STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 5 May

CHART RELATIONSHIPS OFF THE BEATEN PATH

We are in a market where bulls make money, pigs make money, and bears get slaughtered. Pick your favorite…gold and precious metals, commodities, foreign stocks, or US mid-, small-caps, transports, or even the Dow. No matter what your flavor, they are all going up. It’s pretty much a matter of taste and risk. But as a practical matter, risk seems absent in today’s environment. There is no substantial evidence to suggest that we are at a major market turning point, and if we were, it wouldn’t be a bottom. By now, practically all money managers have formed their opinions, made their investments and are now either trading their opinions or investing them long term. So from that perspective, there is little to do. For example, if your were not a gold bull by now, in all likelihood you will never be one. Similarly, if you are skeptical of the US market, it is unlikely that you are soon going to decide to chase this market upward. Some potential meaningful chart relationships that stand away from the beaten path are featured in this article.

General Motors and Toyota

To listen to the media, the UAW is the primary reason for the rough times that General Motors is now having. It’s not for this writer to judge whether this is true, but a look at the comparative charts of GM and Toyota may shine some light on exactly what is the problem at GM. The chart below goes from the beginning of 2000 to the present, and compares the performance of General Motors to Toyota. From 2000 to the beginning of 2004, these two companies traded practically in lockstep with each other. Since they both make cars, this was as expected. But the two stocks parted company in early 2004, with Toyota making practically a b-line into positive ground. By contrast, GM made the opposite move south. If the primary reason for the charts parting company with each other was the UAW, then one would have to believe that the UAW was established during New Year's 2004. Yet we know that this is not the case.

-see chart-

One could make a strong case for the stocks parting company in 2004 because of a simple divergence of business strategy. General Motors took the path of the short term-minded, when they featured large vehicles over small ones. More importantly, their small cars were clearly inferior to those of the other car manufacturers. It is no coincidence that in 2004, there were large federal tax incentives provided by the government for business people who purchased the super-sized vehicles. This was described at practically that moment the stocks parted company in a previous Wrap-Up, entitled, “Nobody Needs a Hummer.”

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

one I'll be sure to remember when my ultra-right-wing Uncle starts railing against unions again (as he always does). We all remember the outrage here when the Bush Administration offered incentives for people to buy those gas guzzling Hummers. I wonder how those folks who followed the advice of the Chimp feel now?

8:30 AM Average Workweek Apr
Briefing Forecast 33.8
Market Expects 33.8
Prior 33.8

8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Apr
Briefing Forecast 0.3%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior 0.2%

8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Apr
Briefing Forecast 190K
Market Expects 200K
Prior 211K

8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Apr
Briefing Forecast 4.7%
Market Expects 4.7%
Prior 4.7%

3:00 PM Consumer Credit Mar
Briefing Forecast $1.0B
Market Expects $4.1B
Prior $3.3B

8:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Y-O-Y RISE MOST SINCE AUG. 2001

8:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. APRIL CONSTRUCTION PAYROLLS UP 10,000

8:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. APRIL MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS UP 19,000

8:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. FEB., MARCH PAYROLLS REVISED DOWN BY TOTAL OF 36,000

8:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. APRIL EMPLOYMENT PARTICIPATION RATE STAYS AT 66.1%

8:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. APRIL AVERAGE WORKWEEK RISES TO 33.9 HOURS.

8:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS UP 3.8% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

8:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. APRIL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS UP 0.5% VS. 0.3% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. APRIL JOBLESS RATE REMAINS AT 4.7% AS EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. APRIL NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 138,000 VS. 199,000 EXPECTED

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aC6yUZPOwdrs&refer=home

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell against the euro and yen after a government report showed the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than forecast last month.

Investors may reduce wagers the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates one more time after an increase next week. The dollar has fallen about 2 percent versus the euro since Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on April 27 that the central bank may stop raising rates ``at some point,'' after 15 straight increases since June 2004.

``My guess is if you have a number that's in line or slightly weak you're going to see the dollar sell off even further,'' Greg Anderson, a currency strategist with ABN Amro NV in Chicago, said before the report.

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The slowdown in hiring suggests record gasoline prices and rising borrowing costs are forcing companies to rein in costs to maintain profits. Hourly earnings increased as factories, which tend to pay higher wages than service providers such as retailers, added the most jobs in almost two years.

Rate Expectations

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CNN money, is talking about how the futures numbers are pointing to a higher open because of good numbers about to come out.
then after less then stealer numbers, they say the futures numbers are higher because of bad numbers and maybe the fed will be done raising rates.. go figure :shrug:

before the report:

U.S. stock futures rise, April payrolls data eyed
Fri May 5, 2006 8:06 AM ET

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-05-05T120558Z_01_N05315509_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, May 5 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday before U.S. April jobs data that are expected to show healthy economic growth and could provide clues about the outlook for interest rates.

In earnings news, natural gas producer El Paso Corp. (EP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said quarterly profit rose, and its shares gained on the electronic brokerage network Inet before the opening bell. For details, see .

The Labor Department issues nonfarm payrolls data, a gauge of strength in the labor market, and other employment statistics at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT).

A stronger-than-expected payrolls number could prompt speculation the Federal Reserve will raise rates beyond this month.

"Everybody is so Fed-dependent these days that what we're watching, and what I think most investors are hoping, for is a number in the middle of the range. That way I think the Fed isn't forced to keep tightening," said Barry Ritholtz, fund manager at Ritholtz Capital Partners.

Economists polled by Reuters forecast that U.S. employers added 200,000 jobs in April, compared with 211,000 in March. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged from March at 4.7 percent.

<snip>

Dow Jones industrial average futures <DJc1> were up 21 points, and Nasdaq 100 <NDc1> futures were up 2.75 points.

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after the report:

US rate futures surge on April jobs shortfall
Fri May 5, 2006 8:39 AM ET

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-05-05T123936Z_01_N05323110_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FEDFUNDS-PAYROLLS-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, May 5 (Reuters) - U.S. short-term rate futures surged higher after Friday's April payrolls report, which showed U.S. job creation far below Wall Street forecasts.

After the report chances for a June rate increase by the Federal Reserve fell as low as 36 percent from 48 percent just before the data. Dealers are still confident of a May rate hike by the Fed.

The Labor Department said 138,000 non-farm payroll jobs were created in April versus Wall Street forecasts for 200,000; the jobless rate was steady at 4.7 percent.

:hi:

3:00 PM ET 5/5/06 U.S. FEB. CONSUMER CREDIT RISES $4.5 BLN VS. $3.3 BLN

3:00 PM ET 5/5/06 U.S. MARCH NONREVOLVING CREDIT RISES $2.66 BLN, OR 2.4%

3:00 PM ET 5/5/06 U.S. MARCH REVOLVING CREDIT FALLS $140 MILLION, OR 0.21%

3:00 PM ET 5/5/06 U.S. MARCH CONSUMER CREDIT RISES $2.52 BLN, OR 1.4%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B45DE9E72%2DF2DD%2D4C6C%2DB86E%2D838CA086BD4C%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumers took on an extra $2.52 billion in debt in March but decreased their amount of credit card debt, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. Total outstanding consumer credit in March rose by 1.4% to $2.161 trillion, the Fed said. Revolving debt like that on credit cards fell by $140 million, the first drop since October. Nonrevolving debt like automobile loans, meanwhile, rose by $2.66 billion, or 2.4%. February's total consumer credit was revised to rise by $4.4 billion versus a previously estimated $3.3 billion.

SINGAPORE - Crude futures gained Friday in Asian trading after sinking more than $2 a barrel earlier this week on U.S. government data that showed an increase in gasoline supplies.

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Prices had plunged $2.33 Wednesday after the U.S. Energy Department released its weekly report showing a supply rise as refineries boost output and demand flattens.

The report showed that over the past four weeks, average daily gasoline demand in the United States was 9.127 million barrels per day, barely higher than year-ago demand of 9.125 million barrels a day.

It also showed that domestic inventories of gasoline climbed by 2.1 million barrels, reversing eight straight weeks of declines. U.S. gasoline supplies stand at 202.7 million barrels, or 5 percent below year-ago levels.

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ALMATY (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSa.L) is likely to win oil exploration rights to the Nursultan block in the south of the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea after winning political backing, the Dutch Foreign Ministry said on Friday.

"Things are looking good now and we expect the deal to go ahead," Herman van Gelderen, spokesman for Dutch Foreign Minister Bernard Bot, said after talks between Bot and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev on Thursday.

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A Shell spokesman in London said: "We can confirm that we've been in discussion with the Kazakh state oil company (KazMunaiGas) about the Nursultan field in the Caspian and we're pleased with progress at this stage."

Nazarbayev's backing is crucial for major projects in Kazakhstan. He has ruled the ex-Soviet Central Asian state since 1989, overseeing rapid growth in its oil sector and economy but drawing criticism from non-governmental organizations for tolerating little political opposition and failing to root out corruption.

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http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8HDK2400.htm?campaign_id=rss_full_topix_bwdaily&chan=db

MAY. 5 8:11 A.M. ET Vice President Dick Cheney traveled to Kazakhstan on Friday for talks with President Nursultan Nazarbayev, seeking to maximize access to the vast oil and gas reserves in the central Asian nation with a troubled human-rights record.

Cheney became the fourth top administration official to visit the former Soviet republic in recent months, underscoring the importance placed on a country that is strategically located and an ally in the war on terror, as well as rich in energy resources.

Administration policy favors development of multiple means of delivering Kazakhstan's energy supplies to markets in the West and elsewhere.

Among them, Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher told Congress recently, the United States is "working on securing the flow of oil" from North Caspian oil fields by tanker to a pipeline terminus in Azerbaijan. That route would bypass Russia and Iran. There has also been periodic talk of building a pipeline under the Caspian Sea.

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"The government's human-rights record remains poor," according to a recent State Department report.

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What is Heartless Dead-eye Dick doing? Is he working on another Halliburton contract?

And to the cronyism for which it stands - two economies, dependent on oil, with liberty and justice for the rich.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-05-05T155520Z_01_N05340489_RTRUKOC_0_UK-BUSH-RUSSIA.xml&archived=False

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The new tensions come as the United States is seeking support from Russia on applying pressure on Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions.

Russia, which has major investments in Iran, has stood firm against U.N. sanctions on Tehran to the chagrin of Washington.

"They add up the pluses and minuses, they don't want to trash the relationship with Iran," said Steve Pifer, a Russian expert for the U.S. State Department in Bush's first term and now an analyst for the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

I'd love to see that listing of pros and cons

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:donut: and lurkers. Happy Sinko the Mayo (Texas drawl).

I haven't believed all the rah rah reports from the government about the damage to the gulf oil industry (oil production is on the move). Refineries are having problems starting up, production still not up to pre Katrina/Rita levels. Well, the gov published a 'revised' :eyes: damage report on the underwater pipe lines. MMS first estimated that that 183 underwater lines were damaged. It was revised to 457 damaged and STILL counting. It is estimated to take 5-7 years to get back to pre Katrina condition.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5383631

The Offshore Drilling Conference is wrapping up here and there is a lot of buzz about how to design for these super hurricanes. That is years in the future though.

I have said it before and I will say it again...if Houston takes a direct hurricane hit any time soon....the economy will be sunk-it will be a tipping point. Recovery has been hindered by gov incompetence, no two ways about it. By valuing the big companies over the small business and well heeled over the worker-they have set the regional recovery back tremendously.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

10:11 AM ET 5/5/06 JUNE CRUDE CLIMBS 6C TO $70/BRL IN EARLY NY DEALINGS

10:11 AM ET 5/5/06 JUNE NATURAL GA RISES 1.8% TO 1-WEEK HIGH OF $7.03/MLN BTUS

12:05 PM ET 5/5/06 JUNE CRUDE UP 46C AT $70.40/BRL AFTER $69.70 LOW

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060505/oil_at_risk.html?.v=2

Not Just Iran: Across the Globe, Steady Oil and Gas Supply at Risk


VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Unrest in Africa. Mideast insurgency and terrorism. Iran's nuclear brinkmanship. Russian pressure politics. South American resource nationalism.

Piece by piece, the global energy puzzle reveals a bleak horizon for a world frantically searching for secure oil and gas supplies.

Concerns over Iran -- the world's fourth-largest oil producer -- have been the prime factor recently in driving crude prices to record levels and, combined with tight global refining capacity, for pushing U.S. gasoline pump prices above $3 a gallon in many places.

With the U.N. Security Council deadlocked and Tehran refusing to cease uranium enrichment, there is no end in sight to the struggle or the upward price spiral.

A barrel of crude was trading around $70 a barrel Friday. But Iranian officials this week predicted prices as high as $120 -- a forecast some experts share.

more...

WASHINGTON - U.S. workers raised their productivity in the opening quarter of this year. Their compensation went up briskly, too.

From a worker perspective more generous compensation — wages and benefits — is a good thing. But economists worry that big gains — if sustained for a long period — could cause inflation to take off.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that productivity — the amount an employee produces for every hour on the job — grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the January-to-March quarter.

That marked a welcome turnaround from the closing quarter of 2005, when productivity actually declined at an annual rate of 0.3 percent, economists said.

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WASHINGTON - Consumer confidence sank to a seven-month low as sticker shock from rising gasoline prices made Americans anxious about the economy's prospects and the strain on their own budgets.

The RBC CASH Index, based on results from the international polling firm Ipsos, showed confidence at 67.1 in early May. That marked a big deterioration from 89.4 in April.

The new confidence reading was the lowest since October, when the country was still reeling from the devastation and fallout wrought by the Gulf Coast hurricanes, including high energy prices.

"Whenever we get big spikes in oil and gasoline prices it takes a toll on consumer confidence," observed economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.

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seperate from the Michigan one that always has us so damn happy.:mad: Seems so.

WASHINGTON - Rates on 30-year mortgages climbed this week, hitting their highest point in nearly four years, a development that will be weighed by people thinking about buying a home or refinancing the one they own.

Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, reported Thursday that for the week ending May 4, rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.59 percent, up slightly from 6.58 percent last week.

This week's rate was the highest since the week ending June 20, 2002, when 30-year mortgage rates stood at 6.63 percent.

It marked the sixth week in a row that rates on 30-year mortgages went up. These rates have been rising as Wall Street investors have worried about inflation picking up.

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Higher mortgage payments are squeezing more homeowners.

Not because they've bought bigger homes or tapped their equity by taking out second mortgages but because the superlow "teaser" payments that drew them into their adjustable-rate mortgages are quickly disappearing.

Thousands of people used the non-traditional mortgages last year to afford a house in the Valley, where home prices increased nearly 50 percent from 2004. They're paying for that decision today.

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As a result, each year, the monthly payment on a loan for a $250,000 Valley home could climb by more than $100.

Arizona incomes aren't climbing at the same rate, meaning many of those already struggling to pay their mortgages could wind up losing their homes in the months ahead.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0505mortgage0505.html

(May 5, 2006) — Eastman Kodak Co. has shuttered factories around the world and eliminated nearly 20,000 jobs over the past three years.

But the next phase of its historic restructuring could be as significant as those headlining actions — if not more so.

Rochester's No. 2 employer said Thursday that it is considering a sale or other alternatives for its historic health care imaging unit, once considered the company's model for navigating the film-to-digital transition. Kodak has retained Goldman, Sachs & Co. of New York to explore changes for the $2.7 billion unit. That prompted analysts to predict that the division would be sold.

Kodak also announced that it would realign the way it manages manufacturing, breaking a 120-year-old operating tradition. Such a step, analysts said, could make it easier for Kodak to later sell or spin off other parts of the company.

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health imaging is about the only profitable business Kodak has nowadays. Man.....I put 29 years in with that company, film research. I got out when the handwriting was on the wall in 1998, the digital revolution had already started. I know so many people in health imaging.....I'll have to make a few phone calls today. What the hell will Kodak have left? Selling digital cameras isn't going to keep them afloat. :eyes: I can remember when Kodak was the number one employer in Rochester with almost 80,000 employees in Rochester. Now there's well under 20,000. Western New York is fast becoming a new rust belt area. :cry:

GMAC. Special kind of stupid.

(CNN) -- The presidents of four South American nations on Thursday presented a unified front committed to energy cooperation after an unscheduled summit prompted when Bolivian President Evo Morales moved earlier this week to nationalize his country's natural gas industry.

The move disturbed Brazil and Argentina -- Bolivia's largest gas customers -- but Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who previously had nationalized his own country's gas output, pledged immediate support for his ally, Morales.

"We support Bolivia that is pointing in the same direction that Venezuela is pointing," Chavez said earlier Thursday in La Paz, Bolivia, where he met with Morales before the two traveled to Puerto Iguazu, on Argentina's border with Brazil, for the four-way meeting.

"We have recovered the control of our natural resources and our mineral riches in a very long and difficult process that even cost us an attempted coup," Chavez said. "I can tell you that the process in Bolivia will in no way be traumatic."

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/05/05/bolivia.privatization/

Venezuela could pull this off - but Bolivia is no Venezuela

Employers Added 200,000 Jobs in U.S. During April, Survey Shows
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- American employers probably added 200,000 jobs last month, keeping up the strongest pace of hiring since 2000, economists said ahead of a government report today.

The forecast gain, based on the median of 73 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of economists, would follow an increase of 211,000 jobs in March and exceed the average of 171,500 for the past year. The unemployment rate probably held at 4.7 percent, matching a four-year low, economists forecast.

Employers are adding workers to keep up with demand after the economy grew at the fastest pace in more than two years in the first quarter. Bright job prospects will encourage consumers to continue spending in the fact of rising gasoline prices and a slowdown in the housing market, economists said.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aKvYYUOUtsHI&refer=home

About as believable as the government "estimates"

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 85.54 Change +0.02 (+0.02%)

US Dollar Bear Party Late Into the Night

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/US_Dollar_Bear_Party_Late_1146825369382.html

EUR/USD – EUR/USD gained for the 16th day in 20 yesterday, which has happened on two separate occasions since the advent of the euro. This 16-out-20-day-gain sequence last happened for 3 days in a row from 6/28/2002 – 7/2/2002 and it happened yesterday. If today’s candle closes higher, then we will for the first time ever have 17 of the last 20 days as gains. That first scenario that we mentioned in 2002 occurred at the end of the first leg of multi moth uptrend that ended at 1.3666. This quantitative analysis sets the long term bias as bullish. Furthermore after the 7/2/2002 candle, the market was obviously overextended (as it is now) and the pair fell 277 pips before resuming its next leg up. Consequently, if we have topped out at 1.2724 (yesterday’s high), then the area bound by the 38.2% fibo of 1.2065-1.2724 and 23.6% fibo of 1.1825-1.2724 is 1.2474-1.2512, which would place the end of a contra move anywhere from 212-250 pips from yesterday’s high – a number eerily similar to the 277 pip contra move that occurred in a similar scenario in 2002. The ATR on 7/2/2002 and yesterday were both 103, suggesting similar volatility and possibly similar moves.

<snip>

USD/JPY – USD/JPY continues to correct and currently sits at the 23.6% fibo of 118.88-112.34 at 113.87. Daily oscillators are turning up including RSI, which is now above 30. There is not much congestion past the 4/24 low at 114.23, and thus a continued corrective move possibly tests the 38.2% fibo of 118.87-112.34 at 114.82. Yesterday’s 113.25 low is initial support with a break below giving scope to Monday’s low at 112.33. The downtrend remains intact given that the 3/1 low at 115.44 holds as resistance.

<snip>

USD/CAD – The contra move up was rejected at 1.1150 yesterday and the pair currently trades just below the 1.1100 figure. The consolidation of the extreme losses could test the 23.6% fibo of 1.1771-1.1011 at 1.1188 with a break exposing the confluence of the 38.2% fibo / 3/2 low at 1.1297/1.1300 – a level which if held keeps the recent downtrend from 1.1771 intact. A resumption of the downtrend encounters the 5/3 low at 1.1011 low and eventually the 20% fibo of 1.1297-1.1771 at 1.0825. The downtrend remains intact as long as the low from 3/2 at 1.1297 holds as resistance.

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Tomorrow's Economic Releases: All Eyes On US Employment

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__All_Eyes_1146777916506.html

US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (APR) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)

Consensus: 200K

Previous: 211K

Outlook: The market consensus for April’s change in the number of employed in the world’s largest economy is a duplicate of March’s expected 200,000. For April the support began to pile up behind expectations for the 32nd month of a net increase in jobs. The most immediate data available for interpretation were the initial and continuing jobless claims that have been released so far for the month. While both figures increased for their most recent report, the trends in the figures are presenting a different picture. A four-week moving average of first time claims rested at 308,500, consistent with healthy labor market growth. More favorable, however, was the same period average for continuing claims that dropped to a five-year low 2.43 million citizens. Elsewhere, the ISM manufacturing and services indices revealed in both of their employment sub-index gauges that employment conditions improved for the month of April. If job growth can hold onto its steady pace of 150,000 plus additions each month, the implications for consumer-driven inflation could prove green Fed Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke’s suggestion that rate hikes are about to slow, premature.

Previous: The US economy added 211,000 jobs in March led by trends in the service sector. Service-based firms like banks, retailers and travel agencies added 202,000 new employees to the payrolls, while those in the construction arena took on 7000 following February’s 37,000 new hires. Lagging behind once again, manufacturers dismissed a net 5,000 current employees. Overall, this third month of the year represents the best quarter for hiring in since the same three-month period in 2000. Additionally, the most recent addition of jobs to the labor market has pushed the jobless rate to a 4-year high 4.7%, lending to concerns that the economy, running near full capacity according to Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, could push inflation for months to come. Hourly wage growth has already grown 0.3% per month in the first quarter; representing the strongest such pace in the read since 2001. April’s strong employment numbers merely eased the Fed Reserve’s circle of monetary policy officials’ decision to raise the overnight lending rate yet again for the month to its current 4.75% level.

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Non-Farm Payrolls Could Do Little to Reverse Dollar Sentiment

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Non_Farm_Payrolls_Could_Do_Little_1146777233366.html

US Dollar - Over the past two and a half weeks, we have essentially seen the demise of the dollar. The mighty greenback sold off 600 pips against the Euro, 500 pips against the Japanese Yen and a whopping 1000 pips against the British pound. In fact, the dollar has now given back over 50 percent of its 2005 gains and is on the path to lose even more. By now, everyone should realize the power that the G7 meetings have on the markets. As we have warned on the Monday following the G7 announcement, the initial drop was just a precursor to an even bigger move. Back then, we took a look back at the 2003 G7 meeting in Dubai, where the knee jerk reaction was a mere 150 pip slide in the EUR/USD but over the next few months, the currency pair lost another 11 percent of its value or a total of 1100 pips. Putting that into perspective, it seems that even though the dollar’s weakness seems to be overextended, it could fall even further. In 2003, there was only one retracement in the EUR/USD that could have given traders an opportunity to buy on dips, but otherwise, the move was almost a perfectly clean 45 degree angle. With ECB President Trichet’s comments out of the way, the market can turn its full focus on tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report. Jobless claims were slightly higher today while the Monster.com online employment index dipped for the first time in four months. However, both of these reports are coming off of healthier levels and conflict with other reports that have been signaling strength such as the employment components of the ISM surveys and details from payroll service provider ADP. Triple digit gains are certainly expected with the market consensus holding steady at 200k. With no major strikes last month, it seems that nothing should hold back a stronger report. Yet whether the market will respond to a good number remains questionable. The payrolls number probably needs to come in at least 50k over or under the market’s forecast to have a meaningful impact on the dollar. Even though non-farm payrolls are traditionally a very market moving number, traders have done a phenomenal job of ignoring anything dollar positive. A great example is today’s sharp slide in oil prices. The dollar should have responded positively to the weakness as well as the big jump in unit labor costs and non-farm productivity, but it didn’t. So along that line, it could very well shrug off an in line non-farm payroll report as well.

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Thanks to TexasLawyer and this DU thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2264746

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/0c495a8e-dba5-11da-98a8-0000779e2340.html

The US dollar stemmed its losses against Asian currencies in early London trading on Thursday after Japanese and Chinese officials in India reiterated their opposition to an immediate currency realignment.

But a tough statement by Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, warning that eurozone interest rates would almost certainly rise next month, sent the dollar to a new one-year low against the euro later in the London day, leading to further dollar weakness against all leading currencies.

The US currency has been falling since March and its decline accelerated after last month’s meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the group of seven leading economies concentrated on reducing the US trade deficit and the related surpluses in Asia and among oil producers.

Asian ministers have repeatedly tried to limit the appreciation of their currencies verbally and by buying dollars since an annex to the G7 statement said that “in emerging Asia, particularly China, greater flexibility in exchange rates is critical”.

<snip>

“I heard rumours that the US dollar might depreciate by 25 per cent,” he said. “This would have a big impact on countries like China because it would not only affect the value of assets invested in the US.”

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Last trade 85.17 Change -0.35 (-0.41%)

Settle Time 15:01 Open 85.51

Previous Close 85.52 High 85.63

Low 85.09 2006-05-05 08:36:29, 30 min delay

Last trade 85.13 Change -0.39 (-0.46%)

Settle Time 15:01 Open 85.51

Previous Close 85.52 High 85.63

Low 85.00 2006-05-05 09:49:23, 30 min delay

Last trade []b85.08 Change -0.44 (-0.51%)

Settle Time 15:01 Open 85.51

Previous Close 85.52 High 85.63

Low 85.00 2006-05-05 10:01:05, 30 min delay

The United States Nickel is composed of 25% nickel and 75% copper and weighs in at 5 grams. With copper soaring to approximately $3.50 a pound, and nickel weighing in at almost $9.00 a pound, the current value of a 1946 to 2006 Nickel is now worth around $0.0535. This is roughly 107% of the face value.

<snip>

Other coins are also coming close to, or have overtaken, their face value as well. The 1982 to 2006 one Cent coin, primarily composed of zinc, is now worth around $0.009 or 90% of face value according to recent NYMEX metal prices. For those of you who have saved your pennies, the Pre-1982 Cent is now worth over $0.02, or 200% of face value, due to its high copper content. Fortunately for the Fed, other major United States coins in circulation are safe with metal prices ranging from $0.02 for a dime to $0.05 for a quarter.

http://webwire.com/ViewPressRel.asp?SESSIONID=&aId=13706

bit....A hint at the REAL vaule of our money - nothing, nada, zilch!

...other major United States coins in circulation are safe with metal prices ranging from $0.02 for a dime to $0.05 for a quarter.

and the yen is a whole yen stronger than it was yesterday. :scared:

Last trade 85.08 Change -0.44 (-0.51%)

Settle Time 15:01 Open 85.51

Previous Close 85.52 High 85.63

Low 85.08 2006-05-05 09:12:40, 30 min delay

:scared:

Hmm, and I did the yen<=>pound conversation, and they seem to be rising in tandem.

I wonder if this is the financial world's revenge on the U.S.

This is not the highest the yen has ever gone. It was in the 90s for a while in the early 1990s.

Maybe they ought to start listing what currencies the dollar is up against - Could shorten the headlines quite a bit. Notice they couldn't fit the yen in there? :evilgrin:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BBA49CA5E%2DE61E%2D480E%2D835D%2D2842FD8E9560%7D&source=blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar slumped to fresh one-year lows versus the euro, pound and Swiss francs and also fell against the yen early Friday after the U.S. nonfarm payrolls number came in far lower-than-expected.

snip>

"The FX market now accentuates the negative in U.S. economic releases and minimizes the positive," said Kathy Lien, chief strategist at FXCM. "There is little reason for any traders to remain dollar bulls."

snip>

"Dollar weakness is likely to continue, largely due to trade and external financing issues, and the movement of U.S. interest rates related to inflation risk is not likely to help the dollar," said Kurt Hoeksema, director of foreign exchange dealing at Global Forex Trading.

Also on Friday, Iran took a step toward establishing an oil trading market denominated in euros, rather than the U.S. dollar, by registering an oil bourse on the Persian Gulf island of Kish in which oil would be sold in euros, according to AP, citing a state-run television in Iran.

The news followed recent comments by Middle Eastern central banks, including the United Arab Emirates and Qatar that they're looking to raise the euro's weighting in their foreign-exchange reserves.

more...

9:48 AM ET 5/5/06 JUNE GOLD UP $2.50 AT $679/OZ AFTER $686.50 HIGH

9:48 AM ET 5/5/06 JULY SILVER CLIMBS 4.5C TO $13.87/OZ IN NY

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BADEC99B0%2D589A%2D41C2%2D87F9%2D0959FD66C246%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- June gold climbed to a nearly 26-year high of $686.50 an ounce Friday morning and was last up $4.50 at $681. "My new target for gold is $810 within the next 2 months if things persist as they are," said trader Kevin Kerr, who's also editor of MarketWatch's Global Resources Trader. "If not -- then a pull back to $620 and then a steady climb higher. The way things have been going though, it's anyone's guess."

12:00 PM ET 5/5/06 JUNE GOLD UP $5 AT $681.50/OZ IN NY

12:00 PM ET 5/5/06 JULY SILVER RISES 1.5C TO $13.84/OZ

12:00 PM ET 5/5/06 JULY COPPER UP 0.55C AT $3.485/LB AFTER RECORD $3.55

1:47 PM ET 5/5/06 JULY COPPER CLOSES AT A RECORD $3.4935/LB, UP 1.4C

1:47 PM ET 5/5/06 JULY COPPER ENDS THE WEEK UP 8.5%

1:47 PM ET 5/5/06 JUNE GOLD UP $7.80 AT NEARLY 26-YR HIGH OF $684.30/OZ

1:47 PM ET 5/5/06 JUNE GOLD CLOSES UP $29.80, OR 4.6%, FOR THE WEEK

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/05/business/05legal.html?ex=1304481600&en=796796080dd18a22&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

WHEN it comes to many kinds of antitrust enforcement, Bush administration officials call to mind Abba Eban's observation about the Palestinians: They don't miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

The administration, following its Democratic and Republican predecessors, continues its unsurprising policy of aggressively combating cartels and price-fixing. (Who, after all, would be in favor of cartels and price fixers?)

But in other areas of antitrust law, the administration has taken the most relaxed and least aggressive approach since the last years of the Reagan presidency.

A few weeks ago, the Justice Department cleared Whirlpool's $1.7 billion acquisition of Maytag even though the new entity would have a dominating share of the marketplace, controlling about three-quarters of the market for some home appliances.

The department justified its decision by a combination of evidence and law. That included confidential commercial information that the department says it cannot make public; a very broad definition of the marketplace to include foreign companies, some of which have yet to make a bigger push in the United States; and an expansive reading of the economic efficiency defense for permitting such deals.

The decision demoralized the career ranks of the antitrust division at the Justice Department, officials there have said. And it left private antitrust practitioners in Washington wondering whether, in light of the decision and the flurry of corporate dealers, there are could really be any mergers that this administration would challenge.

...more...

11:49am 05/05/06 Moody's may downgrade GM's B3 senior unsecured rating - MarketWatch.com

I wonder if that is why that "former Wall Street analyst" needed to go and spend some time with his family? :eyes:

know they're losing their shirts.

Associated Press

TEHRAN, Iran - Iran's oil ministry took a step toward establishing an oil trading market denominated in euros, rather than the U.S. dollar, by granting a license for the bourse, state-run television reported Friday.

Just who would trade on the market wasn't immediately apparent. Iranian television did not mention traders or governments willing to market or purchase products on the exchange, nor did it say when it would open for business.

"Iran has registered an oil bourse on the Persian Gulf island of Kish in which oil would be sold in euros," the broadcast said. Kish, located off the coast of southern Iran, houses the offices of some 100 Iranian and foreign oil companies.

Iranian legislators earlier this year urged the government to set up the market to reduce the United States' influence over the Islamic republic's economy. They also criticized Oil Minister Sayed Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh, saying he had delayed setting up the bourse.

If the market succeeds, observers say euro-denominated oil sales could eventually convince central bankers to convert some U.S. dollar reserves into euros, possibly causing a decline in the dollar's value.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/financial_markets/14508484.htm

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BBA49CA5E%2DE61E%2D480E%2D835D%2D2842FD8E9560%7D&symbol=

(about halfway down)

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/0d43f9fe-db9f-11da-98a8-0000779e2340.html

snip>

The Bankers Association of Zimbabwe recently warned the central bank of impending bank closures if the current tight monetary policy and overvalued exchange were maintained. Last week, Gideon Gono, governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, remain-ed firm on his interest rate and money supply policies but hinted at currency devaluation to help offset escalating business costs.

The authorities say they are determined to tackle inflation, which is expected to move above 1,000 per cent when the April figure is announced next week, but the central bank is being forced to pump trillions of Zimbabwe dollars into the market to finance subsidies for gold, tobacco, maizemeal (the staple food) and last week’s 200 to 300 per cent pay award to public servants, including the police and army.

The public service pay increase is estimated to cost Z$60,000bn to Z$75,000bn (US$600m-US$750m, €470m-€590m, £323m-£404m). The entire national budget for 2006 is Z$124,000bn so the pay award alone will increase government spending by about 50 per cent.

Economists say this is only the tip of the iceberg and that when the gold, maize, tobacco, fuel and parastatal subsidies are in-cluded, government spending is likely to be at least double the budget. To mop up excess liquidity, the central bank has been paying interest rates of up to 525 per cent for 91-day Treasury bills.

These bills, which mature in May-June, will force the authorities to print still more money to repay the loans and associated interest costs.

snip>

The explosion in government borrowing and spending is undermining central bank efforts to prevent inflation – already the highest in the world by a very wide margin at 914 per cent – from reaching hyperinflationary levels of more than 50 per cent a month.

Sound familiar? Thank Bob the US$ is still the world's reserve currency!

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/sub/latest/story/0,4574,194367,00.html?

BEIJING - An 'excessively huge surplus' in China's balance of payments indicates the overcapacity and other imbalances in the economy have been intensifying, Xinhua news agency said on Friday.

China's balance of payments reached US$223.8 billion in 2005, more than three times higher than in 2001, an official of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) was quoted as saying. China recorded a current account surplus of US$160.8 billion in 2005, up 133 per cent from US$69 billion in 2004, and SAFE said it would remain 'relatively big' this year.

'China's current account surplus accounted for 7.2 per cent of the country's GDP, up drastically from 1.3 percent in 2001,' the official, who declined to be identified, was quoted as saying. 'The current account surplus indicates that the domestic savings have exceeded domestic investment and that there was a problem of overcapacity.'

The foreign exchange regulator said China would take steps to boost consumption and let the exchange rate play a bigger role in tilting the economy towards basic balance in the country's international payments.


China's balancing act
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060505/bs_ft/fto050520060333116896;_ylt=Av5dfHr_QrTZz5o9kv56ty_2ULEF;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--

Like the Bourbons, China's banks appear to have learned nothing and forgotten nothing. Despite the $290bn spent in the past few years to clean up their balance sheets, the four biggest state-owned lenders have bad loans of $358bn, more than double official estimates, according to Ernst & Young. Total bad loans may be as much as $900bn, twice the 2002 level and equal to half the country's gross domestic product.

Those figures spell a potential headache for the foreign strategic investors who have scrambled to buy stakes in China's banks - and a still bigger one for the Chinese government. They are further evidence that much of the economy's expansion is being funded by loans for unproductive investments, which will turn bad if the pace of activity slackens. In other words, maintaining the high growth needed to prevent another costly banking crisis merely stores up even bigger problems in the future. That makes even harder and more hazardous policymakers' struggle to re-balance the economy by controlling the renewed overheating that imprudent lending has encouraged.

Despite government-imposed top management changes, stricter internal controls and tighter regulation, reform has yet to take root in China's banks. They remain handicapped by poor risk pricing, lack of reliable information about borrowers, weak disciplines on far-flung branch networks and a history of corruption and fraud.

Furthermore, the banks' preference for lending mainly to state-owned industries, at the expense of the more vibrant private sector, limits their own returns and economic growth. McKinsey, the management consultancy, estimates that effective financial reforms, including the creation of functioning equity and bond markets, could raise GDP by 13 per cent. Equally important, China's primitive financial system deprives economic policymakers of essential management tools by making banks unresponsive to changes in official interest rates and limiting the scope of money market intervention. That leaves policy heavily dependent on distortive sectoral investment curbs and crude jawboning.

However, Beijing's determination to hold down the value of the renminbi has made its predicament much worse. The costs are measured in the surge in money supply and bank lending that powered China's torrid first-quarter growth rate, fuelling the asset inflation that Beijing is now struggling to control. Given its fragile financial system - and deteriorating margins in much of industry - Beijing's fears that an abrupt revaluation could severely damage the economy are understandable. However, the danger is at least as great that clinging stubbornly to an artificial exchange rate, while relying on ineffectual domestic policy instruments, will turn the current boom into a bust.

snip>

Those figures spell a potential headache for the foreign strategic investors who have competed to buy stakes in China's banks - and a still bigger one for the Chinese government. They are further evidence that much of the economy's expansion is being funded by loans for unproductive investments, which will turn bad if growth slackens.

more...

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/sub/latest/story/0,4574,194371,00.html?

HYDERABAD, India - The Asian Development Bank welcomed on Friday an announcement by Asean members along with China, Japan and South Korea that they would consider a single Asian currency similar to the euro.

'We highly welcome a study by Asean+3 governments (Japan, China and South Korea) on a regional monetary unit,' said Masahiro Kawai, head of the bank's unit of Regional Economic Cooperation and Integration.

snip>

ADB president Haruhiko Kuroda told a seminar on Asian economic integration the region's options included 'European-style comprehensive and deep integration with a common trade and monetary policy' or the North American path of a free trade area.

'The European style of integration seems to have the greatest potential for realising the dynamic benefits of a common trade area and monetary policy,' he said on Thursday

bit more...

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=aN.VmK31CNo0

snip>

A highly unusual sight in the southern Indian city, the swarm of luxury vehicles is ferrying investment bankers between five-star hotels and Hyderabad's newly constructed exhibition complex. It's there that the Asian Development Bank is holding its annual meeting.

Sightings of Westerners in pinstriped suits tapping away on a Blackberry are becoming more frequent at Asian gatherings, a reminder that the region is hot again. So is the fact that, in U.S. dollar terms, the Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia- Pacific Index, excluding Japan, this week returned to levels not seen since the days before the 1997 financial crisis.

In 1996, speculative capital pumped up economies. A year later, it helped touch off the worst financial crisis the world had seen in decades. Even faster than it flowed into Asia, the money fled, slamming asset prices and living standards from South Korea to Indonesia.

snip>

These days, the G-7 has little influence over the nations doing the most to drive global trends. China, India and other developing Asian economies are boosting commodity prices, pushing inflation rates higher. Asia's vast purchases of U.S. debt also are depressing global interest rates, hindering efforts to cool growth. The International Monetary Fund is mulling how to better represent China and India.

Asia Can't Disappoint

Perhaps most convincing about Asia's revival is how the region has become less reliant on the West. In the past, rich nations helped finance Asia's economic booms. This time around, developing economies are helping the West maintain its way of life via purchases of U.S. debt. It's an intriguing reversal of fortune.

Asia can't afford to let investors down again. It's incumbent upon leaders to use the window of opportunity afforded by today's growth to stabilize economies and markets. Investors may be willing to forgive Asia for 1997. They're unlikely to forgive again if Asia can't keep its party going. :eyes: :grr:

more...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=a6T9scvoyPCM&refer=japan

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's fiscal problems are severe and the nation's revenue and spending need to be addressed to find a solution, Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said.

``Our fiscal situation remains extremely severe,'' Tanigaki said in a speech to the annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank in Hyderabad, India. ``I am determined to pursue structural reform on the fiscal front, both in revenue and expenditure.''

Japanese policy makers are at odds about how to reduce the nation's budget deficit and stop the expansion of the public debt, forecast to swell to 151 percent of gross domestic product by the end of March 2007. They are also concerned an increase in interest rates by the Bank of Japan will increase the cost of servicing that debt.

Tanigaki has signaled the need to raise taxes, pitting him against some members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party who don't want to repeat of 1997, when a consumption tax increase pushed the economy into recession.

more...

Dow 11,504.01 +65.15 (+0.57%)
Nasdaq 2,340.43 +16.53 (+0.71%)
S&P 500 1,319.68 +7.43 (+0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 5.104 -0.46 (-0.89%)

NYSE Volume 76,499,000
Nasdaq Volume 85,657,000

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB114675328154243771.html?

snip>

Unfortunately, the very nature of these synthetically created securities makes it difficult for those outside Wall Street to debate their merits. For some, the definition alone is enough to cause eyes to glaze over. Essentially, derivatives are risk-shifting agreements whose value depends on -- is "derived" from -- an underlying asset, financial instrument, or event.

Making matters more difficult, however, is the fact that the value of certain complex varieties, such as options, asset-backed securities, and credit-default swaps, depends on many inputs. That often necessitates the use of complicated formulas and high-powered computers, especially when portfolios of derivatives are involved.

Yet the mathematical certitude this conveys is misplaced. In truth, pricing often depends on fickle or otherwise fast-changing financial relationships, less-than-adequate histories of how certain markets will perform under a wide range of scenarios and guesstimates about how volatile conditions will be in future.

That means a major financial institution with significant derivative exposure could easily find itself hit with a very expensive and potentially destabilizing loss if even one of its assumptions is wrong -- as, for example, a large hedge fund did when a multi-billion dollar portfolio shed 14.5% in May 2005, reportedly because of a "flawed model."

A lack of transparency and inadequate regulation, particularly where OTC derivatives are concerned, make it difficult to identify where the dangers lie. Historically, banks, Wall Street firms and hedge funds have been left to their own devices, on the assumption they were sophisticated operators who would act appropriately.

Unfortunately, as the classic example of the "tragedy of the commons" suggests, one firm's self-interested behavior, especially when large amounts of money are involved, is not necessarily in everyone else's interest.

more...

9:39 AM ET 5/5/06 SNOW: CONFIDENT WORKERS WILL SEE LARGER PAYCHECKS

9:39 AM ET 5/5/06 SNOW ON TV: WINDFALL OIL PROFITS TAX A 'BAD IDEA'

will be needed as the buck becomes worthless.

Hopefully, they can just flip to a landscape layout - I'd hate to waste the trees.

I get to pay my debt (school loan etc) in increasingly worthless dollars:woohoo:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-05-05T134444Z_01_N05179907_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FEDFUNDS-PAYROLLS-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, May 5 (Reuters) - Prospects for "one and done" Federal Reserve interest rate increases, as reflected in U.S. short-term rate futures, rose sharply after data on Friday showed a slowdown in jobs creation in April.

Still, many analysts had a more muted response to the data, pointing to a jump in average hourly earnings as offsetting the soft payrolls number.

Futures surged after the Labor Department said 138,000 jobs were created in April, well short of Wall Street forecasts of 200,000. February and March jobs growth was revised lower by a combined 36,000.

Chances for a June rate increase by the Fed fell as low as 30 percent from 48 percent just before the data.

Dealers are still confident the Fed will raise interest rates in May to 5.00 percent, which would be the 16th consecutive increase in a string dating back to June 2004.

"For now we are inclined to view this report -- even though it seems to support our slowdown story -- as a fluke; it is too early to expect payrolls to weaken. But it probably supports the cause of the June pause nonetheless," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

...more...

They go on to say that wage increases are nada - dooda - zilcho - zippo - nothing - a mere 1.4% :eyes:

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/12634432/

Several large Wall Street firms including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are considering following Lehman Brothers' lead by having some of their equity analysts stop issuing public reports on stocks.

Instead, the analysts would directly advise individual clients and in-house traders. Others have rejected such a plan, in part because of regulatory concerns. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are also concerned about the possible regulatory implications and about creating the impression that the switch is simply a way to get around existing rules.

snip>

Current regulations include limits on when analysts can publish reports regarding market-moving news and requirements that analysts simultaneously distribute reports to all clients.

Internal debate on the issue reflects the extent to which Wall Street is struggling to find ways to make research profitable without angering regulators, who recently completed an overhaul of analyst rules.

snip>

Richard Bove, banking analyst at Punk, Ziegel & Co., called Lehman Brothers' move "a neat way to get under the radar in terms of regulation". :eyes:

But he said that if other firms followed Lehman Brothers it could increase market volatility and spark regulatory concern that Wall Street was favouring its wealthiest clients over ordinary investors.

more...

Dow 11,506.67 +67.81 (+0.59%)
Nasdaq 2,335.94 +12.04 (+0.52%)
S&P 500 1,319.26 +7.01 (+0.53%)
10-Yr Bond 5.096 -0.54 (-1.05%)

NYSE Volume 494,639,000
Nasdaq Volume 463,627,000

10:00 am : Stocks are off their opening highs but nine out of ten economic sectors continue to post respectable gains. Energy is pacing the way higher amid a rebound in oil prices as well as strong earnings reports. EOG Resources (EOG 75.47 +4.02) is up 5.6% after more than doubling its Q1 net income while El Paso (EP 14.71 +1.22) is soaring 9% to a new 52-week high after more than tripling Q1 profits. Technology is strong across the board, led by a 0.9% gain in the hardware space, while Financial is benefiting nicely from a decline in borrowing costs and a 2.0% surge in brokerage. Aside from falling bond yields also making dividend-paying utilities stocks more attractive, the sector has garnered additional attention this morning amid speculation that Berkshire Hathaway, which is targeting utilities as potential acquisitions, will announce a major deal at its annual meeting this weekend. DJ30 +62.75 DJUA +1.3% NASDAQ +15.91 SOX +0.5% SP500 +8.05 XOI +0.9% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 699/1815/266 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 539/1989/200 mln

09:40 am : Market opens sharply higher as weaker than expected payrolls data assuage worries that the economy is not growing so fast that the Fed will have to keep aggressively raising rates. Most notably, non-farm payrolls rose a less than expected 138,000, reflecting the slowest pace of job growth in six months and implying that the robust jobs growth in Q1 thus far is not carrying over into Q2. The unemployment rate holding steady at 4.7%, meeting economists' forecasts, has also offered some relief about Fed policy. To wit, the yield on the 10-yr note (+12/32) now stands at 5.09%, off 7 basis points from early highs. Nevertheless, while the lower headline figure is likely to ease fears about economic growth being too strong, the larger than expected 0.5% rise in hourly earnings -- the fastest annual gain since August 2001 -- has pushed the year-over-year gain to 3.8% from 3.5% in March and may put some pressures on businesses to raise prices.DJ30 +74.44 NASDAQ +18.18 SP500 +9.43 NASDAQ Vol 126 mln NYSE Vol 74 mln

and the tune (leaping and hopping) for the morning!

I'm being followed by a moon shadow
moon shadow-moon shadow
leaping and hopping on a moon shadow
moon shadow-moon shadow
and if I ever lose my hands
lose my plough, lose my land
oh, if I ever lose my hands
oh, if...
I won’t have to work no more
and if I ever lose my eyes
If my colours all run dry
yes, if I ever lose my eyes
oh if …
I won't have to cry no more.
yes, I'm being followed by a moon shadow
moon shadow - moon shadow
leaping and hopping on a moon shadow
moon shadow - moon shadow
and if I ever lose my legs
I won't moan and I won't beg
of (oh)* if I ever lose my legs
oh if...
I won't have to walk no more
And if I ever lose my mouth
all my teeth, north and south
yes, if I ever lose my mouth
oh if...
I won't have to talk...
Did it take long to find me
I ask the faithful light
Did it take long to find me
And are you going to stay the night
I'm being followed by a moon shadow
moon shadow - moon shadow
leaping and hopping on a moon shadow
moon shadow - moon shadow
moon shadow - moon shadow
moon shadow - moon shadow

Cat Stevens

http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/article/040520062.html

snip>

The happiness mongers are out in full force. Something must be amiss. Unlike them, we don’t claim to know better than anyone else what the future will bring. Instead, we look to the present and try to see what it has brought already. And what we see is a public as short on worry as it is on cash. And that, dear reader, is precisely why the economic news is so good. Because consumers are spending their fool heads off. People are still buying houses, as Mr Stelzer points out. The GDP is still increasing. Why? Because people are spending money they haven’t earned yet. Worried people don’t do that.

Meanwhile, debt levels are soaring. Bankruptcies are increasing. Inventories of unsold houses are mounting. Even the pawnbrokers report that business is picking up briskly.

And we have to wonder whether Mr Stelzer will turn out to be like the young ship’s officer on the Titanic, who commented – after it hit an iceberg - on how he thought the orchestra never played better. He had not bothered to look below decks.

Naturally, the dollar is sinking. The US deficit has now reached 7% GDP. But that is just more good news in Mr Stelzer’s book. It “will correct the imbalances gradually,” he predicts. As if he knew.

But as the dollar sinks, the price of oil rises. And so do consumers’ costs. Even at today’s prices, according to the TIMES’ man, gasoline is not as expensive, in real terms, as it was three decades ago. Well, that’s a comfort. The poor homeowner can barely make ends meet as it is. Imagine what a fix he will be in when the price of oil goes higher. Even Thomas Friedman at the New York TIMES thinks the biggest challenge facing the US today is oil. But the black goo is way too slippery for a writer as slow and clumsy as Friedman.

more...

how it compares with today:

http://www.sparknotes.com/history/american/depression/section7.rhtml



And is that "Hatch Act" still in effect? Should it not prevent corporate donations when the corporation is getting tax subsidies from the government?

hmmmm....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hatch_Act_of_1939



It appears to still be in effect.

This Act should prevent these corporations that are under government contract from making such large political donations.

It would certainly be nice to see a bunch of civil actions take place :eyes:

There are laws on the books against most of the crap the GOP is doing, but without an ethics committee no one has to worry about them. K-Streeters should all be wearing orange jumpsuits.

On the other hand, over in South Korea Hyundai's chairman embezzled money from Hyundai to create a slush fund and used it, via at least two lobbyists, to seek favors from the government. The two lobbyists are in jail and the chairman is being prosecuted right now.

Dow 11,553.95 +115.09 (+1.01%)
Nasdaq 2,341.03 +17.13 (+0.74%)
S&P 500 1,323.10 +10.85 (+0.83%)
10-Yr Bond 5.119 -0.31 (-0.60%)

NYSE Volume 923,038,000
Nasdaq Volume 825,746,000

11:30 am : Holding steady at sharply higher levels as buying remains widespread across virtually every industry group. Some areas of weakness, however, include Insurance Brokers (-3.7%), which has been the biggest laggard early on following a disappointing Q1 report from Aon Corp (AOC 39.03 -2.76). Photo Products (-2.8%) has turned in the day's second worst performance as the index continues to sell off after Eastman Kodak (EK 26.02 -0.74) posted its sixth straight quarterly loss yesterday. Bargain hunters have stepped back into Health Care Supplies, the year's second worst performing group (-21.8%), as well as Tire & Rubber, which ranks sixth among the worst performers in 2006 (-13.8%).DJ30 +91.13 NASDAQ +13.16 SP500 +8.43 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1122/1700/750 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 864/2193/604 mln

11:00 am : Market continues to put together a solid advance as oil prices recently slipping into negative territory provides some added relief heading into the weekend. Even though the pullback in crude has sidelined some of the Energy sector's early leadership, the Dow Transports have again taken notice, trade at new all-time highs, and are a source of support behind the influential Industrials sector now turning in one of the morning's best performances (+0.7%). Caterpillar (CAT 80.39 +1.58) at a new historic high has also contributed to the sector's ability to extend year-to-date gains beyond 11%. DJ30 +85.97 DJTA +0.7% NASDAQ +13.05 SP500 +8.05 XOI +0.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1108/1649/628 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 819/2149/494 mln

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/MarketReportArticle.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2006-05-05T154843Z_01_L05627976_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-URGENT.XML

PARIS, May 5 (Reuters) - Buzzing merger talk and strong quarterly earnings helped European shares to close at their best level in nearly five years on Friday while a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report quelled worries of new interest rate rises.

Alliance & Leicester (AL.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and ThyssenKrupp (TKAG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) led the market's charge upward, rallying about 7 percent each amid rumours that the latter could be acquired and broken up, and the former taken over by Spanish banking rival Santander (SAN.MC: Quote, Profile, Research) for as much as 6.5 billion pounds ($12 billion).

The pan-European FTSEurofirst index <.FTEU3> of 300 leading shares gained 0.9 percent to finish the day unofficially at 1,398.08 points, ending the week about 1 percent higher.

Twenty Years and US$4 Trillion Later:
New Ernst & Young Report Tracks Transformation of Nonperforming Loan Crisis to Mature Global Investment Market

http://www.ey.com/global/content.nsf/International/REHC_-_Global_Nonperforming_Loan_Report_2006

New York, NY—3 May 2006—A new report released today by Ernst & Young reveals that the total global market for nonperforming loans (NPLs) is in the midst of its hottest of period of transaction activity in the last 20 years—and the market shows little sign of cooling. In fact, with almost three dozen major NPL sales over the last 24 months by German lenders and the expected pick up in NPL sales activity in China over the next year or so, worldwide transaction activity is expected to quicken, leading Ernst & Young to conclude that the NPL market has clearly evolved from a series of regional market opportunities to become a full-fledged, mature global marketplace.

Born out of the collapse and subsequent government-backed rescue of the US Savings and Loan industry in the late 1980s, the burgeoning investment market for packages of nonperforming loans has now almost completely circled the globe with major NPL sales in Asia and Europe over the last few years. According to Ernst & Young, at its peak, the NPL market totaled US$4 trillion, or roughly one and a half times the entire proposed US fiscal budget for 2007.

The global market began to develop when NPLs ballooned dramatically throughout Asia following the 1997 financial crisis there. Today, NPLs are traded in more than a dozen global markets—all of which are profiled and analyzed in Ernst & Young's “Global Nonperforming Loan Report 2006” (pdf, 4.10mb). These include some of the world’s largest economies including Japan, Germany, China, and India.

According to Jack Rodman, one of the primary authors of the report and a veteran advisor on NPL sales in the US, Japan and China, the development of this global multi-trillion dollar market has resulted in a huge learning curve for banks, regulators and investors alike. “A combination of poor lending practices, inadequate regulation and failures to reform banking systems has created huge losses for banks over the last 20 years. We estimate the average recovery of NPLs worldwide to be about 33 cents on the dollar,” says Rodman.

To make matters worse, Rodman says, the economic impact of NPLs created staggering losses for many countries and caused their economies to languish for as long as 10 years. Small wonder, then, that many observers today are concerned about the possibility of large scale loan foreclosures in the US following several years of robust lending activity, particularly in the highly cyclical real estate market.

more...

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/swagell050406.html

snip>

Arthur Levitt, the longest serving Securities and Exchange Commission chairman in history, had this to say in his best-seller “Take on the Street” (Random House 2002):

“The web of dysfunctional relationships among analysts, brokers, and corporations would grow increasingly worse… supposedly independent accounting firms were working hand in glove with corporate clients to water down accounting standards…they were willing accomplices – helping companies disguise the true story behind the numbers.

This unholy alliance was producing revenue for the analyst’s firm but hardly any benefits for most of their clients.”

Doug Wakefield (www.bestmindsinc.com ) believes Levitt speaks “plainly of the culture that surrounds Wall Street. In a word: GREED…” and agrees “with much of Levitt’s assessment of the incestuous relationships that exist throughout much of Wall Street.

If you are concerned by the greed, lack of transparency, and lack of regard for retail investors in the stock market, you are likely to be troubled by the recklessness that exists in our banking system today.”

Meanwhile, Eric Englund (www.lewrockwell.com , publisher of The Hyperinflation Survival Guide) believes “central banking is at the centre of the boom-bust cycle… The hyperreality conjured up by the Federal Reserve’s relentless inflation of the money supply is characterized by a populace which believes that a permanent plateau of prosperity has been attained… people have absolutely no fear of debt.”

snip>

...“Investors seem to be displaying signs of pure fearlessness…they seem more like Wile E. Coyote, running in thin air before looking down and realizing they have nothing to support them, and succumbing to the inevitable gravity check.”

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/au/2006/0502.html

As I noted in an interview with the Wall St. Transcript last fall, the changing of the Fed chairman has been a traumatic event in my lifetime. Black Monday of 1987 happened two months after Alan Greenspan took office. Paul Volcker brought about interest rates near 20% by initiating a policy of monetary control in 1979. Arthur Burns, in 1970, stepped up to the plate right before the 1971 unpegging of the dollar from the gold standard, and its de facto devaluation. (I wasn’t around for the ascension of William McChesney Martin in 1951, but believe even that was eventful.) The one major exception to the rule was the uneventful and largely forgotten 10-month tenure of G. William Miller in 1978-1979, but I expect this transition to represent a more than ten-month appointment, hence the rule, not the exception.

The hallmark of Greenspan’s tenure has been crisis management. He led the way for “circuit breaker” rules after the 1987 crash. He also generated a steep yield curve in the early 1990s that allowed banks and other financial institutions to “clean up” their default-ridden balance sheets by making new loans at record spreads. More recently, he provided liquidity (and confidence) to the markets in the late 1990s in anticipation of a Y2K crisis, and mitigated the 2001 recession by cutting the discount rate to 1.0%.

All this took place at the cost of creating “legacy” issues. These include the twin budget and trade deficits, a housing bubble (which replaced the turn of the century stock market bubble) and an indebted (or indentured) consumer living in what Warren Buffett has termed “a sharecropper society.” Meanwhile, major developing countries like China and India are experiencing massive growing pains that are being aggravated by the unprecedented injection of global liquidity by the American Fed. Even so, Greenspan’s questionable policies have so far been redeemed by masterly execution. My book, A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing opined, “It may have been very success at managing decent sized crises that causes the world to put too much faith in his ability to head off ‘the big one.’” In short, it was the kind of thing that George H.W. Bush (Senior) might have referred to, in one of his more lucid moments, as “voodoo economics.”

snip>

In the Walt Disney movie, Fantasia, the Sorcerer’s Apprentice said the wrong words and opened up the floodgates. I am not at all sure that Greenspan would be able to head off the coming financial storm if he were still in charge. And in my heart of hearts, I do not believe that the Apprentice is up to the job.

bit more...

I'm scary busy again today. But do have a chance to say hi.

Ozy :hi:

1:10
Dow 11,536.99 +98.13 (+0.86%)
Nasdaq 2,335.27 +11.37 (+0.49%)
S&P 500 1,321.35 +9.10 (+0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 51.21 -0.29 (-0.56%)
NYSE Volume 1,285,295,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,161,257,000

1:00 pm : More of the same for stocks as a bullish bias remains intact. As reflected in the A/D line, advancers hold a nearly 3-to-1 advantage over decliners on the NYSE while advancing issues outpace declining issues by an almost 2-to-1 margin. A nearly 3-to-1 ratio of up to down volume at both the Big Board and the Composite, though, paints an even more positive picture of today's broad-based performance.DJ30 +105.60 NASDAQ +13.81 SP500 +9.52 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1016/1914/1.11 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 790/2355/890 mln

12:30 pm : No change to the prevailing trend as the afternoon session gets underway. The Dow continues to lead the charge, as it is up 1.0% on the day and less than 2% away from reaching its all-time closing high of 11,722.98 on January 14, 2000. The S&P 500, albeit also turning in a solid performance (+0.8%), is at its best levels in five years but is a much farther 13% away from hitting its historic high of 1527 on March 24, 2000 that was largely the result of the Tech sector accounting for about 30% of the weighting on the S&P. Tech, which is up about 3% for the year, accounts for nearly half that (15.4%) today.DJ30 +110.30 NASDAQ +16.08 SP500 +10.30 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1025/1873/1.00 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 781/2326/808 mln

http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/companies/display_article.asp?Nav=ns&lvl2=comp&ArticleID=1518-1783_1927598

Washington - The International Monetary Fund took action on Thursday to stave off a cash crisis, having ironically fallen victim to stability and prosperity among its member nations.

The IMF said it would stop paying new money into its reserves, and would transfer the existing reserves of nearly $9bn into a new investment account to generate extra returns on the bond markets.

The global lender's own finances have become strained as more and more clients emerge from years of economic crisis, during which they became reliant on IMF bailouts, to stand on their own feet.

The decision of Argentina and Brazil this year to turn their backs on IMF tutelage, by repaying their multi-billion-dollar loans early, has left the Fund facing an operating shortfall of $110m this fiscal year.

Indonesia and Turkey are also now said to be looking at paying off their IMF debts early.

more...

So the central bankers bank is strapped for cash?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2265648

:popcorn:

1:07 PM ET 5/5/06 WELLS FARGO IS NOTIFYING PEOPLE WHOSE INFO WAS ON COMPUTER

1:06 PM ET 5/5/06 WELLS FARGO: COMPUTER WITH CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION MISSING

1:06 PM ET 5/5/06 WELLS FARGO: COMPUTER MAY HAVE BEEN STOLEN

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BBBDBF410%2DAD05%2D412D%2D9EB7%2D5D3A9C2ADD75%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC 68.60, +0.42, +0.6% ) said Friday a computer that was being transported for its Wells Fargo Home Mortgage division by a shipping company has been reported as missing and may have been stolen. Wells Fargo said there is no indication that information on the computer has been accessed or misused, but said it's notifying people whose information was stored on the equipment by mail. The computer contained confidential information, including names, addresses, Social Security numbers and mortgage loan account numbers, Wells Fargo said.

In early afternoon trading, the Dow climbed 99.49, or 0.87 percent, to 11,538.35, less than 185 points away from its all-time high of 11,722.98, reached Jan. 14, 2000.

Broader stock indicators were higher. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 9.13, or 0.7 percent, at 1,321.38, its highest level since February 2001; the Nasdaq composite index advanced 11.59, or 0.5 percent, to 2,335.49.

Or will the balloon have enough gas left in it to keep the gap open on a Friday?

http://biz.yahoo.com/weekend/sextoy_1.html

Fabled San Francisco co-op Good Vibrations brought 'adult novelties' out of the closet in the 1970s. Now it's ditching its socialist roots to try to grab its share of the billion-dollar industry it spawned.

Late in the afternoon on Valentine's Day, a dozen or so people are milling about a San Francisco Good Vibrations store, 11th-hour shoppers on their way home from work. A woman in hospital scrubs scans neat shelves of female-friendly porn. In a small book section, another woman sets down a bag of groceries to page through 101 Nights of Grrreat Sex. And near the front counter, the clean-cut 20-something dude in a Yankees cap ponders the cheery saleswoman's query. "Mmm hmmmmmm."

The clerk begins an enthusiastic rundown of product features as a male eavesdropper angles in for a closer look at the fuchsia-colored gizmo. A few minutes later, each of the men hits the cash register with the $60 G-Swirl, batteries included. Toting a pretty blue-and-orange gift bag, neither gets so much as a raised eyebrow as he heads out the door and onto the street.

And why would they? Next door to Good Vibrations, in an upscale shopping district near Nob Hill, is a hair salon. Across the street, a Christian Science Reading Room. The general vibe of the place -spacious and clean, under bright lights and filled with colorful displays - hews a lot closer to Pottery Barn these days than the homespun sex-toy retailer it's been in the Bay Area for nearly 30 years. That's all by design, of course. Taking the sleaze out of sex toys

In fact, everything is moving according to a plan as audacious as any in the annals of retail makeover. The former co-op company that pioneered American sex-toy retail in the 1970s is trailblazing again, this time aiming to turn Good Vibrations into a brand as mall-friendly and all-American as Restoration Hardware.

more...

The dollar and housing markets are ready to implode. Job creation sucks. Oil and gas prices are hurting small businesses and consumers. People are spending more than they earn. Yet, the markets are "Oh Happy Days!"

What the hell am I missing? This doesn't make sense.

:shrug:

to the Stock Watch thread:hi: feminazi. We sometimes feel like Diogenes around here. Looking for honest numbers. You are right to think it doesn't make sense.

Dow 11,583.42 +144.56 (+1.26%)
Nasdaq 2,343.61 +19.71 (+0.85%)
S&P 500 1,326.32 +14.07 (+1.07%)
10-Yr Bond 5.112 -0.38 (-0.74%)

NYSE Volume 1,741,904,000
Nsdaq Volume 1,513,607,000

2:30 pm : Major indices trade at fresh session highs as strong industry leadership to the upside continues to bode well for equities. Oil & Gas Storage (+4.6%) remains the best performing industry group, led by El Paso's (EP 15.03 +1.54) strong earnings-induced 11.4% surge. Despite Toll Brothers (TOL 31.04 +1.40) providing the latest sign of a slowing real estate market after reporting that the value of signed contracts in Q2 fell 29%, Homebuilding has found renewed buying interest, turning in the day's third best performance (+3.3%) as strength in the Treasury market lowers the costs of borrowing. Homebuilding is currently the year's fifth worst performing S&P industry group (-15.7%).DJ30 +121.19 NASDAQ +17.08 SP500 +12.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1075/1905/1.41 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 816/2380/1.15 bln

2:00 pm : Sellers remain a reluctant bunch as the market shows no signs of slowing following the weaker than expected payrolls data. However, fewer jobs being added in April has diminished the desire to own U.S. dollars since the jobs report implied that central bankers may not go further than expected with their tightening efforts. The greenback is off more than 1.0% this week against the euro (1.2739), as the ECB recently signaled they will continue to raise rates, but off more than 1.0% on the day against yen (112.41), as it appears more likely that the Fed will soon end nearly two years of rate hikes.DJ30 +116.46 NASDAQ +16.72 SP500 +11.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1058/1914/1.32 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 817/2368/1.06 bln

Closing numbers:

Dow 11,577.74 138.88 (1.21%)
Nasdaq 2,342.57 18.67 (0.80%)
S&P 500 1,325.76 13.51 (1.03%)
10-Yr Bond 5.108% -0.42

Impressive stock numbers, amazing Treasury numbers and gold was up what? Another $5 or so today?

And what did I hear? Soft employment numbers and a huge drop in consumer confidence?

I think I will go drink some wine so I can make better sense of this madness.

Have a great weekend Marketeers! Thanks for yet another great week of financial reporting. :toast:

Julie

Eat drink and be merry for Monday we crash?

That's all I can think of. These numbers are madness.

4:20 pm : Stocks closed at their best levels of the day as equity investors rallied around the possibility that a jobs shortfall may prompt the Fed to end nearly two years of rate hikes sooner than anticipated. Blue chips led the charge as the Dow Industrials surged 1.2% to within 145 points from an all-time closing high of 11,722.98 reached on January 14, 2000; 29 of 30 components closed higher. All ten economic sectors closed in positive territory as the day's broad-based rally also helped lift the S&P 400 MidCap Index and Russell 2000 Small Cap Index to historic highs.

According to the Labor Dept, non-farm payrolls rose a less than expected 138,000 in April, reflecting the smallest gain since October and implying that the robust jobs growth seen in Q1 is not carrying over into Q2. The unemployment rate holding steady at 4.7%, meeting economists' forecasts, also offered some relief about Fed policy. Even though the larger than expected 0.5% rise in hourly earnings -- the fastest annual gain since August 2001 -- pushed the year/year gain to 3.8% and may put some pressures on businesses to raise prices, the market took a bullish cue from bond traders on the inflation front. The yield on the 10-yr note (+10/32) finished at 5.10%, or about 7 basis points lower than the four-year high of 5.17% reached yesterday.

Reports that Warren Buffett may announce a major acquisition at Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting over the weekend also acted as a source of support. To wit, Utilities not only turned positive for the year, surging 2.1% to earn the day's best performance as falling bond yields made the dividend payouts of utilities more attractive, but the sector garnered extra attention since Buffett has done little to hide his partiality for companies like utilities. Such speculation was evidenced by a 3.4% surge in PG & E (PCG 40.80 +1.34), a possible acquisition target cited by The Wall Street Journal.

Another rate-sensitive sector taking advantage of the decline in borrowing costs was Financial, led by a 3.2% surge in Brokerage, while Industrials also posted a gain of more than 1.0% fueled by an intraday all-time high on Caterpillar (CAT 79.98 +1.17) and another historic high on the Dow Transports. Also closing sharply higher was Consumer Discretionary, amid strength in Homebuilding, Computer & Electronic Retail, Home Improvement Retailers, and General Merchandise -- four of the day's top ten performing S&P industry groups.

Even Energy, despite crude oil's inability to recover from its biggest two-day slide (-6.3%) since December 2004, impressively extended its leading year-to-date gain to nearly 17%. El Paso (EP 15.18 +1.69) soaring 12.5% to a new 52-week high after more than tripling Q1 profits and EOG Resources (EOG 76.31 +4.86) surging 6.8% after more than doubling its Q1 net income were noteworthy sources of sector support. BTK +3.2% DJ30 +138.88 DJTA +1.0% DJUA +2.2% DOT +0.2% NASDAQ +18.67 NQ100 +0.8% R2K +0.9% SOX +0.4% SP400 +1.0% SP500 +13.51 XOI +1.0% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1099/1924/1.97 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 850/2415/1.69 bln