STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 28 June

SURPRISE!

I couldn’t help but notice all the surprises in the markets last week. I remember the dumbfounded look on the faces of the Squawk Box crew at CNBC on the morning that CNOOC trumped Chevron’s 16.5 billion bid for UNOCAL by a cool 2 billion . The Squawk Box crew espoused the view that Unocal was perhaps one of the U.S. crown jewels. The squawkers feathers seemed awfully ruffled as they voiced their displeasure, heck scorn, that the Chinese would have such nerve. They strutted their feathers like peacocks, voicing their indignation – preening for the cameras - muttering about the nerve of someone trying to spend their US dollars in such a fashion. The head squawker, Mark Haines, voicing his displeasure about the proposed CNOOC bid claimed,

“To me, it’s all about two things … national security and a level playing field, in that order. Oil is now a strategic asset….”

I was most surprised to learn that oil had only now become a strategic asset. Then, who will ever forget the look on the faces of Alan Greenspan and Treasury Secretary John Snow in front of the Senate Finance Committee up on Capitol Hill? I wonder if they were really surprised at the ‘raking over the coals’ they both got? After all, at the end of it, John Snow chimed in with,

"We're not satisfied with this situation at all."

-cut-

Surprisingly, or perhaps not, the Senators didn’t seem preoccupied with the state of the overall international financial system at all; these guys wanted answers and explanations as to how America got themselves into the bind they are in and what they were going to do about it. Surprisingly, there doesn’t seem to be any easy answers.

more good stuff...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

...it'll probably take twice that amount of time to get us out of it, if we can get out of it at all.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.88 Change +0.43 (+0.49%)

US Dollar Implied Net Longs Lose Ground

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1855&Itemid=39

US Dollar Index: Implied dollar positioning reversed previous sentiment and dipped 38 percent lower losing 50,265. Traders siding with non-dollar denominations increased Canadian and Australian dollar long positions while maintaining a short majority in the Swiss. Gaining 502 contracts, total open interest rose to 29,184.

<snip>

JPY: Net short positioning remains strong in light of an 11,920 contract decline to 49,102 on the short side. Comparatively, long interest added 2,137 to total 11,128 contracts. Although declining 19 percent, selling pressure remains on open interest of 139,726 contracts.

...more...

Dollar Launches Surprise Countermove

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1866&Itemid=39

EUR/USD – Euro bulls managed to push the pair toward the 1.2200 figure, but were forced to fall back by the greenback longs. As the pair remains in the upward momentum, a break above the 1.2200 level will most likely see the single currency test the offers above the 1.2300 handle. Indicators signal a trend reversal with ADX (DMI) on the daily chart to 31.40. Stochastic is neutral on the daily chart at 35.81. The Stochastic on the dealer (4HR) chart is above the oversold line at 89.21. RSI is neutral on the daily chart at 42.66 with the 4-hour chart RSI also neutral at 56.40. MACD is pointing upward below the zero line on the daily chart and is pointing upward above the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart. In case the reversal fails greenback longs will most likely resume their advance and push the pair below the psychologically important 1.2000 figure.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen remained in an upward momentum with dollar longs managing to push the pair toward the psychologically important 110.00 figure. A failure by the greenback bulls to stage a breakout above the 110.00 handle will most likely see the yen traders take an upper hand and push the pair lower toward the 108.50 level. Indicators signal trend reversal, with ADX (DMI) dropping to 29.25. Stochastic is treading below the overbought level on the daily chart at 73.59 while the Stochastic on the 4-hour chart is in oversold territory at 85.38, thus providing yen bulls with a chance to mount a counterattack. RSI is neutral at 61.34 on the daily chart, with dealer (4HR) chart also neutral at 65.31. MACD is treading flatly above the zero line on the daily chart, while the MACD on the (4HR) chart is pointing upward above the zero line.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. consumer confidence index rose to a three-year high of 105.8 in June, the Conference Board said Tuesday. Economists were expecting the index to rise to 104.1 from a revised 103.1 in May. The present situation index rose to 120.7 in June from 117.8 in May, while the expectations index increased to 95.8 in June from 93.4 in May. The improvement "suggests that business activity and labor market activity will continue to pick up over the next several months," said Lynn Franco, director of the board's consumer research unit. For the first time in nearly three years, the proportion of consumers who believe jobs are plentiful exceeded the number who think jobs are hard to get.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38531.416764456-837403315&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=&value=&categories=&

I'd like to meet these people....

I don't think you want to.

You're likely to never see the light of day again.



Can you say, "rendition"?


:scared:

Drinking, using to see the sunshine-y world that they see....

:shrug:

But then again, I live in Lala Land, California, so these things are sometimes difficult to gauge out here..

* can say the economy is responding well.


I mean, the highest consumer confidence level in 3 years??? :wtf:



There's some book cooking going on.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0. Expectations remain set for the cash market to open higher, as futures indications hold steady above fair value... Meanwhile, chip stocks should be in focus after Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) filed an antitrust suit against Intel (INTC)... Drug stocks could get a boost after Wyeth (WYE) raised its FY05 EPS outlook while a report that showed Chinese steel exports slowed in May could help U.S. steel producers recover some lost ground

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 10,340.58 +49.80 (+0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,055.66 +10.46 (+0.51%)
S&P 500 1,195.63 +4.94 (+0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 39.42 +0.40 (+1.03%)

Oil slipped slightly below $60. Oh, yeah...and buyers are confident Consumer Confidence will be up.

I kid you not.

"Honey, grab the kids! We're going to go fill up the RV!

Oh, and get my broker on the phone!"

in a row. Overall though, valuations are fairly reasonable.

Dow 10,359.29 +68.51 (+0.67%)
Nasdaq 2,061.13 +15.93 (+0.78%)
S&P 500 1,197.68 +6.99 (+0.59%)
10-Yr Bond 39.37 +0.35 (+0.90%)
NYSE Volume 282,227,000
Nasdaq Volume 321,101,000

Hey, at this rate, we might even see the markets get back up to where they were...Friday!

Dow 10,348.09 +57.31 (+0.56%)
Nasdaq 2,058.59 +13.39 (+0.65%)
S&P 500 1,197.22 +6.53 (+0.55%)
10-Yr Bond 39.44 +0.42 (+1.08%)
NYSE Volume 531,884,000
Nasdaq Volume 546,969,000

10:30AM: Equities continue to strengthen as buyers rally around a better than expected confidence report... At the top of the hour, the Conference Board showed that consumer confidence in June rose to 105.8 - a three-year high; above expectations of 104.0 and an upwardly revised May figure of 103.1 (from 102.2)... Investors are also taking notice of the fact that a two-month (May-June) gain of 8.5% more than offsets the three-month (Jan-April) decline of 7.2%... Bonds, however, have slipped in response to the data, as the 10-year note is now off 11 ticks to yield 3.94%... NYSE Adv/Dec 2062/783, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1880/723

:hi:

We used to have triple attacks, with me, UIA and 54 posting in a troika!

:hi:

Dow 10,350.85 +60.07 (+0.58%)
Nasdaq 2,058.88 +13.68 (+0.67%)
S&P 500 1,197.41 +6.72 (+0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 3.957 +0.55 (+1.41%)

NYSE Volume 567,194,000
Nasdaq Volume 574,769,000

10:30AM: Equities continue to strengthen as buyers rally around a better than expected confidence report... At the top of the hour, the Conference Board showed that consumer confidence in June rose to 105.8 - a three-year high; above expectations of 104.0 and an upwardly revised May figure of 103.1 (from 102.2)... Investors are also taking notice of the fact that a two-month (May-June) gain of 8.5% more than offsets the three-month (Jan-April) decline of 7.2%... Bonds, however, have slipped in response to the data, as the 10-year note is now off 11 ticks to yield 3.94%... NYSE Adv/Dec 2062/783, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1880/723

10:00AM: Market extends its reach into positive territory as the bulk of sector leadership remains positive... Despite a strengthening dollar, the Materials sector has paced the way higher, as steel stocks get a boost after a report showed Chinese steel exports slowed in May... Technology has been strong across the board, led by gains in semiconductor, while a rebound in transports and conglomerates has provided a lift to Industrials... Health Care has posted a modest gain, benefiting from a 4.30% surge in shares of Wyeth (WYE 44.70 +1.70), which raised its FY05 earnings outlook...

Even though profit-taking in bonds has lifted benchmark yields, interest-rate sensitive areas like Financial and Utilities have also traded higher... Energy, however, has traded lower as consolidation in crude oil continues... SOX +0.7, NYSE Adv/Dec 1737/782, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1626/746

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/27/opinion/27krugman.html?n=Top%2fOpinion%2fEditorials%20and%20Op%2dEd%2fOp%2dEd%2fColumnists%2fPaul%20Krugman

Selected paragraphs...

There's nothing shocking per se about the fact that Chinese buyers are now seeking control over some American companies. After all, there's no natural law that says Americans will always be in charge. Power usually ends up in the hands of those who hold the purse strings. America, which imports far more than it exports, has been living for years on borrowed funds, and lately China has been buying many of our I.O.U.'s.

<snip>
Unocal sounds, in other words, like exactly the kind of company the Chinese government might want to control if it envisions a sort of "great game" in which major economic powers scramble for access to far-flung oil and natural gas reserves. (Buying a company is a lot cheaper, in lives and money, than invading an oil-producing country.) So the Unocal story gains extra resonance from the latest surge in oil prices.

If it were up to me, I'd block the Chinese bid for Unocal. But it would be a lot easier to take that position if the United States weren't so dependent on China right now, not just to buy our I.O.U.'s, but to help us deal with North Korea now that our military is bogged down in Iraq.

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-06-28T114454Z_01_NAT001661_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-RETAIL-ICSC-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - U.S. chain store retail sales fell in the latest week, as the demand for seasonal goods slowed on a week-over-week basis, but the sales pace on a year-over-year basis surged, a retail report said on Tuesday.

Sales fell 0.6 percent in the week ended June 25, compared with a 0.1 percent rise the previous week, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS said in a joint report.

Compared with the same week a year ago, sales surged to a 4.2 percent increase after a 3.7 percent rise the preceding week -- the strongest since April 2.

"Hot weather continued to lift demand for seasonal goods, but less so compared to last week," said Michael Niemira, ICSC's chief economist and director of research.

"Even though we saw sales decline on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week, the year-over-year pace of sales was healthy and pointed to good performance for the month as a whole. Given this, ICSC expects the monthly comp-store sales performance will increase by about 4.5 percent -- the strongest since February's 4.7 percent increase," Niemira added.

...more...

I am so glad that everyone is so "confident"!

http://sanantonio.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/stories/2005/06/27/daily5.html?jst=b_ln_hl

Harte-Hanks Inc. plans to lay off 189 employees at its call center in Austin, according to a filing with the Texas Workforce Commission.

In a letter to the commission, San Antonio-based Harte-Hanks (NYSE: HHS) blames the impending layoffs on "a significant drop in business activity."

Layoffs at the call center at 11525 Stonehollow Drive are expected to begin Aug. 16 and end Aug. 31, according to the letter. Most of the employees to be laid off are customer-service representatives.

As of March, Harte-Hanks employed more than 890 full-time workers in Austin, according to employment figures supplied to the Austin Business Journal, a sister publication of the San Antonio Business Journal.

...more...

It sure is a good thing that everybody's feeling confident!

http://www.volunteertv.com/Global/story.asp?S=3528820

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. Office supply maker Ampad will lay off 101 workers at its Morristown plant.

The company -- also known as American Pad and Pencil -- makes writing pads, envelopes and other supplies. The Morristown plant currently employs 250 people.Ampad filed a notice with the state Labor and Workforce Development Department saying the layoffs would begin July first and continue through October 21st.The company didn't return calls to The Knoxville News Sentinel.

...more...

And another confidence builder!

Can't imagine why confidence isn't at a ten year high, instead of just the best it's been since...Dubya started a war.

I don't know...do you think my sarcasm is showing today?

12:11
Dow 10,364.82 +74.04 (+0.72%)
Nasdaq 2,062.90 +17.70 (+0.87%)
S&P 500 1,199.06 +8.37 (+0.70%)
10-Yr Bond 39.70 +0.68 (+1.74%)
NYSE Volume 751,290,000
Nasdaq Volume 731,662,000

Dow 10,376.17 +85.39 (+0.83%)
Nasdaq 2,064.37 +19.17 (+0.94%)
S&P 500 1,199.56 +8.87 (+0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 3.959 +0.57 (+1.46%)

NYSE Volume 924,176,000
Nasdaq Volume 875,860,000

why gold is dropping like a rock.....

Dollar at eight-month high vs. yen

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B547BF02F%2DC78D%2D4D42%2D9047%2D8D93C13EF999%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - The U.S. dollar traded at its richest against the yen in more than eight months Tuesday as the surge in oil prices over the past month rekindled concern for the resiliency of the Japanese economy.

In afternoon U.S. trading, the dollar was at 109.82 yen, a gain of 0.5% from late Monday. The dollar traded as high as 109.92 yen during European trading hours.

The greenback advanced 0.7% against the euro, helped by expectations for rising U.S. interest rates and by mixed European economic data. The euro was last fetching $1.2079. The common currency did remain above the 10-month low at under $1.20 that it hit last week.

The dollar was up 0.9% to 1.279 Swiss francs and advanced 0.7% against the British pound, with one pound buying $1.8171.

Oil eased from its record above $60 a barrel hit Monday, but that was little consolation for yen bears. The price of crude has jumped 30% in a month. See Futures Movers.

"This remains a heavy weight on certain global economies, such as Japan, as a prolonged period of high oil prices threatens global growth," said Charmaine Buskas, currency analyst at research firm Economy.com.

...more...

Kind of an un-holy triangle - oil/gold/dollar (jmho)

Dow 10,394.82 +104.04 (+1.01%)
Nasdaq 2,069.98 +24.78 (+1.21%)
S&P 500 1,201.49 +10.80 (+0.91%)
10-Yr Bond 3.976 +0.74 (+1.90%)

NYSE Volume 1,294,385,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,192,830,000

2:30 ET Little changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Meanwhile, even though earnings season doesn't officially begin until Alcoa (AA 26.38 +0.29) reports Q2 results one week from Thursday (July 7), investors have rallied around better than expected earnings from Paychex (PAYX 33.29 +3.27)... Last night, PAYX - today's best performing S&P 500 component - beat analysts' Q4 expectations by $0.03 and issued encouraging FY06 revenue growth of 11-12%... Trading higher in sympathy have been ASF (+3.2%), ADP (+2.8%), CEN (+2.7%) and GVHR (+1.4%)... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2264/949. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 2064/924.

2:00 ET Market continues to put together a solid advance, getting a boost from spirited leadership among a number of blue chips... With the Dow underperforming broader indices like the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 - which in Q2 have gained roughly 1.5%, 3.0% and 2.1%, respectively, versus a loss of 1.4% on the Dow - renewed buying interest heading into the end of the quarter has helped lift several underperforming Dow components (i.e. AA, DIS, IBM, MMM and MRK)... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2242/925. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 2073/875.

1:30 ET Indices spike to new session highs as aggressive profit-taking in oil pushes the commodity below $59/bbl... Now off more than 3.5% on the day with only an hour left until the commodities market closes, further deterioration in crude oil futures ($58.40/bbl -$2.14) has given investors a green light to look for bargains across the board... Transportation, largely influenced by the price of oil and off more than 10% year to date as of yesterday's close, has been one of today's best performing groups, as only 1 of the 20 components (ALEX 45.76 -0.13) in the Dow Jones Transportation Average has traded lower... ..DJTA +1.8%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2250/915. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 2076/867.

1:00 ET More of the same for stocks as a bullish bias remains intact... Advancers on both the NYSE and Nasdaq hold a more than 2 to 1 advantage over decliners while a 3-to-1 ratio of up to down suggests an even more positive tone to trading at both the Big Board and the Composite... Meanwhile, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq continue to trade well above initial support levels but have run into resistance near 10380 and 1201, 2065, respectively... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2217/923. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 2009/900.

12:30 ET No change in the prevailing trend as the afternoon session gets underway and buying remains widespread across most areas... Bonds, however, continue to weaken, posting their largest declines in about two weeks... While a stronger than expected read on June consumer confidence has weighed on the Treasury market, falling oil prices (catalysts behind the recent run-up in bonds) have also prompted traders to lock in profits heading into the FOMC's two-day meeting which begins tomorrow... The 10-year note is now off 17 ticks to yield 3.96%... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2234/876. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 2005/885.
12:00 ET Market holding steady at sharply higher levels as consumer confidence hits a three-year high and oil prices continue to slide... Earlier, June consumer confidence jumped to 105.8, above expectations of 104.0 and an upwardly revised May figure of 103.1 (from 102.2), suggesting that business activity and labor market conditions will continue to ramp over the next several months... Also providing a floor of buying support that has lifted all ten economic sectors into positive territory has been a sell-off in oil... After surging roughly 5.0% over the last three days to record highs, crude oil futures ($59.30/bbl -$1.24) have fallen roughly 2.0% today as traders lock in some profits ahead of tomorrow's weekly inventories report... Still pacing the way to the upside has been the Materials sector amid renewed buying interest in steel stocks following a report that showed Chinese steel exports slowed in May... Also posting gains of more 1.0% has been Consumer Discretionary, getting a boost after Target (TGT 55.74 +1.02) gave an upbeat assessment of June sales, while Industrials has taken advantage of a rebound in transports (i.e. UPS, FDX and BNI) and conglomerates (i.e. GE, MMM and UTX)... Technology has been another bright spot for investors, getting a lift from gains in semiconductor after Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 17.11 +0.46) filed an antitrust suit against Intel (INTC 26.10 +0.24)... Tech stocks have also taken a bullish cue from a 9.1% surge in Paychex (PAYX 32.75 +2.73), which beat analysts' Q4 expectations by $0.03 and issued encouraging FY06 revenue growth of 11-12%... Financial has been an influential leader to the upside, as gains in brokerage and banks offset modest weakness in insurance, with the latter losing ground after Merrill Lynch downgraded Allstate (ALL 59.62 -0.63) on valuation... Another interest-rate sensitive sector shrugging off rising bond yields has been the Utilities sector... Following a six-session rally in Treasurys and a strong read on June consumer confidence, profit-taking has sent the benchmark 10-year note down 13 ticks to yield 3.95%... Health Care has posted a modest gain, benefiting from strength in biotech, medical equipment and drug... Drug stocks have benefited from a 4.2% surge in shares of Wyeth (WYE 44.70 +1.70), which raised its FY05 earnings outlook... Even Energy has traded higher, recently inching into positive territory... Offsetting some of the weakness related to falling oil prices has been a 1.1% advance in ChevronTexaco (CVX 57.90 +0.65) after Treasury Secretary John Snow said it was too early to start a review of CNOOC's $18.5 bln cash bid for Unocal (UCL 66.10 +0.32)... ..DJTA +1.5%. ..DJUA +0.7%. ..SOX +0.5%. ..DOT +0.6%. ..XOI +0.2%. ..BTK +1.4%. ..Nasdaq 100 +0.7%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +0.9%. ..Russell 2000 +1.4%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2211/851. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1976/867.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4FAED60C%2D329B%2D48DA%2DBBF3%2D633C04D127EB%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Economists at big U.S. banks and bond brokers think the market is too pessimistic about U.S. growth.

A majority of the 29 economists on the Bond Market Association's economic advisory committee think solid growth will force the Federal Reserve to raise rates higher than current market expectations.

And they think oil prices will decline over the next year, rather than rise as futures markets anticipate.

"This expansion has pretty strong roots," said Robert DiClemente, an economist at Citigroup Global Markets and the chairman of the industry's group's advisory committee. "The economy's underlying strength has been underestimated throughout this recovery.

The difference between the economists' predictions and the implied forecasts of futures prices is "strikingly different," he said.

The economists get together twice a year to forecast the economy, inflation and interest rates. They hail from all the main banks and securities dealers that buy and sell fixed income securities.

...more...

Don't kill Tinkerbell!

The ones we note the revisions of on a daily basis? :eyes:

O-kay, then!

How's the wrist?

It's great to have you back here at the SMW :hug:

You have been sorely missed!

:pals:

Yeppers, these are the folks that spew the spin and lies and bad numbers on a daily/weekly/monthly/yearly basis.

That they are given any credibility astounds me.

:banghead:

For those oil enthusiasts who believe that petroleum will remain abundant for decades to come - among them President George W Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, and their many friends in the oil industry - any talk of an imminent "peak" in global oil production and an ensuing decline can be easily countered with a simple mantra: "Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia."



Not only will the Saudis pump extra oil now to alleviate global shortages, it is claimed, but they will keep pumping more in the years ahead to quench our insatiable thirst for energy. And when the kingdom's existing fields run dry, lo, they will begin pumping from other fields that are just waiting to be exploited. We ordinary folk need have no worries about oil scarcity, because Saudi Arabia can satisfy our current and future needs. This is, in fact, the basis for the Bush administration's contention that we can continue to increase our yearly consumption of oil, rather than conserve what's left and begin the transition to a post-petroleum economy. Hallelujah for Saudi Arabia!

But now, from an unexpected source, comes a devastating challenge to this powerful dogma: in a newly released book, investment banker Matthew R Simmons convincingly demonstrates that, far from being capable of increasing its output,
Saudi Arabia is about to face the exhaustion of its giant fields and, in the relatively near future, will probably experience a sharp decline in output. "There is only a small probability that Saudi Arabia will ever deliver the quantities of petroleum that are assigned to it in all the major forecasts of world oil production and consumption," Simmons writes in Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. "Saudi Arabian production," he adds, italicizing his claims to drive home his point, "is at or very near its peak sustainable volume ... and it is likely to go into decline in the very foreseeable future."

snip..

First, a few words about the author of Twilight in the Desert. Matthew ("Matt") Simmons is not a militant environmentalist or anti-oil partisan; he is chairman and chief executive officer of one of the nation's leading oil-industry investment banks, Simmons & Company International. For decades, Simmons has been pouring billions of dollars into the energy business, financing the exploration and development of new oil reservoirs. In the process, he has become a friend and associate of many of the top figures in the oil industry, including Bush and Cheney. He has also accumulated a vast storehouse of information about the world's major oilfields, the prospects for new discoveries, and the techniques for extracting and marketing petroleum. There is virtually no figure better equipped than Simmons to assess the state of the world's oil supply. And this is why his assessment of Saudi Arabia's oil production capacity is so devastating.

Essentially, Simmons' argument boils down to four major points:

# Most of Saudi Arabia's oil output is generated by a few giant fields, of which Ghawar - the world's largest - is the most prolific.
# These giant fields were first developed 40 to 50 years ago, and have since given up much of their easily extracted petroleum.
# To maintain high levels of production in these fields, the Saudis have come to rely increasingly on the use of water injection and other secondary recovery methods to compensate for the drop in natural field pressure.
# As time goes on, the ratio of water to oil in these underground fields rises to the point where further oil extraction becomes difficult, if not impossible. To top it all off, there is very little reason to assume that future Saudi exploration will result in the discovery of new fields to replace those now in decline.


snipp..

Given the high stakes involved, there is no doubt that intense efforts will be made to refute Simmons' findings. With the publication of his book, however, it will no longer be possible for oil aficionados simply to chant "Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia" and convince us that everything is all right in the oil world. Through his scrupulous research, Simmons has convincingly demonstrated that - because all is not well with Saudi Arabia's giant oilfields - the global energy situation can only go downhill from here. From now on, those who believe that oil will remain abundant indefinitely are the ones who must produce irrefutable evidence that Saudi Arabia's fields are, in fact, capable of achieving higher levels of output.


more..




http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GF29Ak01.html

I am a third the way into it. It is refreshing to read a Peak related book coming from an author with such extensive background in Oil, it should be a wake-up call for us, but likely won't.

Dow 10,405.63 +114.85 (+1.12%)
Nasdaq 2,069.89 +24.69 (+1.21%)
S&P 500 1,201.57 +10.88 (+0.91%)
10-Yr Bond 3.976 +0.74 (+1.90%)

NYSE Volume 1,758,202,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,618,468,000

The market rebounded nicely following six straight declines on the Dow, as a three-year high in consumer confidence and plummeting oil prices underpinned a floor of buying support that lifted virtually every sector... While stocks opened modestly higher in anticipation of a second straight increase in monthly sentiment, investors got their wish just after the market opened, when the Conference Board showed that improving business activity and expectations of rising incomes helped boost consumer confidence in June to 105.8 (consensus 104.0)... Market participants also took note of the fact that the 8.5% two-month (May-June) gain more than offsets the four-month (Jan-April) decline of 7.2%... Also giving investors the green light to look for bargains following recent market weakness was a 3.9% drubbing in crude oil futures ($58.20/bbl -$2.34)... Aggressive profit-taking in oil ahead of tomorrow's weekly inventories report pushed the commodity below $59/bbl for the first time since June 23, easing concerns about slowing economic growth and pressure on corporate earnings heading into the end of the quarter... To that end, the perception that the market may be temporarily oversold, coupled with some end of the quarter window dressing, acted as contributing factors behind the broad-based buying efforts... Meanwhile, the Industrials sector paced the way higher, benefiting largely from a rebound in Transportation, which, as of yesterday's close, was off more than 10% year to date... Notable movers were UPS, FDX, BNI, UNP and several airlines while strong gains from conglomerates like GE, UTX and HON also provided support... Another influential economic sector posting a gain of more than 1.0% was Technology... Of the 88 components making up Technology, Paychex (PAYX 33.01 +2.99) - also the best performing S&P component - led the charge with a 10% gain... Last night, PAYX beat analysts' Q4 expectations by $0.03 and guided FY06 revenue growth of 11-12%, prompting an upgrade at Prudential, upbeat comments from CIBC and a rebound in rival Automatic Data Processing (ADP 42.38 +1.25)... Gains were also seen in the Software space, as Oracle (ORCL 12.86 +0.32) climbed ahead of its Q4 earnings report while BMC Software (BMC 17.38 +0.88) surged after it was upgraded to Neutral (from Reduce) at UBS and Piper Jaffray said recent weakness presents a buying opportunity... Chip stocks were also a focal point after Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 17.70 +1.05) filed an antitrust suit against Intel (INTC 26.33 +0.47)... Shrugging off the adverse impact a strengthening greenback typically has on dollar-denominated commodities was the Materials sector, as oversold conditions in several areas (i.e. steel, aluminum, chemicals) prompted buyers to look for bargains... Steel, which had lost about 24% in Q2 and was still down over 20% year to date, got an additional boost after a report showed Chinese steel exports slowed in May... Consumer Discretionary also surged amid rotation into Retail (+1.9%) stocks ahead of next Thursday's (July 7) Same Store Sales reports - as evidenced by a 1.8% surge in Target (TGT 55.67 +0.95) after giving an upbeat assessment of June sales - and a gain of 2.3% in Homebuilding... Financial was also an influential leader to the upside, as gains in brokerage and banks offset modest weakness in insurance... Sovereign Banc (SOV 22.37 +0.93) guided Q2 EPS above consensus while Merrill Lynch downgraded Allstate (ALL 59.73 -0.52) on valuation... Another interest-rate sensitive sector shrugging off rising bond yields was the Utilities sector... Exelon Corp. (EXC 51.35 +0.60) affirmed FY05 non-GAAP earnings guidance while investors seeking income continued to embrace recent comments from billionaire Warren Buffett regarding his willingness to invest more than $15 bln into utilities... Following a six-session rally in Treasurys, a strong read on June consumer confidence and falling oil prices (catalysts behind the recent run-up in bonds), profit-taking closed the benchmark 10-year note down 16 ticks to yield 3.96%... Health Care posted a strong gain, benefiting from strength in biotech, medical equipment and drug... Drug stocks benefited largely from a 4.2% surge in shares of Wyeth (WYE 44.89 +1.89), which raised its FY05 earnings outlook... Energy, however, finished the day on a downbeat note following the largest decline in crude oil prices in roughly almost months... ..DJTA +2.5%. ..DJUA +1.0%. ..SOX +0.9%. ..DOT +0.8%. ..XOI -1.1%. ..BTK +2.3%. ..Nasdaq 100 +1.0%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +1.2%. ..Russell 2000 +2.1%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2372/903. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 2218/842.