May. 4, 2005 - Oil prices climbed above $50 a barrel Wednesday despite rising U.S. inventories of crude oil and gasoline, a counterintuitive market response that analysts chalked up to technical trading and speculation about future supply tightness.
Energy futures fell immediately after the government released its weekly supply data, but they reversed course, Lebow said, as a result of short-covering, in which traders who had banked on even lower prices were forced to cover their bets, pushing prices higher.
"Fourth quarter demand has become a preoccupation of the market," Lebow said. The supply of gasoline grew by 2.2 million barrels to 213.5 million barrels, or 6 percent above year ago levels. "The U.S. gasoline market is showing marked signs of improvement for consumers," the Energy Department said in its weekly analysis.
Oil analyst Tim Evans at IFR Energy Services in New York said there is plenty of crude oil and gasoline in the market, and that traders and speculators are downplaying these supply-demand fundamentals. He said what's keeping oil prices high is "a near-religious belief that although the market is not tight now, it will be later." "Where is this tightness they're talking about?" Evans said.
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Talk about a screw job.