http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&traveler=0&article=0

Rita's Impact Could Rival Katrina & Dennis
Monday, September 19, 2005 12:03 PM EDT


Tropical Storm Rita is quickly gathering strength, and is expected to become a hurricane later today. It's impact on south Florida and the Florida Keys is going to be considerable, especially since those areas are still recuperating from Hurricane Katrina.
Because of Katrina's devastating impact on the Gulf Coast most people forget that after pounding South Florida the storm brought some very heavy rain to the Keys. In fact, 9.66" of rain fell on Key West on August 26th, the 5th highest daily rainfall amount in its history.
Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has declared a State of Emergency, and there is a mandatory evacuation order for all non-residents and tourists along with residents of mobile home communities and flood-prone regions. But as with Katrina, the bottom line is that this has the potential to be devastating, so the recommendation is for everyone in the Keys to get to safety.

Once Rita moves into the Gulf of Mexico it's going to intensify to at least Category 4 strength before making landfall by Friday or Saturday. AccuWeather's current projected path has landfall somewhere between Corpus Christie, Texas and Lake Charles, Louisiana
The storm could rival Katrina when it comes to economic impact. The Gulf supplies 29% of the nation's domestic oil production and 19% of the domestic gas production. According to Gary Strasburg of the federal Mineral Management Service there are some 4,000 oil rigs and platforms in the Gulf. As this MMS map shows, the majority of them are west of the path taken by Hurricane Katrina.
AccuWeather's hurricane expert Joe Bastardi says if Rita strikes Texas with Category 3 strength or higher the damage total could be as high as $10 to $15 Billion, a huge financial hit as the nation continues to recover from Hurricane Katrina. The price tag for Katrina's recovery efforts is expected to top $200 Billion.

AccuWeather's meteorologists and News Director Steve Penstone will continue to track Rita and its impact on the United States.

If Rita reaches it's potential ,
Think about it....89-90 degree gulf water....we've been here before.
If it doesn't bust us as a nation.....surely it may wake the "majority" as to how vulnerable we are...."homeland security , indeed.........maybe it'll hit rich folks in the gulf ...(not that I wish that on ANYONE , ....but maybe...after Katrina , it will show where the power lies.

But they are still in the mid-80s, plenty to fuel a major hurricane.

89 degree again!

...wind shear is usually less as fall come on. Hurricanes are very sensitive to wind shear in the upper atmosphere. They need a nice vertical exhaust pipe. This one could hit the Gulf oil rigs as bad as Katrina. bob

Aren't dramatically increased storm severity and frequency one of the more immediate impacts of Global Warming? This is such a juicy news angle, I don't know why they don't play on it. This news angle would generate infinite debate and emotion. It might actually educate people, so we wouldn't want that.

The water temperature of the Gulf has steadily risen to become 5-7* higher than what has been historically normal, and this creates more extreme weather systems like we are seeing time and again.

Or put a Hex on it so it goes off and punishes the Mexican drug dealers

just like some scientists were saying for years that there was no such thing as the Greenhouse effect on Global Warming.

What does Barbara Bush have to do with this? :evilgrin:

. . . the difference in government response if Rita has a similar impact that Katrina had in New Orleans on a Tex ax city like Houston.

the Republicans will say it's because they've learned a lesson from Katrina... not because it's "Texas".

To quote my now grown DD "Uh huh... sure... right... yeah... whatever :eyes: "

. . . I thought of that just after I posted. Hopefully something we won't have to find out.

:puke:

a governor we've ever had second only to bush... of course he's a bush buddy, so that explains that.

so this is really going to be interesting. Wonder if they are already moving the oil, securing the refineries ... Isn't Haliburton's home office based in Houston too?

I know my grandfather will evacuated, like tomorrow, if there's any chance it'll hit him (SE of Houston, 30 min from LA).

But one of my uncles is always stuck at the refinery. :(

This is from Tropical Storm Risk .com <http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/>, which I found to be very accurate for most storms. They predicted Katrina's landfall almost exactly at about 5 days out.


According to this, the Texas landfall would be in about 117 hours from now.

(NOTE: I'm posting this on September 19, 2005 at 3:00pm EDT)

I found this website about two years ago, and they are almost always right, although sometime they underestimate the actual wind speed. At this point in Katrina's track, they were predicting a Cat. 3 storm.

You might want to copy this link and check back in on it about every 6-12 hours. <http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/>

I'm not too worried about my family. If they need to get out, then they will, with the exception of the few that will have to stay behind at the refinery.

They live in the Beaumont/Pt Arthur area, that's why I'd hope for west of Houston.

Thanks that link will be handy. :)

Houston, Galveston, Beaumont and Port Arthur could still have fairly significant damage from a category 4 hurricane even if it hit to the west of Houston. Unless by west, you meant Corpus or Brownsville. :)

If it has to hit anywhere, the deserted estuaries and bays of central LA would probably show the least impact on us humans.

I do mean WEST to Corpus or Brownsville. :)

Yesterday, I went out and bought extra water, candles and other things to get prepared. This morning I'm going to fill up the tank. I know Houston...IT WILL FLOOD. No doubt about it.

downgraded to TS tropical strom, meaning less wind but lots of water.

They're now saying it could be at a least Category 4.

I can't imagine what the people on the Texas coast who're victims of Katrina must be thinking.

Most of the displaced LA children will most likely thing that God Hates them.

It will be interesting to see how much different the WH, FEMA and the City of Houston react to this. How much you want to bet that Texas gets almost instant help?

But if it turns south and hits Brownsville, all bets are off. If it hits Brownsville and we see similar "mobilization and Logistics problems," I think anyone who still doubts the racial aspect of N.O. will become believers.

But I do get your point special attention needs to be paid to them right now. This is going to wreck havoc on the children especially.

HOLY SHIT!

:kick:

:scared:

:silly:

that would be devastating for evacuees who have felt safe in Houston. Houston is prone to flooding, too. It would be double PTSD. Very bad, indeed.

*Edited to add I nominated the thread.

all-encompassing flooding New Orleans experienced. We're 50 miles inland and 50 feet above sea level, so the problem wouldn't be the storm surge so much as the rain flooding all the bayous. The streets would be impassable for a while and some buildings would get water but things would drain quickly after the storm moved on. It would be a horrendous mess and very traumatic for the evacuees but most of the water would run off in a matter of hours. The biggest physical problem would be power outages and blocked roads (branches, stalled cars) in the aftermath. And all those carpets on the curb, waiting for trash pickup. ;(

I agree, though; when it comes to trauma, the only thing worse than NOLA taking another hit would be for Galveston/Houston to take one on the chin right now, with so many evacuees here. The storm track has shifted a lot in the last twelve hours, though, so anything could happen.

But back in February the Chronicle ran a three part series of what could happen in Houston if a major hurricane hit Galveston. If a major surge hit the ship channel, the force could send the water rushing up almost every bayou in the city. Of course, it would be within minutes, not the slow rise of the heavy rains we get.

It showed maps of where the banks would overflow and they included the reservoir at HWY 6 and I-10 and the Bear Creek overflow area, a good ways away from the coast. It would depend on how fast and efficient the pumping was at the various bayou stations and anyone who lives near one knows, it ain't so hot. But even with the pumping, where would it go? To the ship channel, where it came surging in?

Just a good quick downpour will flood our street up over the sidewalk. I hate to imagine what would happen if a 1/4 mile away, the Buffalo Bayou overran it's banks. Plus, because of the fact that the city resurfaced many of the streets around here by just pouring more concrete over the cracked concrete, they effectively covered most drainpipes that took water out of our backyards. We like many neighbors installed sump pumps to carry the water onto our driveways, to run out to the street. Unfortunately, the sump pumps require the electricity to be working.

We wouldn't be completely underwater, but there were homes as far in as I-10 and Wilcrest that during Tropical Storm Alison a few years ago, ended up with 2 ft of water from bayou overflowing.

to do that, and whether a category 3 would have enough power to make that happen. I sure don't remember anything like that happening during Alicia, but I was living in Austin at the time. A storm doesn't have to a have a lot of wind force to be bad news for Houston, as we saw with Allison. All of the development that's happened in the last twenty years has left us with lots of pavement and no place for the water to go except into the bayous. And if they're not wide enough or deep enough to carry the outflow... or something's pushing into them from the Bay... :scared:

A lot of structures nearly underwater and deaths from drowning. I remember a story about people taking an elevator down to the bottom of a building and drowning.

I found a site on it:

http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/special/01/flood/index.html

We had to move our office because of Allison. Couldn't get in for 2 weeks.

Haven't soiled myself to go over and see what they are spewing recently... but if these dumb asses haven't acknowledged the reality of global warming yet, they are even more stupid than their emperor.

Added that global warming is making it into Super force of nature its just a given. I just pray that they get the people out that can't make it out on their own. if i have to i will fly my ass there, get a van and drive people out myself. Shouldn't have to do that since we have all that money to dish out in the government.

I hate Accuweather because they make up garbage like this just for headlines. There is no current official or knowledgable data that Hurricane Rita will be at least a Cat 4. Doesn't mean it could not be, but that Joe Bastardi is a total flake.

However, no problemo. I have the answer for us Houstonians - Motley Crue is playing at the Toyota Center Saturday night where we can all seek shelter before the hurricane hits, like the N.O. citizens did in the Superdome for Katrina. May have to be an accoustic set with flashlights and no A/C, but what the hell. Motley Crue can sing some of their best songs for us hurricane Rita shelter victims while we wait 5 days for any form of help, hydration, and nutrition. Such Crue classics as:

1. Toilets Overflowing in the Boys Room.
2. Same 'Ol Situation
3. Afraid, and their new hit single
4. "If I Die Tomorrow"



PS: I can say stuff like this because I'm a Republican, lol.

He has category three but it's days out, and anything could happen.

Bouy Marker 42003, E GULF 260 nm South of Panama City, FL, survived Hurricane Ivan, which produced the largest wave heights on record, in the area. Hurricane Katrina took out Bouy Marker 42003 and it's a large and very stable ocean bouy.

I was tracking all the bouy marker data before NOAA's system went down with Katrina. Saw 68 ft wave height at BM-42003 before it got wiped out. In theory this is suppose to be the back side of the wave, not the front which is even larger. Impressive!

Luckly BM-42001 is still intact, post Katrina, but NOAA has been having some trouble with it. BM-42002, W GULF 240 nm South-Southeast of Sabine, TX, is in great shape however.

....wonder if they'll have to cancel the tour or postpone it. :shrug:

http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/mld/ledgerenquirer/12673629.htm

and performed again last night, despite the doctor telling him to take a Tour break. Crue doesn't plan on missing any tour dates because of his injury which is very painful and greatly limits his mobility.

your use of fake Spanish appalling. It discredits anything you have to say. In proper Spanish, the language spoken by several tens of millions of people worldwide, there is no such phrase or sentence as "No problemo". Stop polluting my native language with your neologism. In Spanish, when there is no problem, we say "No hay problema." Only the ignorant persist in disseminating such a ridiculous phrase as "no problemo".Furthermore, I have to assume that any Spanish speaker who hears you say this thinks of you in less than favorable fashion. To follow your lead, "There AIN'T NO problem with being dumb" (notice the double negative).

Por favor, Ud. debe aprender la lengua antes de tratar de usarla.

You catch more flies with honey...
Explain gently, improve someone's foreign language skills vs be hostile and make them angry and resentful.
Kind of what we call a no brainer in English, don't know the Spanish for it.

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but how nice you are to take back YOUR harsh words. I totally understood your reaction though. :-)

Never mind. ( In her best Emily Latella) LOL

That is about the most unwarranted, assinine attack I have ever seen on DU.

:eyes:

And the Fonz was italian so if anything it's bastardised italian.

Don't worry about the language around these threads, Ben, I find DU to have the most interesting source of words and expressions and ideas available anywhere. If you know of anything or anywhere else, let me know, cause I would like to check it out. If you are an avid reader you will discover each poster has his/her own style and alot of it regionally typical and so slang at times it becomes its own language. That is the beauty of American English anyway... the dynamic aspect. American English in particular has absorbed and initiated and morphed so much that it is light years away from what it originally was and you will find as a critic you will grow to appreciate the fluidity and diversity on these boards.

I also speak another language, Portuguese, and gave up many years ago trying to correct and point out the importance of my second language as I find that English is the most concise, easily assimilated and defined communication tool available.

Another publication that fascinates me as far as the English choice of words is "Wired" (and I have read it solely for the language choices and structures--not because I understand the subject content--which is normally way over my comprehension level)

Anyways, welcome to DU, I enjoyed your other post today in regards to Chavez and Cuba.
:hi:

I'm trying to recall appropriate phrases to express sympathy, but it's been many decades since my Spanish classes. It is a beautiful language. However, that phrase, no problemo, is so commonly used, that I hate to see you get so upset at it. There are so many more important things with which to be concerned, and which you probably have some insights to share with us on this board In particular, I would be interested on your thoughts concerning the US relationship with Mexico, Central American and Latin American countries. So I hope you stick around.

Buenos dios, senor!

PS - I was advised before my first trip to France, that I should try to speak my (pathetique) French, so as not to appear as some arrogant US/American expecting everyone to speak English. I did, and most of the French people then graciously spoke English to me. Of course I prefaced every attempt with an apology for my poor abilities in the French language.

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The colloquialism you're thinking of would be "chinga", though mi madre would not think it proper.

...it's much more fun to imagine him trying to insult people in another language, only to be rewarded by uncomprehending stares or derisive laughter.

count. What have you got?

http://www.google.com/search?q=cinga+tu+madre&sourceid=mozilla-search&start=0&start=0&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official

I've heard it as chinga more often though.

:toast:

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If I don't make myself heard, how can I prove my worth?

Perhaps all you mean is that newcomers shouldn't be criticising other posters; with that I agree. Personal criticism and complaints over spelling and grammer are simply a waste of time. One of the things I like about this forum is the courtesy shown by most contributers.

"No problemo" is part of the lexicon of the country. So are a lot of other "innacurate" phrases.

Just joined up to criticize us, huh?

No problemo for you, dude!

"no problemo"!
I mean, who fucking cares?:shrug:

auf Deutsch naturlich!!

nyet problemski, either?

no problemo is SOOOO 1990's.

lighten up.

:-)

now you're bastardizing my language :toast:

En lo que se trata de la expresion, Ben, es una expresion corriente sin intencion de lastimar a ningun hispanohablante. Asi que tranquilate, y bienvenido a DU! :toast:

I thought you might appreciate a Don Quixote allusion. :shrug:

Quite a few people capable of speaking good Spanish & good English play around & mix the languages.

If snobs on both sides of the Border are offended--too bad! "Spanish only" is just as stupid as "English only."

I am learning Spanish as my second language and have the opportunity to practice with native Spanish speakers. I'm sure I make lots of grammatical mistakes, but none of them jump on me about it.

"No problemo" or "no problema" is really just a phrase now in vogue to mean "no problem" and it isn't meant to be totally standard Spanish.

But, life has been amazing ever since the calamity of Bush taking office. Sometimes you start to wonder about it all.

It's very amazing.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Last Updated: 5:18 PM GMT on September 19, 2005
Last Comment Added: 5:24 PM GMT on September 19, 2005

Key West in the bullseye from Rita
Posted By: JeffMasters at 4:35 PM GMT on September 19, 2005
Updated: 5:18 PM GMT on September 19, 2005
There's a church in Key West called the St. Mary's Star of the Sea Roman Catholic Church. In 1922, a nun built a "hurricane grotto" on the grounds of the church in memory of the 600 who died during the great Atlantic-Gulf hurricane of Sept. 10, 1919, a Category 4 hurricane that made a direct hit on Key West. The nun vowed that as long as the grotto stood, Key West would not suffer the brunt of another hurricane. Key West residents regularly make pilgrimages to the grotto to pray for protection from hurricanes. And so far, the grotto has worked--no Key West resident has died from a hurricane strike since the 1919 hurricane. I've heard from at least one Key West resident that plans to pay a visit to the grotto today, which I think is a good idea. A little divine intervention is what is needed this Hurricane Season of 2005. The current model runs were apparently not initialized last night with the "grotto factor", since they all show Rita's path taking the storm over or very near Key West. Still, the average error in a 24 hour forecast has been about 60 miles the past 10 years, so Key West may yet miss the brunt of this hurricane.

And a hurricane it will be. Satellite images show that deep convection has now wrapped all the way around the west side of Rita and into the center, where a complete eyewall is starting to form. Spiral bands from the storm are already visible on Miami long-range radar as Rita moves towards Florida and expands in size. Winds at George Town in the Bahama Islands were 37 mph, gusting to 57 mph at noon today. The 12:15 satellite intensity estimate from the University of Wisconsin was 991 mb and 68 mph surface winds. There won't be another hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm until 2pm EDT today, but I think we can anticipate that they will find a continuation of the strengthening trend observed today. Rita will be a hurricane by early this evening, and probably a Category 2 hurricane tomorrow. A 6 - 9 foot storm surge can be expected near and 50 miles to the to the north of where Rita's eye passes, and a foot higher if she hits near high tide (11am Tuesday). The surge plus the wind damage will cause hundreds of millions in damage in the Keys, but should cuase no major loss of life, since I'm sure after Katrina residents of low-lying areas under evacuation orders will be compelled to comply more readily than usual.

Where will Rita hit?
Take your pick of today's models runs:

GFDL: Central Louisiana (Houma)
GFS: Western Louisiana (Lake Charles)
UKMET: Eastern Texas (Galveston)
NOGAPS: South Texas (Corpus Christi)

Each set of model runs has moved the track of Rita progressively further east. The official NHC forecast has been following along, but staying further back. What we've seen so far this hurricane season is that when the models start trending this way, that's where the storm eventually winds up going. So my best guess is that Rita will hit Louisiana Friday as a Category 3 hurricane. What's the average error for a 5-day forecast? 270 miles. So, everyone from the Florida Panhandle to the Mexican border is still at risk.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

in the Gulf.

And if it tracks a bit east of Port Arthur it goes right over the highest concentration of rigs in the Gulf. Shit.

First New Orleans (hurricane), then Houston (shipping accident).

Looks like a real 1-2 punch on GOM production is setting up.

If those refineries produced 1.8 B/dy, we could all be driving Hummers. Driving until the earth cooks us off, that is.

Otherwise, a good graphic, though.

Possible Rita path..

much.

It's clearly developing an eye and getting much better organized

You left that chair outside for a long time. One day you sit on it and land on your butt. You blame gravity.

When it's 3 days out, or have they already started raising the pump prices, "to alleviate the Hurricane's impact on Profits?"

BTW, is that REALLY the AccuWeather guy's name, Joe Bastardi?

historical backup for making the decisions that he does. Yes, I have a paid subscription to AccuWeather, but it's because I'm a weather geek too. Got it originally when it was a freebie, then got hooked on it.

As to the gasoline prices, they JUST started coming down here in Delaware and have actually come down 3 days in a row now. The lowest I've seen in $2.91. Go across the line to Maryland and pay $2.85. Just told hubby not to get used to it based on the track of this storm and the fact that hurricane season isn't nearly over yet.

Also, just realized from you post that "AccuWeather" and are two different things. I always thought they were the same. I would have sworn that "The Weather Channel" often says, "and now for your AccuWeather Forecast?" Do they use "AccuWeather" for the "Local Forecast?"

I get "AccuWeather" free on my "Palm Pilot" through AvantGo.

Here's a link to my favorite website for Hurricane forecast, they have lots of things to click on and I've found it to be very accurate, over the last 2 years, since I found it.

<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/>



This is their forecast track for 117 hours out, and it will update it's self, so gradually the track will move past Houston.

into Galveston Bay, we are screwed. Those refineries north of Galveston are in Texas City, along the Bay, and all the ones on the north end of Galveston Bay are in Baytown/DeerPark/Pasadena.

Also the average depth of Galveston Bay is only 7 feet. It amazing how shallow it is for being so large. A direct impact would destroy the ship channel, all the shrimp in the Bay, and seriously back up Clear Lake, which joins Galveston Bay, causing massive home and boat damage. The Clear Lake area has the 2nd largest number of sailboats docked in the U.S.

GLOBAL WARMING?

and put together and send to him a DVD with information about global warming. It has to be primarily visual information that is - with animation so it keeps his attention.

he made about the New Orleans levees. Send it the Pretzelnit.

Another big plus is that the Mr. Bill video is short enough that it will be over before his attention span expires.

we have found a 20-30 year cycle of ups and downs. The 80s and 90s were down decades, with the Atlantic not generating as many or as many strong hurricanes as the 60s and 70s. Now we're back to the stronger end of the cycle, and in the meantime, the population of the Gulf Coast has exploded.

During the last peak hurricane cycle, not as many people lived on the Gulf Coast because the weather was harder to take without cheap, effective air conditioning. (I remember those crappy window ACs from the 70s...) As AC became more affordable in the 80s and 90s, the other attractions of the Gulf Coast became more apparent, and the region's population grew. There are other factors, of course, but the fact that the population is bigger makes a hurricane more damaging.

This is the norm for the next 20 to 30 years, and it may go longer, depending on what happens with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic heat pump. But part of it is just the normal cycle. Global warming is more showing itself in the polar regions and the the sub-arctic tundra.

a mini vacation at Town Creek. It would have been my only chance at a vacation this year. Now, they'll be able to raise those gas prices to $5.00/gallon.

On a serious note, it looks like they could start evacuating people for now. That's the least the greedy bastards could do. We don't need any more lives lost.

Well, fuck a duck, as Bill O'Reilly would say....that puts me on the east side of the hurricane....hmmm, no going to DC for me this weekend, I guess. Damn. Anyone know how large that thing is projected to be, in miles?

...at one point. The Weather channel compared it to Hurricane Charlie from 2004, which was 60 miles across (Hurricane force winds).

Here a forecast at this point, but this is only for a Cat. 3, It might be stronger by landfall:



This Graphic is the 69 hour forecast.
Note: This graphic will change and self update. <http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/>

I despise that Spurs basketball team :sarcasm:

Tropical Storm Rita Will Gain Strength as It Moves Over Florida

Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical storm Rita is expected to turn into a hurricane as it moves over southern Florida today on a path that would reach Texas and Louisiana late this week.

(snip)

Rita may turn into a hurricane within the next few hours. The storm is forecast to cross over the Florida Keys today and into the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow. Rita will brush against a region already devastated by Hurricane Katrina late last month.

Rita may change course or develop into a ``major hurricane'' in the next few days, meaning it would be at least a Category 3 storm with winds above 111 mph, hurricane center meteorologist Jennifer Pralgo said in an interview.

``It's going into fairly warm waters -- that's the right environment for a hurricane to develop and strengthen,'' Pralgo said. ``There's always a possibility of a track change. It's still five days'' away from the Texas coast, she said.
(snip)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aJ5FRG3PPzo4&refer=top_world_news

Katrina, Rita.... they RHYME! :tinfoilhat: :scared:

So rhyming wouldn't be a big problem. How about Amelia, Brenda, Clara, Diana, Eva, Freida, Gina, Helga, Imelda, etc. just keep adding to the alphabet. So maybe it's not anything scary.

One of my pet peeves is giving HUMAN (both MALE and FEMALE) names to hurricanes. They have no gender -- they are IT, not HIM or HER.

No, I don't have any solutions, but I just needed to rant.

I lived in Florida for 28 years and scheduled to go to a high school reunion in October or November 2006, probably in Orlando. After this year and last year, I'm not sure I'll make it...

Edit: Tonight, one of the female newscasters said to Rita Cosby, "I hope they won't be using YOUR name in vain later this week, Rita!" I'll bet she thought that was a CUTE remark. Well, it wasn't.

The letters of Rita are found in Katrina. kATRIna RITA

.... Florida and, indirectly, Houston, TX.

Fascinating.

not blue by much, but blue nonetheless.

n/t

And who got your electoral votes in 2004?

... is that the 'targets' of Mother Nature's hostilities seem to be BUSHES.

Jebus. :eyes:

You think that everyone here in Texas is a Bush.

not "blue states", but "blue" people.

but Winter Park is Red, and they got fairly hammered. It all balances out in the end.

will become missiles. I don't like this at all.

there!

Shit.

I would rather it not.

...it will hit my (quite liberal) sister-in-law and her family in Austin earlier that day. Possibly still at Cat3 strength. :scared:

If Crawford gets hit, that will be more than a sign.

Heavy rains are about the worst they could get. And they probably need the rain.

land inward) quite hard. It case extensive damage throughout the entire state. Hurricane Francis last year washed out part of the Blue Ridge Parkway in NC. Rita could spawn tornados and massive rain.
Crawford is located about 200 from the coast. It will depend how fast Rita moves.

...they cannot imagine that someone so "right" could be so wrong. See when you are a wing nut, all you have to do is use the name 'Jeezus' in a way not a "swear word", in any sentence, and poof! You are just SO holy.

These people are clueless. Frankly I think God is getting in their face every day and they refuse to acknowledge it, even while death-angels are pouring vials of crude-black poison into their water. Even when a huge freakin' storm the size of two states is bearing down on them like the four apocalyptic horses snorting and breathing fire ...

Fools! LOL!

Cat In Seattle <---Not a prophetess, but someone who wishes right wing nuts would all go to the red part of Texas and start that wing nut cabal they want, and, o btw, take Limpdick, O'Really and the rest of the FAUX suits with them. Maybe we could take away their children and fence them in with lots of TALL barbed wire so they can safely just shoot each other while schlepping with Bushriech...:argh:

Accchh! Typos plague me!

I was just copying the same maps...I'm contracting at a bank and overheard the person in the cube next to me saying on the phone (personal call) that it was a shame how the minimum-wage laws were going to be suspended when the people of the gulf region most needed real jobs to get back on their feet.

So I mentioned to him that it was also a shame that another potentially damaging hurrican (Rita) was about to hit the gulf again.

He said, "That's unimaginable. But if it hit Crawford, it might be a 'sign'...."

So I went to the landfall projection map, then checked a MapQuest image for "Crawford, TX."

So...horrific as it is, with a few of America's most extremist "clerics" claiming that Katrina is a curse from God against (gay folk, abortion, etc.) the thought of storm/hurricane Rita heading straight for Crawford should give them pause in their "finger pointing."

New Rita projected tracks map looks a lot better for Galveston/Houston, and unfortunately Crawford. Just have to wait until this thing gets into the Gulf on Wed and Thur to see what it's going to do.

Any one with the moxie to try and put the brakes on "The Club for Growth" has my whole-hearted support. It's vital to bring to task the corruption in throwing money at elections to tip the scale to the side of the hyper-rich, and break the stranglehold the money mongers have on elections.

One citizen, one vote. Minimal propaganda. It's not about listening to Republicans and Democrats debate, and then making your choice anymore...it's far too much about who can throw the most money at the broadcast spin machine is the one who wins.

And thank you for posting the pix, I'm very concerned about the situation for the Texas gulf area...friends there, and cannot contact them today.

Hoping this isn't a deja vu of tracking online Katrina for a week, and then finding there is nothing there for the worst case scenario...for at least a week, and in some places not even there today.

I watched the people being interviewed in line to go into the Superdome, and the reporter said something about some were jokingly calling it the "Superhome." I turned to my friend and said, "In a few days, I fear they'll be calling it "Superhell."

But I was surprised even then at how bad and how long the entire regional situation was allowed to deteriorate.

My prayers are with the gulf coast again.

And, if I were car-less in Galveston right now, I'd begin walking out if I had to, and doing so today.

And pets will be allowed!

...radar look available at NOAA:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.kbyx.shtml

Since they don't get cable television...

:evilgrin:

...listen to NOAA.



-----------

Or, for that fact...the Tropical Storm Risk site:



Prediction shows Crawford possibly getting hit with a Cat 3.

His so-called ranch is a fortress, it will come through without a scratch. That stupidass toy barn with the unused farm equipment that they position the pathetic reporters in front of might take a hit, but the Monkey's Lair will likely come through with nothing more than damage to the bluebell beds....

...now in Houston.

Yez, Babs...these "underprivileged"...soooo much better off.

Anyone know where I can donate to DIRECTLY to help those from NOLA stuck in Houston? Who's doing the most effective work for them? (Red Cross, although I donated there in the first hours of Katrina, isn't my favorite choice by a long shot.)

www.imgh.org/katrina.htm

Not all "faith based"--although some of those groups do good work. IM is a pretty diverse group. They probably started out "Protestant" because Catholic charities have a long history here.

Interfaith Ministries for Greater Houston (IM) is Houston's oldest interfaith-based social service organization. In 1955, the Houston Council of Churches launched IM’s predecessor organization, the Church Welfare Bureau, to organize the Protestant community to minister to those in need

In 1964, the Bureau was reorganized as Protestant Charities, a group that was joined and strengthened by the Jewish community. Officially chartered as Houston Metropolitan Ministries in 1969, IM has been a leading force in bringing together people of all faiths to serve people in need in the greater Houston area.

Renamed Interfaith Ministries for Greater Houston in 1992 to reflect support from increasingly diverse faith traditions, IM works with 10 communities of faith. Those include Baha'I, Buddhist, Christian, Hindu, Jain, Jewish, Muslim, Sikh, Unitarian Universalist and Zoroastrian communities of faith.

This baby is doing just what Katrina did as it begans to come out of the Florida straits. When she clears land, look out.

This is one excellent consolidated hurricane tracking site I have been using for years.

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html#AL18

They pull info from all over, an excellent resource.

That may be the best tracking site I've seen yet.

Might as well be where Katrina hit. It's already flatened, and most people are still evacuated.

This bastard is doing just what Katrina did once it began to clear Florida & FL. straits. Major rotation and eyewall forming, and huge increase in size within last 3 hours.

Rita Projected to Become Cat 4

Aug 20, 2:00PM
Latest Hurr Rita Trac Projections Bad for Galveston/Houston/Crawford and areas west.

Huge increase in Hurricane Rita size and strength projected.
SHIP model shows Rita becoming Cat 4 in 24-36 hours.

nothing stopping it now! It willd be a Cat 4 overnight just like Katrina and worst case become a Cat 5. Hurricanes over the gulf at this time of year become lethal!

stops and spins it into oblivion, then I’ll reconsider whether or not there’s a God… (of course I’m joking...kinda)

There are better more sensible outlets for weather information. Pick something other than a private company that things the national weather service's job is to hand them free of charge all the data they base their entire business on, but that you as a citizen should not be able to access the NWS data in any reasonably useful way (because that's "competition"). Fuck Accu-Weather.

Hurricane Rita
NHC Current Wind Projections

...really no need to keep postin' pix...just FYI. ;-)

She's huge already, and hasn't even made it to the Gulf.

:evilgrin:

If God scolds the oil corporations by killing hundreds of innocent people I have less respect for him than I do for Bush.

I'm in Houston.

Where are you?

...anyone got the water temps for the gulf...a link?

That's what drives a good deal of the intensification.

This is all I could find...looks like Rita is coming out of 90 degrees F water into 85 degrees water further into the gulf.

Anyone have a better gulf water temp site link?

This is a current graphic of the Gulf of Mexico temperatures on Sept. 20, 2005. It looks like the water in the path of Rita ranges from 80-88 degrees.

I couldn't get the image to import, so I'm just putting the link:

marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/show/?file=../regions/gulfmexico/sst_comp/noaa/2005/img/050920.263.comp.lnt.jpg

Rutgers Sea Surface Temperatures:
http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/?product=sst®ion=gulfmexico¬humbs=0

NOAA National Data Bouy Center
Homepage: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

Hurr Rita NDBC Radial Reporting Sites: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=24.1N&lon1=83.2W&dist=250&time=3

Excellent NOAA NDBC Bouy Links Gulf of Mexico Grid Map
http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/surface/interactive.shtml

Katrina knocked out NOAA NDBC site grid south of New Orleans/Florida Panhandle. Luckly they got it back up except Bouy 42003, which is an important one.

I've been using these sites for years. You can learn a boatload about hurricanes watching the NOAA individual bouy reports. It's cool watching the "dirty side" of a hurricane run over a bouy marker and it keeps transmitting the entire time.

2 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

Hurricane Rita: Cat 3
Maximum Sustained Winds (MSW): 115
Wind Gusts To: 140
Moving Towards the West at near 14 MPH.
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 960 MB...28.35 Inches

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles

==Discussion-Annotated==

Rita becomes fifth major hurricane of the 2005 season as it moves Westward away from the Florida Keys

NOAA NWC Winds Max Forecast:
36-48 hours - MWS: 145 mph / Gusts to: 180 mph - Strong CAT 4

Well defined and large hurricane eye formed. Rapid intensification for the next 24 hours appears to be on track. Projection Track Models move landfall more east now, back towards Galveston/Houston on the very powerful/destructive right side of the hurricane.

Rapidly strengthening Hurricane Rita lashed the Florida Keys on Tuesday and headed into the Gulf of Mexico, where forecasters feared it could develop into another blockbuster storm targeting Texas or Louisiana.

Thousands of people were evacuated from the Keys and low-lying areas of northern Cuba. On the far side of the Gulf of Mexico in Texas, Galveston started evacuations and officials made plans to move refugees from Hurricane Katrina who had been housed in the Houston area to Arkansas.

Forecasters said Rita could intensify in the Gulf of Mexico into a Category 4 storm with winds of at least 131 mph. The most likely destination by week's end was Texas, although Louisiana and northern Mexico were possibilities, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Acting FEMA Director R. David Paulison told reporters that the agency has aircraft and buses available to evacuate residents of areas the hurricane might hit. Rescue teams and truckloads of ice, water and prepared meals were being sent to Texas and Florida.

****

Interesting that FEMA has aircraft and buses to evacuate people. I guess FEMA now realizes that local mayors and states cannot handle a major hurricane without federal help. Had they responded the same way when Blanco first filed for a state of emergency maybe there would have been fewer deaths from Hurricane Katrina.

L-

Like a video chain that wants all.

The water temperature in parts of the gulf of mexico is up to 88F. That should provide plenty of energy for this storm to start showing it's muscles.

One thing we do know: Glogal warming is heating the oceans and is responsible for much increased hurrican strengths.

Thanks George.

Hurr Rita Update: 5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

Hurricane Rita: Cat 3
Maximum Sustained Winds (MSW): 120 (I)
Wind Gusts To: 150
Moving Towards the West at near 14 MPH.
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 956 MB...28.23 Inches (D)
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles

Comments: Rita is still over "dirty water" left from Katrina's path, which is actually dampening current eye wall re-development. However once it reached "clean water" west of Louisiana fullblown/highly developed eye is expected.

NOAA NWC Winds Max Forecast:
36-48 hours - MWS: 145 mph / Gusts to: 180 mph - Strong CAT 4

It kind of looks like a bigger version of Charley from last year.

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
Hurricane RITA Discussion

<snip>

THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF RITA GIVES EVERY IMPRESSION THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS CONTINUING. IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF RITA BECAME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HR BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT DUE TO A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OR THE LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT.

Rita turns into Category 4 hurricane
9/21/05 - 7:06 CST

Hurricane Rita grew into a Category 4 storm today, as forecasters said its winds have reached 135 mph as its churns toward landfall later this week on the Gulf Coast.

<snip>

Rita is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, making this the fourth-busiest season since record-keeping started in 1851. The record is 21 tropical storms in 1933. Six hurricanes have hit Florida in the last 13 months.


http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/nation/3363190

======LATEST GOES HURRICANE RITA IMAGE=========

When Katrina was roaring.....someone had posted an auto updating picture of Katrina.....it was like a movie pic if u know what i mean that updated every so often and then showed the beast for the prior hour or so......

Anyone know the link for Rita on the same?

Thanks

Updates every time you refresh. New pic every 30 minutes.

...to watch the animation in real-time (requires you have Java installed) go to this link:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/se6ir.html

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/topstory2/3363238

<snip>

The evacuation is voluntary for now but will become mandatory for residents living in storm surge zones and mobile homes starting at 6 p.m. today.

10 AM CST WED SEP 21 2005

Hurricane Rita: Cat 4
Maximum Sustained Winds (MSW): 140 (I)
Wind Gusts To: 175
Moving Towards the West at near 13 MPH. (D)
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 944 MB...27.88 Inches (D)
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles

RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE, WITH A LARGE DROP IN PRESSURE, AND MAJOR EYEWALL FORMATION.

Houston Mayor calls for evacuations from storm Rita
21 Sep 2005 15:25:06 GMT

Source: Reuters
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N21478331.htm

HOUSTON, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Houston Mayor Bill White on Wednesday called for residents in low-lying, flood-prone areas of the city to evacuate beginning on Thursday in anticipation of Hurricane Rita, which is approaching across the Gulf of Mexico.

Emergency officials said evacuation in those areas would mean as many as 1 million people may attempt to leave. The hurricane is expected to make landfall in the Galveston area, just to the southeast of Houston, the scene of America's worst hurricane disaster in 1900, when at least 8,000 people died.

<snip>

If Rita makes landfall where expected it could cause significant flooding in areas up to 35 miles inland when the anticipated storm surge rushes through Galveston Bay and along the Houston Ship Channel, emergency officials said.

White urged those who did not have the means to evacuate themselves to arrange with friends or neighbors to get out. He said if that was not possible, people should contact emergency numbers to get help from the authorities. But he warned: "There will not be enough government vehicles to go and evacuate people in all the areas."

..in next 8 hours per NOAA NHC.

Continued Huge Drops in Pressure and Massive Expansion of Hurricane

09.21.05
----------
10:00 am Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 944 MB...27.88 Inches (D)
Noon Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 934 MB...27.58 Inches (D)
1:00 pm Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 923 MB...27.26 Inches (D)

...around King Ranch...it's not that heavily populated and it's far enough down the coast to spare the cities the worst of the effects.

Pack up granny, the kids and all the critters then head for the hills



http://www.sitcomsonline.com/thebeverlyhillbillies.html

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 165 MPH.
GUST TO: 195

2:55 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005
Full NOAA NHC Report at 4:00 CDT

Sonofabitch...we're getting hit with the outer bands already...you can taste the salt moisture in the air...

All's I can say is...I'm thanking the Gods this one's staying outta this area...

2:00AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

Hurricane Rita: Cat 5
Maximum Sustained Winds: 175
Wind Gusts To: 215
Moving Towards the West at near 9 MPH.
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure: 898 MB - 26.52 Inches (I)
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the Center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.

Comments:
Good News: This is the first report in the last 12 hours that Rita as not intensified. It's still a massive hurricane! Reminds me of the very deadly Hurricane Mitch in 1998.
Bad News: Large change in track model projections, moves Rita landfall again to the east with Galveston/Houston a dead-on direct hit. The forecast tracks model has gotten crazy again with Rita’s recent wobble and changes in eastern upper level steering currents.
Good News: Solid model projections agreement that Rita will decrease in strength before landfall.
Bad News: Rita will have to decrease significantly in strength to keep the west end of Galveston Co., where all the new home development is, (including my boss & friends) from getting totally wiped off the map. Unlike “old” Galveston, they have no seawall protection.

Good News: My boss and his convoy of friends/other Galveston beach homeowners are getting ready to leave Galveston and head home to Dallas. I laid out a good route plan for them using Transtar to avoid having to go through Houston, where even at 2:00 am in the morning, feeder traffic North out of Houston is extremely heavy.

Many Comsat reports of Gas stations with no gas, and grocery stores completely empty/sold out in inner and North Houston. Thursday daylight hours in Houston will be living hell with people trying to get out of harms way

---------------
Note: Check out the GFS (AVN) projection track. It shows Rita circling back and nailing Gal/Hou a second time. Wild

Latest Hurricane Rita Images:

180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA.

Wave Heights now 35 feet

Is God talking to George again?