Liberals Stable, Tories Drop, NDP Gains in Canada

Liberals Stable, Tories Drop, NDP Gains in Canada

Nov 18

(Angus Reid Global Scan) – The governing Liberal party continues to lead all political organizations in Canada, according to a poll by Decima Research. 33 per cent of respondents would support the Liberals in the next general election.

The Conservative party is second with 26 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 22 per cent, and the Bloc Québécois with 13 per cent. Support for the Grits remained stable since early November, while backing for the Tories fell by four points.

...

On Nov. 13, the leaders of the three main federal opposition parties—who hold 172 seats in the 308-member lower house—announced that they have agreed to cooperate to compel a federal ballot earlier than the Liberal government would like. The proposed motion allows time to conclude some more legislative business, while it calls for the government to commit to holding an election in February 2006.

Should the government refuse the motion, the opposition leaders have pledged to force a non-confidence vote on Nov. 28, which would lead to ballots being cast in early January. Such an election would be preceded by a campaign during the holiday season, which is widely believed to be unpopular with Canadians.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/9907

Why oh why can't we be more like our more civilized northern neighbor.

Liberals up, conservatives down. That's what I like to hear.

Hope a similar mood strikes our own country in three years.

...what's going to happen if the NDP and Liberals rank first and second (or vice versa) in the election.

Do they form a coalition/alliance, given that it was the NDP whose denial of support for the current government causes the election? That would be embarassing for the NDP.

Does the NDP form a coalition/alliance with the Tories or the Bloc? Sure, and we'll be watching pigs fly over the house any minute now.

Even if either the NDP or the Libs rank third, they either must support one another or give way to the Tories.

Now here's a more interesting question. What happens if the Tories and Bloc have sufficient votes to form a government? Will they form the Unholy Alliance?

hardly ever mentioned is a Liberal-Conservative coalition. But I think it's quite possible. No one could enter into an alliance with the BQ, and the NDP would not join with the Conservatives. If it's a minority, and the numbers aren't there for the Liberals/NDP, I think some "grand coalition" of the centre and right is what's going to happen.

I'd bet the farm against that one.

Tories would have an easier time selling an alliance with the BQ (blame Trudeau for excluding Quebec in the charter, rectifying wrongs, distinct society, etc) everything short of separation. it would also give them the representation from Quebec (and further inroads by showing what a 'friend' the Tories are to Quebec aspirations).

One thing I'm pretty sure of, Ontario won't be a bastion for the Liberals this time. Between McGuinty and Martin, there are no popular Liberal leaders here.

The NDP could score big here, especially with Howard's new committee investigating property taxes (-that- is going to help him if it's done smartly). Jack really needs to coordinate with Howard in this province.

Ah to live in interesting times :-)

have most of them in Quebec and do not run candidates anywhere else.

What the NDP may get is enough seats to form a permanent coalition with the Liberals. Which means the Liberals will have to pay attention to them for 5 years.

This is good news. It seems the Tories are loosing support to the NDP in the West.

I would pretty much vote for ANYONE else.

Doesn't that sound so much better than the Liberals.

"Lieberal" is a knee-jerk expression used by American conservatives when they don't have any genuine complaints. The herd of bullshitters currently in power in Canada are properly referred to as the Fibberal Party (Attn. lurking freepers: That's ours. You can't have it.). Don't try to copy the Yanks; that's how we got in this mess in the first place. ;)

And I'll be voting NDP too, but I'm not betting on a win. They've been the underdogs at the federal level for so long that there's barely anyone, even in their own party, who expects them to come out on top. In a sufficiently divided House, though, they should pick up a nice chunk of swing votes. It's that Lib/Con alliance Minstrel Boy mentioned that has me worried.

please do not vote for those bigoted, homophobic assholes in the Canadian-Reform-Alliance Party (CRAP for short).

Just saying.

It makes it easier to send a signal to the centrist parties, but the LW is divided between two parties while the RW is consolidated in one.

This is -not- good for the Canadian left.

On the other hand, the Liberals and NDP have an ancient history of working together. If not voting together in a minority government, the Liberals are implementing NDP policies (lightly guised as "Liberal policies").

I hope they surpass the rightists. I also hope that the Liberals do not get a majority and are forced left for a coalition.

I really hope that continues, and that the NDP continues to gain support and comes in second.

Barbara Tuchman's book was about political developments that were mistaken from the get-go, but took on a momentum of their own so they couldn't be stopped (hence folly - the Viet Nam war is one of her case studies).

This seems similar. The opposition political parties talked themselves into a lather over Gomery (which I think was hugely overplayed), and now they can't seem to back down. If there is an election called next week, the Tories will almost certainly come out the worse, and the NDP doesn't stand to gain anything substantive either. If you don't stand to gain, then you can only stand to lose. I just don't get it.

At least it will probably rid us of Harper.

frothing at the mouth to force an early election is because their internal polling is showing the Liberals would be more likely to recover enough to get back into a majority government position. Nothing else makes any sense because, as you say, there is no political gain substantively in forcing this now.

Perhaps there is a sense that time is on the Liberals side - the longer they have, the more people's comfort level will return. This mini-budget looks politically astute, as most of the tax breaks are targeted at the lower end of the income range according to my reading. Perhaps there is a desire to forestall that.

I sensed a bit of backing off in today's globe from the Conservatives. They said they could still vote against the mini-budget, which I think the NDP will vote for. If that happens, they could vote against the NDP confidence motion, claiming the NDP won't cooperate or something like that. Why? - Harper's polls are looking bad. The Gomery bounce has already evaporated, and people are starting to express their distaste for an early election.

Just a hunch.

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Anyone even hints, or openly supports The American Administrations' aggressive genocide is no friend of Canadians

Personally, I think Canada should have gone further,(sanctions - petro/hydro cut-offs etc.) but Gawd(ess) bless Chretien for telling Bush " no way" - "We don't do Regime Changes" and then the beef/lumber tariffs/restrictions escalated - so fuck U USA - China and Russia are getting real interested in our resources, and sorry, But the US of A does not seem to be our best friend anymore - - Just the biggest World bully - - we ain't impressed . . .

nor overly scared -


wary? - yes - Stupid? - no way - why do you think we are "hustling" China and Russia ? - cuz it appears to us Canucks that our most immediate danger is right on our Southern Border !! -

feel what a "glass ceiling" is really like.

a Liberal minority government. Layton would be better served not to be seen as a partner with the Bloc and faux Cons given there is no political gain for him and the NDP by doing this, imo.

The only thing that makes sense in forcing an earlier than expected election is if there is fear among the three opposition parties that waiting will give the Liberals a majority government.

Although we're not there yet.

Go Jack!

'Cause that? Embarrassing.

...without fear of aiding the Tories. Last election, we were frightened into voting Liberal to counteract a strong PC popularity that now, seems to have waned.