Even if Labour Wins Third Term as Expected, Tony Blair Might Lose

NNN0LHI

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Tue May-03-05 06:41 PM
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Even if Labour Wins Third Term as Expected, Tony Blair Might Lose

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGBCAI5QA8E.html

LONDON (AP) - Tony Blair is favored to win a third term in Thursday's elections - but his ability to survive for long as prime minister will rest on the margin of victory by the Labour Party, which includes strong opponents of his Iraq war policy.

If Blair's now solid lead in the House of Commons slips, he could face a struggle to control those in his party who are disillusioned with him, not only over the war but over economic policies they consider too conservative. Senior members might then challenge him for leadership.

"The election has become a referendum on Blair, and a small margin will be viewed as a negative, showing him the door," said Bill Jones, a political analyst at Manchester University. snip

A voter angry about the war also challenged the prime minister at one of his campaign stops. Blair repeated his position that it was a difficult decision to send troops to Iraq, but he did what he felt was right.

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Kagemusha

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Tue May-03-05 07:23 PM
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1. Any win will be personal vindiation for Blair.

All deals will be off and he'll go down fighting tooth and nail.

IMHO.

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Lexingtonian

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Tue May-03-05 07:35 PM
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2. I'll agree and disagree

I think for average British voters this election is about finishing off the Thatcherite Tories.

My expectation is Blair and Iraq will be dealt with very soon after the election is over. He'll collapse in the polls but will cling to every last hold he has left- conservatives who will prefer him to Brown- and it will take a couple of months.

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Kagemusha

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Tue May-03-05 07:37 PM
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3. Well, I also mean it's vindication for Blair in his own personal mind.

He may yet be disabused of this notion after the election.

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Lexingtonian

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Tue May-03-05 07:52 PM
Response to Reply #3

4. Oh, sure

He'll definitely join the Bush Delusional Mandate Club for a time, upping the membership temporarily.

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Anarcho-Socialist

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Tue May-03-05 08:45 PM
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5. He'll be gone in a year, presuming Labour wins

The power-base in the Labour Party has heavily shifted to Gordon Brown in the past six months.

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KoKo

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Tue May-03-05 09:31 PM
Response to Reply #5

7. How does the powerbase shift to Brown if Labour wins big, though?

That's always confusing when I see it posted. Wouldn't Blair believe that the people chose him inspite of Iraq because they support him. How does Brown then edge up to replace Blair? :shrug:

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Anarcho-Socialist

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Tue May-03-05 09:42 PM
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8. Even if Labour win big...

...people may still interpret this as due to Brown's intervention in the election campaign. Labour's election campaign was going badly until Brown stepped-in and salavaged it.

In Britain, most people still "vote for the party", rather than the "leader" like in other countries. Most opinion polls show that people still like the Labour Party despite loathing Blair.

The media think there was a deal done between Blair and Brown in that Brown would bail Blair out by intervening in the campaign and in return Blair would step-down sometime after the election in favour of Brown. It's a widely-held view that most Parliamentary Labour members prefer Brown to Blair because of Blair's unpopularity with the public and this is what gives Brown his powerbase.

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KoKo

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Tue May-03-05 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #8

11. Ahh...thanks. The party and not necessarily the "person.'

Still, I somehow can't see Blair stepping aside. His ego is the size of the Chimps. But, perhaps the "people" of GB have more power than we do here, these days.

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ktowntennesseedem

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Tue May-03-05 09:11 PM
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6. They don't use Diebold in the UK, do they?

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Anarcho-Socialist

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Tue May-03-05 09:43 PM
Response to Reply #6

9. No, it's a paper ballot n/t

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w4rma

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Tue May-03-05 10:34 PM
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10. Vote Lib Dem. The Tories will vote to keep Blair in power. And about half

Edited on Tue May-03-05 10:36 PM by w4rma

of Labour will vote to keep Blair with the Tories.

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