STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 4 October

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 90.06 Change -0.07 (-0.08%)

Dollar Move Is Almost Done

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3929&Itemid=39

Dollar began showing saddle signs of move exhaustion despite recent price action which seen the dollar push most majors toward the 2005 levels, and in case of the Japanese yen new 2005 key levels. However even though the dollar manages to break below the 1.1876 against the euro, a retrace is in order for a new trend to take the dollar to the levels not seen in few years, given the overall feel of the market, this analyst and a trader believes that yesterdays sharp move had an “artificial flavor” to it, its lacked the natural movement of the market, it was forced and it did not flow as the natural price action should.

<snip>

EUR/USD – Euro bulls once again fell under the unrelenting onslaught launched by the dollar longs as the pair fell through the psychologically important 1.2000 figure. As the price action remains in the vicinity of the 2005 Low, a move below the 1.1876, will most likely see the greenback longs push the pair toward the next major level at 1.1760, a 2004 Low. A further break in the single currency defenses will most likely see the pair test 1.1633, a level marked by the June 4, 2003 daily low, thus confirming a dollar dominated trend. However given the latest move to the downside raised a flag of caution, as a failure to break to the downside might signal a retrace. Indicators are favoring the dollar bulls with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while extremely oversold Stochastic adds to a trending outlook as most prolonged moves to the downside happened after oscillators became oversold.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen longs continued to retreat, with the latest move to the upside seeing the greenback longs breaching the 114.00 handle, thus setting their sights on the 115.00 figure. As dollar longs push their way toward 115.00, the next move to the upside will most likely see the pair head toward the Japanese yen defenses around 114.92, a 2004 high. A break above the 114.92 will most likely see the dollar longs push the pair above the psychologically important 115.00 handle and take on the yen defenses around 115.76, a level marked by the September 4, 2003, with further advance by the dollar bulls will most likely seeing the vanguard greenback longs take on the Japanese yen defenses around 116.67, a level marked by the July 15, 2003 daily high. Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while overbought Stochastic most likely acts as a confirmation for the possible trend.

...more...

Dollar Surges Ahead as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Rise

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3923&Itemid=39

The dollar’s unstoppable rally continued today, blasting past 1.20 and then spending most of the US session testing the resolve of euro bulls trying to defend the 1.1900 level. To the surprise of many, most of the September data that we have seen thus far suggests that Hurricane Katrina has had a limited impact on the economy. The national manufacturing index accelerated from 53.6 in August to 59.4 in September, which follows Friday’s advance in the Chicago PMI survey. Like the Chicago report, the improvement in the national index was broad based, with acceleration even in the employment component, which means that it would be difficult for anyone to try to pinpoint some sort of weakness in the report. Additionally, we also saw a record high in construction spending for the month of August. Even though the number was pre-Katrina, with all of the rebuilding efforts following the hurricane, construction spending could be even higher in the month of September. Right now, momentum and rate hike expectations is behind the dollar’s rally. Dollar bears are questioning their positioning harder with each passing day while dollar bulls continue to charge on forward. Throughout last week, Federal Reserve officials have held onto their hawkish views and spent most of their time downplaying the significance of Katrina and it seems that the market really believes them. Fed fund futures have been moving around quite a bit lately and are currently pricing in a high probability of quarter point moves in both November and December. In fact, there is even a growing possibility for a move to 4.50% early next year. Of course, these expectations can change just as rapidly later on as they have over the past few weeks so it will be interesting to see how the market reacts to this Friday’s non-farm payrolls release.

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Hiya Ozy! Glad all is well!

:hi:

Where could this push possibly be coming from?

Do you think Greenscam is long on the dollar? Or is Japan concerned about holiday sales for their products?

here's a bit more from Bloomberg:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aPonSru3TSzg&refer=home

excerpt:

The dollar's gain may be limited after a technical indicator signaled the currency may be poised to reverse course.

The dollar's 14-day relative strength index to the euro was 29.86, signaling its advance may be excessive. A level above 70 or below 30 may signal a change in direction. Against the yen, the dollar had a reading of 71.34.

``I would not be surprised to see the dollar facing an adjustment after its rapid rise against the yen and the euro,'' said Keizo Tanaka, a trading manager in Tokyo at Resona Bank Ltd. ``Dollar buying gained much more momentum than expected.''

...more...

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=47213

In his recent speech, Chairman Greenspan took a curious turn, one that appears to have gone relatively unnoticed, but may be critical to understand the current marching orders at the Fed. Greenspan noted:

“Relying on policymakers to perceive when speculative asset bubbles have developed and then to implement timely policies to address successfully these misalignments in asset prices is simply not realistic. As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) transcripts of the mid-1990s duly note, we at the Fed were uncomfortable with a stock market that appeared as early as 1996 to disconnect from its moorings.

Yet the significant monetary tightening of 1994 did not prevent what must by then have been the beginnings of the bubble of the 1990s. And equity prices continued to rise during the tightening of policy between mid-1999 and May 2000. Indeed, the equity market's ability to withstand periods of tightening arguably reinforced the bull market's momentum. The FOMC knew that tools were available to choke off the stock market boom, but those tools would only have been effective if they undermined market participants' confidence in future stability. Market participants, however, read the resilience of the economy and stock prices in the face of monetary tightening as an indication of undiscounted market strength.

By the late 1990s, it appeared to us that very aggressive action would have been required to counteract the euphoria that developed in the wake of extraordinary gains in productivity growth spawned by technological change. In short, we would have needed to risk precipitating a significant recession, with unknown consequences. The alternative was to wait for the eventual exhaustion of the forces of boom. We concluded that the latter course was by far the safer. Whether that judgment continues to hold up through time has yet to be determined.”

Like the Chairman’s parting speech at Jackson Hole last month, there are some important revelations here. While maintaining the party line that you don’t want to rely on central bankers to manage asset bubbles, he drops his prior strong stance that central bankers cannot identify asset bubbles in advance, and claims, correctly as I documented back in 1999 and 2000, that the Fed as early as the mid ‘90s identified a widening discrepancy between equity prices and equity fundamentals – aka, a bubble.

more...

gulp!

Doesn't that sort of look like ...pot....kettle...???

Talk about projection!!

:kick:

I was about to delete my SMW thread just as I sat down again right now. Nonetheless, thank you thank you thank you for keeping an eye out! :toast:

Ozy :hi:

:hi:

(check your PM)

:hug:

EASY COME, EASY GO

This past week saw already unsettling rhetoric between the U.S. and Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez ‘kick it up a couple notches,’ so to speak, when it was revealed on Friday, Sept. 30 – that Venezuela had moved its central bank foreign reserves out of U.S. banks, liquidating its holdings in U.S. Treasury securities – moving the proceeds to Europe.

"We've had to move the international reserves from U.S. banks because of the threats from the U.S.,” Chavez said during televised remarks from a South American summit in Brazil.

Anyone ever wonder what the Venezuelans might be purchasing with those proceeds?

While it’s perhaps somewhat difficult to view this development in a positive light – it did shed some light on what might have been motivating the Fed’s aggressive actions ‘behind the curtain’ where their Open Market Operations are concerned:



The chart above depicts changes to the aggregate monetary balances in the financial system resulting from Fed Open Market Operations from Sept. 19/05 thru to Friday, Sept 30/05. The extent of the bloating of liquidity in the financial system is perhaps better appreciated when viewed in the context of this graph below:



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It sure looks to me that if Venezuela truly was invested in U.S. obligations to the tune of 20 billion – OPEC totals in the TIC data above should have perhaps been greater than the 53ish billion in the table above. After all, OPEC is a ten-country club now – isn’t it?

more...

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

10:00am 10/04/05 U.S. AUG. NONDURABLE GOODS ORDERS UP 1.6%

10:00am 10/04/05 U.S. AUG. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS REVISED UP 3.4% VS. 3.3%

10:00am 10/04/05 U.S. AUG. INVENTORY-SHIPMENT RATIO RECORD LOW 1.18

10:00am 10/04/05 U.S. AUG. FACTORY INVENTORIES FALL 0.1%

10:00am 10/04/05 U.S. AUG. CORE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS UP 3.1%

10:00am 10/04/05 U.S. AUG. FACTORY SHIPMENTS UP 1.7%

10:00am 10/04/05 U.S. AUG. FACTORY ORDERS RISE 2.5% VS. 2.0% EXPECTED

(note: this is pre-Katrina)

on edit:

Factory orders increase 2.5% in Aug.
Inventories fall 2nd month in a row, unfilled orders rise 1.6%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0A78FF29%2D5453%2D454F%2DA396%2D204CD8603BEC%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Orders for new U.S.-made goods increased 2.5% in August, reversing an identical decline in July, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.

Strong demand for durable goods, such as metals and electrical equipment, propelled the increase in new orders.

Orders for durable goods rose 3.4%, revised from last week's preliminary estimate of 3.3%. Orders and shipments for nondurable goods rose 1.6%, led by a nearly 20% rise in tobacco and a 4.6% increase in petroleum.

The increase was slightly stronger than the 2% gain expected by economists polled by MarketWatch. However, a downward revision to July orders left the total close to expectations. July orders were revised to a 2.5% decline from a 1.9% drop reported earlier.

...more...

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-03T214038Z_01_DIT366097_RTRUKOC_0_US-CRIME-KOZLOWSKI.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - An appellate judge denied requests on Monday by jailed former Tyco International Ltd. (TYC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) chief Dennis Kozlowski and co-defendant Mark Swartz that they be freed on bail pending appeal of their convictions for stealing more than $150 million from the company.

In a one-page court document, Justice Angela Mazzarelli of the Appellate Division in New York denied their motion without comment. The judge had asked prosecutors to file papers last month on defense attorneys' request for bail.

"It's very, very sad, so disappointing. Even (ex-WorldCom chief) Bernie Ebbers, who got 25 years, is out pending appeal. We just have to now concentrate on the appeal," said Charles Stillman, lawyer for Swartz.

:nopity:

<snip>

Former Tyco CEO Kozlowski, 58, and former Chief Financial Officer Swartz, 45, were each sentenced to 8-1/3 to 25 years in prison and ordered to pay millions of dollars in fines and restitution.

The men, who are currently undergoing evaluation at the Downstate Correctional Facility in Fishkill, New York, were found guilty in June of stealing more than $150 million from the manufacturing conglomerate, part of a wave of recent corporate fraud prosecutions in the United States.

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Cry me a river.

Oh no!

Ben Sargent -- the caricaturist -- just set my therapy back months!

Months, I tell you!

How could he?

:)

--p!

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&cid=ferguson&sid=aDAxgWdjtRBw

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The indictment last week of one of Washington's most prominent and powerful Republicans, House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, is bad news for the Republican Party.

Now wait: Before I'm drowned out by the collective roar of ``Well, duh,'' I should quickly add that it's not such great news for Democrats, either. Which means that, in the long run, it might not be such bad news for Republicans.

Politics is often confusing in this way -- which is why political pundits are so indispensable to the healthy functioning of this noble experiment we call democracy. First consider the Republicans. For more than a year, as they grow increasingly contented with their monopoly control of the executive and legislative branches, a vague odor of corruption has gathered around them.

There is, for starters, the still-unfolding story of Jack Abramoff, a veteran conservative activist-turned-lobbyist and a friend of DeLay.

The tale of Abramoff's self-dealing includes, among much else, more than $60 million in dubious lobbying fees he bled from casino- owning Indian tribes. The story has now expanded to involve such Republican stalwarts as Ralph Reed, former executive director of the Christian Coalition, and Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform.

Ten days before DeLay's indictment, a high-ranking official in the White House Office of Management and Budget, a former Norquist colleague named David Safavian, was arrested for obstruction of justice in the investigation of Abramoff.

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Hi Pigwidgeon! This commentary should help those therapy bills :hi:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B937211A9%2DD017%2D4699%2DBD3D%2DE9491C12B570%7D&siteid=mktw

Nowadays, it seems, prices on just about everything you buy are going up. But unlike past episodes of rising inflation, today's higher price tags increasingly include a word that is fast becoming ubiquitous - surcharge.

One of the first to do this was your local electric company. For years, these public utilities have been allowed to pass along the higher cost of the fuel (usually oil or natural gas) they use to produce electricity.

They simply added a fuel surcharge to your bill.

Today, with prices of crude oil and natural gas skyrocketing (see my last two columns here and here), electric companies are making liberal use of surcharges. Indeed, some electric companies are tacking a surcharge onto their existing surcharge.

But they're not the only ones. You name the product or service and more and more of the folks who provide them these days are adding a fuel surcharge to their price.

Order a pizza? Chances are there's a fuel surcharge added to the total. Same goes for cab and limo rides, airline fares, deliverers of all kinds of goods, movers, ferry operators - and, in some cases, the fuel oil companies themselves.

<snip>

The way things are going, it's only a matter of time before your state or local government adds a fuel surcharge to your tax bill. And if this doesn't provoke another Boston Tea Party, expect Washington to do the same; after all, there's that humongous budget deficit that must be addressed.

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Gotta laugh out loud for one of the lines in this commentary:

... the Fed wants to nip this willingness to accept higher prices in the bud - before heightened inflation expectations becomes embedded in the country's mindset.

:rofl:

Willingness to accept higher prices?????

:rofl:

I can just imagine the confrontations now:

Driver: I am unwilling to accept this higher price!

Gas Station Attendant: Walk then you stupid XOIIXX!!!

vitamins and fine chemicals :wow:

LONDON - Crude oil prices slipped below $65 a barrel Tuesday after the U.S. government indicated it might release emergency stockpiles of heating oil to combat supply disruptions from recent hurricanes.

Llight, sweet crude for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 70 cents to $64.77 in electronic trading by midday in London. November Brent futures dropped 86 cents to $61.94 a barrel on London's International Petroleum Exchange.

U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said Monday that the government was "prepared to do what is necessary with strategic reserves," when asked about the northeast emergency heating oil supply.

Bodman's comments followed earlier indications from the Paris-based International Energy Agency that the group also was willing to consider releasing additional petroleum supplies.

more

:donut: We have one refinery up and running and we have 11 more to go. Don't know about the rig count yet. I don't understand the drop, unless the reserves are starting to show up. We don't have alot of refineries in this country and they were producing almost at full capacity. I would still plan on a cold, expensive winter. Am I being paranoid to think the prices will stay down until the elections then spike up? Well, Happy hunting, and watch out for the bears.

but those large rigs are an awesome feat of engineering and a site to behold. They have the best fishing and diving around them. I always jump at the chance to see one.

2:12pm 10/04/05 90% DAILY GULF OIL OUTPUT OFFLINE VS 93% MON: MMS

2:12pm 10/04/05 72% DAILY NATURAL GAS OUTPUT OFFLINE VS 75% MON: MMS

10:08am 10/04/05 NOV CRUDE DROPS $1.42 TO $64.05/BRL IN EARLY NY DEALINGS

2:54pm 10/04/05 NOV CRUDE CLOSES AT A MORE THAN TWO-WEEK LOW UNDER $64/BRL

2:54pm 10/04/05 NOV CRUDE CLOSES AT $63.90/BRL, DOWN $1.57, OR 2.4%

2:54pm 10/04/05 NOV NATURAL GAS AT FRESH CLOSING HIGH OF $14.224/MLN BTUS

2:54pm 10/04/05 NOV NATURAL GAS CLOSES UP 20.7C, OR 1.5%, FOR THE SESSION

7:41am 10/04/05 NOV NATGAS DOWN 5.20C AT $13.97 PER MILLION BTUS

7:42am 10/04/05 NOV UNLEADED GASOLINE DOWN 2.35C AT $2.0387/GALLON

7:42am 10/04/05 NOV HEATING OIL DOWN 2.61C AT $2.0548/GALLON

7:41am 10/04/05 NOV CRUDE DOWN 77C AT $64.70 A BARREL

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures rose on Tuesday, indicating a higher open, as oil prices declined, easing concerns about higher energy costs on consumer spending.

-cut-

"The drop in oil prices is definitely positive for stocks," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Asset Management in Bedford Hills, New York. "It takes some of the pressure off the markets, even if it is only for a short period of time."

S&P 500 futures were up 1.9 points, above their fair value, a mathematical formula that evaluates their pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.

Dow Jones industrial average futures were up 13 points, while Nasdaq 100 were up 1 point.

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NEW YORK – Turn the thermostat down 2 degrees this winter.

That's not former President Jimmy Carter speaking but the natural-gas industry. Although officials expect to have adequate supplies of gas through the winter, they caution that Americans will pay substantially more for it. Prices are expected to hit somewhere between $8 and $11 per thousand cubic feet, up from $6 to $7 last year.

For the average consumer who uses gas to heat, that could mean a winter heating bill of $1,129 - or 52 percent higher than last year, according to estimates by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). On the spot market, natural-gas prices are hitting historic highs.

"We think it's going to be a pretty tight market," says Dave Costello, an energy analyst at EIA in Washington. "A lot depends on how fast production gets back on line."

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Keeping households and business supplied this winter will require an increase of imports from Canada (up 8 percent) and a rise in liquefied natural-gas deliveries (up 26 percent). US supplies are expected to remain flat, assuming that the Gulf Coast production comes back onstream within the next month.

more...

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1003/p02s01-usec.html

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-04T114641Z_01_N04648190_RTRIDST_0_UTILITIES-WESTAR.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Westar Energy Inc. (WR.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Tuesday said a proposal by Kansas regulators would effectively cut the company's rates and hurt its financial condition and results.

The warning came in a filing with securities regulators a day after Westar gave testimony to the Kansas Corporation Commission on the rate dispute.

The company filed for a rate increase of $84.1 million in May. It says a proposal by the commission's staff and other intervenors would actually cut its rates by about $66 million.

The dispute is one of many in jurisdictions across the country pending between regulators and utilities seeking higher rates in the face of growing expenses. Two utilities operating in Florida recently accepted rate case settlements that essentially gave them no rate increase after intervention by the state's attorney general.

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Maybe they need to check out DeLay's pocket for some money :evilgrin:

http://www.firedupmissouri.com/westarcorruptiontriangle

AUSTIN, Texas -- A Kansas energy company said it donated $25,000 so that it could attend a golf outing with U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay to try to influence pending energy legislation.

The admission from Topeka, Kan.-based Westar Energy marks the first time a company has publicly admitted to donating to DeLay's political action committee in exchange for a meeting and possible legislative help.

<snip>

Amid a federal probe of Westar Energy Inc., key Republicans dropped support for a special regulatory exemption for the troubled Kansas utility company. The withdrawal of support virtually ensures the break will not survive.

The company wanted the one-of-a-kind exemption inserted in a wide-ranging energy bill. It was criticized as the kind of loophole that contributed to the failure of Enron Corp.

Westar, the biggest electric utility in Kansas, is seeking an exemption that would free it from new oversight by the Securities and Exchange Commission, if Congress repeals the 1935 Public Utility Holding Company Act. SEC oversight under the Investment Company Act, which regulates mutual funds, would kick in if Westar splits up its operations, which also include burglar alarm systems and an Oklahoma-based natural gas company.

House Republicans were pushing the provision at the request of two Missourians, GOP Reps. Sam Graves and Roy Blunt. But Graves and Blunt withdrew their backing Monday, days after the company disclosed it is under federal investigation.

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(Westar) Firm Fined for Channeling Donations to GOP

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/18/AR2005081801989.html

The Federal Election Commission yesterday fined Westar Energy Inc., two former corporate officers and the firm's lobbyist a total of $40,500 for their roles in channeling contributions to House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (Tex.) and other Republicans.

Westar, a Kansas energy company, was fined $20,000; it admitted in a conciliation agreement that it violated campaign laws by engaging "on two separate occasions in the practice of facilitating corporate contributions to candidates for federal office." Corporations are barred from contributing to federal campaigns.

<snip>

But DeLay was admonished in connection with the case for creating the "improper appearance" that Westar might receive special access or treatment when he attended the company's golf fundraiser in June 2002, according to the House ethics committee.

At the time, energy legislation critically important to the company was about to go to a House-Senate conference committee. Language was inserted protecting Westar from financial damage that might be caused by other provisions of the bill.

Stuart Roy, then DeLay's spokesman, acknowledged that DeLay met with Westar representatives but said that "we have no control over any fantasies they might have about what they might get for a campaign contribution." The language was withdrawn from the bill after disclosures that the firm was under grand jury investigation.

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that they are going to the PUC (public utility comission) and asking for a rate hike of 14% in Oct and another rate increase in Jan. Center Point, the natural gas co. states that costs have gone up 98% since July and are asking for an 11% increase (they got one earlier). My question is, if we have so many rigs and refineries out, why the price per barrell is going down. I am so glad Meanspin is keeping inflation in check.:spank:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=arwka94mwsEU&refer=us

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil decline to its lowest in almost a week on signs that supplies will be adequate to meet demand from U.S. refiners seeking to maximize fuel output for the annual peak in consumption this quarter.

``The market is concerned that there's too much crude at the moment,'' said Sam Tilley, an analyst with Sucden U.K. Ltd., a London broker. ``There's evidence that high prices of gasoline have crimped demand.''

U.S. oil output in the Gulf of Mexico started recovering this week, reaching about 7 percent of normal levels yesterday, after Hurricane Rita halted it last week. Crude from emergency reserves in the U.S. and other members of the International Energy Agency is reaching markets. U.S. gasoline demand fell 2.8 percent in the four weeks ended Sept. 23 from a year earlier.

snip>

About 18 percent of U.S. refining capacity remains shut after hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged processing plants or left them without power. In France, workers at Total SA's Normandy refinery, which halted production last week, yesterday voted to extend a two-week strike until Oct. 7. A port strike in Marseille is slowing fuel output from BP Plc's Lavera plant.

``All these bullish news have come out without pushing the market up,'' Sucden's Tilley said. ``That suggests we've seen the top in the short term.''

OPEC Shipments

Gasoline futures fell 1.2 percent to $2.0370 a gallon on Nymex. They reached a record $2.92 at the end of August, the week Katrina struck.

Funny, gas in my neck of the woods is still at 3.12. They were raising it daily but it's been 3.12 and holding since last Thursday.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-gas4oct04,1,1721089.story?coll=la-headlines-business

snip>

A dozen refineries in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi remained shut down Monday, with only one — an Exxon plant in Beaumont, Texas — that appeared ready for a quick return to full production. Together, they represent nearly 20% of the nation's ability to turn oil into refined products. In addition, some pipelines carrying fuel to the Midwest and the Southeast were operating at only partial capacity.

That supply squeeze, coming as farmers swing into the fall harvest, brought a nearly 35 cent jump from the previous week in the average U.S. price of diesel to $3.144 a gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration's weekly survey of gasoline stations. That shattered the diesel record of $2.898 a gallon set over the Labor Day weekend. California diesel stood at $3.262 a gallon, up slightly from its own Labor Day record of $3.25.

snip>

If the production numbers don't improve soon, "people will have to get used to higher prices for a while," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst for Alaron Trading Corp. "It's not just the damage, it's how quickly you can fix it. How many people and helicopters and repair equipment can you have when everyone is trying to get the same repair equipment at the same time? It gets difficult."

snip>

"Rita hit 7% of the U.S. refinery capacity. If it had hit 13%, gas prices probably would have been at $4 or $5 a gallon. That is the good news," Flynn said. "The bad news is you may have to pay $3."

more...

10:10am 10/04/05 NOV NATURAL GAS FALLS 13.7C, OR 1%, TO $13.89/MLN BTUS

10:10am 10/04/05 NOV HEATING OIL DOWN 2.9% AT $2.0225/GAL

10:10am 10/04/05 NOV UNLEADED GAS DOWN 4% AT $1.98/GAL

10:08am 10/04/05 NOV CRUDE DROPS $1.42 TO $64.05/BRL IN EARLY NY DEALINGS

10:09am 10/04/05 NOV CRUDE TRADES AT LOWEST LEVEL IN OVER A WEEK

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B817B98C7-0723-408B-B63C-6A838F7273C8%7D&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- November crude is down $1.62, or 2.5%, at $63.85 a barrel, trading at its lowest level in over a week. Other energy futures followed suit, with November heating oil down 2.8% at $2.0225 a gallon and November unleaded gasoline down 4% at $1.98 a gallon. November natural gas was at $13.84 per million British thermal units, down 1.2%. "The worst has occurred, what more can happen?" said Michael Fitzpatrick, an analyst at Fimat USA. "The effect has been priced in, and speculative interests are beginning to cash out of positions."

Gougers leaving the playing field :rofl:

11:34am 10/04/05 NOV CRUDE DROPS $2.47, OR 3.8%, TO $63/BRL IN NY

11:34am 10/04/05 NOV HEATING OIL DOWN 4.3%; NOV UNLEADED GAS DOWN 4.7%

11:34am 10/04/05 NOV NATURAL GAS DOWN 1.1% AT $13.87/MLN BTUS

8:25am 10/04/05 PRESIDENT BUSH TO HOLD PRESS CONFERENCE FOR 10:30 A.M. ET

I think it should be a pig in a business suit myself. :shrug:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38629.5836824421-844717683&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The 10-year Treasury note pared gains following comments from Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher that were largely in keeping with the hawkish leanings of other Fed speeches. Fisher said inflation is at the upper end of the Fed's tolerance zone and shows little inclination to move lower. He said that the economy was exhibiting signs of moving into a phase of slower growth but its performance remained clouded by the lingering impact of the hurricanes. "Overall, the remarks are mixed to hawkish, though the bond market remains in a pre-payrolls trance," said analysts at Action Economics. The 10-year note was up 1/32 at 98 30/32, yielding ($TNX) a little changed 4.39%.

1:59pm 10/04/05 FED'S FISHER SEES NO SIGN OF SLOWDOWN IN INFLATION

1:56pm 10/04/05 FISHER: FED MUST RAISE RATES TO AVOID MONETIZING DEFICITS

1:54pm 10/04/05 FED'S FISHER SEES SIGNS OF ECONOMIC SLOWING

1:55pm 10/04/05 FISHER: INFLATION AT TOP OF FED'S COMFORT ZONE

only process the big trees. Now that all the big trees are gone, it is difficult to make a profit with these old mills. Check to see if there are new paper mills going up in Mexico. That's the usual lumber company trick.

look at the early land sat photos and look at the rain forest of the Amazon and Indonesia and look at the most recent photos---it will break your heart. Even the astronauts have commented on it.

9:31
Dow 10,546.37 +10.89 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,157.77 +2.34 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 1,227.95 +1.25 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 43.67 -0.19 (-0.43%)
NYSE Volume 18,671,000
Nasdaq Volume 36,293,000

Dow 10,535.32 -0.16 (-0.00%)
Nasdaq 2,154.22 -1.21 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,226.54 -0.16 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.363 -0.23 (-0.52%)

NYSE Volume 166,769,000
Nasdaq Volume 147,600,000

adding blather on edit:

9:45AM: As expected, the equity market opens in subdued fashion. Price declines across the energy complex, however, may serve as an early cue for traders within a market that remains understandably nervous in Katrina's wake amid possible inflation concerns and perhaps some uncertainty heading into the imminent Q3 earnings season... While there is little market-moving news out this morning and as investors await Friday's employment report, today's docket, as a reminder, offers factory sales for Aug. (consensus 2.0%) which will be released at the top of the hour...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38629.4072045949-844691652&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Shares of U.S. home-building stocks traded lower in early dealings Tuesday after a New York Times article detailed the large amounts of insider selling going on at the companies recently. Shares of Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) lost 2.7% to $42.46, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV) shed 2.3% to $50.36, KB Home (KBH) was down 1.9% to $71.87 and Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM) lost 1.5% to $42.52. In the NY Times story, some analysts said the hefty insider sales are a sign of a potential downturn, while company executives countered they are simply diversifying their portfolios to reduce risk.

"simply diversifying their portfolios" :rofl:

9:55am 10/04/05 DEC GOLD CLIMBS $2.20 TO $471.50/OZ IN MORNING NY TRADE

Dow 10,529.64 -5.84 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,152.11 -3.32 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 1,225.36 -1.34 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.364 -0.22 (-0.50%)

NYSE Volume 323,090,000
Nasdaq Volume 291,948,000

adding blather on edit:

10:05AM: On account of the pressure levied by the Energy sector, which is off 1.2%, and the Tech sector, down 0.6%, the indices have each recently slipped into the red...

While sell-offs in crude oil, gasoline, and natural gas have spurred some additional profit taking across Energy, hardware's 2.1% slide and Texas Instrument's (TXN 33.00 -0.88) 2.6% decline have dragged Technology underwater. Although Goldman Sachs upgraded their hardware coverage group to Attractive from Neutral, Lexmark's (LXK 45.53 -15.41) plummet, due to its slashed Q3 earnings forecast, weighs on the space. The firm, at the same time, downgraded TXN to Underperform from In-Line, sending a tremor through the chip group that Deutsche Securities' upgrade on Linear Technology (LLTC 37.68 +0.09) may be helping minimize.

otherwise we would see more red ink.

so the numbers are not reflecting *Co's latest spin and lies.

11:17am 10/04/05 BUSH: NEW FED CHIEF MUST BE INDEPENDENT FROM POLITICS

This one is definitely a LIE
11:18am 10/04/05 BUSH: HASN'T SEEN ANY NAMES YET IN SEARCH FOR NEW FED CHIEF

11:17am 10/04/05 BUSH: SEARCH ONGOING FOR GREENSPAN REPLACEMENT

11:08am 10/04/05 BUSH SAYS CONCERNED WITH POSSIBLE OUTBREAK OF AVIAN FLU

11:04am 10/04/05 BUSH: 'PLENTY' OF POLITICAL CAPITAL LEFT TO PASS AGENDA

10:51am 10/04/05 BUSH SEES 'DIMINISHED APPETITE' FOR SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM

10:41am 10/04/05 BUSH: UP TO DEMOCRATS IF THERE WILL BE FIGHT OVER MIERS PICK

10:37am 10/04/05 BUSH: MIERS MOST QUALIFIED CANDIDATE FOR SUPREME COURT

10:35am 10/04/05 BUSH: U.S. NEEDS TO BUILD MORE REFINING CAPACITY

10:36am 10/04/05 BUSH TO SEEK LEGISLATION TO ENCOURAGE REFINERY CONSTRUCTION

10:34am 10/04/05 BUSH: CONGRESS MUST CUT SPENDING TO PAY FOR HURRICANE RELIEF

10:33am 10/04/05 BUSH PLEASED WITH CONGRESS REACTION TO COURT PICK MIERS

Bush presses Congress on spending, refineries

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38629.4458817824-844697392&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Bush on Tuesday urged Congress to expand planned cuts to entitlement spending programs and to look for "real cuts in non-security spending" to help offset the costs of rebuilding the Gulf Coast in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. In a news conference, Bush also called for legislation to encourage the construction of new oil refineries.

(adding line items as they come in)

11:04am 10/04/05 BUSH: 'PLENTY' OF POLITICAL CAPITAL LEFT TO PASS AGENDA

GACK!!!!!!

I am the Queen of all Left Handed Monkeys.

Political capital. Yeah, right. :eyes:

The sinister monkeys from Oz.(sorry couldn't resist). Yeh that political capital he's throwing around must be what fell out of DeLay's pocket. Wonder how they are going to get the money from K St. to the Capital since DeLay will be scrutinized and pretty much out of the loop.


edited because of my crappy typing

Dow 10,563.02 +27.54 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq 2,158.80 +3.37 (+0.16%)
S&P 500 1,229.20 +2.50 (+0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.358 -0.28 (-0.64%)

NYSE Volume 401,645,000
Nasdaq Volume 366,233,000

Dow 10,546.53 +11.05 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,158.35 +2.92 (+0.14%)
S&P 500 1,227.68 +0.98 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.362 -0.24 (-0.55%)

NYSE Volume 725,871,000
Nasdaq Volume 639,614,000

11:00AM: Crude's (-$1.77 $63.70 2.8% decline continues to serve as one of the market's strongest crutches and enable the indices to endge slightly higher. With gasoline (-$0.08 $1.99) dropping 3.9% today, retailers have jumped 0.5%, working to pare a -5.2 year-to-date decline, and broad-based buying interest within the Consumer Discretionary sector has helped counter the effect of homebuilder' 1.9% plunge. After the New York Times discussed slowing within the housing market and highlighted record-pace insider selling within the space, the likes of DR Horton (DHI 35.66 -1.35), Centex (CTX 63.72 -1.77), and KB Homes (KBH 71.27 -1.99) all languish... Separately, Aug. factory orders rose 2.5% - stronger than the expected 2.0% rise due to a modest upward revision to durables orders (to +3.4% from +3.3%) and stronger than expected nondurables orders (+1.6%). While the data reflects a strong pre-Katrina economy, the market has largely overlooked it...NYSE Adv/Dec 1515/1422, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1453/1248

10:30AM: The major averages clear the flat line, largely on the back of Healthcare's session-leading 1.2% gain...

Enjoying some broad-based buying activity and benefiting from advances in 90% of its constituents, the sector has erased the 0.8% loss it chalked yesterday. Strength in pharmaceuticals (+1.1%), within which Abbott Labs' (ABT) 2.7% jump is the most notable, as well as in HMOs (i.e., UNH, WLP, CAH) and healthcare equipment (i.e., BSX, MDT), which are up 1.7% and 1.6%, respectively, are the sector's strongest drivers. For its part, Abbott Labs announced that it's received FDA approval to market its rheumatoid arthritis drug Humira for first-line treatment. The stock has been further bolstered by an upgrade at SG Cowen...NYSE Adv/Dec 1507/1327, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1447/1135

10:05AM : On account of the pressure levied by the Energy sector, which is off 1.2%, and the Tech sector, down 0.6%, the indices have each recently slipped into the red...

While sell-offs in crude oil, gasoline, and natural gas have spurred some additional profit taking across Energy, hardware's 2.1% slide and Texas Instrument's (TXN 33.00 -0.88) 2.6% decline have dragged Technology underwater. Although Goldman Sachs upgraded their hardware coverage group to Attractive from Neutral, Lexmark's (LXK 45.53 -15.41) plummet, due to its slashed Q3 earnings forecast, weighs on the space. The firm, at the same time, downgraded TXN to Underperform from In-Line, sending a tremor through the chip group that Deutsche Securities' upgrade on Linear Technology (LLTC 37.68 +0.09) may be helping minimize.

Dow 10,554.54 +19.06 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,163.00 +7.57 (+0.35%)
S&P 500 1,228.25 +1.55 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 43.61 -0.25 (-0.57%)
NYSE Volume 921,345,000
Nasdaq Volume 814,179,000

11:30AM: Range-bound trading in proximity of the flat line persists, with Energy's 1.7% decline stunting upward traction spurred by Healthcare's 1.1% gain, Telecom's 0.9% jump, and modest rises in Financials (+0.3%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.2%), and Consumer Staples (+0.2%). The Treasury market, on the other hand, maintains its momentum that the strong factory orders read helped catalyze. The benchmark 10-year note is up six ticks, offering investors 4.36%, while the 30-year note (+12/32) currently yields 4.60%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1553/1429, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1493/1262

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/financial_markets/12808176.htm

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

NEW YORK - A federal appeals court on Monday said an antitrust lawsuit against several of the nation's largest telecommunications providers over whether they conspired to exclude competitors from their home markets should be allowed to go forward.

In an opinion issued Monday, a three-judge panel of the Second Circuit Court of Appeals overturned a prior lower-court ruling that dismissed the lawsuit against a group of Baby Bells, including Verizon Communications Inc., BellSouth Corp., Qwest Communications and SBC Communications Inc.

<snip>

The lawsuit alleged the telecommunications companies, which control more than 90 percent of local telephone service in the United States, conspired not to compete against one another in their respective geographic markets for local telephone and high-speed Internet services and to prevent competitors from entering those markets.

The complaint says the alleged conspiracy has driven a number of competing local exchange carriers out of business, restrained competition for local telephone and high-speed Internet services and forced consumers to pay higher rates than they would have in a competitive environment.

...more...

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/breaking_news/12806843.htm

OMAHA, Neb. - Since 1994, the Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has surveyed supply managers in a nine-state region each month to gauge the Mid-America economy.

Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota are the states involved in the survey.

<snip>

Components included 69.2 for new orders, 61.5 for production, 61.5 for delivery lead time, 42.3 for employment and 54.2 for inventories.

"Both durable and nondurable manufacturers in the state reported softening economic conditions for September," said Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss, who heads the group that conducts the survey. "On the other hand, firms in the business services industry recorded solid growth for the month."

...more...

The confidence numbers:

Arkansas's confidence index was 45.8 in September, down from 52.6 in August.

Iowa's confidence index for September was 40.4, down from 55.7 in August.

Kansas' confidence index was 50.0 in September, down from 66.7 in August.

Minnesota's confidence index stayed even in September at 53.6.

Missouri's confidence index in September was 52.0, down from 55.9 in August.

Nebraska's confidence index in September was 52.7, down from 55.7 in August.

North Dakota's confidence index in September was 46.4, down from 63.3 in August.

Oklahoma's confidence index for September was 56.3, up from 35.7 in August.

South Dakota's confidence index for September was 73.9, down from 81.3 in August.

I want some of what those Okies are smokin' :smoke:

if someone had just come up and whacked me with a two-by-four (lots of work and driving and long days were painful as it was).

Here's a picture for you:

Edmund Andrews on the Republican fiscal order:

Emergency Spending as a Way of Life - New York Times : By EDMUND L. ANDREWS:

IF brevity is eloquence, President Bush and Congress set a new standard of brilliance after Hurricane Katrina. In approving Mr. Bush's request for $51.8 billion in emergency assistance, Congress passed a three-page law with fewer than 700 words. Here are the details: $1.4 billion would go to the military, $400 million would go to the Army Corps of Engineers and $50 billion would go for anything else tied to what was described only as "disaster relief."...

The problem facing Mr. Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress is not the cost of Katrina itself. The problem is that, even before Katrina, Congress and the White House had lost their grip on the budget. In the last few years, huge chunks of the federal budget have been channeled through emergency supplemental bills... wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and counterterrorism efforts from Uzbekistan to Africa. The budget is also packed with fiscal time bombs - Medicare prescription benefits, tax cuts and health care costs for veterans - that are set to explode in the next few years....

In theory, emergency spending bills are for one-time, unforeseeable calamities. In practice, Mr. Bush has financed the entire war in Iraq, as well as the war in Afghanistan, with emergency supplemental requests that totaled $248 billion over the last three years. With no sign yet of a troop reduction in Iraq, the costs are likely to exceed $80 billion in 2006....

"There just is no vision for limited government," said Representative Jeff Flake, an Arizona Republican.... "We've had very little support from the leadership on budget rules," Mr. Flake continued. "We've even given away the rhetoric. We've replaced the 'Freedom to Farm' bill with the 'Farm Security Act.' " The first one cut price supports. The second one increased them.

But I wouldn't say that the Republican leadership has "lost its grip" on the budget. That implies the process is accidental. Say, rather, that the Republican leadership has ripped the budget steering wheel off of the steering column and thrown it out the window.

more at Brad DeLong's blog

It's great that we have such a disciplined government in Washington -cutting spending, ferreting out the lobbyists, term limits, being fiscally responsible. Yes, thank God the GOP has taken over and put the "D" back in "discipline."

Yes, I have low post count, but I'm sure you know I'm being sarcastic. Love reading about the markets here everyday, by the way.

Good to "see" you here at the SMW again :hi:

I like your humor - it fits right in :D

I'm a total fool when it comes to the market and money matters. I get a damned good education here. I like to look in a couple of times a day - mid morning and somewhat late afternoon. Damn good posts here every weekday.

12:30
Dow 10,558.29 +22.81 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,165.76 +10.33 (+0.48%)
S&P 500 1,228.73 +2.03 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 43.68 -0.18 (-0.41%)
NYSE Volume 1,093,335,000
Nasdaq Volume 971,113,000

12:05PM: Locked within a tight range that lies within proximity of the flat line, the market's majors have been supported by sustained pullbacks across the energy complex and encouraging sector leadership, especially through the Healthcare sector's 1.3% surge. The latter is on the rise due to broad-based strength found in HMOs, medical equipment, biotech, and pharmaceuticals. Abbott Labs (ABT 43.77 +1.29) has emerged as an especial bright spot, surging over 3% after announcing FDA approval to market its rheumatoid arthritis drug Humira for first-line treatment and upon a subsequent analyst upgrade...

Technology, although demonstrating respectable resilience in the face of hardware's 1.5% slide, currently trades in flat fashion and thereby helps keep the indices tightly contained. With respect to hardware, an early Q3 profit warning from Lexmark (LXK 45.29 -15.65) - by which the company halved its earnings outlook on account of a sales shortfall - has prompted the stock's 25.9% plunge and weighed heavily upon its peers and the overall sector... Goldman Sachs' upgrade of the hardware group, to Attractive from Neutral, may, though, be helping to limit the group's downturn...

Also minimizing sector gains has been an analyst downgrade on Texas Instruments (TXN 32.98 -0.90), but Deutsche Securities' upgrades on Linear Technology (LLTC 37.68 +0.09) has helped keep chip stocks in the plus column... The Consumer Discretionary sector also sits amongst the gainers this morning, bolstered by falling crude and dipping prices at the pump... To that end, retailers have chalked a 0.4% gain that helps to somewhat counter homebuilders' 2.1% slide that a New York Times article, which discussed a slowing housing market and record-pace inside stock sales, sparked...

Energy, however, remains the day's biggest laggard, as the aforementioned declines in crude, gasoline, and natural gas have spurred wide-spread profit-taking across the sector, resulting in a 2.1% decline that effectively stunts the momentum offered by seven sectors' advances... Despite the fact that BP is not itself an S&P 500 constituent, its report that it will not meet FY05 production targets and will see a $700 mln Katrina and Rita-related profit shortfall may be sending further tremors throughout the sector...

Separately, the day's sole piece of economic news was the Aug. factory orders report. Although the read checked in at a stronger than expected +2.5% (consensus +2.0%), the pre-Katrina data has been largely overlooked by the equity market... NYSE Adv/Dec 1635/1399, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1642/1203

FDIC eyes signs of US housing, economic moderation

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-04T162721Z_01_N04669154_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-HOUSING.XML

excerpt:

"However, signs of economic and housing moderation could be emerging, and job growth in even the strongest regions waned slightly in the second quarter," the FDIC report said.

<snip>

Stubbornly low long-term mortgage rates, which have largely ignored increases in short-term borrowing costs, have kept demand among homebuyers robust. But rising home prices have led to a growing use of what the FDIC called "innovative mortgage products," or loans other than traditional 30-year fixed-rate or the most basic adjustable-rate mortgages.

Federal bank regulators have increasingly raised concerns about those alternative loan products, dubbed "exotic" by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, and said they saw signs of loose underwriting among lenders.

The FDIC report said many of the hottest real estate markets saw a deterioration in housing affordability in the second quarter and a higher dependence among buyers on alternative loans. The regulator also cited speculative activity in coastal areas.

<snip>

The FDIC said that as interest rates and energy costs rise, banks' loan losses will likely increase as well.

...more...

Ya think?

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/classifieds/real_estate/12812832.htm

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

excerpt:

The Ramirezes stretched their budget to get the $805,000 house, taking out a wildly popular but controversial type of mortgage that requires them to pay only interest for the next 10 years. They weighed other innovative -- and even riskier -- loans that would have enabled them to bid up to $1 million.

``The emergence of interest-only loans really allows you to buy more for your money,'' said Josh Ramirez, a 30-year-old Yahoo product manager. Without one, ``we probably wouldn't have been able to buy into the neighborhood we wanted.''

Almost overnight, a transformed mortgage industry has rewritten the rules for home-buying. Relying on improved credit scoring, better risk-analysis tools and abundant cheap capital from around the globe, lenders have flooded the market in the past two years with exotic loans that allow consumers to take on more debt and more risk. People who once would have been denied mortgages now get the chance to join the auction and bid up home prices.

<snip>

Interest-only loans, for example, accounted for more than half the purchase loans in the Bay Area in the first quarter of the year. That's nearly five times higher than in 2002, says LoanPerformance, a San Francisco firm that analyzes mortgage trends. And piggy-back loans -- which package two loans for borrowers putting less than 20 percent down -- accounted for about 60 percent of the loan volume in the Bay Area in the first half of 2005, according to SMR Research, a financial-services market research firm in Hackettstown, N.J.

<snip>

The choices are dizzying and complex. Consumers can weigh the merits of 40-year loans, hybrid ARMs, option ARMs, interest-only loans, ``piggyback'' loans and ``liars' loans.''

...more...

Pardon me while I go and quietly (or not) :puke:

there will be alot of defaults on those loans, then these lenders that have too many of these loans on the books will have trouble (this was how the S&L scandle started here in Houston). Look for a bunch of defaults. I am not certain how the new bankruptcy law will affect this. But consumers will be sooooo screwed when the mata hits the fan starting at the end of this month.

To think * is the installed POTUS and the bussiness comunity supports him because ignorance is bliss shows ya where everything is headed eventually.

(a little old but still works)

Current Commentary -- Where Are We Now?

(Sunday 1/2/2005 PM):

Real Estate, Bond Crash, Economy, Inflation/Deflation, and Other Rambling

Real Estate - A Quadruple Bubble - Is the real estate market in a bubble, or perhaps a series of bubbles? I do not have sufficient statistics to back up this thought so it is only a theory at this point... but it looks to me like the domestic real estate bubble has already peaked (bubble #1). But we have not witnessed any significant price decreases because the falling US Dollar has made US real estate appear to be a bargain for foreign investors (bubble #2). One local realtor I talked to recently told me that their office has had a substantial increase in interest from buyers outside of the US. At the same time the number of fixed-interest mortgage primary-residence US buyers have been steadily decreasing for several months. The US buyers that are still quite active, however, seems to be those using ARM's (adjustable rate mortgages). Home buyers using ARM's now outnumber buyers with fixed rate mortgages. These include first-time home owners who otherwise could not afford to buy a home (bubble #3) and existing homeowners that are buying second or vacation homes, and house speculators (bubble #4).
(snip)

Bush's staff has been hounding OPEC to increase production to lower the price of Crude Oil. Yet, OPEC production is pretty much in line relative to where it was a few years ago and taking into account increased demand. The reason crude and gasoline prices are high is not because OPEC is cutting production, rather it is simply because the reduced valuation of the dollar in international trading indirectly raises the price of crude oil.

Inflation is a stealth tax and has a very efficient built-in collection scheme... everyone holding Dollars is affected and everyone's purchasing power is diminished, therefore the collection of this "tax" is 100% efficient. And to make it even better, there is no papework to fill out, no check to send in, no harrassing telephone calls from the tax collector, and the government can continue to print all of the dollars it wants so it can continue a free spending policy.

(snip)

G.W.Bush may say no new taxes, but he must think most people are gullible enough to believe it. Unfortunately, he is probably right about traditional taxes. It seems that most people are more willing to allow their Dollars to lose value to inflation than to pay additional taxes, even though the inflation-effect may do far more damage to their purchasing power. Over history, Americans have been brainwashed into believing that a little inflation is actually good for the economy as well as for each individual. The President is playing this psychological-ignorance game to his full political advantage.
(snip)
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500/Outlook.htm

Howdy there Marketeers! :hi:

I've been taking peeks at the market all day and was wary of the tight range, didn't think today's upward action would hold any better the the levees in NO. Looks like they are starting to give. No surprise considering how idiotic Bush was on TeeVee doin' his speechifyin' thing.

1:58 and here's a snapshot

Dow 10,531.24 -4.24 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,158.27 +2.84 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 1,225.77 -0.93 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.383% -0.00

There has been a yield change in the 10 yr., pretty substantial one unless I'm mistaken....not for the good either.

Julie

Inflation at top end of Fed tolerance zone-Fisher

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-04T181404Z_01_N04679228_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-FISHER-UPDATE-1.XML

DALLAS, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said on Tuesday inflation was running at the "upper end of the Fed's tolerance zone" and warned a loose fiscal policy risked pushing interest rates higher.

"The inflation rate is near the upper end of the Fed's tolerance zone, and it shows little inclination to go in the other direction," Fisher told a luncheon sponsored by the Greater Dallas Chamber of Commerce.

<snip>

He said the Dallas Fed's contacts had heard anecdotal information suggesting the pace of the U.S. expansion had begun to slow slightly before Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast on Aug. 29, followed by Rita on Sept. 24.

Fisher said higher energy prices had been weighing on growth even before Katrina struck, saying recent data had confirmed a slowing trend.

<snip>

But he said in a global economy where capital can move quickly from one spot to another, it was important for U.S. policymakers to safeguard the dollar.

"Business is risky enough without the additional uncertainty created when a nation's unit of account -- in plain language, its money -- is undermined," Fisher said.

...more...

then he blows the *Co spew about taxes causing capital flight :rofl:

that's not usually the plan. :shrug:

:toast: It's high time someone spoke a little truth.

Julie

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-04T182007Z_01_N04659535_RTRIDST_0_HURRICANES-SEC-SHELF.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Regulatory documents filed by insurance companies seeking to raise money to pay victims of the recent hurricanes will be processed faster with fewer burdens, U.S. securities regulators said on Tuesday.

The latest move by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to ease regulatory rules for "shelf" registration statements is aimed at helping insurers tap into the capital markets more easily and quickly so they can pay victims of hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

"The SEC will do what it can to see to it that every victim's insurance has the capital to back it up, and that there are no unnecessary delays in paying claims due to a lack of liquidity," SEC Chairman Chris Cox said in a statement.

Federal regulators announced the latest regulatory relief because of recent warnings by rating agencies concerned that losses from Katrina and Rita may result in capital shortfalls and liquidity concerns.

...more...

Liquidity concerns?

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-04T182821Z_01_N04680571_RTRIDST_0_HURRICANES-INSURANCE-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Insured losses from property damage from Hurricane Katrina have reached $34.4 billion, according to Insurance Services Office (ISO).

The ISO is an information services company that provides actual property claims information to the insurance industry, goverments and lenders.

Yep. I'd say there are some "liquidity concerns".

Dow 10,516.43 -19.05 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,155.06 -0.37 (-0.02%)
S&P 500 1,224.26 -2.44 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.381 -0.05 (-0.11%)

NYSE Volume 1,544,270,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,430,504,000

2:00PM: The Dow and S&P have recently fallen into the red, succumbing to the pressure of Energy's 2.1% decline that gains in Consumer Discretionary (+0.2%), Consumer Staples (+0.3%), Telecom (+0.7%) - as well as Healthcare's 1.2% gain - cannot offset... The passive stances of the influential Financial (+0.01%) and Tech (+0.06%) sectors exacerbate the effect of Energy's decline and are behind the indices' day-long inability to penetrate the tight range within which they've been contained... The Nasdaq, while fading, has managed to remain on positive territory, largely due to a 1.5% rise in biotechs...

NYSE Adv/Dec 1637/1521, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1686/1235

Dow 10,500.42 -35.06 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,153.70 -1.73 (-0.08%)
S&P 500 1,222.10 -4.60 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.387 +0.01 (+0.02%)

NYSE Volume 1,643,848,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,506,008,000

2:30 ET The stock market slips lower, erasing intraday gains as buyers edge further towards the sidelines. Without the interjection of a fresh catalyst to affect the session's sentiment, the market's participants may place buying activity somewhat on hold ahead of the week's economic calendar. Tomorrow, the Sept. ISM Services data will hit the wires, followed by the EIA's weekly inventory report. Thursday features last week's initial claims, but it's Friday's docket that traders are eying. The Sept. employment data are likely to garner much focus, but with the end of the week also comes Aug. wholesale inventory and consumer credit data... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1562/1606. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1634/1296.

Dow 10,469.60 -65.88 (-0.63%)
Nasdaq 2,146.11 -9.32 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,218.51 -8.19 (-0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 4.380 -0.06 (-0.14%)

NYSE Volume 1,733,870,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,585,786,000

Was it the inflation word? Softening Economy? Liquidity Concerns?

hmmmmm....

Dow 10,452.72 -82.76 (-0.79%)
Nasdaq 2,143.12 -12.31 (-0.57%)
S&P 500 1,216.74 -9.96 (-0.81%)
10-Yr Bond 4.376 -0.10 (-0.23%)

NYSE Volume 1,882,641,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,699,604,000

Moody's revises Pinnacle outlook over insurance payments

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38629.6074489352-844723240&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday revised Pinnacle Entertainment Inc.'s (PNK) ratings outlook to stable from positive. The agency said the action was made after the casino-operator said its primary insurance carrier believes damage caused by Hurricane Katrina was the result of flooding rather than a weather catastrophe and planned to limit payments to Pinnacle as a result. Moody's said the increased uncertainty regarding insurance coverage makes it less likely there will be ratings improvement over the intermediate term, particularly given Pinnacle's significant exposure in the Mississippi and New Orleans coastal areas and gaming markets.

Hold on to your hats folks - this one will end up pissing everyone (individuals and corporations) off - and the insurance industry won't have enough "liquidity" to pay the claims that are approved.

3:28
Dow 10,450.15 -85.33 (-0.81%)
Nasdaq 2,140.68 -14.75 (-0.68%)
S&P 500 1,216.36 -10.34 (-0.84%)
10-Yr Bond 43.76 -0.10 (-0.23%)
NYSE Volume 1,924,447,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,736,429,000

3:00PM: Heading further south, the market's majors hit fresh lows of the day. Dual declines in Financials and Tech - which are each now off 0.5% - team with Energy's 2.5% loss in driving stocks lower. Financials' decline is broad-based, banks (-0.7%), brokers (-1.0%), thrifts and mortgage (-1.2%), and REITs (-1.0%) are particular areas of weakness, far outweighing the single gain that insurers (+1.0%) offer the sector... Healthcare remains the session's leader, but has halved it's gain. Its fading leadership serves as a further force behind the market's decline...NYSE Adv/Dec 1396/1806, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1533/1426

the fairies have been appearing sporadically at around 3:30?

Just a pattern that I have been seeing - taking a late happy hour lunch and coming in and trying to "limit" the bad news :eyes:

3:33 EST

Dow 10,464.40 -71.08 (-0.67%)
Nasdaq 2,143.90 -11.53 (-0.53%)
S&P 500 1,217.62 -9.08 (-0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 4.376 -0.10 (-0.23%)

NYSE Volume 1,969,569,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,768,664,000

3:32
Dow 10,460.00 -75.48 (-0.72%)
Nasdaq 2,142.81 -12.62 (-0.59%)
S&P 500 1,217.41 -9.29 (-0.76%)
10-Yr Bond 43.76 -0.10 (-0.23%)
NYSE Volume 1,961,701,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,762,356,000

Gotta run! Have a great afternoon.

Ozy :hi:

Dow 10,441.11 -94.37 (-0.90%)
Nasdaq 2,139.36 -16.07 (-0.75%)
S&P 500 1,214.47 -12.23 (-1.00%)
10-Yr Bond 4.376 -0.10 (-0.23%)

NYSE Volume 2,339,186,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,005,373,000

(blather on edit)

Close: After spending the majority of the session vacillating within a rigid range just above the unchanged mark, the major indices took a late-afternoon turn for the worse and closed at their lows of the day as more hawkish Fed policy talk expunged early buying efforts. While sharp price declines across the energy complex had been the market's source of support, sell-offs in crude, gasoline, and natural gas became overlooked after Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said (around 1:30 ET) that inflation shows "little inclination" to decline and stands near the "upper end" of the Fed's tolerance zone - commentary that sent what few buyers had stuck around after lunch heading for the exits. The market, which stands increasingly, and understandably, nervous ahead of the impending Q3 season, subsequently lacked leadership across the board...

Spending the entire session as the day's largest laggard and exerting the weightiest pressure on the market was the Energy sector, finishing with a loss in excess of 3%. Along with profit-locking that the aforementioned price declines catalyzed, news that BP plc (BP 68.80 -1.80) will not meet FY05 production targets and will see a $700 mln Katrina and Rita-related profit shortfall sent further tremors through the sector...

Next in line came Utilities, off 1.4% on wide-spread consolidation efforts, but it was the coupled effect of respective 1.1% and 1.2% declines from the more influential Financial and Technology sectors that sent the market plunging. While the Financial sector's performance was similarly a result of broad-based weakness, Technology's anguish was rooted in hardware's 3.4% dive. Lexmark's (LXK 43.50 -17.44) pre-bell profit warning - by which the company slashed its Q3 earnings outlook by 50%, citing a sales shortfall - eclipsed Goldman Sachs' upgrade of the hardware group... An analyst downgrade on Texas Instruments (TXN 32.04 -1.84) made tech matters even worse, sending chip stocks down 1.1%...

Although the Consumer Discretionary (-0.8%) sector managed to chalk a modest gain earlier in the session, largely due to energy prices' effects on discretionary issues at large, it too dove underwater when retailers (-0.8%) relinquished their gains and paired with languishing homebuilders - off 3.3% after traders digested a New York Times article that discussed a slowing housing market and highlighted record levels of insider selling within the space. Consumer Staples, while on negative turf, finished as the best-of-the-worst, demonstrating relative strength on the back of Walgreen Co. (WAG 44.15 +0.96) upbeat same store sales report (+7.7%). The drug retailer's 2.5% gain helped offset declines in Procter & Gamble (PG 58.12 -1.19), suffering Citigroup's downgrade, and in Clorox (CLX 53.76 -0.82), which lowered its Q2 (Dec) and FY06 earnings outlooks...

On the flip-side, Healthcare represented the day's single bright spot. While late-day selling pressure seeped in there as well, the sector clung to a 0.7% gain that left it alone above the flat line... Strength in HMOs, medical equipment, biotech, and pharmaceuticals were some of the market's strongest areas, but it was Abbott Labs (ABT 44.01 +1.53) that led the day after announcing that the FDA approved marketing of its rheumatoid arthritis drug Humira for first-line treatment. A subsequent analyst upgrade made for further upside...

Separately, the day's sole piece of economic news was the Aug. factory orders report. Although the read checked in at a stronger than expected +2.5% (consensus +2.0%), the pre-Katrina data was largely overlooked by the equity market... Treasuries, however, took a bit of a bid and closed the 10-year (+03/32) at a 4.37% yield... All in all, though, with Friday's employment data looming and on account of Katrina-related worries coupled with pre-earnings season caution, buyers, ultimately, had little reason to leave the sidelines today...DJTA -1.09, DJUA -1.93, DOT -1.36, Nasdaq 100 -0.63, Russell 2000 -0.98, SOX -1.09, S&P Midcap 400 -1.04, XOI -3.27, NYSE Adv/Dec 1109/2155, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1159/1859

:hi:

Nasdaq -16.07
S&P -12-23

http://www.cleveland.com/business/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/business/1128418302199280.xml&coll=2

Steel firms fear Katrina aftershock
Tuesday, October 04, 2005

After posting relatively strong production numbers in the first half of 2005, Ohio steel makers are bracing for higher natural gas and scrap iron prices linked to Hurricane Katrina.

Officials said the mills are seeing a pickup in orders and expect the increases to extend at least through the fourth quarter.

"Our concern is that high natural gas prices aggravated by the Katrina disaster, as well as the cost of raw materials such as scrap, may undercut the industry's progress," William Brake Jr., chairman of the Ohio Steel Council, said in a statement.

Brake, who also is executive vice president of eastern operations for Mittal Steel USA, said the industry is showing sustained improvement as it emerges from a period of reorganization and restructuring...


http://www.cleveland.com/business/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/business/1128418529199281.xml&coll=2

Rita cuts 30% of tire output for Goodyear

Tuesday, October 04, 2005

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. said its tire production in North America has been cut by about 30 percent due to supply disruptions from the impact of Hurricane Rita in Texas and Louisiana.

So far, deliveries to customers have not been affected, said Keith Price, a spokesman for the Akron tire maker. However, Goodyear has declared "force majeure" under certain of its contracts, indicating it may not be able to meet its contractual obligations because of events outside the company's control.

Although production at one Goodyear synthetic rubber plant was affected by the hurricane, Price said the supply disruptions are occurring mainly at outside suppliers of raw materials such as carbon black. Many of these suppliers have plants in the Texas and Louisiana region hit by the hurricane.

Price said Goodyear is seeking alternative supplies for its tire operations, which total 12 plants in the United States and Canada. Last year, it sold about 100 million tires in North America...

I think that the fallout from all of this will reach every corner of this country before it's over.

No basis at all. More feel good say-anything-you-want-during-war-time psyops.

I have lived in Texas and on this coast most of my life (except for that 4 yr sojourn to the mountains of New Mexico). I have been in every nook and crannie. I have worked in the petro chemical industry, sat through bid auctions, been on rigs, collected mud, compared paleoentology, worked seismic data. I love to fish and have gone birding in the wetlands and estuaries.I have gone out through the ports and know a bit about shipping. I have an excellent command of regional history and its significance. This are is a major area of commerce. NO is at the base of the Mississippi and Ol Miss is a major artery of commerce throughout the center of America. This region provides oil, gas, sea food, rice, sugar, not to mention the imported goods. Galveston was the second immigration destination of choice (just behind Ellis Island). It was NO rival port intil the Houston Ship channel was dug, providing a deep water port. You darn right this country will feel this. No offense to Fla., but these 2 hurricanes will affect the US more than loosing an orange crop. This area is a money and materials generator for commerce. It will sting for some time.

DJIA 10,441.10 -94.40
Nasdaq 2,139.36 -16.07
S&P 500 1,214.47 -12.23
Russell 2000 663.84 -6.71
CBOE Volatility 13.20 +0.74
30 Yr Bond 4.60 -0.02
10 Yr Bond 4.38 -0.01

between today's red column and the futures chart in the OP of this thread and it's many sharp points.....it's painful.

Wincing at the thought of tomorrow. :scared:

Catch you in the am Marketeers!

Juile