STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 29 June

Last week, the negative divergences that had dominated the technical signature of the price action for almost four weeks, finally won out and the indices finished with losses ranging between 2%--as was the case with the SP--and 3%--as was the case with NASDAQ. Moreover, all the technical indicators confirmed the decline by making lower lows, implying that the odds are better than even in favor of some additional price weakness. The real question now is whether last week's "break" signifies the end of the rally that started back in late April, or is just a sharp pullback within an ongoing bull move.

We can get some important clues by closely examining the chart pattern for NASDAQ. Notice that so far the pattern of the advance off the April lows has shown a remarkable resemblance to the pattern of the advance off the August '04 lows. Moreover, eight weeks into that rally--the week of 10-14-04--we had a 45 point decline in NASDAQ, a 27 point decline in the SP, and a 230 point decline in the Dow, very closely resembling last week's declines, which also happened to be the eighth week since the beginning of the rally in late April!

If the rally off the April lows is similar in duration and magnitude to the rally off the August '04 lows, then NASDAQ ought not to close below 2000 anytime during the next two weeks, and that would be the worst case scenario. In fact, it shouldn't even close below 2025. So, if NASDAQ manages to hold above 2000-2025 and reverses to the upside, then the odds will favor the bullish case, and a subsequent close above 2100 would provide the confirmation.

On the other hand, if sometime during the next 10 trading days we get a close below 2000, then the odds will favor the bearish case, implying that the rally has failed and we ought to be looking for a further decline to the 1925-1900 zone.

more... http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

back in 2000 that neither he nor Cheney had any investments in the stock market, have thought of that often in light of their desire to have all of us invest our Social Security retirement accounts in the market.

from 1996

http://www.opensecrets.org/pfds/candlook.asp?cid=N00008072

(warning pdf formats after initial link for those of us with dial-up)

The blind trust was established around 1990 to conceal his father's fortune. Since then, the sons-of-the-B* have been rolled into the fold of beneficiaries. The seed money for the trust came from granddaddy Prescott's days at Brown Brothers Harriman when he raised capital for Hitler's projects.

Beyond that - I am at a loss for specifics. Of course, the PDFs as noted above have more relevant info.

... in the association between the new pope and Neil Bush. The account they offered as for donations to their mutual charity (which is not actually a non-profit) for "republishing religious texts" is actually a trust with... UBS. Union Banque Suisse. Does UBS have its roots in UBC? I dunno, but I wonder sometimes....

Got wood?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.16 Change +0.17 (+0.19%)

Dollar Continues To Press Its Luck

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1899&Itemid=39

EUR/USD – Euro longs once again were stunned by the audacity of the dollar bulls as greenback traders managed to push the pair below the 1.2100 figure. As the price action heats up, euro traders will most likely manage to push the pair back toward the 1.2100 handle with a further momentum most likely targeting the 1.2150 level. Indicators signal a trend reversal with ADX (DMI) on the daily chart to 30.35. Stochastic is neutral on the daily chart at 32.12. The Stochastic on the dealer (4HR) chart is neutral at 42.82. RSI is neutral on the daily chart at 38.85 with the 4-hour chart RSI also neutral at 40.49. MACD is treading flatly deep below the zero line on the daily chart and is pointing downward below the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart. In case the reversal fails greenback longs will most likely resume their advance and push the pair below the psychologically important 1.2000 figure.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen have finally given up the 110.00 figure to the dollar longs with the pair revisiting the highs not seen since last October. As dollar longs continue to press with their advance against the yen, move to the upside by the greenback will most likely going to be capped around 110.60-70 zone. As the dollar advance begins to falter, a countermove by the yen longs will most likely see the pair fall back toward the 109.00 figure. Indicators signal trend reversal, with ADX (DMI) dropping to 31.73. Stochastic is treading below the overbought level on the daily chart at 76.90 while the Stochastic on the 4-hour chart is in oversold territory at 89.70, thus providing yen bulls with a chance to mount a counterattack. RSI is neutral at 63.59 on the daily chart, while the dealer (4HR) chart is treading below the overbought line at 69.92. MACD is pointing upward above the zero line on the daily chart, while the MACD on the (4HR) chart is also pointing upward above the zero line.

...more...

Did A Boost In Personal Consumption Drive U.S. Economic Growth?

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1898&Itemid=39

excerpt:

U.S. Annualized GDP (1QF)(12:30GMT, 8:30EDT)
Consensus: 3.7%
Previous: 3.5%

Outlook: The market expects a further revision to the first quarter GDP growth rate in the final release due Wednesday. Updated international trade figures point to a better net export performance, which was the major drag on growth in the previous releases. Moreover, higher inventory build, stronger residential investment, and modestly higher consumer spending are all expected sources to contribute substantively to the higher final figure. As a result, speculation mounts as a stronger economy and faster inflation could prompt Fed policy makers in considering further rate hike considerations, while a slowdown could lead to a pause in the interest rate tightening cycle.

Previous: The advance estimate of first quarter growth in GDP at 3.1 percent was the slowest in two years and below market expectations of a 3.5 percent growth rate. The previous release highlighted concerns about a "soft patch" in the economy linked in part to surging oil prices. Growth has remained close to what economists consider normal or "trend" growth, but slightly below the 4.4 percent pace of 2004. Business investment slowed sharply from the fourth quarter while investments in equipment and software experienced the slowest activity in two years. Additionally, the annualized trade deficit of $717.6 billion dollars eroded 1.5 percentage points from overall output, creating the largest drag on expansion in two years.


U.S. Personal Consumption (1QF)(12:30GMT, 8:30EDT)
Consensus: 3.7%
Previous: 3.6%

Outlook: U.S. personal consumption expectations were revised up as increased payrolls may have driven spending. Wages and salaries grew by $93 billion at an annual rate for the first quarter of 2005. This comes after fourth quarter 2004 salary growth was revised up to a $136 billion annual rate, double previous government estimates. Consumer spending, representing three-quarters of the U.S. economy, is said to have helped GDP grow at a 3.5 percent annual rate for the first quarter. A jump in personal consumption figures could boost sentiment for the U.S. economy, especially after an earlier upside surprise in consumer confidence. With the Fed expected to raise rates by 25 basis points on Thursday to continue their tightening trend, further increases to 3.5 percent may be needed in light of rising energy costs and any better than expected suggestions of economic expansion.

Previous: Personal consumption expanded at a 3.6 percent annual pace in the final quarter of 2004 to cap the year’s growth at 3.8 percent. Analysts forecast a spending increase of 3.5 percent in 2005, but more recent data points to potentially higher growth. Improving optimism in the U.S. economy could boost the dollar’s standing against other major currencies. If European data continues to weaken further, near term appreciation could be easily achievable.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

Dollar holds gain ahead of Fed decision

HICAGO (MarketWatch) - The dollar maintained a slim gain against the euro and traded at 10-month highs against the yen on Wednesday ahead of what's expected to be a ninth U.S. interest-rate hike announced Thursday.

The currency market showed little response to a report that showed first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product increased at a 3.8% annual rate, matching the growth rate in the fourth quarter.

-cut-

The Fed, which will wrap up a two-day meeting on Thursday, is expected to raise U.S. rates to 3.25% from 3%. That would further expand the already dollar-positive rate differential to the European Central Bank's 2% target rate.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Currencies&siteid=mktw&dist=

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38532.3542094213-837442348&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - First-quarter U.S. gross domestic product increased at a 3.8% annual rate, matching the 3.8% rate in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday in its second revision to GDP. Last month, the government estimated first-quarter growth at 3.5%. Economists were expecting a revision to 3.7%. Growth in the first three months of the year was led by consumer spending, which increased 3.6%. Business investment increased 4.1%, its lowest growth rate in two years. Inventory building added 0.7 percentage points to growth. The trade gap subtracted 0.6 percentage points from growth.

(adding line items on edit)

8:30am 06/29/05 U.S. Q1 CORPORATE PROFITS UP 15.4% YEAR-ON-YEAR

8:30am 06/29/05 U.S. Q1 RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT UP 11.5%

8:30am 06/29/05 U.S. Q1 BUSINESS INVESTMENT UP 4.1%, LEAST IN 2 YEARS

8:30am 06/29/05 U.S. Q1 CONSUMER SPENDING UP 3.6%

8:30am 06/29/05 U.S. Q1 FINAL SALES INCREASE 3%

8:30am 06/29/05 U.S. Q1 CORE PCE PRICE INDEX UP 2% ANNUALIZED

8:30am 06/29/05 GDP REVISIONS DUE TO EXPORTS, HOMEBUILDING

8:30am 06/29/05 U.S. Q1 GDP REVISED TO 3.8% ANNUAL VS. 3.5% PREVIOUS

What numbers are you posting? The first quarter of 2005 had a GDP increase of 3.8%. So did the 4th quarter of 2004. Where is the 3.5% coming from?

http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicReleases/gdp.htm

you can see the entire calendar here:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Thanks for the clarification. I posted something earlier today on the GDP. All of the measures of consumer spending decreased. Most indexes of investment decreased as well. The major increases were in inventories and residential investment.

It's my opinion that the GDP has overstated economic growth, and the health of our economy. Here's my own summary:


Today's published GDP figure of 3.8%, is the same as the last quarter of 2004. But this is misleading. The growth of the 2/3's of economic activity due to consumer spending is slowing. The "final sales" growth, which many consider a better indicator of "growth," has declined for the 2nd straight quarter. In addition, growth of most "investment" parameters is also slowing.

The link to these numbers can be found at Briefing.com's GDP section at:
http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicReleases/gdp.htm

As previously stated, 1st quarter GDP has now been revised upward to 3.8%. Again, this is the same as the 4th quarter of 2004. However, of the multiple factors used to compute this number, only 2 have increased significantly. The 1st of these is INVENTORIES, which increased from $47.2 billion in the 4th quarter of 2004 to $66.8 billion in the 1st quarter in 2005. This is a 42% increase over the previous quarter. The 2nd major increase was in "residential investment." (Housing & Real Estate) Here there was a 338% growth in the 1st quarter of 2005, from 3.4% in Q4, 2004 to 11.5% for Q1 of 2005.

Final sales growth declined for the 2nd straight quarter. Final sales growth decreased to 3.0% from the 4th quarter's 3.4%. This marks a 12% DECREASE. The 4th quarter's final sales also decreased from the 3rd quarter's 5.0%. Thus, GDP sales are not keeping up with the measured GDP. Ultimately, the GDP must be sold to create profits. The declining "final sales" growth, in relation to the the total GDP, suggests the GDP is overestimating economic growth.

All other measures of consumer spending declined as well. Total personal consumption spending (PCE) growth decreased to 3.6% from the 4th quarter's 4.2%. All 3 components of PCE declined as well. Durable goods sales growth decreased 54%, declining from 3.9% in the 4th quarter to 1.9% for Q1 of 2005. Nondurable goods and services also decreased.

Nonresidential investment growth also decreased 72%, from 14.5% in Q4 of 2004, to 4.1% in the 1st quarter of 2005. Not only did growth in nonresidential investment not increase, it actually decreased in Q1 of 2005. The growth rate was actually -2.4%. Growth in equipment and software investment decreased from 18.4% in Q4, to 6.1% in Q1 of 2005.

Thus, GDP growth was maintained almost exclusively from increased real estate investment and increased unsold inventories. All indexes of consumer spending growth decreased. This comes as no surprise, considering inflation-adjusted wages also decreased during that time. Decreased consumer spending power usually decreases consumer spending.

It appears the calculated GDP has again overstated actual economic growth. Goods are being produced in excess of what consumers are purchasing. Excessive goods production drives down demand for labor to produce goods. This decreases the number of employed workers, as well as wages of those who are still employed. This results in a further decrease in the aggregate consumer income necessary to purchase goods.

Growth of inventories and real estate investment are all that have increased during the 1st quarter of 2005. Does this really represent economic "growth"? Doesn't declining growth in consumer spending imply an economic slowdown? Do isolated increases in unsold goods and real estate investment truly indicate economic growth? Can unsold goods and real estate investment really be substituted for consumer spending? Can profits lost from declining goods sales be replaced by production and investment increases? How does that increase profits? Doesn't someone have to buy products for profits to be made?

10:31am 06/29/05 U.S. CRUDE STKS UP 1.1 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

10:31am 06/29/05 U.S. GASOLINE STKS UP 300,000 BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

10:31am 06/29/05 U.S. DISTILLATE STKS UP 1.7 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38532.4504699653-837449980&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories for the week ended June 24 rose by 2.9 million barrels. Motor gasoline inventories climbed 464,000 barrels and distillate stocks were up 2 million barrels. August crude is down 85 cents at $57.35 a barrel in New York after tapping a $56.90 low.

I do believe this is the very first time that I have seen the DOE and API agree on the inventories :eyes:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-06-29T113340Z_01_N10103329_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-MORTGAGES-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) - Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell for the second week in a row despite a fall in the 30-year mortgage rate to a 15-month low, an industry group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said both refinancing and purchasing mortgage activity dipped in the week ending June 24 after falling substantially in the preceding week.

The MBA said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity decreased 1.1 percent to 778.4, adding to the previous week's 11.3 percent loss.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications dropped 1.8 percent to 2529.2, after falling 13.2 percent the prior week.

...more...

The MBA's purchase index, a gauge of loan requests for home purchases, fell 0.4 percent to 477.4, after dropping 9.4 percent the previous week.

Thanks for the link. It looks like the housing bubble is starting to leak.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38532.5511150231-837460170&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Treasury notes and bonds were weaker along the maturity spectrum Wednesday afternoon. The market had turned lower around midday and remained there after the government's auction of 2-year notes drew less demand than that seen a month ago, although better than the average of the last several auctions. The market, which gained earlier on tame inflation data, had turned lower as traders dug in for Thursday's expected interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve. The 10-year note was down 3/32 at 101 5/32, yielding 3.98%. The 2-year note already in circulation was unchanged at 99 23/32, yielding 3.66%.

So the auctions have been going badly for quite a while now?????

:wtf:

Nobody wants to join a losing team. Someday, other countries will offer the U.S. the equivalent of 'payday loans'.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDE279736%2D58E0%2D4DBA%2D9226%2DD9876A71DE67%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- General Mills Inc.'s quarterly net income jumped 65%, helped by the sale of its partnerships in snacks and barbecue joint ventures, but soggy cereal sales and higher costs meant the company just missed Wall Street's target.

For the fiscal fourth quarter, General Mills (GIS: news, chart, profile) , of Minneapolis, reported net income of $460 million, or $1.14 a share, up from $278 million, or 68 cents, in the year-earlier period.

Excluding a gain from the sale of its interest in Snack Ventures Europe and Lloyd's Barbeque Buckets, as well as gains and costs from debt repurchases and other items, earnings would have been 64 cents a share, or 1 cent shy of analysts' average estimate, according to Thomson First Call.

The packaged foods company, whose brands include Cheerios and Wheaties cereals, Progresso soups and Yoplait yogurt, said sales for the period ended May 29 were $2.72 billion, down 2.5% from $2.79 billion in last year's fourth quarter.

...more...

I guess that the "consumer" wasn't spending it's money on food. Maybe it was the cost of fuel that made spending increase. Nah... that wouldn't be the case - remember there's no inflation, so quit saying that!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B81DCEBD5%2D9C34%2D4E7F%2D860A%2DCDC9E5463482%7D

excerpt:

Reiss said trading has been difficult in Europe this year because gloomy economic conditions, worsened by the recent spike in crude oil prices, have left consumers looking to make savings on basic household goods.

"The price of petrol of has gone up but no one is using their mobile phone any less," the executive said. "No one is canceling their satellite TV subscriptions or their high-speed Internet connection. Customers instead are looking to make savings on the consumable products they buy every day."

The current difficult trading conditions are having an across-the-board impact on the retail industry, Reiss said.

"No format is immune," he said. "Even the... discounters have seen slowing - and in some cases negative - trends in like-for-like sales."

...more...

hmmmm.......

Dow 10,423.51 +17.88 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,075.18 +5.29 (+0.26%)
S&P 500 1,203.53 +1.96 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 39.38 -0.38 (-0.96%)
NYSE Volume 32,857,000
Nasdaq Volume 84,512,000

Dow 10,410.32 +4.69 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,074.54 +4.65 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,202.67 +1.10 (+0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 3.934 -0.42 (-1.06%)

NYSE Volume 116,010,000
Nasdaq Volume 183,172,000

9:40 ET Decent follow-through seen in stocks, as bullish revisions to Q1 GDP show the economy grew faster than previously expected, but gains are modest at best ahead of FOMC meeting... Earlier the Commerce Dept. reported a second (and final) revision to Q1 real GDP, putting the final figure at 3.8%, which was higher than forecasts of 3.7%, a prior read of 3.5% and well above the long-term trend of about 3.1%... The GDP chain deflator (inflation measure), which was revised lower to 2.9% (from 3.2%), has provided some early support for stocks, while the tame inflation data have also given bonds a boost... The 10-year note is up 8 ticks to yield 3.93%... ..NYSE Adv/Dec /. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec /.

http://www.sierratimes.com/05/06/29/68_229_38_110_53791.htm

excerpt:

For years the U.S. government has had restrictions placed upon ownership of industries such as airlines, the media, and military contractors, although China is now a subcontractor for many U.S. military weapons manufacturers. But never has the U.S. government entertained outside ownership of U.S. assets by a Communist regime which continues to build up its military arsenal as its economy has grown ten-fold over the past decade. And in order to assure the continual growth of its manufacturing base, largely from the U.S. and the West, China needs oil. Second only to the U.S. in consumption of energy, China now is the fastest growing consumer of oil.

Of importance is that more than half of Unocal’s reserves are concentrated in Southeast Asia and has a pipeline hooked up to strategic American oil reserves as well as a rare-earth mine which remains the only one in the U.S. William A. Reinsch, president of the National Foreign Trade Council states “When you talk about energy supplies, and the market is tight, there is a national security issue.” Yet the U.S. government has an interest in publicly quieting talk about the threat of China both militarily and technologically, which go hand in hand in threatening U.S. competitiveness. And unlike the U.S., China does not distinguish between civilian and military development as profits for both go into supporting the Chinese Communist state.

Not too long ago there was much scrutiny and debate about whether the International Olympic Committee should award Beijing as host of the 2008 Summer Olympics due to China’s continued practice of human rights violations, including slave labor conditions for its people. The Chinese somehow have that covered too making this whole bidding process not such a long shot but a well orchestrated campaign largely with the help of U.S. government insiders and corporate entities lending a willing hand.

Earlier this year International Business Machines Corp. was sold to the Lenovo Group of China, which met with disapproval from Congress. As a direct result IBM sought out former National Security Advisor to both President Ford and President H.W. Bush, Brent Scowcroft, to help seal the deal. But in the Unocal deal, CNOOC CEO, Fu Chengyu, has engaged no less than three U.S. investment banks, four law firms, two media communications groups and some with direct connections to the White House.

...more...

a Brazilian wax job coming up, followed by - a snip-snip. When we are finally neutered like the bastard dog we've become under Bushco.

Just a fly-by post. I've been keeping up with you all later in the evenings after the markets close. Thanks for keeping us all up to date. :hi:

11:52am 06/29/05 CHEVRON, UNOCAL MERGER REGISTRATION CLEARED BY SEC

11:53am 06/29/05 CHEVRON'S S-4 STATEMENT DECLARED EFFECTIVE BY SEC

Chevron, Unocal get SEC OK for shareholder vote

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38532.5004153472-837452713&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Chevron Corp. (CVX) said Wednesday that its registration statement for the acquisition of Unocal Corp. (UCL) has been cleared by the Securities and Exchange Commission, allowing the company to send its merger agreement to Unocal stockholders for a vote to be held on Aug. 10. The SEC also declared effective Chevron's Form S-4 documents and amendments, originally filed May 26, which contain a proxy statement for the special meeting of Unocal stockholders. Unocal has set June 29 as the stockholder record date for the vote.

(edited to add link and blurb)

:hi:

I'm not around much, either, but it's good to see you name in the thread now and again!

up around here. Next week is finally door hanging week and then I'm catering an event on the 9th. Hopefully things will settle down a bit after that. But I've made that promise to you all once too often this summer. I really do hope to get back to the thread a bit more after that. :hi:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38532.4057218866-837445602&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Retail stocks opened slightly off early Wednesday, as the industry benchmark S&P Retail Index ($RLX) edged down 1 point to 443.72. Advancing issues included shares of Radio Shack Corp. (RSH) , which added 14 cents to $23.73 recently; and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) , shares of which gained 19 cents to $48.62. Stocks weighing on the sector included Staples Inc. (SPLS) , which was down 27 cents at $21.50, and Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO) , shares of which declined 24 cents to $26.25 soon after the opening bell.

But..but..but... I thought consumer spending was UP? :crazy:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B823FC4F5%2D82C8%2D4F06%2D84F6%2D9F6769D0A55C%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Retail stocks edged lower early Wednesday, as the industry's main measure was pulled fractionally lower by weakness in dollar stores and discount retailers.

The sector benchmark S&P Retail Index ($RLX: news, chart, profile) dipped 2 points, or less than 1%, to 442.62 in recent trading.

Shares weighing on the index included Dollar General Corp. (DG: news, chart, profile) , off 22 cents to $20.16 recently, and Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO: news, chart, profile) , down 28 cents to $26.21.

Meanwhile, discount retailer Kohl's Corp. (KSS: news, chart, profile) retreated 30 cents to $55.84 and Target Corp. (TGT: news, chart, profile) sank 31 cents to $55.36.

...short blurb...

Where is that consumer spending!?!?!?!? :eyes:

(anyone else feel that old "taxation without representation" thing?)

9:51am 06/29/05 SENATE FINANCE COMMITEE OKS CAFTA LEGISLATION

;)

:hi:

:hi:

Dow 10,407.86 +2.23 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,073.43 +3.54 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,202.31 +0.74 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 39.40 -0.36 (-0.91%)
NYSE Volume 168,744,000
Nasdaq Volume 245,195,000

and for some reason... the blather machine is broken

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 10,396.44 -9.19 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,069.23 -0.66 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,201.51 -0.06 (-0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 3.941 -0.35 (-0.88%)

NYSE Volume 202,952,000
Nasdaq Volume 295,730,000

waiting for new blather (can find here ;) http://www.briefing.com/Silver/InDepth/StockMarketUpdate.htm )

(adding blather on edit)

10:00 ET Major indices now trade in split fashion as sector leadership remains mixed... Technology has paced the way higher following better than expected Q4 earnings and a raised Q1 sales outlook from Oracle (ORCL 13.45 +0.62) as well as an analyst upgrade on Motorola (MOT 18.65 +0.30)... Falling bond yields have helped interest-rate sensitive areas like Utilities and Financial, with the latter getting an additional boost from AIG's (AIG 57.82 +2.65) strong Q1 report... The Materials sector, however, has been weak after Monsanto (MON 62.76 -5.08) reported an 81% decline in Q3 profits and issued disappointing FY05 guidance... Energy has extended yesterday's losses as crude prices continue to slide ahead of the weekly oil report (10:30 ET) - crude oil supplies (consensus -1.4 mln), gasoline stockpiles (consensus -190K) and distillates (consensus +1.5 mln)... Consumer Staples have been under pressure following downside FY06 guidance from General Mills (GIS 48.95 -1.66) while consolidation in retail and homebuilding have weighed on Consumer Discretionary... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1303/1206. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1215/1161.

Richard Daughty, the angriest guy in economics

email: scgcjs@gte.net

-- I am in full lock-down mode here at the Mogambo Bunker, and I gotta’ tell ya’ that I look pretty sharp in my camouflage Speedo and these bandoliers of ammo across my chest. The reason that I am so frantic is that the growth in Total Fed Credit has gone to zero for over a month now. This is, for me, the ultimate in bad news.

The lack of growth in Fed Credit is bad news because, as Peter Zihlmann of P. Zihlmann Investments explains, "The present expansion is the longest running expansion on record. It has surpassed all other economic expansions before it. The driving force behind it is the rapid growth of the money supply and the explosion of credit that has accompanied it." Many people are saying that the money supply is anemic, too, but that is not exactly true. In fact, M3 has accelerated over the last month above its trend for the last few years, although the monetary base has pretty much leveled off.

But if there really is no rapid growth in the money supply, and there is no explosion in new credit, then the longest-running expansion in history must be just that; history.

Gary Lammert, who is a practitioner of fractal analysis, writes that even when there is money and credit being pumped out, there is nothing to guarantee that they money will be spent on anything useful. "But without the growing money supply flowing into investments for the production of real and useful items that can be sold in a competitive manner to the global markets, the generated economic activity may be malinvested into cul de sacs of domestic services, speculative financial assets, and purely domestic production items such as housing construction."

So the money may be thrown down some rat hole or another, such as stocks or bonds or houses.

(more)

http://worldnewstrust.org/modules/AMS/article.php?storyid=813

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-06-29T140714Z_01_N29146696_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-IMPAC-STOCK-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) - Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc. (IMH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) shares fell as much as 10.2 percent on Wednesday after the real estate investment trust said it may need to re-evaluate its dividend policy, citing the impact of mortgage prepayments and shrinking margins.

In a statement late Tuesday afternoon, Chief Executive Joseph Tomkinson said that while Impac has increased assets to $27 billion and is benefiting from strong mortgage acquisitions and originations, "market conditions have resulted in industrywide unprecedented prepayments speeds and compression of our adjusted net interest margins."

<snip>

Fowler wrote that about 73 percent of Impac's mortgage production consists of LIBOR-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages -- which carry fixed rates for three or five years before they convert to an adjustable rate.

But he said mortgage borrowers are refinancing these into "deeply teased hybrid or fully amortizing ARMs." Fowler said Impac is suffering margin pressure because of rising short-term rates, saying the REIT hedges no more than 75 percent of its mortgage book.

...more...

Ozy - what do you make of this?

Dow 10,413.15 +7.52 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,071.30 +1.41 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,202.40 +0.83 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 3.948 -0.28 (-0.70%)

NYSE Volume 346,406,000
Nasdaq Volume 455,922,000

(adding blather on edit)

10:30 ET Dow -8, Nasdaq -2, S&P -0.31
Market fluctuating just below the flat line as investors remain a bit cautious ahead of tomorrow's FOMC decision... While it is widely expected the Fed will raise its benchmark rate for the ninth straight time tomorrow afternoon, investors will be scrutinizing the language of the policy directive to gain some insight on when the Fed may finally settle on the definition of a "neutral" fed funds rate... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1420/1367. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1129/1447.

Dow 10,419.21 +13.58 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,074.72 +4.83 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,202.82 +1.25 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 3.969 -0.07 (-0.18%)

NYSE Volume 668,166,000
Nasdaq Volume 737,056,000

11:30 ET Dow +3, Nasdaq +4, S&P +0.52
Split industry leadership continues to dictate early action, as the Nasdaq still outpaces its blue chip counterparts by a slim margin... Primarily responsible for keeping the tech-heavy Composite above water has been Oracle (ORCL 13.48 +0.65) - the Nasdaq's most actively traded issue... Before the bell, Oracle beat analysts' Q4 forecasts by $0.03, as license revenues checked above expectations - marking the best year-over-year profit and revenue gains for Oracle since 2000... However, while ORCL shares continue to outperform (+5.1%) and move closer to a 52-week high, consolidation in large-cap names like AAPL, YHOO, IAAI, SYMC and PAYX have minimized Nasdaq gains... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1735/1254. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1385/1361.
11:00 ET Dow +14, Nasdaq +5, S&P +1.60
Stocks spike higher, lifting the indices back into positive territory, as oil prices sell off in reaction to better than expected oil inventories data... At the bottom of the hour, the EIA showed that crude oil inventories - which had declined over the previous three weeks - unexpectedly rose 1.1 mln barrels (consensus -1.4 mln)... Gasoline inventories rose 301K barrels, versus an expected decline of 190K) while distillates rose 1.64 mln, slightly more than forecasts of a 1.5 mln barrel increase... In response, crude oil futures have extended early losses and now trade at $57.40/bbl (-$0.80), further soothing inflation worries alleviated earlier amid a downward revision to the Q1 GDP deflator... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1701/1214. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1333/1333.

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-06-29T160001Z_01_N28414614_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-WORLD-UN.XML

UNITED NATIONS, June 29 (Reuters) - Rising interest rates and the yawning U.S. current account deficit pose risks to global economic growth, United Nations economic forecasters warned on Wednesday.

Global economic growth is expected to slow to 3 percent in 2005 from 4.1 percent in 2004, according to the latest report on world economic prospects from the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

But central banks that are raising interest rates to head off possible inflationary pressures may throttle back growth even further, said the report, entitled "World Economic Situation and Prospects 2005."

<snip>

The new report said the U.S. current account gap, which ran at a record $195.1 billion, or 6.4 percent of gross domestic product, in the first quarter, could lead to shocks to national economies around the world if it grows to the point where investors lose their appetite for dollar-denominated debt.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar is not enough to correct the current account gap, the broadest measure of U.S. trade with the rest of the world as it includes investment flows, the report said.

...more...

If the Fed stops raising rates, the dollar will crater - outflows will escalate and it will be "game over". If the Fed raises rates, the housing bubble will pop, the US economy will crater and it will be "game over".

Oh, the conundrum that Meanspin has created :banghead:

Dow 10,407.63 +2.00 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,074.18 +4.29 (+0.21%)
S&P 500 1,202.48 +0.91 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 3.974 -0.02 (-0.05%)

NYSE Volume 826,763,000
Nasdaq Volume 871,516,000

12:30 ET Dow +8, Nasdaq +5, S&P +1.21
Stocks still mired in relatively tight trading ranges, showing little reaction to the latest spike lower in oil prices... Within the last 30 minutes, crude oil futures slipped below $57/bbl for the first time since June 16, leaving the commodity temporarily down more than 2.0% for the session... However, the market's response has been relatively muted, unlike similar consolidation yesterday that helped boost sentiment across the board, leaving the major indices with average gains of 1.0%... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1755/1322. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1441/1409.

12:00 ET Dow +14, Nasdaq +4, S&P +0.94
Market clings to modest gains midday as investors weigh bullish GDP data and falling oil prices against uncertainty ahead of tomorrow's Fed decision... Earlier the Commerce Dept. reported a second (and final) revision to Q1 real GDP, putting the final figure at 3.8%, while the accompanying GDP chain deflator - a key inflation measure- was revised lower to 2.9% (from 3.2%)... However, even though final revisions to Q1 GDP data have shown the economy grew faster than previously expected and that inflation remains tame, the near 100% certainty that the Fed will raise rates for the ninth consecutive time has kept gains at a minimum ahead of tomorrow's decision... Meanwhile, sector leadership remains mixed, as seven out of ten economic sectors trade in positive territory... Despite a recent reversal in bond yields, the Financial sector continues to provide the bulk of leadership to the upside, taking a bullish cue from AIG's (AIG 57.78 +2.61) better than expected Q1 earnings... Even the interest-rate sensitive Utilities sector has found enough buying interest to shrug of the fact that profit-taking in Treasurys now has the benchmark 10-year note down 2 ticks to yield 3.97%... Technology has also been strong, getting a large boost from Oracle (ORCL 13.51 +0.68), which beat analysts' Q4 earnings expectations and a raised Q1 sales guidance... An analyst upgrade on Motorola (MOT 18.72 +0.37) has also helped offset profit-taking in chip stocks... The Materials sector has been in focus, as strength in gold and diversified metals struggles to offset weakness in chemicals after Monsanto (MON 62.76 -5.08) reported an 81% decline in Q3 profits and issued disappointing FY05 guidance... Energy, however, remains the worst performing sector as consolidation in oil prices ($57.08/bbl -$1.12)continues following an unexpected build in oil inventories... crude oil inventories rose 1.1 mln barrels (consensus -1.4 mln), gasoline inventories rose 301K barrels (consensus -190K) and distillates rose 1.64 mln (consensus +1.5 mln)... Health Care has also traded lower, losing ground amid weakness in several leading drug and biotech stocks, while consolidation in the retail and homebuilding groups continues to weigh on the Consumer Discretionary sector... ..DJTA +1.1%. ..DJUA +0.1%. ..SOX -0.5%. ..DOT +0.2%. ..XOI -0.6%. ..Nasdaq 100 -0.1%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +0.3%. ..Russell 2000 +0.2%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1786/1255. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1483/1339.

Dow 10,400.88 -4.75 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,073.82 +3.93 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 1,202.57 +1.00 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 3.970 -0.06 (-0.15%)

NYSE Volume 922,314,000
Nasdaq Volume 956,369,000

1:00 ET Dow -6, Nasdaq +4, S&P +1.14

Blue chips pull back slightly but market internals still suggest a mixed bias... Advancers on the NYSE hold a 17 to 13 advantage over decliners while declining issues on the Nasdaq remain evenly matched... The ratio of up to down volume, however, reflects a more positive tone to trading at both the Big Board and the Composite... Meanwhile, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq continue to trade above initial support levels but the lack of conviction on the part of buyers continues to question whether or not resistance levels of 10430, 1203 and 2076, respectively, can be breached... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1761/1330. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1453/1420.

Good thing I hit the reload button.

But then... wait... some minutes have passed (1:17) and the love has drained somewhat out of the Dow. And bonds are taking a hit.

Dow 10,391.29 -14.34 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,072.49 +2.60 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 1,202.03 +0.46 (+0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 39.80 +0.04 (+0.10%)
NYSE Volume 944,942,000
Nasdaq Volume 974,930,000

check out my post

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1590842&mesg_id=1591823

Don't we have to have something like 39 from the indirect bidders to break even on those treasuries?

Ruh-Roh :scared:

The Dutch are net sellers now - where is this going to lead?

They need a minimum acceptable bid in order to make any profit from the sale of bonds. This could be very scary indeed if a holder is undercutting the bonds presented at the fed's auction. At least, that's what my frail memory on these things tells me is happening here: U.S. debt looks to become a liability.

Any notes, anyone?

that was my feeling and thought on the matter, especially after the UN warning this a.m.

:hi:

Please see my post in latest breaking news.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1591636

If you know anyone who has a defined benefit pension plan, THEY NEED TO CALL THEIR CONGRESSIONAL REPS NOW!

Dow 10,381.70 -23.93 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,069.47 -0.42 (-0.02%)
S&P 500 1,200.66 -0.91 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 3.994 +0.18 (+0.45%)

NYSE Volume 1,032,336,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,059,956,000

13:30 ET Dow -10, Nasdaq +3, S&P +0.75

More of the same for stocks as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Bonds, meanwhile, have extended their losses following recent auction results, as the benchmark 10-year note is now off 6 ticks to yield 3.99%... At the top of the hour, the Treasury Dept. held a $20 bln 2-year note auction, which awarded investors a yield of 3.650%, but disappointing indirect bidder participation (foreign central banks) of 28.4% - well below a 12-auction average of 41.0% - has merely added to already sluggish trade in Treasurys... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1797/1339. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1457/1455.

Gotta run for the afternoon - will check back later -

Have a Great Day Marketeers (and lurkers)!

:hi:

Have a great afternoon!

Ozy :hi:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38532.575956412-837464297&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A split Securities and Exchange Commission, facing the threat of a lawsuit from a business group, approved for the second time in a year a controversial rule about mutual fund governance Wednesday. In a 3-2 vote, commissioners passed measures compelling funds' boards of directors to have independent chairmen, and for 75% of board directors to have no ties to management. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has threatened to sue the SEC for a second time over the rule.

Really the last post - gotta go now!

Oil prices fall almost $1 a barrel, trade near $57 as U.S. crude supply grows

WASHINGTON, Jun 29, 2005 (The Canadian Press via COMTEX) -- Oil prices fell by almost $1 a barrel Wednesday after the U.S. government released data that showed domestic supplies of oil, gasoline and distillate fuel rose last week.

-cut-

In its weekly petroleum supply report, the U.S. Energy Department said inventories of crude oil increased by 1.1 million barrels to 328.5 million barrels, or 8 per cent above year ago levels.

Refinery utilization also increased to 96.3 per cent of capacity, up from 94.8 per cent the week before, and that appeared to give a lift to the fuel supply. Gasoline inventories grew by 300,000 barrels to 216.2 million barrels, or 4 per cent above year ago levels. The nation's supply of distillate fuel, which includes diesel, jet fuel and heating oil, swelled by 1.7 million barrels to 113.2 million barrels, or less than 1 per cent above year ago levels.

Analysts said that while the rising supply of oil, gasoline and distillate contributed to the downward momentum of prices, the market's daily moves are not always closely linked with supply-demand fundamentals.

more...

http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/2/7/67901372.html

The emphasis on the short-term (today and tomorrow) rather than the forseeable future, maybe a year or two or three, never ceases to astound me.

Dow 10,369.57 -36.06 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 2,067.33 -2.56 (-0.12%)
S&P 500 1,199.67 -1.90 (-0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 39.94 +0.18 (+0.45%)
NYSE Volume 1,078,452,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,108,656,000

3:30PM: Indices continue to languish near session lows as investors find little incentive to own stocks amid all of the uncertainty tied to what the Fed may or may not highlight in its influential policy directive... Meanwhile, well before the FOMC policy announcement comes out at 2:15 ET tomorrow, investors will have other notable economic data to digest...
At 8:30 ET, May Personal Income (consensus +0.3%) and Spending (consensus +0.1%) will be released while investors will also get the latest (and most influential) read on regional manufacturing activity, when June Chicago PMI (consensus 54.0) hits the wires at 10:00 ET... NYSE Adv/Dec 1713/1520, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1385/1587

3:00PM: Equities are still on the defensive as modest selling interest continues to weigh on the proceedings... While the market continues to sit tight, perhaps until Fed comments tomorrow provide a more definitive tone to trading, hesitation following huge gains yesterday that left the major indices with their biggest advance since May 18 may also be keeping buyers on the sidelines heading into the final hour of trading...NYSE Adv/Dec 1722/1496, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1443/1525

Dow 10,374.48 -31.15 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,068.89 -1.00 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 1,199.85 -1.72 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 39.90 +0.14 (+0.35%)
NYSE Volume 1,679,645,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,641,217,000

Close: Stocks closed modestly lower as nervousness ahead of tomorrow's Fed policy statement overshadowed encouraging GDP data, falling oil prices and a strong report from Oracle... Initially, decent follow-through buying interest, fueled in part by bullish revisions to Q1 GDP data, opened equities to the upside... However, buyers eventually preferred to sit on the sidelines, waiting to see if another widely expected 25-basis point rate hike (to 3.25%) would be accompanied by a policy directive suggesting further Fed tightening...

The fact that the major averages 24 hours earlier recorded their largest advance since May 18 also sparked some widespread consolidation, as seven out of ten economic sectors closed lower... Before the bell, the Commerce Dept. showed that the U.S. economy grew at faster than expected 3.8% annual rate in Q1, exceeding 3.0% for the eighth consecutive quarter - the longest such stretch in nearly two decades...

The report, which confirmed that rising oil prices did little to hinder growth, also showed that inflation was not as bad as originally reported, as the chain deflator - a key gauge of inflation - was revised downward to 2.9% (from 3.2%) and the price index for personal consumption rose just 1.9% versus a prior estimate of 2.1%... But since the data can be easily predicted and are representative of old (Q1) figures, its ability to identify underlying growth trends heading into the end of Q2 was still no match for uncertainty related to upcoming comments from the Fed... Meanwhile, Consumer Discretionary, however, paced the way lower as investors locked in profits after strong performances yesterday from the likes of HD, TGT, LOW and SBUX, as well as many other retailers and several homebuilders...

According to Bush's Dept. of Commercials (mistakenly referred to the Dept. of Commerce) aggregate consumer income has not kept pace with inflation since January of 2005. Though nominal Aggregate wage & salary income has increased 1.5%, inflation has increased 1.94%. Thus, inflation-adjusted income has actually decreased 0.34% since the end of January 2005. This translates to a similar decrease in consumer spending power. Can GDP really increase if consumers have less spending power? Does inventory growth really represent economic "growth." Does industry make money off goods sitting in warehouses?