STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 24 May

I like the oil and when Bush took office market number things that you have added to the page. Keep up the good work.

and good morning! :donut: :donut: :donut:

With this steady stream of information, perhaps the ilusory bubble will be popped that Republicans are good for the economy and stock markets.

Ozy :hi:

:donut: Ozy, it will take more than logic and reason to do away with that perception (like SS 'reform',a market, or depressed economy that hits them in the pocketbook-or maybe drafting their kids or grandkids for some Commander CooCoo Banananas foolish foreign intrigue). All the hoopla yesterday and we only made it to just under what the market was when he took office...not counting the surplus er I mean debt. Whooptedo..Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

:hi:

always good to see the interested amatures and lurkers:hi:

FUNDAMENTAL THOUGHTS REGARDING TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Why do chartists chart and what is technical analysis?

Technical analysis is the examination of past price movements to forecast future price movements. Technical analysts are sometimes referred to as chartists because they rely almost exclusively on charts for their analysis.

Man’s propensity to look for answers to the big questions; Are we alone? Is there life after death? What does the future hold? Man’s curiosity and the quest for answers to these and other questions have no doubt led to great advances in math and science. From a cultural and standard of living angle we’ve seemingly made plenty of progress – that is, if you happen to live in the right part of the right country under the right set of circumstances. But still, the big questions remain unanswered – to the best of my knowledge.

-cut-

What stands out in my mind, that you’re not likely to see written in many books, is that there exists a couple of underlying assumptions upon which the science of T/A is built. You will not see these assumptions articulated very often since they sound too logical and are, well, assumed. I would contend that the first of these assumptions is that investors are assumed to be rational. The second of these assumptions is that people engage in economic activity for profit. I would argue that should either of these underlying assumptions be violated, T/A becomes highly unreliable and a massive invitation for impropriety on the part of ill doers.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_gilbert&sid=aYCDK0oWCHFA

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Some flames are visible at individual funds. The Strategic Allocation fund, run by Boca Raton, Florida-based John W. Henry & Co., lost almost 27 percent of its value in the first four months of 2005, according to its Web site. London-based GLG Partners LP's Market Neutral Fund, a convertible arbitrage fund, lost more than 10 percent from mid-March to the end of April, according to Bloomberg data. It delivered more than 5 percent last year, and almost 33 percent in 2003.

The smoke may clear somewhat in the first week of June, when many hedge funds will reveal how well -- or badly -- their investments performed in May. They lost about 1.2 percent in March and April, according to an index of returns compiled by Credit Suisse Group and Tremont Capital Management Inc.

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``If we go back to the Russian crisis in 1998, the default occurred in August but the credit market did not feel the full effects until October,'' says Jim Reid, a credit strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. ``The true consequences of mark-to- market losses from General Motors and Ford may take a few months to become apparent.''

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Hedge funds were already struggling to make money this year. Depending on how ugly the May numbers turn out, we may be about to discover how quickly investors try to grab back the $1 trillion they've handed over to hedge-fund managers.

more...

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hoy/may202005.html

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This is not the point that I want to make about the “Junk Debt!” The point I want to make is the fact that the Hedge funds are loaded up on paper just like GM’s and they are taking a beating. These brilliant “whiz kids” have made the greatest mistakes that one can make in times of interest rates on their absolute bottoms. They have borrowed trillions of dollars, at very low interest rates, and invested these dollars in the highest yielding long term investments that they could find, hoping to make a killing on the spread. The addiction that these people have to greed and action has put them in a position that will challenge the very nature of our country’s financial system.

With interest rates rising, the interest charges that these “whiz kids” are paying is rising and at the same time the value of their long term investments are falling; in essence they are being squeezed two ways and then when the junk bonds they own get downgraded they get hit again. The most ironic part of this is when those people who have been on the right side of a trade, and have made good profits, try to collect from a bankrupt entity; forget it!

Again people, this is not rocket science and the handwriting is on the wall. There are rumors all over the place about major banks and hedge funds being in a “pickle” as a result of their “carry trade” speculations! Open up your eyes and ears, take notice of these things because when the bomb goes off it will be too late to put your gold positions back on or get out of the interest rate sensitive investments.

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I find it mind boggling to go back one year and read how Greenspan was a total fan of derivatives and how he stated that they served a very useful purpose in today’s world. Now, one year later we are hearing the man come out with warnings about the derivative markets and how entities like Fannie and Freddie need to be more closely scrutinized.”

Do you hear it? It is loud and clear if you listen! Tick Tock Tick Tock! You bet the timer has been tripped. The only question I have is how long before the explosion? I think that Greenspan is trying to tell us something. Actually, he is now trying to save his legacy; a legacy that never existed in the first place, he is paddling up the Mississippi in a canoe with nothing but holes and a broken oar. In short he is sunk!

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be the trigger that buying stocks on margin was to the Great Depression???? Hmmmmmm.

Demanding, ain't we?

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/69e55622-cbc3-11d9-895c-00000e2511c8.html

The US Treasury has told the Chinese authorities that they must revalue their currency by at least 10 per cent against the dollar to prevent protectionist legislation in the US congress.


Henry Kissinger, former US secretary of state, is one of a number of unofficial envoys who have impressed upon China the urgent need for action on the 10 per cent target, and on the seriousness of the threat from Congress, people with familiar with the administration's efforts said.

As well as the minimum 10 per cent target revaluation, Dr Kissinger was briefed by the Treasury on the need for other measures, such as a shift to a currency band against the dollar or a basket against a number of currencies to replace the peg.

Bill Rhodes, senior vice chairman of Citigroup, and Brent Scowcroft, who was national security adviser to President Ford and President George H. W. Bush, have also acted as unofficial envoys on behalf of the present administration.

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Tony Fratto, US Treasury spokesman, refused to comment on the 10 per cent minimum target. “We have made it clear that the interim step should be of sufficient magnitude and flexibility to quell speculative financial flows,” he said. “Without commenting on particular individuals, I would say that it is important for the Chinese authorities to hear from respected individuals who can provide an accurate analysis of the American political environment on this issue.”

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Let's get this straight, is he or isn't he still employed with the Empire? What year was that merger of the state and all the corporations? Isn't it called the the Forth Reich already?

I know I ask a lot questions, but them answers seem so obvious :crazy:

Is Henry Kissinger a war criminal, fascist or just misunderstood
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=345935

:hi: :hi: :hi: :hi: :hi: :hi: :hi: :hi: :hi: :hi: :hi: :hi: :hi: :hi:

another roller-coaster day in the markets, eh?



:hi:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 86.17 Change -0.23 (-0.27%)

Dollar Begins To Retreat Against Majors

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1215&Itemid=39

EUR/USD – Euro remained within a consolidation range as price action ground to a halt following an inability by the greenback bulls to push deeper into the euro held territory. As both sides continue to engage in a starring contest all of the defense lines remain unchanged with minor support at 1.2495, a Feb 20 daily spike low. An intermediate support at 1.2460, a July 16 high, continues to protect the major support at 1.2389, an Aug 17 daily spike high from the incursions by the dollar longs. In case euro bulls retaliate, their initial advance will encounter a minor resistance at 1.2631, a 61.8 Fib of the 1.1991-1.3667 euro rally. A move deeper in the dollar held territory will meet an intermediate resistance at 1.2665, a Nov daily spike low, with a sustained breakout testing the offers at 1.2730, a Feb 7 daily spike low. Oscillators are mixed. Stochastic is oversold on the daily chart at 10.18 and is rising above the oversold line at 26.61 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is treading along the oversold line on the daily chart at 26.42 and is neutral at 41.27 on the 4-hour chart. MACD remains below zero line on the daily chart and is made a bullish crossover below the zero on the dealer (4HR) chart.

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USD/JPY – Yen bulls continued to engage the dollar longs with greenback retreating below the 108.00 figure as yen longs managed to overpower the vanguard greenback forces. As yen bulls continue to attack dollar positions, greenback bulls will rely on a minor support at 107.30, May 20 daily spike high with intermediate support remaining at 107.08, a 61.8 Fib of the 108.88-104.16 yen rally. Major support is seen at 106.52, a 50.0 Fib of the Apr-May bull swing. In case dollar longs manage to pull their forces and retaliate their initial thrust will meet a minor resistance at 108.47, an Apr 12 daily spike low. A further advance will most likely see the vanguard greenback forces meeting an intermediate resistance at 108.88, a 2005 high, with a further breakout aiming at 109.43, a major resistance created by the July 26 daily spike high. Indicators are mixed. Stochastic remains overbought on the daily chart at 87.45 and is neutral at 39.27 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is dipping below the overbought line on the daily chart at 64.61 and is neutral at 66.16 on the 4-hour chart. MACD is crossing above the zero line on the daily chart and made a bearish crossover above the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart.

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Have a Great Day Marketeers!

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/FF/2005/FF+May+05.htm

Over the last couple weeks, so-called economic fundamentalists have been bellowing ever more stridently, if not angrily, that the bond market is nuts, totally ignoring strong April employment and retail sales data which have exposed the so-called soft patch in March data to be nothing but a mirage. There was no soft patch, they shout, while pounding their shoes in Khrushchev fashion on their desks: none, nada, zippo!

Thus, the notion that the Fed is about to stop tightening is utter nonsense, we are lectured. In turn, rallying bonds generating a bull flattening of the yield curve are not fundamentally "justified", we are told, and therefore, must be a function of so-called "technical" influences, as in supply-demand flows divorced from fundamentals. When these technical forces abate, we are warned, there will be a nasty fundamentally-driven bear market across the yield curve, as the market comes to accept that the Fed has a long tightening way to go before reaching a "neutral" real Fed funds rate.

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It’s a BW II World
I can, however, reject it non-cavalierly, on fundamental grounds. What consensus fundamentalists are missing is a fundamental structural implication of the prevailing Bretton Woods II (BW II) regime: a structural decline in the equilibrium level and term structure of real interest rates. This reality is a function of two key, fundamental drivers:
- Downward pressure on U.S. wage growth from lower-priced non-U.S. labor, which effectively flattens the U.S. Phillips Curve, implying a reduced inflation impulse per unit of decline in the U.S. unemployment rate; and
- High savings rates in booming emerging market countries, which are generating a glut of global savings and contributing to a deficiency of global aggregate demand.

These two forces, together, imply that the Federal Reserve - the center of the BW II universe, just as it was in BW I - must pursue a structurally kinder, gentler real Fed funds rate policy, so as to:
- Generate robust aggregate demand growth in America, which is exported via the U.S. current account deficit to a demand-deficient world, and
- Support lofty valuations and inflation in asset prices, in particular property, to provide a source of capital gains to supplement the income of American workers challenged by tepid wage gains.

Yes, it’s a perverse way to run a railroad or a global economy: America goes deeper and deeper into hock to the rest of the world while riding a wave of asset price speculation and inflation. Certainly not a fundamental textbook path to long-term prosperity! It is, however, precisely the fundamental textbook path to avoiding, or at least postponing, a short- to intermediate-term global spiral into a deflationary depression.

BW II, by linking mercantilist emerging market countries, notably China, into a de facto monetary union with the United States, represents a positive shock to global aggregate supply relative to global aggregate demand. Consequently, it is America’s global civic duty to live beyond its means. And it is the Federal Reserve’s global civic duty to facilitate American hedonism, because in the face of a positive structural shock to global aggregate supply, notably labor{/b], American hedonism is not inflationary.



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http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050523-mon.html#anchor1

Despite 200 basis points of tightening, neither we nor Fed officials believe that monetary policy has reached a neutral stance, and thus more tightening is likely. But there’s a disconnect between our views and those expressed in financial markets: Market participants, increasingly fed up with forecasts that yields are heading higher, are throwing in the towel and betting that the tightening cycle is nearly over. Who’s right?

Neutrality, defined a century ago by the Swedish economist Knut Wicksell, is that level of real interest rates that equilibrates aggregate supply with demand and is consistent with price stability. Of course, no one really knows what that level is. To quote Fed Chairman Greenspan last week, ‘it’s an amorphous concept we’ll know it when we see it.’ It’s understandable that policymakers won’t commit to any specific estimates. After all, other elements of financial conditions such as asset prices and credit conditions affect the linkage from monetary policy to the economy. And Fed officials already give market participants a healthy dose of forward-looking policy guidance. It may be overly precise on my part, but I’ve long thought that the range for neutrality implies that the Fed has at least another 100 basis points of tightening beyond today’s 3% funds rate.

How will we know it when we see it? The answers to two key questions will translate Wicksell’s abstraction into action for policymakers: Has the economy slowed to a pace at or below its sustainable trend, or is it poised to reaccelerate to something at or above trend? And more important, has underlying inflation, which has lately moved above the Fed’s presumed comfort zone, peaked or is it merely pausing? As I see it, there are now upside risks to both growth and inflation from current rates. Here’s why.

The answers won’t yet be found in incoming data, which are ambiguous on both counts. For example, growth in consumer demand, jobs and income all apparently have rebounded sharply in April, but because an early Easter probably depressed March levels, it’s premature to decide that the April recovery marks a new trend. Furthermore, it appears from surveys and production that the effects of the recent slowing in growth and efforts to work off inventories of cars and trucks are still depressing growth in manufacturing. Likewise, some seasonal and statistical quirks probably have distorted recent “core” inflation readings. Seasonal adjustment techniques apparently fail to eliminate completely the typical seasonal patterns in March and April inflation readings, especially in apparel and hotel room rates. And recent sharp increases in utility quotes have perversely reduced core inflation because statisticians strip out the effects of utilities’ price changes from rents when calculating the change in on owners’ equivalent rent — which accounts for nearly one-third of the core CPI. Investors should beware: What seasonal factors subtract in April will show up in other months, not disappear.

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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={13474474-81D2-4290-9AAC-04BAC3EE4C1D}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales of existing U.S. homes rose 4.5% in April to a record seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.18 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.

Economists had expected sales to be about flat at 6.88 million. March sales were revised lower, to 6.87 million from 6.89 million.

The inventory of unsold homes rose 8.1% to 2.48 million, a 4.2-month supply.

The median sales price rose 15.1% from April 2004, reaching $206,000 -- the fastest year-over-year price gain in 25 years.

The Commerce Department will report on new home sales for April on Wednesday. Economists are looking for a decline to 1.33 million sales on an annualized basis from 1.42 million in March.

In April, sales of existing single-family homes rose 4.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.28 million from 6.01 million in March. Sales of condos rose 4.8% to 899,000 from 858,000.

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10:01am 05/24/05 U.S. APRIL EXISTING HOME INVENTORY UP 5% TO 2.48M

8:23am 05/24/05 U.S. WEEKLY ICSC-UBS RETAIL INDEX FALLS 0.2%

U.S. ICSC weekly retail index falls 0.2%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38496.3530318287-835824110&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Same-store sales at U.S. retail chain stores fell 0.2% last week after a 1% decline the week before, according to the index published Tuesday by the International Council of Shopping Centers. Sales growth year-over-year improved to 3.7% from 3.5% the week earlier. "This past week, sales results were somewhat mixed," said Michael Niemira, ICSC's chief economist. "Though the last two weeks we have seen sales pull back a bit, overall sales continue to be holding up and are relatively healthy." ICSC expects May same-store sales to rise 3% to 3.5%

Dillard's earnings decline as sales slip 3%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38496.3222684028-835822543&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Dillard's Inc. (DDS) posted Tuesday first quarter net income of $38 million, or 46 cents a share compared with $53.8 million, or 64 cents a share in the same quarter a year ago. Earnings include a 4 cent a share charge for store closings. Sales for the quarter ended April 30 slipped 3% to $1.8 billion. The Thomson First Call average estimate was for earnings of 53 cents a share on revenue of $1.9 billion. Same-store sales in the first quarter fell 3%. On Monday, the stock rose 0.7% to $25.46.

Harold's earns decline, rev. lower than expected

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38496.3416718518-835823619&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Harold's Stores (HLD) reported fiscal first-quarter earnings of $782,000, or 4 cents a share, vs. $791,000, or 4 cents a share in the same period a year ago. Sales fell 0.8% to a lower-than-anticipated $24 million from last year's $24.2 million, due primarily to an earlier Easter holiday and cooler weather. The upscale specialty retailer said since these sales trends have continued into May, it would take additional clearance markdowns. The stock closed Monday down 7 cents at $1.75.

(edited to add ICSC link and blurb)

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=43319

Tim Iacono publishes the blog, “The Mess that Greenspan Made.”

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During the last couple years, we've finally been creating some new jobs - still barely enough to keep up with the rising population. Disturbingly though, a very high percentage of the new jobs are related to real estate - around 50% in the most bubbly areas.

Lots of jobs for construction workers, real estate agents, loan specialists, escrow agents, and title insurers. To that add service jobs at Wal-Mart and Home Depot, landscapers, interior decorators, remodelers, and most importantly - granite countertop installers.

We can't seem to make cars anymore - not too many jobs there, except for the finance departments. GM and Ford appear more and more like mortally wounded old beasts ready to land with a loud thud and let the government clean up their retirement messes. No longer will auto manufacturing jobs be handed down from generation to generation.

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American corporate culture is such that most jobs that can be moved overseas to achieve a competitive advantage, will be moved overseas - the world is now flat, as Thomas Friedman writes:
- Globalization is a fact of life - deal with it.

Five or ten years ago, when it became clear that low paying manufacturing jobs were leaving this country and not coming back, conventional wisdom was that we are the "innovators" - it's OK to export these low-wage, low-skill jobs because that's how globalization works.

They get the menial jobs, we innovate and create higher paying jobs here at home to replace them.

So, over the last few years, aside from creative home loans, where is the innovation?

And where are the higher paying jobs?

When the real estate boom finally ends, will we be left with anything other than a pile of debt and a bunch of granite countertops?

more...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38496.381956956-835825780&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Automobile transporter Allied Holdings, Inc. (AHI) said its first-quarter net loss widened to $10.1 million, or $1.13 a share, from $9 million, or $1.03 a share, in the year-earlier quarter. Allied blamed the wider loss on pension costs. Revenue for the period rose 4.1% to $221 million, primarily due to an increase in revenue per vehicle delivered. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization fell to $6.4 million from $7.8 million.

Looks like there is going to be a huge push to destroy all the pension funds.

I read this article while waiting for my Chinese take-out the other night - was able to find the link to the full article on-line.

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/articles/050502/2dobbs.htm

Compassionate conservatism has been the catchphrase of George W. Bush since the presidential campaign of 2000, but those two words must now ring hollow to the more than 100 million Americans who make up our middle class. There is nothing conservative about our rising record budget and trade deficits. There is nothing compassionate about the president's idea of Social Security reform, the rollback of coverage for ever more costly healthcare for working Americans, or the most recent assault on the middle class: the new bankruptcy reform bill that Bush signed into law last week.

It's ironic that Congress approved the bankruptcy bill to impose fiscal discipline on the middle class when the federal government last year ran up a $412 billion budget deficit and a $617 billion trade deficit. President Bush's temerity in signing this legislation was the ultimate hypocrisy in a town already very well credentialed. Add to that hypocrisy the House of Representatives' vote to permanently repeal the estate tax for the wealthy, as Congress further rent the middle class's social safety net.

Compassionate conservatism? The new bankruptcy law was virtually written by the credit card companies and banks, making it far more difficult for American families to erase their debt. The credit card firms are not exactly struggling. Their profits, in fact, have risen steadily over the past decade.

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"Do we run the country for the people, or do we run it for nameless, faceless banks or international corporations?" asks Harvard Law School Prof. Elizabeth Warren. "That was the issue way back as far back as the Depression. The ultimate decision was we run it for the people. ... And now we have made a complete turnabout: We not only don't invest in the middle class, we drain away from the middle class. We tax them harder; we leave them with bigger risks like never before in history. And we take away the last shred of a safety net--bankruptcy. It's war on the middle class."

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...Seventy-three Democrats in the House as well as 18 in the Senate joined their pro-business colleagues on the other side of the aisle by voting against the needs of the people. To permanently repeal the estate tax, 42 House Democrats voted in favor of supporting another break for the wealthy....

I WANT NAMES!!! :grr: :nuke:

Chinese eh....another thing outsourced......Good article and on the money. I have said since they redid the inheritance laws that we were seeing the accelerated stratification of wealth in this country. What the markets and those wealthy investors and our current regime fail to into account is that we are consumer driven economy and the bulk of the consumers are suffering form these attacks. Unless something changes, there will be some surprised investors AND economists. It is the middle class that is the breeding ground for new business ideas so in addition to the stratification of wealth we will begin to see the ossification of business (via research and development).
The comparison to South America is looking more and more accurate. Tell me, what cutting edge business/technology has come out of South America (and I am not being arrogant or expressing bigotry here). Most technology and cutting edge business innovation has come from Japan, the USA, and Europe. China and India are poised to take the USA's place (nature and business abhor a vacuum). Why will these countries take our place...value is placed on education, a growing middle class (as ours is shrinking), less money earmarked for military (more balanced budgets), and increased innovations. Of course the fact that companies are bringing jobs to their doorstep helps also.
The betrayal of our Business 'Leaders' to this country's economy is as bad as the betrayal of our politicians to our democracy. They will feast on the carcass of our industry and when it is picked clean, they will fly off to the next meal.

shopping lately? I couldn't buy the ingredients (not to mention the time and effort saved on my part) for a decent meal of Chinese cuisine.

Will the middle class ever wake up and revolt? I'm afraid with the current state of our propoganda media, combined with the inability of many to critically think for themselves we are very close to waking up to a banana republic.

to India alot (hubby is from there, and dag nabbit this Texas gal will never make roti like Momma made). I actually batch cook on my day off and have plenty to heat up during the week. We don't go out too often.

edited for the dreaded double post....:spank:

and yet the corporates can raid the pensions, and the credit card companies still have no limit on interest rates they can charge.

credit card companies to up their minimum payment requirements. Of course, they claim that it is in the debtor's best interest. :eyes:

Those nasty credit card companies are making billions on the interest charged on that outstanding balance that will never be paid off making those piddly minimum payments. That is the provision of the bill that is being touted as "compassionate" and "good for Americans". I certainly have no disagreement that getting people to pay off their debts is generally a good thing. But this is going to catch many over extended folks by surprise. And the way they are promoting it as some sort of gift is nothing but BS.

The rising minimum payment on top of rising interest rates and price inflation is going to wipe out a lot of folks. But bankruptcy won't be an option....wonder when they'll bring back debtor's prison?

and this was before GM and GMAC were declared "junk"!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BCC7BA9B2-B2BD-44AC-AF6C-7AF3506C6EFC%7D&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor (F) shares lost 1.8% to $9.99 and General Motors (GM) fell 1.4% to $32.15 on Tuesday after Deutsche Bank said it expects the top two U.S. automakers to show another decline in U.S. market share in May. In contrast, the companies picking up those sales saw their stocks eke out early gains with Honda (HMC) , Nissan (NSANY) and Toyota (TM) all moving up almost 1%.

briefing.com

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.5.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Futures market still showing some reserve, setting the stage for the cash market to open on a lower note... The Treasury market, however, has extended yesterday's rally, knocking yields on the 10-yr note closer to the psychological 4.0% barrier... While falling bond yields are supportive for stocks, follow-through buying interest in equities has so far stalled, as investors wait to see for themselves whether or not little inflationary concerns will be cited in the FOMC minutes

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Still shaping up to be a lower open for the indices as futures indications trade below fair value... Meanwhile, Utilities could be in focus after a Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) unit agreed to buy utility PacifiCorp for $5.1 bln in cash while Biotech has been in the headlines after Genentech (DNA) said its trial drug Lucentis improves vision

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.5. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a lower open for the cash market as investors wait for the release of the May FOMC minutes... It appears the market may take a breather following the recent run-up in stocks until participants get an indication later this afternoon (2:00 ET) of just how long and at what pace the Fed will continue to raise interest rates

ino.com

The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally but remains above the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing near 1524.54. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but overbought hinting that a short- term top might be in or is near. If June extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1554.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1500.80 would signal that the short covering rally off April's low has come to an end. The June NASDAQ 100 was down 4.00 pts. at 1535 as of 5:56 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 62% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1196.54. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but overbought hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If June extends last week's rally, the 75% retracement level of the March-April decline crossing at 1209.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1172.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The June S&P 500 Index was down 2.70 pts. at 1193.60 as of 5:58 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning.

http://www.webpronews.com/news/ebusinessnews/wpn-45-20050523WillAppleSwitchToIntel.html

Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Apple Computer was in talks with Intel leading to speculation that Apple may put Intel chips in its Macs.

This speculation led to Apple shares going up $2.21, or 5.89%, closing at $39.76 yesterday. Intel shares went up 15 cents, or 0.57%, closing at $26.50.

Many analysts in the industry, however, find it unlikely that Apple will switch from IBM chips to Intel. One analyst, Kevin Krewell of Microprocessor Report believes that Apple is just trying to get attention from IBM.

"I believe this is a purely negotiating move by Apple to grab some attention and headlines and to point out that they're feeling underappreciated by IBM," said Krewell. Mercury News explains:

more...

http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2005/05/23/daily1.html?jst=b_ln_hl

The Phoenix area has seen home prices jump more than 20 percent during the first three months of the year, compared with first-quarter 2004 figures.

snip>

Arizona Real Estate Center figures showed that the median price of a home in the Phoenix area was $203,000 in the first quarter of 2005, and $221,000 by the end of April.

However, home prices are on the rise elsewhere. According to a USA Today analysis published Monday, 65 of 136 U.S. cities posted double-digit price increases over the year. Bradenton, Fla., posted the largest year-over-year increase in home prices, up nearly 46 percent.

In fact, 8 of the top 10 cities posting the largest increases were in Florida, which may be attributed to rebuilding after last year's hurricanes.

snip>

Overall, the median price of a home in the U.S. as a whole rose 9.7 percent over the year, from $172,100 to $188,800.

more...

Dow 10,482.18 -41.38 (-0.39%)
Nasdaq 2,054.86 -1.79 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 1,191.44 -2.42 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.029 -0.43 (-1.06%)

NYSE Volume 326,298,000
Nasdaq Volume 384,484,000

10:00AM: Equities still on the defensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative... Even though a weaker dollar has helped Gold advance, losses in Chemicals, Paper and Steel have weighed on the Materials sector... Weakness in Brokerage and Banks has kept Financial under pressure while profit-taking has taken some steam out of Industrials and Consumer Discretionary - two of yesterday's best performing sectors... Technology has been mixed, as gains in Semi and Storage have been offset by losses in Software and Hardware...

Energy, however, has shown relative strength, benefiting from a modest rise in oil prices while Biotech has been one of the best performing S&P groups amid positive news regarding one of Genentech's (DNA 79.03 +2.43) trial drugs... NYSE Adv/Dec 918/1663, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 948/1402

9:40AM: Market opens lower as investors elect to take some profits ahead of key economic data... While the market is hopeful that the minutes from the May 3 FOMC meeting will carry a tone that implies the tightening process is nearing an end, the temptation of consolidating some gains following a strong market performance over the last seven sessions has so far kept buyers on the sidelines... Separately, Apr. Existing Home Sales (consensus 6.9 mln) will be released at 10:00 ET...

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/laborde052305.html

snip>

A US Park Service tour guide explained that the company store was used to cheat minority sharecroppers of their labor. She explained that the sharecroppers were serfs that farmed the land for a percentage of the crop. She further explained that the plantation owner extended credit throughout the year at the company store. In the fall, after the crops were harvested and sold, the debts were settled. The Park Service guide said that because of easy credit and a lack of understanding regarding the consequences of excess credit many sharecroppers ended the harvest season owing more than they earned. (I expected Tennessee Ernie Ford to step out of the wood work singing "I Owe My Soul to the Company Store" at any moment.) In other words they spent more than they earned because of easy credit at the company store. This resulted in a negative savings rate where the net worth of the sharecropper decreased year after year as debt piled up at the company store. The US Park Service tour guide explained how this was terrible and she was glad that this type of system no longer existed.

After Puddy and I left and went outside for a little fresh air Puddy reminded me of Suze Orman's new book, "The Money Book for the Young, Fabulous and Broke". It is about how today's younger generation in the US overindulges themselves by borrowing irresponsibly with credit cards. They are piling up debt year after year by living beyond their means resulting in an ever larger negative net worth. It seems that this young generation just doesn't understand the consequences of excess debt.

In defense of the company store many plantation owners found themselves "land poor" after the War of Northern Aggression. In Louisiana alone over half the wealth in the State disappeared in addition of 20% of the male population (not counting those maimed or crippled for life). After the war many of the slaves refused to leave their home (the plantation was their home too) and many wanted to stay and continue to work. Since there was little or no money after the war the only thing the plantation owners could do was to rent them land for a percentage of the crop grown on that land. The times were harsh for both the plantation owner and the sharecropper. Most plantation owners were only one step ahead of the tax collector and many lost their farms because they could not make enough to pay the property taxes. The State of Louisiana was reduced after the war from one of the richest states in the nation to one of the poorest - a condition that still exists to this day.

I can only be proud that the economic system known as "the company store" where easy credit lures poor unsuspecting workers into greater and greater debt year after year no longer exists in this country. Perhaps sometime in the 22nd century my great, great grandson will tour the Bank of America building in New York and some future US Park Service employee will explain the "VISA" system where all the workers were serfs and how they were all victims of easy credit that they did not fully understand …………

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/rkirby052105.html

When officialdom boldly claimed that a huge increase in January 05 TIC data was in response to Caribbean Hedge Fund buying of long US Treasury obligations back in March of 05 - Why did news outlets like CNBC fail to report concerns regarding massive implied hedge fund losses in these Caribbean based funds then? If anyone cares to recall, the yield on 10 year treasuries was about 4.00 % in January, when these subject securities were allegedly purchased by hedge funds - and by the beginning of March the 10 year yield had ballooned to 4.50%? Blood should have been running in the street then, which media outlets like CNBC should have been reporting on. Instead, they remained silent.

I would like to draw your attention to January TIC data that was published by the US Treasury March 15, 2005. Make special note of the reserve holdings of China, Japan and Great Britain for the month of Jan. 05. This data set was copied from the Treasury's web site in March 05:



Now, if you take a look at the latest release of TIC data - you might notice that these numbers have been dramatically altered - after the fact. On May 16, 2005 - we received our latest installment of TIC data from the good folks at the Fed and Treasury. It is appended here.



Economic history has apparently been rewritten folks. The inconsistencies and conflicting data being fed to us by officialdom are brazenly astonishing. In the month of Jan. 05 alone, Japan's holdings of US securities have been retro altered to the tune of over 20 billion, China's by close to 30 billion and the United Kingdom's by more than 60 billion. Can any of us really believe anything these folks have to say? Imagine, a restatement of this magnitude without as much as an explanatory footnote or a press release? Somehow, none of this is even deemed to be newsworthy? What's beginning to scare me; if the US Treasury tells us the world is flat - what happens to the South Pole?

snip>

This is news. This is deadly serious and has extremely dire implications for each and every American citizen - no - how about each and every person in the industrialized Western World? Remember, folks, the American Dollar currently still enjoys global reserve currency status. This is a privilege - not a god given right. As such, the dollar's fate is of grave and utmost concern to many beyond US borders. I do not understand how a "press" that claims to be the freest in the world can remain stone silent on this issue. Don't you think we all deserve better? Does anyone really believe that ignoring this issue and failing to report it altogether will alter the stark, dark and disturbing reality outlined in the Treasury's own published numbers? Better put your mitts on folks - and get in the game. In absence of an explanation to the contrary, it sure looks like somebody's monetizing debt and printing money - and lots of it. The silence on the part of officialdom on this issue is truly deafening. Remember folks, the shenanigans outlined above are all brought to us by the same swashbuckling clowns who claim the economy is doing fine, there are lots of jobs, are adamant that the gold market is not rigged and oh, yes, they perpetually remind us that inflation is a non issue too. What a mess.

more...

what's a person to do? If the numbers have been whitewashed for this long, have we passed the absolute point of no return?

despair. Seems there's no where to run to, no where to hide. Might as well just pull up a seat and watch the show. :popcorn:

Perhaps when it's all over they will be tried for treason.

broacdcast it...

Dow 10,476.42 -47.14 (-0.45%)
Nasdaq 2,053.91 -2.74 (-0.13%)
S&P 500 1,189.91 -3.95 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 40.41 -0.31 (-0.76%)
NYSE Volume 686,444,000
Nasdaq Volume 748,613,000


11:30AM : Buyers show some resolve, amid reports that Abu Musab al Zarqawi is wounded, lifting the major averages to session highs... Perhaps more notably has been the turnaround in technology, which has helped the Nasdaq inch into positive territory... While yesterday marked a 7th straight winning session for the Nasdaq, the tech-heavy Composite has not finished up eight days in a row since 1999...NYSE Adv/Dec 1297/1727, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1261/1513

11:00AM : More of the same for stocks, as selling remains widespread across most areas... Treasurys, however, have remained in positive territory even as rates in the U.S. will continue to rise relative to rates around the globe... Earlier, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) lowered its forecast for global economic growth to 2.6% (from 2.9%) and slashed its forecast for 2005 European growth, to 1.2% from an already unimpressive 1.9%, calling on EuroZone officials to cut interest rates to spur on economic growth... NYSE Adv/Dec 1170/1785, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1117/1576

10:30AM : Despite stronger than expected housing data, the major indices continue to chalk up losses... At the top of the hour, April existing home sales rose 4.5% to a record 7.18 mln units (consensus 6.9 mln) while March resales were revised slightly lower to 6.87 mln from 6.89 mln... While the report lends further proof to the understanding that low mortgage rates continue to underpin strong buying demand, new home sales (consensus 1328K) - which will be released tomorrow morning at 10:00 ET - typically carry more weight and should have a more influential economic impact on the market...NYSE Adv/Dec 1041/1814, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 995/1570

10:00AM : Equities still on the defensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative... Even though a weaker dollar has helped Gold advance, losses in Chemicals, Paper and Steel have weighed on the Materials sector... Weakness in Brokerage and Banks has kept Financial under pressure while profit-taking has taken some steam out of Industrials and Consumer Discretionary - two of yesterday's best performing sectors... Technology has been mixed, as gains in Semi and Storage have been offset by losses in Software and Hardware...

Energy, however, has shown relative strength, benefiting from a modest rise in oil prices while Biotech has been one of the best performing S&P groups amid positive news regarding one of Genentech's (DNA 79.03 +2.43) trial drugs... NYSE Adv/Dec 918/1663, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 948/1402

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={D0D3E6B2-08D7-40BA-BF6E-242EDA32DDE8}&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Fitch Ratings on Tuesday downgraded the senior unsecured ratings of General Motors Corp. (GM) , GMAC and the majority of affiliated entities to BB+ from BBB-. Fitch said the move reflects the continuing decline in GM's North American sales of key mid-size and large SUV products, increasing product and price competition in the large pickup market, and the corresponding impact of these two segments on consolidated profitability. The agency also said it believes that declining volumes and profitability, coupled with lack of tangible progress in attacking manufacturing and legacy costs will result in negative cash flow through at least 2006. The rating outlook for GM remains negative, Fitch said.

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

We don’t really have a problem of excessive “US-centric” growth, if the “Bretton Woods II” advocates are to be believed. You haven’t heard of “Bretton Woods II”? It is the latest hypothesis used to rationalise today’s perverse global financial architecture, the main proponents being three leading economists: David Folkerts-Landau, Peter Garber, and Michael Dooley, who have all written extensively on the subject. Dooley forcefully advanced the thesis again at a PIMCO Secular Forum held a few weeks ago.

The Bretton Woods II hypothesis posits the notion that the world is effectively back to a regime of global fixed exchange rates pegged to the US dollar like the original Bretton Woods regime that lasted from 1945 to 1973. Unlike the formal regime that existed over that time frame, this “new and improved” version is more or less bi-regional. It bypasses Europe altogether and largely consists of an informal arrangement between the U.S. and the nations of the Asian savings bloc. Under the new “system,” the Bretton Woods gold-dollar fixed exchange rate has in essence been replaced by an arrangement whereby the nations of emerging Asia either peg (China, Hong Kong, and Malaysia), or closely manage their respective currencies against the greenback. This new regime is based on structural current account deficits in the U.S. and structural current account surpluses in Asia; Asian current account surpluses are recycled to provide cheap financing for the US current account deficits, although under a classic monetary system it is doubtful that anything like the imbalances currently in existence would be allowed to develop. At the apex of this new Bretton Woods, the US Federal Reserve produces money supply that goes through the banking system to consumers, who then consume imported goods via the "fixed" exchange rate, a large portion of which are produced in Asia. Asia takes the money generated by these exported goods, and then purchases U.S. bonds—in other words, lends it back to the U.S.—and then the cycle repeats itself over and over again.

Implicit in the Bretton Woods II model is that the presumption is that the arrangement is symbiotic and mutually beneficial for everybody. According to its advocates, this new monetary regime allows the U.S. to finance its large current account deficit at a low cost for a long time; the U.S. has a huge savings shortfall, but offers tremendously high returns afforded for capital imports by virtue of the dynamism of its economy.

One can see the alleged coincidence of interests: America allows this arrangement to persist because it provides ample financing for its large and growing current account deficit. Indeed, the deficit itself is turned around: it is not a symptom of over-consumption, or a nation experiencing acute financial fragility, but rather a sign of economic virility because the deficit reflects the prospect of substantial returns to capital afforded within the American economy, in relation to the rest of the world.

more...

Dow 10,482.92 -40.64 (-0.39%)
Nasdaq 2,056.09 -0.56 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,191.32 -2.54 (-0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.037% -0.04

NYSE Volume 745,016,000
Nasdaq Volume 809,943,000

12:00PM: Market still struggles to gain much traction midday as investors consolidate some gains ahead of this afternoon's release (2:00 ET) of the May FOMC minutes... While the market remains confident that the minutes from the May 3 FOMC meeting will carry a tone that implies the tightening process is nearing an end, the enticement to take some profits following a week-long rally that has resulted in gains of more than 3.0% for the major averages has underpinned a sense of nervousness...
Even though reports that Abu Musab al Zarqawi may be wounded had slightly improved sentiment, recent news that General Motors (GM 31.59 -1.00) and GMAC have been cut to junk status at Fitch has left eight out of ten economic sectors in negative territory... Financial (-0.4%) has been the most influential leader to the downside, amid worries that the Fed will keep raising rates through the end of the year... Even as rates in the U.S. continue to rise, however, Treasurys have extended yesterday's rally, as the benchmark 10-year note is up 4 ticks to yield 4.03%...

Despite dollar weakness providing a floor of buying support for Gold, the Materials sector has been under pressure, due in part to CSFB reducing FY05 EPS estimates on International Paper (IP 33.16 -0.31)... Consumer Discretionary has been weak, after Dillard's (DDS 22.90 -2.56) missed analysts' Q1 forecasts by $0.08 on lower than expected revenues, while profit-taking has weighed on Technology and Industrials... The Utilities sector, in focus this morning after a Berkshire Hathaway unit agreed to buy PacifiCorp from Scottish Power (SPI 34.13 +1.77) for $5.1 bln in cash, has also traded lower...

12:17

Dow 10,482.55 -41.01 (-0.39%)
Nasdaq 2,055.83 -0.82 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,191.24 -2.62 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.040 -0.32 (-0.79%)

NYSE Volume 749,952,000
Nasdaq Volume 813,948,000

Could get pretty interesting with those hedge funds.

:hi: Ozy! - we must be reaching for the same shiny coin again :D

but it seems that no matter what wave of bad news, like shrinking market shares and disappointing returns among major publicly traded companies (particularly the auto industry and associated suppliers), the psychoology of the market still yearns for the rah-rah days of the 90's. The numbers keep edging upward only to fall back, sometimes redefining where support rests.

I know that some people are doing well with their stock picks. However, the systemic behavior tells me that the markets have a malaise that just will not go away no matter what effort is extended in making overall performances solid.

I will be curious to see how the hedge fund fracture plays out. Now that we know hedge funds play a significant role in maintaining market liquidity - how will the market (and our credit systems that provide too much support for this kind of speculation) fare if the source for so much liquidity fails?

undermined the stability of the markets - contrary to all the spew that comes from the top of the food chain.

Bubbles Meanspin definitely may get caught in his shorts.

defends hedge funds because their very existence shrouds the true results of his sham policies. I want Greenscam to testify before Congress to offer his explaination as to why hedge funds are good things. I do not want all of his non-committal "shoulds" and "would haves" or "reflexive logic". He needs to explain how these are allowed to remain largely unregulated, operating freely to manipulate regulated issues.

Greenspan to testify on economy on June 9

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BA47F3CB1-EE01-4241-83E6-8E4E94F6B2E1%7D&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will testify on the economic outlook at the congressional Joint Economic Committee on June 9, the committee said Tuesday. Greenspan's testimony will come three weeks before the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on June 29 and 30, and a week following the May nonfarm payrolls report.

:evilgrin:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B84CE1EA2%2D14BA%2D4FDB%2DBE4E%2D7309F7A57AFE%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Falling stock markets didn't deter hedge fund investors in the first quarter, Tremont Capital Management said Tuesday.

Hedge funds pulled in a net $25 billion in the first quarter as investors ploughed money into strategies that could perform better in uncertain markets, the Rye, New York-based investment management firm said.

That's up from the $16 billion that flowed into hedge funds in the final three months of 2004, the company added.

<snip>

Hedge fund assets have ballooned in recent years as institutional investors such as pension funds looked to put a portion of their money in investments that are less correlated with stock and bond markets.

In 1990 these private investment partnerships oversaw less than $40 billion. Now assets have surged to about $1 trillion, according to Chicago-based research and data firm Hedge Fund Research Inc.

<snip>

Convertible arbitrage hedge funds faced $2.8 billion in redemptions in the first quarter. With $1 billion of new money flowing in, the strategy lost a net $1.8 billion in the period, Tremont said.

...more...

What in the world are pension funds doing in the hedge funds?

:banghead:

:wtf: How can I find out if the Teachers Retirement System of Texas is doing something stupid like this (or any pension fund for that matter?

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050523-mon.html#anchor0

The herd always runs tightly in momentum-driven financial markets. That seems to be even more the case today. In a growth-starved world, most are now convinced that the China boom is here to stay. That could be wishful thinking. China is now putting policies in place aimed at taming the internal excesses of its unbalanced economy. At the same time, the rest of the world is ganging up on Chinese exports. What if the unthinkable happens -- and the Chinese economy actually slows?

Contrary to conventional wisdom, the data flow is not unequivocally positive on the Chinese economy. Yes, the supply-side numbers remain most impressive -- especially, the just-reported reacceleration of industrial output growth to 16.0% y-o-y in April 2005 that follows on the heels of a deceleration to “just” 14.4% growth as recently as December 2004. That points to little relief from the white-hot Chinese GDP growth trajectory, which held at 9.5% in 1Q05. Not surprisingly, the output momentum is being driven by surging Chinese exports, with industrial output for exports estimated to have risen at a 29.9% y-o-y rate in April. This is very much consistent with the ongoing surge of Chinese exports, where growth held at a 32% y-o-y pace n April -- all the more impressive since export growth was a tear this same a year ago, also rising at a 32% rate. Meanwhile, fixed investment growth continued at a torrid pace -- up 26% through April. While that’s down from the 40% comparisons of a year ago, the investment gains remain well in excess of the government’s official 16% growth target for this over-heated sector, which is on track to exceed 50% of Chinese GDP this year.

On the demand side of the China growth story, however, there are some disquieting signs. Especially notable in that regard is evidence of a sharp slowdown in Chinese import growth: Over the first four months of 2005, import growth comparisons averaged just 13.5% -- a marked deceleration from the 36% gains for 2004 as a whole. This has important implications for the rest of the region, which provides China with capital equipment and intermediate inputs for its export businesses. Indeed, Chinese import growth has become an engine of pan-Asian exports over the past six years. For Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, fully 20% of their total exports now go to China; for Singapore, the ratio is closer to 10%. Reflecting this increasingly tight linkage, the recent slowdown in Chinese import growth is already having important ripple effects elsewhere in Asia. That’s especially the case in Taiwan, where export growth slipped to just 1.2% y-o-y in 1Q05; it’s also the case with recent export sluggishness in Japan (-0.8% q-o-q, annualized export decline in 1Q05), Hong Kong (+3.5% y-o-y in March), Korea (+7.4% in 1Q05), and Singapore (+6.2% in March for non-oil domestic exports). In all of these cases, the latest export comparisons represent a sharp deceleration from gains six months ago, when the Chinese import boom was cresting.

The China import slowdown also appears to be having equally important impacts on commodity inflation. That reflects China’s increasingly dominant role in driving worldwide demand for industrial materials. While China’s share of world GDP amounted to just 4% in 2004 (at market exchange rates), our estimates suggest this nation accounted for 8% of global consumption of crude oil, 20% of aluminum, and 30-35% of steel, iron, and coal. Not surprisingly, the deceleration of Chinese imports has been accompanied by a sharp deceleration of non-oil commodity inflation: The Journal of Commerce composite index of industrial materials is now down 3% y-o-y through May 20 -- a stunning reversal from peak increases of close to 35% in early 2004. Inasmuch as commodity prices are one of the best real-time gauges of the interplay between global supply and demand, the emergence of negative comparisons for industrial commodity prices could well be a good leading indicator of further weakness to come in Chinese industrial activity.

This backward-looking assessment is only a hint of what to expect in the event of a more decisive slowing in the Chinese economy. With China bashing on the rise around the world -- especially in the US but also increasingly in Europe -- Chinese export momentum is bound to slow significantly over the course of this year. With exports currently accounting for 36% of Chinese GDP, the current export surge of 32% (y-o-y through April) accounts for over 11 percentage points of Chinese GDP growth. That means the direct effect of every five-percentage points of slower export growth could knock as much as 1.8 percentage points off Chinese GDP growth. To be sure, this overstates the downside risks to China in the event of a major hit to exports. As noted above, there should be an important offset as Chinese exports have a large import content that some researchers place as high as 50% (see EPrasad, TRumbaugh, and QWang, “Putting the Cart Before the Horse? Capital Account and Exchange Rate Flexibility in China,” IMF Policy Discussion Paper, January 2005). While that would tend to mitigate the loss in Chinese GDP, it would transfer a significant portion of the impacts to China’s supply chain elsewhere in Asia. All in all, a slowing of Chinese export growth could have a major impact on both Chinese and pan-Asian GDP growth over the course of 2005.

more...

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/biz/200505/kt2005052419100311880.htm

South Korean regulators will monitor moves of hedge funds operating in the local market amid growing concerns about the possible collapse of global hedge funds, the Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) said.

``We will closely monitor hedge funds¡¯ every move in the market. We are concerned about the sudden collapse of hedge funds and the ensuing market shock,¡¯¡¯ Yun Yong-ro, director general of the FSC, said.

All of the concerns were ignited when Standard & Poor¡¯s, a global rating agency, reduced the outlook for corporate bonds of General Motors and Ford to negative earlier this month.

Rumors that about $8 billion of hedge funds exposed to GM¡¯s junk bonds will be liquidated in the wake of the downgrading spread soon, sending shivers to the world¡¯s financial sector.

Few countries will be free from the fallout of the sudden collapse of hedge funds in today¡¯s globalized financial markets.

more...

worry about though - move along now)

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/analysis_and_features/story.jsp?story=640913

Hedge-fund hysteria has reached a new climax over the past week, as increasing numbers of prominent commentators have begun warning that another Long Term Capital Management (LTCM)-style crisis could be looming.

LTCM, a $4bn (£2bn) hedge fund, threatened to derail global markets seven years ago, after it was wrong-footed by a devaluation in the Russian rouble. Eventually the Federal Reserve had to organise a rescue by a clutch of the world's largest banks for fear that LTCM's collapse would cause multiple bankruptcies through the world's capital markets.

Major financial regulators believe they learned valuable lessons from the LTCM crisis, yet the past few years has seen exponential growth in the hedge-fund market, presenting a new set of challenges. While funds like LTCM - which was believed to be geared as much as 100 times - are a thing of the past, the sheer number of hedge funds today have meant that tens or even hundreds of funds may be exposed to the same positions. Hence, when events do not turn out as expected, large chunks of the hedge -fund community can find themselves caught out simultaneously - sending a tremor across the globe's financial markets.

snip>

The GM saga kick-started a wave of negative coverage about the hedge-fund sector. Last week, the Centre for Economic & Business Research (CEBR) warned that some 1,600 funds will go bust over the next two years.

snip>

And only yesterday, it was revealed that Gerald Corrigan, the former head of the New York Federal Reserve, who conducted the official investigation into the LTCM crisis, is to launch aninvestigation into hedge funds in response to the widespread concern.

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That kinda answers my question posted above at #50.

Why you'll feel the hedge funds' pain

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P116159.asp

snip>

Fallout -- and bankruptcy?
Funds are required by contract to provide "liquidity" -- that is, cash -- to members either at the end of a month or a quarter. So many in the investment community are holding their breath now waiting to see how many funds need to liquidate stock and bond portfolios in order to meet a flood of redemptions.

One serious issue is that CDOs may be widely sold, but they are not terribly liquid. There is no easy market for these things, and they can typically only be sold back to the organization from which they were purchased. Plus, since they are just sitting on the funds' books for long periods of time, they are usually not marked to market, or priced, until the time of sale. And that is why no one really knows how much money is at stake.

"We have seen that these sorts of trades only work until they stop working," said Peter Petas, of the capital structure research firm CreditSights. "It is not the most tested market, but guys are taking these trades anyway to get yield in a low-volatility environment."

If we see big up days in the market followed by big down days, you can be sure that funds are using every uptick to unload inventory to meet their obligation and avoid bankruptcy. At times like this, the Federal Reserve and other central banks have learned to flood the system with money to avoid big disruptions. So from now until the end of the month, or quarter, there may be an interesting battle between the private forces of fear and the public forces of balance. Stay tuned: it could be your money

more...

http://www.business-standard.com/common/storypage.php?chklogin=N&autono=189746&lselect=1&leftnm=lmnu9&leftindx=9

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may not issue a banking licence to the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) to commence operations in the country.

According to a source close to the development, the RBI is averse to issuing a banking licence to UBS following the role of group firm, UBS Securities Asia Ltd, in the stock market crash of May 17 last year. A final view on the matter was, however, yet to be taken, the source added.

UBS was reported to have applied for a banking licence a few months back.

UBS Securities was barred from issuing offshore derivative instruments in the Indian securities market for a year, according to a order of the Securities Exchange Board of India issued on May 17.

The order stated said that UBS Securities sold shares worth Rs 1.8 billion on behalf of hedge funds in the cash market, thus pulling down prices

more...

Dow 10,484.99 -38.57 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,056.41 -0.24 (-0.01%)
S&P 500 1,191.41 -2.45 (-0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 40.46 -0.26 (-0.64%)

NYSE Volume 897,156,000
Nasdaq Volume 968,421,00

:00PM: Buyers show some resolve but market internals still suggest a modestly bearish bias... Decliners on the NYSE hold a 18 to 13 advantage over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq hold a 4 to 3 margin over advancing issues... The ratio of down to up volumes, however, suggests a more mixed tone at both the Big Board and the Composite, with the latter holding a slight edge to the upside... Meanwhile, the Dow continues to trade below initial support of 10505 while the S&P and Nasdaq have found modest support near 1191 and 2045, respectively...NYSE Adv/Dec 1308/1827, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1252/1612

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Puplava/may242005.html

Economists are calling it a “soft patch,” a temporary slowdown in economic growth. This reflects a regression from earlier euphemisms of a “Goldilocks” economy. I’m sure before long the “soft patch” will turn into a “soft landing.” However, I’ve yet to see a “soft landing” in my 30 years in the investment business. Soft landings are as rare as the dodo bird. It is surprising to see this term resurface every time we are about to head into a recession. Perhaps economists think it has a more palatable sound than recession and depression, which are more frightening terms to investors.

What we can say with a certain degree of confidence is that the Fed will keep raising interest rates until they arrive at a "neutral rate," i.e. an interest rate that is neither stimulative nor contractive for the economy. Reality is something different. The Fed can never truly arrive at a neutral rate. They habitually raise rates until something breaks—usually either in the economy or the markets, but in most cases it's both. The days in which the Fed could fine-tune the economy ended several decades ago with the emergence of the financial economy. Today, even more money is injected into the economy and the investment markets outside the traditional banking sector. Last year the US economy added $2,718 billion in debt. However, the broadest measure of the money supply (M3) expanded by only $587.5 billion. For those who are relieved that money supply growth has slowed down, as shown in the table below, take no comfort. Credit expansion in the US is rampant as reflected in last year's total credit expansion of $2,718 billion.

snip>

There are a number of issues, which the United States faces today. Each one looms larger as the year progresses. Whether it will be one or a combination of issues that tip the balance is hard to say. But I believe the following tipping points should be red flags to the investor as we head closer to the cliff, leading to a fall...

1. Leveraged Carry Trade
2. Growing Trade Deficit
3. U. S. Consumer Debt
4. Banking Crisis
5. Reliance on Foreign Investment6. The Rogue Wave

more...

1:59
Dow 10,486.33 -37.23 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 2,056.59 -0.06 (-0.00%)
S&P 500 1,191.17 -2.69 (-0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.054 -0.18 (-0.44%)

NYSE Volume 1,012,139,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,085,490,000

1:30PM: Recent recovery effort seems to have stalled as investors wait to see if the Fed, with the upcoming (2:00 ET) release of the FOMC minutes, is more concerned about inflation or slow economic growth... Since Fed officials had a batch of weak economic data for March at their disposal when they last met (May 3), the commentary regarding inflation should remain the focal point... But given some of the slower growth in manufacturing and the favorable inflation readings, participants remain anxious to see an end to the tightening cycle and just what exactly will be the "neutral" fed funds rate...NYSE Adv/Dec 1333/1816, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1220/1662

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38496.5836673495-835834305&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Fed officials were not troubled by indicators released in April that suggested the economy was slowing, according to the minutes of the May 3 meeting released on Tuesday. Most members viewed the weaker data as "transitory." Only a few FOMC members thought that the Fed's seven straight rate hikes since June 2004 might be impacting growth unexpectedly. The minutes suggest that inflation remained the paramount concern for the central bankers. Many FOMC members viewed the risks to the inflation outlook as "skewed somewhat to the upside." Once again, some Fed officials objected to the language in the post-meeting statement that rates could be increased at a "measured" pace. They argued that such forward-looking language would limit the Fed's flexibility. But the majority rejected this view, insisting that "measured" did not preclude either a pause in the steady pace of rate hikes or an increase the size of the rate hikes to a half a percentage point.

2:00pm 05/24/05 FOMC: FED STAFF FORECAST INFLATION TO EDGE LOWER

2:00pm 05/24/05 FOMC: INVENTORY BUILDUP NOT A MAJOR WORRY FOR OUTLOOK

2:00pm 05/24/05 FOMC: 'MEASURED' DOES NOT PRECLUDE LARGER OR NO MOVE

2:00pm 05/24/05 FOMC: SOME MEMBERS TRY TO REMOVED 'MEASURED' LANGUAGE

2:00pm 05/24/05 FOMC: ONLY FEW MEMBERS WORRIED ABOUT SLOWDOWN

2:00pm 05/24/05 FOMC MINUTES SHOW CONCERN OVER INFLATION OUTLOOK

2:00pm 05/24/05 FOMC MINUTES: SOFT-PATCH MOST LIKELY 'TRANSITORY'

all over the economy for the past 4+ years?



(eduted cuz ah kant spull and ma pitcher didn werk)

and we are not even through May yet. Oh brother....

in the next quarter, month, year until I could just :puke:

:banghead:

When will the numbers finally be unmassageable? When will the masses awake?

Soon, I hope.



The estimated population of the United States is 296,167,323
so each citizen's share of this debt is $26,257.97.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$1.68 billion per day since September 30, 2004

and there could have been one more line on the bottom of that pic:

Your children are dying.

:cry:

When you pass down the streets of suburbia just tack on that extra $100,000.oo+ on each house because that's what many of these bankers are counting on.

Many peoples bill for taxes will show it soon :scared: (multi-millionaires and billionaires excluded of course)

edit to change link to the fed site from smartmoney

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/minutes/20050503.htm

Dow 10,488.48 -35.08 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,056.28 -0.37 (-0.02%)
S&P 500 1,191.20 -2.66 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.060 -0.12 (-0.29%)

NYSE Volume 1,046,479,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,121,287,000

2:00PM: Stocks still show little vigor, having moved little in the past half hour, as the majority of blue chips remain underwater... On the Dow, General Motors (GM 31.70 -0.89) continues to pace the way lower following another debt downgrade while MCD and PG have also lost more than 1.0%... Of the nine components catching a bid, Merck (MRK 33.08 +0.45) has surged, finding support after declaring a quarterly dividend of $0.38, while Intel (INTC 26.83 +0.33) has benefited from upbeat comments out of JP Morgan... NYSE Adv/Dec 1373/1809, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1234/1675

Dow 10,499.92 -23.64 (-0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,059.01 +2.36 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 1,192.54 -1.32 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.063 -0.09 (-0.22%)

NYSE Volume 1,060,543,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,135,389,000

is low for 2 o'clock

Dow 10,484.69 -38.87 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,055.56 -1.09 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 1,191.22 -2.64 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.054 -0.18 (-0.44%)

NYSE Volume 1,197,066,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,267,612,000

2:30PM: Choppy trading persists, as the market struggles to find direction upon further analysis of the FOMC minutes... Even though the May FOMC minutes have noted that the "most likely outcome" is stable prices and stable growth, and that core inflation gauges are "likely to remain in check" and that recent slower economic growth is "likely to be transitory," most members agreed that rates are too low and that the data hinted at "possible upside price risks."...NYSE Adv/Dec 1422/1788, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1317/1628

I'm really curious to know.

http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:Xvc2HUOEUPUJ:www.apta.com/research/info/online/documents/fuelsurvy.pdf+united+states+price+per+gallon+january+2001&hl=en


From January 1999 to the end of 2000, the median price paid for diesel fuel increased 153
percent, from $0.4583 per gallon to $1.1581 per gallon.
!
From January 1999 to the end of 2000, the median price paid for compressed natural gas
increased 38 percent, from $0.5033 per therm to $0.6989 per therm.
!
From January 1999 to the end of 2000, the median price paid for electricity for propulsion
power increased 10 percent, from $0.0644 per kilowatt hour to $0.0710 per kilowatt hour.
!
Overthree-fourthsofresponding transit agencies have taken or are considering takingactions
as a responseto fuel price increases. The most frequent response to rising prices is to reduce
other operatingcosts, followed bytransfers of funds from reserves, and fare increases.

<snip>

United States energy prices are monitored by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the
U.S. Department of Energy(DOE). The EIA has reported large increases in energy prices for all
energy products. Between January 1999 and January 2001,the price of regular grade retail motor
gasolineincreased 45 percent, from $0.972 to$1.406 per gallon; the price of retail on-highwaydiesel
fuel increased 58 percent, from $0.965 to $1.522 per gallon. From January 1999 to August 2000,
theprice ofnatural gas to "commercial"users increased 19 percent, from $0.541 to $0.620 per therm.
FromJanuary 1999 to September2000, the price ofelectricityto "other" users increased 3.5 percent,
from $0.0632 to $0.0654 per kilowatt hour. These price trends are reported on Table 1.

...more...

So that's basically a 110% jump in price in the national average (or at least here in Cali, it is) ?

And the sad thing is, nobody makes the connection to high gas prices and the fact that we have oil barons controlling the White House and the Senate. And you'd be a fool or Michael Moore to make that connection.

2:53pm 05/24/05 JULY CRUDE SETTLES AT $49.67, UP 51 CENTS

Dow 10,510.18 -13.38 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,061.72 +5.07 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 1,194.81 +0.95 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.037 -0.35 (-0.86%)

NYSE Volume 1,386,302,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,458,405,000

3:00PM: Blue chip indices continue to languish near their lows of the session in the absence of sector leadership... While a 1.2% sell-off in the Brokerage group has weighed most heavily on the influential Financial sector, profit-taking in several REITs has also contributed to sector weakness... REITs have been under pressure after Merrill Lynch lowered its rating on six companies (i.e. KRC, BXP, SPG, GGP, PNP and REG), citing valuation - a day after the Morgan Stanley REIT Index (RMS -1.4%) touched an all-time high... Trading lower in sympathy have been AIV (-1.6%), EOP (-1.2%) and EQR (-1.0%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1409/1816, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1252/1714

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-05/25/content_2998007.htm

BRUSSELS, May 24 (Xinhuanet) -- European Union (EU) Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson met with visiting Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Gao Hucheng on Tuesday, trying to reach a deal on the textile disputes.

The one-hour talks held on the eve of the EU's decision whetherto take urgency procedures to contain the increase in Chinese exports.

"The tone of the meeting was constructive. Talks are continuing," said a brief statement issued by the EU executive European Commission.

snip>

To ease the situation, China agreed last week to raise export tariffs on goods in 74 categories by as much as five times.

However, China says that it will scrap recently agreed plans to increase export tariffs on textiles should the EU and the United States also impose quotas on imports.

"If the US and the EU formally carry out restrictions on any of these

more...

My RW "friend" would really be pissed, but he cancelled his scrip to the local fishwrap in protest over an earlier Luckovich act of treason.