Troubles may lurk for OPEC

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2150495

Troubles may lurk for OPEC
Supply cut means market share loss
By BRUCE STANLEY
Associated Press
LONDON -- OPEC's decision to slash oil output starting in November will keep crude prices high this autumn, but burgeoning exports from Iraq and Russia could force the group to cut deeper when demand ebbs next spring, the International Energy Agency said Friday.

The group's report coincided with a run-up in energy prices in the United States, where concerns about cold weather and tight supplies have pushed crude, heating oil and natural gas futures higher in recent days.

The desire of some OPEC members to increase their production quotas will add to pressure on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in the second quarter of 2004, when oil consumption hits a seasonal low.

Firm crude prices will encourage Russia and other independent producers to pump more oil to maximize their revenues. To avoid a supply glut, OPEC will have to pump less, giving up some of its market share for the fifth consecutive year, the International Energy Agency said
more...

Russia seems the wildcard :bounce:
I think Bush is trying to Destroy OPEC

Russia is certainly increasing their exports to Europe and is about to switch to pricing their oil in Euros which will kill our economy. Iraq isn't going to have any oil to sell for a long, long time.

And it looks like the deep pockets that orchestrated this event
are not happy either.
Well earned!!!

If ya play with fire you'll get your fingers burned!!!!

for Russia's agreement to go with the Euro. Wow...things might change in a very big way for the US......very soon.

...Under Saddam Hussein, Iraqi oil was traded in euros. "This was another reason ," Ibrahim said. "There is a great political dimension to this. Slowly more power and muscle is moving from the United States to the EU, and that's mainly because of what happened in Iraq," he said.

Putin had previously brought up the proposal to switch to euros as prime minister in October 1999, at a meeting of EU leaders in Helsinki. Then, in an attempt to forge a new bloc to counterbalance the United States, he made the proposal alongside calling for closer cooperation between Russia and the EU, including on security issues.

Since then, however, Russia's ties with the United States have warmed considerably -- and it is unclear whether Putin would risk damaging that relationship by going ahead with the euro move, analysts said.

"Putin is very much interested in changing the structure of OPEC and he cannot do that without the United States," said Alexander Rahr, an expert on Russia at the German Council on Foreign Relations. "He can only get a foothold for Russia in the Middle East with . And, he wants to get contracts for the Russian oil industry in Iraq -- for this, too, he needs the United States."

Some analysts said that the statement appeared to be aimed at boosting Russia's global clout on the world stage. "Putin is trying to create a position for Russia as an independent player. But his aim is not to undermine relations . He just wants to boost Russia's position up from being a junior partner," said Dmitry Trenin, geopolitical analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Yevgeny Gavrilenkov, chief economist at Troika Dialog and an earlier architect of the Putin government's first economic plan, said debate is growing on a move to the euro as Russia mulls siding with the EU. "Such an idea is really possible," he said. "Why not? More than half of Russia's oil trade is with Europe. But there will be great opposition to this from the United States."


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/10/10/001.html

are aligning themselves to put a halt to this rogue government that has taken over our country. As they say, payback is a mother.

I am willing to bet that half Iraq's problem is that it went to the euro with it's oil

from the BP site:
http://www.bp.com/centres/energy/oil/production.asp
(click Table of world oil production, a pdf file)

For production per day 2002 it says:

OPEC, 28.2 million barrels, -2m compared to previous year
Former Soviet Union, 9.5 million barrels, +1m
(roughly)

Russia approx 1/3 of Opec production, Opec recently cut production by 900,000 barrels per day, so Russia cuts production by 300,000 barrels.

(maybe)

Whilst the move to the Euro was excellent, it's significance has been slightly overlooked in the mainstream media. A nice cut would reinforce the political message.

The story would be "Today Russia cut production in accordance with OPEC guidelines and last month they moved to payment in Euros."

is mentioned in the news item, the media will then have to explain what it means to the general public.

It's like a rock band that comes out with a brillient debut album, but it slightly gets missed, when they come out with their second brillient album then the first album takes off also.

. . . China to Fund $800M Kazakh Pipeline

Reuters ALMATY, Kazakshtan -- The Kazakh state oil firm said Thursday its Chinese counterpart had agreed to finance an $800 million oil pipeline from western Kazakhstan to northwestern China and construction works would start in mid-2004.

The pipeline may become the first major oil supply link running from an ex-Soviet state to the giant, fast-growing energy consumer. Russian oil major Yukos has agreed with China to supply it with oil from Siberia, but Russia's government has not yet approved the proposed route.

The new pipeline is also seen as a major boon for landlocked Kazakhstan, which hopes to triple crude output to more than 3 million barrels per day . . .

<snip>



AND

don't furget the EURO thing:

Different Article at



"Time is GMT + 8 hours
Posted: 09 September 2003 1329 hrs

China to start selling dollar, euro bonds in October: source


China is expected to start marketing its long-awaited global bond, its first international issue since May 2001, from around mid-to-late October, banking sources said.

The new issue is widely expected to consist of a 10-year US$1 billion dollar-denominated tranche and another five- or seven-year 500 million euro one.

<snip>


"The Chinese government is expected to market the dollar tranche of the bond in the US, Europe, and Asia, the sources said.

China last sold a global bond in May 2001, raising US$1 billion through a 10-year tranche and 550 million euro through a five-year offering.

With China's huge foreign reserves of around US$349.5 billion, it probably isn't seeking to raise funds but is tapping the international debt market to set a new, more liquid benchmark

<snip>

Now THIS should put a new wrinkle in the WH collective Butts ???

. . . .

obviously Russia & China being business partners makes Sense.

I noticed Exxon wants to buy Yukos so it can control the OIL.

It will be interesting to see if Putin takes the Exxon Money and then lives like a King or does he want more!


:bounce:

They avoid admitting it but each has stated his support in the past.