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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 04:24 PM
Original message
Holiday retail spending up 8.7 pct: report
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyid=2005-12-27T123713Z_01_DIT708550_RTRUKOC_0_US-RETAIL-HOLIDAY-STUDY.xml&rpc=23

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumers spent 8.7 percent more during the just ended holiday shopping period than in the comparable period a year ago, according to a report from an affiliate of MasterCard International, the Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition on Monday.

The study, by SpendingPulse, covered the period from the Friday after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday through December 24, Christmas Eve. That period included 30 days in 2005, compared with 29 days in 2004.

The report found the biggest increases in spending on home furnishings, up 15.2 percent, followed by consumer electronics and appliances, up 10.5 percent. Spending on jewelry was down 4.6 percent.

The report covers spending in stores and on the Internet, and includes food sales. It excludes spending on autos and gasoline.

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Oreo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 04:28 PM
Response to Original message
1. More money for the credit card companies... more debt for US consumers
I wonder how many of these people won't be able to pay for all the stuff they bought. When they find out Bush and his minions in Congress took away bankruptcy they'll wonder why nobody ever told them.
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ny_liberal Donating Member (387 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 07:26 PM
Response to Reply #1
27. part of this will be returned
now that Christmas is over
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xray s Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 04:29 PM
Response to Original message
2. it would be interesting to see a regional breakdown
I wonder how much of the spending is storm related, especially the furnature/appliance number.
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Sanity Claws Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 04:49 PM
Response to Reply #2
7. Bingo
I know I didn't see an increase in sales; the stores weren't crowded. I couldn't figure out why there was this increase in light of what I saw. I think your explanation is probably it. The increase in home furnishings was to replace all that was lost in the storms.
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Orangepeel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 05:23 PM
Response to Reply #2
17. here is a regional breakdown
By region, sales in the Southeast, including North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida and Georgia, grew 11%, according to SpendingPulse, while Pacific states like California, Oregon and Washington, experienced a 9.6% increase. The smallest gain, 5.3%, belonged to the Great Plains area including Kansas, Missouri, Minnesota and North Dakota. Sales in the Northeast grew just 6.9%; 8.1% in the mid-Atlantic and 8.4% in North Central states including Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois.

from the WSJ

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113564495859931796.html
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Media_Lies_Daily Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 04:32 PM
Response to Original message
3. Hmmm. How are they defining the word "spent"? Are they talking.....
....about actual dollars spent, or are they talking about numbers of units sold?

I think we all know that the retail outlets were totally sales-happy this year, which should translate into more units sold, but at a lower total revenue.
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 04:34 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Found this which adds a bit more detail
http://www.idexonline.com/

SpendingPulse, by MasterCard Advisors of MasterCard International, found that during the same period online and store purchases of jewelry fell back 4.6 percent compared to last year.

These numbers suppress the National Retail Federation holiday prediction of a 6 percent increase in total holiday retail sales to $439 billion and contrasts IDEX Online Research prediction of 3 – 4 percent increase in jewelry sales.

One possible reason for the difference is that SpendingPulse counts gift card sales when purchased, while the NRF does so when the cards are redeemed. Unlike online purchases, which are almost always made with credit cards, store sales include check and cash purchases too, which are not counted by MasterCard.


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WePurrsevere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 05:01 PM
Response to Reply #4
10. Are they basing this supposed increase on MC's credit card sales?
An increase in sales is certainly not something we participated in and the local shops and mall were much quieter then usual during the holidays... eerily so actually.

If there is a real increase I'd like to know who is spending enough to take up the slack we've seen not to mention where are they getting the funds? If it's because they're maxing out the credit cards that's rather scary given the unstable economy, job (in)security and new bankruptcy laws. As someone already mentioned, I suppose it could also be due to folks replacing all of the things they lost in the hurricanes.... hopefully using insurance payoffs and not their credit cards.

Hopefully this nasty head cold has me more fogged in then I think and I'm wrong.
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Orangepeel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 05:20 PM
Response to Reply #3
14. dollars spent
retail sales are reported in revenue, not units.
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Media_Lies_Daily Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 06:08 PM
Response to Reply #14
22. Based on hot air generated, evidently.
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gizmo1979 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 04:38 PM
Response to Original message
5. I don't believe those Numbers
for 1 second.Christmas eve day the stores were dead.No F#$#ing way.
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 04:47 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. The malls were packed around here but the discounts were huge
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meganmonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 04:51 PM
Response to Original message
8. An affiliate of MasterCard? I don't believe them
Everything else I have heard and read indicates that this is not true.
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Bob3 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 04:56 PM
Response to Original message
9. Expect this number to be revised and revised down
it's a puff number - they can't have all the details in yet so I presume they estimated and were optimistic. cold reality will arrive sometime in january.
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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 05:16 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. You'll like this little tidbit, then . . .
Post #42:

4:20 pm : The major averages opened higher amid upbeat holiday spending data and falling oil prices, but continued deterioration in the latter eventually compelled a limited number of investors to consolidate gains across the board, as the indices closed at session lows and all ten economic sectors lost ground. As is typically the case for the week wedged between Christmas and New Year's, total volumes were below average, providing less conviction behind today's broad-based move into negative territory which resulted in the Dow posting its largest one-day loss since late October.

While many initially thought a MasterCard SpendingPulse report that showed holiday spending rose 8.7% might help ignite a traditional year-end rally, skepticism behind the report -- one based on data excluded in more widely-following consumption reports and perhaps garnering added attention in the absence of notable earnings and economic data -- eventually overshadowed its potential importance.

EDIT

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2007803#2008577
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Media_Lies_Daily Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #12
21. Very important point....good find!
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gizmo1979 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 06:20 PM
Response to Reply #12
24. I knew they were lying.
good find I feel much better now.
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NeoConsSuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 07:01 PM
Response to Reply #9
25. Investors weren't falling for it either..
it was one of the reasons why the market tanked today. From a wrapup at Yahoo finance:

While many initially thought a MasterCard SpendingPulse report that showed holiday spending rose 8.7% might help ignite a traditional year-end rally, skepticism behind the report -- one based on data excluded in more widely-following consumption reports and perhaps garnering added attention in the absence of notable earnings and economic data -- eventually overshadowed its potential importance.

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FlemingsGhost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 05:13 PM
Response to Original message
11. Uh huh ... Soon, we'll all be wearing golden underwear.
God Ble$$ America.

:eyes:

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Tempest Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 05:18 PM
Response to Original message
13. Sales may have increased, but what about profits?
There was a lot of heavy discounting this year.

Companies don't survive in making sales, they survive in making a profit.
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wakeme2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 05:23 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. Bingo we have a winner
Very little profits in $400 Laptops and $300 PCs......But they up the $$$ amounts.
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Orangepeel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 05:22 PM
Response to Original message
15. WSJ explanation of the report

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113564495859931796.html...

The SpendingPulse data covers the period from Friday, Nov. 25, through Saturday, Dec. 24, a 30-day shopping season this year compared with only 29 days in 2004. The projection is based on data and analysis that includes purchases made via credit and debit cards, cash and checks. It includes sales at stores and on the Internet, sales of gift cards and sales of food in stores and restaurants. It doesn't include auto or gasoline sales.

The strongest category gains came in home furnishings, including linens and picture frames, with sales up 15%, according to the SpendingPulse data. Sales of consumer electronics grew 11%, fueled in part by prices for flat-screen TVs and digital cameras that were lower than last year. Sales of sporting goods, books, music and video advanced 6.4%, while apparel rose 5.8%, despite the lack of must-have items this year. Women's apparel did a little better, with an 8.2% gain. Furniture sales rose 5.3%. Sales of jewelry slid 4.6%, perhaps as shoppers funneled their big-ticket spending into electronics.

Online spending continued to explode this year, as retailers offered Web-only discounts and shipped gifts later than ever. Holiday retail sales on the Internet are expected to top predictions of $19.6 billion in sales this year, a figure that is 24% ahead of the $15.8 billion consumers spent online last holiday season, according to comScore Networks Inc., a Reston, Va., market-research firm.


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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 05:50 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. Ok, $4 billion more online...how much more (or less) in B&M?
Edited on Tue Dec-27-05 05:52 PM by Roland99
And, $4 billion over a 30-day period isn't really a lot of money. That's about $13.75/person in the US
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Missy M Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 05:46 PM
Response to Original message
18. It isn't how much you sold , ....
it's how much did you make. Your profit is what counts.
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daleo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 05:57 PM
Response to Original message
20. Wouldn't this just be spending through Mastercard?
Edited on Tue Dec-27-05 06:00 PM by daleo
"...according to a report from an affiliate of MasterCard International..."

On edit - I see they claim to be including cash, but how would they know about that, other than cash advances made on credit cards?
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Orangepeel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 07:08 PM
Response to Reply #20
26. credit and debit cards, cash and checks
The projection is based on data and analysis that includes purchases made via credit and debit cards, cash and checks. It includes sales at stores and on the Internet, sales of gift cards and sales of food in stores and restaurants. It doesn't include auto or gasoline sales.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113564495859931796.html

This is just a projection. We'll see how correct or incorrect it is in late January.

The National Retail Federation, an industry group, had predicted a 6% rise in overall holiday spending, well behind the SpendingPulse projection. Several factors explain the discrepancy: The SpendingPulse data reflects both online sales and sales of gift cards; the NRF counts only a portion of online sales, and it doesn't count sales of gift cards until they are redeemed. MasterCard adjusts the SpendingPulse data to eliminate effects of new-card usage and the general shift in spending to credit from cash.

MasterCard's SpendingPulse data attempts to mirror the retail data collected each month by the Commerce Department. Data for the month of December from both MasterCard and the Commerce Department is expected to be released later in January.

Last year, MasterCard projected a 8.1% gain in holiday retail sales, and in January 2005, the Commerce Department reported an 8.7% increase in December sales. The NRF forecast a 4.5% gain in 2004 holiday sales and in January 2005 reported a 5.7% rise.


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Innoma Donating Member (224 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 06:10 PM
Response to Original message
23. Sure didn't seem like a bang-up shopping season to me...
I always dread the week before Christmas because that's when the wife wants to get out and hit the stores with reckless abandon. Since she doesn't drive, I must always brace myself for the onslaught of traffic and hordes of foul-tempered shoppers. This year was an exception. The crowds never materialized, shopping was a breeze, and traffic was light, right up to Christmas Eve. In fact, I'd say this was the lightest Christmas shopping season I've ever seen, so somehow that report just doesn't wash.
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yorkiemommie1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-27-05 08:59 PM
Response to Original message
28. local mall was packed today

i saw everything from newborn babies to the very old! the lines were 10 long at places like sears, penney's and marshall's and many were carrying bags.

i'm in socal.
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