Bird-Flu Pandemic Would Likely Start in California

http://news.yahoo.com/s/hsn/20060330/hl_hsn/birdflupandemicwouldlikelystartincalifornia



Bird-Flu Pandemic Would Likely Start in California
By Ed Edelson

THURSDAY, March 30 (HealthDay News) -- If a bird-flu pandemic does hit the United States, it may well start in California and spread across the country in just two to four weeks.

And the best way to slow its spread would be to have workers stay at home.

That's the scenario drawn from results of a computer model created by researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health's Fogarty International Center. And while the results of that computer model should be interpreted with caution, it is based on data from ordinary flu epidemics for the last three decades, said study author Dr. Mark A. Miller, associate director for research at the center.

"The unique feature of this model is that it challenges conventional wisdom, which says that flu is spread by children bringing it back to the household," Miller said. "That may be true at the household level, but regionally it is spread by adults."

How about y'all?

At least the CDC and local public health organizations are being properly funded now to deal with epidemic/pandemic flu. The recent public health measures truly sucked, and were starved under Bush.

--p!

coming forward to question the outrageously unscientific estimates of the few who say -- based on nothing other than their own ass excretions -- that the risk of avian flu crossing the species boundary in the next year or two is nearly or over 50%.

I'm glad for the funding. I'm glad for the better preparation. I don't believe the hype unless they've already made it in the lab and are just waiting to unleash it.

Are you going to tell us all to stay at home for a month or two?

that's what the whole country could look forward to

He will bomb the Canary Islands.
:evilgrin:

"Ya cain't be too careful with them there dangerous canaries..."

"start" in Texas, Florida and Minnesota (why Minnesota, I have no idea, seems weird to me).

I recall reading that a few years back but can't find any ref to it now. From memory it was a cook at an army fort who fell sick at about 11am in the morning and died that afternoon.

so to speak.


Without having read the report in Science magazine (I've only read the linked article from the OP), I'd throw another wrinkle in. It may start in California, but wait until the first folks get off the "red-eye" flights (and other flights) from CA to NYC, D.C., and other East Coast major destinations with dense populations. I can see it marching in two directions towards the country's mid-section.

As the avian flu has YET to mutate to enable the cross-species "jump" -- we still have time to prepare. I know DUers won't count on BushCo to do that for them. Any concern or fearmongering shown by * is another matter; as usual, George "arrives late for the party and shits on the dining room table"; in this case, by using the Avian flu scare for one of his "be afraid, be very afraid...and only I can save you" speeches.

Several months ago in another avian flu thread, someone on DU talked about Bush being the little boy who cried 'wolf'; and they're right. While he's been busy scaring those he can, those of us he can't scare have been growing more and more cynical about what comes out of his mouth, to the point that even if he managed one day to state an absolute truth that we already knew to be true, we'd have to check with our sources before we'd truly accept it. This is the ultimate danger of the man. (I use the term "man" loosely, and with apologies to male humans everywhere.)

BushCo never found a fear they wouldn't (or couldn't) exploit. Yet, I don't take this lightly, even if Bush is exploiting it. I'd rather prepare and not have needed to do so, then act too late.

it would come south from Canada. I'm reasonably sure that birds migrate across to there from northern europe and then fly south.

The birds will be the least of your worries. It will be your workmates, and the handles on the supermarket trolleys you'll need to beware of then.

There have been cases in Europe, certainly, but this disease is well-established in Asia. It's reasonable to expect the eastward migrating birds to hit our West Coast carrying the virus.

But what the hell? Our weathermen get stuff wrong. I'm not going to worry too much about which direction its coming from until it jumps species. Right now and for our part, this is all so much speculation and intellectual exercise. Here's hoping it stays that way.

....

"The unique feature of this model is that it challenges conventional wisdom, which says that flu is spread by children bringing it back to the household," Miller said. "That may be true at the household level, but regionally it is spread by adults."

That's why measures to keep people at home could slow the spread of infection, Miller said. Another finding in the study is that states with large populations, such as California, are more likely to reach epidemic levels of the flu at the same time than less-populous states, where transmission tends to be more erratic, he said.

(duh)

....

As for the speed of spread, the estimate is based on ordinary epidemics. "What we see is that epidemics with more pathogenic viruses spread more quickly, two to four weeks versus five to seven weeks for less pathogenic viruses nationwide," Miller said.

Bird flu is pathogenic, but it does not yet spread easily from person to person; close exposure to an infected bird is needed to cause a human infection. The danger will come when, and if, a mutation makes human-to-human transmission easy.

....

Still, the model can help plan for ordinary, predictable epidemics by showing how they start and spread, Miller said. It's also not the first of its kind, he said: "We did a similar model to explain the spread of measles."

I'm taking off my gas mask...

I think it's likelier to originate in the factory pig farms in eastern NC.

But yes, I think most folks would have to stay home with essential workers like sanitation, water, utility, healthcare workers wearing masks.

Magical thinking won't help us and neither will the magical thinkers Stupid has put in charge of all the agencies that are supposed to help us cope with this thing should it occur.

trials were a flop

Bird flu vaccine only works at highest dose: study
Wed Mar 29, 2006 5:10 PM ET
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - An experimental vaccine against H5N1 bird flu only appears to work at the very highest doses, meaning it will be harder than feared to protect the population against a pandemic, researchers said on Wednesday.
The vaccine, made by a unit of Sanofi-Aventis and based on an H5N1 virus that killed a Vietnamese man in 2004, only produced a satisfactory immune response in volunteers at two doses of 90 micrograms each. That is 12 times what is needed for the annual seasonal flu shot.
"It is a bit of muted good news in that we are going in the right direction, but the sobering news is we have a long way to go," National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci said in a telephone briefing before the findings appeared in the New England Journal of Medicine.
These findings mean there is only enough H5N1 vaccine now in the U.S. stockpile to protect about 4 million Americans in a pandemic, Fauci said. These would likely be key health-care workers and people working to make the vaccine.
snip

Dr. Gregory Poland of the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota noted the antibody response measured in the study does not always protect people from sickness with flu, but rather lowers the risk of death and serious complications.
He said work also is underway to make a vaccine against a second substrain of H5NI that has started to kill people.
http://today.reuters.com/USHome.htm

That sounds like a pretty big hole in the model....

...is that the epidemiological models this is based on start with the assumption that avian flu will jump the species barrier in Asia and arrive in the U.S. via travelers. That is not unlikely-- like all influenzas, this one is concentrated in Asia, along with an immense domestic bird population, and the greatest likelihood of mutation/recombination into a pandemic human strain DOES exist there. But as the avian flu spreads globally via bird migration and transport that likelihood of transmission to humans, and the subsequent development of a pandemic human strain, spreads with it. It could happen in the Middle East, or in Africa, and arrive in the U.S. via Europe or Canada. It might even happen in the U.S. itself. I won't be surprised if infected birds cross the Bering Sea this summer, and if not this summer then another summer soon. Once in North America it will only take one year to spread throughout the hemisphere via migratory fly-ways.

Conversion to a pandemic human transmissible strain is a probabalistic process, and the greater the frequency of encounters between infected birds and humans the greater the overall likelihood of that event taking place, and given the global spread of the parent virus, the greater the likelihood that traditional assumptions of an asian epicenter will be violated.

Does this mean you are coming round to you know who's way of thinking??

HP

:rofl:

This conjures up a funny Beavis and Butthead image-- "heh heh, he said 'recombination.'"