STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 18 May

-cut-

Conclusion

Last week (5-6-05) we said: "During last week, the technical condition of the market improved rapidly, which is clearly illustrated by the sharp rise in the Quantifiers. At the same time all the indices reached resistance, and the Quantifiers reached the zero line. In bull phases at similar junctions, the indices are able to break above resistance, and the Quantifiers turn positive. In bear phases, the indices fall apart at resistance, and the Quantifiers are rejected at the zero line. Therefore, for next week we can expect either a break-out as shown in scenario #1, or a rejection at resistance and a downside reversal, as shown in scenario #2. Thus, a close above resistance, the action would imply that scenario #1 is in play; on the other hand, if the indices hang around resistance for 2-3 trading days, and then they begin to move lower, the action would imply that scenario #2 is in play.

(Current) Last week the SP reversed at resistance, however, NASDAQ continued on, and it is about to test resistance this week. In the meantime, we have indicators close to the zero line, while getting conflicting signals from others. For example, we got a buy, a neutral, and a sell signal, all for NASDAQ, depending upon which timing tool you're looking at! Obviously, you want to take a position when there is a little more agreement among indicators, and now is not the time. Usually, we get such a divergence in signals and readings when there is an important change taking place under the surface. The markets have been declining for six months, so either the decline is going to accelerate, or we are witnessing the early signs of a trend reversal, from down to up.

The overall technical picture is more weak than it is strong, and fundamentally the market is already fully valued, so we don't have a whole lot to be bullish about. At the same time with support holding, we can't be too bearish, either! For next week, we need to pay attention to the SP; NASDAQ won't go very far if the SP breaks down! Ideally, for the bulls to have a chance, the SP ought not to close below 1145, although 1135 could also do the job. If the SP closes below 1145, it would imply that the odds favor trouble ahead. A subsequent close below 1135 would provide confirmation that there is more trouble on the way, and we should expect the 1100 level to be tested before any meaningful rally takes place.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 86.24 Change +0.03 (+0.03%)

Majors at a Standstill

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1135&Itemid=39

Trying hard to replace watching paint dry as the new sport of boredom, the FX market registered yet another listless night of action with all the majors receding slightly against the dollar. UK was the most data intensive region of the night as unemployment claims climbed to 8.1K – higher than the 2.8K expected clearly indicating that UK economic growth is slowing.To add insult to injury for pound bulls, for the first time since January Paul Tucker the most hawkish member of the MPC voted to keep UK rates on hold rather than raise them. None of the news had much impact on the downtrodden pound which has already sold off more than 900 points in a month.

In Japan, news was decidedly better as Bankruptcies declined by –23.5%, the 31st consecutive monthly decline. The number actually fell below 1000 cases for the 1st time in 6 years. We cannot help but feel that the structural improvement in Japan’s corporate assets will eventually increase the appetite for Japanese equities which should ultimately be bullish for the yen. Up to now the pair has not responded to the fundamental data trading back to the 108 figure, but if the news continues to improve the market will be hard pressed to ignore it much longer.

...more...

Dollar hits 7-month highs on rate outlook

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=8527240&src=rss/businessNews

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar hit seven-month highs against an index of currencies on Wednesday after U.S. inflation data in the previous session reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would continue to raise rates steadily.

The U.S. unit also held near recent seven-month peaks versus the euro and one-month highs against the yen.

It was supported after a hotly awaited U.S. Treasury report released on Tuesday said China did not use its currency to gaining an unjust trade advantage in the latter half of 2004.

The dollar also hit a six-month high against sterling as a string of weak economic data has led many traders to bet that the Bank of England's next move on interest rates could be down, not up as previously expected.

"There is a lot of momentum that is positive for the dollar at the moment," said Steven Saywell, chief currency strategist at Citigroup.

"The market is concentrating on dollar-positive news and ignoring dollar-bearish news."

...more...

China rejects U.S. currency criticism
U.S. Treasury could name Beijing 'manipulative trade partner'

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/BUSINESS/05/18/china.yuan/

(CNN) -- Beijing has rejected U.S. criticism that its currency policy has turned China into a "manipulative trade partner" and that the yuan should quickly be revaluated.

Chinese Commerce Minister Bo Xilai said Wednesday that those charges, made by the U.S. Treasury Department a day earlier, were unfounded.

"I believe they are not reasonable," Bo told Reuters.

<snip>

The low prices, critics say, put unfair pressure on U.S. manufacturers, who cannot compete on the "China price" of goods such as textiles, electronics, and other manufactured goods. (Squal-Mart anyone?)

<snip>

Wei said accusations that China was deliberately holding down the yuan were groundless and told the United States to "put its own house in order before blaming others" for its trade deficit.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

Last trade 86.13 Change -0.08 (-0.09%)

Settle 86.21 Settle Time 23:36

Open 86.28 Previous Close 86.21

High 86.41 Low 86.13

Last tick: 2005-05-18 08:30:14 ET
30-min delayed quote.

Last trade 86.00 Change -0.21 (-0.24%)

Settle 86.21 Settle Time 23:36

Open 86.28 Previous Close 86.21

High 86.41 Low 85.96

Last tick: 2005-05-18 11:39:13 ET
30-min delayed quote.

:wow: I wonder where Pimco's Bill Gross got his crystal ball - 'cuz he says "there is little threat of faster inflation through 2010"

:eyes:

Last trade 85.95 Change -0.26 (-0.30%)

Settle 86.21 Settle Time 23:36

Open 86.28 Previous Close 86.21

High 86.41 Low 85.88

Last tick: 2005-05-18 11:59:55 ET
30-min delayed quote.

Achieving a lower low - perhaps PimCo's Bill Gross can predict a time when there is just free money floating from Bernanke's helicopter.

:hi: Hope you have a great day!!!!!!!!

:hi:

I'll only be here this am - have to run off this afternoon and handle real life :D

It certainly is an upsidedown world in the markets - :shrug:

Hang in there - popcorn's going to come in handy :popcorn:

7:13am 05/18/05 BUSH ADMIN CONSIDERS DELAYING GREENSPAN'S EXIT: WAPO

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B0220D2F4-CD12-4C6A-9944-AC9067278B57%7D&

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The Bush administration is considering encouraging Alan Greenspan, 79, to stay on as chairman of the Federal Reserve for at least a few months beyond the Jan. 31 expiration of his term, the Washington Post reported Wednesday, citing sources who were told of the possibility. That would give the White House more time to broaden the search for possible successors, looking beyond the academic and policy worlds to the corporate world, the report said. The law allows a Fed chairman to continue beyond the expiration of his term until a successor is confirmed by the Senate, the report added.

(edited to add link and blurb)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38490.3542622801-835552280&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The underlying rate of U.S. inflation was unchanged in April, the Labor Department said Wednesday. The consumer price index increased 0.5% in April, driven by a 4.5% gain in energy prices, the fastest increase in energy prices in more than two years. Food prices jumped 0.7%, but other price increases were moderate. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, was unchanged in April, the lowest rate of underlying inflation since November 2003. Economists were expecting the CPI to rise 0.4% in April after a 0.6% gain in March. The core rate was expected to rise 0.2% in April after 0.4% in March.

I guess the buffoons that cook these numbers think that no one eats, drives a car or heats their homes - we must all be Amish :argh:

8:30am 05/18/05 U.S. APRIL APPAREL PRICES FALL 0.6%

8:30am 05/18/05 U.S. APRIL MEDICAL CARE PRICES UP 0.2%

8:30am 05/18/05 U.S. APRIL HOUSING PRICES UP 0.3%

8:30am 05/18/05 U.S. APRIL FOOD PRICES UP 0.7%

8:30am 05/18/05 U.S. CORE CPI UP 2.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR

8:30am 05/18/05 U.S. CPI UP 3.5% YEAR-ON-YEAR

8:30am 05/18/05 U.S. APRIL CPI ENERGY PRICES UP 4.5%, 2-YR HIGH

8:30am 05/18/05 U.S. APRIL CORE CPI FLAT VS. 0.2% GAIN EXPECTED

8:30am 05/18/05 U.S. APRIL CPI UP 0.5% VS. 0.4% EXPECTED

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B7B7573D7%2D5144%2D4181%2DA3C8%2D9A6B3B3800AE%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

Average real weekly wages, adjusted for inflation, increased 0.2% in April. Real weekly wages are down 0.3% in the past year.

In April, several worrisome inflation trends moderated.

Housing prices, which account for 42% of the CPI, rose 0.3% in April after rising 0.5% in March. Hotel prices fell 1.2% in April after rising by 5% cumulatively in February and March, likely the result of an early Super Bowl and an early Easter.

Homeownership costs rose 0.1%, while rents increased 0.3%. Homeownership costs are not measured by home sales prices, which have been soaring, but by looking at rents for comparable homes. Many analysts believe the CPI seriously underestimates housing inflation.

<snip>

Transportation costs increased 1.8%, mostly due to fuel costs. New car prices fell 0.1%, while air fares rose 3.6%, the fastest increase in nearly five years.

Energy costs increased 4.5%. Gasoline prices rose 6.4%, natural gas prices increased 5.6% and fuel oil prices rose 4.6%.

Food prices rose 0.7%, as vegetable prices increased 7.9%.

...more...

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=8525638

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices inched up past $49 a barrel on Wednesday amid light fund buying after last week's slump, but Saudi Arabia's pledge to keep its taps open and an anticipated build in U.S. crude stocks capped gains.

U.S. crude rose 22 cents to $49.19 a barrel, extending a 36-cent rise in New York on Tuesday. Crude on Monday hit a three-month low of $47.60 a barrel, the bottom of a more than 6 percent week-long decline.

London's Brent crude were up 26 cents at $49.60 a barrel.

Recent light gains were pinned to limited short-covering by hedge funds, who have been broadly selling the market since oil reached an all-time record of $58.28 a barrel in early April.

They may be hedging their bets in case U.S. crude oil inventories -- forecast by analysts to have risen 800,000 barrels last week -- show any bullish surprises. If stockpiles were to rise, this would be the 13th in the past 14 weeks, with stocks already at six-year highs.

...more...

Oil Inventories from the DOE and API will be reported today.

10:32am 05/18/05 DOE: U.S. DISTILLATE SUPPLIES DOWN 200,000 BARRELS

10:31am 05/18/05 DOE: U.S. GASOLINE SUPPLIES UP 1.1 MILLION BARRELS

10:30am 05/18/05 DOE: U.S. CRUDE SUPPLIES UP 4.3 MILLION BARRELS

11:00am 05/18/05 API: DISTILLATE SUPPLIES DOWN 1.8 MILLION BARRELS

10:59am 05/18/05 API: GASOLINE SUPPLIES DOWN 317,000 BARRELS

10:58am 05/18/05 API: U.S. CRUDE SUPPLIES UP 2.5 MILLION BARRELS

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=766115

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (Reuters) - The jury that ordered Morgan Stanley to pay Ronald Perelman $604 million in damages heard arguments on Tuesday over how much more to tack on to punish the Wall Street firm for misleading the billionaire investor in a business deal that went sour.

The punitive-damages phase of the trial was expected to conclude with closing arguments on Wednesday morning. Under Florida law, punitive damages can amount to three times the actual damages.

An expert witness called by the plaintiff told the jury Morgan Stanley could afford to pay out another $1.8 billion.

A Morgan Stanley <MWD.N> lawyer told the jury in West Palm Beach, Florida, that the $604 million was punishment enough. Attorney Mark Hansen said the firm had suffered a "great black eye" and a blow to its reputation with Monday's damages award, and anything more "would not be justice."

<snip>

"Since you can't spank a corporation, since you can't send it to bed without supper or restrict it for the weekend or for that matter send it to jail, the only way you can punish a corporation is by extracting from its pocket book a sum of money," Scarola said.

...more...

They woulda coulda shoulda taken that $20 Million settlement offer in 2003.

http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2005/05/18/news/local/news04.txt

excerpt:

When asked specific questions regarding the process that led to the layoffs, Moler hung up on a Missoulian reporter.

About six weeks ago, Loran got a pretty good clue that something odd was happening at Molerway. Company officials announced a $1.7 million equipment upgrade, he said. Men in suits came through the various facilities and inspected equipment. The men were "bankers," employees were told.

"Those guys weren't bankers. They were from MTS Freight. Of course, hindsight is always 20-20," he said.

<snip>

With no prior warning, the employees had no chance to prepare for the shock. Nor were support systems notified. Wolf Ametsbichler of Missoula Job Service said the first he heard about the layoff was when employees came into his office.

Nor did Molerway offer employees any pay. They would get paid for any outstanding vacation time, Loran said, and the possibility of a severance package was "hung out as a carrot," available to those who cooperated with the company's new owner.

...more...

http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=23310

NET PROFITS for HP rose by 9.3 per cent to $966 million for its latest financial quarter but underlying trends in its different divisions must be a worry for newly fledged CEO Mark Hurd.

Hurd told analysts that more layoffs of employees are in the offing in its current quarter, meaning HP will have to put aside $100 million for the redundancies.

The printing and imaging group showed an operating profit fall of 15 per cent, worth $814 million compared to $952 million in the same period last year. The 2000 people who took voluntary redundancy during the current quarter cost HP $71 million.

...more...

An estimate is somewhere between 7,500 and 15,000 layoffs in the works.

editing to add the following:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF69AE34B-31A2-4249-865A-BF7D811776D9%7D&siteid=google

excerpt:

"We believe a significant asset sale, spin out or divestiture is unlikely," analysts at Deutsche Bank said. "H-P has already taken 1,900 employees out of IPG and we believe at least another 10,000 in cuts are likely through-out the company."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38490.3218716319-835549530&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Dime Community Bancshares said Wednesday it liquidated $276 million in securities, representing about 48% of its total investment portfolio, to take advantage of "a good opportunity for the company to benefit from the current flat yield curve." The parent company of Brooklyn's Dime Community Bank said it will take a charge of 9 cents a share for the sale in the current quarter. The Thomson First Call average analysts' estimate for the bank's earnings per share in the current quarter is for 28 cents. On Tuesday the company's stock rose 6 cents to $15.44.

curious :eyes:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/17/AR2005051701238.html

The timing could not have been more apt. On the eve of a titanic partisan clash in the Senate, eggheads of the left and right got together yesterday to warn both parties that they are ignoring the country's most pressing problem: that the United States is turning into Argentina.

<snip>

With startling unanimity, they agreed that without some combination of big tax increases and major cuts in Medicare, Social Security and most other spending, the country will fall victim to the huge debt and soaring interest rates that collapsed Argentina's economy and caused riots in its streets a few years ago.

"The only thing the United States is able to do a little after 2040 is pay interest on massive and growing federal debt," Walker said. "The model blows up in the mid-2040s. What does that mean? Argentina."

"All true," Sawhill, a budget official in the Clinton administration, concurred.

"To do nothing," Butler added, "would lead to deficits of the scale we've never seen in this country or any major in industrialized country. We've seen them in Argentina. That's a chilling thought, but it would mean that."

Each of the three had a separate slide show, but the numbers and forecasts were interchangeable.

...more...

I can't believe it's taken this long for anyone to see the writing on the wall.

would know something's up - and specifically - that it has everything to do with our national debt burden. Not I, but others here deserve to go pro.

I would have joined the conversation here yesterday if our network had not experienced big problems. Seems like they're fixed.

Ozy :hi:

:donut: :donut: :donut:

I am so amazed that these so-called "experts" are so freakin' stupid. My f-in-l had a sign on his desk: Stupid is forever - Ignorance can be fixed

On January 27, 2002, the United States of America's National Debt is $5,932,251,321,548.21 (Five Trillion, Nine Hundred Thirty-Two Billion, Two Hundred Fifty-One Million, Three Hundred Twenty-One Thousand, Five Hundred Forty-Eight Dollars and twenty-one cents). The citizens total 286,126,531 (Two Hundred Eighty-Six Million, One Hundred Twenty-Six Thousand, Five Hundred and Thirty-One). Simply put, each person's share of the debt is $20,732.96 (Twenty Thousand, Seven Hundred Thirty-Two Dollars and ninety-six cents). We could stop the mathematics there for the sake of convenience, but it would be too misleading.

If you look at the Debt Clock today, here are the numbers:



The estimated population of the United States is 296,122,825
so each citizen's share of this debt is $26,226.39.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$1.68 billion per day since September 30, 2004

Last week, our feckless non-representing Congressional representatives surreptitiously upped the debt ceiling to almost $9 Trillion.

It really does not taken Einsteinian capabilities to figure out the curve here. :(

briefing.com

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. Stage remains set for stocks to open on an upbeat note, as the futures market still holds a positive bias... Meanwhile, as yields on the 10-yr note (4.05%) continue to fall following the encouraging read on core CPI and bullish comments from Pimco's Bill Gross, interest-rate sensitive areas (i.e. Financial, Utilities) should be in focus today... Chip stocks should also garner some attention ahead of Intel's (INTC) annual stockholder meeting (11:30 ET)

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5. Futures trade gets a boost following better than expected CPI data, and now suggests a slightly higher open for the indices... Total CPI came in up 0.5% (consensus +0.4%) but core CPI has checked in unchanged, suggesting a favorable read on inflation... Treasurys have rallied amid eased inflationary pressures, as the 10-yr note, which was up 1 tick prior to the release, is now up 9 ticks yielding 4.07%

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a lackluster open for the cash market as investors await key inflation data... At 8:30 ET, April CPI (consensus +0.4%) and core CPI (consensus +0.2%) will be released... Meanwhile, technology should be in focus after Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Applied Materials (AMAT) both beat analysts' expectations by a penny but guided Q3 estimates below consensus

ino.com

The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing near 1494.46. Stochastics and the RSI are but overbought hinting that a short- term top might be in or is near. If June extends this month's rally, the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1524.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1469.10 would signal that the short covering rally off April's low has come to an end. The June NASDAQ 100 was down 2.00 pts. at 1492 as of 5:311 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally but remains above the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1173.41. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish following Tuesday's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends Tuesday's rally, the 50% retracement level of the March-April decline crossing at 1185 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1147.20 would open the door for a possible test of April's low crossing at 1135.90 later this spring. The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.00 pts. at 1174.20 as of 5:35 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning.

9:13am 05/18/05 UNIFIY CHARGE ON DEBT OWED BY COLLINS & AIKMAN

9:12am 05/18/05 UNIFI PLANS $8.2M CHARGE ON COLLINS & AIKMAN BANKRUPTCY

Unifi to take $8.2M charge

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38490.3886503588-835555743&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Unifi, Inc. (UFI) on Wednesday said it'll take a fourth-quarter charge of $8.2 million for money it's owed by Collins & Aikman Corp., which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Unifi said it expects to conduct business with Collins & Aikman during the company's Chapter 11 case. Shares fell 3 cents to $3.22 on Tuesday.

(added link and blurb on edit)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38490.3908725694-835555915&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Beverly Enterprises Inc. (BEV) said Wednesday that the initial round of bids to acquire the company was "very robust," and that it identified several groups of potential investors to participate in a second round. The Fort Smith, Ark.-based healthcare services provider said it couldn't provide specific information regarding prices or financing arrangements, and cautioned that it's likely jobs will be cut once a deal is struck. Beverly's stock closed up 5 cents at $12.24 Tuesday.

I guess the need for bedpan changers will diminish as the ever-increasing poverty grips those that need healthcare.

Dow 10,385.82 +53.94 (+0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,012.80 +8.65 (+0.43%)
S&P 500 1,179.11 +5.31 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.067 -0.50 (-1.21%)

NYSE Volume 49,911,000
Nasdaq Volume 75,319,000

Dow 10,379.02 +47.14 (+0.46%)
Nasdaq 2,011.04 +6.89 (+0.34%)
S&P 500 1,179.83 +6.03 (+0.51%)
10-Yr Bond 4.060 -0.57 (-1.38%)

NYSE Volume 148,548,000
Nasdaq Volume 155,715,000

9:40AM: Strong follow through seen in stocks, as the market opens higher following tame inflation data... Core CPI, which excludes volatile energy prices, remained unchanged for the first time in 1 1/2 years, versus an expected 0.2% rise after a 0.4% increase in March... While the total CPI checked in up 0.5%, slightly above an expected 0.4% rise - due to the largest (4.5%) gain in energy prices in roughly two years - the more influential core rate has eased inflation concerns at the consumer level and placated worries about the Fed's need to hike rates at a faster than "measured" pace...

Dow 10,393.08 +61.20 (+0.59%)
Nasdaq 2,012.60 +8.45 (+0.42%)
S&P 500 1,180.27 +6.47 (+0.55%)
10-Yr Bond 40.46 -0.71 (-1.72%)

NYSE Volume 323,044,000
Nasdaq Volume 312,357,000

10:00AM: Equities still on the offensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains positive... The Materials sector has paced the way higher, benefiting from strength in Paper and Steel as well as a weaker dollar... Energy has also been strong amid rising oil prices ahead of the EIA's weekly oil report (10:30 ET) - crude oil inventories (consensus +1.0 mln), gasoline supplies (consensus +987K) and distillates (consensus +1.0 mln)...
Interest-rate sensitive areas like Financial and Utilities have also been strong, getting a boost from falling bond yields, while Airline stocks have climbed following analyst upgrades on DAL and JBLU... Technology has shown relative strength, as gains in Hardware have offset modest weakness in Semiconductor...NYSE Adv/Dec 1965/482, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1669/689

http://www.guardian.co.uk/argentina/story/0,11439,623174,00.html



Thursday December 20, 2001

The death toll from widespread rioting in Argentina rose to 16 today and the finance minister accused of leading the country into financial ruin resigned.

Police said that 16 people had died in violence that erupted last night and continued for a second day today.

The Argentinian government has declared a state of emergency to crack down on unrest after thousands of people took to the streets to protest at the apparent collapse of the economy.

Police said that as many as 20,000 people took part in an orgy of looting in the capital Buenos Aires and other towns.

Many of the dead were shot by shopkeepers trying to protect their stock.

Riot police firing tear gas dispersed overnight protests outside the seat of government. Banks and restaurants were destroyed and the Israeli embassy in the capital city was attacked.

<snip>

Mr de la Rua accepted the resignation of his economy minister, Domingo Cavallo, who introduced a raft of austerity measures that sparked the worst violence seen in the country for many years. He is the third economy minister to resign in the past year.

...more...


Food Riots, Argentina

Richard Daughty, the angriest guy in economics
email: scgcjs@gte.net

-- I made a solemn vow to sober up, and this time I really mean it, when I read that Total Fed Credit did NOT, again, climb, it did NOT, again, remain constant, but last week it went down by $3.2 billion! Naturally, I assumed that my bloodshot eyes are deceiving me or that I have finally killed the few remaining neurons in my brain that still work. Can this slowdown in Fed credit be true, and I can get back to a life of drunken dissolution with a clear conscience? Time will tell.

And what is the significance of Fed Credit? Because this is the magical and fabled Money From Thin Air, which the Fed, by merely pushing a button, distributes to banks, which use it to make loans, and when the bank makes a loan, real money is thus created, not from thin air, but from the increase in their reserves, which came from the increase in Total Fed Credit, which you realize DID, if you have been paying attention, come from thin air. So, without all this new money from thin air, the money supply has, umm, stagnated.

Mark Lundeen, a guy who literally drips data, sent me a graph showing the growth of Fed Credit since 1938. Back then, even after that arch-communist FDR was installing the socialist state in America, it was about $10 billion or so, and it was gradually rising and rising, faster and faster. Somewhere in the middle 70's, it finally grew to $100 billion, but it kept on increasing, faster and faster. Then, coinciding with the horrid Alan Greenspan being appointed as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, it really got going. Now it is at $783 billion.

Sure enough, when we take a look at the money supply, as measured by the M's, we notice that they all fell, too, although for reasons completely different than why The Mogambo fell down, which was because I was going to unsteadily go over and finish off that bottle of tequila so that I would not be tempted to drink it. But the money supply probably fell because of a lot of reasons, mostly because more people were paying off their loans than were taking new on new ones. It was nothing to write home about, but it does merit the kind of attention that one pays to small clouds on the horizon, knowing that small clouds can grow to big clouds, and then suddenly you get pelted by wind and rain and your new portable radio gets all wet and is ruined, and nobody wants THAT! So it pays to keep an eye on these damn clouds.

(more)

http://worldnewstrust.org/modules/AMS/article.php?storyid=736

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38490.4573255208-835562083&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- As much as $192.5 billion could be refunded by financial and nonfinancial companies as a result of debt being either called or maturing by the end of 2005, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said Wednesday. An additional $206.9 billion is forecasted to be refunded in 2006, S&P said. Much of the refunding is due to the wave of refinancing and maturity lengthening that started back in 2001, S&P said. The forecasts were made in an article entitled titled "Outlook for Refunding of U.S. Financial and Nonfinancial Bonds."

Hey 54anickel! What are they talking about? :shrug:

Dow 10,408.88 +77.00 (+0.75%)
Nasdaq 2,017.87 +13.72 (+0.68%)
S&P 500 1,181.44 +7.64 (+0.65%)
10-Yr Bond 4.060 -0.57 (-1.38%)

NYSE Volume 691,860,000
Nasdaq Volume 630,071,000

11:00AM: Major indices spike to session highs, as oil prices fall following larger than expected builds in inventories... Crude oil futures ($48.20/bbl -$0.77), which were slightly higher ahead of the EIA's weekly oil report, trading near $49.30/bbl (+$0.33), have since turned negative and provided an additional boost to the market... The EIA reported that crude oil inventories rose 4.34 mln barrels (consensus +1.0 mln) and gasoline inventories rose 1.07 mln barrels (consensus +980K)... NYSE Adv/Dec 2428/586, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1860/851

10:30AM: Stock market climbs a bit higher, as the technology sector continues to strengthen... As the 7th most influential component in the S&P Technology Index - with a weighting of about 3.1% - Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 22.23 +0.68) has led the charge following strong Q2 earnings of $0.37 per share and expectations for restructuring efforts to cut costs... Even chip stocks have turned positive since the last update, but a 2.3% decline in shares of Applied Materials (AMAT 15.67 -0.37), following worse than expected Q3 guidance, continues to minimize gains on the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.2%).. NYSE Adv/Dec 2289/609, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1742/834

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38490.4689952662-835563101&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- The National Association of Securities Dealers said Wednesday that Hilary Shane, a hedge fund manager formerly registered with First New York Securities, has been fined $1.45 million and permanently barred from associating with any NASD-registered firm to settle NASD and SEC charges of fraud and insider trading. Regulators allege Shane committed insider trading and registration violations by short-selling securities of CompuDyne Corp. before the public announcement of a private investment in public equity (PIPE) offering. She neither admitted nor denied guilt in the matter.

11:10am 05/18/05 SEC: FUND MGR SHANE BARRED FROM BROKER-DEALER INDUSTRY

11:08am 05/18/05 SEC: HEDGE FUND MGR SHANE TO PAY $1M TO SETTLE CHARGES

11:07am 05/18/05 SEC CHARGES HEDGE FUND MGR HILARY SHANE W/INSIDER TRADE

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9428ABA3%2D1515%2D497F%2D8361%2D6E75D8649312%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

A PIPE is an offering where accredited investors -- those with at least $1 million -- are allowed to purchase stock in a public company, generally at a discount. The stock can only then be sold to the public after the shares are registered with the SEC.

Regulators found that Shane established a short position in security company Compudyne while in possession of material, non-public information and used the PIPE shares, once they were registered, to cover the short position.

"This case highlights that in addition to insider trading liability, investors in PIPE offerings must be mindful that they cannot execute short sales before the effective date of a resale registration statement and cover those short sales with shares from the PIPE offering," said Daniel Hawke, associate district administrator for enforcement in the SEC's Philadelphia office.

Additionally, the NASD found Shane made false statement to acquire the shares by saying she and a hedge she managed, FNY Millennium Partners, had no intention of distributing the shares.

...more...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B703FB230%2DB3A3%2D4A83%2DA6E0%2D80B0B09730D7%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Recent mergers among stock exchanges will enhance competition among markets and deliver benefits to investors, exchange executives told a Senate panel Wednesday.

"We believe that the merger of the New York Stock Exchange with Archipelago will help us compete head to head" with other exchanges around the world, New York Stock Exchange CEO John Thain told the Senate Banking Committee in prepared testimony.

"The merger with Archipelago (AX: news, chart, profile) promises to add to and enrich customer choices by introducing new platforms for new investment products that will include equities, options, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and bonds," Thain said.

<snip>

"The merger announcements raise questions about industry consolidation and competition, the future direction of our equities markets and the ultimate impact on investors," Shelby said in an opening statement.

...more...

How does removing competition promote competition?

:rofl:

have claimed to have.

I'm going bald from pulling my hair out!

:kick:

Dow 10,431.27 +99.39 (+0.96%)
Nasdaq 2,021.36 +17.21 (+0.86%)
S&P 500 1,182.76 +8.96 (+0.76%)
10-Yr Bond 4.065 -0.52 (-1.26%)

NYSE Volume 953,070,000
Nasdaq Volume 850,279,000

11:30AM: Stocks continue to hold their own and sport noticeable gains for the day... Also showing strong upside momentum have been Treasurys, as the 10-year note is up 12 ticks to yield 4.06% after an unexpected flat reading on core CPI lessened worries about more aggressive Fed tightening... Also providing a floor of buying support for bonds have been comments from Pimco's Bill Gross who believes 10-year yields may fall as low as 3% within five years since there is little threat of faster inflation through 2010...

Meanwhile, yields on the benchmark 10-year have only closed below 4.0% once (Feb. 9) in 2005... NYSE Adv/Dec 2398/681, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1872/897

12:17
Dow 10,457.72 +125.84 (+1.22%)
Nasdaq 2,025.84 +21.69 (+1.08%)
S&P 500 1,184.99 +11.19 (+0.95%)
10-Yr Bond 4.071% -0.05

NYSE Volume 1,034,885,000
Nasdaq Volume 928,195,000

Snow keeps pressure on China to revalue yuan

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38490.5106981366-835566788&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Bush administration kept up its pressure on China to revalue the yuan. In a speech to a steel industry group Wednesday, Treasury Secretary John Snow repeated his call for China to immediately adopt a more flexible currency. "Further delay would not only postpone adjustment in the Chinese and global economies, it would also add to the risks that are now building up," he said in his prepared remarks. Snow said a move by the Chinese would not be a "panacea" for global economic ailments, including the large U.S. trade deficit, but it would contribute to global stability. On Tuesday, Snow said China would likely be formally named as a "manipulator" of its currency if it doesn't act soon.

How many times does he say it before it becomes reality? :puke:

going on with the banks in China - or does he and he's attempting to force their demise?

This sh*t makes me nervous with the neo-con Wolfie at the IMF.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE8F1B96D%2DD760%2D4166%2D9FBF%2D5EBE8EFE5B3E%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar extended its losses Wednesday afternoon, after Treasury Secretary John Snow said he expects a Chinese currency adjustment in the next few months.

Snow's comments added to the pressure that set in after news that core consumer inflation was flat last month, data which undercut the argument that the Federal Reserve needs to switch to a more aggressive policy on interest-rate hikes.

The euro was last up 0.7% at $1.2679. The dollar fell 0.5% to 106.92 yen.

Snow told a steel industry group that he expects China to adjust its currency in the next few months.

"We are escalating the rhetoric and time is running out," Snow said.

The secretary's remarks came one day after the Treasury Department issued a report that gave China six months to take a concrete, large step toward a flexible exchange rate - but stopped short of making a formal finding that China manipulated the yuan for export advantage.

Snow's latest remarks to the steel group pressured the dollar "because yuan revaluation speculation is dollar-negative," said Mike Malpede, a Refco currency analyst.

It is widely assumed that when China loosens its policy, the yen and other Asian currencies are likely to rise and push down the dollar.

...more...

Well, Duh!

Last trade 85.83 Change -0.38 (-0.44%)

Settle 86.21 Settle Time 23:36

Open 86.28 Previous Close 86.21

High 86.41 Low 85.81

Last tick: 2005-05-18 13:14:13 ET
30-min delayed quote.

It seems to always tank badly if it gets near that point, so watch for a big ride downward tomorrow. Just intuition, nothing more.

Nature, not reason, determines its pattern. If anyone is in this market for the long haul, they are wasting their time and money.

One just needs to know where to look. If you are in the market for 15, 20, 25, 30 years these short term swings mean nothing.

GM chief economist says commodity prices have peaked

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38490.5433148148-835569644&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- G. Mustafa Mohatarem, the chief economist of General Motors Corp. (GM) , said Wednesday that commodity prices, including oil prices, have peaked and will move lower in coming months. "Most commodity prices have peaked," Mohatarem said in a discussion on the global economic outlook at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Mohatarem said demand has softened as a result of the higher commodity prices and "we are now getting the supply response." Mohatarem said overall domestic U.S. car sales have not been hurt by the higher price of gasoline. "People continue to buy cars," Mohatarem said. U.S. car companies are being hurt by the high value of the dollar and health care costs, he said.

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

It couldn't be the POS SUVs that you keep ramming down the consumers' throats! :argh:

Dow 10,458.17 +126.29 (+1.22%)
Nasdaq 2,030.38 +26.23 (+1.31%)
S&P 500 1,185.79 +11.99 (+1.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.075 -0.42 (-1.02%)

NYSE Volume 1,436,514,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,286,631,000

1:30PM: Major indices back off their best levels, but hold onto the bulk of today's gains amid spirited leadership from a number of blue chips... On the Dow, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 22.23 +0.68) has paced the way higher amid better than expected Q2 earnings and proposed restructuring initiatives... Also posting gains of more than 2.0% have been Alcoa (AA 27.98 +0.77) and DuPont (DD 48.19 +1.11), amid renewed buying interest in commodities, while financials like JP Morgan (JPM 35.99 +0.78) and Citigroup (C 47.95 +0.79) have benefited from the rally in bonds...

General Motors (GM 31.41 +0.56) has also surged after five of its vehicles won top marks in quality from J.D. Power & Associates... Of the three components under pressure, Merck (MRK 32.81 -0.20) has been the biggest laggard amid news that Pfizer's (PFE 28.41 +0.21) Celebrex has been the largest beneficiary of last month's withdrawal of Bextra...NYSE Adv/Dec 2579/664, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2132/821

1:00PM: Buyers remain in control of the action as a bullish bias remains firmly intact... Advancers on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq hold a more than 2 to 1 advantage over decliners while a more than 3 to 1 ratio of up to down volumes on both the Big Board and the Composite suggests an even more convincing sentiment behind today's broad-based move to the upside... Meanwhile, all three of the major indices have posted gains in excess of 1.0% and trade near 5-week highs, as the Dow has cleared its 50/200-day moving averages (10401/10386)...

The S&P has cleared its 50-day moving average but has found resistance near its April high of 1191 while the Nasdaq continues to vacillate near its March 15 close of 2034.98...


Gotta run - hold down the fort, ya'll :hi:

Dow 10,474.50 +142.62 (+1.38%)
Nasdaq 2,033.42 +29.27 (+1.46%)
S&P 500 1,186.63 +12.83 (+1.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.068% -0.05

NYSE Volume 1,874,087,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,663,489,000

Stocks Up for 3rd Straight Session on Benign Inflation Data; Dow Rises More Than 130 Points

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street rallied for a third straight session Wednesday as a benign reading of consumer inflation alleviated a key source of concern among investors.
Declining oil prices and a positive earnings report from Dow Jones industrial Hewlett-Packard Co. also lifted the market, with the Dow climbing more than 130 points.

nvestors were focused on the consumer price index data released early Wednesday, particularly after a report on Tuesday showed an unexpected spike in prices at the wholesale level, which had put a damper on stocks early Tuesday.

"The market was oversold a couple weeks ago, and now we're seeing relief on the two things keeping the market down: rates and oil," said Russ Koesterich, senior portfolio manager at Barclays Global Investments in San Francisco.

"The nice thing about the inflation data is that it shows that higher prices aren't getting passed on to the consumer," Koesterich said.

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050518/wall_street.html?.v=19

how is that good for business and stock prices??? wouldn't this make profits fall?

:sarcasm:

And since we are only looking at core CPI - we are able to dismiss any ugly thoughts of food and energy costs. We can spend more money on doodahs if we think that food and gas are free.

The statement "The nice thing about the inflation data is that it shows that higher prices aren't getting passed on to the consumer," Koesterich said" just shows how out of touch news reporting has become.

It's jumping along at nice click but as long as it is being reported as only slight everybody can stay happy.
What a weird strange world we live in :crazy:

3:43
Dow 10,465.63 +133.75 (+1.29%)
Nasdaq 2,029.77 +25.62 (+1.28%)
S&P 500 1,185.85 +12.05 (+1.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.068% -0.05

NYSE Volume 2,021,502,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,792,002,000

3:30PM: Market shows no signs of slowing going into the close as the indices appear poised to lock in the best three-day rally since the November elections... Above average volume at both the NYSE and the Nasdaq, coupled with bullish market internals, have provided some conviction behind the broad-based move to the upside... However, while the Dow has now moved more than 100 points (either up or down) in 12 out of the last 26 sessions, the only follow-through interest after a triple-digit gain on the blue-chip index (since April 13) has occurred to the downside... NYSE Adv/Dec 2565/733, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2187/867

http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Up-to-the-minute graph (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDY&v=i)

Current TSE:




2005-04-18 Monday, April 18 0.801154 USD
2005-04-19 Tuesday, April 19 0.805867 USD
2005-04-20 Wednesday, April 20 0.807233 USD
2005-04-21 Thursday, April 21 0.807494 USD
2005-04-22 Friday, April 22 0.810241 USD
2005-04-25 Monday, April 25 0.808277 USD
2005-04-26 Tuesday, April 26 0.802439 USD
2005-04-27 Wednesday, April 27 0.802246 USD
2005-04-28 Thursday, April 28 0.799488 USD
2005-04-29 Friday, April 29 0.795672 USD
2005-05-02 Monday, May 2 0.796686 USD
2005-05-03 Tuesday, May 3 0.797385 USD
2005-05-04 Wednesday, May 4 0.799872 USD
2005-05-05 Thursday, May 5 0.803342 USD
2005-05-06 Friday, May 6 0.80457 USD
2005-05-09 Monday, May 9 0.80795 USD
2005-05-10 Tuesday, May 10 0.808211 USD
2005-05-11 Wednesday, May 11 0.801667 USD
2005-05-12 Thursday, May 12 0.800448 USD
2005-05-13 Friday, May 13 0.792079 USD
2005-05-16 Monday, May 16 0.787216 USD
2005-05-17 Tuesday, May 17 0.78964 USD
2005-05-18 Wednesday, May 18 0.792519 USD






It's just been all too depressing to even bother posting a Loonie Watch but it's actually starting to show some signs of life.

Most of the uncertain with the loonie had to do with Harper rattling the cage about bringing down the government. With Belinda Stornach's move to the Liberals, Bay Street and the international market is suddenly seeing some signs of incipient stability.

On other fronts, the CBC is reporting a strong economy not only in the traditional resources sector, but also in manufacturing.

The Loonie may rise again!!!

Dow 10,464.45 +132.57 (+1.28%)
Nasdaq 2,030.65 +26.50 (+1.32%)
S&P 500 1,185.56 +11.76 (+1.00%)
10-Yr Bond 40.68 -0.49 (-1.19%)
NYSE Volume 2,245,268,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,953,920,000

Close: Stocks closed near session highs, as tame inflation data, plummeting oil prices and a rally in bonds prompted broad-based buying efforts that resulted in the best three-day rally since last November... Above average volume at both the NYSE and the Nasdaq, coupled with bullish market internals and arguably some short-covering, also provided some much needed conviction behind today's rally... April core CPI, which excluded the largest (4.5%) gain in energy prices in roughly two years, remained unchanged for the first time in 1 1/2 years versus an expected 0.2% rise...
While the total CPI checked in up 0.5%, slightly above an expected 0.4% rise, the more important core rate helped investors put to rest the worst of inflation fears at the consumer level and alleviated concerns about the Fed's need to hike interest rates at a faster than "measured" pace... While one month of data is not enough to set a trend, an average of last month's disappointing 0.4% rise and April's flat figure arguably suggests that inflation is under control and that average increases of 0.2% in core rate in the months ahead should not be all that daunting...

Also helping nine out of ten economic sectors trade higher was a 3.5% sell-off in oil prices, as crude oil futures closed at $47.25/bbl (-$1.72) following a larger than expected build in weekly oil inventories... Crude oil inventories rose 4.34 mln barrels (consensus +1.0 mln) - the highest levels since May 1999 and 12% higher than a year ago - and gasoline inventories rose 1.07 mln barrels (consensus +980K)... Reports that U.S. refineries last week operated at 94%, up 2.2% from a week earlier, also contributed to oil weakness...

Have a great evening and see you tomorrow! :hi:

Stocks in the US and Europe have been extending gains but the Asian indices are looking decidedly sickly. The attached link compares the performance of the Dow, Tokyo's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index.

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5EN225&t=5d&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=%5EHSI,%5EDJI&a=v&p=s


I still think the market in 2005 is only a place for the brave or the foolish.