STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 26 April

-lotsa charts-

Is there a reason for the market to no longer be in a "bullish mode?" Well, there are two of them; oil is threatening to break out, and the yield on the 10-year note has already broken above resistance and it is targeting 5.40%-5.45%. However, keep in mind that price is always the final arbitrator in all market conflicts, and if for some reason oil goes up, yields go up, and the SP still goes up, do not argue with it! We would like to remind you how our dear friend and invaluable teacher--the one and only, Mr. Bob Kincheloe--always reminds us to stick with the trend and avoid the temptation to get cute by saying to us--when occasionally we get unduly bearish--''but daddy, it's going up!'"

This week we got the rally, and the price pattern points to another 15-20 points of rally in the SP. However, there are a couple of things that we ought to be aware of: the NYSE McClellan Oscillator has yet to turn positive, and the Quantifiers--although they turned positive--they have yet to make it above 15. Usually such combination indicates a rally that is internally weak, and thus, it can be terminated abruptly. Stay long, but with tight stops below last Thursday's lows.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

8:30 AM Durable Orders Mar
Briefing Forecast 1.5%
Market Expects 1.8%
Prior 2.7%

10:00 AM New Home Sales Mar
Briefing Forecast 1140K
Market Expects 1100K
Prior 1080K

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 04/21
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior -806K

2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book

8:30 AM ET 4/26/06 U.S. MARCH DURABLE GOODS ORDERS BIGGEST GAIN IN 10 MONTHS

8:30 AM ET 4/26/06 U.S. FEB. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS REVISED UP TO 3.4% VS. 2.7%

8:30 AM ET 4/26/06 U.S. MARCH AIRCRAFT ORDERS UP 71%

8:30 AM ET 4/26/06 U.S. MARCH DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EX-TRANSPORTATION UP 2.8%

8:30 AM ET 4/26/06 U.S. MARCH DURABLE GOODS INVENTORIES UP 0.7%

8:30 AM ET 4/26/06 U.S. MARCH DURABLE GOODS SHIPMENTS UP 0.3%

8:30 AM ET 4/26/06 U.S. MARCH CORE CAPITAL EQUIPMENT ORDERS UP 3%

8:30 AM ET 4/26/06 U.S. MARCH DURABLE GOODS ORDERS UP 6.1% V. 2.1% EXPECTED

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BB6321B35%2DA48B%2D432C%2DA607%2D1ACBB4E6AB2B%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Orders for new U.S.-made durable goods increased 6.1% in March, led by strong demand for airplanes, machinery and electronics, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. The increase in new orders was the largest since May 2005 and far exceeded the 2.1% gain expected by economists. The big story in March was continued strength in orders for civilian aircraft, which increased 71% in March after a 60% gain in February. Excluding the 14% rise in transportation goods, new orders rose 2.8% in March, the biggest gain since August. Orders for core capital equipment goods - the best indication of business investment plans - increased 3% in March.

WHEE! Watch bonds and the dollar! Looks like "one and done" is history!

10:00 AM ET 4/26/06 U.S. MARCH NEW HOME SALES UP 13.8% TO 1.21 MILLION

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BB9C41293-88B8-4091-9A2E-AB483696AF5E%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - New home sales unexpected increased by 13.8% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.213 million, the highest level of the year, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday.

The increase more than reversed the 10.9% decline in sales in February. It was far stronger than the mild increase to 1.10 million annualized that was expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

Combined with the small increase reported in existing home sales on Tuesday, the report shows the housing market was much stronger in March than anyone had reason to believe. Other housing market indicators, including mortgage applications, housing starts and builders' sentiment, are pointing to a softer housing market.

The strength in home sales, if it persists, could keep the economy growing faster than the Federal Reserve wants and could lead to higher interest rates than now expected.

New home sales are down 8.2% year-to-date.

The government cautions, however, that its housing data are subject to large sampling and other statistical errors. The margin of error is so large, in fact, that the government cannot say with confidence that sales rose at all in March.

...more...

I smell a rat.

are up 72% at the same time new home sales show a big increase. How does something like that happen?

Every thing is up up up! this week it seems.

Hubby and I go out and look at homes. We have seem more signs on the yards for longer periods of time. New subdivisions are slow to fill up. Apartment vacancies are down. Homebuilders in our area are running infomercials. The list runs on. Here in Houston, we have been in a slow down for a while and they are starting to reduce prices.

10:30 AM ET 4/26/06 U.S. CRUDE SUPPLY DOWN 200,000 BRLS LAST WEEK: ENERGY DEPT

10:30 AM ET 4/26/06 U.S. DISTILLATE SUPPLY UP 1 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

10:30 AM ET 4/26/06 U.S. GASOLINE SUPPLY FALLS FOR AN EIGHTH WEEK: ENERGY DEPT

10:30 AM ET 4/26/06 U.S. GASOLINE SUPPLY DOWN 1.9 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BCB744D03%2D2815%2D4E29%2D8449%2D6D264DBF01D0%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Energy Department said motor gasoline inventories fell 1.9 million barrels for the week ended April 21 to total 200.6 million. Supplies have lost a total of 25.3 million barrels in eight weeks and are 5.6% below the year-ago level, the government data showed. Crude stocks fell 200,000 barrels to total 345 million barrels -- 5.6% above the year-ago level. Distillate supplies rose 1 million barrels to 115.6 million. They're 10.6% above the year-ago level. June crude fell 48 cents to $72.40 a barrel. May unleaded gas rose 0.09 cent to $2.13 a gallon and May heating oil shed 1.01 cents to $2.048 a gallon.

2:00 PM ET 4/26/06 FED SAYS PRICE HIKES HAVE NOT INTENSIFIED SINCE MARCH

2:00 PM ET 4/26/06 FED SAYS MOST FACTORY REPORTS REMAIN 'POSITIVE'

2:00 PM ET 4/26/06 FED BEIGE BOOK SEES TIGHT LABOR MARKETS FOR SKILLED WORKERS

2:00 PM ET 4/26/06 FED BEIGE BOOK SAYS FIRMS STILL HAVE TROUBLE RAISING PRICES

2:00 PM ET 4/26/06 MOST FED BANKS REPORT COOLING IN RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

2:00 PM ET 4/26/06 ELEVEN OUT OF 12 FED BANKS REPORT GROWTH THROUGH MID-APRIL

2:00 PM ET 4/26/06 FED BEIGE BOOK FINDS STEADY GROWTH, COOLING HOUSING MARKET

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B2C5115E3-946C-4E7C-9DCF-2486D627FF90%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Although Federal Reserve forecasters expect the economy to slow later this year, the message from a Fed survey of economic conditions through mid-April is "not yet."

Only the New York region out of 12 Fed districts reported the rate of growth "may have slipped a bit," through mid-April, according to the Fed's Beige Book report on economic conditions released on Wednesday.

Most of the other districts reported growth continued to expand, although a different rates. Three Fed districts -- Minneapolis, Kansas City and San Francisco -- reported "solid" growth, while others described the rate of growth as "modest" and "steady."

The picture that emerges of the economy is not much different than the last beige book report released in mid-March, when the Fed found steady, unspectacular growth. See full story.

In the roughly five weeks since the last report, the Fed found that factory activity continued at a steady, positive, pace and retail sales were improving, although the late Easter holiday was making comparisons difficult.

Auto sales were mixed across the country, with sales of imports and used cars stronger than new domestic vehicles.

Most Fed districts reported cooling residential real estate markets. Home price gains, when measured on a year-over-year basis, were lower than in previous periods.

...more...

SINGAPORE - Crude oil prices were steady Wednesday as market participants awaited the release of a weekly U.S. petroleum supply snapshot, and after the Bush administration announced moves aimed at easing a fuel supply crunch.

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Gasoline futures inched up fractionally to $2.1300 a gallon, while heating oil fell marginally to $2.0580 a gallon. Natural gas declined 0.9 cent to $7.245 per 1,000 cubic feet.

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The moves came as retail regular gasoline prices in the U.S. were reported by the American Automobile Association to be near $2.92 a gallon, about 32 percent above year-ago levels, a month before the Memorial Day holiday, which traditionally kicks off the summer driving season, when demand peaks.

Concerns about gasoline supplies in the U.S. ahead of the summer have been one of the various factors keeping a high floor under crude oil prices, which are 33 percent higher than a year ago.

more

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So what can the US do? That's the question roiling Washington right now. Congress is promising probes, hearings, and maybe new laws reining in windfall profits. Some lawmakers are talking about rebate checks for families. Others are calling for a lower federal gasoline tax.

Tuesday, President Bush waded into the issue, saying the administration would not tolerate "manipulation" of gasoline prices. He also ordered a temporary halt to filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to relieve pressure on crude oil prices.

All the rhetoric will certainly resonate with many Americans, worried or angry about the steep rise in prices this spring. But experts and even members of Congress concede that the federal government has limited ability to push prices down, at least in the short term.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0426/p01s04-uspo.html

SACRAMENTO — As the statewide average price for regular gasoline passed $3 a gallon Monday, politicians and grass-roots activists pumped up their calls for new taxes on companies that produce or refine oil in California.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ordered the California Energy Commission to investigate possible gouging by gasoline refiners, wholesalers and retailers.

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Also Monday, the chairman of the Assembly Revenue and Taxation Committee won a first vote on his latest proposal to slap a 2% surtax on so-called windfall profits from petroleum producing, refining and sales activities.

The bill garnered the minimum four votes needed to move to its next committee.

more

WASHINGTON - High gasoline costs and the political fallout they may create are producing a flurry of proposals from both Republicans and Democrats aimed at soothing motorists' anger.

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Bush also urged Congress to repeal $2 billion in oil industry tax breaks over 10 years, declaring, "Taxpayers don't need to be paying for certain of these expenses on behalf of the energy companies."

Democrats quickly countered with their own proposals, including a renewed call for taxes on oil industry profits and for a 60-day "holiday" from the 18.4 cent a gallon federal gasoline tax.

Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., said the tax suspension would provide "immediate relief" of $100 million a day to motorists, although critics argued it also would increase the federal deficit unless Congress found new revenue. Menendez's proposals would make up the shortfall by new taxes on oil companies.

more

President Bush's suspension of deliveries to petroleum reserves offers temporary relief, but dealers focus attention on supply disruptions, inventories.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/26/markets/oil.reut/?cnn=yes

TOKYO (Reuters) - Oil clawed back above $73 on Wednesday as dealers shrugged off a U.S. plan to suspend crude deliveries to the emergency reserve, focusing on potential supply disruptions and expected falls in stocks in the United States.

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Prices recovered despite a plan by U.S. President Bush plan to bring down soaring oil, including a call for a crackdown on price gouging and a temporary halt to deliveries to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

Analysts, however, were unimpressed by the move, which would only add about a third of 1 percent of daily U.S. crude demand to a market in which commercial inventories are already robust.

"Delays into the SPR are not the be all and end all -- crude is not the problem," said a dealer at a bank in New York. "Maybe we've got a bit of alleviation on gasoline but all the underlying geopolitical factors are still there."

snip>

Officials have said Tehran will not use its oil as a political weapon, but traders are still fearful the dispute could hit exports from the world's fourth-largest suppliers.

Also limiting losses, ExxonMobil (Research) boosted security at its 420,000-bpd Qua Iboe oil export terminal in Nigeria on Tuesday due to the threat of attack by militants.

more....

All we are say-ay-ay-ay-ing, is give peace a chance

10:04 AM ET 4/26/06 JUNE CRUDE FALLS 13C TO $72.75/BRL AHEAD OF U.S. SUPPLY DATA

10:04 AM ET 4/26/06 MAY NATURAL GAS DOWN 3.4C AT $7.22/MLN BTUS

10:04 AM ET 4/26/06 JUNE NATURAL GAS FALLS 3C TO $7.425/MLN BTUS

2:54 PM ET 4/26/06 CRUDE FUTURES CLOSE DOWN 95C AT $71.93 A BARREL

3:08 PM ET 4/26/06 GASOLINE FUTURES CLOSE UP 0.4C AT $2.1335 A GALLON

Petrol is the new indispensable staple and the $3 gallon is to America what the over-priced potato once was to Ireland.

A customer looks at a gas pump where the prices have climbed over three dollars per gallon
Americans are very sensitive to the cost of filling up
It is causing a torrent of suffering and heartache.

Bewailed in country songs and popular ballads, it is forcing ordinary people to do extraordinary things - like car pooling, riding the bike to work, selling their second SUV, or doing a "walk-thru" at their local burger joint instead of a "drive-thru".

It is even forcing a former oilman from a family of oilmen to wax lyrical about ethanol.

Yes, George W Bush, the self confessed oil addict-in-chief, who was suckled on Four-Star Texaco, can't stop talking about renewable fuels like ethanol, prairie grass and cow manure.

Unfortunately he does so with the same faltering enthusiasm that a former smoker enthuses about nicotine patches - or, for that matter a former alcoholic about alcohol-free lager and wine gums.

The passion is lacking.


From BBC-news:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4944926.stm

WASHINGTON - Sales of previously owned homes edged up in March, but the backlog of unsold homes still hit a record high, raising concerns that the once-booming housing market could be in for a rougher landing than expected.

The National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday that sales of existing homes advanced by a tiny 0.3 percent in March compared with February, rising to a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 6.92 million units.

The March increase followed a bigger 5.1 percent jump in February, which had been boosted by milder than normal weather this winter. Those gains followed five consecutive monthly declines in sales.

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The pace of existing home sales in the United States rose to a 6.92 million-unit rate in March from February's downwardly revised 6.90 million-unit pace

So, it's only "up" because they revised last month "down"? But, hey, makes for a great headline, huh? "Home Sales Up." Wow, I guess there's nothing to worry about, huh?

Things that make you go hmmm...

**edited to fix formatting**

:hi:

TOKYO - Honda more than doubled its net profit for the January-March quarter from a year ago as soaring vehicle sales in Asia and Europe offset a decline in Japan.

Honda Motor Co., Japan's No. 3 automaker that makes the Accord compact car and Odyssey minivan, said Wednesday it racked up 219.5 billion yen ($1.9 billion; euro1.5 billion) in profit for the quarter ended March 31 — a record quarterly profit for Honda and dramatically higher than the 94 billion yen profit marked the same period the previous year.

Quarterly sales jumped 20.6 percent to 2.83 trillion yen ($24.7 billion) from 2.35 trillion yen the same period last year. Although Honda vehicle sales slipped in Japan, they surged in the rest of Asia and in Europe. They also rose in North America.

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It's the slow season for the laundromat in tiny Milford, Pa., yet owner Darryl Wood has raised the price of a wash by 50 cents this year, to $2.50. The reason? Electric rates have more than doubled since January, threatening to close the lid on a business his family has run for decades.

"I've already seen an electric bill higher than anything that I've ever gotten," he says. "I thought deregulation would bring rates down. Now, I'm just hoping we can hang on."

His ordeal reflects the fresh dismay many consumers are feeling about the deregulation of the electric utility industry. When deregulation was implemented in the 1990s, supporters said it would drive rates down through competition.

But data so far suggest that rates in deregulated states are rising faster than those in regulated states. That trend could expand as caps on retail electric rates, which have held prices down, are lifted in at least six deregulated states this year.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0425/p02s01-usec.html

have to run - but I would think that this item is important enough for its own thread?

Thanks, as always for this early morning thread and news items! :hi:

to one of these days.

Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room

http://www.timeout.com/film/82628.html

America! How big is your crack pipe, and how often do you smoke it? When you have aggressions, do you wield your crack pipe as a weapon? Can you keep one hand on the wheel of your Hummer while lighting your crack pipe? Do you donate crack to the Republican National Committee? When you sell crack to children, do you say, ‘This crack is a blessing from our Lord Jesus Christ’ or do you say ‘The free market gave us this crack’ or do you say ‘Our Lord Jesus Christ went personally to the free market and got this crack for us to enjoy, so you best smoke it but good’?

The last five-and-a-quarter years have been some of the most cracktastic in American history, which is good if you’re a corporate CEO or a hedge-fund manager or a maker of muckraking digital-video documentaries and very, very bad if you are anyone else. One of the most stupendously what-the-fuck episodes of the new Gilded Age was the implosion of the Houston-based Enron Corporation in late 2001 (somewhat obscured at the time by the smoke still rising from lower Manhattan). Okay, so the energy company headed by Jeffrey Skilling and President Bush’s close personal friend Kenneth Lay – known as ‘Kenny Boy’ to bosom buddy Dubya – made its cash from fraud (not crack!); it traded in fantasy futures, posted billions in mirage profits, reaped hundreds of millions in stock windfalls for its top executives, and counted 20,000 penniless employees and the state of California among its corporate-rape victims by the time it declared bankruptcy toward the close of Bush’s first year in office.

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The lay viewer– which is to say, the non-user of crack – might remain confused as to how Skilling, Kenny Boy, and their ilk could pocket so much cash out of thin air. But this unfussy talking-heads doc is nonetheless a solid primer, and when it delves into California’s energy crisis of 2000-2001, it provides a useful reminder of how the hell the Austrian-born star of ‘Conan the Destroyer’ became governor of the world’s sixth-largest economy. The die was cast when previous governor Gray Davis became the fall guy for the emergency, after amoral Enron traders (caught on tape) worked to shut down perfectly functional plants, create blackouts, and thus artificially ratchet up prices. Meanwhile, the trials of Skilling and Kenny Boy commenced this past January, and Skilling has optimistically pled innocent to all charges. Hey Jeff, pass that crack pipe!

bit more...

:donut: and lurkers. Ozy, you might consider posting this as a seperate thread. The Texas market is expected to become deregulated. If it follows as other markets have... we will see energy bills shoot through the roof. There is a link on the city web page where one can choose an energy plan. Hopefully, you can lock in a good rate. Some folks that don't sign up may be facing 100% increase. (Say...wait a minute, weren't the rates suppose to go down in a free market). Another GOP fallacy shot down. The GOP are going to lose Texas in a major way if this continues.

Best Enron incident...a teenage heckler shout to Kenny boy..."You're going to need to learn to ask fries or tater tots with that order".

to find service providers in your area
www.houstonconsumerschoice.com

the PUC
www.powertochoose.org


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

Hawks eat doves, and the "one and done crowd" on Wall Street ate some crow Tuesday after consumer confidence and key housing numbers came in much better than expected. The reports suggest the "data-dependent" Federal Reserve will continue raising its fed funds rate beyond May 10, and sent U.S. stock and Treasury markets down in tandem.

Odds that the Fed will raise the fed funds rate to 5.25% in June rose to 52% Tuesday, up from 42% Monday; odds the rate will go to 5.25% by August have climbed to 85% from 72% Monday, according to Miller Tabak.

"If the Fed isn't happy, the market isn't happy," said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers.

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"The market is on a knife edge right now because it has this tremendous hope that it will live in a perfect environment where the Fed stops, but the economy is still strong enough that companies will still report strong earnings," said Milton Ezrati, partner and senior economic strategist at Lord Abbett.

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/10281517.html

And we all know that hope is not a plan.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/25/AR2006042501293.html

Home sales are improving and consumer confidence is the best it's been in four years, but Wall Street didn't celebrate today.

Stock prices fell and interest rates on bonds took their biggest jump since last July as traders looked at the fine print in the two reports and didn't like what they saw.

While sales of existing homes grew after three, down months in a row, the number of people putting their houses up for sale also grew.

The bottom line is that the backlog of unsold houses is growing. At the rate they're selling now, it would take almost five months to move all the homes that are on the market--and that's if no new homes are listed for sale.

The consumer confidence report from the Conference Board was deemed worrisome for other reasons--exhuberent consumers threaten to fuel inflation.

more...

so I guess I can stop buying lotto tickets as a retirement plan, right Ozy. I think my fall back plan of committing a federal white collar crime might be a viable option. Three hots and a cot and medical care sound good to me.

Richard Daughty, the angriest guy in economics -- World News Trust

I am really, really getting scared here. This week, I don't know what scares me most; the Federal Reserve increasing Total Fed Credit (which is the legendary "money from thin air" that banks use to make credit, which gets borrowed, which turns it into money, which increases the money supply, which makes prices go up) by another $5.9 billion, or that the National Debt has suddenly, inexplicably, declined by a lot. Weird! In fact, the National Debt has literally collapsed $58 billion in less than two weeks! Unprecedented!

I have decided that I don't care which one scares me the most, as either of them is enough to give me the Screaming Mogambo Willies (SMW), and now all I care about is getting my fat, frantic fanny out to the Mogambo Bunker Of Safety (MBOS) in hopes of saving myself. And yes, it is too bad about the wife and kids, but they can't say I never warned them about dawdling. Locked safely inside, I have time to ponder that the Fed increasing Total Fed Credit is easily explainable; the Federal Reserve wants to create more money, which drives down interest rates. That's all those buttheads ever do.

But it is the drop in the National Debt, on the other hand, that has turned my eyes into mere slits of suspicion and panic. My brain swirls as I ponder the Mogambo Question Of The Day (MQOTD), "If debt is going down while spending is going up, then where in the hell is all of the money coming from?" This is too, too, too, too weird for me!

This is about as weird as this week's installment of One Interesting Mogambo Statistic (OIMS), which is that savings and other deposits at the banks are on track to register what looks to be their biggest (by far) one-month gain in history; up $125 billion in the last three weeks! Wowee! One huge whopping percent of total United States Gross Domestic Product has appeared, like magic, as savings and "other deposits" in the banks! In one month! Like I said, weird!

more

http://worldnewstrust.org/modules/AMS/article.php?storyid=3317

I always forget to list him as a favorite.

Tax revenues coming in from April 15?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 87.42 Change -0.02 (-0.02%)

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: Durable Goods Key US Data

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__Durable_Goods_1146001045276.html

US Durable Goods (MAR) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)

Consensus: 1.6%

Previous: 2.7%

Outlook: Orders for big-ticketed goods should grow 1.6% last month according to economists’ consensus. Bookings for goods that last for three years or longer could once again be the product of volatility in transportation items. After February’s strong increase in commercial aircraft orders, a sharp rebound to normalcy may be in order. Purchasing managers at airliners who responded to fuel prices in February likely did the same in March. Crude oil, which fell significantly in the previous month, recovered much of its lost ground in March as geo-political tensions escalated. Similarly, orders for automobile and auto parts could be affected by gasoline prices. Gas prices reached a 9-month low in February after a momentous decline, however much of these losses were quickly recovered the following month in line with other energy products. The manufacturing sector has arguably been the weakest over the past few years. Consequently, if a recovery in orders for durable goods can materialize despite higher energy prices, the Federal Open Market Committee would have better scope to continue its hawkish interest rate regime with businesses and consumers taking the growing costs in stride.

Previous: Orders to US factories for durable goods rose to a three-month high 2.7% in February led by hot demand for commercial aircraft. Overall transportation orders rose 13.4%. Providing the largest contribution to the overall figure were bookings for civilian-carrying aircraft, which rose a solid 52.5% for the month as the airline industry witnessed a sizable 10% drop in the price of light crude oil. Tempering aircraft’s strong growth however were orders automobile orders. Vehicle bookings dropped 3.3% in February following a 3.2% contraction as higher gas prices and intensifying global competition cut into sales at showrooms. Excluding transportation altogether, the durable goods measure fell 1.3% for the month of February, its worst posting since July. As the core durable goods measure continues to soften, Federal monetary policy makers were met with yet another reason to rethink their aggressive policy of raising over night borrowing rates.

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US Dollar Prepares for Battle

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/US_Dollar_Prepares_for_Battle_1146046703731.html

EUR/USD – EUR/USD gained yet again and bulls have tried with all their might to hold 1.2400. The last two day’s highs have been rejected by the long term trendline that begins at the 1.3666 high on 12/30/2004 and the path of least resistance remains sideways/down until a break of the year + line. As mentioned yesterday, longer term bullish signals continue to accumulate as the 50 day SMA just crossed above the 200 day SMA for the first time since 10/18/2004 at 1.2493. However, hourly oscillators are sloping down from overbought levels favoring a contra move in the short term. Support comes in at the confluence of the 4/6 high / yesterday’s low / 23.6% fibo of 1.2068-1.2439 at 1.2351. A break below there targets the 4/24 low at 1.2332 as well as a test of the 38.2% fibo at the psychological 1.2300.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Recent Yen strength consolidated yesterday and formed an inside day outside of the lower Bollinger band on the daily, suggesting a possible short term reversal. Hourly MACD has gradually moved to its zero line but momentum is slowing. Resistance sits just above at the 23.6% fibo of 118.82-114.22 at 115.31 with the 200 day SMA at 115.50. A daily close below the 4/24 low at 114.24 is required to confirm a continuation of weakness towards the 1/12 low at 113.41.

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TOKYO — The dollar gained slightly against the yen Wednesday in Asia as Japanese trust funds and importers bought the American currency, but its rise was limited amid focus on the call by G-7 finance officials to rectify U.S. imbalances.

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Traders said Japanese trust funds and importers vigorously bought dollars at high-114 yen levels. These purchases eventually triggered some stop-loss-related buying of U.S. and European hedge funds, pushing the currency to an intraday high of 115.19 yen.

But because market players are now preoccupied by the Group of Seven finance ministers' calls for the need to rectify the U.S. current account deficit, pessimism toward the dollar will remain, traders said. Many expect the dollar to soon resume its downtrend against the yen and head for 113.41 yen, the lowest level this year.

"The dollar-bearish sentiment is fairly strong and will likely remain so in the coming weeks," said Minoru Shioiri, senior manager of foreign exchange at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.

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eta link
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/3820492.html

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/5cefbb58-d511-11da-93bc-0000779e2340.html

The US dollar strengthened against Asian currencies for a second straight day in European morning trade on Wednesday amid further signs that Asian nations are unwilling to play ball with the G7 group of major industrial countries.

Most Asian currencies rallied on Monday after the G7 reiterated its call for emerging Asia to allow greater currency flexibility in order to help reduce global economic imbalances, principally the vast US current account deficit.

However Asian currencies handed back some of these gains on Tuesday as a swathe of regional nations intervened either verbally or physically to stem currency strength, and the trend continued on Wednesday.

The Chinese renminbi, the prime target of the G7’s ire and heavily managed by Beijing, ended exchange trading a fraction lower at Rmb8.0175 to the dollar. Indeed, the currency has actually now weakened during April, having started the month at Rmb8.0155 to the dollar, despite the greenback’s weakness against currencies such as the euro, yen and South Korean won this month.

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hmmm.... 14 years ago.... Oh, yeah! That was Dimson's Poppy!

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-26T130856Z_01_TOR000942_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-CANADA-DOLLAR-URGENT.XML

TORONTO, April 26 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar hit a new 14-year high versus the U.S. currency on Wednesday, bolstered by hopes of another Bank of Canada rate hike next month, and shrugging off a surge in U.S. durable goods orders.

The currency touched C$1.1285 to the U.S. dollar, or 88.61 U.S. cents, surpassing its previous high of C$1.1299, or 88.50 U.S. cents, hit in early March.

On Tuesday, the central bank lifted its trendsetting overnight rate by a quarter-percentage point to 4 percent. The rate hike was accompanied by a statement that set the stage for another increase in May.

Last trade 87.36 Change -0.08 (-0.09%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 87.45

Previous Close 87.44 High 87.66

Low 87.24 2006-04-26 10:03:01, 30 min delay

http://www.forextv.com/FT/Text/ShowStory.jsp?id=7480

The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2385 level and was capped around the $ 1.2435 level. The common currency moved to intraday lows after the release of stronger-than-expected March U.S. durable goods orders that saw March headline durable goods orders increase 6.1% and up 2.8% on an ex-transportation basis, the largest climb since August.

These data were better-than-expected and follow yesterday’s stellar U.S. economic data that saw March existing home sales climb 0.3% and April consumer confidence print at 109.6, up from March’s 107.5 tally and the strongest showing in almost four years. The big question in the U.S. remains the 10 May Federal Open Market Committee meeting and whether or not Fed policymakers will lift the federal funds target rate by +25bps to 5.00%.

In the wake of the recent positive U.S. economic data that have been released, the fed funds futures market is now pricing in about an 82% chance the FOMC will move on 10 May, and about a 76% chance the Fed will move an additional 25bps at the end-of-June FOMC meeting.

more...

http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayArticle.php?id=682

Good day... No... I'm not talking about myself! HAHAHA! The slow, steady drip that I'm talking about is the euro's rise vs. the dollar so far in 2006... It's been so slow that before you know it the euro has gained almost 5% vs. the dollar this year! The poor beleaguered euro, which last year had to combat an seemingly endless summer of Fed increases, a "No" vote on the EU Constitution by France, and all that negative talk about how the European Union was going to fall apart...

But guess what? Ahhh grasshopper, that's right... The euro has put 100 miles of desert between what happened last summer and what's going on today... Much like Superman standing on a rock high above all the commotion below... The euro stands strong once again! Germany's economy has turned an about face, and is leading the Eurozone out of the darkness that fell over them for 2005...

snip>

I'm sure that the euro's potential gain is going to remain slow and steady... That is, until we know for sure that the Fed Reserve has put the dust covers back on the rate hike machine!

So... We've got the Asian currencies playing ball with the European currencies now, eh? That does not spell good times or even "Dyn-o-mite" for the dollar... But... Don't despair, dollar bulls... This is what the doctor ordered! A case of dollar depreciation especially vs. the Asian currencies to correct the global imbalances... And you won't get hurt, you dollar bulls, as long as you scrap that "dollar bull" mantra and come on over to the (Oh, I wanted to say "dark side" there, but thought some would take it as something evil) diversification crowd!

snip>

"As global real interest rates converge, the export potential of comparative economies should begin to dominate exchange values and it is there, of course, where the U.S. is so critically deficient. Japan, as we all know, is an export powerhouse. Less well known is the ongoing ability of Germany as the center of Euroland to command global market share. The ascendancy of China's production for export is of course unquestionable. That leaves the U.S. with its increasingly hollowed out manufacturing core as the near certain loser in currency valuations going forward. To be blunt, the dollar must go down as it loses its carry."

more...

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Laird/apr262006.html

On May 5, 2004, I wrote an article entitled Mexican Stand-off. In it, I outlined the likelihood that foreign governments and institutional investors everywhere would reach a point of fleeing the US dollar. We may be looking at this situation quite soon.

The way it would happen would be that, many holders of large USD positions would be facing each other, waiting to see who pulls the trigger on the USD. Then all would fire at once, blasting each other with their USD asset sales, trying to salvage what remained of the real value of their US treasuries, US stocks, US bonds.

I surmised that, with the super fast electronic markets we have now, that, the USD could collapse in a matter of hours, not days or weeks. The idea that circuit breakers would stop this baby would probably fail because either the markets would just overrun them, or ‘bum rush’ them, or, there would be a week of limit down days, followed by another week of limit down days. End result? Possibly a complete or almost complete USD crash.

In such a scenario, I surmise that only paid off real assets will survive. At the inception of such a collapse, gold and other precious metals would become essentially unavailable, and off market. The USD would crash so fast that no one would take any amount of dollars for metal until either the USD stabilized at some much lower rate, or, disintegrated into oblivion.

If you own a paid off house, a paid off car, a few hundred ounces of gold and silver, they are all paid off, and are not USD assets. In these positions, you are insulated from a USD collapse, at least as far as these paid off assets are concerned.

more...

Last trade 87.25 Change -0.19 (-0.22%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 87.45

Previous Close 87.44 High 87.66

Low 87.11 2006-04-26 14:34:18, 30 min delay

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/0a8e9816-d48a-11da-a357-0000779e2340.html

The volume of loans to fund acquisitions have this year exceeded the total amount of loans for refinancings, reversing the trend from last year, new figures show.

The volume of loans to fund takeovers has soared 91 per cent to $347bn in the year to date, compared with the same period last year, data from Dealogic, the information provider, show.

The figures have also been boosted by industry consolidation and by private equity companies, which fund leveraged buyouts in the debt markets.

snip>

The figures confirm how the business and credit cycle has turned. After spending the past few years reducing leverage and overall debt, companies have started to focus on growing their business, via takeovers or through organic expansion.

snip>

The US was the biggest market for takeover-related loans, accounting for 43 per cent of total borrowing, followed by Germany, which accounted for 27 per cent of the global market. Blockbuster takeovers such as Bayer’s bid for Schering, its domestic peer, boosted borrowing volumes this year.


more...

There's *some* expansion here in town but it's not a lot and it's really just one or two developments catching up with the recent expansion in residential housing along the edges of suburbia.



Edit: Oh, aircraft orders are up? Who's buying them? US airlines have scaled back flights.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=anWSljVKcNeE&refer=us

April 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell for a second day after government reports showed orders for durable goods and new home sales rose more than forecast, bolstering speculation the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates.

Traders increased bets the central bank will lift its target rate two more times, to 5.25 from 4.75 percent, by July after increasing it 15 times since mid-2004. The slump pushed yields higher before the Treasury's sale of $36 billion in two- and five-year notes today and tomorrow.

``We were a little bit aggressive too early, trying to say the Fed is done,'' said Ted Ake, head of U.S. Treasury trading in New York at Mizuho Securities USA Inc., one of the 22 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade directly with the Fed. ``Now the data is continuing to show some strength.''

more...



Bernanke expected to say data will drive Fed
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyid=2006-04-26T063741Z_01_N25193069_RTRUKOC_0_US-ECONOMY-BERNANKE.xml

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke goes before Congress on Thursday with the delicate task of explaining the central bank's plans for bringing a 22- month credit-tightening campaign to an end.

Analysts say his bottom line will be that incoming data will dictate the Fed's course.

While the central bank expects the economy to hew to a sustainable path in the months ahead, Bernanke seems certain to stress his enmity for inflation and emphasize that officials will do what is needed to keep it contained.

snip>

Financial markets widely expect the Fed to raise rates yet again at its upcoming policy meeting on May 10, but are closely divided on whether another increase will follow at the subsequent meeting in late June. They will be eyeing Bernanke's testimony closely for clues on the Fed's intentions.

"It seems unlikely that he would say anything that would be intended to greatly alter expectations," Prell said. "I don't see what the market has priced in now, in terms of near-term rate actions, to be at odds with the general drift of policy-makers' thinking."

snip>

"Chairman Bernanke has no objection if the market also concludes that the Fed will pause soon, but he'll want to make it clear that the Fed has made no actual commitment to stop," he said.

more...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060426/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_wellpoint

INDIANAPOLIS - WellPoint Inc., the nation's largest health insurer, said Wednesday its first-quarter net income grew 20 percent on a leap in premiums and administrative fees.

For the quarter ended March 31, net income was $731.8 million, or $1.09 per share, compared with $611.7 million, or 98 cents per share, a year earlier. The latest quarter included 4 cents per share in stock-option costs and net realized investment losses of 1 cent per share, while the prior-year quarter included tax benefits of about 4 cents per share.

Revenue climbed 26 percent to $13.61 billion, as premium revenue was up 26 percent and administrative fees rose 34 percent.

On average, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial forecast a quarterly profit of $1.07 per share, including stock-option expenses, and revenue of $13.85 billion.

Medical enrollment totaled 34.2 million members at March 31, an increase of more than 5.6 million members from 28.5 million a year earlier, including approximately 4.8 million members acquired through the WellChoice transaction. WellPoint completed the purchase of WellChoice in December.

"Our first-quarter results build upon the exceptional performance we achieved last year and establish a strong foundation for yet another successful year of growth going forward," said Larry C. Glasscock, chairman, president and chief executive of WellPoint.

...more...

"Mission Accomplished!" for the insurance lobbyists that wrote the Medicare Reform bill that the GOPpiggies pushed through on lies and bogus numbers.

I don't know that this woman has her insurance with Wellpoint, but that should not matter. She is insured and is not braindead. This is a travesty.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2248261

http://www.northcountrygazette.org/articles/042406HoustonLife.html

HOUSTON---The countdown has begun on the life of Andrea Clark, a patient at St. Luke's Hospital.

Six days left.

No, she's not terminal, her family says and she's not brain dead. Her sisters say that she wants to live. The Houston hospital is going to unilaterally remove a woman from life support, apparently based on the decision of a lone physician even though her family wants her to continue to receive care.

The central issue in the Andrea Clark case is the same as that in the Terri Schindler Schiavo case, whether the state should be able to sanction the removal of a human being from life support.

What's even more significant in the Clark case is that the Texas bill that allows health care providers to end a human life despite the wishes of the patient and the patient's family was signed into law in 1999 by President George W. Bush as Texas Governor. However, in 2005, he rushed back to the White House from Easter vacation to sign a bill rushed through Congress which was designed to save the life of Terri Schiavo because of his "presumption in favor of life".

<snip>

"Andrea, when she is not medicated into unconsciousness (and even when she is, and the medication has worn off to some degree) is aware and cognizant", her sister said. "She has suffered no brain damage to the parts of her brain responsible for thought and reason or speech. She has only suffered loss of some motor control. The reason that the physician gave to medicate her so much is that she is suffering from intractable pain in the sacral region (in other words, she has a bedsore that causes her pain). This is not reason enough, in our books, and we are trying, as we speak, to get Andrea's medication lowered so that she can speak to us.

...more...

of help from DUers getting the word out over the weekend. I never did hear how many showed up for the protest outside of the hospital...that was her sister's original request. But you know how the great minds of DUers are - recommendations, calls for letters and appeals, fresh ideas, etc. - lots of support from those who couldn't meet her original request.

9:13 AM ET 4/26/06
BUSH INTRODUCES TONY SNOW AS NEW PRESS SECRETARY

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2245552&mesg_id=2245552

all press releases and press conferences will be referred to as Snow Jobs.

on the settee. We will experience news 'whiteouts'. Hey, there is a reason it is called the White House.

Dow 11,301.02 +17.77 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,333.68 +3.38 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,303.62 +1.88 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 5.107 +0.36 (+0.71%)

NYSE Volume 29,110,000
Nasdaq Volume 44,489,000

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/manufacturing/2006-04-25-copper-invest-usat_x.htm

If you want to invest in soaring metals prices, ask yourself a simple question: Do you feel lucky?

Analysts fret that the rise in copper, zinc and other metals is overdone, and that the chart of copper prices looks suspiciously like a chart of Internet stocks from those bubbly days of 1999.

"Yes, this is a speculative craze," says Richard Asplund, chief economist for the Commodity Research Bureau. "But that doesn't mean it can't keep going."

Huge demand from China and other countries has pushed up prices for base metals: copper, zinc, aluminum, lead.

more...

Here it comes! There was an article last week that said there would be a lot of "Big investors diving into metals - but should you" type of stories.

do you think the market is hype at that point? What about gold and silver? In your opinions-do you think it is still worth it to get into it if they are starting to hype it up like this? What have you done. This run up has been most interesting.

(worthless to all but me)...

if someone doesn't think that the gov't creating $2B-$3B a day will make the price of commodities (gold, silver, oil, cotton, pork bellies, lollipops) go up, well, they are fooling themselves. And when the economy really starts to slow, and "helicopter ben" needs to prop up the real estate and equities markets and puts that printing press into overdrive...well, i'm just sayin'.

What I find interesting is the IMF is about to go through some "self-imposed" dramatic changes - the kind they normally only do after a currency crisis. It seems to me they are all in pre-emptive mode, and that worries me - A LOT.

I tend to blow off most of the Wall Streeters - I mean, these are the guys who claimed the NAS bubble was "different this time". They tend to love speculative bubbles and don't usually warn against them - yet here they are.

I don't think they are trying to be malicious - I think they are truely confused. They have been brought up to believe gold is a barbaric relic - just another commodity. Many haven't lived through a commodity bull (young whipper-snappers). They have been taught to look to government reports to determine inflation and to discredit gold completely. That was probably true when there was "confidence" in currencies in general. I see that confidence beginning to wane, and I think the IMF sees it too. Will they be successful in attempting to save this current monetary system? I don't know and the idea of Wolfowitz heading up the World Bank doesn't exactly give me warm fuzzies these days.


Found this, for what it's worth - http://www.kitco.com/ind/GoldReport/apr262006.html

What Exactly is Going on with Gold?

What exactly is going on with gold? "Despite strong seasonal headwinds, gold has managed to hold its own, and even forge ahead" said the headline of the April issue of Gold Newsletter, one of the oldest and most respected precious metals and mining stock advisories in the world. The Gold Report recently had an opportunity to talk with Brien Lundin, Gold Newsletter's editor, who gives us his perspective on what's in store for gold, and the factors influencing its meteoric rise.

The Gold Report (TGR): Brien, in your April newsletter you say, "In my view it would take a widely sustained and recognized economic trend to push gold above its $572 resistance and toward the next major goal of $600." Let's start with an update on your view on what gold has to do to be able to stay above $600.

BL: Well, actually, in the April issue, I said that the ideal trend for gold would be dollar weakness, and there were some signs that that trend was starting to take root. And since we published those views, we’ve actually gotten confirmation of that trend. The euro passed a key inflection point at $1.20 and is rising. I think we’ve seen in this the beginnings of another long-term decline in the dollar. Over the past 12 months, the dollar was strengthening. The euro and dollar handed the lead back and forth, but now the euro is strengthening against the dollar. And in fact, the dollar is weakening against most of the world’s major currencies.

What’s interesting about this time is gold is rising in terms of all currencies. It isn’t trading in lock-step with the euro as it did for the first few years of this bull market. It’s actually accelerating to the upside in terms of all currencies, which is a sign that investors are not anti-dollar; they’re not anti-euro; they’re anti-currency. And gold has emerged as the currency of choice.

more...

11:47 AM ET 4/26/06 JUNE GOLD CLIMBS $7.60 TO $641.70/OZ AFTER A $642.90 HIGH

11:47 AM ET 4/26/06 MAY SILVER UP 25C AT $12.81/OZ; JULY SILVER UP 23C AT $12.91

11:47 AM ET 4/26/06 JULY COPPER UP 2.85C AT $3.30/LB AFTER A RECORD $3.32

The World is Uniting Against the Bush Imperium

http://worldnewstrust.org/modules/AMS/article.php?storyid=3314

Is the United States a superpower? I think not. Consider these facts:

The financial position of the United States has declined dramatically. The United States is heavily indebted, both government and consumers. The U.S. trade deficit both in absolute size and as a percentage of GDP is unprecedented, reaching more than $800 billion in 2005 and accumulating to $4.5 trillion since 1990. With U.S. job growth falling behind population growth and with no growth in consumer real incomes, the U.S. economy is driven by expanding consumer debt. Saving rates are low or negative.

The federal budget is deep in the red, adding to America's dependency on debt. The United States cannot even go to war unless foreigners are willing to finance it.

Our biggest bankers are China and Japan, both of whom could cause the United States serious financial problems if they wished. A country whose financial affairs are in the hands of foreigners is not a superpower.

snip>

A country that cannot create jobs for its native born population is not a superpower.


more...


Found this regarding Paul Craig Roberts as well. The right is turning up the heat. I want to thank Tace for posting this article at WNT, since most of the other sites that I read Roberts, Ron Paul, Charley Reese and other "old Republicans" are not allowed on DU. :-(


http://www.infoisrael.net/cgi-local/text.pl?source=4/b/vi/030420061

Paul Craig Roberts and the Certifiable Right

Paul Craig Roberts is a nationally syndicated columnist whose career illustrates a sad intellectual decline. He was once an associate editor of the Wall Street Journal, a contributing editor for National Review, and an assistant secretary of the U.S. Treasury under Ronald Reagan. A mainline conservative. He has become an exponent of the “Old Right-New Left Alliance.” His current writings are a venomous, mendacious combination of ultra-leftist fulminations, Buchananite bigotry, and political phobias directed mainly against the Bush administration, conservatives and Israel. Terrorism would end, according to Roberts, if the U.S. would stop interfering in the internal affairs of Middle Eastern countries and if Israel would stop stealing the West Bank from the Palestinians. In the meantime, terrorist attacks against any American are justified because all Americans are guilty, all are complicit in the deaths of tens of thousands of Iraqi women and children. The Bush administration is spreading the lie that Muslims hate us and our way of life in order to excuse American aggression. It is spreading lies about Iran’s nuclear ambitions which will precipitate World War III. Like modern Buchananites, Roberts worries about the omnipresent influence of neocons, about Zionist power in general, and about society’s lack of reverence for white Christian civilization. He alleges that whites are being marginalized in their own country and will cease to support the two political parties that have marginalized them. Roberts reserves a special enmity for modern conservatives, who he claims are the real enemy. He contends that neocons are an unregistered lobby group for Israel’s Likud Party and that American conservatism has become a fascist movement.

The IHC recommends that you read this article in full.

more...

Here are some articles from EPI (albeit several months old) that explain the dearth of private-sector job growth.

http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_econindicators_jobspict_20060407





The boom that wasn't The economy has little to show for $860 billion in tax cuts
http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/bp168

Full article:
http://www.epi.org/briefingpapers/168/bp168.pdf

and when they do, it's usually followed by the "a liberal thinktank" tagline. That's when I know they're "right on" to something good. :evilgrin:

pffft

the parties. Wonder what Libertarians and Republicans think of that? Jeez, I'm so confused! :crazy:

Dow 11,335.60 +52.35 (+0.46%)
Nasdaq 2,335.45 +5.15 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,307.25 +5.51 (+0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 5.102 +0.31 (+0.61%)

NYSE Volume 216,260,000
Nasdaq Volume 220,018,000

09:40 am : Market opens on an upbeat note as investors weigh another batch of better than expected earnings reports against rising interest rates. Dow component Boeing (BA 83.51 -1.60) grew Q1 profits 29% and beat forecasts by 9 cents, but a sales miss and substandard guidance has prompted investors to lock in recent gains. Other notable names beating expectations but helping investors contend with surging bond yields on the heels of strong economic data include PepsiCo (PEP 57.90 +0.40), Colgate-Palmolive (CL 58.20 +0.85) and WellPoint (WLP 71.43 +0.69). March durable goods orders rose 6.1%, well above the 1.8% consensus, which reflects strong business investment and underpins solid economic growth. However, bond yields have climbed to four-year highs on the idea that continued economic strength may lead the Fed to raise rates more than just one more time.DJ30 +49.87 NASDAQ +6.98 SP500 +5.62 NASDAQ Vol 126 mln NYSE Vol 82 mln

Dow 11,354.57 +71.32 (+0.63%)
Nasdaq 2,339.56 +9.26 (+0.40%)
S&P 500 1,308.19 +6.45 (+0.50%)
10-yr Bond 51.05 +0.34 (+0.67%)
30-yr Bond 51.79 +0.25 (+0.49%)
NYSE Volume 828,112,000
Nasdaq Volume 711,332,000

11:00 am : Market is off its best levels but continues to sport broad-based gains as Energy's leadership comes under pressure following the EIA's weekly oil inventories report. At the bottom of the hour, crude oil futures spiked to session lows around $72.30 a barrel (-$0.58) following smaller than expected draw downs in crude oil and gasoline as well as unexpected rise in distillates. Oil has since recovered somewhat to $72.80 a barrel but is still down slightly on the day as traders continue to consolidate some of the commodity's 25% year-to-date gain. DJ30 +65.48 NASDAQ +7.79 SP500 +6.18 XOI +0.2% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1047/1665/650 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 874/2129/538 mln

10:30 am : Indices briefly spike lower following another stronger than expected economic read but recover nicely and are back at session highs. The Commerce Dept. just showed that new home sales in March surged 13.8%, the largest increase in nearly 13 years, to 1.213 mln units (consensus 1.1 mln). The data follow the unexpected rise in existing home sales yesterday that played a hand in lifting bond yields to four-year highs which kept buyers on the sidelines. Today's surprisingly strong "new home" sales, however, has provided some relief that a robust housing market, which has bolstered consumer spending for years via mortgage refinancing and home equity withdrawals, isn't about to roll over. A slowdown in housing was a concern reflected in the FOMC minutes that led to increased hopes that the Fed may only have one more rate hike on the horizon. ..HGX +2.8%. DJ30 +91.09 NASDAQ +11.32 SP500 +8.89 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 996/1608/464 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 947/1954/376 mln

10:00 am : Major averages continue to strengthen as nine of ten sectors trade in positive territory. Consumer Staples is pacing the way higher, led by strong earnings from PEP and CL. Despite another pullback in oil prices, record Q1 results from Baker Hughes (BHI 79.61 +3.68) has provided a boost to Energy and helped offset an earnings miss from ConocoPhillips (COP 68.07 -0.18). Materials has also posted a respectable gain following strong results from Louisiana Pacific (LPX 28.69 +2.15) and an analyst upgrade on U.S. Steel (X 69.11 +2.71). Utilities, though, has extended recent weakness as the continued rise in Treasury yields, which plays into our Underweight rating on the sector, diminishes the income-oriented appeal of utility stocks.
DJ30 +70.00 DJUA -0.4% NASDAQ +7.81 SP500 +7.20 XOI +0.9% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1097/1321/270 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 708/1718/198 mln

stocks! :crazy:

:spank:

voice of Homer Simpson. Why do you suppose that is?

But pity the bond traders today.

12:53
Dow 11,359.23 +75.98 (+0.67%)
Nasdaq 2,335.91 +5.61 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,307.51 +5.77 (+0.44%)
10-Yr Bond 50.98 +0.27 (+0.53%)
NYSE Volume 1,308,624,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,141,211,000

12:30 pm : No real change in sentiment as the afternoon session gets underway and the indices settle into a relatively tight trading range. It is worth noting, though, that the 2:00 ET release of the Fed's Beige Book -- a survey of nationwide economic conditions prepared for the next FOMC meeting -- could influence afternoon trading. The absence of anything too disturbing from an inflation perspective in the survey released on March 15th lifted the market to session highs. The Dow added more than 30 points while the S&P and Nasdaq tacked on roughly 6 and 4 points, respectively -- all of which were maintained into the close.DJ30 +74.84 NASDAQ +3.57 SP500 +5.70 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1320/1564/1.08 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1225/1912/868 mln

12:00 pm : Stocks continue to sport gains across the board as strong economic data and the broad-based nature of better than expected earnings reports continue to provide support, even in the face of rising interest rates and record oil prices that underpin our Neutral market view. Even though stronger than expected economic data of late continue to stoke inflation fears, spurring concerns that the Fed may go too far with its tightening efforts, today's surprisingly strong reports appear to be reflecting investors' renewed confidence in the economy. Nine out of ten economic sectors are posting gains.

Before the bell, March durable orders rose a much larger than expected 6.1%, reflecting strong business investment and underpinning solid economic growth. At 10:00 ET, March new home sales checked in with a 13.8% rise, the largest increase in nearly 13 years, following an unexpected rise in existing home sales yesterday that helped lifted bond yields toward four-year highs and kept buyers on the sidelines. The Treasury market continues to exhibit a sense of nervousness, as evidence by the yield on the 10-yr note hitting 5.12% earlier, but stocks today are overlooking the rise in borrowing costs in favor of earnings and economic expansion.

Another batch of strong earnings reports from giants like Boeing (BA 85.62 +0.51), PepsiCo (PEP 57.79 +0.29) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL 58.12 +0.77), has also improved overall sentiment and lent credence to an 11th straight quarter of double-digit profits -- growth that we still believe is not sustainable given record oil prices and uncertainty tied to monetary policy. Speaking of oil, record Q1 results from Baker Hughes (BHI 79.61 +3.68) has helped ease a growing realization that Energy sector profits are unlikely to increase at the same pace as over the past year, especially with oil prices off more than 1.0% today at $72.05 a barrel.

Benefiting from oil's slide as well as stronger than expected earnings from Office Depot (ODP 40.92 +2.72) has been retail. Combined with a 2.5% surge in homebuilding and a 6% surge in General Motors (GM 22.73 +1.32), which was upgraded to Neutral at Merrill Lynch, Consumer Discretionary has also been an influential leader to the upside. DJ30 +73.39 NASDAQ +3.48 SP500 +5.65 NASDAQ Dec/Adv 1311/1519 NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1206/1907/784 mln

A MINORITY VIEW
BY WALTER E. WILLIAMS
RELEASE: WEDNESDAY, APRIL 19, 2006, AND THEREAFTER

IS THERE A FEDERAL DEFICIT?
http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/wew/articles/06/deficit.html



:crazy: :silly: :wtf:



Ah, ok, now I know why he sounds like he's batshit insane:


More from Mr. Walter E. Williams:

Minimum wage, maximum folly
http://www.townhall.com/opinion/columns/walterwilliams/2006/04/26/194892.html

Contributes at WorldNutDaily
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/archives.asp?AUTHOR_ID=18

Adjunct Scholar at the frickin' CATO Institute!!!
http://www.cato.org/people/williams.html

Popular guest on Rush Limbaugh's show
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_E._Williams

"a deficit only in an accounting sense" :wtf: This is what happens when your economy and economic policy is made by folks that have never produced jack sh*t in their life. All they have ever done is crunched numbers and have never experienced the fundamentals of economics. They do these cockamamie calculations to prove their point.
A few years back there were articles written about 'junk science'. I think what I am seeing here is junk economics! I will be interesting when reality rears it's ugly head. The soup kitchen lines will be filled with surprised economists.:evilgrin:

edited cause I went to the link and recognized him....Yeah, bats were involved. If this guy were a dog, I'd have to put him down on suspicion of rabies.

Dow 11,332.49 +49.24 (+0.44%)
Nasdaq 2,327.96 -2.34 (-0.10%)
S&P 500 1,303.09 +1.35 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 5.105 +0.34 (+0.67%)

NYSE Volume 2,033,183,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,773,332,000

3:00 pm : Market continues to post respectable gains as the bulk of industry leadership remains positive. Telecom Services turned in the day’s best performance but Energy, which was pacing the way higher midday has recently slipping into negative territory as crude oil closed down 1.3% near session lows at $71.90 a barrel (-$0.98).DJ30 +73.56 NASDAQ +4.61 SP500 +5.06 XOI -1.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1382/1630/1.63 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1297/1925/1.33 bln

2:30 pm : Major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges, showing little reaction this time around to the release of the Fed's Beige Book. The Fed noted that, "While energy costs are high and costs for selected other inputs are rising, businesses continue to have limited ability to raise their selling prices." The Fed also said that growth is "moderate" and the labor market is "tight or tightening" while most districts reported "cooling and moderation" in housing. Since stocks usually take a cue from action in the Treasury market, which was prepared to face more strong economic news that has been behind recent weakness in bonds, the 10-yr note held stady and is still off 8 ticks to yield 5.10%.DJ30 +71.08 NASDAQ +5.12 SP500 +5.25 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1364/1631/1.49 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1268/1924/1.21 bln

I should know better than to post the close after disappearing for hours and without reloading the page.

you do such a great job bringing us this thread-No one will think twice about an occasional gaff. You're still our hero.