STOCK MARKET WATCH, FRIDAY JULY 18.....(#1)

LONDON (Reuters) - Wall Street looked set to nose higher on Friday as investors cheered encouraging results from software giant Microsoft MSFT.O , although a key consumer sentiment survey before the market opens may affect the mood.

"With Microsoft coming in with relatively good news, this will offset the bad news we had from IBM, and the market may look to go up a little at the end of the week," said David Richards, a trader at Financial Spreads.

By 5:45 a.m. EDT, U.S. equity index futures pointed to a flat to slightly higher start to New York trading.

story

Gee, I'm glad it's Friday! Loooong week.........and not a good one on Wall Street.

But, hey! We're not in recession! Experts say so; don't you feel better??? Well, here's an alternative view:
Taking Issue with the Recession Date

It's over ... so get a job

The recent declaration by a group of economists flies in the face of real world evidence.
July 17, 2003: 1:41 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If you are one of the nearly 1 million people who have lost a job since 2001, keep in mind it wasn't because of macro-economics. You're simply a loser.

Got a problem with that? Take it up with the National Bureau of Economic Research. That's the august body that pinpoints business cycles in the United States. Its seven-member dating committee has decided that the latest recession, at least the latest one we know about, started in March 2001 (well before 9/11) and ended November 2001.

Since then, we've been in a recovery phase.

Huh? About 938,000 people have lost their jobs since November 2001. Factory output has retreated eight times since then, not counting the months when it just stagnated. Airlines and retailers have gone bankrupt and huge budget deficits have mounted.

This is a recovery?
<more>

If this is what they call a recovery, by these standards, I doubt any of us could survive a full-blown recession.

Really, the only significant issues about this story are (a) that the words "recession" and "over" make it into newspaper headlines, also to be muttered by TV's talking heads; and (b) this is continued politicization of data parsing.

Recession’s End

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, report released today stated that the U.S. Economy emerged from recession in November 2001 after eight months and is now recovering even though it has yet to generate jobs. Of course this data is based on the numbers reported by the U.S. Government, and the validity of those numbers has increasingly come under scrutiny. I’ll bet the 6.4% of the U.S. population that is currently unemployed still thinks the U.S. is still in a recession.

Today’s weekly job report surprised many as first time claims fell a sharp 29,000 during the last week, dropping to 412,000 from a revised 441,000 the prior week. Analysts polled were expecting 425,000 new claims. The four-week moving average also dropped, falling to 424,000, remaining above the critical 400,000 mark for the 22nd consecutive week, the longest run in more than a decade. Much of the drop in claims reflected difficulties in adjusting for seasonal shutdowns, while appearing to be a positive step for the economy. The financial markets mostly ignored the data and sold off throughout the day as several companies reported earnings for the second quarter.

Helping the indexes add to their losses today were concerns about IBM and Nokia’s earnings reports as the iron clad case for an economic rebound and corporate profit growth in the second half have begun to show its cracks. Nokia, the world’s top cell-phone maker, tumbled 19 percent after posting weaker second quarter earnings and warning that a soft dollar would hurt sales and profit at its main handset unit. The 19 percent drop today was backed by solid volume and literally wiped out the entire rally of the last four months within minutes of the open. IBM in the meantime reported earnings in line with expectations, but its sales data, new services contract and microelectronics business disappointed. CFO Andy Bryant, was also quoted as saying, “We’re not seeing signs of an economic recovery.” After the market closed technology bellwether Microsoft released their most recent quarter’s earnings. While posting strong revenues, earnings fell a penny short of analysts’ expectations. If the way the Street reacted to Yahoo’s earnings report is an indication of things to come, as they failed to exceed expectations, tomorrow’s trading session could get ugly, barring any engineered intervention, of course.

more...

What does that mean, I wonder? I read some books about the Great Depression and big bankers did try to keep the market from crashing. Is that what they mean?

Plunge Protection Team
By Brett D. Fromson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, February 23, 1997; Page H01
The Washington Post

It is 2 o'clock on a hypothetical Monday afternoon, and the Dow Jones industrial average has plummeted 664 points, on top of a 847-point slide the previous week.

The chairman of the New York Stock Exchange has called the White House chief of staff and asked permission to close the world's most important stock market. By law, only the president can authorize a shutdown of U.S. financial markets.

In the Oval Office, the president confers with the members of his Working Group on Financial Markets -- the secretary of the treasury and the chairmen of the Federal Reserve Board, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

more...

The Plunge Protection Team does exist (see: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/blackm/plunge.htm or google it for yourself)

Basically, big players can and most-likely DO buy/sell to counter unwanted trends in the market. Yes, stock manipulation is supposed to be against the law. But this is different(just don't ask HOW it's different!)

:donut:

So the blather says things are looking up <image of me filing my nails> because Microsoft is showing a profit and that means everyone, on average, is richer because Bill Gates is richer.

Whadda you think?

Unless someone decides to do some very heavy lifting, Ouija predicts another down day. :hangover:

We could combine Ouija, I Ching and get ahold of Rad's eight ball and Voila!! The future! haha

I suspect more heavy lifting went into yesterday than one might think.

Julie

Compensation packages at Freddie Mac are being probed for evidence that senior executives stood to make big personal gains by understating profits at the US housing finance group.
<..cut..>
Federal regulators want to know if cash bonuses and option pay-outs were structured in a way that rewarded executives for holding back profits from one year so that their subsequent declaration would boost compensation in following years.
<..cut..>
The issue of incentives and compensation will be discussed in a report to be released this month which is being prepared for Freddie Mac by Baker Botts, a Washington law firm.

story

Baker Botts: as in Bush's attorneys during the election 2000 debacle and attorneys for the defendants in the 9/11 ($1 trillion) lawsuit.

I think it is safe to say we survived another week of the Bush Regime. Unlike that poor Kelly fellow. (Is it me or are they getting bolder?)

So is it a PPT kind of day? I am certain yesterday was. For the DOW to be kept in check throughout the day while the Nasdaq and S&P went pretty deep, well, I say we dust for prints. ;-)

I'll be watchin' with you....

Julie

I say we'd better keep all our eyes open for the bodies since Cheney's Energy Task Force papers have seen daylight. The midnight crowd at DU deluged all of the major dailies and broadcast outlets with this news that all can see at www.judicialwatch.org.

Of course, we will have to wait for Tenet to sing like a canary to find out where all the other bodies have been stashed.

All of this makes me wonder how the markets will react.

and what will now be required of the PPT. ;-)

These times we live in are beyond interesting.....

Julie

Dow 9,103.83 +53.01 (+0.59%)
Nasdaq 1,709.76 +11.74 (+0.69%)
S&P 500 987.02 +5.29 (+0.54%)
10-Yr Bond 3.969% +0.015


Why it's all good!! Imagine that! Money pouring into the markets and treasuries! Wow! Dust for prints.

Julie

DJIA 9,099.98 49.16 (+0.54%)
NASDAQ 1,705.71 7.69 (+0.45%)
S&P 500 986.17 4.44 (+0.45%)

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks chugged higher at Friday's open as encouraging results from software leader Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq:MSFT - news) and telecom gear maker Ericsson (news - web sites) (Nasdaq:ERICY - news) lured investors back into the market after three days of declines.

blurb

DJIA 9,099.98 49.16 (+0.54%)
NASDAQ 1,705.71 7.69 (+0.45%)
S&P 500 986.17 4.44 (+0.45%)

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks chugged higher at Friday's open as encouraging results from software leader Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq:MSFT - news) and telecom gear maker Ericsson (news - web sites) (Nasdaq:ERICY - news) lured investors back into the market after three days of declines.

blurb

DJIA 9,099.98 49.16 (+0.54%)
NASDAQ 1,705.71 7.69 (+0.45%)
S&P 500 986.17 4.44 (+0.45%)

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks chugged higher at Friday's open as encouraging results from software leader Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq:MSFT - news) and telecom gear maker Ericsson (news - web sites) (Nasdaq:ERICY - news) lured investors back into the market after three days of declines.

blurb

Michigan sentiment index up

Closely watched measure of consumer confidence posts tiny gain in July.
July 18, 2003: 9:48 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A closely watched measure of consumer confidence in the United States rose slightly in July, a published report said Friday.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 90.3 from 89.7 in June, according to market sources quoted by Reuters. Economists, on average, expected a reading of 90, according to a Reuters poll.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Briefing.com expected 91, however; they write the blather for Yahoo.

Boy, my DU is really slllllooowwww today! Anyone else having a problem?

Or maybe the problem is me, I'm a little :hangover: from drinking too much Merlot last night while watching "Comical Ari" on David Letterman. I started screaming at the teevee with so much vehemence that my boyfriend actually got a little freaked out.

Anyway, enough of my personal problems....or maybe it's also affecting my reading for today....because it is REALLY CONFUSING! The I Ching showed SUBORDINATE changing to ZENITH. Now, maybe I'm trying to make it harder than it actually is. Maybe it just means down in the morning and then closing higher. But these lines from the SUBORDINATE hexagram trouble me, "The situation is disappointing. To attain your DESIRES, it will be necessary for you to compromise your SELF." To go from that to ZENITH - a time when potentials are fulfilled, and goals are realized - seems a little far-fetched to me.
:shrug:

Anyone got any insights????

Just grasping at straws here. It sounds a bit like changing adversity into advantage. Perception being the rule - can any loss today be inferred as long-term gain?

Maybe the long-term gain is that if the market is bad enough, people will vote Democratic next election!

Of course, I don't know where that leaves our retirement plans, unfortunately.
:-(

NEW YORK - Topping the news this hour, AOL Time Warner says it struck a $1 billion deal to sell its CD and DVD manufacturing business to Canada's Cinram International to help pay down its $26 billion debt.

story

Not a cheerful day, at all, at all, but only one index in the red right now.
Dow 9,089.55 +38.73 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq 1,693.24 -4.78 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 983.00 +1.27 (+0.13%)

10:56 and the market seems a bit confused:


Dow 9,091.36 +40.54 (+0.45%)
Nasdaq 1,698.04 +0.02 (0.00%)
S&P 500 984.51 +2.78 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 3.955% +0.001


I am heading out for a bit to run a couple of political type errands so I'll check back in a bit. No telling what things will look like then.

Julie

Coventina mentioned this earlier - but mine has just kept getting worse. Anyone else?

I'm back at the moment, but ready to throw in the towel again.

My Tomb Raider game is calling my name.....
:D

Back this afternoon

DJIA 9,116.37 65.55 (+0.72%)
NASDAQ 1,700.28 2.26 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 986.21 4.48 (+0.46%)

My DU surfing has speeded up a bit. Maybe because there's less traffic due to frustrated people.

From earlier--12:30PM : The indices have broken out of their trading ranges, with the blue-chip averages setting new session highs since the last update... Among the best-performing sectors in today's session is the oil services group, which is strong following solid gains in the space yesterday... Contributing to the favorable sentiment is a Banc of America call to be aggressive buyers of select Oil Services stocks on view that the stock and drilling cycles are not yet over and in anticipation of a positive outlook from conference calls...

Firm's special situation recommendations include Hanover Compressor (HC 11.18 +0.11, target $14) and Halliburton (HAL 21.46 +0.21, target $30)...
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html

adding the bold lettering is my only comment.

Dow 9,127.43 +76.61 (+0.85%)
Nasdaq 1,702.92 +4.90 (+0.29%)
S&P 500 987.60 +5.87 (+0.60%)

I like the sort of stair-step effect, don't you?

Dow 9,149.50 +98.68 (+1.09%)
Nasdaq 1,706.17 +8.15 (+0.48%)
S&P 500 990.16 +8.43 (+0.86%)

Quite a showing for the Street today! I had no idea what to expect, but it wasn't this.

3:21 and things are absolutely fabulous......


Dow 9,171.76 +120.94 (+1.34%)
Nasdaq 1,711.37 +13.35 (+0.79%)
S&P 500 992.75 +11.02 (+1.12%)
10-Yr Bond 3.969% +0.015


Hmmm....

Julie

Dow 9,188.15 +137.33 (+1.52%)
Nasdaq 1,708.51 +10.49 (+0.62%)
S&P 500 993.32 +11.59 (+1.18%)

See y'all next week as we continue our journey down the yellow brick road! :hi:

to that man behind the curtain!

Have a good weekend all! Maeve I'll e-mail you about next week.

Julie