STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 13 May

A Bull Market in Indecision
Searching for Trends in a Trendless Market

The S&P 500 touched 1,155 on January 27th of 2004, over 15 months ago, and as of Wednesday night it sits at about that same level. In that time, there has been so much analysis, so little movement and so much money floating about looking for a speculative gain. It appears that there is nothing profitable happening in the long and intermediate term, and in the short term there are only small market gyrations that appear to be getting smaller and smaller as over 8,000 hedge fund managers jostle for a couple of tenths from the greater fool behind them. This can be the calm before the storm or the calm before the party, or the calm that may last throughout the decade of the year 2000. Stocks seemingly have permanently broken the valuation tether in the ‘90s, so there is little use for valuation analysis in the intermediate term. With the intermediate term looking so indecisive, tonight I will look at the short term – that is days to week time frame to attempt to scratch out a few tenths like the legions of professionals that do this for their life’s work.

S&P 500

The chart below is a 6-month daily chart of the S&P 500 index. There are some bullish and bearish features in the chart which present a mixed picture. Is the glass half empty or half full?


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Today’s Market

It’s still a bull market in indecision. But away from the stock markets there is a possibility that some decisions were made today. The US dollar appears to have broken out of an upward sloping trendline. Does this mean that it will continue to shoot straight up? Maybe not, because it is short term overbought; however there’s no denying that it appears to head higher as it put out a long white candlestick today as it simultaneously punched through its 200-day moving average. It’s still in a bearish (default) point-and-figure pattern, yet if and when it touches 86 it becomes bullish.


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That is (again). Interest rates down, commodities down, dollar up, gold down, Japanese stocks down (that correlate with interest rates see), and last but not least stocks down. Oh did I mention the ugly action in homebuilding stocks? It’s not confirmed yet because trendlines have not been decisively broken yet. But this scenario has my attention.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 85.94 Change +0.45 (+0.53%)

The Relentless Rise of the Dollar Bull

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1072&Itemid=39

What a week for dollar bulls! Since last Friday the EUR/USD has lost 300 points as a string of positive economic news confirmed the dollar long position that US short term rates should advance further widening the carry trade advantage and attracting more speculative flow to the greenback. With every news item going their way, dollar bulls now find themselves probing the yearly lows with the key 1.2500 figure enticingly within reach.Why is 1.2500 so important? That level represents the last support for the long term uptrend in the pair going back 3 years. If EUR/USD takes out that level and remains there for a material amount of time the long term technical damage to euro bulls will be severe. It is much too premature to speculate on the end of the euro bull run - the pair has made several vicious retracements in the past only to reach news highs thereafter – but as we move into the summer the battleground will be set.

One story that has been pushed off the front pages but may yet help the euro is the latest polling on the EU referendum in France. According to the most recent survey by CSA published in Le Parisien 51 per cent of respondents would vote in favor of EU constitution. Since euro trades in the FX market primarily as the “anti-dollar” – that is as the only viable alternative to dollar’s reserve currency status – any news that would further solidify the EU region as an integrated economic and political force would be quite positive for the unit and may actually offer some support around the 1.2500 level.

...more...

Dollar Launches Successful Attack on Majors

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1064&Itemid=39

EUR/USD – Euro bulls were in full retreat after the dollar bulls launched a major counteroffensive that broke all the major defense levels. As the euro continues to retreat, single currency bulls will rely on a minor support at 1.2655, Oct 28 daily spike low, with an intermediate support seen at 1.2574, an Oct 21 daily spike.
A major support is being established at 1.2467, a July 20 daily spike high and a top of the 2004 summer range. In case euro bulls manage to mount a counteroffensive they will encounter a minor resistance at 1.2730, a Feb 7-10 consolidation low, with a move further meeting an intermediate resistance at 1.2801, Apr 5 daily low. A move deeper into the greenback held territory will come upon a major resistance at 1.2040, Oct 26 daily high. Indicators are aligned. Stochastic is oversold on both the daily chart at 6.79 and at 6.88 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is approaching oversold line on the daily chart at 33.06 and is oversold at 23.59 on the 4-hour chart. MACD remains below zero line on both the daily chart and on the dealer (4HR) chart.

...more...

I have been thinking about this latest "rise" in the dollar and hearing all the spinning heads talk about how dollar is about to "break out" and really take off.

If you look at the long-term chart here:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=dmax

you will see a pattern - for the past 2 years the dollar has gained after March 31 through the summer months - but the highs are lower and the lows are deeper with each "gain".

This looks to me like a sucker's rally - and perhaps the powers that be are setting the dollar up to cash out.

Just my 2 cents.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20050513/bs_afp/chinaeconomyforex_050513063616

snip>

Under a previously announced plan, more currencies will be added to China's forex trading system next Wednesday, sparking speculation that the People's Bank of China could use the occasion to revalue or widen the yuan's trading band.

Trading will be broadened to introduce eight new currency pairs, including the US dollar against the Hong Kong dollar, Japanese yen, British pound, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the euro, and the euro against the yen.

Earlier this week billions of dollars of speculative money was let loose on forex markets worldwide after confused reports -- forcefully rejected by the central bank -- that China would revalue the currency on May 18 at the time of the change.

Beijing is under fierce pressure to float the yuan. Legislation pending in the US Congress would impose a 27.5 percent tariff across the board on Chinese imports if the peg does not go within six months.

more..

8:30am 05/13/05 U.S. MARCH INVENTORIES-SALES RATIO 1.31 VS 1.32 FEB

8:30am 05/13/05 U.S. IMPORT PRICES UP 8.1% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

8:30am 05/13/05 U.S. MARCH BUSINESS SALES UP 0.7%

8:30am 05/13/05 U.S. APRIL IMPORTED OIL PRICE UP 3.1%

8:30am 05/13/05 U.S. MARCH RETAIL INVENTORIES UP 0.3%

8:30am 05/13/05 U.S. APRIL EXPORT PRICES EX-AG UP 0.5%

8:30am 05/13/05 U.S. MARCH BUSINESS INVENTORIES UP 0.4% VS 0.6 FORECAST

8:30am 05/13/05 U.S. IMPORT PRICES UP 8.1% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

8:30am 05/13/05 U.S. APRIL EXPORT PRICES UP 0.6%

8:30am 05/13/05 U.S. APRIL IMPORTED OIL PRICE UP 3.1%

8:30am 05/13/05 U.S. APRIL IMPORT PRICES EX-OIL UP 0.4%

8:30am 05/13/05 U.S. APRIL EXPORT PRICES EX-AG UP 0.5%

8:30am 05/13/05 U.S. APRIL IMPORT PRICES RISE 0.8%

8:30am 05/13/05 U.S. APRIL EXPORT PRICES UP 0.6%

9:50am 05/13/05 U.S. MAY UMICH EXPECTATIONS 73.7 VS. 77.0

9:48am 05/13/05 U.S. MAY. UMICH CURRENT CONDITION 103.3 VS 104.4

9:47am 05/13/05 U.S. MAY UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT 85.3 VS 87.7

(edited to add details)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={9343BADA-2F12-4865-B3C7-16E69F5CAED4}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer sentiment eroded for the fifth month in a row in May, according to researchers at the University of Michigan. The consumer sentiment index fell to 85.3 in mid-May from 87.7 in April, according to media reports. It's the lowest since March 2003. The decrease was below the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists of 88.2. The current conditions index fell to 103.3 in May from 104.4 in April, the lowest since December 2003. The expectations index dropped to 73.7 in May from 77.0 in the previous month, the lowest since March 2003.

http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0505/11/A01-178346.htm
Is this even legal???

http://www.privacyrights.org/fs/fs8-med.htm

4. Employers usually obtain medical information about their employees by asking employees to authorize disclosure of medical records. This can occur in several ways not covered by HIPAA. Unfortunately, the laws in only a few states require employers to establish procedures to keep employee medical records confidential. (For example, California Civil Code §56.)

A potential employer may ask for medical information as part of an employment background check, with limitations as explained below. To learn more on employment background checks and an employer's obligations under the FCRA, read PRC Fact Sheet 16 on background checks, www.privacyrights.org/fs/fs16-bck.htm, and the FTC's web site, www.ftc.gov/bcp/conline/pubs/buspubs/credempl.htm.

According to the federal Americans with Disabilities Act in workplaces with more than 25 employees (ADA text, www.eeoc.gov/laws/ada.html, 42 USC §12101 et seq.)
Employers may not ask job applicants about medical information or require a physical examination prior to offering employment.After employment is offered, an employer can only ask for a medical examination if it is required of all employees holding similar jobs.
If you are turned down for work based on the results of a medical examination, the employer must prove that it is physically impossible for you to do the work required.

Report violations of the ADA to the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC). Phone: (800) 669-4000. Web: www.eeoc.gov.

(go to link for imbedded link information)

Morning converted_democrat :hi:

Happy Friday the 13th !!!!!! Wonder what the day will bring? :popcorn:

:donut: I know that hospitals won't release squat without a person's signature. I also know that in a right to work state, employees have no rights. I know that HIPPA was started to protect health records and insure some privacy. I suspect this data is shared anyway (in the digital sphere). What this company does is based on the need to intimidate the employees. Hello, sick days are given because...well, you're sick.

Happy Hunting and watch out for the bears.

My thought is this....Jane Doe calls in with the flu, Delphi gets here records and finds she has high blood pressure and lupus. They then realize what a costly liability she could become and go looking for reasons to fire her. If she wasn't forced to give the info in the first place no one would've known about the "other" issues. Once she's fired she has no heath care and to any "new" job she gets with benefits will be useless because it would then be a pre-existing condition.

And what did our lucky contestent win...A Pink slip.

One got a sh*tty "special" review shortly after returning from heart surgery. Mind you, his regular annual review 4 months prior was just peachy. He got a "special" review, because upon his return, they changed his job title (doing the same work - mind you) and that change in title came with a 60-day review, where suddenly they came across ALL kinds of criticism of his work.

Another, whose daughter had several surgeries, met the same fate. Though I don't know the particulars on the steps they took with him.

This all happened the same year the company became "self-insured". Both contacted the state, and while the state was sympathetic and agreed they were royally screwed, they also said it would be extremely hard to fight, and there wasn't much the state could do.

and coverage decreases -

homeowners insurance does the same shitty thing - pay premiums for years - make a small claim (or a large one for that matter) and most companies cancel or refuse to renew

I am hoping that Spitzer gets to the bottom of this crap - especially sinse it appears that the WH doesn't think there is a real problem - either with healthcare or insurance (or anything else that matters to every person in this country)

that this country needs a national health care system.
think about it just from an economic point of view if company's didn't have to offer health care then they could raise wages or capital spending.

I fear that It would just lead to bigger bonuses for the Board of directors.

A couple of friends of mine we gun-ho on the war and listened to the crap on Fox news. I think they ended up voting for *. They both worked part time and one from home. They both had to go to work full time this year because of insurance issues. One has a child with a lot of health problems and the reason she stayed home was because of that.

in a way, I think it is what they deserve, yet they just did not make the time to find out the truth about things. They have good hearts, they don't know that the media keeps the truth from them. We really do need universal health control. The insurance is the main reason that medicine costs so much and why people that don't have insurance can't afford it.

I have had many nurse friends that suffered on the job musculoskeletal injuries (did you know that nurses are required to lift more weight that a UPS worker) or developed hospital career ending latex allergies (even aids) that suddenly found they earned unsatisfactory preformance evals and had to go on a 'plan', not achieve the goals and be booted. Hell, they'd find a reason if your salary was too high do to service length. And if you are caught trying to organize, they'd make up shit to get you out ASAP (ask the nurse that was canned for flushing a line with NS without a Dr.s order, even though it was common practice (and a recommended practice for some things). Out of the 18 nurses in my class, 1/3 are out due to diability (with varing degress of success in collecting disability), 1/2 have left the profession due to burnout and 1/6 are still at it. Oh and if you think your social security future look bright, you're going to love what the CEO's of health care have done to the system.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38485.3431905787-835351118&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- All American Semiconductor (SEMI) Friday reported first-quarter earnings of $61,000, or a penny a share, down from a year-ago profit of $891,000, or 22 cents a share. Sales slipped in the latest three months to $94.3 million from $98.2 million in the same period a year earlier. Thomson First Call doesn't publish a consensus estimate for the company's results. The Miami electronic components distributor noted business was soft in the quarter but said it doesn't believe this condition is a long-term trend. The stock closed Thursday at $4.10, down 2 cents.

That's a pretty significant "soft spot"!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38485.3766118982-835353282&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Foamex International (FMXI) Friday reported a first-quarter loss of $10.9 million, or 44 cents a share, wider than a year-ago loss of $2.1 million, or 9 cents a share. Sales rose 6% in the latest three months to $332.7 million from $313.6 million in the same period a year earlier. Gross profit margins fell to 8.3% in the quarter from 12.7% a year ago. The Linwood, Pa., maker of polymer foam products said the results were generally in line with its expectations. Thomson First Call doesn't publish a consensus estimate for the company's results. The stock closed Thursday unchanged at $1.45.

Some more of that "soft spot"?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38485.3816229051-835353521&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Hooker Furniture (HOFT) warned that second-quarter sales would fall short of expectations as shipments were hurt by retail weakness. The furniture maker now expects revenue to decline 5 to 7% from $91.5 million in the same period a year ago, vs. prior projections that revenue would be flat. The stock closed Thursday down 28 cents at $16.50.

"Soft spot" or "cushion"?

Some might wonder just why the American politicians are upset. The way things work now, China sells to the world most everything the world wants and then buys United States Treasury securities. That helps hold down interest rates and stimulates consumer spending.

snip..

In Washington, the theory is that China's keeping the yuan low increases America's trade deficit. But the benefits to United States exporters from a modest rise in the Chinese currency would most likely be small, while the effect of higher interest rates could be larger if China cut back on its purchases, particularly if other Asian central banks decided that they, too, wanted to sell dollars.

If that were to happen, the impact could be acute in the housing market. Investors in housing stocks have been nervous for some time, happy to see ever-higher profits but worried that the good times must end someday and fearful that they could be left holding the bag when that happens.

snip..

Kathleen Shanley, a bond analyst at Gimme Credit, points out that Pulte's inventory of land is concentrated in areas where home prices have been rising rapidly and that the company's cash flow is negative, even as profits soar, because of all the land it is buying. Pulte has been borrowing money even as it buys back stock at high prices.

When things were at their worst in Las Vegas, Pulte was seeing cancellations of home purchases that amounted to 75 percent of new sales. "The risk of similar, and perhaps more prolonged, regional downturns should not be ignored," Ms. Shanley wrote in a note to clients.

Rising interest rates could be a cause of such downturns. Homeowners with fixed-rate mortgages would be relatively immune, although they could find it harder to sell if they needed to, and the flow of cash from mortgage refinancings would dry up. But many buyers, particularly in some of the hottest markets, have resorted to floating-rate mortgages, some of them paying only interest.

Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman, has less power over interest rates than he once did. Perhaps the real decision maker will be Hu Jintao, the Chinese president, as he weighs the pressures to free his currency and stop accumulating Treasury securities.

In the words of Robert J. Barbera, the chief economist of ITG/Hoenig, "Hu's in charge here."


http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/13/business/worldbusiness/13norris.html?

Oh to be a fly on the wall at the Fed meetings....

coming from?

Hedge funds?

Doesn't seem like individual investors :eyes:

hedges in the foreground with a hedge-trimmer following close behind them. :evilgrin:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aCFwxsnbYq2A&refer=asia

May 13 (Bloomberg) -- China's producer prices rose in April at the fastest pace in three months as fuel costs surged, boosting chances the government will tighten investment restrictions to keep inflation in check.

Producer prices in the world's seventh-largest economy rose 5.8 percent from a year earlier after climbing 5.6 percent in March, the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics said on its Web site. Crude-oil costs jumped 37 percent and coal prices increased 26 percent.

``Sooner or later this will trickle down to consumer prices,'' said Qu Hongbin, a senior economist at HSBC Plc in Hong Kong. ``That's the real fear. The government needs to do more.''

snip>

Producer prices rose 5.6 percent in the first quarter, twice as fast as consumer prices, official figures show. The gap between producer-price inflation and consumer-price inflation widened to 2.9 percentage points in March from 0.9 percentage point a year earlier. The statistics bureau is due to report April consumer-price inflation figures on May 16.

Manufacturers are likely to mark prices higher as soon as market conditions permit and that may spur inflation, according to Qu. To prevent inflation accelerating, the central bank will probably raise its benchmark lending rate by 0.3 percentage point this year, he said.

more...

briefing.com

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0. Stage remains set for stocks to open to the upside as the futures market still holds a positive bias... Companies in focus this morning following some notable ratings changes include upgrades on DD, DELL and TGT while KSS, QCOM and RIMM have been downgraded... Prudential has raised its estimates and price target on INTC while Aerospace & Defense should be in focus after CSFB initiated coverage of several select names (i.e. BA, GD, LLL)

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Still shaping up to be a modestly higher open for the cash market, as futures indications trade above fair value... Aside from Dell's upbeat earnings report, arguably oversold conditions following yesterday's widespread sell-off that left the S&P down 1.0% - at its worst levels this month and off nearly 2.0% since the start of April - have also contributed to an improved sentiment this morning

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Futures trade holds relatively steady following economic data, still suggesting a higher open for the indices... Mar. business inventories have checked in slightly lower than expected with a gain of 0.4%, following a 0.5% gain in February

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. Futures market suggesting a higher open for the cash market as concerns about a slowdown in tech spending have been eased following strong Q1 earnings and encouraging Q2 guidance from Dell... Meanwhile, investors are awaiting some economic data that could also influence the overall tone of today's trading...

ino.com

The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and have turned neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes above this year's downtrend line crossing near 1469.50 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1440.05 would signal that the short covering rally off April's low has come to an end. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 4.50 pts. at 1462 as of 5:22 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1161.28. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short-term top has been posted. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1161.28 are needed to confirm that the short covering rally off April's low has come to an end. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-April decline crossing at 1185 is the next upside target. The June S&P 500 Index was up 1.90 pts. at 1161.10 as of 5:25 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning.

Dow 10,192.59 +3.11 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,981.96 +18.08 (+0.92%)
S&P 500 1,160.72 +1.36 (+0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.141 -0.43 (-1.03%)

NYSE Volume 5,478,000
Nasdaq Volume 33,134,000

What's up with the Nasdaq and Bonds?

9:35am 05/13/05 <$INDU> DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS UP 8 POINTS AT 10,197

9:35am 05/13/05 <$COMPQ> NASDAQ COMPOSITE UP 20 POINTS AT 1,983

9:36am 05/13/05 <$SPX> S&P 500 UP FRACTIONALLY AT 1,159

How can that be accurate with the volume so low?

9:40AM: Stocks rebound nicely following yesterday's drubbing, as investors embrace an encouraging earnings report from Dell... While Dell (DELL 37.91 +1.30) merely matched analysts' estimates of $0.37, Q1 profits grew 28% year over year, as Dell also guided Q2 revenues of $13.6-13.8 bln (consensus $13.6 bln)... Perhaps more notably, Dell said that demand picked up sharply in April, which tends to support the temporary soft patch theory on the economy...

Dell's outlook has thus eased fears of waning IT demand - as evidenced in IBM's March earnings report - by validating Cisco Systems' (CSCO 18.81 +0.11) view earlier this week as well as upbeat forecasts from Microsoft (MSFT 25.04 +0.04) and Intel (INTC 25.09 +0.25)... Separately, a preliminary read on May Consumer Sentiment (consensus 88.3) should hit the wires momentarily...

yahoo.com

but the people that don't have their heads up Wall Street and live on Main Street are literally screaming in pain.

Wall Street better get a grip on reality or they will be the last idiots on the block to read the danger signs.

:applause: :applause: :applause: :woohoo: I think this is why we HAVE so many suprised economist. They earn those high incomes, get their info from MSM (or those gov stats that seem to need to be chronically readjusted after the fact anymore), and talk exclusively to their other economist friends (like BushCo and their inner circle). They are so disconnected from reality anymore. Well, as someone once said, it's a recession when your neighbour loses their job, it's a recession when you lose YOUR job.

it's a recession when your neighbour loses their job, it's a depresion when you lose YOUR job.

or to that effect.

:hi:have a great day AnneD

I just got so riled I typed faster than I should have and didn't proof...oops:blush:

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGB1SJ8OO8E.html

NEW YORK (AP) - A computer problem at an unidentified stock trader caused erroneous, exaggerated prices - some as high as $950 per share - to be posted to the Nasdaq Stock Market Friday morning, a spokeswoman for the Nasdaq said.

The Nasdaq said it is reviewing all trades between 9:19 a.m. and approximately 9:40 a.m., when the problem occurred. A large number of securities were affected, though none of them appeared to be among the Nasdaq's most heavily traded stocks.

The problem has been corrected, Nasdaq spokeswoman Bethany Sherman said. If any transactions were completed at those higher prices, those transactions will be broken and the sellers will get their stock back. The Nasdaq planned to post a list of affected stocks on its Web site Friday.

The problem arose when a broker linked to the all-electronic Nasdaq system inadvertently put out bids for stocks that were substantially higher than the prices in which those stocks normally trade. For example, shares of Maxco Inc., a metal heat-treating company that normally trades between $3 and $4 per share, was briefly quoted at $951.47 Friday morning. It later traded at $4.10 per share.

And J.W. Mays Inc., which normally trades between $15 and $16 per share, was quoted as high as $136 on Friday.

...more...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1469880

(thanks Don!)

http://www.prudentbear.com/midweekanalysis.asp

Last week, the Labor Department reported that 274,000 jobs were created in April. This was significantly better than the 174,000 increase economists were expecting. Additionally, the past two months were revised higher by a cumulative 93,000 jobs. The weak March employment report started the wave of “soft-patch” commentary. The commentary has already shifted with economists now explaining that poor weather and the Easter shift caused the weaker economic activity. The economy also expanded at a faster pace during the first quarter than initially reported. The trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in March by $6 billion to $55 billion. This will boost first quarter GDP from the initial growth estimate of 3.1% to almost 4.0%. Economists also expect retail sales to increase by 0.8% in April, more than twice the pace of last month. It would also be the largest increase since December.

Retail sales as measured by the ICSC reported a 2.3% gain in same store sales for April. This was the lowest growth since November, but was impacted by an early Easter. Retail sales were best at the club stores followed by the department stores. Discount retailers posted the weakest growth. Target’s sales increased only 1.3%, lower than the 2.2% increase Wall Street expected. Wal-Mart’s same store sales increased only 0.1%. This was quite a drop off from the 4.8% growth posted last month and was likely due to the shift in Easter. The previous time that Easter shifted into March was in 2002 and same store sales growth was sharply lower in April compared to March. In that year, Wal-Mart’s April same store sales increased only 3.2% after rising 10.7% in March. However, 0.1% growth for Wal-Mart is extremely weak. The only time same store sales have grown slower in the past ten years was in April 1996 when same store sales declined by 0.2%. :eyes: (Fuzzy Logic)

snip to the Oh Sh*t section>

In February, the FDIC published a report discussing U.S. housing prices. It was updated last week using end of the year data. Across the nation, housing prices rose almost 11% on average according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) up from the 7% growth during 2002 and 2003. This was the fastest pace since 1979 and after adjusting for inflation the 8% increase was the largest increase in 30 years. More importantly, the number of metropolitan areas that are in the midst of a housing boom jumped 72% to 55. This is twice the number just two years ago and twice the previous record of 24 in 1988. The FDIC defined a boom as a 30% real appreciation over a three year span. The report found that only 17% of the previous 63 booms ended in a bust defined as a nominal price drop of 15% over 5 years. Usually housing markets remained stagnant for several years as the economic fundamental caught up with the elevated housing prices. However, the report was quick to point out that with so many different markets experiencing a housing boom, history might be a poor guide to the current boom. It said that national factors such as the “expansion of subprime and high loan-to-value mortgage, along with the growing use of home equity lines of credit, could change the dynamics of home prices in future cycles.”

Not surprising most of the boom markets were in California (21 out of 55). Most of the other areas were along the East Coast. There were 18 metropolitan areas in the Northeast and 11 in Florida. There were 24 markets that were added at the end of 2004. Of these, only 6 had experienced a housing boom before. This led the FDIC to postulate that the broadening of the housing boom could be due to a growing influence of national factors. (Well, DUH!):crazy: Typically, housing markets are driven by local factors. The report said that if national factors are playing a more important role, the most import factors to examine would be the “availability, price, and terms of mortgage credit.”

Using this criteria, it would appear national factors are indeed playing a much larger role in the current boom than they historically have. First, the cost of mortgage credit is near an all-time low. Usually, strong demand pushes up prices. Over the past few years, however, there has been record amount of mortgage growth, while the cost of mortgage credit has remained at or near all-time lows. Second, the terms of mortgages have been relaxed. The popularity of subprime mortgages surged in 2004, accounting for almost 20% of all originations, up from under 9% in 2003. Additionally, even as the cost of a thirty-year mortgage was near historic lows, adjustable rate mortgages accounted for almost 46% of the value of new mortgages and 36% of the number, up from 29% and 19%, respectively in 2003. Additionally, the report said that homebuyers in several of the metropolitan areas that are experiencing a boom are using ARMs more often than the national average. The report concludes that “these trends suggest that highly-leveraged borrowers are increasingly taking on interest-rate risk as they stretch to afford high-cost housing.” The recent introduction of interest-only and option ARMs only compounds the situation. The last point the report addresses is the increased number of investor purchases of homes. Investors accounted for 9% of the mortgages in 2004, up from 6% in 2000 and in some of the boom markets investors comprised up to 19% of the mortgage originations.

more...

What do you think the Internet has to do with this, since you can go online and get a mortgage from any were with almost no documentation.

the changes during Ray-guns term. That's when they started to allow interstate banking.

I was in banking back then, and against the reforms (risk of repeating myself here)....Of course our bank president made our Christmas bonuses dependent upon us writing our Congress-critters in support of the bill. Needless to say, he didn't like my letter to my Congress critter, hated my published LTTE, and I didn't get a Christmas bonus that year. (I was damned lucky to keep my job!) But I digress....

a nasty bank employer in the early 90s - they wanted me to contribute to a PAC - oh well...

suspect Greenspin is, and always has been, the main tool of the pack. He's had 17 years to do their bidding and get us to the point we are at today in today's "new finance-based economy".

:tinfoilhat: It was a carefully thought out plan that they knew would take decades to implement, but they've just about made it. Old "Chopper" Ben has been briefed and groomed to carry on. I wouldn't doubt that Bolton is the another tool, along with Wolfie over at the IMF.

I think half the people in my office voted for *'sh because they thought thats what our CEO would do(small company).

Dow 10,169.16 -20.32 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,972.43 +8.55 (+0.44%)
S&P 500 1,155.45 -3.91 (-0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.133 -0.51 (-1.22%)

NYSE Volume 211,403,000
Nasdaq Volume 228,518,000

10:00AM: Major indices pull back following another disappointing read on consumer sentiment... Within the last 15 minutes, investors have witnessed the fifth consecutive decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which checked in at a discouraging 85.3 - the lowest level since March 2003 - versus expectations of 88.3 and down from a prior read of 87.7... Treasurys, however, have extended early gains, as the 10-year note is now 16 ticks to yield 4.11%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1360/1049, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1743/1023

Dow 10,190.15 +0.67 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,978.70 +14.82 (+0.75%)
S&P 500 1,158.18 -1.18 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.119 -0.65 (-1.55%)

NYSE Volume 366,213,000
Nasdaq Volume 355,506,000

Dow 10,178.03 -11.45 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,976.03 +12.15 (+0.62%)
S&P 500 1,156.19 -3.17 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.123 -0.61 (-1.46%)

NYSE Volume 455,846,000
Nasdaq Volume 435,796,000

10:30AM: More of the same, as the major averages still trade in split fashion and sector leadership remains mixed... Technology continues to pace the way higher, led by Dell's strong report and a 2.0% surge in Semiconductor... The Energy and Materials sectors, however, have extended yesterday's weakness at the expense of strong follow-through buying interest in the U.S. dollar... Despite an ongoing rally in the Treasury market, interest-rate sensitive areas like Financial, Utility and Homebuilding have continued to falter while weakness in Drug stocks have weighed on Health Care... DJUA -0.3, XOI -0.9, NYSE Adv/Dec 930/1877, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1465/1474

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B40C7B7F8%2D353A%2D47AD%2D942C%2D438D0DC86683%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

For the PBGC, its deficit is mounting. Including United's plans, the deficit tops $23 billion. That has led many to call for reform before the agency's burden becomes too great. See full story.

Miller and Schakowsky have been pushing for further pension reform on many levels. Amid United's courtroom showdown over its retirement plans, the lawmakers are trying to tie executive and employee retirement plans together to avoid preferential treatment during bankruptcy. See full story.

...more...

Dow 10,212.17 +22.69 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 1,986.77 +22.89 (+1.17%)
S&P 500 1,161.50 +2.14 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.120 -0.64 (-1.53%)

NYSE Volume 620,844,000
Nasdaq Volume 592,755,000

11:00AM: Market improves its stance, as renewed buying interest lifts the blue chip indices modestly above the unchanged mark... Meanwhile, the Commerce Dept. earlier reported a smaller than expected rise of 0.4% in Mar. business inventories (consensus +0.6%) - far weaker than Q1 GDP assumptions... While the market typically ignores the inventories report, the fact that a change in the aggregate inventory profile, combined with strong retail sales data and a much smaller trade deficit, Q1 GDP should be revised upward as early Q2 GDP estimates are already being boosted...NYSE Adv/Dec 1087/1881, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1561/1438

(added blather on edit)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38485.4641883796-835358011&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. Attorney's Office in Boston said Friday that it has settled a whistleblower lawsuit with Oracle Corp. (ORCL) related to a claim brought by the former vice president of North American sales for Oracle unit Oracle University for $8 million. In the suit, the United States alleged that Oracle submitted false claims for payment for computer training to a number of government agencies from 1997 through 2003. The U.S. Attorney said that the whistleblower in the case will receive $1.58 million of the $8 million total settlement.

defrauding the government = defrauding the taxpayers

lovely ethical corporations :sarcasm:

11:30am 05/13/05 MOODY'S LOWERS COLLINS & AIKMAN BY 2 NOTCHES

11:30am 05/13/05 MOODY'S OUTLOOK ON COLLINS & AIKMAN NEGATIVE

or anything like that! Heaven forbid!!!! :eyes:

Notice this is all about Stockman, no details on what else may have went wrong?

Or supply-side economics impact on the real world. The federal government is such a slow-moving disfunctional beast that it takes a while to see the impact of the disastrous Reaganesque economic policies. But Stockman's economic stewardship has produced the end result of these economic proclivities in the time it takes for mold to bloom in a petri dish.

This is slash and burn economics. These Reagan-era creatures operate with the same progress as locusts.

http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/4025.html

Greenspan’s hackery
Posted 12:18 pm | Printer Friendly
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) may have been a little intemperate when he called Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan “one of the biggest political hacks we have here in Washington” last month, but then again, if the shoe fits…

Bloated budget deficits pose a danger to the nation’s long-term economic health, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned anew Thursday. He issued a fresh call to policy-makers to move swiftly to get the government’s fiscal house in order. (…)

Greenspan said the persistence of swollen budget deficits in the years ahead “would cause the economy to stagnate or worse” unless the situation is reversed. “The federal budget is on an unsustainable path, in which large deficits result in rising interest rates and ever-growing interest payments that augment deficits in future years,” Greenspan said.

Yeah, now he tells us. Those would be the same record-high deficits caused by Bush tax cuts that Greenspan endorsed in 2001 — and supports making permanent into the future.

Indeed, let’s not forget how tragically misguided Greenspan has been on the subject. In 2001, the Federal Reserve chairman helped boost Bush’s tax-cut package by saying it would help balance the budget.

“In today’s context, where tax reduction appears required in any event over the next several years to assist in forestalling the accumulation of private assets, starting that process sooner rather than later likely would help smooth the transition to longer-term fiscal balance.”

Later, after his mistake was plainly obvious, he tried to spin his way out of it.

When Fed chief Alan Greenspan acknowledged last week that he’d been wrong to expect tax cuts to produce budget surpluses, he cast his mistake as part of a collective, unavoidable error. “It turns out that we were all wrong, ” he told the Senate Special Committee on Aging. It was not just the belief of the Fed and the tax-hating Republicans, but “an almost universal expectation amongst experts” that cutting taxes for the wealthy would generate more government revenue.

Of course, as Hillary Clinton reminded him, “Just for the record, we were not all wrong, but many people were wrong.”

If Greenspan doesn’t want to be called a “hack,” he’ll have to stop acting like one.

more...

EDIT: Google lists 12,600 links referencing "tinkle down economics". Google also asks "Did you mean to search for: trickle down economics"

So sad
I'm glad.

:nopity:

12:37
Dow 10,209.44 +19.96 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,984.99 +21.11 (+1.07%)
S&P 500 1,160.74 +1.38 (+0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 41.46 -0.38 (-0.91%)

NYSE Volume 1,008,190,000
Nasdaq Volume 961,225,000

12:30PM: Little changed since the last update, as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Meanwhile, the Labor Dept. earlier said that import prices rose 0.8% in April - the slowest pace in three months... While the figures were larger than expected, the data have reinforced easing inflationary pressures as crude oil futures have fallen more than 16% from their record high of $57.27/bbl on April 1... NYSE Adv/Dec 1542/1576, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1730/1345

Dow 10,184.16 -5.32 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,980.46 +16.58 (+0.84%)
S&P 500 1,157.62 -1.74 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.140 -0.44 (-1.05%)

NYSE Volume 1,173,586,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,109,057,000

1:00PM: Sellers show some resolve, halving recent gains on the blue chip indices... While continued weakness in Energy and Materials stocks has contributed to limited upside momentum in the broader market, selling pressure throughout the more influential Financial sector (-0.4%) has provided the bulk of uncertainty... Financials have been weak all day after Smith Barney trimmed its Q2 earnings estimates on Morgan Stanley (MWD 48.52 -0.88), Goldman Sachs (GS 98.30 -1.92) and Lehman Brothers (LEH 87.43 -0.42), warning that "revenue weakness in the second quarter is across the board."...NYSE Adv/Dec 1421/1722, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1660/1406

Dow 10,162.30 -27.18 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 1,978.47 +14.59 (+0.74%)
S&P 500 1,155.44 -3.92 (-0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.125 -0.59 (-1.41%)

NYSE Volume 1,332,849,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,240,353,000

2:00PM: Stocks continue to reverse course as market internals turn bearish... As reflected in the A/D line, decliners on the NYSE hold a 19 to 12 advantage over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq outpace advancing issues by a slim 16 to 15 margin... While the Nasdaq has shown resilience amid widespread buying efforts, the Dow and S&P have continued to deteriorate, recently failing to find support near 10165 and 1157, respectively... NYSE Adv/Dec 1294/1901, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1602/1505

idjuts :eyes:

Dow 10,099.11 -90.37 (-0.89%)
Nasdaq 1,969.55 +5.67 (+0.29%) :eyes:
S&P 500 1,149.04 -10.32 (-0.89%)
10-Yr Bond 4.110 -0.74 (-1.77%)

NYSE Volume 1,523,661,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,398,662,000

They have been working so hard lately, maybe their jobs got outsourced?


This means pixie in chinese

Dow 10,087.73 -101.75 (-1.00%)
Nasdaq 1,965.90 +2.02 (+0.10%) :eyes:
S&P 500 1,148.25 -11.11 (-0.96%)
10-Yr Bond 4.106 -0.78 (-1.86%)

NYSE Volume 1,660,974,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,496,845,000

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Dow 10,121.88 -67.60 (-0.66%)
Nasdaq 1,973.47 +9.59 (+0.49%) :eyes:
S&P 500 1,152.61 -6.75 (-0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 4.113 -0.71 (-1.70%)

NYSE Volume 1,745,005,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,561,402,000

3:00PM: More of the same as sellers show no signs of slowing heading into the final hour of trading... On the Dow, 23 out of 30 components now trade lower, as the index is off roughly 1.0% for the day... Alcoa (AA 26.21 -1.34) has paced the way lower, adding a 4.9% drubbing to yesterday's 3.0% decline, while a stronger dollar has also weighed on ExxonMobil (XOM 53.81 -1.01)... But a 1.8% decline on the latter has been somewhat modest compared to the 4.3% sell-off that accounted for nearly one fifth of the Dow's decline yesterday...

Even DuPont (DD 45.92 -0.65), which was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at J.P. Morgan has lost more than 1.0%... Intel (INTC 25.10 +0.26), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 20.24 +0.09) and Microsoft (MSFT 25.18 +0.18), however, have been three bright spots benefiting from Dell's encouraging guidance...NYSE Adv/Dec 943/2297, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1212/1914

wing-ed monkeys appear

Gov't sponsored transactions to keep it above 10k?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={71C60DED-3A3D-4940-A006-C0AB09CD9B1C}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - President Bush said a surging real estate market could be enhanced even further if Congress passes a tax credit aimed at encouraging homebuilders to target middle class families.

"To boost housing sales even more, Congress needs to pass my single-family homeownership tax credit," Bush told a meeting of the National Association of Realtors on Friday.

Bush said the credit would increase the supply of affordable single-family homes by as many as 50,000 each, with the aim of increasing the supply of affordable homes by 7 million over the next 10 years.

The proposal would grant a tax credit to firms that build affordable housing and sell it to middle-class buyers. The credit would cost around $2.5 billion over five years.

Some policymakers are weighing whether the housing market could be showing signs of speculation that marks an investment bubble.

...more...

1200 sq. ft., 2BR, 1BA, no basement, no garage?

750 square feet with an outhouse

Where do I sign?!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BFFE66C98%2D2AD5%2D48B5%2DBE41%2DF0E3513D2EC4%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

Some consumers are enjoying their tax breaks. I don't think these people's confidence is down, which makes the CC # even worse than it looks. IMHO

"We were pleased to see sales and transaction growth in every price strata, with even a single-digit increase in the entry-level strata below $500," Mark Aaron, vice president of investor relations said. "However, the most meaningful growth was in diamond jewelry at higher price levels."

Indeed, the company said sales of diamond rings over 3 karats - called "statement" rings -- are running strong as are sales of diamond-encrusted "celebration" rings that run from $5,000 to $12,000 a piece. It helped too that Tiffany raised prices on selective components - diamonds, gold, silver - to cover rising costs of the elements.

...

Sales for the quarter ended April 30 rose 12% to $509.9 million from $457 million in last year's first quarter, and ahead of the average forecast of analysts for $494.1 million in sales.

U.S. retail sales increased 14% and same-store sales, or sales generated at stores open at least a year, rose 11%. That more than made up for sluggishness in Japan, where net sales tumbled 5% and same-store sales tumbled 10%.

that we have become a have/have not society. the gradual evaporation of the middle class.

to keep it that high.

Have a Great Weekend Marketeers! :hi: