A Missing Statistic: U.S. Jobs that Went Overseas

The job market finally showed some life in September, but not enough to sidetrack a growing debate over why employment has failed to rebound nearly two years after the last recession ended. The debate intrudes increasingly on election politics, but in all the heated back and forth, an essential statistic is missing: the number of jobs that would exist in the United States today if so many had not escaped abroad.

The Labor Department, in its numerous surveys of employers and employees, has never tried to calculate this trade-off. But the "offshoring" of work has become so noticeable lately that experts in the private sector are now trying to quantify it.

By these initial estimates, at least 15 percent of the 2.81 million jobs lost in America since the decline began have reappeared overseas. Productivity improvements at home — sustaining output with fewer workers — account for the great bulk of the job loss. But the estimates being made suggest that the work sent overseas has been enough to raise the unemployment rate by four-tenths of a percentage point or more, to the present 6.1 percent.

That leakage fuels the political debate. The Bush administration is pushing the Chinese to allow their currency to rise in value, thus increasing the dollar value of wages in that country, a deterrent to locating work abroad. The Democrats agree, but some also call for trade restrictions, and they attack Republicans for cutting from the budget funds to retrain and support laid-off workers in the United States.

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http://nytimes.com/2003/10/05/business/05ECON.html

If the raise in new jobs this last month were companies hiring replacements for people who are going overseas as part of the military. If so, then it's a fake increase, because when the solders return they are entitled to their old jobs back.

No need to blame the Chineese, when we know who is doing this. * needs to go!

If China and the bank of Japan decide not to buy our Treasuries, we're all screwed. Simple as that. So * don't piss them off!

jobs were "temp jobs." No mistake about the temp jobs, just uncertain as to the source.

I forget the exact number but it was a few tens of thousands, a number described by one analyst as "not statisically significant."

before they work long enough to draw unemployment.

...those that have stopped looking for work and are no longer receiving unemployment payments. When that happens, they no longer appear on the state rolls as receiving unemployment...they essentially become "employed", whether they are or not.

The real unemployment number is probably in the range of 8.5% to 9.5%. And that is pretty bad.

how convenient.