 1 tick to yield 4.19%...

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/business/11547904.htm

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

The imminent layoffs at American Airlines' Kansas City maintenance base will eliminate more than 500 jobs, but exactly how many employees will leave involuntarily remains unclear.

Negotiations to provide an enhanced severance package for those who take retirement to reduce the layoffs continue this week, said Gordon Clark, president of Transport Workers Union Local 530.

“We're presenting another package,” Clark said. “The company has been apprehensive about anything that adds to costs at this point.”

AMR Corp., American's parent company, has lost $2 billion in the past two years and has endured four consecutive years of losses. In addition to the June reduction, more than 400 overhaul base employees retired or were furloughed in December.

<snip>

American said last month that it will lay off 513 hourly employees, including mechanics, inspectors, aircraft cleaners, fleet service, facility maintenance and stock clerks.

...more...

But wait! There were fewer layoffs! Why does AA hate the US and its freedoms?

discover that they will get zip retirement because AA welches on it's contributions to the pension fund and they stand absolute last in the line of creditors. Sweet deal huh.

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=8375394

CANTON, Miss., May 3 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush has decided to nominate Bob Kimmitt as deputy Treasury secretary, White House spokesman Trent Duffy said on Tuesday.

Duffy said a formal announcement would be made shortly about the nomination of Kimmitt, who has been executive vice president of global public policy at Time Warner Inc. and is a former U.S. ambassador to Germany.

At Time Warner, Kimmitt was responsible for advancing the company's interests on public policy issues in the United States and around the world.

...very short newsblurb...

Kimmitt was in PR at Time Warner - spreading propaganda ... uh... public policy issues ... :argh:

back in the 90's, or his apparent previous post as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs. Wonder if he's yet another PNACer?

:puke:

What makes him qualified for this job though? I was googling and found this website:

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article4276.htm

"With this information in hand, Bob Kimmitt saw Hamdun March 22, and stressed it is important to settle these sensitive claims to remove a stumbling block from the relationship.

Following CW use in the war with Iran, Iraq used CW as part of a campaign to suppress a Kurdish rebellion last August.

We condemned unlawful CW use, and Congress began considering sanctions legislation.

Responding to our diplomatic approach and the threat of sanctions, Iraq stated adherence to international law on CW, participated constructively in the Paris Conference, and began to participate in the Conference on Disarmament talks in Geneva. "

This smells bad, I really don't like all these guys in charge of my government.



Hi UIA- you are doing such a great job at getting all this information out in this forum. My husband always asks where I get my news from when I tell hime interesting info I get from here. He doesn't have as much time to get on line as I do.:hi:

all these criminals and their exploitative philosophies are cut from the same cloth.

:blush: thanks Marale - I just can't help being a news junkie finance nerd :D

Grossman (along with a bunch of other former Under Secretaries of State for Political Affairs. But this transcript from '97 makes it sound like he wasn't exactly for PNAC. Then again he might have been thinking fast on his feet as the question he's answering was related to something buried at the end of the report in question. Gotta feeling it might have been buried for a reason. :shrug:

http://www.fas.org/man/docs/ndp/tscript.htm

QUESTION: There's a section here on how the national security apparatus has failed to get a handle on the change or the need to change, and it sounds like you've totally brushed them off. That being the case, I wonder if you could expand a little bit on what the national security apparatus has failed to do --

MR. ODEEN: Sure.

QUESTION: -- and if it wasn't all that critical, why did you (away from microphone)?

MR. ODEEN: Let me ask Ambassador Bob Kimmitt to answer that. He's had a wide range of experience both within the Pentagon and across the executive branch, as well as being an ambassador. So, Bob, how about responding to that?

MR. KIMMITT: We put it late to make sure you'd read it that far back. I'm glad to see that you have. I think, just historically, if you look in 10- year blocks, the period of '75 to '85, we had to put our individual services back together after Vietnam.


'85 to '95 was really the time that jointness came into its own, largely as a result of the impetus and Goldwater- Nichols. We think now not only do we need to move to the new levels of jointness that Phil mentioned and that are laid out in the report, but that you've got also to get the interagency piece right and the combined piece right, that is, with friends and allies.

Otherwise, what you're going to find is that our forces are going to be both employed and deployed too early and too often into non- strategic situations that are perhaps better handled by diplomacy, economic assistance, non-governmental organizations, friends and allies.

And I think that for the military itself, particularly when you look at friends, you want to make sure that we don't not just move ahead, but leap ahead, and leave the others so far behind that we're sort of condemning ourselves to unilateral action in many circumstances.

On the national security apparatus itself, I think that there has been a growing trend when people sit around the interagency table and look at a problem to move too quickly to, what can the military do to solve this particular issue?

And, really, the military should be an instrument of last resort, one that is used for, yes, shaping purposes but ultimately to protect our strategic interests. And I think that the notion of what we have here is to suggest that other parts of the U. S. government, other friends and allies need to do the same kind of search and analysis that defense did in the QDR and what we tried to do in this report. Ultimately, to make our military more effective by being part of both an interagency team is more effective in an international team is more effective.

Senator Lugar had a proposal to do something like this for the State Department. There is something called a 21st Century Security Strategy Group that was passed -- in this past Congress. And I think they're going to look at these more broadly. I think those are moves in the right direction. I think we lay out some good ideas on what can be done even short of that, however, to make the interagency piece work right. And then ultimately I think we have to work even closer with our friends and allies to make sure that we're moving forward together.

hang out?

AMERICAN ACADEMY OF DIPLOMACY
1800 K Street, NW, Suite 1014
Washington, DC 20006

Bob Kimmitt is now Executive Vice President, Global and Strategic Policy, with AOL Time Warner Inc., at 800 Connecticut Av, NW 20006-2718.

ewww!

check out who the members of this are:

http://www.academyofdiplomacy.org/members/list.html

earlier and saw the little blurb about his meeting with Grossman.
http://www.academyofdiplomacy.org/publications/newsletter_archive/newsletter_issue_57.html

I figured it was another "elitist" group with ties to Carlyle, but didn't dig much further into it. Nice list of who's who there. They are so proud of their stars now in gov't service - John Negroponte & Donald Rumsfeld. :puke:

James A. Baker, III
Frank C. Carlucci
Henry A. Kissinger
Robert McNamara
Colin L. Powell
Frank G. Wisner
Paul Wolfowitz

Shirley Temple Black

Good Ship Lolli-pop my A$$!

imho

victimized as a child
perpetrating as an adult

:sigh:

http://www.academyofdiplomacy.org/publications/fld.html

Revitalizing US Diplomacy - At Long Last, Leadership

snip>

On January 20, 2001, Secretary of State Colin Powell inherited a faltering American diplomatic system, the consequence of a decade of neglect, inadequate appropriations, and anemic leadership. Today, while much remains to be accomplished, the advances effected through his leadership are highly encouraging.

After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the American public, the Congress, and even the Executive behaved as though a dominant global power had little need for diplomacy. The Foreign Service came to be grossly under funded and understaffed; Department of State information management systems and communications technology were outdated and inefficient; professional training was neglected; many U. S. embassies and consulates overseas were dilapidated, their physical security inadequate. At home, the State Department lost ground to other agencies of government in its historical role of overseeing America’s relations with the world.

President Clinton, like most of his predecessors appointed approximately a third of his ambassadors from among political supporters, most with no evident diplomatic qualifications or relevant experience. He routinely dealt with other governments through politically selected "special envoys" (for Latin America, the Middle East, Northern Ireland, Africa, Cyprus, etc.), often bypassing the professional diplomats. By the late 1990’s, the number of Americans seeking a career in the Foreign Service was declining and resignations from the middle ranks swelled.

From 1998 to 2001, several expert commissions and study groups reviewed the malaise in the Department of State and Foreign Service. They recommended comprehensive reforms, and their findings were quite consistent.

Two of the more influential of these panels were chaired by Frank C. Carlucci, former Defense Secretary, National Security Adviser, and Foreign Service officer: Equipped for the Future—Managing US Foreign Affairs in the 21st Century (The Henry L. Stimson Center, October, 1998), and State Department Reform (Council on Foreign Relations and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, December, 2001). Carlucci had been Colin Powell’s supervisor previously in the Defense Department and National Security Council, and the two men are close. In the weeks leading up to the assumption of his new responsibilities, Powell studied the findings and recommendations of all of these panels. He was determined to redress the disturbing decline in diplomatic readiness. He met at length with Carlucci and other members of the various commissions as he developed an action program to reinvigorate the Department of State.

more...:puke:

who were in Clinton's administration were in on that article:

Madeleine Albright
Samuel R. Berger
Warren Christopher

that article sounds a lot like the PNAC position.

so they would take some issue with Clinton's style of diplomacy. Not saying Clinton was an absolute saint with regards to global relations (I still hold NAFTA against him), but geez won't we all be so much better off under perpetual war, profiteering, empire and the military industrial complex? :sarcasm:

Stan Kimmitt loved the Senate, and he respected its traditions and its role in our government. He was totally trustworthy.

I extend to his fine family my sincere condolences. His son Jay served for several years as a member of the staff of the Senate Appropriations Committee, and I enjoyed working with him in that capacity. It was also my good fortune to get to be with another son, Bob, when he was our Ambassador to Germany. His other son, Mark, was recently served as the spokesman for our Armed Forces in Iraq.

This is from Stan Kimmitt loved the Senate, and he respected its traditions and its role in our government. He was totally trustworthy.

I extend to his fine family my sincere condolences. His son Jay served for several years as a member of the staff of the Senate Appropriations Committee, and I enjoyed working with him in that capacity. It was also my good fortune to get to be with another son, Bob, when he was our Ambassador to Germany. His other son, Mark, was recently served as the spokesman for our Armed Forces in Iraq.

This is from Mr. COCHRAN when J. Stanley Kimmitt died. So this means that Bob's brother is the same General Kimmitt that oversaw the torture in Iraq. He was a member of the DLC. This is just too wierd!


http://www.ndol.org/ndol_ci.cfm?kaid=127&subid=173&contentid=253066

The United States refused to make any civilian death counts even though it will say how many "insurgents" were killed. In an April press briefing, Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt was asked about images on Arab TV of American soldiers purportedly killing Iraqi children. Kimmitt's response was straight out of 1984. "My solution is quite simple: change the channel. Change the channel to a legitimate, authoritative, honest news station. The stations that are showing Americans intentionally killing women and children are not legitimate news sources. That is propaganda and that is lies. So you want a solution? Change the channel."

Executive Vice President, Global and Strategic Policy, with AOL Time Warner Inc.

when having a State Department is not enough ... that's so Old America ... be your own state department in Corporate America ...

in the wide angle lens of 'family' or dot-connecting

"AOL(TimesWarner) is a Saudi investor?"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x3591455

fascism? what fascism??

http://www.forbes.com/2002/03/11/0311alwaleed.html

Prince Alwaleed: The Anti-Buffett?

03.11.02

NEW YORK - For a man who takes such delight in being known as the Middle East's Warren Buffett, Saudi Arabian Prince Alwaleed bin Alsaud's investment strategy sure has run counter to the Oracle of Omaha's lately. A quick look at the two men's track records over the past couple of years shows that those whose investments mirror Buffett's portfolio are resting a lot easier than those who followed Alwaleed's.

Alwaleed today announced that he recently acquired more than $1 billion in stocks, including a $500 million stake in Citigroup (nyse: C - news - people), adding to his 3.8% interest in the world's biggest bank. (See: Saudi Prince Buys $1B Citigroup, AOL, Priceline) The Prince's holdings in Citigroup constitute roughly half of his $20 billion net worth. "At about $43, Citi's share price was at too attractive a price," Alwaleed said in a release issued by his company, Kingdom Holdings.

<snip>

Alwaleed, a nephew of Saudi Arabia's King Faud, also stated today that he dropped $450 million on AOL Time Warner (nyse: AOL - news - people) and another $100 million on Priceline.com (nasdaq: PCLN - news - people). The Prince said that AOL was also too cheap to pass up and that Priceline is one of the few Internet companies that "survived the turbulence witnessed by the Internet arena." The move can be seen as bold or stupid, yet the Prince's recent investments in firms like DoubleClick (nasdaq: DCLK - news - people) and InfoSpace point to the latter.

...more...

investment was measurable in something other than money? :tinfoilhat:

Dow 10,246.94 -4.76 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,933.18 +4.53 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,160.68 -1.48 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 41.86 -0.08 (-0.19%)

NYSE Volume 1,207,826,000
Nasdaq Volume 996,159,000

1:30PM: Oil prices fall to session lows, but with the FOMC policy statement hitting the wires within the next 45 minutes, the market has failed to take note... Crude oil prices, which have been under modest pressure ahead of tomorrow's weekly inventories report, have recently fallen to $49.60/bbl (-$1.32), surpassing the April low of $49.70/bbl... The EIA is expected to show the 12th build in crude oil supplies (consensus +1.25 mln) in 13 weeks, as well as builds in gasoline stockpiles (consensus +875K) and distillates (consensus +575K)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1590/1569, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1499/1455

1:00PM: More of the same, as the indices continue to fluctuate around the flat line... On the Dow, General Electric (GE 35.83 -0.42) remains weak after receiving a subpoena related to an SEC investigation while falling oil prices continue to weigh on ExxonMobil (XOM 56.95 -0.79)... General Motors (GM 27.77 +0.61), however, has paced the way higher ahead of monthly auto sales data while Home Depot (HD 36.70 +0.44) has extended yesterday's 2.5% advance spurred by a stronger than expected rise in Mar. construction spending...

Wal-Mart (WMT 48.25 +0.45) has also climbed amid a Q2 warning from Safeway highlighting lost grocery sales to WMT... NYSE Adv/Dec 1567/1559, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1461/1465

12:30PM: Market still confined to a tight trading range, as both buyers and sellers continue to stick to the sidelines... The market's holding pattern has been further evidenced in the A/D line, as advancers on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq remain evenly matched against decliners, while the ratio of up to down volumes suggests more of a mixed bias...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38475.5946484028-834988579&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Open Market Committee increased its target for overnight interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 3% percent Tuesday. The increase in the federal funds rate was expected. The vote was unanimous. The committee once again concluded that its monetary policy stance remains accommodative and that rates could be increased "at a pace that is likely to be measured." The statement released by the FOMC left much of its March 22 statement in tact. The committee acknowledged slower growth. "Recent data suggest that the solid pace of spending growth has slowed somewhat, partly in response to the earlier increases in energy prices," the committee said.

2:16pm 05/03/05 FOMC SAYS RATES STILL 'ACCOMMODATIVE'

2:16pm 05/03/05 FOMC TAKES OUT REFERENCE TO INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

2:16pm 05/03/05 FOMC REPEATS INFLATION HAS PICKED UP IN RECENT MONTHS

2:16pm 05/03/05 FOMC: LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS STILL IMPROVING

2:16pm 05/03/05 FOMC: RECENT DATA SHOW SPENDING HAS 'SLOWED SOMEWHAT'

2:16pm 05/03/05 FOMC: RATES CAN STILL BE RAISED AT 'MEASURED' PACE

2:16pm 05/03/05 FOMC STATEMENT ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MARCH 22 STATEMENT

2:16pm 05/03/05 FOMC HIKES RATES BY QUARTER POINT TO 3% AS EXPECTED

Fed says made ommission in FOMC statement

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={B51421E7-9F99-4E0D-A7B2-901157D01476}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve said that it made an ommission in the Federal Open Market Committee statement released Tuesday afternoon. The Fed said it left out a sentence saying that inflation expectations "remain well-contained." Economists had seized on this language as a sign that the Fed was more hawkish on inflation - meaning that it would continue to hike interest rates.

that out again? So sorry for the misunderstanding. :spray:

result? I think they were once again hoping to push the bond vigilantes (who barely flinched). This sudden revision is to call off the banks move up? :shrug:

3:05pm 05/03/05 WELLS FARGO BANK RAISES PRIME LENDING RATE TO 6%

3:06pm 05/03/05 KEYCORP RAISES PRIME LENDING RATE TO 6%

3:25pm 05/03/05 NATIONAL CITY INCREASES PRIME LENDING RATE TO 6%

3:23pm 05/03/05 U.S. BANCORP INCREASES PRIME LENDING RATE TO 6%

Dow 10,288.08 +36.38 (+0.35%)
Nasdaq 1,941.39 +12.74 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,165.34 +3.18 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.214 +0.20 (+0.48%)

NYSE Volume 1,545,818,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,321,076,000

2:30PM: Market spikes lower, in sympathy with a modest reversal in Treasurys, but choppy trading leaves the indices struggling to find direction around the unchanged mark... While the policy statement was basically left unchanged, the mere fact that the Fed will continue to raise rates has weakened demand for Treasurys, as the 10-year note, which was up 6 ticks yielding 4.16% ahead of the report, has now fallen 4 ticks and now yields 4.20%...

The actual text of the statement reads: The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Recent data suggest that the solid pace of spending growth has slowed somewhat, partly in response to the earlier increases in energy prices. Labor market conditions, however, apparently continue to improve gradually. Pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months and pricing power is more evident. The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability." NYSE Adv/Dec 1674/1504, Nasdaq Adv/Dec...

Watch out for those spikes, you could put an eye out!

Dow 10,218.08 -33.62 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 1,928.30 -0.35 (-0.02%)
S&P 500 1,157.36 -4.80 (-0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 4.193 -0.01 (-0.02%)

NYSE Volume 1,738,747,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,513,557,000

3:00PM: Renewed buying interest in equities lifts the indices to session highs, as Treasurys stabilize near the unchanged mark and allow investors to take advantage of another sell-off in oil... Meanwhile, auto makers have been in focus following April auto sales figures... Despite posting a larger than expected decline of 7.4% in US sales (consensus -5.2%), due to a sharp drop in truck sales, shares of General Motors (GM 27.76 +0.60) have held onto strong gains because it is not cutting Q2 production any further...

A smaller than expected US sales decline of 2.0% (consensus -3.5%) has helped Ford Motor (F 9.48 +0.26) find buyers, but not even April sales growth of 9.3% (consensus +0.9%) at DaimlerChrysler (DCX 39.10 -0.25) has been enough to keep sellers on the sidelines... Japanese auto makers Toyota (TM 72.82 +0.37), Nissan (NSANY 19.81 +0.17) and Honda (HMC 24.07 +0.05), however, have again all turned in much stronger April auto sales growth of 21.3%, 27.0% and 13.6%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1853/1329, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1692/1330

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38475.608703669-834989290&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Major automakers saw their shares turn higher Tuesday following the Federal Reserve Bank's decision to raise interest rates. Also, U.S. vehicle sales for April looked to be better than many on Wall Street had expected. Ford Motor (F) added 2.3% to $9.43 while General Motors (GM) gained 1.6% to $27.59. DaimlerChrysler (DCX) , the only leg of the Big Three to post increased sales, actually fell slightly to $39.16. Japanese manufacturers all moved nominally higher.

Rewarding the incompetents.

Sheesh!

low financing rates and huge rebates are somehow looked upon as a good thing? That's what they are gonna have to do again to rid themselves of the excess inventory. Maybe they'll be giving away a hundred gallons of gas with every SUV purchase!

That's the ticket! Let's stimulate the consumers to take on some more debt - they can never pass up a "good deal". Is that a blue light going up at my neighborhood Chevy dealer? :eyes: