Santorum criticizes Weather Service

Has sponsored bill to prevent government weather notices, to benefit private companies, including donor

Saturday, September 10, 2005

By Maeve Reston, Post-Gazette National Bureau

WASHINGTON -- Sen. Rick Santorum, who has sponsored legislation to limit the information that the National Weather Service can provide to the public, told radio reporters this week that Congress should investigate whether the federal agency's initial warnings on the severity of Hurricane Katrina were adequate.

The Pennsylvania Republican's remarks drew fire from a union representing employees of the National Weather Service, which is a subsidiary of the U.S. Commerce Department's National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration. They also were closely scrutinized by Democrats, who have contended that his legislation is intended to benefit private weather companies, at least one of which has contributed to his campaign.

During a conference call that Santorum conducted with Pennsylvania radio reporters Thursday, a public radio correspondent asked him about the weather service's performance in preparing Gulf Coast residents for Hurricane Katrina and whether the rescue and recovery response could have been improved if his legislation had been law.

Santorum said he didn't think the weather service had given "sufficient warning" initially about the hurricane's path or what its impact would be when it hit Florida. He said he was "not going to suggest there were any major errors," but that the adequacy of the warnings should to be investigated along with other aspects of how government agencies have dealt with Katrina.

Continued at link below...

Link: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05253/569133.stm

A tool... a servant...

When I worked there, most of the upper mangement were into Werner Erhard's EST.

edit to add info link:
http://skepdic.com/est.html

Its description is "Satirical attempt to name the frothy mix of lube and fecal matter that is sometimes the byproduct of anal sex after Senator Rick Santorum."

:rofl:

Dr. Joel N. Myers
Founder, CEO and President of AccuWeather, Inc.
myersj@accuwx.com

Lisa Behe
Product Marketing Manager
behe@accuweather.com

Michael Sylvie
Marketing Communications Manager
sylvie@accuweather.com

I suppose it's most likely a coincidence come of living in a large diverse country,but I couldn't help but wonder if the product marketing manager is any relation to Michael J. Behe the shill for Intelligent(?) Design pushers?

any weather information on the Internet that could be provided by private companies' paid subscription services. Strangely enough -- :sarcasm: one of Scrotorum's big campaign contributors is one of these companies.

"The bottom line is that we did our job well and everyone knows it. By falsely claiming that we got it wrong, Rick Santorum is continuing his misguided crusade against the National Weather Service. It’s unfortunate that Senator Santorum would try to use this tragedy to push his own agenda. Senator Santorum's comments are aimed at jumpstarting his bizarre stalled legislation to undermine the mission of the National Weather Service, legislation that has failed to garner the support of even one of his colleagues in the U.S. Senate.� said Paul Greaves, President of NWSEO.
The early warnings about Hurricane Katrina issued by the National Weather Service have been praised for their accuracy by news organizations such as NBC News, The New York Times and even internationally by The London Times.

"The fact is that we issued several warnings about the oncoming storm. Sadly, many of those warnings fell on deaf ears.

"We urge Senator Santorum to retract his remarks about the National Weather Service. Senator Santorum would be providing a better service to the nation if he focused his efforts on helping the victims of this hurricane, instead of lashing out against the hardworking men and women of the National Weather Service who prove their worth each day." said Mr. Greaves.

...the poor don't deserve to know what's going on around them. Typical rethuggery.

Ricky's nothing if not persistent. He's like a mean little poodle. (No offense to any poodle lovers -- it's just a song that I know called "Mean Little Poodle".)

Forget the seeking of truth, this is driven solely and totally by greed. He has tried before to screw with free weather reports, in order to allow his company to profit.

what a complete and total scumbag, hypcritical, and profit whore this shyteheel is. But I am being kind.

He's been working to privatize the national weather service. What an appalling piece of excrement he is. I'm a Democratic committeewoman in Philly, and I assure I'll be working really really hard to get rid of him!

I thought that he was sending out feelers to see if the brain-dead right and ultra-conservative christians would follow his lead.

I hope he is selected as the GOP candidate. It would be the best thing that happened to our country.

in 2008. My guess, though, is that he said it to help him in his senate race so that conservatives wouldn't fear that he'd win the Senate seat and then immediately start running for president. I still wouldn't put it past him, though. He'd find some way to justify it -- the right always gets away with lying, it seems.

I used to work for AccuWeather in Pennsylvania, and I believe this is the truth.

AccuWeather provides weather data to Newspaper services, hotels, and TV stations across the nation.

They take the raw data and 'present' it overlaid on maps.

They are very competitive, and want to limit their competition, because AccuWeather receives the raw data, like anyone can, for free from NOAA.

They couldn't have BEEN more CLEAR or ACCURATE! They predicted the landfall within INCHES! JEEBUS. This guy is absofucking lutely out of his mind.

I don't use the 'evil' word lightly. However, I really think that he is. He's extremely religious and not at all spiritual. He's a kindred spirit with those that committed the atrocities in the name of God during the Crusades. He would absolutely love a Crusade today.

greedy manipulations of these insane bastards. How big a margin did this guy win his Senate seat by?

ducks before a storm and not receive any warnings at all? Are they dissatisfied with the number of dead not being high enough or what? I mean I know they want to lower the unemployment rate and piss on the poor as much as possible, but that sounds ridiculous. :tinfoilhat:

This idiot is YOUR representative! He is speaking on YOUR behalf in Washington...

Is he saying what YOU would say??

eom

Do they have a voter verified paper ballot?

punched cards. Fine with me! (I'm always really certain to make sure that there aren't any hanging chads though! ;))

with the "Help America Vote Act". Make sure whatever they replace them with have a voter verified paper ballot as the ballot of record available for any recount!
(RECEIPTS are not the same thing)

and voter verified paper ballots. I don't think that most voters do, however. As a computer programmer, I know how easy it is for the right to steal our votes.

I'm a Pennsylvania citizen, and I keep wondering when he will finally say something that will get "regular" people up in arms. Here in the suburbs, it's difficult to tell exactly how much support he still has. In at least one poll, he's rated the senator with the lowest approval level of his constituents:

http://www.surveyusa.com/100USSenators0805SortedbyNetApprovalScore.htm

I hope that we see this in next year's election.

The last 6 senators with the worst ratings are ALL Republicans. Of the lowest rated senators of the last 25, 17 are Republicans. I hope that portends a good outcome in the next election.

a national bureau of Weather MODIFICATION and CONTROL. Google up S 517 and put on your :tinfoilhat:

Remember New Orleans.

to know that Tricky Ricky blows." ???





http://santorumcybergate.blogspot.com

While preachers preach of evil fates
Teachers teach that knowledge waits
Can lead to hundred-dollar plates
Goodness hides behind its gates
But even the president of the United States
Sometimes must have
To stand naked.

http://bobdylan.com/songs/itsalright.html

That has taken over my country? Is he fucking nuts? The Weather Service is the only agency that did anything right. Sweet Jebus Gawd Almighty, where do these people come up with this shit???

WWUS74 KLIX 282139
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-290300-
ASSUMPTION-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-
TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT...

HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL MARSHES AND WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 26 TO 28 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL
ONSET AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND BY 3 AM CLOSER TO THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO AREA AND PERSIST FOR 9 TO 15 HOURS. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS
AROUND 175 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNED AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTDOORS ONCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONSET!

$$

LAZ034>037-039-046>049-MSZ068>071-077-290300-
AMITE-ASCENSION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-IBERVILLE-
PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST. HELENA-WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-
WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT...

HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL MARSHES AND WILL
SREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREATER BATON ROUGE AREA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONSET AROUND 9 PM TONIGHT AND PERSIST
FOR 22 TO 26 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ONSET AROUND
DAYBREAK AND PERSIST FOR ABOUT 5 TO 10 HOURS. MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS OF 80 TO 90 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTDOORS ONCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONSET.

night and was absolutely floored! And from the National Weather Service. I would like to see the 'reporting' from Accuweather? Anybody know what their reporting was??? HUH????

Thanks for posting that..we need to email it to Sanctimorium's office!

that this warning floored me. I don't know how anyone could not have been shocked by it.

...this one floored me when I saw it. I said, "oh sh!t," then read it to my husband. He thought I was kidding until I showed him the web page.

I have ForecastFox on my PC (http://forecastfox.mozdev.org). They use AccuWeather. They had essentially the same track . . . because they were using exactly the same data. All they do is C&P the NWS/NOAA anyway.

The crappiest newscast here in Birmingham (WIAT-42, that is. It should be noted that they're not politically crappy or really political at all, just bad teasers, stories stolen from News of the Weird, and awful presentation.) uses AccuWeather, also. They're generally useless during any storm.

AccuWeather sucks. Why am I not surprised that their execs are involved in one of those "personal improvement" cults. EST, Synanon, Co$... all pretty much the same and all pretty fascistic. And usually not keen on psycho Christianity of Santorum's sort. Unless it's a means to political power and respectability anyway.

go write another family values book you fucking dick head Rick

This man is a complete ass and should be targeted with everything, he needs to be voted out and his political career ended.

I'm tired of being embarrassed by this man, and I'm disgusted by the damage that he's doing to our country and to our citizens.

I hope a good candidate for the dems comes around, any ideas who it might be?

He's anti-choice, though, in reference to abortion rights, so this is going to be really hard for me. I have to just suck it up because I really don't think that anyone else can beat Santorum. (Casey is the current Pennsylvania State Treasurer who is the son of former Pennsylvania governor Bob Casey, who really made it diffcult for Pennsylvania women to exercise their right to reproductive freedom.)

In most other ways, I think that Casey is someone who really cares about people. Santorum is all words unless it will help him in some way during his re-election efforts.

be "permitted" to be the candidate, since liberals supposedly get less votes--though that's just spewed over and over in the grand plot to yoke the parties to one single (corporate) master

I'm just afraid that the Democratic "Powers That Be" would be afraid that Santorum might be beaten in the primaries, and another conservative would be the Republican candidate rather than Ricky. That person wouldn't have the baggage that Santorum has.

I don't know how Pennsylvania got to be so conservative. It is so disappointing.

elect such an idiot?

We have many conservatives in the suburbs and small towns.

I work with extremely intelligent people, and 85-90% of them are staunch B* supporters. I just can't understand this.

The NWS is the only govt agency that got it right about Katrina.

(At least the only FEDERAL government agency. I truly believe that the local and state governments did the best they could with what they had without having 20/20 hindsight to help them. I'm not just saying this for political purposes.)

accomplish. They manage to screw everything up so bad that everyone thinks the government is useless. They get voted out of office for screwing up. Democrats start to put things right, economy improves, government slims down. Then, the next election, the repugs run on the platform that big government is bad and that private enterprise can do better. They win. Big government gets bigger, budget gets out of control, rich corporations get richer, things get royally screwed again. Repeat cycle. Even sadder is that people keep falling for it.

It's enough to make one wonder if it is not just a long term plan to line corporate pockets and thus their own.

That's the only way to silence this POS!

in this shameful debacle. It was the Federal departments in charge of emergency response that IGNORED THEM that were the cause of the trouble.

Can you still have people committed to insane asylums against their will? Because this guy has completely gone out of anything resembling a stable orbit. It's just a shame what dirty corporate money will do to a person.

Unbelievable. Sickening. How corrupt do you have to be to do/say something that is going to guarantee that you are reviled by more people than you already are?

Their reports were dead-on accurate - I watched the Weather Channel continuously even before the storm hit FL (something told me this would be a big one). When it regrouped in the Gulf, they had the path heading straight for NO, even though the storm appeared to be heading more for Mexico. Then it took a right turn, just as they predicted.

This is . . . is . . . appalling just isn't enough. I'm actually spluttering here!!!!

Service?

NOAA is on a lot. They also link directly to NWS alerts, with crawls on the bottom of the screen for your local area.

I don't know how they could have done it any better. I agree with you -- I'm flabbergasted at what Santorum has the audacity to say on a lot of subjects.

Although companies like the Weather Channel have their own meteorologists and make and present their own forecasts, they do not have the infrastructure of measurement stations and reporting, weather balloons, pilot weather reports, etc., that the NWS has and uses for forecasts. Why should they pay for all of that when the Federal government already does it?

What Santorum wants is for us all to have to PAY for weather information. Because he's afraid that Accuweather and the Weather Channel can't compete with the free weather information you can get from the NWS. Basically what he wants us to do is continue to pay the government for the weather infrastructure and ALSO pay these other companies for weather reports. He can go jump in the lake.

"Santorum criticizes Weather Service"

Is it just me that finds it hard to take Santorum seriously anymore?

:wtf:

He repeated the big lie, over and over again, and after a while, he had a majority of germans believing him. Santorum is playing the same cards. The truth is immaterial. Gaining attention, grabbing a core group of supporters and repeating his lies - that is his plan.

And remember, in 1933, Hitler was a laughing stock, too.

they tried to defund the "hurricane hunter" aircraft. I can't find a link with a quick search, but I do remember the outrage from just about everyone who is not a neocon.

I'm sending NOAA a short lovenote, and you can too:

nhc.public.affairs@noaa.gov <nhc.public.affairs@noaa.gov>

We're happy to have you here! :)

appreciate the welcome - a friend turned me on to this site in the middle of the Katrina agony last week...I literally cannot stop reading it...you are all so smart and funny, but you are sort of wrecking my life because I have "things" to do and I...can't...do anything but read all these posts...thanks again!...

I fell upon DU on the Internet while searching for something that had me fuming. (It was when a right-wing radio jock discussed on the air killing Michael Moore.) I had heard the rumor and was looking for more information so that I could decide whether I wanted to contact the radio jock's advertisers. When I fell upon DU, I felt as though I had struck gold. I had found my home! 3-1/2 months later, I'm still addicted, read fewer books than I did before, but NOBODY'S going to beat me when they start pushing the right-wing lies that in the past I couldn't refute. I love it here!

Hurricane Rick
-brought to you by AccuWeather^®

Bring IT on.

but they actually mean it.

Rick has no clue. Here are his comments: http://www.witf.org/temps/FM/news1.shtml

He basically said FL did not get enough warning. The Hurricane Center got Katrina's path over south FL correct but not its intensity. This is normal. Forecasters are pretty good at predicting the paths of these storms but not their intensity. If you know anything about math and meteorology you know that the governing atmospheric equations are highly nonlinear, meaning small perturbations in initial atmospheric conditions can result in very different conditions down wind (wings of a butterfly argument). If you run an atmospheric model several times from the same set of initial conditions you'll never get the same final answer. Why? Because there is some some error in the final digit in any computer. Even with double precision (accuracy out to 16 digits) that error is enough to change the final result. So no matter how hard you concentrate on atmospheric prediction you will never get it right because errors in measurements are enough to change the final solution.

Two more points: Accuweather predicted Ophelia would cross FL and pass into the Gulf early last week. The Hurricane center kept the storm stationary with a slight drift to the north. So who did better Ricky?

Second point: Santorum's bill basically says the NWS cannot produce any products that aren't related to storm warnings if there is a comparable product produced by private industry. So if the weather is tranquil, no forecast from NWS. Also no crop forecasts or seasonal forecasts. It's all right here (very short read):

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c109:s786:

head explode:

c) ISSUANCE OF DATA, FORECASTS, AND WARNINGS-


(2) MODE OF ISSUANCE- Data, information, guidance, forecasts, and warnings shall be issued under paragraph (1) through a set of data portals designed for volume access *by commercial providers of products or services* and by such other mechanisms as the Secretary of Commerce considers appropriate for purposes of that paragraph.

And the bill goes on to say that the NWS cannot make long term predictions. So no outlook on the summer - wet dry? That might influence corn futures, so no federal info on that.

Disgusting.

.....He said he was "not going to suggest there were any major errors," but that the adequacy of the warnings should to be investigated along with other aspects of how government agencies have dealt with Katrina.

You mean the nonstop coverage for 3 days prior to when the storm hit?

I can't wait till Casey waxes him.

I read the National Weather Service warning for hurricane Katrina, it was posted here on DU... and let me tell you it was Apocalyptic! They could have saved space by saying LEAVE NOLA OR DIE! but thats not how things are done. NWS announced with vivid clarity the kind of destruction the storm would bring and as for the tracking... I knew that the hurricane was heading for NOLA based on the tracking models offered just after the storm left us here in South Florida. I hate how these f'ing repubs will say "lets not point fingers" out of one side of thier mouths and then spew blame out of the other side.

...because the fingers always seem to end up pointing their way. Jerks.

They try to take the steam out of the opposition by saying "Now is not the time for playing politics..." and then they turn around and attack and blame someone as part of their spin. And some spineless Dems are always too happy to play their game... And just so these Repubs know - its not about "blame" its about "accountability"... A person has no power to fix a problem without taking responsibility for it. As soon as someone utters the words, "Not my fault..." they may as well say, "Fuck that, its not my problem." Not one person in this administration has ever been accountable or responsible for any damn thing!

to blame his boss, the Chimp. After all it was they who bragged the adults were back in the White House. Personally I think a toddler could have handled things better than they did. Now they want to blame the weather service for not doing their menial work so they can just ignore the country and keep on having fundraisers and playing golf.

This cynical move should convince some people.

Santorum is clearly exposed as a liar.

Let's hope this attempt to capitalize from human misery turns off some of his voters.

Privatization of the weather service would endanger all of us.

Oh, let's say Disney buys Accu-Weather down the road. Hurricane? No problem, come on down! Yeah, and the travel industry would love to have some influence on forecasts too.

Sad to say, but this is the way much of our society works today. I hope that we can at least stop this from happening.

Oh! Oh! There's a 99.9% chance that that hurricane is going to wipe out this here neighborhood where corporation X produces all it's product. Expect prices on all products corporation X makes to double, and their stock to take a hit.

(sound of frantic keyboards clicking in livingrooms across the U.S.)

Oooopss! We were wrong! Looks like corporation X is getting out of this one scott free -- and, to boot, their biggest competitor got hit!

(sound of large brokerage firms chuckling "suckers!")

What, should they have written out in REALLY BIG LETTERS what a category 5 hurricane was? It was strong enough to make the Governor ask for LA to be declared a state of emergency a couple of days before it hit. What else could the weather service do?

Santorum needs some help. I'm starting to feel sorry for his deluded ass.

government agency to accurately call the magnitude of the impending destruction.

of this situation should now make this entire argument dead in the water, so just and drop it! They've proven themselves, unlike your party!

I can only imagine what we would have seen if he had succeeded in privitizing this prior to Katrina.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/refresh/KATRINA+shtml/

Tuesday August 23, 2005
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

25.1N 77.7W 52 X X X 52 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 2 9 11
25.7N 78.5W 36 1 X X 37 SAVANNAH GA X X X 6 6
26.1N 79.5W 18 6 1 1 26 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3
MUCF 221N 805W X 1 X 3 4 KEY WEST FL 1 5 3 5 14
MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL X 10 4 4 18
MUHA 230N 824W X 1 1 4 6 FT MYERS FL X 8 5 5 18
MYSM 241N 745W 47 X X X 47 VENICE FL X 4 7 6 17
MYEG 235N 758W 99 X X X 99 TAMPA FL X 2 7 7 16
MYAK 241N 776W 51 X X X 51 CEDAR KEY FL X X 5 9 14
MYNN 251N 775W 54 X X X 54 ST MARKS FL X X 1 8 9
MYGF 266N 787W 21 5 1 X 27 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 8 9
MARATHON FL 4 7 2 3 16 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 7 7
MIAMI FL 9 9 2 2 22 PENSACOLA FL X X X 4 4
W PALM BEACH FL 4 13 3 2 22 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2
FT PIERCE FL 1 11 5 3 20 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 9 10
COCOA BEACH FL X 7 6 6 19 GULF 29N 87W X X X 6 6
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 7 7 15 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/prb/al122005.prblty.002.shtml?

AT 11 PM EDT... 0300Z... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public.002.shtml?

Wednesday August 24, 2005
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

26.0N 79.5W 55 X X X 55 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2
26.0N 80.5W 30 1 X 1 32 KEY WEST FL 4 9 2 2 17
26.3N 81.5W 14 9 1 1 25 MARCO ISLAND FL 11 10 1 2 24
MUCF 221N 805W X X 1 1 2 FT MYERS FL 8 11 3 1 23
MUSN 216N 826W X X 1 1 2 VENICE FL 1 12 5 3 21
MUHA 230N 824W X 3 2 2 7 TAMPA FL 1 8 6 4 19
MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 7 8 16
MYAK 241N 776W 1 X 1 2 4 ST MARKS FL X X 1 10 11
MYNN 251N 775W 99 X X X 99 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 10 11
MYGF 266N 787W 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 9 9
MARATHON FL 11 6 1 1 19 PENSACOLA FL X X X 6 6
MIAMI FL 32 1 X X 33 MOBILE AL X X X 4 4
W PALM BEACH FL 40 X X X 40 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4
FT PIERCE FL 28 1 1 X 30 BURAS LA X X X 4 4
COCOA BEACH FL 15 6 1 2 24 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 3 3
DAYTONA BEACH FL 2 8 5 4 19 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 11 13
JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 4 8 13 GULF 29N 87W X X X 9 9
SAVANNAH GA X X 1 6 7 GULF 28N 89W X X X 6 6
CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 91W X X X 3 3
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/prb/al122005.prblty.006.shtml?

THE 2300Z RECONNAISSANCE FIX AND RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND THE
BAHAMAS INDICATE THAT KATRINA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THIS
PATTERN WOULD FORCE KATRINA TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY FRIDAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS...BRINGS
THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD. BEYOND THREE DAYS...WHEN KATRINA IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...SUGGESTING TRACKS WHICH COVER THE COAST FROM
MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS KATRINA NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING
TROUGH...ON A TRACK WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST IS RATHER DIFFICULT SINCE ONE OF THE MORE
RELIABLE MODELS...THE GFS...SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE BARELY TOUCHES
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD....WHILE THE
OUTSTANDING GFDL MOVES KATRINA SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AS A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE. THE GFDL
SCENARIO WOULD BE VERY DANGEROUS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS APPEARS TO
BE UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME BUT BECAUSE OF THE GOOD PAST
PERFORMANCE OF THIS MODEL...WE MUST PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al122005.discus.006.shtml?

...KATRINA HEADING WESTWARD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...HURRICANE WARNINGS
IN EFFECT...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public.006.shtml?

Thursday August 25, 2005
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

25.5N 83.0W 45 X X X 45 FT MYERS FL 56 X X X 56
26.0N 84.0W 31 X 1 X 32 VENICE FL 37 X X X 37
26.5N 84.5W 22 3 1 1 27 TAMPA FL 19 2 2 1 24
MUSN 216N 826W X 1 X 1 2 CEDAR KEY FL 5 8 4 3 20
MUHA 230N 824W 7 2 1 X 10 ST MARKS FL X 5 5 7 17
MUAN 219N 850W X 1 1 2 4 APALACHICOLA FL X 6 6 6 18
MYGF 266N 787W X X 1 3 4 PANAMA CITY FL X 3 5 8 16
MARATHON FL 53 X X X 53 PENSACOLA FL X X 2 11 13
MIAMI FL 99 X X X 99 MOBILE AL X X 1 9 10
W PALM BEACH FL 99 X X X 99 GULFPORT MS X X X 9 9
FT PIERCE FL 35 X X X 35 BURAS LA X X X 9 9
COCOA BEACH FL 4 3 3 4 14 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 7 7
DAYTONA BEACH FL 1 4 4 5 14 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 4 4
JACKSONVILLE FL X 2 5 6 13 GULF 29N 85W 2 8 5 5 20
SAVANNAH GA X X 1 7 8 GULF 29N 87W X 2 5 9 16
CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 89W X X 1 10 11
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 91W X X X 6 6
KEY WEST FL 40 1 X X 41 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2
MARCO ISLAND FL 99 X X X 99
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/prb/al122005.prblty.010.shtml?

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT KATRINA WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al122005.discus.010.shtml?

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD...AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public.010.shtml?

Friday August 26, 2005
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

25.0N 86.0W 46 X X X 46 BURAS LA X 2 11 6 19
26.0N 87.5W 20 10 X X 30 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 8 9 17
27.0N 89.0W 1 15 6 1 23 NEW IBERIA LA X X 2 12 14
MUAN 219N 850W 2 X X X 2 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 9 9
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 GALVESTON TX X X X 7 7
VENICE FL 1 1 X 1 3 FREEPORT TX X X X 5 5
TAMPA FL X 1 1 1 3 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 3 3
CEDAR KEY FL X 1 1 3 5 GULF 29N 85W 1 9 3 2 15
ST MARKS FL X 1 4 4 9 GULF 29N 87W 1 13 5 2 21
APALACHICOLA FL X 5 5 3 13 GULF 28N 89W X 11 9 2 22
PANAMA CITY FL X 5 6 4 15 GULF 28N 91W X 1 11 5 17
PENSACOLA FL X 2 9 6 17 GULF 28N 93W X X 2 9 11
MOBILE AL X 1 8 8 17 GULF 28N 95W X X X 6 6
GULFPORT MS X 1 8 9 18 GULF 27N 96W X X X 3 3
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/prb/al122005.prblty.015.shtml?

KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE STUBBORNLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR
250 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF A VERY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER MEAN HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS. IN FACT...DATA FROM THE
NOAA JET JUST RELAYED BY THE METEOROLOGIST ONBOARD INDICATE THAT
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BE VERY STRONG. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND LEAVE A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. KATRINA WILL LIKELY TAKE THAT OPPORTUNITY AND
BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE INTENSE
HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 48 HOURS OR SO.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND MOST
OF THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW CLUSTERED BETWEEN
THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS
CLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al122005.discus.015.shtml?

...STUBBORN KATRINA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...EXPECTED
TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public.015.shtml?

Saturday August 27, 2005
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

27.0N 89.0W 40 X X X 40 BURAS LA 3 23 1 X 27
29.0N 89.8W 7 21 1 X 29 NEW ORLEANS LA X 23 3 X 26
31.0N 89.8W X 12 9 1 22 NEW IBERIA LA X 18 4 1 23
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3 PORT ARTHUR TX X 7 6 1 14
SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 GALVESTON TX X 4 5 1 10
CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 FREEPORT TX X 2 3 2 7
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X 1 X 2 3
CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 2 3 GULF 29N 85W 1 4 3 1 9
ST MARKS FL X 1 3 3 7 GULF 29N 87W 6 12 1 X 19
APALACHICOLA FL X 3 5 1 9 GULF 28N 89W 25 6 X X 31
PANAMA CITY FL X 5 5 2 12 GULF 28N 91W 13 14 X X 27
PENSACOLA FL X 9 7 1 17 GULF 28N 93W 2 12 1 1 16
MOBILE AL X 12 7 1 20 GULF 28N 95W X 3 2 X 5
GULFPORT MS X 17 6 X 23
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/prb/al122005.prblty.019.shtml?

IT APPEARS THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AND LEAVES A WEAKNESS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...AND A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD RESULT IN A PATTERN THAT
FORCES KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY
CLOSELY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al122005.discus.019.shtml?

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA THREATENS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...A HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED...
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public.019.shtml?

Sunday August 28, 2005
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

31.8N 89.5W 43 2 X X 45 NANTUCKET MA X X X 2 2
34.8N 88.1W 3 30 1 X 34 HYANNIS MA X X X 2 2
37.7N 85.9W X 3 20 1 24 BOSTON MA X X X 2 2
CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 PORTLAND ME X X X 2 2
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 PANAMA CITY FL 1 1 X X 2
WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2 PENSACOLA FL 18 3 1 X 22
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 2 2 MOBILE AL 40 X X X 40
CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS 54 X X X 54
NORFOLK VA X X X 4 4 BURAS LA 77 X X X 77
OCEAN CITY MD X X X 5 5 NEW ORLEANS LA 59 X X X 59
ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 5 5 NEW IBERIA LA 28 1 X X 29
NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 5 5 GULF 29N 87W 8 2 X X 10
MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 89W 99 X X X 99
PROVIDENCE RI X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 91W 47 X X X 47
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/prb/al122005.prblty.025.shtml?

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODEST CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF KATRINA OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT AN OUTER
EYEWALL IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES...AND THE LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW
A LESS WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL WITH MORE EVIDENCE OF OUTER BANDING.
THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS ALSO REPORTED AN EROSION OF THE EYEWALL
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME WEAKENING OF KATRINA PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALL THIS IS
RELATIVE...HOWEVER...AND KATRINA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OF AT
LEAST CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST. AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ALL GOOD NEWS...AS THEY ARE
GENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A BROADENING OF THE WIND FIELD...SO THAT
EVEN AS KATRINA WEAKENS THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE AREA THAT
EXPERIENCES MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al122005.discus.025.shtml?

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public.025.shtml?

"It's better to be thought of as an idiot than to open your mouth and prove yourself one."

out of touch with reality and living in the wrong century. As a Pennsylvanian I cant believe he was voted in--I sure didnt vote for the twit. I live in rural PA a red county (cough, choke, gag) but I have been seeing some of the repugs throwing fits lately to their leader, maybe times are changing here in the backwoods :)

I don't live even close to the Gulf, and I received the impression that this was going to be horrible!

This man needs to be committed to a sanatarium. He is about as removed from reality as any wingnut christo-fascist can be. . .

I have been a bit lazy in putting these things on my website, but it does include a section on "Republicans Say the Darndest Things". Obviously in the last two weeks alone, enough has been said and done to fill at least one whole website. (and i don't even usually include Bush things, as that is just too much...and others are already doing that)

So i will maybe get around to posting this quote in this section of my web.
http://www.tomjoad.org/republicanfunnies.htm

I have long thought that Santorum belongs in a sanitarium. He is a sick, sick, man.

Dumb fuck.

I checked the NHC (National Hurricane Center) site on Saturday morning (Aug 27) to check Katrina's track, and I knew without even reading any other statements on the site that New Orleans was in trouble. I didn't even read the discussion, because I could tell just from the maps that Katrina would hit New Orleans as a near-category-5 hurricane.

However, that data could not have been developed sooner, because Katrina consistently tracked south of where the models suggested in the 24 hours after it entered the Gulf.

By Saturday night, there were VERY strongly worded warnings posted on site. I read one around 9:00 pm. It is very rare for the National Weather Service to put exclamation points in their statements, and the one I read literally had one ending every other sentence. The whole thing basically boiled down to one thing, to be blunt: Get your kids, get your shit, and get out of Dodge NOW.

Bottom line - the NHC really did an excellent job, and Rick Santorum should desist from speaking about subjects of which he has little knowledge, lest he further reveal his considerable (and lamentable) ignorance. It is a terrible shame that he cannot do his job even a tenth as well as the fellows at the NHC did theirs.

PsA

Thanks for the details of your interesting personal experience during the situation. So many of us had the same experience.

I can't imagine a Democrat getting away with the ridiculous things that this man does and says.

EOM

not sufficient warning? JFC, that's all there was, was fucking warnings. They were all over on it, like white on rice. Thats all I ever saw that week, was which path the hurricane was gonna take, and how stong it was.