Roll Call: R-NY Boehlert will announce retirement....

In and of themselves, the number of retirements that a party has is not a particularly good leading indicator of seat changes. But, a large number of retirements from incumbents in vulnerable seats can result in a large number of seat changes. With over 95 percent of incumbents in a typical year getting re-elected (though for a party in a bad year it can drop as low as 80 percent), open seats in vulnerable districts increases the volatility in the House and the exposure to losses.

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Obviously, the current bleak political environment and the prospect of a bruising campaign may force some entrenched Republican incumbents to reconsider another term. But, where those retirements come from is still not clear. Of the ten House chairmen who must step down at the end of the current Congress because of term limits, two -- Jim Nussle and Mike Oxley -- have already announced they were leaving the House at the end of their current term. Of the remaining eight Chairmen, the only other particularly troubling retirement for Republicans would be House Science Committee Chairman Sherwood Boehlert. His upstate New York district has a very similar political profile to that of Kolbe's.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2005/11/29/one_question_for_charlie_cook.html