Grenada Orders Public off Streets; Emily Upgraded to a Hurricane

<snip>

St. GEORGE'S, Grenada (AP) - Grenadian police ordered people off the streets and businesses closed Wednesday as Emily, which strengthened into a hurricane late Wednesday, threatened an island still recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Ivan last year.
Prime Minister Keith Mitchell sought to reassure citizens the government would not be caught off-guard - as it was when Ivan killed 39 people and left a wasteland of ruined buildings in September.

Grenadians rushed home under heavy rain, forming traffic jams in the capital of St. George's. Islanders had flocked to the stores Tuesday, snapping up canned food, water and batteries. The rush contrasted with the attitude before Ivan, when islanders took few precautions.

At least 100 people evacuated to a shelter at a high school in the southeastern part of Grenada, said Angela Pierre, the shelter's manager. Thirty-five other shelters across the country also reported taking people in. The government declared a state of emergency as a precaution.

<snip>

Link: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGBJFUPF4BE.html

000
WTNT35 KNHC 140258
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005

...EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT...THE
GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD FROM CUMANA TO PUNTO FIJO ON THE
PARAGUANA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.9 N... 61.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.

Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/140258.shtml

Looks like Florida may get a break on this one.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0505W5_sm2+gif/040438W_sm.gif

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MAKING EMILY A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS. THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 140312
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

EMILY HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE THIS EVENING. THE
FIRST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 2331Z INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS
BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND MEASURED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB. 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED
FROM 50 TO 65 KT...WITH THE STRONGER ESTIMATES BASED ON A LOW LEVEL
CENTER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. LATER RECON FIXES
SHOWED THAT THE CENTER HAD REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE
CONVECTION...AND THE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA SOON RESPONDED. THE
PRESSURE HAS MOST RECENTLY FALLEN TO 992 MB...AND THE MAXIMUM 850
MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND HAS BEEN 79 KT...SUPPORTING AT LEAST 63 KT AT
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...REDUCTION TO THE SURFACE OF A DROPSONDE
PROFILE JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 01Z SUPPORTS SURFACE WINDS OF
80 KT...WHICH IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MAKING EMILY A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS. THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

DUE TO THE SCATTER IN THE RECON FIXES DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 275/16.
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW
POSITION...THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE NWS MODELS...GFS AND GFDL...HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE NAVY MODELS...GFDN AND
NOGAPS...HAVE SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TAKES EMILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 11.9N 61.1W 80 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 12.5N 63.5W 85 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 13.4N 66.7W 90 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 70.0W 95 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 15.5N 73.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 17.5N 79.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 21.0N 90.5W 90 KT


$$

See also previous monitoring thread here...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1617114

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0505I_sm2+gif/040438P_sm.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0505S_sm2+gif/040438P_sm.gif

Or do you think my nerves are working over time?

Strong hurricanes early in the season (i.e. bad season coming) now, but this is going to keep getting worse for another century or more, assuming we reduce industrial greenhouse emissions to zero today.

Also notable is the 2-5C ocean temperature increase and the massive increase in birds dying of starvation.

...being affected around the world and lots are dying.

The birds were emaciated as opposed to showing overt signs of illness. This is, of course, inconclusive but the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of their maritime prey being inaccessible because they went deeper in search of waters of the right temperature. The birds weren't the only sign, though. Plankton and krill were likewise affected.

This can be very bad.

They should name the storm Reagan, that way the people will get the fuck out.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 142050
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

LOW-LEVEL DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS AT 1525 AND 1712Z YIELDED
SURFACE-ADJUSTED WINDS OF 92 AND 93 KT. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS...BUT SINCE THAT TIME...THE
EYE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE DISTINCT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DVORAK T
NUMBERS HAVE INCREASE BY 0.5 TO 1 T-NUMBER. ON THIS BASIS...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100 KT...MAKING EMILY THE SECOND
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE
FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS
RIDGE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12Z UKMET
IS NOW CLOSER TO THE REST OF TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH SOME VARIATION IN
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT AVERAGE 5-DAY TRACK ERRORS
EXCEED 300 NMI.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE NOT BE ANY APPRECIABLE
INCREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
CURRENTLY UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT
COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT IF THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS QUICKLY AS
FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BELOW
EMILY WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE HURRICANE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. INTERNAL PROCESSES...SUCH
AS HARD TO FORECAST EYEWALL CYCLES...COULD HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE
ON INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS...BUT NO ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO
ANTICIPATE THESE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 13.3N 65.9W 100 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 14.1N 68.5W 105 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.3N 72.1W 115 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.5N 75.7W 115 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 17.6N 79.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 19.5N 85.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 90.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 23.0N 95.0W 90 KT


$$

Or is it going to turn into Florida? Or is it going to hit SE Texas/Louisiana?

Sorry, living in DFW I've never really learned much about the tracking of hurricanes, but I have a ton of family in SE Texas.

The border of TX/LA hasn't been hit in forever. I know that it would ruin my grandfather's house if a strong one hit. But my grandpa has the right attitude, "If they hint about one hitting, I'm outta here, and second that's why I have insurance."

is for a high-pressure area sitting over Florida and the Atlantic to grow into LA and East TX.

And New Orleans hasn't been hit in a long time.

and so did parts of Tobago. Jamaica is now on hurricane watch with Emily now a Cat.3 -115mph. Hopefully she'll stay south but if there's much more movement north, we are in serious trouble. Northerly movement will also have implications for coastal parts of Belize and Texas down the line. We prepare, wait and watch.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_model.html

Details here...
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0507/S00226.htm

Thanks to all of you for keeping us landlubbers informed.

:yourock: You guys are the best! :yourock:

Now Verging on Cat 4.... Official Track Moves To North...

About six hours off Category Four..... Cancun and Jamaica to be hammered...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0505I_sm2+gif/153620P_sm.gif

000
WTNT45 KNHC 150300
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

EMILY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 6.0
FROM ALL AGENCIES...CORRESPONDING TO AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115
KT. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE AND WINDS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE FIRST FIX AT 2347Z INCLUDED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 962 MB...DOWN 12 MB FROM ABOUT SIX HOURS EARLIER...AND
A MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 100 KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 958 MB AT 0130Z WITH MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS UP TO 125 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...
SUPPORTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 110 KT. NOT MUCH SEEMS TO BE
IN THE WAY OF EMILY MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...POSSIBLY
REACHING CATEGORY FOUR...DURING ITS PATH THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE GFDL MAINTAINS A NEAR-120 KT HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...AND WHILE THE GFDL CURIOUSLY WEAKENS EMILY IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A MAJOR HURRICANE BEYOND
72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE TOOK A SLIGHT JOG TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 285/17 SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS ON CONTINUING THIS GENERAL
MOTION. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY BEYOND THAT TIME...THE OVERALL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BY AN INCREASING AMOUNT BEYOND 48 HOURS...BUT REMAINS ON
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.6N 67.5W 110 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.4N 70.1W 115 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 15.7N 73.6W 115 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 77.1W 115 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 18.2N 80.2W 115 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.5N 86.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 24.5N 95.5W 100 KT


$$

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0505W5_sm2+gif/031924W_sm.gif

CNN Report
http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/07/15/tropical.weather/

See Post no. 2 for computer model graphic
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1626432&mesg_id=1626440

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a3Tvyjm5g5m8&refer=home

N.Y. Oil Plunges as Hurricane Emily Forecast to Miss Gulf Rigs
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil in New York fell the most in more than two weeks as Hurricane Emily was forecast to miss Gulf of Mexico platforms and production from the region recovered from the shutdowns Hurricane Dennis caused last week.

Emily, the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, will probably come ashore on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, forecasters said. Production in the Gulf rose to 3.6 percent below normal, the Minerals Management Service said. Speculation that Emily might shut platforms prompted some traders to take long positions, or bets prices would rise.